Escobar's slash line since the Santana demotion

[TheLeviathan]

Santana deserved some rope, but it shouldn't be as extensive as someone like Rosario because the minor league track record doesn't support the success he had.  If Rosario starts to struggle we have ample evidence to believe he can go back to being a good player.

 

Santana has no such track record.  After he proved to be one of baseball's worst for as long as he had (much like Hicks) it was time to send him down until he cleaned up his game and demonstrated success in the minors.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Another series down and Escobar is still going pretty strong since August 1st:

 

.263 .344 .439 .782

 

Fangraphs now has him at 0.0 fWAR, which is a bit of a feat considering how badly he started the season and how much playing in the OF hurt his numbers, both defensive and position-adjusted offensive numbers.

[bird]

 

At least when Punto was used properly he was valuable: Plus defender at 3 positions (and plus-plus at 3rd), had speed and was a good base stealer, and drew enough walks to maintain a solid OBP for someone with 0 power and marginal ability to hit for average. Santana is a complete liability. 

 

 

Exactly. Unlike Danny Santana, Punto had tangible value, and I think all the talk about Gardy only playing him because of the intangible attributes got way too much traction. And Gardy didn't have Escobar as an alternative/ Gardy may have been guilty of overusing Punto and even liking his "blue collar" baseball skills more than he should have, but he took too much grief IMO. And now, Paulie has a clearly superior option, and we have a smattering of commenters wanting to pin things on Ryan? This is on Paulie, is it not?

[Mike Sixel]

 

Exactly. Unlike Danny Santana, Punto had tangible value, and I think all the talk about Gardy only playing him because of the intangible attributes got way too much traction. And Gardy didn't have Escobar as an alternative/ Gardy may have been guilty of overusing Punto and even liking his "blue collar" baseball skills more than he should have, but he took too much grief IMO. And now, Paulie has a clearly superior option, and we have a smattering of commenters wanting to pin things on Ryan? This is on Paulie, is it not?

 

I'd argue both, but mostly Molitor, yes......some/many have commented on that.

[Jham]

 

I'd argue both, but mostly Molitor, yes......some/many have commented on that.

 

In fairness, I would have certainly expected some regression on BA and OBP.  I would not have expected he'd go from 7 HR to 0.  I would not have expected him to struggle so badly on defense.  I actually called for him to start in center because I thought he was better than Robinson, Schaefer and Hicks.  I thought Escobar deserved the starting shortstop position.  I actually remember there being some disconnect between Gardy and upper management about Santana's usage down the stretch (and not calling up Meyer).  Gardy wanted to continue with Santana in center, Ryan strongly wanted to see Santana go back to short.  I think that partly led to Ryan saying Gardy's job was not in jeopardy in August before firing him after the season.  I think Santana starting at short was a prerequisite for selection of our current manager.  

 

I haven't given up on Santana if he can go back to trying to rip the ball all over the field.  His value will likely be as flexible bench option though.

 

[d-mac]

 

Exactly. Unlike Danny Santana, Punto had tangible value, and I think all the talk about Gardy only playing him because of the intangible attributes got way too much traction. And Gardy didn't have Escobar as an alternative/ Gardy may have been guilty of overusing Punto and even liking his "blue collar" baseball skills more than he should have, but he took too much grief IMO. And now, Paulie has a clearly superior option, and we have a smattering of commenters wanting to pin things on Ryan? This is on Paulie, is it not?

 

Little of column A, little of column B. Molitor didn't put him on the roster, that was Ryan. However, Molitor could have benched him. 

[nicksaviking]

Santana seemed to have been given praise by Molitor in the preseason and unless I'm remembering incorrectly, Molitor flat out said Santana was going to be his starting SS early in spring training, perhaps even before.  So that probably should have tipped of Ryan on how Molitor was going to use him.

 

That being said, while the GM can (and should) remove managerial temptation if he thinks it's for the betterment of the team, I also put much more weight on Molitor for this decision as Escobar was available to him.  Additionally, had Molitor not played Santana and instead made him consistanly ride pine, Ryan also would have had little choice but to demote him simply so he could get his needed developmental playing time.

