Article: The Twins' Pinch-Hitting Problem

[Greg Logan]

One of the luxuries of being nine games over .500 at the All-Star break is the chance to take a closer look at some of the often-ignored corners of the roster for upgrades. Building a bench that can make a difference late in a ballgame is tough, and in fact most teams in baseball have struggled to do so in recent years, but no team has struggled to quite the extent that the Twins have.Let’s start by taking a look at how American League pinch-hitters have fared over the last five years:

• 2011: .216/.299/.321, .620 OPS, 73 wRC+
• 2012: .207/.290/.339, .628 OPS, 74 wRC+
• 2013: .208/.300/.343, .643 OPS, 79 wRC+
• 2014: .221/.303/.329, .633 OPS, 82 wRC+
• 2015: .215/.289/.342, .631 OPS, 80 wRC+

Clearly fielding strong pinch-hitting options has been a struggle for AL clubs, with pinch-hitters statistically performing 18-27% worse than a league-average hitter according to wRC+, a statistic that attempts to measure such things. By comparison, here’s how the Twins have performed in pinch-hitting situations during the same time frame (390 PA):

• BA: .178 (last in AL by 19 points)
• OBP: .250 (last in AL by 26 points)
• SLG: .247 (last in AL by 65 points)
• OPS: .497 (last in AL by 100 points)
• 38 wRC+ (last in AL by 27 points)

Not only have the Twins been the worst pinch-hitting team in the AL over this stretch, based on the gaps above it hasn’t been particularly close. Judging by wRC+ they’ve been nearly 30% worse than anyone else. And to add insult to injury, in their 35 pinch-hitting opportunities so far in 2015 they’ve been even worse:

• .086/.158/.114
• .272 OPS
• -23 wRC+

That’s impressively bad, and while it certainly won’t continue across a full season’s sample size (unless you’re the 2006 Orioles, apparently), the consistently poor performance across five years is concerning.

 

As the July 31st non-waiver trade deadline approaches, it will be interesting to see if a bench bat is a target for the Twins front office or whether they feel they have enough talent in the wings with players like Oswaldo Arcia, Kennys Vargas or even a promising bat like Max Kepler.

 

If it’s the latter, is the team ready to table everyday development for young players in favor of bench production? It could be a fascinating story line as we approach the deadline.

 

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[jorgenswest]

Adding Arcia will guarantee that a corner player is on the bench and available to pinch hit every game. I think that brings more value than Robinson.

[curt1965]

I'm not surprised at those stats: the Twins believe in having bench players that are happy to be bench players- fringe major leaguers that-

a) are happy to be drawing major league salaries

are happy to play once a week (or less)

and c) have the capabilities to play several positions defensively

If you consider the lineup that Mollie appears to prefer, these are your late inning options-

Fryer, Escobar, Robinson, and Nunez-absolutely pathetic. If by some chance the Twins make the playoffs, I could see all 4 gone, and if they don't change a couple of guys soon, they will not make the playoffs!!

[diehardtwinsfan]

I think Nunez could carve out a nice career doing it.  Decent stick and poor glove.  Guess we need to go out and find a Jose Offerman type.

[Platoon]

The bench is not an impressive lot. But even at that why did Nunez not bat for Suzuki late last night. Either Molitor does not trust his bench at all, or he has an aversion to PH. I think it might be the latter, as he has passed on some seemingly pretty obvious opportunities.

[DJL44]

Nunez is having a "bench bat" type of season. I'm not sure why he's been overlooked. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Wow

 

Great job looking this up. To borrow a trademarked phrase: Mind boggling.

 

The Twins have so much to hold their heads high about, and then there's stuff like this.

[SwainZag]

I'm not surprised, but those are sad numbers.  It doesn't help when the team carries 12+ pitchers, 3 catchers and the bench caters towards playing the field instead of the bat.  Either way, yuck.

[Shane Wahl]

Important article. Molitor clearly has something against pinch hitting. Otherwise, what?

Anyway, Arcia would be nice. After Buxton comes back in a month or whatever, the Twins could have two good bench bats and Eduardo Nunez still. Imagine that.

[Shaitan]

While the Twins #s are pretty bad, it's not like the league avg stats here are much to shoot for either. PH is a hard game with a small sample size for stats. How many PH appearances does the avg AL team make in a year?

 

How do AL stats compare to NL?

