So...now what from here?

[DocBauer]

I honestly didn't want to write this. It's probably 3 weeks too early. It should be written right at, around, or just at the conclusion of the All-Star game. But there have been sooooo many moves, posts, discussions and debates this past week, that the timing has been moved up.

 

What exactly are those moves, posts, discussions, and debates this week? Just as a refresher: Stauffer mercifully gone and Tonkin brought up (questionable about Tonkin), the forever Duensing/Duensing-forever debate, a recent slump of our beloved Twins (mostly due to suddenly disappearing offense), yet more endless-timely-warranted Mauer debate, promotion of Polanco for ONE GAME, (seriously? ONE F-ING GAME? No Bernier or Beresford up for a single game? Polanco? From AA for ONE GAME?  Absolutely, positively NO REASON...unless someone can offer one up...to make this move except for ONE THING...a time for the coaches to talk to him again, remind him of his future in the bigs, and to discuss how much they want him up and expect to bring him up in the future.), debates about the Twins being a legit contender or not, the draft, Santana's demotion to AAA, Santana pitching and stretching out at Ft Meyers (obviously different Santanas. Can we corner the market? How many would it take?), discussions about Rosario and actually sticking permanately, Hicks getting hurt, and of course...drum roll...the top Twins prospect, possibly the top prospect in all of baseball...Byron Buxton actually getting promoted to THE SHOW.

 

Probably missed a few subjects. But the Buxton move is what really, ultimately, pushed up this post.

 

For perspective...whether you like it or not...we need to rewind a bit. Yes...to be fair to all of us...and our future...we really have to. The Twins were one of the best teams in all of baseball in 2010 with a 94 & 68 record.Think about that for a moment. Despite all the angst shared by us as fans, we had one of the best teams, and best records, a scant 4 2/3 seasons ago. Bet there are a lot of Royals, Cubs, Pirates, Astros (and other) fans out there that would be damn jealous!  Like most all teams, the Twins lost a few players, tweaked the roster, but approached 2011 with the core of their 94 win team still intact, and expected/predicted to win the AL Central and be a contender. Honest reflection and memory kind of sucks doesn't it?

 

2012 is your debatable year...if you're really being honest about it all. After a disappointing season filled with injury after injury after injury, disappointment after disappointment after disappointment, you have TWO, and ONLY TWO choices facing you for 2012. Either your team will get healthy, and again, like all teams, you will tweak your roster a bit, and assume those tweaks and healthy ballplayers will lead you back to relevance again...OR...you will decide that tweaks and health will not make enough of a difference, and you should blow the whole thing up. Honestly, what would you do? 20/20 hindsight is great, but could you have really known and predicted what to do at that point?

 

Feel free to blast Ryan, the Twins in general, the stars, Karma, and anything else you want to regarding '13 & '14 and some of the moves, non moves, hype, BS and expectations involved. We all have at various points. What can't be denied is the past two seasons stunk, and there were good attempts at improving the club, some poor attempts, and some non attempts. There were also a few injuries that slowed at least some of the progress of change and potential change. 

 

So here we are...early as I stated for this article...but forced to examine what is what, and who is who, and what might be what, and how that may be how...due to a a series of events. This should be a transitional season for the Twins. And yet, it's also a possible, surprising, contention year for the Twins. (all teams have ebb and flow to their seasons, so I am in no way putting up a white flag after a couple poor games/weeks/debatable) Have there been disappointments and regression this year? Absolutely. But we also have some very nice ballplayers, including the recently promoted Buxton. (who I thought was another 2 weeks of hotness/consistency away from being promoted)

 

What do you think, realistically, happens, and what we need to do from here?

 

And don't tell me trade Nolasco for a top prospect future Ace, or that Duensing will yield a top 100 catching prospect. (of course, feel free to include Duensing, as per usual, in any or all trade/move scenarios. I am a bit of a traditionalist, after all) This is YOUR team and YOUR thread. You can kill it now. Or, you can own your team, and decide what best your team needs to do, should do, and what you hope will take place at this point.

 

I have my own thoughts, going forward for the remainder of the year, that I will gladly share. But I'd rather be the Twins 2015 baseball not quite to the halfway point yet but a lot of things have been going on Muse right now.

