Who says no first?

[twinscowboysbulls]

Say TR calls up the Brewers and offers:

 

Oswaldo Arcia

Mitch Garver

Max Kepler

Jorge Polanco

Brian Duensing

 

For

Will Smith

Jonathon Lucroy

[jorgenswest]

Brewers. They are not trading Lucroy. With that trade they also have to designate two guys on their 40 so they are giving up more than Smith and Lucroy.

[nytwinsfan]

I think we say no first, although maybe the Brewers do to, after thinking about it for a few minutes. Might be different if Lucroy was a 25 yo FA in 2020, not a 29 yo FA in 2017.

[Steve Lein]

This is not the type of trade a team like the Twins should ever make. Especially if they're in the phase like they are right now, where the next generation is just starting to come together and turn the franchises tide. It's great to see the better baseball this year, but in my eyes they're still far from true contenders, and shouldn't fool themselves into thinking they are to make a deal like this.

 

Now, trading Oswaldo Arcia for something that fits their roster better, I am definitely for.

[nytwinsfan]

 

This is not the type of trade a team like the Twins should ever make. Especially if they're in the phase like they are right now, where the next generation is just starting to come together and turn the franchises tide. It's great to see the better baseball this year, but in my eyes they're still far from true contenders, and shouldn't fool themselves into thinking they are to make a deal like this.

 

Now, trading Oswaldo Arcia for something that fits their roster better, I am definitely for.

I completely agree with the first paragraph.

 

As for the second, while I'm not absolutely opposed to trading Arcia if the price is right, I guess I'm a little surprised by the willingness of everyone to get rid of him. Who is going to be our DH next year after Sano moves to 3B? Mauer? He's not moving from 1B, sorry. Vargas? Maybe, but he's still a big question mark. Plouffe? No, he makes no sense at DH and should be traded this offseason. Also, where is our LH power going to come from? Vargas? I suppose, maybe.  I also think that if Arcia played just DH (and mostly against righties) he might be less likely to get injured as often, also increasing his value. For all his flubs in the outfield and his injuries, Arcia can hit for power, and has the potential to hit better for both average and power. He's still quite young. I just don't think there should be any rush to trade him.

[Kwak]

Really?  Let me put things in the vernacular--"Take my !@#$% in exchange for your good players."  Yeah, that'll work--to ensure they never take your call ever again.

[jorgenswest]

Brewers need starting pitching. If they want to move Lucroy, they are going to look for a Berrios type prospect. The supply of catchers is low, they should be able to get one.

 

In their eyes...

 

Arcia- no DH in NL. Questionable strike zone judgement. Out of options next year.

Kepler- LF arm or 1B. No DH in NL. Does half season surge in AA represent a spike or is it real?

Polanco- probably a 2B. Is he that much better than Sardinas?

 

The two other guys add no value.

 

No way they are trading Lucroy for two potential DHs and at best corner players and a 2B prospect.

[drjim]

I would have said Brewers until you added Duensing.

[Loosey]

The Brewers say no first.  But the Twins should not be making this type of trade right now.  Lucroy is very good, but by the time the Twins will really need him (when they are competing for real) Lucroy will most likely be gone and so will some of our mid-tier prospects we traded for him.  I am super intrigued by what the Twins have in Kepler.  They have put 6+ years into a 16 year old German kid and have turned him into a real life MLB prospect.  I don't see them just giving him away without seeing him have adequate time with the Twins before they move him or keep him.

[Loosey]

Plus no team will Take Duensing unless the Twins pay his entire contract.  Even then I doubt a team would trade for him because if the Twins are will to pay his contract they would most likely be willing to release him and said team could pick him up and not give away a low-A scrap heap player.

[Steve Lein]

 

As for the second, while I'm not absolutely opposed to trading Arcia if the price is right, I guess I'm a little surprised by the willingness of everyone to get rid of him. Who is going to be our DH next year after Sano moves to 3B? Mauer? He's not moving from 1B, sorry. Vargas? Maybe, but he's still a big question mark. Plouffe? No, he makes no sense at DH and should be traded this offseason. Also, where is our LH power going to come from? Vargas? I suppose, maybe.  I also think that if Arcia played just DH (and mostly against righties) he might be less likely to get injured as often, also increasing his value. For all his flubs in the outfield and his injuries, Arcia can hit for power, and has the potential to hit better for both average and power. He's still quite young. I just don't think there should be any rush to trade him.

 

The exact things you mention are exactly why I would trade Arcia.

 

These traits have value to get you something back that may be better for your team in the long run.

 

My main point on this opinion, is he is not a good fit for this team roster wise. Never has been. Yes, he's a lefty, but this also plays into what you can get back for him.

