Article: Frustrating Start To Huge Road Trip

[Seth Stohs]

On Monday night in New York, the Minnesota Twins found another frustrating way to lose to the Yankees. It’s something Twins fans should be used to, but it brings out strong feelings every time. With a tough road trip underway, starting with a tough loss is not what anyone wanted.

 

The Twins find themselves in a battle for two wild card spots. This road trip may go a long ways in determining whether the Twins are contender or pretender.Here is a quick look at how the standings look heading into Tuesday’s games:

 

 

The New York Yankees lead the Blue Jays in the AL East, but many still believe that Toronto could win that division. If that is the case, the Twins are 5.5 games behind the Bronx Bombers. That’s what makes Monday night’s loss so frustrating. It was a winnable game. The Twins scored plenty of runs and they matched the powerful offense of the Yankees.

 

Eduardo Nunez, in this Mike Berardino tout video, shouldered the loss. He said “It’s all on my back. I think I lost the game.”

 

Sure, he had the final play in the game, but there was plenty of blame to go around.

• Kyle Gibson gave up a three-run homer to Brian McCann on an 0-2 pitch in the first. When the Twins fought back and took the lead, Gibson was unable to slow the Yankees offense. He gave up six runs in five innings.
• Ryan O’Rourke, who has been very good against left-handed batters, gave up singles to the two left-handed hitters he faced (admittedly a bloop single and a liner past a drawn-in Trevor Plouffe at third base).
• Brian Duensing got the left-hander he was asked to face on a strikeout, but then gave up a game-tying homer to Carlos Beltran.
• The manager, Paul Molitor, kept giving up outs by sending base stealers. They were successful just twice in five attempts on the night.
• One could question the decision to challenge the Eddie Rosario catch, leaving Alex Rodriguez on first base, rather than Mark Teixeira, or
• The decision to not hold A-Rod on first, allowing him to steal second and score right after that. There was plenty of blame.

ROUGH ROAD AHEAD

 

The Twins have two more games in New York, where they actually have played well in recent years. Then they play four games in Baltimore against an Orioles team that currently holds the second wild card spot. After a day off next Monday, the Twins will play three games in Tampa against the Rays.

 

Then they return home and play the AL West-leading Houston Astros in a three-game series. After a series at Target Field against the White Sox, the Twins travel to Houston for three more games. After that series, a trip to Kaufman Stadium for three games against the Kansas City Royals. The Royals, of course, hold a 12.5 game over the Twins in the AL Central.

 

The Twins have played really well at Target Field yet have completely struggled on the road. Their next nine games are away from Target Field. 18 of their next 24 games are on the road.

 

If they can remain in contention that long, their final 19 games include three against the White Sox, six against the Tigers and six against Cleveland. The only team they play that is currently in a possible playoff position is the Angels, though they have four games at Target Field against them.

 

Considering where the Twins were at the All-Star break (11 games over .500), the second half has been quite frustrating. Considering where the Twins were after one week of the season, we should be thrilled that the Twins are in the position that they are with 44 games to play.

 

Even more important, players like Miguel Sano, Eddie Rosario, Aaron Hicks and Byron Buxton are going to be getting big league at-bats in important situations. It can only help them in the long run. Pitchers like Tyler Duffey, Trevor May and Ryan O’Rourke are getting to pitch in big situations in big ball games.

 

In the last month, many of the veterans have struggled while the young players are doing as much or more than could rightfully be expected. The veterans (hitters, starters and relievers) will need to step up if the team is to remain in contention.

 

The Twins had a frustrating loss in the first of their ten-game road trip against some key competitors in a playoff race. However, they still sit at 59-59 with 44 more games to play. We asked for meaningful games in August and for the first time in five years, we have them.

 

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[h2oface]

"The Manager, Paul Molitor, kept giving up outs by sending base stealers. They were successful just once in four attempts on the night."

 

Actually, 2 for 5, but whose counting............

[Kevin]

 

"The Manager, Paul Molitor, kept giving up outs by sending base stealers. They were successful just once in four attempts on the night."

 

Actually, 2 for 5, but whose counting............

 

[Kevin]

Fixed--Ed.

[Platoon]

Your two thoughts on the younger l players getting experience, and the veterans struggling should be the focus for what remains of the season. I know it's been a long dry spell, and that this opinion is not popular, but they need to keep evaluating, and getting reps for the younger players, with the idea of determining which vets can be packaged with some of the log jammed prospects to get a catcher and a SS who can FIELD! I still think the arms are in the minors to replenish the bull pen, especially if some imagination is used. As for the SP, that's a little tougher. There appear to have been some poor decisions made in the length and amounts of contracts offered to middling vets. It's gonna be hard to get out from under them. As for the season, we can still play "meaningful games". But the focus should be on building a long term competitive team, not squeaking into a one and done WC game.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Your two thoughts on the younger l players getting experience, and the veterans struggling should be the focus for what remains of the season. I know it's been a long dry spell, and that this opinion is not popular, but they need to keep evaluating, and getting reps for the younger players, with the idea of determining which vets can be packaged with some of the log jammed prospects to get a catcher and a SS who can FIELD! I still think the arms are in the minors to replenish the bull pen, especially if some imagination is used. As for the SP, that's a little tougher. There appear to have been some poor decisions made in the length and amounts of contracts offered to middling vets. It's gonna be hard to get out from under them. As for the season, we can still play "meaningful games". But the focus should be on building a long term competitive team, not squeaking into a one and done WC game.