 

[nytwinsfan]

I think the starting outfield of the next few years is Buxton, Kepler, and Rosario, with maybe Walker or Hicks replacing/platooning with Rosario and/or Kepler. But I feel pretty good about those first three as high-likelihood starters.  I would be up for trading either of Walker or Hicks or Harrison, if the price is right. I would definitely take Arcia out of the outfield. I think we've all seen what a good outfield defense can bring to the table these last few weeks, and with Buxton that fact is only going to become more apparent. I think Dozier is set at second, and I think Polanco and Escobar will be the SS and utility infielder, although which is which is yet to be seen. Hopefully Polanco improves his defense to the point where he can start at SS and get his bat in the lineup. I have doubts about trading him because I think the market seriously underestimates his value. At 3B, I personally would trade Plouffe after this season and start Sano there. I know many here would not agree with that, and I think Terry Ryan may not either. Assuming Ryan does not, they are either going to (1) move Sano to DH or 1B, which may hurt his long term value, assuming he can't move back to 3B in 2.5 years when Plouffe leaves, (2) move Plouffe somewhere (outfield would be a mistake given the fast young hitters we have coming there, and DH and 1B he would lose a lot of value), or (3) have the two split 3B and DH, which I think is not the Twins style, and would prevent Sano from getting the continuing reps he needs at 3B. I have not given up on Joe Mauer yet at 1B, and I think he can be a decent, and maybe even average 1B. If his play continues to slide -- which I acknowledge is a distinct albeit depressing possibility, then either Vargas or Sano will need to take over. DH will depend on the outcome of all of the above, with possible candidates including Vargas, Arcia (if he reestablishes his bat the 2nd half of this season, and outhits Vargas), Sano, Plouffe, or possibly even Walker. Catcher is the biggest weakness in the organization, and as of now it looks like some combo of Turner, Garver, and maybe Alex Swim will be our future catchers, unless we trade for another one (A. Susac or K. Plawecki would be targets). All three seem solid defensively, with Turner having the best defense and probably the highest overall upside.

 

For the pitching staff, it is not realistic to consider Nolasco part of the future rotation. It is going to be Hughes (who like Mauer we have to hope will be his past self), Santana, May, Gibson, and Berrios. Milone or Nolasco may be 6th options if one of the first five is injured, but Nolasco better get used to working out of the pen assuming one of those five doesn't get injured, and Nolasco doesn't get traded. I see Meyer finishing this year in the pen, and trying one last time to start next year. I give him about a 15% chance of succeeding, in which case we move Santana, May or Hughes to the pen or trade Gibson.  Right now May looks like the best of those first three, but that could obviously change if Hughes returns to form of last year or Santana comes out strong.

 

As for the rest of the bullpen, Perkins is a given, and Boyer seems like he may stick, but other than Fein, the rest seems up for grabs. I think some names like Tonkin, Chargois, Z. Jones, Archter, Boozer, and Meyer are going to force the issue soon, and probably some others.

[jokin]

 

I think the starting outfield of the next few years is Buxton, Kepler, and Rosario, with maybe Walker or Hicks replacing/platooning with Rosario and/or Kepler. But I feel pretty good about those first three as high-likelihood starters.  I would be up for trading either of Walker or Hicks or Harrison, if the price is right. I would definitely take Arcia out of the outfield. I think we've all seen what a good outfield defense can bring to the table these last few weeks, and with Buxton that fact is only going to become more apparent. I think Dozier is set at second, and I think Polanco and Escobar will be the SS and utility infielder, although which is which is yet to be seen. Hopefully Polanco improves his defense to the point where he can start at SS and get his bat in the lineup. I have doubts about trading him because I think the market seriously underestimates his value. At 3B, I personally would trade Plouffe after this season and start Sano there. I know many here would not agree with that, and I think Terry Ryan may not either. Assuming Ryan does not, they are either going to (1) move Sano to DH or 1B, which may hurt his long term value, assuming he can't move back to 3B in 2.5 years when Plouffe leaves, (2) move Plouffe somewhere (outfield would be a mistake given the fast young hitters we have coming there, and DH and 1B he would lose a lot of value), or (3) have the two split 3B and DH, which I think is not the Twins style, and would prevent Sano from getting the continuing reps he needs at 3B. I have not given up on Joe Mauer yet at 1B, and I think he can be a decent, and maybe even average 1B. If his play continues to slide -- which I acknowledge is a distinct albeit depressing possibility, then either Vargas or Sano will need to take over. DH will depend on the outcome of all of the above, with possible candidates including Vargas, Arcia (if he reestablishes his bat the 2nd half of this season, and outhits Vargas), Sano, Plouffe, or possibly even Walker. Catcher is the biggest weakness in the organization, and as of now it looks like some combo of Turner, Garver, and maybe Alex Swim will be our future catchers, unless we trade for another one (A. Susac or K. Plawecki would be targets). All three seem solid defensively, with Turner having the best defense and probably the highest overall upside.

