Added Pressure.

[powrwrap]

There's no way this year's team will be remotely as bad as last year's in the second half. Absolutely no way. Even if they sell off a bunch of pieces.

I sure hope not. But as of Game 85, with a healthy Mauer and Morneau, this team is worse than last year's team, and this is in a division with a weaker Detroit and Cleveland teams. BTW, my preseason prediction was that the Twins would win 75 games this year.

[gunnarthor]

Depends on how you look at it.

 

After 85 games the Twins are 36-49 and on a pace to win 69 games. Last year after 85 games the Twins were 38-47 and on a pace to win 72 games.

 

In 2011, after 85 games played they had a run differential of -76, this year it's -87.

Well, what you're really arguing isn't that this team is as bad as last year's team but rather is off the pace of last year's team that ended up losing 99 games. Huge difference.

[powrwrap]

Well, what you're really arguing isn't that this team is as bad as last year's team but rather is off the pace of last year's team that ended up losing 99 games. Huge difference.

That's not it at all. The numbers show this team is worse than last year's team, even with Mauer and Morneau being healthy. Their won-loss record is worse and their run differential is worse, ergo, they are a worse team.

[bird]

Highabove, I haven't attacked anyone, or thrown any cheap shots. I've attacked some people's arguments, and I've criticized people in the past who have taken cheap shots at players, managers, management, and owners. On this thread, I've been critical of Jack's arguments, but I did not throw a cheap shot. I did accuse him of throwing one at the Pohlad boys, who I know and respect. My discussion with MWW has been very civil. So I have no idea where you're coming from, but I hope you'll refrain from throwing your own cheap shots, OK?

[gunnarthor]

Bird, you're the one that called Jack a "Pohlad hater" for suggesting the Twins spend money on free agents. No one else has bothered to insult anyone else. Highabove correctly pointed out the Pohlad's history of trying to contract the Twins, that's not a cheap shot. You're the only one in this thread that's making cheap shots and insulting other posters.

[clutterheart]

As my finance prof. used to say, beware the trap of the %. The % is the tool used by underlings to hide bad news.

50% of revenue from the Metrodome was perhaps a million dollars. 50% of revenue from target field might be hundreds of millions of dollars.

 

The root of the problem is they took public money for a stadium. Unfortunately they are using this public asset poorly and have squandered a once in a generation opportunity to build a fan base similar to the way Cleveland did with Jacobs field. To cut payroll with so many gapping holes in their pitching staff was poor management. If they would have built the stadium with their own dollars they could do what they want. But by holding the team hostage and demanding public money, they make themselves a target when they are enriching themselves off a new stadium. So its entirely fair to call the Pohlads a bunch of greedy jerks who got fat by sucking off the public teats.

 

I wish them the best in life, but come on. Spend money and build a pitching staff for crying out loud!

[bird]

I exten d my apologies to any of you who fell like I've cheap-shotted or insulted them. That is not my intention.

[Mike Sixel]

I think bird has been very civil, we just disagree.

 

I agree, they probably will be better, but the contention was that they are better. So far, they are worse, though. I misread your comments on the pitchers, I thought you were asserting that more than a few were a year or so away.

 

I would contend, though, given their record last year and this year, and the fact that they did not spend any money to improve (other than Carroll and Marquis, as the two good signings were just filling holes they created by not spending on Cuddeyer and Kubel) and that there are no number 1-3 pitchers even close, that this team is doomed to have a losing season again next year if it doesn't add legit starting pitchers to this staff. Which I don't think Ryan or Pohlad will do.

[kab21]

I would like to hear some baseball examples where spending took a team out of the cellar. The examples that I think of are the Cubs and Mets which have been awful for years partly due to getting stuck with awful contracts like Bay's and Soriano's That is the result of spending big in FA. Bad teams improve by rebuilding their farm systems which the Twins are doing. They have 4 prospects in the top 75 right now and they will likely end up with 3-4 more in the 75-150. They also spent nearly all of their draft budget which was the largest (or 2nd largest) in the majors and they have spent a lot of money internationally this year (and in past years).

