Who says no first?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Slightly better than a _healthy_ Kurt Suzuki. Recall that when the Twins acquired him, Suzuki was pretty worn out from starting several years for the A's. They wore him out, and Suzuki was looking forward to platooning a lot more with the Twins. That hasn't happened because of last year, when a healthy and fresh Suzuki put up career numbers at the plate.

 

This year it's been different because the Twins are doing what Oakland did - wearing him out by making him catch almost every day. The result, as in Oakland, is that Suzuki's legs are too shot to get pop in his bat, and his offensive numbers have plummeted.

That's a real nice narrative, but I am not sure it is the actual truth.  Suzuki was a below league average hitter every single year of his career before coming to the Twins, you don't need a fancy narrative to explain why he's even worse at age 31.  Even last year there wasn't much "pop" in his bat (his ISO was only marginally higher than this year).  I highly doubt extra rest is going to make a significant difference for him.

 

Lucroy obviously has some questions to answer this year, but the dude is 2-3 years younger than Suzuki, and is coming off a combined 126 OPS+ over the previous 3 seasons.  He's got a much longer way to fall than Suzuki ever did, meaning he's got a larger range of expected usefulness.

[spinowner]

 

This is NOT a championship season for the Minnesota Twins, despite an entertainingly competitive few months.

 

This is the key thought to keep in mind when discussing trades. If the Twins' only significant weakness were at catcher then we could think about overpaying for a Lucroy to try to win now. But this team is still rebuilding, winning record notwithstanding. Maybe, hopefully, within the next few years such a trade will be one worth making.

[drjim]

 

This is the key thought to keep in mind when discussing trades. If the Twins' only significant weakness were at catcher then we could think about overpaying for a Lucroy to try to win now. But this team is still rebuilding, winning record notwithstanding. Maybe, hopefully, within the next few years such a trade will be one worth making.

 

Agreed. A big move for a catcher or ss is just not a good idea at the time. It might be possible to add a bullpen arm at relatively low cost but even that is uncertain. A reasonable argument can be made that no AL teams should be selling yet, and only a handful of NL teams. Very limited supply certainly drives up prices.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

"Before the season" being the key words. I disagree about those odds. I think a positive projection for Lucroy over the next 2.5 seasons is 7.5 WAR and for Smith is 1.5 WAR. That's being charitable.  I think it is a greater than 50% chance that Polanco and Kepler combined are worth 9 WAR over their 12 years of team control.

9 WAR over 12 years is probably pretty worthless, when compared to a starting-level player.

 

Maybe I should have phrased it, as nice as they are as prospects, neither Kepler nor Polanco is probably likely to average 3 WAR per season over 2.5 years as you project for Lucroy (which is still a hefty regression from his 5 WAR per full season average from 2012-2014).

 

Again, even if the Brewers are in full rebuild/sell mode, I think it's extremely unlikely they would accept a package headed by Kepler/Polanco for Lucroy.  I doubt the Twins find a cheaper way to get a projected 3 WAR catcher in the near future either.

[Linus]

 

This is the key thought to keep in mind when discussing trades. If the Twins' only significant weakness were at catcher then we could think about overpaying for a Lucroy to try to win now. But this team is still rebuilding, winning record notwithstanding. Maybe, hopefully, within the next few years such a trade will be one worth making.

OK, at what point do people say we are contending this year?  I have this vision of the Twins being in the hunt for a wild card on September 10th with people posting that we better be playing the kids so as to prepare for the future.

 

Its not mutually exclusive to make a trade that helps us this year and the future, for example, catcher.

[drjim]

 

9 WAR over 12 years is probably pretty worthless, when compared to a starting-level player.

 

Maybe I should have phrased it, as nice as they are as prospects, neither Kepler nor Polanco is probably likely to average 3 WAR per season over 2.5 years as you project for Lucroy (which is still a hefty regression from his 5 WAR per full season average from 2012-2014).

 

Again, even if the Brewers are in full rebuild/sell mode, I think it's extremely unlikely they would accept a package headed by Kepler/Polanco for Lucroy.  I doubt the Twins find a cheaper way to get a projected 3 WAR catcher in the near future either.

 

I just don't see the Brewers trading Lucroy for quantity either. Absolutely going to start with Berrios or possibly May, and I don't think that is a smart move for the Twins at this time. Maybe the offseason if they can add another starter through free agency.