 

For the pitching staff, it is not realistic to consider Nolasco part of the future rotation. It is going to be Hughes (who like Mauer we have to hope will be his past self), Santana, May, Gibson, and Berrios. Milone or Nolasco may be 6th options if one of the first five is injured, but Nolasco better get used to working out of the pen assuming one of those five doesn't get injured, and Nolasco doesn't get traded. I see Meyer finishing this year in the pen, and trying one last time to start next year. I give him about a 15% chance of succeeding, in which case we move Santana, May or Hughes to the pen or trade Gibson.  Right now May looks like the best of those first three, but that could obviously change if Hughes returns to form of last year or Santana comes out strong.

 

As for the rest of the bullpen, Perkins is a given, and Boyer seems like he may stick, but other than Fein, the rest seems up for grabs. I think some names like Tonkin, Chargois, Z. Jones, Archter, Boozer, and Meyer are going to force the issue soon, and probably some others.

 

 

Great post.  I concur with just about everything, with the exception of :

 

1) Boyer, who seems like less than 50-50, probably closer to 1 in 3, that he can continue what he's done thus far. 

 

2) Hughes has been an every other year pitcher, and his two seam FB and cutter are lacking in movement and location this year.  Historically, he pitches better in the second half than the first, especially later in the season.    I'd expect him to settle back up closer to career norms going into the second half and bouncing back next year.

 

3) I'd also give Meyer a lot better than less than a 1 in 6 chance of becoming a starter.   Tall starters can struggle for years before getting down a consistent release point.  I just hope it's the Twins he starts for.

[brvama]

Doc excellent overview. After this article I know you have a Doctorate in history (baseball). Seriously well put and a very honest look back.

 

As I said earlier this spring, this year will prove to be the turning point of the recent angst. I believe that TR will do everything they can to continue the progress made so far, but I doubt very much that much will come from the outside via trades. I think after the ASG we will see the likes of Sano, Meyers and others deemed ready to have a MLB tryout. That could happen earlier if performance pushes the issue.

 

As far as improving the team, I truly believe that the bullpen will see the most changes first, unless there are injuries that necessitate other moves. I really don't foresee any trades for major players at this time. For some reason, I wouldn't be surprised to see Arcia traded though. Just a gut feeling.

 

While this run and position is great, I really think that the FO privately believes this is not a playoff team YET! Thus the rest of the year will be configured to remain in contention, but preparing for next year and beyond. No major changes outside, just ride with our prospects.

[jokin]

 

Doc excellent overview. After this article I know you have a Doctorate in history (baseball). Seriously well put and a very honest look back.

As I said earlier this spring, this year will prove to be the turning point of the recent angst. I believe that TR will do everything they can to continue the progress made so far, but I doubt very much that much will come from the outside via trades. I think after the ASG we will see the likes of Sano, Meyers and others deemed ready to have a MLB tryout. That could happen earlier if performance pushes the issue.

As far as improving the team, I truly believe that the bullpen will see the most changes first, unless there are injuries that necessitate other moves. I really don't foresee any trades for major players at this time. For some reason, I wouldn't be surprised to see Arcia traded though. Just a gut feeling.

While this run and position is great, I really think that the FO privately believes this is not a playoff team YET! Thus the rest of the year will be configured to remain in contention, but preparing for next year and beyond. No major changes outside, just ride with our prospects.

 

 

Good post, especially the call on trading Arcia.  I just hope they don't move him when his potential value is at rock bottom, like it is right now.

 

I would demur slightly on your last paragraph.  The Twins upped the payroll to nearly $110M for a reason.  If they stay respectably enough in the hunt, it seems they have already talked themselves into believing they did what they had to do to have a shot at post-season.  That being said, TR in the past has shown a penchant for making a Shannon Stewart type move out of nowhere to bolster a perceived weakness.   An offensive-minded catcher or SS would be a boon to this lineup.

