Offseason Mock Trades

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The only factor that makes this framework of a trade work is that the Twins would be essentially freeing the Padres from $40MM in future salary obligations. 

 

Personally, I think this specific trade would be a huge win for the Padres. They shed Shields' contract (3yrs, $65MM left) and get to buy low on 4 young players, 3 of which still have extremely high ceilings (Meyer, Arcia and Stewart). In exchange, the only player of consequence that they lose is Hedges, who has never really hit and may never hit enough to be an average catcher, even with his elite defensive skills.

Shields is still "a player of consequence" even with that contract.  He's among the league leaders in GS, IP, and K's, and a 3.75 ERA / 3.35 xFIP is nothing to sneeze at.  (He also has an opt-out after 2016, so if he is good next season, SD may actually pay him less than Nolasco's remaining guarantee.)

 

Arcia is out of options and has no place to play in SD.  And SD seems pretty good at developing pitchers and/or attracting FA pitchers, so I am not sure they need pay to stockpile guys like Meyer and Stewart.

 

They are still interesting guys, but it just feels like a video game trade to pile them all together in one deal to get a good player.

[Rosterman]

I don't see anyone knocking on the Twins door for any players not named Perkins, Plouffe at the moment.

 

Gibson could be traded. There might be some interest in Hicks at the moment (moreso than Arcia) and THAT decision ash to be made quickly. He may be betetr than he is this year, but he may regress. Same with Rosario. If you wait a season, he maybe the next Vargas or Santana, both of home are not high on anyone's NEED list. At this point, you could probably egt mroe for Escobar or the Blue Jays Colabello.

 

Man, if someone would make an ofer for Mauer, but who wants hima t first base. Catching he might still garner some value. But at first base with his salary?

 

As a general manager for anotehr team, I am looking at the Twins as being in the predicament of having to move assorted players to free roster space or playing time and will wait them out and see who might be non-tendered (Milone) or removed from the 40-man (Santana, Vargas), or just made available at the end of spring training (Arcia) and offer some low-level prospect with a smidgen of talent who is already blocked in my own organization, or perhaps one of my players out-of-options.

 

It's not that the Twins don't have some good solid players on the roster and 40-man, they just don't have many that aren't replaceable.

 

[Linus]

I'd rather keep Nolasco and his last two years and stash him in the pen.  He's been a disappointment but he only has to be one of our 12-13 best pitchers and its clear the pen needs some help.

 

And is there any way to automatically delete a post that requests a Joe Mauer trade?

[Everyday Eddy]

 

I'd rather keep Nolasco and his last two years and stash him in the pen.  He's been a disappointment but he only has to be one of our 12-13 best pitchers and its clear the pen needs some help.

 

And is there any way to automatically delete a post that requests a Joe Mauer trade?

 

Being this is like the third time someone has said something about this, let me say that I'm new here and I guess I wasn't aware that Joe Mauer is considered taboo.   I was crazy for mentioning a twins starter on a twins forum about twins trades.   Being it's a forum on mock trades (not real life) I didn't realize the atrocity I was committing.  I'm so sorry I mentioned him and I beg for forgiveness.

[RJM96]

Shields is still "a player of consequence" even with that contract. He's among the league leaders in GS, IP, and K's, and a 3.75 ERA / 3.35 xFIP is nothing to sneeze at. (He also has an opt-out after 2016, so if he is good next season, SD may actually pay him less than Nolasco's remaining guarantee.)

 

Arcia is out of options and has no place to play in SD. And SD seems pretty good at developing pitchers and/or attracting FA pitchers, so I am not sure they need pay to stockpile guys like Meyer and Stewart.

 

They are still interesting guys, but it just feels like a video game trade to pile them all together in one deal to get a good player.

This trade was rumored at the deadline. I don't know how it could be considered a video game trade. If you take Liriano and Santana out then you are left with the rumored original proposed deal. Maybe that deal seems more realistic.

