First Wave of September Call Ups

[USMCTwin]

I get why people would want him up, but I also understand why they wouldn't call him up. For anyone that thinks the Twins are the only team that would make this decision, Pittsburgh appears to be making the same decision with Tyler Glasnow. He allows more walks than Berrios, but still pretty comparable. Also for what it is worth our GM hasn't stated that Berrios will not be called up.

 

https://www.piratesprospects.com/2015/08/tyler-glasnow-not-in-the-mix-for-a-september-call-up.html/

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=glasno000tyl

[stringer bell]

When the decision was made for Berrios to pitch last night, it meant he wasn't going to be recalled on the first of September. He wouldn't be able to pitch anywhere for the next four days or so. Could they recall him next week or even this weekend? Sure, but at this point he has to be clearly a better option than what else is available because he's not on the 40-man and not served any big league time.

[spinowner]

Regarding Kepler: I think Buxton makes for a good comparison. Both hit well at AA, and neither had ever played at a higher level. Buxton's defense and baserunning are major-league ready, Kepler's are not. Buxton was called up in both instances only because Hicks was on the DL, and there's no similar pressing need now for Kepler because we have plenty of outfielders and first basemen. If Hicks had stayed healthy it's unlikely Buxton would have been promoted to the majors before today. Buxton is rated by everyone to be superior to Kepler and he has struggled at the plate, and I think that it is very unlikely that Kepler would do better. Based on all this, I don't have a problem with leaving Kepler where he is.

[amjgt]

 

Phil Miller is reporting, from a Twins source:

 

 

For those interested in Berrios:  "The 21-year-old Puerto Rican has pitched a career-high 161 innings this season and is not on the 40-man roster, so promoting him would require waiving a player."

 

 

 

Or you could promote Pinto instead of Fryer, then use Fryer's 40-man spot for Berrios.

 

Oh... and the innings were completely controllable. It's not J.O's fault you let it get close to your magical limit.

[USMCTwin]

 

Or you could promote Pinto instead of Fryer, then use Fryer's 40-man spot for Berrios.

 

Oh... and the innings were completely controllable. It's not J.O's fault you let it get close to your magical limit.

 

Pinto has not caught a game since June 9th. Fryer is to be used as a 3rd catcher not a bench bat.

[spinowner]

I don't get the Pinto thing. He's hardly played this year. He's a liability behind the plate compared with any of the other three catchers. He's recovering (and probably not completely recovered) from a brain injury. The best we could hope for with him would be an occasional pinch hitting role, and we have Vargas for that now. Just let him be and hope he's ready to do well in February.

[USAFChief]

 

When the decision was made for Berrios to pitch last night, it meant he wasn't going to be recalled on the first of September. He wouldn't be able to pitch anywhere for the next four days or so. Could they recall him next week or even this weekend? Sure, but at this point he has to be clearly a better option than what else is available because he's not on the 40-man and not served any big league time.

To state the obvious...don't make the decision to have Berrios pitch in Rochester last night.  Problem solved.  He's clearly one of the 15 best healthy pitchers in the org, no?  

 

Really, this traces back to the pretty disastrous decision to have Trevor May make that spot start.  That should've been Berrios, with a decision later to keep one of Berrios/Duffey in the Twins rotation, and the other either back to the Rochester rotation or to the Twins bullpen.

 

But that's water under the bridge, not to mention it's not a reason to compound the mistake by having him continue to burn innings in AAA.

[Monkeypaws]

 

Odds they are this close to the playoffs in 2022 are what? THIS year, they are in contention, that has real value. We have zero idea if that year will matter at all at this point. Berrios is one of the 20 best prospects in baseball, continuing to think he's not ready, I don't get it.......he's ready.

Nobody's saying he's not ready. What we know about the Twins in 2022 is about equal to what we know how Berrios would affect the Twins chances of making the playoffs in 2015, i.e. pure conjecture. He might come up and perform like Sano, or like Buxton. 

 

I do like the odds of that extra year being more valuable than a few starts down the stretch this year.

[John Bonnes]

I'll start with this: I like the callups so far, though there are dangers. For instance, I hope Santana doesn't replace Escobar. Santana is hot as fire right now, but Escobar has earned that spot, IMHO. 

 

As for Berrios - I don't know what to think. ON the one hand, the Red Wings UnMagic number is 3 & 2 for the Division and Wild Card, so it could be that the Twins are waiting for an official clinching of that before they call up JO. After all, you have to think Rochester would squeal pretty loud if the Twins pulled Berrios in what could be an elimination game. 