 

(Plus, they will have a need and the incentive to make trades going into offseason in order to lighten the logjam of possible prospects needing 2016 roster spots in November. Perhaps they might want to get an early start on that chore.)

[Mike Sixel]

Didn't they say they only called him up due to a shortage of options? I don't see much changing soon this year. Heck, Duensing is on the roster......do we really think much has changed yet this year?

[Platoon]

One thought. As long as Plouffe and Mauer are here, where will Sano play. I doubt that they will DH him. I would love to see him up here, but he needs to play defense and they won't DH Plouffe and play Sano at third. Mauer is getting what, 23 mil with a no trade contract. He is not going anywhere. The Twins have some very big roster decisions to make. And their history of loyalty to veteran players does not make it any easier.

[jokin]

Didn't they say they only called him up due to a shortage of options? I don't see much changing soon this year. Heck, Duensing is on the roster......do we really think much has changed yet this year?

1) They have already dumped Stauffer

2) They have kept Schafer in seemingly permanent limbo

3) They have made the first decisively fast DL move since I don't know when (Hicks)

4) They have called up and stuck with Rosario, despite not "mastering" AA or AAA

5) They have shipped out Nolasco twice to the DL already this year

6) They have been able to call up an actual MLBSP from AAA depth

7) They have called up their very best prospect, despite not "mastering" AA or AAA, missing last season, still only 21, etc.

8) They have signed yet another proven MLBSP, who takes the mound for the Twins for the first time, just 3 weeks from today

[brvama]

Jokin, you could be absolutely correct on potential moves this summer. And I agree with your targets of catcher and SS. The logjam is certainly a future issue and TR may very well start early to use that to his advantage. Personally I think a run this year may be a bit premature despite our current position. Whatever trades or changes made need to be also dedicated to sutures success.

[Sam Morley]

 

Good post, especially the call on trading Arcia.  I just hope they don't move him when his potential value is at rock bottom, like it is right now.

 

How can Arcia's value be rebuilt? I love Arcia, but do you think he will have much opportunity going forward with the Twins? 

 

This is a good post and thread. I don't have much to add. I like Trevor Plouffe, I like that he's one of our draft picks, and that he came up through our system. I'm really happy he's turned into a good player. But, I want to see Miguel Sano wearing a Twins #24 jersey playing third base, like, yesterday. It would be great if there was some convenient solution that involved keeping Plouffe. But there is not room for him in the outfield (he's balls slow anyway). There is the other corner over there- so in my mind it comes down to Plouffe or Mauer. I think in the recent past, a lot of people have said we should wait to see if Plouffe's value goes up and then trade him; and now that his value is up, people don't want to see him go. I think we should stick to our past instincts on Plouffe. His value is up now. Trade him now. Bring up Sano. I think there's obvious risk with that move because the team is doing well and Plouffe is a significant part of that, but Sano is a generational talent, so I think there is a good enough chance the team could improve even immediately. 

[jokin]

Whatever trades or changes made need to be also dedicated to sutures success.

Totally agree. It would be foolish to make any kind of "all-in" move. But that has never been TR's style.

 

But think about this. This logjam is going to grow ever more serious both this offseason and next. Even minor decisions already made this season could end up having enough impact to make a difference in the final W-L record. For example, LHRP Sean Gilmartin is currently throwing for the Mets with a 2.01 ERA and a 9.72 K/9 against lefties so far. The Twins decided to go with Duensing, Thompson, T-Bar and Ryan O'Rourke as their primary LHRP depth options. This seemed like a strange move at the time, and still seems to be, what with giving up 6 years of potential control of a former 1st Round LHP draft pick. A couple minor moves that represent clear current upgrades in the pen for team-friendly contracts or a player with extra years of player control in exchange for some of the excess prospects now in the system, might serve both the short-term and the near-future.

 

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statsplits.aspx?playerid=12781&position=P&season=2015

[jokin]

How can Arcia's value be rebuilt? I love Arcia, but do you think he will have much opportunity going forward with the Twins?

Arcia will build value by hitting in AAA like he did in both 2014 and 2015, and then continuing a power surge in the majors like he did last season. For the Twins, it's looking increasingly more likely that thus would be as a DH on the Twins, but should Rosario falter, he still might have a shot at reclaiming LF for the remainder of this season. Teams looking for a cheap LH power bat might be tempted to kick the tires if his bat shows signs of life here in the next few weeks. Heck, Delmon Young still somehow has a job playing for Buck Showalter.