[Linus]

 

Being this is like the third time someone has said something about this, let me say that I'm new here and I guess I wasn't aware that Joe Mauer is considered taboo.   I was crazy for mentioning a twins starter on a twins forum about twins trades.   Being it's a forum on mock trades (not real life) I didn't realize the atrocity I was committing.  I'm so sorry I mentioned him and I beg for forgiveness.

Mauer discussion is certainly not taboo as it has constituted about 88% of all the discussion on this site.  What is certain is that Joe has a no-trade clause in his contract and cannot be traded. 

 

For the life of me, I don't understand why this keeps coming up.  BTW: I was referring to another post, not yours.

 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Mauer discussion is certainly not taboo as it has constituted about 88% of all the discussion on this site.  What is certain is that Joe has a no-trade clause in his contract and cannot be traded. 

 

For the life of me, I don't understand why this keeps coming up.  BTW: I was referring to another post, not yours.

 

Pretty much this. Add to it that his contract makes him untradeable. He isn't being cut either, and while I think a lot of people wish he'd move back to catcher, I doubt that happens as well. 

[darin617]

 

Trevor May

The Denard Span trade might have finally have paid off. Well, half of it anyways. May has had a terrific 2015 season following a disappointing 2014. Although bright, his future with the team is unknown as he could be a great bottom of the rotation starter, or dominant setup man. He was moved to the bullpen following the return of Ervin Santana. He could be a great sell high candidate in the coming offseason.

Close but no cigar, Trevor May was part of the Ben Revere trade along with Vance Worley. Nice article but figured I would correct the minor mistake. One last part why was Joe Mauer left off the list? We need to find someone who could play first base and not be a liability in the field and at the plate. Maybe Plouffe could either switch to first or Sano could just play there.

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

Pretty much this. Add to it that his contract makes him untradeable. He isn't being cut either, and while I think a lot of people wish he'd move back to catcher, I doubt that happens as well. 

 

One edit--a no-trade clause does not mean a player cannot be traded, it means he can't be traded without his permission.

 

That being said, I'm not sure why Mauer would grant that permission.  His wife, kids, parents, and home are all in Minnesota.  If he had this burning desire to win, he probably would have requested a trade at some point in the past 4 years.

 

And given his lack of production, and 3 years left on his contract, the only player I could honestly see him being traded for this offseason is Robinson Cano (no thank you).

[markos]

 

Shields is still "a player of consequence" even with that contract.  He's among the league leaders in GS, IP, and K's, and a 3.75 ERA / 3.35 xFIP is nothing to sneeze at.  (He also has an opt-out after 2016, so if he is good next season, SD may actually pay him less than Nolasco's remaining guarantee.)

I guess Shields may still be "a player of consequence" in the sense that he is still an above-replacement player, but in the context of the trade market his value right now is either zero or negative (which was the point that I was trying to get across). He just passed through revocable waivers, so no team was willing to pick him up for free.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/08/players-who-have-cleared-revocable-waivers-2.html

 

Personally, I think it is unlikely that he opts out of his deal. After next year he will be 35, and I just don't think he will be able to find a new deal that will beat the $44MM that will be left on his current deal. As a free agent, he will probably be more in line for the kind of deals that Peavy, Lohse and Hudson have recently signed - ~$12MM AAV over 2-3 years - especially if he gets tagged with a Qualifying Offer. 

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

 

One edit--a no-trade clause does not mean a player cannot be traded, it means he can't be traded without his permission.

 

That being said, I'm not sure why Mauer would grant that permission.  His wife, kids, parents, and home are all in Minnesota.  If he had this burning desire to win, he probably would have requested a trade at some point in the past 4 years.

 

And given his lack of production, and 3 years left on his contract, the only player I could honestly see him being traded for this offseason is Robinson Cano (no thank you).

 

Correction: his wife and kids are in Florida, where Joe chose to move the moment he had more choice of where to live than the chair I'm sitting on.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

This trade was rumored at the deadline. I don't know how it could be considered a video game trade. If you take Liriano and Santana out then you are left with the rumored original proposed deal. Maybe that deal seems more realistic.

