a few random thoughts

[mudcat14]

Tulo would have been a great #3 hitter behind Dozier & Mauer and ahead of Sano.

[drjim]

 

Ryan's aversions to contracts and trading make hi. Well suited to an assistant role but not as the primary GM, IMO.

 

I'm pretty sure GMs don't really negotiate contracts. And I'm skeptical of how much of the nitty gritty trade talks they do either.

 

Seems like negotiations generally get close to decided by assistants and the GM makes the final push/decision.

[drjim]

On the Mauer point, I think the Twins would move him out of the #3 hole if they had a reasonable replacement.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Tulo would have been a great #3 hitter behind Dozier & Mauer and ahead of Sano.

In hindsight I wonder if Polanco or Santana either of them, wouldn't have been more valuable to Colorado than Reyes and his sloppy glove and big salary. Oh well, water under the bridge.

[drjim]

On the bigger trade point - I think Ryan doesn't make a lot of trades and is hesitant to do the small incremental trades or engage in much arbitrage, but his total volume of trades is probably representative of many GMs, especially GMs of teams that have been in place for a while.

 

I think a lot of teams are way conservative when it comes to trades, so the few that are active stand out more.

[USAFChief]

On the Mauer point, I think the Twins would move him out of the #3 hole if they had a reasonable replacement.

I hope so, but I wonder. Let's hope we find out.

[DocBauer]

Going all the way back to McPhail, the Twins, and Ryan, as an organization, have made the majority of their trades in the offseason. They build their team, run with it, making internal tweaks throughout the year.

 

The trade for Stewart a few years back was an abnornality, but one that wirked. A couple decades before that was the move for Niekro. (Mixed results)

 

This lineup changes when Buxton can claim the leadoff spot. When that happens, Dozier is in the mix for anywhere from 2-5. I like 4 or 5 w Sano if a couple other things fall in place. Plouffe, a better Rosario and Kepler make me feel a lot better as well in the lineup construction and depth. Nice thing is, all of this can start taking shape as early as '16, with a possible preview this September.

 

In regard to May, with all the complaining about not developing young SP, and how bad the rotation has been up until this year, how can anyone not believe May belongs in the rotation? He pretty much lead the team in every peripheral before the pen move, was getting better and better, and has a bright future. You only put him in the pen if he fails as a starter, or you legitimately have 5 better starters.

[spinowner]

 

2.  For as weak as the bullpen is, I've come to the conclusion the Twins biggest need going forward is a middle of the order hitter.  

 

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/3/17/795946/optimizing-your-lineup-by

 

The takeaway from this is as follows:

 

Here's how the lineup spots rank in the importance of avoiding outs:

#1, #4, #2, #5, #3, #6, #7, #8, #9

 

This would mean your #3 hitter should be the player most teams now probably put at #5 or #6. I have no idea if any manager or coach has ever put this to extended use but it would be an interesting experiment. I'm surprised the stat-heads here haven't investigated and reported on this. Or maybe they have somewhere in the archives.

 

To address Chief's thought, of course any team would like a 2009 Joe Mauer or a 2006 Justin Morneau in an important spot in the batting order, whatever spot that happens to be. But pitching is now and ever shall be the most important aspect of the game. The best pitchers can shut down the best hitters. The 2006 Twins went 69-33 over their last 102 games. The main reasons: Santana won the Cy Young even though he was our #2 starter for much of that stretch and the bullpen was a brick wall.

[Shane Wahl]

 

1.  Having vented about the lack of Twins trade activity for a couple weeks now, I thought I would actually put some thought into it.

 

I've really got nothing, but I've been kicking around the idea that at the end of the day, maybe this part of his job is just something Terry Ryan doesn't like doing. it's distasteful to him.  He simply doesn't enjoy the negotiations, the back and forth, working multiple angles, trying to get the better of the other 29 GMs in the game.  

 

I wonder if maybe he makes a phone call--and only when really forced into the position of having to make a call, or answer one--makes an offer he considers fair, and then if the answer isn't "yes," he hangs up the phone and moves on.

 

Because really, at the end of the day...he simply doesn't do much trading.  Of any kind.  Deadline, offseason, whatever.  

 

2.  For as weak as the bullpen is, I've come to the conclusion the Twins biggest need going forward is a middle of the order hitter.  I don't know if the Twins/Molitor have the courage to move Mauer out of the middle of the order, but they need to, and they need to find someone who can hit there.  Mauer isn't that guy.  Love him, hate him, or something in between, today's game was an illustration of just how awful the Twins are when it comes to a number three hitter.  Nelson Cruz has a .950 OPS.  On a 3-0 pitch, late in a scoreless tie, he gets the green light, because he SHOULD get the green light.  He's a dangerous hitter.  He shouldn't have been pitched to in that situation.  Because... He's a legit big league 3 hole hitter.

 

Put the shoe on the other foot. Would any team worry about throwing a cookie to Mauer in that same situation?  Would he even swing?  If he did, would he do anything more than perhaps a double to left, if lucky?  There's no reason NOT to throw a fastball down the middle. Because...he's not a legit big league 3 hole hitter.