[nytwinsfan]

 

Great post.  I concur with just about everything, with the exception of :

 

1) Boyer, who seems like less than 50-50, probably closer to 1 in 3, that he can continue what he's done thus far. 

 

2) Hughes has been an every other year pitcher, and his two seam FB and cutter are lacking in movement and location this year.  Historically, he pitches better in the second half than the first, especially later in the season.    I'd expect him to settle back up closer to career norms going into the second half and bouncing back next year.

 

3) I'd also give Meyer a lot better than less than a 1 in 6 chance of becoming a starter.   Tall starters can struggle for years before getting down a consistent release point.  I just hope it's the Twins he starts for.

 

Thanks. I checked Boyer's stats a little more closely, and his FIP is pretty high (above 4), suggesting you may be right. Fair point.

 

As for Hughes, I really hope you are right, and I do expect him to improve both the second half of this year and next year. I just don't expect him to return to 2014 levels, or honestly near-2014 levels. I found the recent Fangraphs article on this pretty convincing. That being said, I think he could easily be a mid-rotation starter, with periods of more, and I also would LOVE to be completely wrong.

 

For Meyer, I know that about tall, lanky starters, I just think the Twins will probably only give him one more shot to start, so I don't think it is like he is going to be working towards becoming a starter until 2018. Maybe if they kept trying him as a starter until then the chances would be 30-40%, but I think they will only give him one more shot, and then put him into a bullpen roll where he has the chance to be dominant.

 

Overall, sounds like we are 95% on the same page though.

[nytwinsfan]

 

 

How can Arcia's value be rebuilt? I love Arcia, but do you think he will have much opportunity going forward with the Twins? 

 

This is a good post and thread. I don't have much to add. I like Trevor Plouffe, I like that he's one of our draft picks, and that he came up through our system. I'm really happy he's turned into a good player. But, I want to see Miguel Sano wearing a Twins #24 jersey playing third base, like, yesterday. It would be great if there was some convenient solution that involved keeping Plouffe. But there is not room for him in the outfield (he's balls slow anyway). There is the other corner over there- so in my mind it comes down to Plouffe or Mauer. I think in the recent past, a lot of people have said we should wait to see if Plouffe's value goes up and then trade him; and now that his value is up, people don't want to see him go. I think we should stick to our past instincts on Plouffe. His value is up now. Trade him now. Bring up Sano. I think there's obvious risk with that move because the team is doing well and Plouffe is a significant part of that, but Sano is a generational talent, so I think there is a good enough chance the team could improve even immediately. 

 

I agree, except on the timing. Sano is still making a lot of errors and although his bat is ready, there is a decent chance he would stumble at the plate at first, during what appears to be a pennant race, and Plouffe's bat is also doing really well right now. Better to call Sano up as a DH/pinch-hitter, occasional 3B in blowouts for September, trade Plouffe in the offseason, and then start Sano at 3B next year.  That being said, I think Ryan and the Twins organization like Plouffe too much, so I think they will try to move him or Sano to another position. I think that's a bad idea, but I think it is most likely how this plays out (unfortunately).

[Sam Morley]

 

I agree, except on the timing. Sano is still making a lot of errors and although his bat is ready, there is a decent chance he would stumble at the plate at first, during what appears to be a pennant race, and Plouffe's bat is also doing really well right now. Better to call Sano up as a DH/pinch-hitter, occasional 3B in blowouts for September, trade Plouffe in the offseason, and then start Sano at 3B next year.  That being said, I think Ryan and the Twins organization like Plouffe too much, so I think they will try to move him or Sano to another position. I think that's a bad idea, but I think it is most likely how this plays out (unfortunately).

Ryan has never budged at all on Sano playing third. He's been pretty adamant about him staying there, from everything I've read. I think if they had any inclination about moving him elsewhere, they would do it now. Why keep playing him at a position where you don't plan for him to play? He hasn't even had a sniff at first, not even with Dalton Hicks out. If his main weakness is occasional sloppiness at third, he needs to keep playing third until he's polished. He can't come up and DH/pinch hit/garb time. From the footage I've seen, and everything I've ever read, he absolutely has the chops athletically to play third. Even checking the box scores, he's regularly on the starting end of double plays. I think the bulk of his errors came early in the season. I usually check the Chattanooga box scores daily and they've been much less frequent. What makes you think that TR like Plouffe so much he wouldn't trade him? You might be right, I'm just wondering what makes you say that. I'm sure they do like him a lot. I like him a lot too. I don't think they're really liking him will keep them from making the best decision. I think that TR is capable of moving him if it's the best thing to do. I think you could be right about stalling on the Sano/Plouffe situation until the offseason, but I think that would be a mistake. Not a terrible mistake, just an annoying one to me who wants to see Sano now.