[HitInAPinch]

 

I agree that is a possibility for the outfield, but I'd rather see Buxton and a combo of Kepler, Rosario, and Hicks, probably with Hicks getting most of his at bats against lefties and maybe playing in the outfield in the 8th/9th inning when the Twins are ahead.

 

As for the quip about Sano's defense, I don't even know what that means. A lot of scouts are just repeating what other scouts have said, without giving it much thought or even observing him. Sano definitely has the arm and charging speed for third.  His potential issues are his lateral movement and tendency to commit errors. But Plouffe's current lateral movement is not amazing by any means, and he committed a lot of errors in the minors.  Further, Sano cut down on his errors a lot in June (only 3 I believe). I guess my strong opinion is that while Sano will never be an asset defensively, Arcia is a bigger liability in the outfield than Sano is at third, which is why I would make Arcia into a DH medium-term, not Sano (I'm fine with Sano DH'ing this year while Plouffe is still here).  Plouffe only has two years of control left after this one, and I think it makes sense to trade him, as much as I like the guy. We could probably get a decent catching prospect, which is honestly a big need for this team.

 

So now we're discounting scouting reports.  Ok, I'm done.

[drjim]

 

OK, at what point do people say we are contending this year?  I have this vision of the Twins being in the hunt for a wild card on September 10th with people posting that we better be playing the kids so as to prepare for the future.

 

Its not mutually exclusive to make a trade that helps us this year and the future, for example, catcher.

 

But to get that catcher you have to really hamper the future (ie Berrios or May). Tough balance at the moment.

[nytwinsfan]

 

So now we're discounting scouting reports.  Ok, I'm done.

 

No, just ones that don't give any specifics and regurgitate almost word for word what other scouts have said. If you read carefully, you can tell the difference.

[spinowner]

 

OK, at what point do people say we are contending this year?  I have this vision of the Twins being in the hunt for a wild card on September 10th with people posting that we better be playing the kids so as to prepare for the future.

 

Its not mutually exclusive to make a trade that helps us this year and the future, for example, catcher.

I think it probably would be mutually exclusive. At least it would be if I were the team trading the catcher.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

This is the key thought to keep in mind when discussing trades. If the Twins' only significant weakness were at catcher then we could think about overpaying for a Lucroy to try to win now.

 

 

Agreed. A big move for a catcher or ss is just not a good idea at the time.

 

But if you hope to contend in 2016 or 2017, you will probably need to address the catcher position from outside the organization (there's almost nothing from within right now).  Lucroy would do that, in addition to fortifying the 2015 team.  He's not a band-aid or rental.

 

Obviously that doesn't mean we should "overpay" to get him, but a pair of non-elite prospects (even good ones, like Kepler/Polanco) should not be out of the question if we like Lucroy.

[drjim]

 

But if you hope to contend in 2016 or 2017, you will probably need to address the catcher position from outside the organization (there's almost nothing from within right now).  Lucroy would do that, in addition to fortifying the 2015 team.  He's not a band-aid or rental.

 

Obviously that doesn't mean we should "overpay" to get him, but a pair of non-elite prospects (even good ones, like Kepler/Polanco) should not be out of the question if we like Lucroy.

 

I would do two good but non-elite prospects (ie Polanco and Kepler) for Lucroy in a heartbeat. Pretty sure the Brewers wouldn't agree. They would need May or Berrios for starters.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I would do two good but non-elite prospects (ie Polanco and Kepler) for Lucroy in a heartbeat.

Yes, I agree.  A lot of posters in this thread, though, seem to think otherwise.

[jorgenswest]

These kinds of discussions put the Twins in a position where any trade they make is viewed as a bad one. 

 

Brewers have two solid assets in Smith and Lucroy that they don't need to trade. They will need both next year. They can afford to extend Lucroy. Someone can come in and blow them away, but it is going to be a bad deal for that team in the long run. I don't want to be the team that offers May or Berrios plus others to get Lucroy. I don't want to trade Polanco or Kepler for a LOOGY.

 

[DocBauer]

I do think the Twins should take a shot at a young-ish catcher. I think it is much more likely to happen during the offseason when teams can sit back and evaluate and form a plan (FA also has an affect here) I would guess some pitching and possibly Plouffe would be involved.

 

Arcia is young, talented and intriguing still, despite also being maddening. I'm sure there are a lot of teams that feel the same way. But its the maddening part that keeps his value down as part of a deal, maybe, than a talented young big part of a deal.

 

He could easily end up the Twins 4th OF and primary DH next season. With Rosario, Hicks and Kepler as serious options, you dont need the classic 4th-5th archetype OF on the bench