 

Arcia also may be young, but guess what? He's out of options after this year (after being granted a fourth year of options no less) because he hasn't yet earned full playing time on this team, which if you haven't noticed, hasn't been very good with him on it (Compare this to now and what do you discover?...and I know he's not the main culprit, but it's interesting, no?) The home runs are great, but a career .310 hitter in the minors has turned himself into a career .243 hitter in the majors. He's been the epitome of an "average" hitter. It's more weird to me that so many defend him on these grounds.

 

And believe me, I don't dislike Arcia. But this is the type of guy successful teams cash in on, not ride out.

[Vanimal46]

TR: "Hey Dougie, it's been a tough season for you guys, and I'm trying to keep in the playoff hunt. However, I think I have an offer that will help out both clubs."

 

DM: "Fire away Terry, I'm getting desperate here. I may not even be back next year the way this season's been going."

 

TR: "Alright, well we are very interested in Lucroy... and how about that Smith guy?"

 

DM: "I don't know Terry, Lucroy is still young and affordable. What are you gonna offer in return?"

 

TR: "Well, we were thinking Ar-"

 

*Click - dial tone*

 

TR: "Hmm, must have been cut off." *Tries redialing* "Now it's just his voice mail. Probably shouldn't have led off with Arcia...."

[nytwinsfan]

 

The exact things you mention are exactly why I would trade Arcia.

 

These traits have value to get you something back that may be better for your team in the long run.

 

My main point on this opinion, is he is not a good fit for this team roster wise. Never has been. Yes, he's a lefty, but this also plays into what you can get back for him.

 

Arcia also may be young, but guess what? He's out of options after this year (after being granted a fourth year of options no less) because he hasn't yet earned full playing time on this team, which if you haven't noticed, hasn't been very good with him on it (Compare this to now and what do you discover?...and I know he's not the main culprit, but it's interesting, no?) The home runs are great, but a career .310 hitter in the minors has turned himself into a career .243 hitter in the majors. He's been the epitome of an "average" hitter. It's more weird to me that so many defend him on these grounds.

 

And believe me, I don't dislike Arcia. But this is the type of guy successful teams cash in on, not ride out.

 

I guess I don't see why he's not a fit for the Twins (yes, he doesn't play great outfield defense, but that will be the same for any roster), but I guess we do agree that it all depends on what they can get for him. I'm skeptical they can get all that much.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I don't see this as a trade either team would be terribly interested in.  If the Brewers shop Lucroy, they are essentially committing to a full rebuild.  They would probably be interested in some younger pitching options (Berrios, Stewart, etc.).  Not opposed to targeting Lucroy, I just don't think this deal is worth it for Milwauke, and I don't see the Twins really offering that up either.

[Tibs]

I hope the Twins would say no first

[jimbo92107]

This is selling the farm before the harvest. No, no, no.

 

This is NOT a championship season for the Minnesota Twins, despite an entertainingly competitive few months. The starting pitching is much improved, but look what happened when they were up against good offenses. Same with the hitting. Good pitchers shut this team down.

 

Also, Jonathon Lucroy is good, but he's no Pudge Rodriguez. Good defensive catcher, some pop in the bat, hits about .250. Slightly better than Kurt Suzuki, whom the team has been physically wearing out this season.

 

A better option would be to swap Chris Herrmann for Eric Fryer, then let Fryer catch half the games in the second half of the season. Then Suzuki could rest more, have fresher legs and heal up from the daily beating of catching. Then his hitting would pick up. Meanwhile, Herrmann gets more playing time and more live at-bats in AAA. For better relief pitching, send down Duensing and Thompson and replace them with Theilbar and Taylor Rogers, and later some others from Rochester.

 

Cost of all these moves: Zip. Plus, we get to find out who in Rochester is able to contribute to current and future campaigns. That's supposed to be the whole point of having a minor league system, to produce a stream of good players. Might as well use that first, before giving away a bunch of promising guys for a dubious run this season.

[jimmer]

 

 

 

Also, Jonathon Lucroy is good, but he's no Pudge Rodriguez. Good defensive catcher, some pop in the bat, hits about .250. Slightly better than Kurt Suzuki, whom the team has been physically wearing out this season.

 

 

want to make sure I'm reading this right.  Are you saying Lucroy is only slightly better than Suzuki?

[drjim]

Because of his background Kepler is my all time favorite Twins prospect. But with that said, he and Polanco are the perfect guys to trade out of their prospects. They have value but uncertain Polanco can stick at SS and you almost never get burned trading corner of/1b (unless they become multi-year all stars).

 

If you can get a controlled c, ss or sp it makes sense. Just don't see Brewers doing this.

