Article: What If The Twins Stand Pat?

[jimmer]

 

How important is this? Would you rather trade pieces now for a long-shot at even making the playoffs, or save them for 2016/2017 when the team is more poised at making a run? I'm not even talking about these prospects contributing to the Twins, rather, being available to hypothetically trade at a more appropriate time.

How do we know we will be more posited for a run next year?  That's an assumption I certainly wouldn't bet on as I look at where this team is at.  With our ridiculous May run, we may have a better shot making the playoffs this year than next, as KC will still be rocking, the Tigers will reload and have Miggy back, and the Indians will still have the talent that is under-performing but likely won't again.

 

It's always a good idea to get quality players when you can. Quality players are assets for the current and as pieces to move for prospects later..

 

 

 

 

Edited July 28, 2015 by jimmer

[nytwinsfan]

I'm fine with standing pat. I think trading for a good reliever is a good idea, but if they are just going to go get another Tim Stauffer, then no thanks. Unless we are going to legitimately upgrade, let's just give some internal guys a shot.  As for catcher, I'm ok with (1) a low-cost rental to share the role with Suzuki and give him more days off, or (2) making a bigger trade for a longer-term upside catcher that has a few years left, if the price is right but I think that is unlikely to be available.  Otherwise I'd wait until the offseason to pay or trade for a long-term solution at catcher. No interest in trading for a SS unless someone offers a great deal. 

 

The only thing I would trade Kepler, Berrios, Rosario, Arcia, Polanco, Gordon, or Gonsalves for at this point (I'm assuming Buxton, Sano, May, Gibson and Hicks are off limits) would be as part of a deal for a high-upside catcher with multiple years left. Otherwise I'd just keep them. I might trade Stewart, Walker, Meyer, Hu, etc. as part of a package for a legitimately good reliever.

[nytwinsfan]

 

I would have loved to trade those pieces now to get an elite SS that solves a huge question mark in 2016-17-18-19. I don't believe buyer's markets come around too often, and we could be missing out on acquiring high end talent at Costco-like prices.

We have much more pressing needs than SS, and our options by 2017-2019 for SS are likely to be even better than they are now (Polanco's D might improve and Gordon might be ready by 18 or 19). Until then, Escobar can hold down the fort. If Turner or Garver turn into league average catchers and a number of our relief prospects turn the corner, then maybe SS would become the top priority. But unfortunately I think that is unlikely to happen, so C and RP are by far the bigger priorities right now, for both the short and medium term.

[twinsfan34]

Instead of trades, why not try to see if guys like Jose Berrios, Brandon Peterson, Tyler Duffey, AJ Achter, et al could do a Brandon Finnegan type role in the 8th for the Twins? 

 

Too bad the Twins didn't select Aaron Nola last year. 

 

And ironically, this is about the time I would have guessed (expected?) Nick Burdi to be ready. 

[beckmt]

Just a note, which seems to be taking hold.  32-33 is the new 36.  After the steroid era things are returning to normal and your average major league(no superstar) is done between 32-34.  Taking on players over 30 is dicey.  Pitchers are a different sort, but this is close to true.  Some pitchers with better stuff and pinpoint control will be very good longer.  I hope we will see 1-2 new relievers in here this week, but don't want to give top level prospects for them.  Younger players with control are more important as Twins window is coming in the next 6 years.  A bad trade could haunt us for a long time. 

[David HK]

 

They needed RP help (and C help) yesterday, these trades should have been made weeks ago, waiting around in August may be to late.

On the nose.  Yesterday was already a couple of months ago.  It's just inexplicable, maddening even, that they haven't made move one in to fill these two black holes in all this time.  (Plus continuing the Santana experiment waaaaay too long).  

Now we're facing getting into a bidding war for marginal players, and letting the wild card cushion and playoff prospects slip away.  I think it's already too late- witness the last 3 series since the break.  What a mess.  I don't want to see a flurry of activity for its own sake.  The one and only thing I'd beg TR to do is get some bloody BP help- way past the time to get it done.

[Vanimal46]

We have much more pressing needs than SS, and our options by 2017-2019 for SS are likely to be even better than they are now (Polanco's D might improve and Gordon might be ready by 18 or 19). Until then, Escobar can hold down the fort. If Turner or Garver turn into league average catchers and a number of our relief prospects turn the corner, then maybe SS would become the top priority. But unfortunately I think that is unlikely to happen, so C and RP are by far the bigger priorities right now, for both the short and medium term.

All fine and dandy, can't argue with your reasoning that C and RP are pressing needs. Unfortunately C was not available, and an elite SS was at a discounted price.

 

The Twins need a lot of things to go right (Polanco's D MIGHT improve, Gordon MIGHT be ready by 18/19) They are all still question marks....

[ALessKosherScott]

I think among viable options for the season, these two strike me as the most likely.

 

1. The Twins stand pat, take advantage of the unbalanced schedule with more games against dreck-like teams than the rest of the AL, win a Wild Card birth and either lose there or in a series against KC.

