a few random thoughts

[DaveW]

They aren't going to get much talent in a return for a pelf trade.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

A 1,000 times NO.  He gets TRADED.  His contract is up at the end of the year and the Twins are in desperate need of talent.

The only downside of keeping Mike Pelfrey is that he consumes a roster spot.

 

Trading Mike Pelfrey should be a non-issue to a contending team unless they need to clear roster space.

 

Letting Mike Pelfrey walk after the season is complete is akin to walking past a nickel laying on the street because you're in a hurry. It has no real impact on the overall health of the franchise and five minutes after he's gone, you've entirely forgotten about him.

[HitInAPinch]

 

The only downside of keeping Mike Pelfrey is that he consumes a roster spot.

 

Trading Mike Pelfrey should be a non-issue to a contending team unless they need to clear roster space.

 

Letting Mike Pelfrey walk after the season is complete is akin to walking past a nickel laying on the street because you're in a hurry. It has no real impact on the overall health of the franchise and five minutes after he's gone, you've entirely forgotten about him.

However, it does cleanup a needed position in the rotation (May, minor leaguer, whatever ). Trade Pelfrey while ( if ) he has some value to contending teams would help stock the minor league teams.  So I'd say you're walking of a dime, maybe even a quarter

[goulik]

Excellent post and points Chief. I agree with everything you said as far as this year goes and that is why I have no problem giving Duffey Milones spot in the rotation this year. We do need to learn what we have in Duffey.

I also agree with all the responses saying May needs to be stretched out and put back in the rotation next spring and that is the only thing I disagree with you on. Relievers are inexpensive and we need to sign them this off season and cut bait with some as well.

As for Ryan and his skill set, I had some additional thoughts. At my church I have taken on several leadership roles at various times. I have learned that I am a good at some things and not at others. Good leaders recognise what They are good at and what They are not. It is vitally important to find people to fill those gaps in your skill sets. No great leader does it alone. All great leaders know what and when to delegate certain roles. I believe We will see in the next year if Ryan is able to put the finishing touches on this rebuild. Hopefully, if he is not the man to finish it, he either hires an assistant or steps down.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

However, it does cleanup a needed position in the rotation (May, minor leaguer, whatever ). Trade Pelfrey while ( if ) he has some value to contending teams would help stock the minor league teams.  So I'd say you're walking of a dime, maybe even a quarter

At that point, it makes more sense to move Pelfrey into the bullpen and not trade him away.

 

While I'm not in love with the idea of Mike pitching relief innings, he's a competent pitcher, a label that doesn't apply to a significant portion of the Twins pen.

[DocBauer]

Random Thoughts?

 

OK, bullpen, this year and next.

 

May should never have been taken out of the rotation in the first place, and should most definitely be inserted back now. I don't buy the whole "he's not stretched out at this point" arguement. He was a month ago. The Twins have an EIGHT MAN BULLPEN right now right? How many starts before he's stretched back out? Two? Three? With all due respect to Duffey, who I think is a very solid prospect, who I hope does well, May has proven a hell of a lot more at this point as aML starter. And Duffy's stuff and past experience would make him a solid candidate for work as a reliever.

 

Mostly love what Molitor has done this season, though I have questioned a few roster moves here and there. This one I really don't get.

 

Despite taking the loss the other night, Jepsen is helpful. Fien getting healthy, or confident, or whatever, and just throwing like he normally does, helps a ton. Graham has really surprised and may have a real future. Boyer is still OK for lower leverage, middle innings, at least for now.

 

We're better from the port side lately wit Duensing doing better and O'Rourke doing well.

 

Next year?

 

One major FA signing from the RH side. It's necessary and will be done. Jepsen, possibly Fien as well, give really nice depth. From there? Graham, Duffey, Pressly, Tonking, Achter and Oliveros all competing for what might be a single open spot.