[dxpavelka]

 

I completely agree with the first paragraph.

 

As for the second, while I'm not absolutely opposed to trading Arcia if the price is right, I guess I'm a little surprised by the willingness of everyone to get rid of him. Who is going to be our DH next year after Sano moves to 3B? Mauer? He's not moving from 1B, sorry. Vargas? Maybe, but he's still a big question mark. Plouffe? No, he makes no sense at DH and should be traded this offseason. Also, where is our LH power going to come from? Vargas? I suppose, maybe.  I also think that if Arcia played just DH (and mostly against righties) he might be less likely to get injured as often, also increasing his value. For all his flubs in the outfield and his injuries, Arcia can hit for power, and has the potential to hit better for both average and power. He's still quite young. I just don't think there should be any rush to trade him.

Mauer, Rosario, Hunter, Dozier, Plouffe.  All have batting averages lower then Arcia this year.  And batting average isn't even his game.  Trade him for Lucroy straight up?  I'm intrigued although leaving him to languish in AAA probably turns the Brewers off on any such deal.  Throw in a catcher, infielder & outfielder who all should, or at the very least, could be keys pieces down the road?  NOT

[jimbo92107]

 

want to make sure I'm reading this right.  Are you saying Lucroy is only slightly better than Suzuki?

Slightly better than a _healthy_ Kurt Suzuki. Recall that when the Twins acquired him, Suzuki was pretty worn out from starting several years for the A's. They wore him out, and Suzuki was looking forward to platooning a lot more with the Twins. That hasn't happened because of last year, when a healthy and fresh Suzuki put up career numbers at the plate.

 

This year it's been different because the Twins are doing what Oakland did - wearing him out by making him catch almost every day. The result, as in Oakland, is that Suzuki's legs are too shot to get pop in his bat, and his offensive numbers have plummeted.

 

My solution is to swap Chris Herrmann for Eric Fryer in AAA. Fryer is currently hitting .299 for Rochester (currently inactive for some reason, hope it's not an injury). Herrmann's bat has gone completely cold from disuse. He looks completely out of sync at the plate. Get him down in AAA to get regular at-bats. Meanwhile, let Fryer catch half the games for the Twins, so Suzuki maybe can freshen up for September.

 

A beat up, tired Kurt Suzuki isn't in the same league as Lucroy. But when Suzuki is healthy and rested, he's pretty darn good. Suzuki needs some rest, even if the Twins bring up Stuart Turner, who may be Butera 2.0.

[Boom Boom]

I was about to say the Brewers say no first... but then you had me at Duensing.

 

I think we've got a match now.

[HitInAPinch]

 

I guess I don't see why he's not a fit for the Twins (yes, he doesn't play great outfield defense, but that will be the same for any roster), but I guess we do agree that it all depends on what they can get for him. I'm skeptical they can get all that much.

 

I think you could balance out the outfield defense with Buxton/Hicks in CF and Rosario/Hicks in LF.  Fast guys fast enough to cover 3/4 of the outfield and run to the wall in RF when a fly ball bonks Arcia in the head  

 

That being said, Arcia flat out needs to hit better than he has.  The thought of a fully functional Arcia and Sano back to back in a lineup gives me chills.

 

From another's post:  Who is going to be our DH next year after Sano moves to 3B?

I haven't seen much of Sano playing in the field, but scouts have said that his best position in the field is probably DH.

 

From the orginal poster: 

For
Will Smith
Jonathon Lucroy

 

I like the Fresh Prince of Bel Air.  He raps happy!

[Linus]

Twins say no but for a different reason.  Lucroy is going to get paid big time in a couple years and if I'm the GM I'm not committing to huge contracts for catchers ever again.  Consequently, good prospects are too big a price for 2 years of Lucroy.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

This is selling the farm before the harvest. No, no, no.

Trading Kepler and Polanco is "selling the farm"?  They're both having nice seasons at AA, but neither has ever been on a top 100 prospect list, Sickels had them both rated as B- before the season, etc.  They're not elite.  Even as decent prospects, odds are pretty solid they don't produce as much career WAR as Lucroy will over the next 2.5 seasons and Smith will over the next 4.

 

And the rest of this proposal is rubbish from the Twins side -- Arcia is a failed prospect at the moment, Duensing has negative value, and Garver is nothing right now.

 

Pretty sure Milwaukee would laugh at this proposal from the Twins, which should tell you it isn't anywhere near "selling the farm."  I know we love "our prospects" and these guys aren't bad prospects, they just aren't THAT valuable as baseball commodities.