I don't recall any "rumors" that were remotely that specific about the Twins and Shields.  A quick search of MLB Trade Rumors yields zero mention of James Shields connected to the Twins, even dating back to last November when Shields was freely available just like Ervin Santana:

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/james-shields

 

Jeremy Nygaard speculated about a possible Shields deal before the deadline and mentioned some of these names, but that was not a "rumor" any more than your speculation here:

 

http://twinsdaily.com/topic/19417-article-they-couldn’t-could-they…/

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

Too much.  And I really don't think much of Plawecki. 

 

I'd trade Buxton for d'Arnaud straight up though, and if the Mets were interested in flipping one of their young starters for any Pitcher in the Twins' 40-man rotation who makes more than league minimum in that trade, I won't say no... 

 

You want to trade Buxton straight up for a guy who will be 27 before next year starts, has never played 130 games in any season, and has a career 100 wRC+ and .708 OPS.  Thank goodness you're not the one making trades.

[RJM96]

I don't recall any "rumors" that were remotely that specific about the Twins and Shields. A quick search of MLB Trade Rumors yields zero mention of James Shields connected to the Twins, even dating back to last November when Shields was freely available just like Ervin Santana:

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/james-shields

 

Jeremy Nygaard speculated about a possible Shields deal before the deadline and mentioned some of these names, but that was not a "rumor" any more than your speculation here:

 

http://twinsdaily.com/topic/19417-article-they-couldn’t-could-they…/

Do you have any trade ideas that you think might actually work? We need a catcher.

[nicksaviking]

One edit--a no-trade clause does not mean a player cannot be traded, it means he can't be traded without his permission..

I had always been under the impression that when we've talked about Joe's no trade clause, we were talking about his OPS. These are two separate things?

[Thrylos]

 

"Sell high."  I'm with you on that.  I would have sold high on Hrbek and Puckett, too.  In the "small market" game that the Twins play in, you can't hold onto players until they are not longer performing at previous levels.  And you can't constantly wring your hands over prospects.

 

I'm not 100% sold on Buxton.  I've always been very cautious when people are screaming "He's a 5 tool player!!!"  There have been, and continue to be, very few authentic 5 tool players.  Buxton, right now, can't hit MLB pitchers.  If he cleans up his mechanics and adds a little muscle, that could really change quickly.

 

Agree, other than the "small market" payroll, which has been the perennial TR excuse.

KC is a much smaller market.  Their payroll is 30-50% higher than the Twins'. 

Unacceptable.

 

And I don't mean go throw money away, (because TR is really good at that in a. extending mediocre players - Capps, Suzuki are the latest examples and b. spendthrifting i.e. spending $45 million a season to get 3 average/above average instead of 2 star players - look at the Twins rotation for example.)

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

Agree, other than the "small market" payroll, which has been the perennial TR excuse.

KC is a much smaller market.  Their payroll is 30-50% higher than the Twins'. 

Unacceptable.

 

And I don't mean go throw money away, (because TR is really good at that in a. extending mediocre players - Capps, Suzuki are the latest examples and b. spendthrifting i.e. spending $45 million a season to get 3 average/above average instead of 2 star players - look at the Twins rotation for example.)

 

According to SI, KC's opening day payroll this year was approximately $112M, while the Twins was approximately $108M (http://www.si.com/mlb/photos/2015/04/06/2015-opening-day-payrolls/17).  Currently, according to spotrac's payroll tracker (http://www.spotrac.com/mlb/payroll/), KC is at $122M, the Twins at $103.  Neither of these is anywhere near the 30 to 50% number you apparently guessed/made up.

[HitInAPinch]

 

Agree, other than the "small market" payroll, which has been the perennial TR excuse.

KC is a much smaller market.  Their payroll is 30-50% higher than the Twins'. 

Unacceptable.

 

And I don't mean go throw money away, (because TR is really good at that in a. extending mediocre players - Capps, Suzuki are the latest examples and b. spendthrifting i.e. spending $45 million a season to get 3 average/above average instead of 2 star players - look at the Twins rotation for example.)