 

2. The Twins make a move, fill a hole or two, win the Wild Card and lose either there or in a series against KC. 

 

It's hard to come up with a trade scenario that gives them enough offense or pitching to win it all this year.

[nicksaviking]

I would have loved to trade those pieces now to get an elite SS that solves a huge question mark in 2016-17-18-19. I don't believe buyer's markets come around too often, and we could be missing out on acquiring high end talent at Costco-like prices.

I really doubt Tulowitzki will be a SS in 18-19, maybe not even 17.

[jimmer]

 

 

I think among viable options for the season, these two strike me as the most likely.

 

1. The Twins stand pat, take advantage of the unbalanced schedule with more games against dreck-like teams than the rest of the AL, win a Wild Card birth and either lose there or in a series against KC.

 

2. The Twins make a move, fill a hole or two, win the Wild Card and lose either there or in a series against KC. 

 

It's hard to come up with a trade scenario that gives them enough offense or pitching to win it all this year.

The most likely is invisible option #3 that says they don't make the playoffs at all because they've overplayed their talent and are coming back down Earth.

[Seth Stohs]

 

I agree the Twins shouldn't sell the farm but you don't punt when you hold a playoff position on July 31st, which the Twins probably will.

 

I agree with this sentence. I want them to add a couple of pieces. I dont' think they need a 'star' to continue winning, but they do need to shore up the bullpen. As I wrote, acquiring the big names at the deadline don't always work out. Sticking with your guys doesn't mean it won't.

 

The GM needs to think this year and the future...

 

That said, I don't think we should minimize the wild card game. Ask the Royals... they went from the Wild Card to the World Series... get into the tournament and see what happens.

 

But don't sell the future.

[Tibs]

I might prefer they stood pat at this point. Bring up some pitchers for bullpen help. Send Danny Santana down. I don't really want to trade prospects for a relief pitcher or backup catcher for this season unless they are extremely expendable.

 

When I say stand pat, I don't mean keep the roster/lineup as it is. Someone else needs to be starting at SS. They can bring up Arcia or someone like Beresford if they think they need another infielder. Get pitching help from AAA.

 

It is a bit deflating to me to see what it took to get Troy Tulowitzki and he's going to someone other than the Twins.

[jimmer]

 

I really doubt Tulowitzki will be a SS in 18-19, maybe not even 17.

I'd bet he will.  He'll be 35 at the end of his contract unless Toronto makes the playoffs in his last year of the contract. He won't be 40. He will, for sure, be a shortstop in 2017 and still an average- good defensive one too.

Edited July 28, 2015 by jimmer

[jimmer]

 

 

 

The GM needs to think this year and the future...

 

 

which is why getting Tulo would have been such a good move.

[Willihammer]

Uh...

 

they haven't tried Pelfrey in the pen yet.

they haven't tried Berrios or Dufffey or Rogers in the pen yet.

 

Pitching is pitching, and its a team game. Save resources, move guys into different roles.

 

Same might even go for the SS hole. Its amazing to me that the Twins can be so wildly flexible about putting infielders in the outfield but don't seem to have considered putting Dozier back at SS. His defense was disproportionately penalized by a couple of high-profile gaffes in 2012 but overall, it really wasn't that bad. He's every bit as athletic as Escobar. Get him back at SS, and bring up Polanco to play 2B. At least its worth a shot.

 

Even at C - has anyone else noticed Eric Fryer sitting among the top framers at baseball prospectus? He still may not have enough bat but maybe he should be catching a greater share of games.

 

Unless/until the Twins exhaust some of these options it seems premature to ship away talent.

Edited July 28, 2015 by Willihammer

[nytwinsfan]

 

All fine and dandy, can't argue with your reasoning that C and RP are pressing needs. Unfortunately C was not available, and an elite SS was at a discounted price.

The Twins need a lot of things to go right (Polanco's D MIGHT improve, Gordon MIGHT be ready by 18/19) They are all still question marks....

What elite SS is at a discounted price? Tulo? He would have taken one of either Gibson or Berrios, plus a bunch more. If he were two or three years younger, I might have considered it, but I wouldn't call that discounted.

 

As for SS, it is a combo of Escobar being league average already, Polanco possibly being able to play SS soon, and Gordon possibly in 18-19. Yes, the latter two are big IFs, but the combination of all three means there is not much downside there.

[mickeymental]

it'll be amusing if reyes outperforms tulo for the rest of 2015.

[Vanimal46]

I really doubt Tulowitzki will be a SS in 18-19, maybe not even 17.

I can't guess he will be a SS 3 years from now just like you can't guess he won't.

 

All I know is if his SS playing days are numbered, he still has an elite bat that can stick in a non-premium position on the field, or DH.

[jimmer]

 

What elite SS is at a discounted price? Tulo? He would have taken one of either Gibson or Berrios, plus a bunch more. If he were two or three years younger, I might have considered it, but I wouldn't call that discounted.