[Sam Morley]

 

Arcia will build value by hitting in AAA like he did in both 2014 and 2015, and then continuing a power surge in the majors like he did last season. For the Twins, it's looking increasingly more likely that thus would be as a DH on the Twins, but should Rosario falter, he still might have a shot at reclaiming LF for the remainder of this season. Teams looking for a cheap LH power bat might be tempted to kick the tires if his bat shows signs of life here in the next few weeks. Heck, Delmon Young still somehow has a job playing for Buck Showalter.

Yeah, I agree. I hope you are right. I think that's all possible. I hope he rebuilds his value and stays with the team. Well, I don't think he will rebuild value by hitting at AAA other than it being a neccesary step to getting back to the show. I think the only place for him to rebuild value is in the big leagues. And, it seems like he has his work cut out for him getting back. I think Rosario would really have to tank for Arcia to take his spot. Rosario is far and away better defensively and has always been a more highly regarded prospect. I definitely don't want to see Rosario falter so that Arcia can get another shot. Arcia is still really young. It's hard to imagine the type of realistic return we would get that would be worth the risk giving up on him at such a young age. 

 

Oh, and Delmon can hit.

[Otwins]

My feeling on trading Plouffe depends on what can you get for him? Would he bring a young catcher then I would trade him. If I could not get good value in a mid season trade then I would move Plouffe to first Sano plays third and DH Mauer. Better than DHing Escobar, Nunez

[jimbo92107]

If the Twins falter badly post All Star, that's when TR might trade Plouffe to a contender and bring up Sano. Otherwise, if the team is still in contention for a division title, I don't see them rocking the boat that much. Plouffe has been so solid fielding, and before this team slump was hitting quite well. Maybe September for Sano, if he's on a tear at the plate...

 

I agree that Aaron Hicks is now competing with Max Kepler and possibly AB Walker for the future RF spot. Hicks better learn to wave that bat better pretty soon, or he'll be platooning with younger guys, then be out of time.

 

Arcia is gone. He doesn't fit this team, which absolutely requires good hitters that can field above average. As a mediocre fielder, Arcia would need to hit at an All Star pace to stick around. He doesn't.

 

Rosario is a keeper. Great bat, good OF. Vargas needs to figure out situational hitting better. He looks smart enough to do it, so crossing fingers.

 

My idea for Joe Mauer is too radical, so I figure I'm just rationalizing. I'd like him to voluntarily go down to AA and spend a month mashing lesser pitching into the stands. Maybe he could develop that power stroke he's been looking for. Stupid, huh? Sadly, it ain't working at the mlb level. He's just not a power hitter, and that's what they need at 1B.

 

This team actually has some pretty good starters. Pelfrey, Gibson and May are good, and Hughes should be. Santana looked great in spring, and should be right up there with the rest. Milone I don't know about. Berrios might be better.

 

The relievers could change a lot if the team starts losing. Meyer might take Fien's place. You could get real value for Perkins, then bring up Burdi. Naw, probably not.

[Platoon]

Arcia is very young. In all likelihood the "mental aspect of hitting" light will go on some day. When it does, I hope it is here. Or he will join another in an increasingly long list of players who people preface the story with "former Twin"! Given a choice between Arcia, Vargas, and Plouffe, eventually it would be Arcia. He has elite power, and in the past has hit for average. As for Plouffe, he is a very respectable third baseman. Is Sano going to come up and play as well as Plouffe does now? NO! And neither did Plouffe at that age. But as one poster mentioned, Sano is likely a generational player. Sano is actually not Plouffes problem, Mauer is. In a normal situation Plouffe would move to first. But the Mauer problem appears unsolvable. You want more out of the DH spot than he now seems capable of. And I don't think it's coming back. I am a big Mauer fan, but the concussion and catching aging seems to have taken its toll. So unless something unforeseen happens it leaves Plouffe as the odd man out.