 

They will keep evaluating the young player and those guys will continue to play. No question about it. But, in my opinion, if they are going to the playoffs this year (as long of a shot as it is), I think they're going to have to be led by Mauer, Hunter, Dozier, Plouffe, etc. Sano, Rosario, Hicks, Buxton will all have that opportunity too. It'll be fun to see how everyone responds.

[tobi0040]

 

They will keep evaluating the young player and those guys will continue to play. No question about it. But, in my opinion, if they are going to the playoffs this year (as long of a shot as it is), I think they're going to have to be led by Mauer, Hunter, Dozier, Plouffe, etc. Sano, Rosario, Hicks, Buxton will all have that opportunity too. It'll be fun to see how everyone responds.

 

Hunter's OPS since 6/1 is .644. He has slowed down big time. Not a real shocker there. He is 40.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Hunter's OPS since 6/1 is .644. He has slowed down big time. Not a real shocker there. He is 40.

 

Right, but if he can post a .750 OPS for the final 5-6 weeks playing 4 times a week, that would be great. 

[DaveW]

 

Right, but if he can post a .750 OPS for the final 5-6 weeks playing 4 times a week, that would be great. 

He has a .531 OPS since July 1st even with them playing him less and less. Since August 1st it's even worse at .470. Unfortunately we are seeing the end of Hunter, it was a good run, but these things happen when a player hits 40 these days.

 

I just don't see how the Twins can even hope for him to post a .750 OPS, doing that would be a minor miracle at this stage. Which means the Twins really need to figure out how to fix RF, they have plenty of internal options who deserve a shot (Arcia, Kepler, etc) and there are some guys on the waiver wire currently that could at least fill in, or be a platoon guy etc (Garrett Jones)

Edited August 18, 2015 by DaveW

[tobi0040]

 

Right, but if he can post a .750 OPS for the final 5-6 weeks playing 4 times a week, that would be great. 

 

But we could say the same about anyone stuggling. If they only played way better that would be great.  To me the more important thing is who is more likely to play better over the next five or six weeks.  In that scenario Hunter is rarely used.

[jimmer]

 

He has a .531 OPS since July 1st even with them playing him less and less. Since August 1st it's even worse at .470. Unfortunately we are seeing the end of Hunter, it was a good run, but these things happen when a player hits 40 these days.

 

I just don't see how the Twins can even hope for him to post a .750 OPS, doing that would be a minor miracle at this stage. Which means the Twins really need to figure out how to fix RF, they have plenty of internal options who deserve a shot (Arcia, Kepler, etc) and there are some guys on the waiver wire currently that could at least fill in, or be a platoon guy etc (Garrett Jones)

As long as he's showing the team how to win, doesn't matter what his offensive and defensive contributions are. He was a great pickup and may very well another great signing by TR next year. Because everyone knows it's because of him that we are even close to a playoff spot right now.

[DaveW]

 

He has a .531 OPS since July 1st even with them playing him less and less. Since August 1st it's even worse at .470. Unfortunately we are seeing the end of Hunter, it was a good run, but these things happen when a player hits 40 these days.

 

I just don't see how the Twins can even hope for him to post a .750 OPS, doing that would be a minor miracle at this stage. Which means the Twins really need to figure out how to fix RF, they have plenty of internal options who deserve a shot (Arcia, Kepler, etc) and there are some guys on the waiver wire currently that could at least fill in, or be a platoon guy etc (Garrett Jones)

And a temporary brain lapse made me realize that I forgot Buxton! Who is the most ready of all of the options and the one guy who could jump start this team potentially and get them back on track.

FREE BUXTON!

[Seth Stohs]

 

But we could say the same about anyone stuggling. If they only played way better that would be great.  To me the more important thing is who is more likely to play better over the next five or six weeks.  In that scenario Hunter is rarely used.

 

I believe in track record though. I get that he's 40. I get that he's struggled, but there's still plenty left. Even last night, he crushed a few balls foul. The bat speed is still there, just needs some hits to fall in. That's not to say that he will play well. No way to know that. I don't think we know that Buxton would play well. He didn't in the small sample when he first came up. 

 

Don't get me wrong. I would want to play Buxton over Hunter for the last 6 weeks, but it doesn't guarantee anything. 

[DaveW]

 

 I don't think we know that Buxton would play well. He didn't in the small sample when he first came up. 

 

 

FWIW his MLB OPS though terrible still is 70 points higher than Hunter since August 1st. Equal since the all star break.

 

We of course don't know how Buxton will fare, however I am pretty confident that he wouldn't be any worse at this point, plus you get the added bonus of developing a large part of your future.

[jimmer]

 

FWIW his MLB OPS though terrible still is 70 points higher than Hunter since August 1st. Equal since the all star break.