 

I think it's funny how the Wolves were mentioned as an example of a team spending to get better. That's not really true if you follow the Wolves. They have been dreadfully awful for years and for too long they were bringing in mediocre vets on ugly contracts. Finally they figured it out and went nuts slashing payroll to put themselves into a position that they can spend a little now that they have developed a very good young core to build around. I'll repeat that. They were awful, they slashed payroll and waited for a young core to develop. I don't expect the Twins to drastically slash payroll but they need to be very careful committing money long term. signing a bunch of aging vets (a majority of FA's) to somewhat long contracts is not what this team needs. They need to be very careful on any contracts longer than 2 years imo.

[Highabove]

Spending wisely can fill the areas that your Farm system cannot. In years past, the Twins Farm System was producing front line and star players. The Twins did not need a lot of Payroll to Win. Tampa Ray's Fans will never complain about the lack of money their Team spends on starting pitching. The Rays developed one of the premiere staffs in Baseball. The Twins Farm system spit out Liam Hendricks. Up to this year, the Farm System was not developing any power hitters. The Twins spent some money and brought in Willingham.

If the Twins want to be competitive, the Organization must go out and buy what the Farm System is not supplying. It's as simple as that.

At the same time, restock and develop your prospects.

[kab21]

If the Twins want to be competitive, the Organization must go out and buy what the Farm System is not supplying. It's as simple as that.

At the same time, restock and develop your prospects.

This is true when you are a player or two away from being a contender. The Twins are a few players away from being .500 and there isn't that much money available.

[old nurse]

Spending wisely can fill the areas that your Farm system cannot. In years past, the Twins Farm System was producing front line and star players. The Twins did not need a lot of Payroll to Win. Tampa Ray's Fans will never complain about the lack of money their Team spends on starting pitching. The Rays developed one of the premiere staffs in Baseball. The Twins Farm system spit out Liam Hendricks. Up to this year, the Farm System was not developing any power hitters. The Twins spent some money and brought in Willingham.

If the Twins want to be competitive, the Organization must go out and buy what the Farm System is not supplying. It's as simple as that.

At the same time, restock and develop your prospects.

Sadly what the farm system lacks is major league pitching talent. The Twins will not sign a long contract free agent. Morneau's concussion and Mauer's contract will prohibit that. Although they can buy insurance, it is not cheap for pitchers. As many of the people here wish for a big name pitcher, it is highly unlikely unless the Twins overspend. Mauer's contract is why the team will not overspend. A small market team can not have two of those. If the second half Twins offense shows life and consistency the likelihood of a FA pitcher signing a one year contract to get a good contract increases. An Edwin Jackson type will come here to get the numbers to get the big one.

Outfielders would appear to be in the pipeline. Infielders are more a long range question.

[jokin]

Sadly what the farm system lacks is major league pitching talent. The Twins will not sign a long contract free agent. Morneau's concussion and Mauer's contract will prohibit that. Although they can buy insurance, it is not cheap for pitchers. As many of the people here wish for a big name pitcher, it is highly unlikely unless the Twins overspend. Mauer's contract is why the team will not overspend. A small market team can not have two of those. If the second half Twins offense shows life and consistency the likelihood of a FA pitcher signing a one year contract to get a good contract increases. An Edwin Jackson type will come here to get the numbers to get the big one.

Outfielders would appear to be in the pipeline. Infielders are more a long range question.

Careful, you could get hanged in effigy (I have the pseudo neck burns from last April to prove it) for comments such as these. There are certain types here at TD that defend the FO/Field Staff at all costs.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Mike Wants Wins:

 

1. I predict the payroll will not be smaller, on averge,over the next three years. Why? Because the Twins said they'll spend, on average, around 50% of revenue, and I believe them. Looking at one year is disingenuous given that promise, isn't it?

 

2. I base MY belief that the farm system is maybe a top third system talent-wise on the strength primarily found in the lower levels. But I also think you've been mischaracterizing the quality of the higher levels. Yes, they've lacked "impact players" I suppose, depending on your definition. But they have beared fruit: Revere, Plouffe, Dozier, Parmelee, Mastroianni, Hendriks, Oliveros, Diamond, Burnett, DeVries, Manship, Walters, Deduno, Robertson, Fien all played AAA ball this year, did they not? And the numbers at AA this year? Pretty darn good, Mike. Last time I looked, their team ERA was 4th of 12 teams. But whether the system ranks at the 33rd percentile or the 50th percentile, it's significantly better than so many of you choose to believe.

 

3. The team is better in the opinion of many, many qualified people. That is a fact. The record? That's a different fact. It doesn't refute these people's opinions. We can disagree here. But the fact you recite isn't conclsive, and the season is only half over, Mike. Your fact may eventually support these opinions.