[stringer bell]

First of all, managers are reluctant to make any pinch-hitting moves unless the game is tied or the hitting team is behind. Benches are too small to lose a bench player early and when your team is ahead. Secondly, pinch hitting numbers in the AL should be more closely examined. When the Twins pinch hit for a regular in a laugher, it isn't the same as hitting for Santana with the Twins down a run in the eighth. I know Gardenhire was skewered for not wanting to expose his backup catcher, but that is exactly what Molitor has done. I can recall him pinch hitting for Herrmann in one AL game and doing a double switch in an NL game, but I don't think he hit for Suzuki all year. Suzuki and the shortstop would be about the only players it would figure to pinch hit for, unless Robinson started the game. Every individual pinch hitter would have extreme SSS, but if I recall correctly, Robinson has gotten on quite a few times as a pinch hitter.

[jun]

Twins rarely use pinch hitters, why bother? I think the priority now is to fix the bullpen ASAP.

[DuluthFan]

The Twins are tied for 2nd to last in pinch hit at bats with 35 (Royals 16) and last in pinch hitter batting average at .086.

 

Molitor plays his starters most of the time. His bench players typically play once a week. He therefore has his best hitters in the lineup already when possible pinch hit opportunities arise.

[jun]

 

The Twins are tied for 2nd to last in pinch hit at bats with 35 (Royals 16) and last in pinch hitter batting average at .086.

 

Molitor plays his starters most of the time. His bench players typically play once a week. He therefore has his best hitters in the lineup already when possible pinch hit opportunities arise.

Danny Santana is definitely not one of his best hitters.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Probably zooming in on the data would give a better picture. But, pinch hitters can make an impact. I would have left out the NL too if I had looked this up myself. Different rules and not teams we are competing against.

 

You'd like to think the Twins would be somewhere in the middle of something like this, not dead last and not even within shouting distance of next to last.

[GCTF]

 

 Guess we need to go out and find a Jose Offerman type.

Someone to chase after the other team's pitchers with a bat?

[Platoon]

Your BEST hitters are not necessarily in a game. Maybe a starters day off? Or a hit first, glove second guy. And why the aversion to using a bench guy to pinch hit? Its what a bench guy should be there for. Not just a place to store 4 players contented to give high 5's, smile, and collect MLB meal money. When you have 13 pitchers and an unused bench, it seems that you are tying one hand behind your own back.

[goulik]

I believe the reason to pinch hit is to bring in a better bat than what you have going to the plate. This would eliminate most pinch hitting opportunities based on who is on the bench. Do you bring in someone to hit .200 when you have a .240 up to bat?

That brings us to Nunez for Suzuki. While Suzuki has shown an overall weak bat, I thought I remembered reading somewhere on TD that his BA with runners on was dramatically higher and therefore a person to NOT pinch hit for late in the game with runners on in an important spot.

No runners on, down by one 8th-9th inning, catcher on the bench? Maybe pinch hit for Suzuki with Nunez. Maybe pinch hit for Santana with Nunez but other than that I'd be rolling with the guys I have out there based on our current bench. Yeah, it needs improvement.

Robinson is a pinch runner, not a pinch hitter and you also need one of those.

[DaveW]

I don't think Nunez is a good player, but I don't understand why you even have him on the roster if you continually refuse to use his as a PH for Suzuki or Santana. Nunez isn't good in the field, so if he isn't good enough to use as a PH there really is no reason for him to be wasting a spot on the major league roster.

[Greg Logan]

 

The Twins are tied for 2nd to last in pinch hit at bats with 35 (Royals 16) and last in pinch hitter batting average at .086.

 

Molitor plays his starters most of the time. His bench players typically play once a week. He therefore has his best hitters in the lineup already when possible pinch hit opportunities arise.

 

I think it's too early to tell on this. Across the full 4+ year sample I pulled, the Twins were actually in the middle of the pack in the AL when it comes to how often they pinch-hit. Certainly possible it's a philosophy thing for Molitor, or just a sign of a fairly new manager, but hard to tell with only a half-season of Molitor at the helm.

[Oxtung]

Batters perform significantly worse when pinch hitting than when starting. The drop off is startling. It is so large in fact that pinch hitting Nunez for Suzuki would probably decrease the teams chances of scoring a run.

 

This article is a little dated ('05) but I can't see why the conclusion would have changed.

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5404

[Greg Logan]

 

Batters perform significantly worse when pinch hitting than when starting. The drop off is startling. It is so large in fact that pinch hitting Nunez for Suzuki would probably decrease the teams chances of scoring a run. This article is a little dated ('05) but I can't see why the conclusion would have changed. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5404

 

I was looking for something like this! Thanks for posting.