 

Mauer's not coming out of the lineup, and he shouldn't, at least until they have 9 better hitters.  

 

But for heaven's sake, if he's hitting third in your lineup, you have problems.   Maybe Sano can be the 4 hole guy, but they need to find one or two real, actual middle of the order guys.  The lack of them is a big reason why this team is really prone to extended scoring droughts.

 

3.  I am of the opinion Trevor May's best path to success going forward is to leave him in the pen.  He might or might not be an above average starter.  He's got the stuff to be a really, really valuable bullpen piece.  We all want hardthrowing, late game strikeout guys in the pen, preferably with control.  Well, they have one.  Or could have one, if they t would give him the job.  Trevor May.

 

4.  I'm not sure which I disagree with more:  the lack of any legit attempt to fix the bullpen either internally or externally, or that fact it's August and Shane Robinson is still on the Twins bench.  Today he's in the lineup, against a RH pitcher.  That's not something a team needs to do voluntarily.  

 

Damn this is a good post.

[jorgenswest]

Connecting with one thought...

 

The Twins offense this year from RF, 1B and DH is woefully inadequate. They are counting on those spots in the middle of the order. Sano fixed DH. Hunter has an RC+ of 100 and Mauer 94 and together contribute 0 WAR. They aren't in the line up for their glove. If the Twins want to fix the middle of the line up it is those two spots they need to fix. Is it possible that the Twins would have a better chance of winning next year if neither was on the roster?

[Danchat]

The bullpen is so bad, I get why they're keeping May there.

 

But we can fix the bullpen. May doesn't have to stay there next season. In his first full season, May looked pretty darn good, and I expect him to step up even further in 2016. I'll take what May will bring as a starter instead of in the bullpen.

 

But other than that, all the other points are good. Robinson can be a 4th outfielder, but with Torii taking 2 days off a week, we can't let him start that consistently. Arcia/Buxton need to replace him.

[Willihammer]

May has one too many good pitches to be a bullpen piece IMO. Fastball, curve, change, all good. But damn is it nice to watch a guy come out of the pen and dominate for a change.

[SwainZag]

 

The bullpen is so bad, I get why they're keeping May there.

 

But we can fix the bullpen. May doesn't have to stay there next season. In his first full season, May looked pretty darn good, and I expect him to step up even further in 2016. I'll take what May will bring as a starter instead of in the bullpen.

 

But other than that, all the other points are good. Robinson can be a 4th outfielder, but with Torii taking 2 days off a week, we can't let him start that consistently. Arcia/Buxton need to replace him.

 

 I guess it cold be argued if Arcia was hitting or if Buxton wasn't hurt we might be seeing a lot less of Hunter in the everyday lineup

[peterb18]

A few years ago while in Florida I listened to a panel discussion on the Twins and Terry Ryan was brought up. The panelists all like Terry and thought he is a good baseball man. But he doesn't like the wheeling and dealing that some of the young GM's are doing. Some have four or five things cooking at once and Terry is not comfortable with that type of thing.

Many of those GM's have assistants that are experienced baseball people that do this type of work. Does Anthony have a baseball background?

I like the idea of bringing in an experienced guy, like the ex Angel GM.

[howeda7]

Regarding Mauer, there's not enough other pieces to move him out of the 'middle' if you mean getting him to 7 or below. But I think Hick, Mauer, Dozier, Sano, Plouffe, Rosario makes a lot of sense for the first 5. Not sure how much that tweak changes anything though. If Escobar starts swinging better, you could insert him at #2 and drop Mauer to 6th.

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

My fear is that Pelfrey has lengthened his rope even longer with this good start, and that it will keep Berrios from being promoted sooner. It seems like when any pitcher has a good start or hitter a good week or two, that it takes like double or triple the amount of bad play for them to be considered to be removed for glaringly better options.

 

I was happy with Pelfrey's start today, but I fear this only ensures that we stick by him, even if he throws up 2-4 stinker starts in a row. This seems to have always plagued the Twins...leaving guys in way to long, due to any sort of previous stretch of success, even if it is clearly not likely to continue.

[howeda7]

I fear this too. Other team calls, if offer is unreasonable Ryan hangs up the phone and says 'I tried.' On occasion he may call, but again if the offer is unreasonable he hangs up the phone. We'll never know if this is true, but it wouldn't be shocking.

 

 

Yeah, but my uneducated, way-too-easy, from-a-distance thought process goes way beyond a negotiation tactic.

 

I wonder if he tries as hard as he can to avoid the whole process.

 

[howeda7]

Pelfrey probably bought himself 3 more starts today. If those starts go well, he'll stay. If they don't, it likely won't matter any more.

My fear is that Pelfrey has lengthened his rope even longer with this good start, and that it will keep Berrios from being promoted sooner. It seems like when any pitcher has a good start or hitter a good week or two, that it takes like double or triple the amount of bad play for them to be considered to be removed for glaringly better options.

 

I was happy with Pelfrey's start today, but I fear this only ensures that we stick by him, even if he throws up 2-4 stinker starts in a row. This seems to have always plagued the Twins...leaving guys in way to long, due to any sort of previous stretch of success, even if it is clearly not likely to continue.