[SwainZag]

Since Tulo trade:

 

Esco: 74 AB, 8 2B, 3 HR, 9 RBI, .270/ .333/.500 

 

Tulo: 97 AB, 4 2B, 3 HR, 10 RBI, .237/.339/.371

 

Reyes: 97 AB, 5 2B, 1 3B, 2 HR, 9 RBI, .258/.284/.392

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Since Tulo trade:

 

Esco: 74 AB, 8 2B, 3 HR, 9 RBI, .270/ .333/.500 

 

Tulo: 97 AB, 4 2B, 3 HR, 10 RBI, .237/.339/.371

 

Reyes: 97 AB, 5 2B, 1 3B, 2 HR, 9 RBI, .258/.284/.392

 

I'll still bet Tulo is better over the next 2+ years.....but yes, Esco is showing why almost everyone wanted him at SS a couple months ago.....

[TheLeviathan]

 

I'll still bet Tulo is better over the next 2+ years.....but yes, Esco is showing why almost everyone wanted him at SS a couple months ago.....

 

Very likely the case, but it is funny the way it has worked out so far.  I guarantee if Tulo was killing the ball we'd have nearly hourly reminders of that fact.  

[d-mac]

So in 65 PA's in August Escobar has a triple slash of .292/.361/.554 He's cut his K rate to 16.7% and increased his walk rate to 9.7% so far this month. Meanwhile his BABIP for the month is only up to .320, which is lower than his BABIP of .336 and only a little higher than his career BABIP of .309. It seems to me that with regular playing time Eduardo has really made some legit improvements. We should be excited.

 

Edit: And he is only 26. I am confidently going to say that we have found our starting SS. Now all we need is a catcher and a legit bullpen for next year.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Since Tulo trade:

 

Esco: 74 AB, 8 2B, 3 HR, 9 RBI, .270/ .333/.500 

 

Tulo: 97 AB, 4 2B, 3 HR, 10 RBI, .237/.339/.371

No doubt Escobar is our best SS candidate, but it's not really fair to make this comparison after a rare 2 HR game for him -- that's pretty much a selective endpoint to favor him!  His SLG in this time frame jumped 86 points just last night.  And over the last 2 games, his AVG and OBP jumped almost 30 and 20 points, respectively.

 

Santana has a .604 OPS in AAA during this time, that's the comparison I most prefer.  Escobar beats him handily using any endpoints in 2015.

[halfchest]

So to get rid of small sample sizes, what position he was playing etc.  Let's just look at Escobar the last two seasons.  He has received regular playing time both last season and this season, just at different positions this year.

 

2014

.275 .315 .406 .721

 

2015

.253 .294 .419 .712

 

Those are fine for a SS and I believe above average even right?  He's a solid defender as well, grades out above average there too. 

 

So that's two years of stats, no cutting out certain times/dates for whatever reason.  He's under control for the next 3 years and is just now hitting his prime.  Seems like a very good solution now let's hope they just let him play there the rest of this year and next. 

[TheLeviathan]

I don't know what Escobar needs to do for this club to treat him like the starting shortstop, but it's what needs to happen.

 

Could it be as dumb as wanting his versatility on the bench?  I'm at a loss for why it took so long for us to play him more regularly.  (Or why, still, Nunez gets semi-regular chances)

[SirLoin]

Escobar's long term role should be a utility player, however, in the present he provides the most value as the starting SS,  And, if viable options do not present themselves in the off-season, he can adequately fill the role at SS as a stopgap for a full season, or at least until the trade deadline, in 2016.

[SwainZag]

 

No doubt Escobar is our best SS candidate, but it's not really fair to make this comparison after a rare 2 HR game for him -- that's pretty much a selective endpoint to favor him!  His SLG in this time frame jumped 86 points just last night.  And over the last 2 games, his AVG and OBP jumped almost 30 and 20 points, respectively.

 

Santana has a .604 OPS in AAA during this time, that's the comparison I most prefer.  Escobar beats him handily using any endpoints in 2015.

 

Take out Tulo's 1st game as a Jay where he went 3/5, 2 2B, HR, 3 RBI it skews things too

 

I wasn't trying to insinuate that Esco is a better option now or going forward, just thought it was interesting.

