Twins Should Call Up & Platoon Kepler NOW.

[Winston Smith]

At this point the ship has sailed, imo. The Twins have played at a .428 clip since June 1st and if that pace continues they'll finish 78-84.

 

Terry has been asleep at the wheel now for over a month and he let the season slip away. He has had a lot of time to do something to fix at least some of the Twins holes and he hasn't.

[DocBauer]

Great and interesting post/debate. And refreshing that I can read something other than; "the sky is falling, the sky is falling, Twins suck after all, the sky is falling, Terry Ryan should be placed in a helmet, driven in a short bus, placed in a straight jacket, and burned at the stake because....the sky is falling."

 

(Heavy...refreshing breath and deep sigh of clean air)

 

*I appreciate that Robinson is a "gamer". I adore those guys and teams in all sports need them. He might be a great guy. I feel very much for him and his family having a tough year in regard to his child. And the Twins DO NOT have to turn their back on him, and his, by replacing him. Honestly, he's a AAAA, ML 5th OF. He should have already been replaced a few weeks ago though with....

 

** Arcia. Despite frustration with him, he remains young and talented. Despite his recent slump, up until a week ago, he was hitting well. I believe a message has been delivered, and I'm not sure remaining in milb purgatory any longer will have any additional affect. Not only could the Twins really use his LH bat, but I still believe there are teams other than the Twins who are intrigued by his potential. (He's frustrating, but the talent is there, it's real) But how can you really show him off for potential trade value, if that's what you choose, until you get him back up the the majors?

 

Further, while his defense may never be good, it wasn't bad, for whatever reason, the last half of '15. He seemed to work harder, he has a quality arm, and silly as it sounds, I maintain 2steps to his right and 1 step back back him a much, much better defensive OF.

 

*** HUGE fan and believer in Kepler. You never known until you see it happen, but I believed he is about to explode. Yes, be even better than he has already shown. There is more power coming. I have he and Berrios as borderline untouchable. Despite what he has shown this season, despite my belief in him, I would promote Arcia first, for all the listed reasons. But I would move Kepler up to Rochester yesterday. And I believe he may have been promoted the day before that if not for a slight injury tweak. The fact that he isn't already there TODAY must be gross negligence, OR, someone just temporarily misplaced his bus ticket and he will be there tomorrow.

 

OF COURSE, he comes up in September. I'd love to see him play a little winter ball as well. I honestly believe he will be part of the Twins OF in 2016, immediately, or early, possibly as a full time starter, possibly as part of a 4 or potentially 5 man rotation through the OF and DH, (who knows, maybe some 1B tossed in) that could be absolutely filled with talent, possibilities and production.

[DaveW]

At this point I think they have to try something outside the box, I am all for calling up Kepler to try to jumpstart something while the Twins are still in striking distance.

[Danchat]

 

The Blue Jays dumped Danny Valencia after all of their trade deadline acquisitions and the Athletics quickly claimed him. He's hitting .296 avg this year (.279 vs righties .316 vs lefties). He is also batting .500 with the bases loaded this year. He wasn't just a back up at 3rd base, he was playing the outfield and filling in at other infield positions.

 

I'm not upset that the Twins didn't claim him. In fact, I'm not even suggesting that the Twins should have seriously considered claiming him. That's none of my business. However, how cool would it have been if Valencia gets cut Sunday night, wakes up Monday morning, drives to the Rogers center, puts on a Twins Jersey (again) and proceeds to take out his frustrations on David Price?

 

Not sayin', just sayin'.

The A's claimed him. Since they have a bad record, they were able to claim him before the Twins got a chance.

 

I would have recommended the Twins pick him up, but I doubt they would have. I think I remember Valencia not being liked by the players/coaches.

[Reider]

 

The A's claimed him. Since they have a bad record, they were able to claim him before the Twins got a chance.

 

I would have recommended the Twins pick him up, but I doubt they would have. I think I remember Valencia not being liked by the players/coaches.

Yeah, I know the A's snapped him up quickly, but I didn't know they had an opportunity to claim him before the Twins, so thanks for pointing that part out. Also, I wasn't aware that he was not liked in the Twins clubhouse. That also changes things and that's really too bad if true.

 

I just can't help but think, when Robinson, Fryer etc.. step up to the plate vs. the Blue Jays how nice it would be to have a guy like Valencia up there instead. Someone who has some MLB experience, is a former Twin, has a respectable batting average, and has the ability to hit it over the fence.

 

Based on Valencia's posts on twitter, it seemed like he was quite upset about getting cut from a playoff contender. I couldn't help but think of how cool it would have been for him to wake up the next morning, drive to the Rogers center, put on a Twins jersey again, and help the Twins battle for a playoff spot.

 

Oh well, it wasn't meant to be, it's not the end of the world.