[nytwinsfan]

I think you could balance out the outfield defense with Buxton/Hicks in CF and Rosario/Hicks in LF.  Fast guys fast enough to cover 3/4 of the outfield and run to the wall in RF when a fly ball bonks Arcia in the head

 

From another's post:  Who is going to be our DH next year after Sano moves to 3B?

I haven't seen much of Sano playing in the field, but scouts have said that his best position in the field is probably DH.

 

 

I agree that is a possibility for the outfield, but I'd rather see Buxton and a combo of Kepler, Rosario, and Hicks, probably with Hicks getting most of his at bats against lefties and maybe playing in the outfield in the 8th/9th inning when the Twins are ahead.

 

As for the quip about Sano's defense, I don't even know what that means. A lot of scouts are just repeating what other scouts have said, without giving it much thought or even observing him. Sano definitely has the arm and charging speed for third.  His potential issues are his lateral movement and tendency to commit errors. But Plouffe's current lateral movement is not amazing by any means, and he committed a lot of errors in the minors.  Further, Sano cut down on his errors a lot in June (only 3 I believe). I guess my strong opinion is that while Sano will never be an asset defensively, Arcia is a bigger liability in the outfield than Sano is at third, which is why I would make Arcia into a DH medium-term, not Sano (I'm fine with Sano DH'ing this year while Plouffe is still here).  Plouffe only has two years of control left after this one, and I think it makes sense to trade him, as much as I like the guy. We could probably get a decent catching prospect, which is honestly a big need for this team.

[nytwinsfan]

 

 

Trading Kepler and Polanco is "selling the farm"?  They're both having nice seasons at AA, but neither has ever been on a top 100 prospect list, Sickels had them both rated as B- before the season, etc.  They're not elite.  Even as decent prospects, odds are pretty solid they don't produce as much career WAR as Lucroy will over the next 2.5 seasons and Smith will over the next 4.

 

"Before the season" being the key words. I disagree about those odds. I think a positive projection for Lucroy over the next 2.5 seasons is 7.5 WAR and for Smith is 1.5 WAR. That's being charitable.  I think it is a greater than 50% chance that Polanco and Kepler combined are worth 9 WAR over their 12 years of team control.

[Linus]

I'm not the biggest Arcia fan but he isn't going to fetch much in a trade and there is still the chance that you strike gold with him.  Plus, they need a DH as early as next year.  If you keep he and Vargas, there is a chance that one of them grabs the job and runs with it.  The other becomes the hitting coach at Central Illinois St.

[Linus]

 

 

Lucroy is better than a healthy Suzuki by a pretty wide margin. Lucroy has easily bested Suzuki's best offensive year three times already.

 

And he's a quality defender and framer to boot as opposed to Suzuki.  Suzuki is lucky to be a starter.

 

And, BTW, last year Suzuki had the most PAs he's had since 2011 and he only had like 10 or so more in 2011.  Twins started him at catcher 115 times last year which is the most he had started since 2011.  He hasn't started more than 127 games at catcher this decade.

Lucroy is a really good catcher - and absolutely no comparison with Suzuki.   I do think Suzuki would be substantially better playing only half the games.

[jimmer]

 

Slightly better than a _healthy_ Kurt Suzuki. Recall that when the Twins acquired him, Suzuki was pretty worn out from starting several years for the A's. They wore him out, and Suzuki was looking forward to platooning a lot more with the Twins. That hasn't happened because of last year, when a healthy and fresh Suzuki put up career numbers at the plate.

 

This year it's been different because the Twins are doing what Oakland did - wearing him out by making him catch almost every day. The result, as in Oakland, is that Suzuki's legs are too shot to get pop in his bat, and his offensive numbers have plummeted.

 

 

A beat up, tired Kurt Suzuki isn't in the same league as Lucroy. But when Suzuki is healthy and rested, he's pretty darn good. Suzuki needs some rest, even if the Twins bring up Stuart Turner, who may be Butera 2.0.

Lucroy is better than a healthy Suzuki by a pretty wide margin. Lucroy has easily bested Suzuki's best offensive year three times already.

And he's a quality defender and framer to boot as opposed to Suzuki. 

 

Suzuki is lucky to be a starter.

And, BTW, last year Suzuki had the most PAs he's had since 2011 and he only had like 10 or so more in 2011.  Twins started him at catcher 115 times last year which is the most he had started since 2011.  He hasn't started more than 127 games at catcher this decade. He's on pace for 126. Not sure that qualifies as wearing a catcher out.

[jimmer]

 

Lucroy is a really good catcher - and absolutely no comparison with Suzuki.   I do think Suzuki would be substantially better playing only half the games.

sorry, in my shock to his reply, I forgot to quote him when I responded :-)