[Comrade Bork]

 

 

Escobar's long term role should be a utility player, however, in the present he provides the most value as the starting SS,  And, if viable options do not present themselves in the off-season, he can adequately fill the role at SS as a stopgap for a full season, or at least until the trade deadline, in 2016.

Why does everyone say he should be a utility player? Those numbers are good enough to be a starting shortstop on many teams. I don't care how versatile he is, why would you bench a guy with superior numbers to anyone else in the twins system just so you can have him available to fill other roles.

 

There are so many .250 utility infielders out there, why pigeonhole Escobar into that role? Start him at ss until someone inside the organization Challenges him.

[nicksaviking]

 

Escobar's long term role should be a utility player, however, in the present he provides the most value as the starting SS,  And, if viable options do not present themselves in the off-season, he can adequately fill the role at SS as a stopgap for a full season, or at least until the trade deadline, in 2016.

 

What if the 26-year-old Escobar is secretly the best SS in the organization both now and for the future?  It would be a shame if Goron is never able to live up to his draft position or Polanco never is able to cut it defensively, but Escobar as a starter has been the best SS this team has had since Christian Guzman, who actually, looking back at the stats only once put up an OPS over .700 for the Twins.  We might be looking a gift horse in the mouth while pipe-dreaming for a superstar.

 

On a side note, the Twins initial lack of acceptance of Escobar might have saved them some money.  Had he been a full-time SS the last two years, his 1st year arbitration figure for next year might have gone pretty high considering his position.  If he gets his first arbitration paycheck this year based more on a utility player, the Twins may find themselves with a player who is willing to sign a fairly cheap extension in the future should he prove to be worth it.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Take out Tulo's 1st game as a Jay where he went 3/5, 2 2B, HR, 3 RBI it skews things too

 

I wasn't trying to insinuate that Esco is a better option now or going forward, just thought it was interesting.

Sure, didn't mean to pick on you.  It's just a pet peeve of mine when small sample stat lines are brought up right after a big game/series.

 

Any way you slice it, Escobar certainly looks solid enough at the plate the past 2 years to be a starting shortstop in MLB right now.

[d-mac]

 

So in 65 PA's in August Escobar has a triple slash of .292/.361/.554 He's cut his K rate to 16.7% and increased his walk rate to 9.7% so far this month. Meanwhile his BABIP for the month is only up to .320, which is lower than his BABIP of .336 and only a little higher than his career BABIP of .309. It seems to me that with regular playing time Eduardo has really made some legit improvements. We should be excited.

 

Edit: And he is only 26. I am confidently going to say that we have found our starting SS. Now all we need is a catcher and a legit bullpen for next year.

 

For clarification that BABIP of .336 was last years' not this years.

[d-mac]

 

Escobar's long term role should be a utility player, however, in the present he provides the most value as the starting SS,  And, if viable options do not present themselves in the off-season, he can adequately fill the role at SS as a stopgap for a full season, or at least until the trade deadline, in 2016.

 

Why? He's not a stop gap. He's proven over the past two seasons he's an above average major league shortstop. Just let him ****ing play. Trade for other areas of need. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

On a side note, the Twins initial lack of acceptance of Escobar might have saved them some money.  Had he been a full-time SS the last two years, his 1st year arbitration figure for next year might have gone pretty high considering his position.  If he gets his first arbitration paycheck this year based more on a utility player, the Twins may find themselves with a player who is willing to sign a fairly cheap extension in the future should he prove to be worth it.

Interesting observation.  Just eyeballing last year's arbitration list, Brandon Crawford would have been a comparable in terms of service time and performance to Escobar this winter, and he got $3.18 mil.  I'd guess Escobar will come in at notably less than that (maybe splitting the difference between Crawford and what utility comparable Nunez got last winter, $1.03 mil).

[Otto von Ballpark]

I don't know how this is decided, but perusing the official 25-man active roster this morning, Escobar is still listed as an outfielder:

 

http://twins.mlb.com/team/roster_active.jsp?c_id=min

[stringer bell]

I like Escobar. He plays hard, but with a smile on his face. His numbers are middle of the road, at least. I think I understand why there is reluctance to make him an everyday player.