 

Agreed, they are using it as an excuse.  I also keep hearing the Pohlad family saying "We'll spend what ever is needed", but no one taking advantage of that. 

 

However, I doubt the difference between the Twins payroll and KC is that high of a percentage.  And the difference between the two is probably due to an uptick in the limited advertising opportunities available to KC after their recent success.  In the big NY, LA, CHI markets, it's pretty easy to get those ad dollars.  In MN, you actually have to win first. 

[nokomismod]

Our only two "tradable" 27+ old hitting assets are Plouffe and Dozier. I like them both, and everyone likes guys that are producing now, but they are likely peaking. And, we have ready alternatives for them both immediately in Sano and Polanco. 

 

No one every wants to discuss trading Dozier, but I think it should absolutely be an option to consider. He is great and I like him, but he's certainly flawed, and I fear his dead puling ways will only get exposed more and more as he ages. He hits so many "barely cleared" HR's that it could get ugly when he loses 10-15ft/fly ball. He would likely get us the most in a package, and with a decent replacement, it might be what is best in a the right trade.

 

 

Unfortunately there is neither much of need for contending teams at 2B or 3B. The league is swamped with under 25 year old 3B's right now. The only team in need of a good 2B right now is NYA, and they are linked to Kendrick this offseason. They are more likely than to buy the talent than trade for it right now. The teams in most need of 3B are within our own division...that doesn't help.

Plouffe and Dozier will definitely net the most in return and the Twins have options at both positions. I like the idea of Rosario sliding back to 2B if Polanco still has the ability to become a short shop.

[jorgenswest]

If I were the Padres I would stick with Solarte at 3B. Their production at 3B as a team is the same as the Twins this year ranking just above the middle of the league. Solarte is a year younger than Plouffe and has two more years of team control. He is cheaper.

 

The Padres do need a SS. If they want to trade Hedges, they should be trading him for a similarly talented young shortstop. The only guy the Twins have that is close is Polanco. Catchers are in shorter supply than SS and there may be a team that has a better young SS to offer. If they trade Norris, they should be looking for a similarly talented established SS. The Twins don't have any of those.

 

The Padres also have a need for defense in the OF. Hicks for Hedges might work.

 

This is the year to trade Plouffe, but I don't think the Padres should be interested. Their needs at SS and CF are much more glaring and they can't use their best trade asset for a possible marginal upgrade at 3B. They also should not use their best trade chip for a package of flawed players.

 

Polanco for Hedges? Hicks for Hedges? Is either enough? If not, the Padres would be wise to look elsewhere for a better SS or CF rather than take on multiple players unless those multiple players are Hicks and Polanco.

[Thrylos]

 

According to SI, KC's opening day payroll this year was approximately $112M, while the Twins was approximately $108M (http://www.si.com/mlb/photos/2015/04/06/2015-opening-day-payrolls/17).  Currently, according to spotrac's payroll tracker (http://www.spotrac.com/mlb/payroll/), KC is at $122M, the Twins at $103.  Neither of these is anywhere near the 30 to 50% number you apparently guessed/made up.

 

You got the wrong numbers

 

Here:

 

KC now (after the July trades): at $131.3 M

Twins now $107.2 M

 

As is, is at 30%.  Add the $ they did not pay Santana because of doping and the money they got back from insurance for Nolasco, and that number drops under $95 M or so.

 

On those pages, check the estimated payrolls for 2016:  KC is 40% higher than the Twins...

 

I did not make up those numbers, but someone seems to be making up excuses...

 

 

[Eris]

 

Plouffe and Dozier will definitely net the most in return and the Twins have options at both positions. I like the idea of Rosario sliding back to 2B if Polanco still has the ability to become a short shop.

 

I don't like the idea of trading either Plouffe or Dozier.  In addition to being the two (or close to it) most productive players on the team this year.  Both work hard and hustle.  These are the type of individuals that you want to build a team culture around.  This is especially true with the significant number of young prospects that will be one the Twins major league roster in the next year or two.  Character matters.