 

 

[nicksaviking]

 

Arcia brings nothing to the table but his bat,

 

That's a pretty big nothing.  It's basically the point of the game and the reason many of us would prefer to see him.

[nytwinsfan]

 

 

Kepler won't do much against mlb pitching, and Arcia brings nothing to the table but his bat, and I would bet on the production of the majority of the season over a brief hot streak a couple of weeks ago.

 

I just don't understand what you base this on. A 22 year-old obliterating AA pitching with average to above average corner outfield defense is not something that happens all the time. And unlike certain other prospects who have struggled at the major league level after killing AA and AAA (Arcia, Santana, Vargas), Kepler has always had great BB and K rates. He is not going to come up and strike out 30% of the time for two months. Might he struggle a little at the beginning? Of course, that happens with a lot of prospects. But he also might excel right away from the beginning.  But the point is that right now Hicks is not hitting well at all against RHP. He just isn't. In fact, his numbers are miserable against RHP. Kepler is a clear upgrade. And unlike Arcia (who would also be much better against RHP than Hicks), Kepler isn't a liability on defense.

 

I'm not sure Kepler would outperform Robinson and Max is not a centerfielder so that's a non-issue.

 

 

Yeah, but Hicks and Rosario are CF, and by all accounts Kepler can handle CF in a pinch just fine. You really don't think Kepler would outperform Robinson on offense? Are you serious? Sure, you can never be "sure" as in 100% sure of anything. But based on his performance and K/BB rates the last 600 PAs, it seems exceedingly likely.

 

[jorgenswest]

It is so difficult to hit major league pitching. I think it is more likely that Arcia will do better against lefties than Kepler right now. Kepler's numbers looks so good and they are so good. Buxton's did also but his strike out rate doubled in the majors. Chattanooga also boosts offense and run scoring. Kepler has the better glove in LF but reports of a weak arm make RF a questionable fit. Rosario is better in LF also. Arcia needs to come up and start playing for Torii against most right handed pitching today.

 

The Twins have a spot. The 5th starter is not needed for 10 days. I would be encouraged if any of Kepler, Buxton and Arcia were called up in place of Duffey. If I had to predict who is more likely to contribute against right handed pitching over the next few weeks. I would go with Arcia.

[Shane Wahl]

Thinking REALLY outside of the box says: call both of them up. Pinch hit for Suzuki/Fryer and Escobar/Nunez every game. Rotate guys in and out. Have a full team for once.

[BoomBoom]

I think that Kepler deserves a September Call Up, but I don't know how much a .330 BA - .400 OBP - 48 RBI - 6 HR player jump starts an offense.  He doesn't score a lot or drive in many runs despite getting on base alot.  I think Kepler will continue to hit at the MLB level, but not enough to cure the Twins problems.  Arcia can be that game changer where as Kepler is not.  Twins need to score runs.  Kepler needs people of similar skill sets around him to help this offense.  Arcia doesn't.

 

I again believe Kepler could be as effective as Robinson or Rosario, but he is not the answer to our run scoring woes.  The fact that we do not have more than 1 player batting over .280 is the problem.  Kepler batting .300 is not going to change this offense.

 

 Answer - Several good hitters or a Few prolific HR hitters - One of each is not the answer

 

Right now we don't have either.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Kepler strikes me a bit like Hicks circa 2012 -- a good but not dominant hitter, who has taken some time to adjust to new levels (although he's taken pretty quickly to AA).  Not the kind of guy I'd necessarily skip a level to rush to MLB.

 

Perhaps a midseason promotion to AAA would have been warranted, though, so we wouldn't have to skip him a level to give him a September call-up, or if we need him coming out of spring training next year.

[Mike Sixel]

Scoring and driving in runs are about other players.........if a player hits well, then he's valuable. Put a guy with a .400 OBP into this lineup, you have made a huge improvement. It's not even a question, really. I doubt he's a .400 OBP player, btw.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Yeah, but Hicks and Rosario are CF, and by all accounts Kepler can handle CF in a pinch just fine. You really don't think Kepler would outperform Robinson on offense? Are you serious? Sure, you can never be "sure" as in 100% sure of anything. But based on his performance and K/BB rates the last 600 PAs, it seems exceedingly likely.

Remember, remember, the Hicks of... 2013.

 

Damn, that doesn't rhyme.

 

Anyway, I think it's very possible Kepler could outperform Robinson with the stick but Sugar Shane has slightly above average defensive ability, which we can't assume Max will bring to the table (though he's reportedly a pretty decent fielder).

 

What I do know is Oswaldo Arcia will outperform Robinson with the stick and by a considerable margin (100+ OPS points). That was my point. It wasn't a knock on Kepler at all, just a concern that he's not ready for The Show quite yet. He doesn't strike me as the type of player to successfully make the jump from AA to MLB without some hiccups along the way.