 

On the other hand, those that can should already be squealing. The Twins just took their top two hitters. It sure seems like they're throwing in the towel.

 

So I guess I would lean towards this meaning the Berrios is not getting a callup. The Twins will let him reach his innings limit and shut him down, at least for a while, which is probably the best thing to do long-term (and maybe even the moral way to treat the kid) but sure smarts for everyone involved right now. 

[amjgt]

 

Pinto has not caught a game since June 9th. Fryer is to be used as a 3rd catcher not a bench bat.

 

Is the 3rd catcher really there to catch? Or he there for total emergencies?

[SwainZag]

 

Is the 3rd catcher really there to catch? Or he there for total emergencies?

 

A 3rd catcher gives the team flexibility with pinch hitting options.  You wouldn't have to see Herrmann or Fryer with a late inning AB because they could be pinch hit for and still have the other on the bench to catch the next inning.

[stringer bell]

 

To state the obvious...don't make the decision to have Berrios pitch in Rochester last night.  Problem solved.  He's clearly one of the 15 best healthy pitchers in the org, no?  

 

Really, this traces back to the pretty disastrous decision to have Trevor May make that spot start.  That should've been Berrios, with a decision later to keep one of Berrios/Duffey in the Twins rotation, and the other either back to the Rochester rotation or to the Twins bullpen.

 

But that's water under the bridge, not to mention it's not a reason to compound the mistake by having him continue to burn innings in AAA.

If Duffey had bombed again, I think May was going to stay in the rotation. He pitched six shutout innings IIRC, so they stuck with him and sent May back to the bully. So going back to what you said, they ruled out Berrios and made the decision between May and Duffey. I thought it was prudent, at that point, to not put Berrios on the 40-man roster for one start. I may have been wr-wr-wr- you know, the opposite of right about that.

 

If the Twins want to secure the wild card, they need a pitching boost. They aren't going to get it from the two relievers they are bringing up. I don't know if it is fair to the young man, but JO Berrios is their best hope for such a boost.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

 

I get why people would want him up, but I also understand why they wouldn't call him up. For anyone that thinks the Twins are the only team that would make this decision, Pittsburgh appears to be making the same decision with Tyler Glasnow. He allows more walks than Berrios, but still pretty comparable. Also for what it is worth our GM hasn't stated that Berrios will not be called up.

 

https://www.piratesprospects.com/2015/08/tyler-glasnow-not-in-the-mix-for-a-september-call-up.html/

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=glasno000tyl

 

This is actually a decent comp. Not close to perfect but somewhere in the ballpark, at least. Biggest differences being control and Berrios has been healthy all year.

 

[sane]

 

"Berrios is one of the 20 best prospects in baseball, continuing to think he's not ready, I don't get it.......he's ready"

 

Buxton is one of the TWO best prospects in baseball.

How ready is HE to hit MLB pitching?

Are you 100% certain?

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

 

If that's really the case he needs to get over it. A good athlete does his or her best no matter what the situation is. Everybody knows he'll be pitching in the majors when the time comes. And the people who know best about when the time is right know more than we do. I'd like to see what he can do in the majors but it's what's best for Berrios, not what's best for the major league team, that matters.

Yes and no. Berrios is not some guy who wandered in off the street. He's a high draft pick. The whole point is for him to pitch in MLB, and he's demonstrated he's ready to do that. And just as important, the Twins need him.

 

In my opinion, calling him up is best for both parties. (Although I note you are one of the posters who think the Twins should have thrown in the towel on 2015  )

 

Do the Twins know what's best for Berrios? Probably, but not necessarily. The Twins operate as a traditional organization with time-tested methods for player development, methods which a lot of progressive organizations seem to have abandoned. Given Berrios made it his stated mission to pitch in MLB by his 21st birthday (May 27th), and given how well he's pitched since then and handled himself, I'd wonder if the right thing would have been to call him up last month. They may yet call him up, so we'll see.

 

In other organizations, you see top prospects making very short starts in Milb in order to conserve energy, and you see 21 year old pitchers contributing in pennant chases, as bullpen or starters. Lance McCullers is a real good example at the moment. Age 21 is not as young as it sounds anymore. So, the disappointment being expressed here is not exactly coming from out of no where.

 

[Mike Sixel]

 

I'll start with this: I like the callups so far, though there are dangers. For instance, I hope Santana doesn't replace Escobar. Santana is hot as fire right now, but Escobar has earned that spot, IMHO. 