[darin617]

 

I like this trade. What are the odds that this still happens in the offseason? Who is likely "XXX"?

XXX was Vin Diesel. not a bad movie.

[darin617]

 

Minnesota receives:

SP James Shields
C Austin Hedges
OF Rymer Liriano

San Diego receives:

SP Ricky Nolasco
RP Alex Meyer
OF Oswaldo Arcia
SP Kohl Stewart
SS Danny Santana

Does this trade go through? Who needs to be added or subtracted for this deal to happen?

 

Shields can opt out after 2016 but I doubt he would since he is going to be making like $21M per year. just a thought, we trade for him and he has a great year and we get burned.

[BoomBoom]

Brewers - Lucroy and Segeura and Kris Davis

 

Twins -  Duffy - Meyers - Walker - Arcia - Burdi - Turner

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

You got the wrong numbers

 

Here:

 

KC now (after the July trades): at $131.3 M

Twins now $107.2 M

 

As is, is at 30%.  Add the $ they did not pay Santana because of doping and the money they got back from insurance for Nolasco, and that number drops under $95 M or so.

 

On those pages, check the estimated payrolls for 2016:  KC is 40% higher than the Twins...

 

I did not make up those numbers, but someone seems to be making up excuses...

 

Wow, there are so many things wrong with your post, it's hard to know where to start.  Here goes;

 

30% of 107.2M is 32.16M.  For the Royals to have a payroll 30% higher than the Twins, their payroll would need to be 139.36M, far higher than their b-ref number of 131.3M.  The real number is 22.5% higher--please review basic math before attempting to make these kind of statements.

 

Next, we're not talking about what teams pay, we're talking about what the payroll is.  When the Twins signed Nolasco, they didn't know he'd be injured, and they would claim insurance.  When they signed Santana they didn't know he'd be suspended and they'd save money there, so that's a ridiculous statement on your part.

 

Further, your numbers for next year are also off.  If we assume that KC exercises all their options, their ESTIMATED payroll next year is 141.2M, while the Twins is 107.8M.  Revisiting that pesky math again, a payroll 40% higher than the Twins would be 150.9M--the Royals payroll is actually "only" 31% higher.  However, it's unlikely the Royals will exercise all their options; do you think they'll pay Alex Rios 12.5M?  Do you think they're going to give Jeremy Guthrie 10M?  I think they don't, so if you assume they pay maybe 10M to replace those two guys, the KC payroll next year is under 130, and the differential is actually only 20%.

 

Finally, payroll on it's own doesn't guarantee success.  Let's say the Twins this offseason sign Plouffe to a 6 year, 80M deal, bring back Boyer for 2 and 6M, sign Gibson to a 4 and 40 deal, and trade Trevor May and Polanco to the Padres for Shields.  That would put our payroll around the 145M mark, and higher than KC's--do you think any of those moves makes us better than KC, or even better than we've been this year?

 

Now, if you want to start using accurate numbers, and logic, I welcome your replies.  Otherwise, go away.

[BoomBoom]

Brewers - Lucroy and Segeura and Kris Davis

 

Twins -  Duffy - Kepler - Arcia - Burdi - Turner

Any better

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

Any interest in buying low on Starlin Castro? Or does everyone agree with Theo Espstein and the Cubs that he's cooked?

[nicksaviking]

 

Any interest in buying low on Starlin Castro? Or does everyone agree with Theo Espstein and the Cubs that he's cooked?

 

I'm not sure that he's cooked, but I'm pretty sure that this team could not handle another un-cuttable 4 year albatross contract if he is.  I've said it before, it's not the money that's the issue, it's the length of the contracts and the roster spots they are taking up that is the problem.  The team needs more flexibility with all the young guys they need to audition.

[lukeduke1980]

I think the Brewers are a good candidate but not for a Blockbuster - Arcia for Will Smith?