 

Also, putting Kepler in a platoon is a waste of the guy's ability (when he's ready, that is). The guy has no discernible platoon split. When he gets the call, he needs to play every day.

 

Double also, it's incredibly rare and pretty amazing for a lefty hitter to have no discernible platoon split.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Kepler strikes me a bit like Hicks circa 2012 -- a good but not dominant hitter, who has taken some time to adjust to new levels (although he's taken pretty quickly to AA).  Not the kind of guy I'd necessarily skip a level to rush to MLB.

 

Perhaps a midseason promotion to AAA would have been warranted, though, so we wouldn't have to skip him a level to give him a September call-up, or if we need him coming out of spring training next year.

 

Not me, Hicks' success was always driven by walks and passivity. Kepler has a .540 SLG. They couldn't be more different, at that age, imo.

 

I have no idea if he's ready for the majors or not, but I also don't think he's like Hicks at all......

[Shane Wahl]

Also, J.R. Graham needs to "get an injury" for the sake of the team and for not having to trade a Tapia-esque player just keep this below-mediocrity around.

[tobi0040]

 

Also, J.R. Graham needs to "get an injury" for the sake of the team and for not having to trade a Tapia-esque player just keep this below-mediocrity around.

 

With the pen being a huge question mark in April and now all year, the Graham experience has been another real mind boggling move.  Is the upside here worth the pen issues it has caused all year?

 

Where were the experiments from 2011 to 2014 when they would have been warranted?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

With the pen being a huge question mark in April and now all year, the Graham experience has been another real mind boggling move.

I don't think the Graham situation is mind-boggling at all. Every team needs a long man and if the Twins want to stash a Rule V guy as their long man, that's not a terrible solution.

 

It's everything else about the bullpen that drives me insane. Stashing one Rule V guy is not the Twins' problem... In fact, Graham has been entirely serviceable out of the pen this season. The problem is stashing a Rule V guy in the pen and then filling 2-4 other slots with horrible pitchers.

[nytwinsfan]

 

Kepler strikes me a bit like Hicks circa 2012 -- a good but not dominant hitter, who has taken some time to adjust to new levels (although he's taken pretty quickly to AA).  Not the kind of guy I'd necessarily skip a level to rush to MLB.

 

Perhaps a midseason promotion to AAA would have been warranted, though, so we wouldn't have to skip him a level to give him a September call-up, or if we need him coming out of spring training next year.

Well, your gut feeling is wrong. That's why I wrote this post with stats and analysis.  Kepler is very little like Hicks. Hicks is a switch hitter whose strong side is from the right against LHP. He has (as you said) often taken time to dominate a level, has great BB%, but unlike Kepler has mediocre K%. He has also had troubles with passivity at the plate and frequently has retooled his swing. He has also had trouble focusing and mentally adjusting. Kepler is a pure lefty, with both good BB% and low K% rates. His problem has been injuries which have hampered his ability to adjust in 2013 and 2014. While Hicks hit an impressive .286/.384/.460 (.840) in AA as a 22-yo, Kepler, also a 22-yo is hitting an outrageous 330/.412/.540 (.952). By all accounts Kepler has great makeup and has never had problems focusing, feeling confident, or giving 100% on every play (not knocking Hicks personally -- that happens for some people, but it is an issue Hicks has had to work through).  But even if they were similar players in terms of stat profile, comparing them to argue Kepler should not be promoted would be a bad idea. A anecdotal sample size of 1 is a horrible horrible basis to make a decision like this one. Many prospects with Hicks and many prospects with Kepler's profile come up and succeed, and others do not. There are no sure things. But my belief that Kepler would hit better than a .600 OPS against RHP is much more likely than that Hicks will all of a sudden improve his OPS against RHP by 100 points or more.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Not me, Hicks' success was always driven by walks and passivity. Kepler has a .540 SLG. They couldn't be more different, at that age, imo.

 

I have no idea if he's ready for the majors or not, but I also don't think he's like Hicks at all......

Actually, Kepler's SLG is largely driven by his high batting average and doubles/triples.  His HR rate is lower than Hicks' at AA at the same age.

 

I don't think they are particularly similar as players, but I think they are similar in that neither has shown either the dominance of Sano or the consistency of young Mauer that would suggest skipping AAA is a good idea.  They can both still be very good MLB players, but don't strike me as the kind that can be rushed.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Well, your gut feeling is wrong. That's why I wrote this post with stats and analysis.  Kepler is very little like Hicks.

See my post above.  I thought I made it clear the context of how I see them as similar.  It's about similar development paths, NOT the kind of hitters/players they are.

[jimbo92107]

 

How about both Arcia and Kepler?

 

Cut Robinson and Boyer. Not that hard......not even close.

True. The Twins really need both guys. Oswaldo Arcia can bat behind Miguel Sano against RH pitchers, and Max Kepler can sub for either Aaron Hicks or Joe Mauer, and be available for pinch hitting and pinch running.