 

As for Berrios - I don't know what to think. ON the one hand, the Red Wings UnMagic number is 3 & 2 for the Division and Wild Card, so it could be that the Twins are waiting for an official clinching of that before they call up JO. After all, you have to think Rochester would squeal pretty loud if the Twins pulled Berrios in what could be an elimination game. 

 

On the other hand, those that can should already be squealing. The Twins just took their top two hitters. It sure seems like they're throwing in the towel.

 

So I guess I would lean towards this meaning the Berrios is not getting a callup. The Twins will let him reach his innings limit and shut him down, at least for a while, which is probably the best thing to do long-term (and maybe even the moral way to treat the kid) but sure smarts for everyone involved right now. 

 

There is zero evidence that innings limits matter....it's junk science, this 20% thing. The studies are on the internet. So, no, it isn't "probably the best thing to do long term". It's just not a real thing.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

We'll enjoy that extra year of Berrios in his prime, well worth a start or two at this point.

That's not the trade-off at all.  Seeing Berrios get a start or two (or relief appearance or two) in MLB this this year would only cost a start or two next season.  That's all it takes to find out if Berrios could help us in this pennant race.

 

If it turned out he could help the MLB team and was not fatiguing, and he pitched the rest of the season here, it would probably cost 5-6 starts in 2016 to get that extra year of control, max.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I get why people would want him up, but I also understand why they wouldn't call him up. For anyone that thinks the Twins are the only team that would make this decision, Pittsburgh appears to be making the same decision with Tyler Glasnow. He allows more walks than Berrios, but still pretty comparable.

Glasnow is slightly behind Berrios development path.  He has fewer pro innings than Berrios, hadn't pitched above A ball entering this season, was injured earlier this season, and only has 6 starts so far at AAA (and has yet to pitch beyond 6 innings in any of them).  He might be closer to Berrios circa September 2014 than 2015.

 

It appears Glasnow also has more pitch count restrictions (only 3 times topping 90 pitches this year) than Berrios (who has topped 90 pitches 20 out of 26 starts).

[Shaitan]

 

It's not about the scouts, it's Terry Ryan falling back on his conservative nature.

Kepler doesn't make the team worse btw. He has to be added to the 40 man anyways next year, losing Aaron Thompson now or then is irrelevant.

 

Why isn't this about the scouts? Do you think Terry Ryan is a benevolent dictator who ignores his assistants? Every quote I've ever read from the man suggests his assts have more say than he does.

 

Kepler probably doesn't make the team worse, but he could. If he comes in and plays like Alex Meyer did, that definitely makes them worse. Do I expect that? No. But it could happen.

[Mike Sixel]

So never promote anyone because they might be bad, is that the message?

 

Kepler is on the 40 man, there is no reason not to promote him at some point this year.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Who was dropped from the 40-man roster to add Eric Fryer?

[Boom Boom]

I do like the odds of that extra year being more valuable than a few starts down the stretch this year.

That extra year only matters, though, if the Twins go year-to-year with him rather than sign him to a contract by then. There's also the possibilities that Berrios could be traded or *gasp collectively* flame out.

 

The odds that the extra year will matter by the time it rolls around don't seem that high to me.

[sane]

 

Who was dropped from the 40-man roster to add Eric Fryer?

Nobody announced yet.

[nicksaviking]

 

That extra year only matters, though, if the Twins go year-to-year with him rather than sign him to a contract by then. There's also the possibilities that Berrios could be traded or *gasp collectively* flame out.

The odds that the extra year will matter by the time it rolls around don't seem that high to me.

 

Even if the Twins signed him to an extension down the road, his service time is going to be a factor.  The number of years he would be extended would still be based on the year when he becomes a free agent.  It's not like Ryan and company can sit down with his agent and say we want to buy out two free agent years, but really you guys should only think of it as one because he only played for a month in 2015.  We can't just assume that Berrios and his agent will be willing to be extended to whatever length the Twins would prefer.

 

Not that I don't want him up, I do.  Just saying when he gets called up likely will make a difference down the road.  The Twins can't just erase this decision with an extension, Berrios might not even want one.

[sane]

 

So never promote anyone because they might be bad, is that the message?

 

Kepler is on the 40 man, there is no reason not to promote him at some point this year.

The message is to adjust to the prospect and his situation, based on what your trusted evaluators tell you. And always ignore the blogs!