 

Duensing's tenure may finally be over. But LHRP and quality are tough to find. A failed LHSP or fading one that can be converted? The Twins have done it before and done so wit much success. That would leave Rogers, O'Rourke, Thompson all fighting for a second LH spot. (Did I miss anyone)

 

I think the pen potential in '16 bodes well with that one single, quality move. ($5-6M ?) A second really makes things work. (Too many milb relievers too far away at this point despite potential)

 

For the rest of this year? We're not great, but we are better.

[DaveW]

 

At that point, it makes more sense to move Pelfrey into the bullpen and not trade him away.

 

While I'm not in love with the idea of Mike pitching relief innings, he's a competent pitcher, a label that doesn't apply to a significant portion of the Twins pen.

I have been saying all year and still maintain he would actually be a pretty good 8th inning guy out of the pen, he could dial up his fastball to 97/98 and with a little movement could carve himself out a nice career in the pen. I would prefer they test him out now, and decide if he is worth keeping around next year for a bullpen role as well.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I have been saying all year and still maintain he would actually be a pretty good 8th inning guy out of the pen, he could dial up his fastball to 97/98 and with a little movement could carve himself out a nice career in the pen. I would prefer they test him out now, and decide if he is worth keeping around next year for a bullpen role as well.

That's why I didn't hate Pelfrey on the roster to open the season. He has a chance to become a decent, though unimpressive, bullpen arm. I don't know if he misses more bats because he can dial it up a bit in the pen but at the very least, he's not worse than Boyer or some of the other junk that has occupied bullpen spots for the Twins this season.

[spinowner]

 

The only downside of keeping Mike Pelfrey is that he consumes a roster spot.

 

Trading Mike Pelfrey should be a non-issue to a contending team unless they need to clear roster space.

 

Letting Mike Pelfrey walk after the season is complete is akin to walking past a nickel laying on the street because you're in a hurry. It has no real impact on the overall health of the franchise and five minutes after he's gone, you've entirely forgotten about him.

I'd still rather have the nickel. It doesn't happen often, but every now and then a low-level prospect acquired in such a trade can blossom. And I think that by the time the Aug 31 waiver deadline rolls around the Twins will find that they won't need him for September and he'll be traded.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I'd still rather have the nickel. It doesn't happen often, but every now and then a low-level prospect acquired in such a trade can blossom. And I think that by the time the Aug 31 waiver deadline rolls around the Twins will find that they won't need him for September and he'll be traded.

The Twins are somehow still in a playoff spot. I'm not sure how that happened but it's the reality of the situation.

 

Teams in playoff contention should not care about nickels on the ground.

[spinowner]

 

...he could dial up his fastball to 97/98...

That's a very optimistic projection.

[USAFChief]

 

The Twins are somehow still in a playoff spot. I'm not sure how that happened but it's the reality of the situation.

 

Teams in playoff contention should not care about nickels on the ground.

Thank you.

 

The entire "well, yeah, the Twins are in contention NOW, but they won't be and shouldn't act as if they will be" is maddening to me, in the extreme.

 

Acually, maddening isn't a strong enough word.

 

 

[nicksaviking]

 

Right but the point is more that when there are elements to something Ryan doesn't enjoy, we see a lot less quality work done on his part. The Torii/Johan non-negotiations hurt this team and so does is passive attitude towards trading.

I don't need a gunslinger, but I sure don't want the guy hiding behind the hay wagon either.

 

I'm not so sure he's the guy hiding behind the hay wagon so much as the guy who brought a knife to the gunfight.

 

I just don't think he's playing by the same guidebook as everyone esle at this time.  That can either be really adventageous, or really put you behind the rest of the players.

[freshinthehouse]

I do agree with the need for another middle of the order bat.  I think Dozier and Sano make a good 3 and 4, but we desperately need impact bats after that.  I still have hope that either Arcia or Vargas can become an .800+ OPS fixture at DH.  

 

It would be huge for the Twins if Hicks can keep up this pace b/c I think he is playing himself into being on hell of a trade chip.  He would be servicable as a corner OFer, but I think to maximize his value he needs to play in CFer.  Hopefully some team agrees with that and we can either move him for an upgrade at catcher or a plus corner OF bat.  I still hold out hope that one of Kepler or Walker will be a fixture in left while Rosario becomes a jack of all trades type 4th OFer.  I also think it will be huge for the Twins if Sano proves to be a legit defensive 3rd basemen, freeing Plouffe up for a trade.