 

4. I described a number of pitchers as being "a couple years away". I did not say a year away, or less than a year away, although many, many quaified people would opine that some of them are indeed less than a year away. Gibson, Hendrik, Wimmers, Bromberg, Hermsen, Stuiffbergen, and Darnell would be some that might, yes, might be ready in the next two years. Of course, you can describe all of them as having "low ceilings". Are any of these guys aces? Probably not. But don't miss the point I was making, which is that we are not entering the 1990's, as Jack believes. In addition to those potential starting pitchers, add the following names to the list of prospects we may see stick with the club within the next two years: Gutierrez, Guerra, Oliveros, Robertson, Waldrop, Slama, Parmelee, Hicks, Benson, Herrmann, Tosoni, and Arcia. Many will fail, but some will be "high ceiling, impact players by the definition of a lot of us.

1. I don't think anyone trusts them, and quite frankly, they have no reason not to... though I'll say with Carl now deceased, you do have different people running things. But like others said here. the 50/55% of revenue essentially guarantees ownership a huge raise after getting a public funded stadium. I think they'd have been wise to go all out and make a decent run just to give the fans a ring.

 

2. You are a tad optimistic here. It's a middle of the road system with teh potential to be top 3rd by the end of the season (depending on who they pick up). It's lacking in impact pitching. The hitting prospects are nice enough that I'm pretty excited to see what they have coming up in the 2014/15 timeframe, but there's not much of anything for pitching prospects to help those guys out. Unless something changes, their next contending teams will be pretty flawed.

 

3. You are correct here, this team is much better than last years... they are tolerable to watch and they won't nearly as bad as they were in the 2nd half of last season.

 

4. The problem is that there's little for high ceiling impact players onthe mound... quite a few at the plate, but sans Gibson, there's not much there.... and he's hurt.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I would like to hear some baseball examples where spending took a team out of the cellar. The examples that I think of are the Cubs and Mets which have been awful for years partly due to getting stuck with awful contracts like Bay's and Soriano's That is the result of spending big in FA. Bad teams improve by rebuilding their farm systems which the Twins are doing. They have 4 prospects in the top 75 right now and they will likely end up with 3-4 more in the 75-150. They also spent nearly all of their draft budget which was the largest (or 2nd largest) in the majors and they have spent a lot of money internationally this year (and in past years).

 

I think it's funny how the Wolves were mentioned as an example of a team spending to get better. That's not really true if you follow the Wolves. They have been dreadfully awful for years and for too long they were bringing in mediocre vets on ugly contracts. Finally they figured it out and went nuts slashing payroll to put themselves into a position that they can spend a little now that they have developed a very good young core to build around. I'll repeat that. They were awful, they slashed payroll and waited for a young core to develop. I don't expect the Twins to drastically slash payroll but they need to be very careful committing money long term. signing a bunch of aging vets (a majority of FA's) to somewhat long contracts is not what this team needs. They need to be very careful on any contracts longer than 2 years imo.

 

unless you are the Yankees, you cannot spend your way out of the cellar. Spending has to be targeted and strategic. With the Twins, there's quite a bit of hitting talent in the farm, but next to nothing for pitching. They are going to have to spend their way out of that, whether that's eating bad contracts to aquire good pitching talent or going out in the FA market and bringing in some pitching, but if this team is going to contend at all down the road, it's going to have to do some targeted spending. I'll give them credit from a draft standpoint that they made an attempt to alleviate this, but I'd be willing to bet that this won't solve it. They are going to have to buy pitching... period.

[Badsmerf]

This is true when you are a player or two away from being a contender. The Twins are a few players away from being .500 and there isn't that much money available.

I 100% disagree. The over the last month they have played pretty good baseball, despite their no-name pitching staff. Add in a front line starter and take out (one of) the 5th man and this team wouldn't look too bad. In order to compete they would still need some things to go their way (Diamond's continued success, development of Hendriks, and 2 in-house candidates to work out). I don't think its that far from the realm of possibility. Then, going into 2014, Morneau comes off the books and gives you more flexibility.

 

By 2014 cost controlled regulars could be: Parmelee, Dozier, Plouffe, Revere, Hicks, Arcia, Benson. With Mauer and Willingham on contracts.

 

2014 cost controlled starting pitchers: Diamond, Hendriks, Gibson, De Vries?