 

 

He would have?  The Rockies just traded him and Hawkins, took on Toronto's salary dump and still didn't get a prospect like Berrios OR a MLB pitcher like Gibson. If we didn't throw a salary dump or ask for Hawkins, you think he STILL costs Berrios plus a bunch more?  And depending on what more it would have taken, it's still a good trade for us.

Edited July 28, 2015 by jimmer

[Seth Stohs]

 

which is why getting Tulo would have been such a good move.

 

Sure, but not at the expense of Gibson and Sano (and maybe more).

[Vanimal46]

Sure, but not at the expense of Gibson and Sano (and maybe more).

Sano = Reyes in value???

[DaveW]

 

Sure, but not at the expense of Gibson and Sano (and maybe more).

Huh? The deal Toronto gave up wasn't even close to that.

 

MAYBE one of Gibson OR Berrios and a Gonsalves type would have been closer in value.

[savvyspy]

I don't think standing pat is a huge deal. This team isn't good enough across the board to make noise in the playoffs this year. If Ryan can get a guy that's part of the future in the pen, SS, or catcher then go for it but a rental makes no sense. The team has overachieved their talent so far and that's great. They are fun to watch and some of the young guys like Rosario and Sano have helped. 

 

I would bring up Arcia, Tonkin, and any other viable bullpen arm they have internally and see how they handle this slump. If they collapse then you know what you have and can fix it in the offseason. But maybe they learn to overcome adversity and it helps them down the line.

[Winston Smith]

I just don't have any faith in TR at this point. When was the last time he made a good trade? Shannon Stewart, 10 years ago? Maybe May or Tommy Milone but those are iffy at this point and certainly aren't big impact trades.

 

 

 

[nytwinsfan]

 

He would have?  The Rockies just traded him and Hawkins, took on Toronto's salary dump and still didn't get a prospect like Berrios OR a MLB pitcher like Gibson. If we didn't throw a salary dump or ask for Hawkins, you think he STILL costs Berrios plus a bunch more?  And depending on what more it would have taken, it's still a good trade for us.

Hoffman is just below Berrios, and I would argue has a higher ceiling. And Castro is at least a Gonsalves-level prospect. And Reyes' salary is not great, but at least it is limited to two years. If Tulo starts to decline in 2017 or 2018, which is at least a decent probability, the Jays will have 3 or 4+ years of significant salary to eat as well. So yeah, I stand by my characterization.

Edited July 28, 2015 by nytwinsfan

[tobi0040]

I would like to see Benoit.  Great track record, making $8M next year.  Gives us a really good 8-9 innings.  Play matchups in the 7th.

 

However, if the demands for a guy like that are really high, say Kepler, Kohl, etc....it is hard for me to fault the Twins because they can sign a guy like that in the off-season on about a 2 year commitment.

What do I expect?  A reliever that is no better than Duensing or Boyer.  Then we hear about how he is a veteran and been around and will really help us.

Edited July 28, 2015 by tobi0040

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I think among viable options for the season, these two strike me as the most likely.

 

1. The Twins stand pat, take advantage of the unbalanced schedule with more games against dreck-like teams than the rest of the AL, win a Wild Card birth and either lose there or in a series against KC.

 

2. The Twins make a move, fill a hole or two, win the Wild Card and lose either there or in a series against KC. 

 

It's hard to come up with a trade scenario that gives them enough offense or pitching to win it all this year.

I agree but I think small moves should be made to shore up the biggest deficiencies.

 

At the very least, you give Gibson, May, Sano, Rosario, Buxton, et al a chance to play meaningful games through the end of the season. That's worth giving up a few 20-ish level prospects by itself.

 

And then there's the increased fan interest side of the equation, which is worth a hell of a lot of money to the Twins. Two months ago, they were trailing 2014 attendance by 4-5,000 per game. They're set to pass average 2014 attendance during this homestand. That's worth millions by itself.

[jimmer]

 

Sure, but not at the expense of Gibson and Sano (and maybe more).

I don't believe for a second it would have taken Sano (and what he just got traded for seems to back that up) and losing Gibson doesn't give me even a seconds pause.

[nicksaviking]

I'd bet he will.  He'll be 35 at the end of his contract unless Toronto makes the playoffs in his last year of the contract. He won't be 40. He will, for sure, be a shortstop in 2017 and still an average- good defensive one too.

He's not a good one now. His range factor is negative and that generally doesn't increase with age. If he's a SS in 2017 it's only because Toronto has nowhere else to put him, he's definately on the Hanley Rameriz train to Cornertown.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I don't believe for a second it would have taken Sano (and what he just got traded for seems to back that up) and losing Gibson doesn't give me even a seconds pause.

Not to mention that Gibson is quite a bit more valuable than what the Rockies got from the Jays.

 

No matter how you view Gibson's past six weeks, he's more valuable than a 80-ish prospect who isn't missing bats in AA.