[nicksaviking]

 

They aren't going to get much talent in a return for a pelf trade.

 

Unless you count Berrios or May.  I think their development is pretty key to this club being actual competitors in the future.

 

I'm also starting to worry that if Pelfrey keeps up his current production, he will be the first player the Twins offer a QO to.  They may do so thinking that a guy with 180+ innings and a 3.60ish ERA would certainly decline it looking for a multi-year deal, as afterall, the Twins certainly would offer one if not for their current stable of veteran starters.  Of course the rest of the league and his agent would look at the deeper stats and lack of strikeouts and know he couldn't de better on the open market and he'd be the first player to ever accept.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Thank you.

 

The entire "well, yeah, the Twins are in contention NOW, but they won't be and shouldn't act as if they will be" is maddening to me, in the extreme.

 

Acually, maddening isn't a strong enough word.

I don't understand kicking the can down the road, either. I believe the Twins should still be in a cautious phase (as in, don't go all-in) but given the depth of this farm system, we shouldn't be concerned about losing minor prospects to improve today's MLB team.

 

The Jepsen move doesn't really upset me, what upsets me is the return of Jepsen and that it was the only move made at the deadline. At the very least, Ryan shouldn't have balked at giving up another Hu-level (or lesser) prospect for another bullpen arm. Jepsen helps shore up a team problem but the problem is bigger than one person.

[birddog]

With regards to trade value for Pelfrey, remember we got a fairly high prospect for Drew Butera. We have to find out in August and September what our top prospects can do so put  Pelf on the shelf. I would like to think this team can stay in the race for the wild card, but I don't think we have the horses to do it so let TR find out what he has and he can make the right deals in the offseason.

[nokomismod]

 

A 1,000 times NO.  He gets TRADED.  His contract is up at the end of the year and the Twins are in desperate need of talent.

Pelfrey isn't a big problem for this team right now and I wouldn't mind if he and Milone were both signed for next year as well. If Berrios and May continue to develop Pelfrey could move to the bullpen, but after 4 years it's nice to actually have some capable pitchers.

[nokomismod]

_{Getting some more productive bats has to be the highest priority in the next 6 months. Thank goodness for Sano and you have to think he would have been ready early last season if it hadn't been for the elbow injury.}

_{Dozier and Plouffe are both good players, but neither of them are ever going to have a high OBP guys. Would you consider trading Dozier or Plouffe in the offseason for a big return? How big would it have to be?}

[freshinthehouse]

 

_{Getting some more productive bats has to be the highest priority in the next 6 months. Thank goodness for Sano and you have to think he would have been ready early last season if it hadn't been for the elbow injury.}

_{Dozier and Plouffe are both good players, but neither of them are ever going to have a high OBP guys. Would you consider trading Dozier or Plouffe in the offseason for a big return? How big would it have to be?}

 

I would definitely entertain trading Plouffe.  I would only trade Dozier if we got a king's ransom for him AND you are sure that Polonco could be a decent bat and above average glove at the MLB level.

[Brock Beauchamp]

There is no good reason to trade Dozier. None.

 

This team shouldn't even consider punting at positions of strength right now because there are still very few of them.

[nokomismod]

I agree with you on both counts (freshinthehouse). Polonco did not look fluid at all while playing SS for two games, but he should be able to hand 2b. Rosario could always slide back to 2b and I'm guessing he would be a + defender there as well.

[Mike Sixel]

What? Trade their one certain good player? Awful idea. Just awful.

 

Want to improve the team?

 

1. Get Buxton back, move Hicks to RF, cut Hunter.

2. Cut Mauer, move Sano to 1B.

3. Call up Arcia to take Hunter's spot on the team.

4. Cut Boyer, call up Vargas to DH. Or Walker. Or Kepler. Or Polance if you are so sure his bat is ready.

5. Move May back to the rotation.

6. Move Milone to the bullpen when he is healthy

 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I don't believe Levi is talking about signing Torii or Johan. I think he's talking about not taking action on them and when things were coming to a head, retiring and leaving Bill Smith in a difficult situation.