 

Not too bad of a core group of players.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I would like to hear some baseball examples where spending took a team out of the cellar. The examples that I think of are the Cubs and Mets which have been awful for years partly due to getting stuck with awful contracts like Bay's and Soriano's That is the result of spending big in FA. Bad teams improve by rebuilding their farm systems which the Twins are doing. They have 4 prospects in the top 75 right now and they will likely end up with 3-4 more in the 75-150. They also spent nearly all of their draft budget which was the largest (or 2nd largest) in the majors and they have spent a lot of money internationally this year (and in past years).

Agreed, which is why I'm more interested in seeing the Twins go after a guy on the level of Edwin Jackson (and maybe take a flyer on another crap pitcher like Marquis) instead of a Zack Greinke. If the team is going to find an ace, it will probably be from within.

 

And if you're an ace short of a playoff team in June, go find one as a rental. The most important part is putting yourself into contention in the first place and that's really hard to do if you put all your eggs into one or two baskets (see Mauer, Joe and Morneau, Justin for examples). If the Twins had signed either one of those guys via free agency, 3/4 of this board would be calling for the front office's heads.

 

Development is the key to winning baseball games over the long haul and the more gambles you take on high-priced free agents, the more risk you take in being a very, very, very bad team for a very, very, very long time (Cubs and Mets, anyone?).

 

If this team had an Edwin Jackson instead of a Jason Marquis out of spring training, there's a damned good chance we're talking about picking up another starter in the next two weeks because the Twins are in the middle of a race for the division. And that's with all their devastating injuries to the pitching staff. Baker was a huge blow (and is basically that Edwin Jackson type guy) and while Pavano isn't very good, he's a lot better than what the Twins have been putting on the mound in the past few months.

[Mike Sixel]

I just don't get how sigining 1-2 legit FAs means you can't also draft and develop well. I just don't see it as either or....but I do see that this minor league system is not going to graduate enough players for this team to be .500 next year either, they need to add 1-2 legit players.

[Fanatic Jack]

Birdwatcher,

 

You do not have to apologize for anything because you did nothing wrong. You actually made some good points even if I disagree with them. The C-H-E-A-P Pohlad comment was not really off track. You will not see him spend money like Wilf, Leipold, or Taylor and this is an undisputed fact. The great and bad things about MLB is there is no salary cap. If the Twins decided to pump up their payroll and pay big money for 2-3 really good pitchers they would be a contender. However, you will NEVER, EVER see them spend the kind of money Wild owner Craig Leipold just did on July 4th. My guess the Pohlad family is more consumed with making money than winning. I guess Detroit fans are happy that Mike IIlich just wants to winbecause he continues to spend big to win a championship for the Red Wings and Tigers. What is so wrong with that?? When your biggest free agent signing EVER is Josh Willingham at 3-years, $21 million there is a problem. Other teams spend money because they are more interested in winning than the money aspect of it.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I guess Detroit fans are happy that Mike IIlich just wants to winbecause he continues to spend big to win a championship for the Red Wings andTigers. What is so wrong with that?? When your biggest free agent signing EVER is Josh Willingham at 3-years,$21 million there is a problem. Otherteams spend money because they are more interested in winning than the moneyaspect of it.

I don't think Mike's baseball track record is anything worth praising. If it didn't work this year, it's certainly not going to work in 2013 or 2014 and it's going to wreck the team for years past that point. The Fielder signing was an awful move. Just awful.

Josh Willingham OPS+: 149

Prince Fielder OPS+: 139

 

By the time Fielder is Willingham's age, he's nothing more than a DH (who is paid $21m a year). By the end of the contract, he's an albatross. Guys that big don't tend to age well, particularly when they're not athletic in their mid-20s.

[Fanatic Jack]

Rocketpig,

 

What happened to the Brewers this season. The Tigers will dominate the second half of the season and go to the World Series. Miguel Carera worked out pretty good.

[Fanatic Jack]

Rocketpig,

 

What happend to the Brewers without Fielder so far this year? The Tigers will still win the divison and beat the Yankees in the playoffs just like in 2007. The Miguel Cabrera contract is working out just fine for the Tigers. Illich is a genius and not afraid to spend.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Rocketpig,

 

What happened to the Brewers this season. The Tigers will dominate the second half of the season and go to the World Series. Miguel Carera worked out pretty good.