 

We of course don't know how Buxton will fare, however I am pretty confident that he wouldn't be any worse at this point, plus you get the added bonus of developing a large part of your future.

and you get an upgrade at two defensive positions.

[Willihammer]

I'm also not sure Buxton helps this team. His peripherals in AAA aren't exactly eye popping.

[jimmer]

We are tied for 28th in wRC+ for our OF this year and in the AL, no OF has a lower wRC+. So we can worry abut whether or not Hunter may or may not provide a dental floss thin more offense than Buxton may, or we can improve CF defense some and RF defense a ton by putting Buxton in CF and Hicks in RF.

[Boom Boom]

You missed one other blame candidate-Glen Perkins.

[peterb18]

With all of the position prospects coming up this year and next season, I feel success will still be determined by pitching....as always. Seth, who are the top pitching prospects with a good chance of developing into top-end starters? And will money be a factor in bringing them up because on Nolesco and Santana?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I'm also not sure Buxton helps this team. His peripherals in AAA aren't exactly eye popping.

Neither were Rosario's.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I'm also not sure Buxton helps this team. His peripherals in AAA aren't exactly eye popping.

That tends to happen when guys are seeing the ball and raking. Even the good version of Joe Mauer often saw his discipline drop when he was lining the ball all over the field.

 

Buxton's AAA strikeout rate is pretty much the same as his AA strikeout rate.

[Willihammer]

 

That tends to happen when guys are seeing the ball and raking. Even the good version of Joe Mauer often saw his discipline drop when he was lining the ball all over the field.

 

Buxton's AAA strikeout rate is pretty much the same as his AA strikeout rate.

I would agree if any hits were extra bases. But a .128 ISO combined with .500 BABIP suggests he's getting infield hits or balls are finding holes.

[Old Twins Cap]

Let the record show that the Twins implosion in 2015 started -- started -- with Glen Perkins blowing a couple of games and being generally knocked around by batters, left and right.

 

And it continues.  That's why they aren't going anywhere, no matter what they do on offense, SP or the bullpen.  Perkins' stuff has never been elite and when it's in the middle of the plate, it gets driven hard.

 

Not the end of the world, just the end of playoff hopes.  STill, a much more entertaining team to watch because of Hicks, Dozier, Rosario, Sano and hopefully, Buxton.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I would agree if any hits were extra bases. But a .128 ISO combined with .500 BABIP suggests he's getting infield hits or balls are finding holes.

.128 ISO isn't a slap hitter.  Eddie Rosario had a .137 ISO in AAA this year.

 

According to MILB, Buxton's "GO/AO" ratio is basically the same at AAA as it was at AA this year (0.64 vs 0.58).  2015 comparable on the Twins MLB roster is Dozier at 0.60.

[Willihammer]

 

.128 ISO isn't a slap hitter.  Eddie Rosario had a .137 ISO in AAA this year.

 

According to MILB, Buxton's "GO/AO" ratio is basically the same at AAA as it was at AA this year (0.64 vs 0.58).  2015 comparable on the Twins MLB roster is Dozier at 0.60.

Like I said, not eye popping. Yeah he could come up and succeed like Rosario has. I'd say its more likely he flounders like he did in his first stint. We would be better off with Hunter in that case.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I think it's really unfair to say Buxton floundered in his first stint. He didn't even have 40 PAs. I don't even pay attention to a rookie's performance until he approaches 100 PAs. One bad series to start a career is ~12-14 PAs, or roughly 1/3rd of Buxton's MLB service time.

[Willihammer]

 

I think it's really unfair to say Buxton floundered in his first stint. He didn't even have 40 PAs. I don't even pay attention to a rookie's performance until he approaches 100 PAs. One bad series to start a career is ~12-14 PAs, or roughly 1/3rd of Buxton's MLB service time.

Call it a poorly timed slump then. He did not look good and I would rather roll the dice on a guy who has been a 2-5 Win player for his career, even if he is 40, then a rookie whose AAA peripherals are, at best, okay.

[Willihammer]

If the Twins finish this road trip in a tailspin then I'll join the chorus to see Buxton Polanco and the rest of the kids but for now they are too close to a WC for that IMO.

[tobi0040]

 

I think it's really unfair to say Buxton floundered in his first stint. He didn't even have 40 PAs. I don't even pay attention to a rookie's performance until he approaches 100 PAs. One bad series to start a career is ~12-14 PAs, or roughly 1/3rd of Buxton's MLB service time.

 

In 37 AB, 1 hit is equal to 27 basis points on his BA.  He hit .198.  Two hard hit balls at someone a foot the other way and he is a .250 hitter and nobody says he floundered up here. 

 

I completely agree.

[tobi0040]

 

Call it a poorly timed slump then. He did not look good and I would rather roll the dice on a guy who has been a 2-5 Win player for his career, even if he is 40, then a rookie whose AAA peripherals are, at best, okay.

 

We can't be criticizing Buxton's 37 AB when Hunter has had an OPS in the .540 range the last 24 games. Or a .644 OPS since 6/1. 

Edited August 18, 2015 by tobi0040