To be fair, it wasn't that difficult of a situation.  If Smith had been paying attention to TR's work the previous few years, he would have realized there was no shame in keeping a quality player on your contending team and getting the compensation draft picks.

 

The mistake wasn't taking action on Torii and Johan earlier; the mistake was panicking when Torii left and Johan was a year away from leaving, and thinking that Delmon + Gomez circa 2008 was a substitute worth its high price (Garza + Bartlett + Santana - comp picks).  Nothing in TR's record says he would make or even recommend those moves.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The Jepsen move doesn't really upset me, what upsets me is the return of Jepsen and that it was the only move made at the deadline. At the very least, Ryan shouldn't have balked at giving up another Hu-level (or lesser) prospect for another bullpen arm. Jepsen helps shore up a team problem but the problem is bigger than one person.

Yup.  Heck, if TR had been aggressive enough to secure another (better?) reliever first, Tampa probably wouldn't have had the leverage to even demand a Hu-level prospect for Jepsen in the waning hours of the deadline.

 

There's no way that penny-pinching Tampa, with several much better/younger bullpen arms in place, should have had the leverage advantage when shopping an older/declining reliever due ~$5 mil in arbitration this winter.  But it appears that they did with the Twins on July 31st, such was the state of our bullpen.

[stringer bell]

Regarding May--if the Twins want him in the bullpen until we know how the season will end, I am okay with it. It may or may not be the best utilization of resources for the pitching staff.

 

Ryan-very conservative in making trades. I think he overvalues prospects. His best moves have been picking good players from other teams before they become stars--Nathan, Liriano etc. To my knowledge, the Twins don't ever pay to take players off their hands, as many other teams do.

 

I don't have a problem with Shane Robinson on the roster. I do have a problem when he starts games because he's the only option when Torii needs a day off. There should be a 7-man 'pen and another position player on the bench.

[Kwak]

 

To be fair, it wasn't that difficult of a situation.  If Smith had been paying attention to TR's work the previous few years, he would have realized there was no shame in keeping a quality player on your contending team and getting the compensation draft picks.

 

The mistake wasn't taking action on Torii and Johan earlier; the mistake was panicking when Torii left and Johan was a year away from leaving, and thinking that Delmon + Gomez circa 2008 was a substitute worth its high price (Garza + Bartlett + Santana - comp picks).  Nothing in TR's record says he would make or even recommend those moves.

No!  The mistake was not accepting that '06 was no longer, that the Twins were a mid-market team, and were owned by Carl Pohlad.  Johan Santana and Hunter (after his '07 option was exercised) should have been traded before the '07 season started--and procured the ransom that is normally reaped (back then) by trading top players.

[nicksaviking]

 

Pelfrey isn't a big problem for this team right now and I wouldn't mind if he and Milone were both signed for next year as well. If Berrios and May continue to develop Pelfrey could move to the bullpen, but after 4 years it's nice to actually have some capable pitchers.

 

Pelfrey made a stink about being moved to the pen when he was under contract.  How do you think he'd react at the negotiating table?

 

Also, Milone is Twins property until 2019 unless traded or released.  Let's hope the Twins will be able to trade him this off-season.  A lat strain isn't too serious so he should be able to come back this year.  I hope he doesn't though, as I'd guess coming off of an injury, his trade value (which isn't high to begin with) is more likely to go down than up.

[Mike Sixel]

The Twins have May, Berrios, Duffey, Rogers.......and Nolasco.

 

On what planet is signing Pelfrey a good idea?

 

Berrios is a high upside guy, he should be here now, getting MLB exposure, and maybe helping them in winning some games. Instead, they go with someone else, who should be third in line to replace someone right now.

[dxpavelka]

 

Firing Terry Ryan solves pretty much every one of these issues.

or not