 

[TheLeviathan]

I'm pretty sure GMs don't really negotiate contracts. And I'm skeptical of how much of the nitty gritty trade talks they do either.

 

Seems like negotiations generally get close to decided by assistants and the GM makes the final push/decision.

I'm sure the workload is shared to varying degrees, but he has openly stated his disdain for whatever role he does play. When you are the guy in charge those values will influence your subordinates.

[drjim]

 

I'm sure the workload is shared to varying degrees, but he has openly stated his disdain for whatever role he does play. When you are the guy in charge those values will influence your subordinates.

 

Or you hire and empower subordinates to that job. Can go multiple ways.

 

And however it gets done, it's hard to make the argument that contracts have really been a problem the last couple of years, except maybe being too quick to give extensions and giving out too much money to less than elite players.

 

They certainly haven't been aggressive or creative with their trades though.

[TheLeviathan]

Or you hire and empower subordinates to that job. Can go multiple ways.

 

And however it gets done, it's hard to make the argument that contracts have really been a problem the last couple of years, except maybe being too quick to give extensions and giving out too much money to less than elite players.

 

They certainly haven't been aggressive or creative with their trades though.

Right but the point is more that when there are elements to something Ryan doesn't enjoy, we see a lot less quality work done on his part. The Torii/Johan non-negotiations hurt this team and so does is passive attitude towards trading.

 

I don't need a gunslinger, but I sure don't want the guy hiding behind the hay wagon either.

[drjim]

 

Right but the point is more that when there are elements to something Ryan doesn't enjoy, we see a lot less quality work done on his part. The Torii/Johan non-negotiations hurt this team and so does is passive attitude towards trading.

I don't need a gunslinger, but I sure don't want the guy hiding behind the hay wagon either.

 

While fair, that was 8 years ago under a very different financial reality. Twins have handed out over $200mil in contracts and extensions over the past two years. Ryan doesn't appear to be hiding behind the hay wagon.

 

Now if over the next 3-4 years he is afraid to lock up this young core emerging, that is a problem.

[Brock Beauchamp]

While fair, that was 8 years ago under a very different financial reality. Twins have handed out over $200mil in contracts and extensions over the past two years. Ryan doesn't appear to be hiding behind the hay wagon.

 

Now if over the next 3-4 years he is afraid to lock up this young core emerging, that is a problem.

I don't believe Levi is talking about signing Torii or Johan. I think he's talking about not taking action on them and when things were coming to a head, retiring and leaving Bill Smith in a difficult situation.

[DaveW]

It's far to early to keep May in the bullpen full time, he has the potential to be a real nice #2/#3 in the rotation if he continues to improve.

 

 

Agreed with the thoughts re: Ryan, the guy clearly has no desire to be active on the trade market and never seems to want to take a significant risk on the FA market, not just talking 100 mil deals, but it seems like he always chooses the "safe" FA versus the more high risk/high upside one.

 

He always seems to value proven mediocrity (nolasco) over a high upside guy like Liriano when it comes to signings and trades.

 

Smith takes a lot of crap, but at least he tried to bring in high upside guys like Delmon and even Nishioka.

[drjim]

 

I don't believe Levi is talking about signing Torii or Johan. I think he's talking about not taking action on them and when things were coming to a head, retiring and leaving Bill Smith in a difficult situation.

 

I understand, and that was a failure by Ryan. I take him at his word that he was toast at that time and perhaps couldn't bring himself to spend the money that it would take.

 

I would respond that his recent spending the last two years show this probably isn't a problem anymore.

[Mike Sixel]

Except for his target being "safe*" low upside players, and passing on elite players.......sure, he has changed his stripes.

 

*like Suzuki......

[TheLeviathan]

 

I understand, and that was a failure by Ryan. I take him at his word that he was toast at that time and perhaps couldn't bring himself to spend the money that it would take.

 

I would respond that his recent spending the last two years show this probably isn't a problem anymore.

 

I would agree that this approach has improved much for the better, but that doesn't change my point that he has openly expressed disdain for that element of his job.

 

I don't know about you, but the parts of my job I like the least aren't the ones I'm in a rush to go do.

 

In TwinsDaily terms I'm guessing this is like the "Dealing with Dave" problem.

[DaveW]

In TwinsDaily terms I'm guessing this is like the "Dealing with Dave" problem.

?

[HitInAPinch]

 

A few years ago while in Florida I listened to a panel discussion on the Twins and Terry Ryan was brought up. The panelists all like Terry and thought he is a good baseball man. But he doesn't like the wheeling and dealing that some of the young GM's are doing. Some have four or five things cooking at once and Terry is not comfortable with that type of thing.
Many of those GM's have assistants that are experienced baseball people that do this type of work. Does Anthony have a baseball background?
I like the idea of bringing in an experienced guy, like the ex Angel GM.

A panel discussion of whom?

[HitInAPinch]

 

 

Pelfrey probably bought himself 3 more starts today. If those starts go well, he'll stay. If they don't, it likely won't matter any more.

 

A 1,000 times NO.  He gets TRADED.  His contract is up at the end of the year and the Twins are in desperate need of talent.