What about the Brewers? They took their shot at it last season and failed. I saw it coming a mile away and thought it was sad that the franchise is now basically a wasteland for the next few years.

 

As for the Tigers, they have two shots at this thing. This season (which is going rather badly) and maaaaaybe next year. After that, Miggy and Fielder start to get old. Both are already DH types in their late 20s. What are their early 30s going to look like? And given those contracts, Detroit can't go pick up the infield help they'll need going forward. They won't be able to go pick up another front-end starter. They're completely hamstrung by those contracts. Take a look at the Tigers #5-9 hitters. Try not to laugh too hard at their ridiculously bad production levels.

 

I'm all for spending smart money. I'm not for spending dumb money. Willingham was smart money. Fielder was dumb money.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Rocketpig,

 

What happend to the Brewers without Fielder so far this year? The Tigers will still win the divison and beat the Yankees in the playoffs just like in 2007. The Miguel Cabrera contract is working out just fine for the Tigers. Illich is a genius and not afraid to spend.

Yes, he's an absolute genius who, despite having a payroll much larger than the Twins, has the same number of championships in the past 20 years as the Twins.

 

Of course, the Twins have gone to the playoffs far more often in those 20 years.

[bird]

Fanatic Jack,

 

Thanks for introducing an exceptional forum topic. Oh, and thanks for exonerating me... You too, MWW. The most obvious point of contention we have is this: some observe the Twin's history and conclude that they will never, ever spend satisfactorily to produce a winner. That's a very understandable outlook. I just disagree, for two primary reasons.

 

First, Carl Pohlad is gone, God rest his soul. He was hurt my the way he and his family were treated LEADING UP to his decision to give it up. He saw that his kids and grandkids had to put up with crap. There was internal debate about whether it was worth it to continue ownership even after the contraction crisis passed. Carl's kids and grandkids, some of them anyway, do in fact have a desire to produce a winning team. This notion that they only care about money is antiquated and wrong. And the cheap tag is a harsh one to place on these people. I admit to a bias, in that I know a few of the kids and grandkids, and happen to like and respect some of them.

 

Second, the new revenue stream has not been in place long enough for us to witness any dramatic changes in the W-L column. But good things are happening, and we should start to see the results on the field as early as 2014, and we'll see glimpses (players) of the future next year. They are spending! Sano is an obvious example. They picked up a top five international prospect, and signed Australia's best prospect (a pitcher! a pitcher!).

 

MWW, I totally agree with you that they must find one or two #2-type starters from outside the system for 2013. (Let someone else overspend for Greinke and Hamels please). You think they won't and I think they will. And Jack, I think you believe they should go hogwild and sign Greinke, right? I agree with many others here that that would not be smart money. They can skin the cat without going there.

 

One last point: one would expect an organization drafting in the second half, usually bottom third, of the draft for a decade to have a middle-of-the-road farm system, right? That's about 500 rounds of second-half choices. And they arguably lacked the resources to compete internationally for many of those years. You can count on one hand the number of current aces that were on the board when the Twin's number got called. So it has always bugged me a little bit that, because the system isn't first-rate, that the Twins' scouting, development, coaching, front office, ownership, and peanut vending personnel are all incompetent.

 

Again, great discussion. Thanks.

[Mike Sixel]

I have never called them incompetent, my contention has always been this:

 

If you refuse to sign bigtime free agents or to trade prospect for bigtime legit MLB players in their prime eanring years, you have to be one of the best in the entire league at drafting and developing. If that is your strategy, then you have to follow it. You have to go over slot (in the past) a lot to get great players. You need to sign international guys. You need players to get better and better minor league coaching. You need to trade better than everyone else.

 

but, imo, they have not done that. They have not been one of the best minor league systems, even given their draft position. The Rays kick their butt, even after drafting later as they got better, for example. The Phillies system was loaded, and they dealt for players, and still have some high impact minor leaguers.

 

So, I'd say they have not truly embraced their strategy. And, they have not held anyone accountable for not succeeding with their strategy. And, they've failed to bring in any outside people into leadership roles, to refresh their approach and ideas. They are a classic example of groupthink, and privately held companies that don't bring in outsiders every once in awhile.

 

That all said, I hope birdwatcher is right, and they are different this offseason, but it's hard to imagine, given 30+ years of history (or however long there has been FA) of not signing free agents in their prime earining years from outside their own organization.