 

He is an average runner, with average range at a key defensive position. The third baseman of the present doesn't have great range and neither does the third baseman of the future. Santana will provide little extra value on the bases and he'll never be selective or a slugger. So, even at a young age, he's perceived as having reached his ceiling. Add to this the versatility he has provided and I can see why shortstop hasn't been handed to him.

 

Having just said all of that, I think the job should be his until he loses it. He's fine hitting somewhere between 7 and 9, and he provides an occasional offensive spark while playing very dependable defense.

[jimmer]

19 players have played 3B for 800 or more innings this year.

 

Plouffe is 3rd in the majors in RZR (which evaluates range) for 3Bs. Only defensive wizards Machado and Arenado have a better RZR.  Additionally, only two 3Bs in the majors have made more plays outside of zone (again, Machado and Arenado).

 

Plouffe's range is pretty darn impressive.

[TheLeviathan]

Playing Escobar at SS next year is a fine plan, as long as the team goes out and addresses the catching position.  

 

That sinkhole of production (plus our sub-par 1B production) doesn't leave a lot of wiggle room for other positions to slip backwards.  

[Oxtung]

19 players have played 3B for 800 or more innings this year.

 

Plouffe is 3rd in the majors in RZR (which evaluates range) for 3Bs. Only defensive wizards Machado and Arenado have a better RZR. Additionally, only two 3Bs in the majors have made more plays outside of zone (again, Machado and Arenado).

 

Plouffe's range is pretty darn impressive.

How is RZR adjusted to reflect the shifting that Plouffe (and presumably others) are doing? I don't know how the twins compare to other teams but they certainly move Trevor around quite a bit and that could really affect his RZR.

[bird]

 

Little of column A, little of column B. Molitor didn't put him on the roster, that was Ryan. However, Molitor could have benched him. 

 

 

Molitor was a big fan of Santana and wanted him as his opening day shortstop. He said as much and there's no reason to think he was mouthing Ryan's words. Not that it was hugely damaging IMO, but Paulie could've benched him more and earlier in favor of Escobar.

[John Bonnes]

I have become and absolute Escobar bobo, and he becomes something like the 8th example of a time where I blasted Terry Ryan on a trade for a prospect only to later eat my words. In "10 Things I HATE About The Liriano Trade" I wrote:

 

 

 

18. I hate that the Twins acquired a middle infielder that can’t get on base.

19. I hate that the Twins acquired a middle infielder that likely won’t make the top 10 prospects in their own organization.

20. I hate that this trade reinforces that the Twins have failed to develop decent middle infielders – even when they trade for them.

21. I hate that this trade makes me wonder if the Twins inability to develop good middle infielders doesn’t have less to do with their farm system and more to do with their philosophy and scouting.

 

One note on #19: earlier in the story, I described the Twins system as "ravaged" and I was not incorrect. They were really low when I wrote this. 

---

A few other points to make....

 

1) I think we forget exactly how high the Twins and a lot of us were on Santana coming into this season. He wasn't just supposed to be the starting shortstop, he was supposed to be the leadoff hitter. He was fantastic last year and he's 24 years old. It's reasonable after a tough start, to figure he just needed more time. But yes, I was one of the people calling for him to get that time in AAA by the end of May.

 

2) I would have no problem in not doing a single thing to address shortstop this offseason. Escobar starts the year and if Polanco or Santana tear it up, maybe they get a shot, later.

 

3) It will be a long time before I give up on Santana, too. He showed so much athleticism that i think he'll figure out this plate discipline thing. It's just been a crummy year. That happens. 

 

[Jham]

 

Molitor was a big fan of Santana and wanted him as his opening day shortstop. He said as much and there's no reason to think he was mouthing Ryan's words. Not that it was hugely damaging IMO, but Paulie could've benched him more and earlier in favor of Escobar.

 

Ryan publicly backed Gardy last year, then asked for Santana to be moved permanently to short.  Gardy publicly stated Santana in CF and Esco at SS gave them the best chance to win (he finally gave in).  Gardy was then fired.  You may not think there was a connection there, but I do, and I think Molitor was well aware.  Moli's credit, he probably did and said what he had to in order to get the manager position, and got out of it without completely costing the team.  Good finesse.