[nicksaviking]

 

A 3rd catcher gives the team flexibility with pinch hitting options.  You wouldn't have to see Herrmann or Fryer with a late inning AB because they could be pinch hit for and still have the other on the bench to catch the next inning.

 

You still have two catchers though.  A 3rd catcher only comes into play if you have to pinch hit for BOTH of them or they both get injured.

 

The odds of that happening are slim, and even with it, the resulting consequence are so extremely minor it should cause absolutely no consternation; the consequences merely being a choice between A ) letting the 2nd catcher actual bat instead of being pinch hit for, or B ) having a less than ideal catcher (Pinto) for the remaining, and almost surely very minimal, portion of the game.

 

Neither scenario is season shattering and the odds of actually finding your team in that scenario even once in the last month is extremely unlikely.  Meanwhile the odds of actually needing a better offensive bat off of the bench is much higher.

[drjim]

 

There is zero evidence that innings limits matter....it's junk science, this 20% thing. The studies are on the internet. So, no, it isn't "probably the best thing to do long term". It's just not a real thing.

 

Are you referring to more than the study that "disproves" the Verducci effect or is that all? If you are only citing this article (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=19497) you are really misreading the conclusions with a post like that.

 

That study shows that the Verducci effect, in and of itself, is pretty meaningless. Past injuries are most correlated with current injuries. The second most correlated factor for injury to a pitcher (other than previous injury), is increase in pitches from one season to the next - which is a big reason why teams limit innings jumps. It is absolutely not junk science and there is actually evidence, probably from the same studies that you just cited.

 

The Verducci effect is junk but it was never to be taken as gospel as it was more a theory without any statistical evidence beyond some anecdotes, and is not the reason that teams cite 20%. But it was a theory that provided more study that led to more information but nothing conclusive.

 

The other factor, aside from health, is effectiveness. There is a point that pitchers are not as effective, become more fatigued, and become more susceptible to injury. There is a reason that no team, from old school to the most analytically inclined, will let young pitchers take a big jump in innings from year to year.

 

Just because data hasn't been fully collected and proven and full correlation known doesn't mean it isn't there 

[drjim]

 

You still have two catchers though.  A 3rd catcher only comes into play if you have to pinch hit for BOTH of them or they both get injured.

 

The odds of that happening are slim, and even with it, the resulting consequence are so extremely minor it should cause absolutely no consternation; the consequences merely being a choice between A ) letting the 2nd catcher actual bat instead of being pinch hit for, or B ) having a less than ideal catcher (Pinto) for the remaining, and almost surely very minimal, portion of the game.

 

Neither scenario is season shattering and the odds of actually finding your team in that scenario even once in the last month is extremely unlikely.  Meanwhile the odds of actually needing a better offensive bat off of the bench is much higher.

 

Pinto is absolutely not catching again this season. Stop saying this is an option.

 

But absolutely, the rest of your point is valid - and in reality there is nothing preventing Pinto from coming up and providing an additional bat even if Fryer is on the roster, other than the fact that Pinto hasn't really hit since rejoining Rochester.

[SwainZag]

 

You still have two catchers though.  A 3rd catcher only comes into play if you have to pinch hit for BOTH of them or they both get injured.

 

The odds of that happening are slim, and even with it, the resulting consequence are so extremely minor it should cause absolutely no consternation; the consequences merely being a choice between A ) letting the 2nd catcher actual bat instead of being pinch hit for, or B ) having a less than ideal catcher (Pinto) for the remaining, and almost surely very minimal, portion of the game.

 

Neither scenario is season shattering and the odds of actually finding your team in that scenario even once in the last month is extremely unlikely.  Meanwhile the odds of actually needing a better offensive bat off of the bench is much higher.

 

I don't see the harm.  Vargas hits for Zuke in the 7th, we go to extras, Hunter pinch hits for Herrmann in the 10th, and Fryer can catch.  It might not happen, but why not carry that extra C?

 

Calling up Fryer isn't stopping them from calling up an additional bat as well.  For all the talk of bad roster management, NOT having a 3rd catcher in September is just that.

[SwainZag]

 

So never promote anyone because they might be bad, is that the message?

 

Kepler is on the 40 man, there is no reason not to promote him at some point this year.

 

And there's no evidence he won't be called up some point this year.  Just because it's not Sept 1st, doesn't meant it will be never.  I read a post on here regarding his current slump and the AA playoffs are coming up, two fine reasons to keep him down.