 

The strongest argument for calling up Kepler is when you compare him to Shane Robinson. Despite being a young rookie, Kepler looks like he'd be a distinct upgrade in every aspect, except possibly arm strength. Otherwise, Kepler is bigger, faster, stronger and a much better hitter than Robinson. With 10 triples and 16 stolen bases in 88 games this season, Kepler clearly has the edge over Robinson in speed and power hitting. The one intangible is baseball savvy, where doubtless Robinson has the edge. However, savvy doesn't get enough hits to sway the balance.

 

Meanwhile, everybody here is a bit puzzled by the Oswaldo Arcia situation, but we all know what he can do at the plate. So do major league pitchers, and that's the most important factor, because right now nobody batting behind Sano is scary enough to make them stop pitching around him. Sano has showed admirable restraint by taking walks, but then there's nobody behind him to cash in on those walks. Torii Hunter and Trevor Plouffe have tried, but the fear factor just isn't there. Power hitters in the Twins system are scarce, so Arcia right now is the only option to fill that gap. Who knows if and when Kennys Vargas will be back, and literally no other power hitter is on the horizon in the Twins system. It's either Arcia, or no change.

[Mike Sixel]

I'm not arguing over skipping AAA or not, he should have been in AAA a month ago......but he's not for some bizarre world reason where they don't put hitters in AAA, but insist every pitcher go there for months at a time.....

[Shane Wahl]

 

I don't think the Graham situation is mind-boggling at all. Every team needs a long man and if the Twins want to stash a Rule V guy as their long man, that's not a terrible solution.

 

It's everything else about the bullpen that drives me insane. Stashing one Rule V guy is not the Twins' problem... In fact, Graham has been entirely serviceable out of the pen this season. The problem is stashing a Rule V guy in the pen and then filling 2-4 other slots with horrible pitchers.

 

That's fine, initially. But given the rest of the bullpen, an easy move to make to get someone else into the bullpen (even Tonkin) could happen, and someone else can take over the long relief role (Duffey, for instance at the moment).

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I'm not arguing over skipping AAA or not, he should have been in AAA a month ago......but he's not for some bizarre world reason where they don't put hitters in AAA, but insist every pitcher go there for months at a time.....

I don't buy that he should be in AAA today, much less a month ago.

 

We often criticize the Twins for paying too much attention to traditional stats at the detriment of underlying stats that tell another story.

 

Max Kepler's BABIP is .373 in AA.

 

The prudent move is to keep him at that level and see how he performs once that number normalizes, otherwise you risk promoting a guy who might struggle at his current level with normalized luck, much less a higher level with increased competition.

 

[Mike Sixel]

What if is stays that high all year? Just sit on him? Next year, can you promote him if he never had it drop in AA, or does it need to drop next year, and we wait some more?

 

I understand wanting him to work through a struggle, but there is a point where that logic breaks down, what's that point for you?

[Shane Wahl]

Hicks, Dozier, Mauer, Sano, Arcia, Plouffe, Rosario, Suzuki, Polanco/Escobar

 

Escobar/Polanco, Kepler, Hunter, Fryer

 

There you have it--the best 11 ( and with Escobar and Fryer as necessary components). Mix and match, give rest, etc. Give us a few games of Sano at third, Arcia at DH, Polanco at SS and an OF of Rosario-Hicks-Kepler to see what the future might look like.

 

Kepler is the only one of the young guys who benefits from further development (AAA, though), but there might be some development to be had as a 1/3-time starter on an MLB playoff-contending team.

 

 

[OldTimeTwinkie]

Had the opportunity to watch Kepler in the AFL which I would argue has more talent than AAA baseball. We had Buxton, Rosario and Kepler as position players there. Based on that league I would have ranked them Kepler 1 Rosario 2 and Buxton 3 for hitting. All three of them defensively were good.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I don't buy that he should be in AAA today, much less a month ago.

 

We often criticize the Twins for paying too much attention to traditional stats at the detriment of underlying stats that tell another story.

 

Max Kepler's BABIP is .373 in AA.

 

The prudent move is to keep him at that level and see how he performs once that number normalizes, otherwise you risk promoting a guy who might struggle at his current level with normalized luck, much less a higher level with increased competition.

Brock, that's not an absurdly high BABIP, and Kepler's good performance extends well beyond his slash line.  He's walking almost as much as he's striking out, for instance.  Drop his BABIP 40 points if you want, but what does that do?  Takes away 8 hits, mostly singles?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I'm not arguing over skipping AAA or not, he should have been in AAA a month ago.....

Yeah, I agree.  And I mentioned it somewhere above.  Kepler should be in AAA already, so that skipping a level isn't an issue.

[Jham]

Wow, is Kepler a better hitter than Buxton?  Just asking.