Article: Frustrating Start To Huge Road Trip

[d-mac]

 

Neither were Rosario's.

 

Yes, and they still aren't good. Which is why I'm still skeptical of him going forward.

[Thrylos]

I see a picture of the elephant in the room, but unfortunately not a mention...

 

What looks, smells and pitches like an elephant?

 

Perkins' second half numbers: 8.10 ERA 7.80 FIP 2.100 WHIP and here is the kicker:

 

.383/.420/.702 Opponent slash line  (yes, that .702 is SLG and not OPS...)

 

These not only make Matt Capps seem like a Cy Young candidate, but are worse than Tim Stauffer's.  And we all know where we wanted Tim Stauffer to go.   Time for Molitor to find a guy who can close the door, because Perkins cannot really do it any more for some reason and Terry Ryan declined to address the situation and get an effective closer by the deadline.

 

This team is competing, and better be managed as such.

[DaveW]

I'm also not sure Buxton helps this team. His peripherals in AAA aren't exactly eye popping.

yeah I hate that whole .400 + BA

[prouster]

 

I'm also not sure Buxton helps this team. His peripherals in AAA aren't exactly eye popping.

 

Scorching hot taek.

 

This is one of the problems some people demonstrate when it comes to sabermetrics: the analytically minded aren't always so analytical.

 

It's pretty shocking that someone would value Buxton's AAA peripherals over his actual performance. He's absolutely crushing the ball right now, which of course leads to inflated BABIP and reduced walk rates.

 

Yeah, his ISO isn't incredibly high (which isn't to say that it's low), but that's because his batting average is incredibly high. He's slugging .549 for Rochester, which is pretty stinking good. He's also OPSing .993, and his wRC+ is sitting at an irrefutably robust 193. Of course, this is all in an extremely limited sample size, so much of it is noise (although his performance has so far lined up with his track record).

 

It's silly to look at just one or two stats, even if they're "advanced," and claim they describe the whole picture. I really don't get how anyone could look at Buxton's AAA line and assume that somehow he isn't hitting sufficiently well. Sometimes, when trying to figure out what's "really" going on, we can get too bogged down in shoddy analysis and miss out on what is happening right before our eyes.

[Willihammer]

 

It's silly to look at just one or two stats, even if they're "advanced," and claim they describe the whole picture. I really don't get how anyone could look at Buxton's AAA line and assume that somehow he isn't hitting sufficiently well. Sometimes, when trying to figure out what's "really" going on, we can get too bogged down in shoddy analysis and miss out on what is happening right before our eyes.

Are you watching his PAs? Seeing what quality of hits he's getting? I'm not. That's why I look at bb, k, ISO, ISOd because that's the best I can do here in MN. Its possible his .500  BABIP is the product of scorching liners, but not likely. If he were squaring up balls so regularly, he'd probably have more than a handful of XBHs esp. with Buxton's speed.

[prouster]

 

Are you watching his PAs? Seeing what quality of hits he's getting? I'm not. That's why I look at bb, k, ISO, ISOd because that's the best I can do here in MN. Its possible his .500  BABIP is the product of scorching liners, but not likely. If he were squaring up balls so regularly, he'd probably have more than a handful of XBHs esp. with Buxton's speed.

 

No, I haven't watched any at bat that isn't available on the nightly highlights posted to Rochester's website. The stats simply don't support the idea that he's hitting a bunch of doinkers and beating them out on foot. For one thing, he's slugging .549 (before tonight's double). That's borderline elite. His wRC+, which is a weighted measurement of a player's runs produced per at bat adjusted for the league and ballparks that person plays in, is sitting at 193. League average is 100. This means Buxton has been almost 100% better than the average AAA hitter in his first 12 games there. There's nothing to suggest that he isn't murdering the baseball right now. For the record, it's discussions like these that made me wish we had batted ball data available for MiLB. That would clarify a lot.