[mikecgrimes]

I think plouffe could go in August but almost no chance we will be more then 5 games outside the wild card July 31. People are way too eager to write this season off after the losing streak. This is a good team in a 2 wild card league. You don't pass off opportunities to make the playoffs. With Santana's suspension and even hunters we have a lot of extra money to spend. I expect nothing less then the playoffs and I don't need mauer or even Buxton to do much to get there.

[Blackjack]

 

 

What do you think, realistically, happens, and what we need to do from here?

 

 

Good post Doc!!!

 

This whole being in contention thing kind of muddies the water doesn’t it? I would be nice to just say play the young guys but being only a few games out is a nice problem to have!!

 

What do I think will realistically happen??

 

The bullpen needs to get cleaned up!! Listening to the Twins this weekend none of the relievers not named Fien or Perkins could get anybody out, a few more bad appearances and Duensing and Thompson are gone.  They’ll keep bringing up relievers until they get some reliable help.  Meyer will be up in August, working out of the pen, if he keeps doing well – and the Twins are still in contention.

 

Outfield will be Rosario, Buxton, Hunter, with Hicks or Robinson in reserve, unless Buxton falls on his face and gets sent down in July. 

 

The whole Plouffe/Sano debate will wait until September, barring an injury to Plouffe.  Then Sano will get called up and if plays even ok then Plouffe will get traded in the off season.

 

The DH battle will be between Vargas and Arcia, if Vargas plays well Arcia spends the rest of the year in the minors, if Vargas falters AND Arcia is playing well, he gets called up.  Then one of them gets dealt in the off-season.

 

Joe Mauer is not going anywhere, live with it.

 

This team will go as far as the starting pitching will carry them. Hughes, May, Gibson are givens to start the rest of the year. Santana too when he comes back - lets hope he doesn’t have a PEDS, or lack of, letdown!!  Nolassco with his contract will pitch when he gets back from injury. I think Milone gets traded or sent down. Pelfrey controls his own destiny, a couple more bad starts and he gets sent to the pen, a couple more good starts and he keeps starting and someone else will get 'hurt'. 

 

This post should be revisited at the end of July, with the tough schedule coming up, and the unknown of Santana coming back, I think by the trade deadline things will be clearer.

 

[Mike Sixel]

I'd put Milone in the bullpen when Santana is back, and cut Duensing. People type week after week that Duesning will be gone soon, and no matter how bad the performance, he's not yet......

 

What I think will happen......some more promotions, but slowly trickling up here. From what they say, they didn't even want to promote Buxton at this point, not sure why we would expect anyone else to come up, other than maybe a RP (barring injuries, of course).

[TheLeviathan]

They need to fix the bullpen, if they don't we will be sellers by the all star game.

 

Buxton helps balance the lineup tremendously once he starts hitting lead off.

[Linus]

As long as we are in contention, you worry about this year.  Put the lineup out there that gives you the best chance to win today's game and chase it for as long as it lasts.  Baseball is a funny game - you don't know when a team makes a run so you better chase it when you can.

 

I will clarify this by saying I wouldn't do anything that negatively impacts our future to chase this run, and, if we drop out of contention you shift gears and start making moves for 2016.

 

 

[spinowner]

My guess that the FO will decide or has already decided not to trade to improve the 2015 major league team. (I'm not addressing whether they should or not.) If that is the case I think Plouffe should and will be traded before July 31. His on-field performance and therefore his value in a trade are higher than ever, I'm guessing probably near his career peak. If the team doesn't want to put Sano on the 25-man just yet Nunez and/or Bernier will place-hold for the rest of this season.

[Vanimal46]

Overall I've been pleased as a fan this season because we're finally seeing a majority of the kids we've been talking about for the last 2-3 years. I agree with a lot of the commenters on this thread that we should continue the path we're on, and potentially only trade a Plouffe, Arcia, depth OF type at the deadline or this off-season. My short list of things I want to see at the end of this season: #1) I want Buxton to stick in CF the rest of the year and let him grow. #2) I want to see what Sano can do on the MLB club. If he's up by August/September, I will consider this season a good transition into being legitimate contenders next year and beyond.  

[Shane Wahl]

The only things I know I would do are the promotion of Sano and Polanco in the next month or so. It gets hard with any kind of trade speculation or injury issues about calling up pitchers like Rogers, Duffey, and Berrios.

 

And they keep trying to ruin Lester Oliveros by starting him (what the hell is that about anyway?).

 

I wish that both Suzuki and Pelfrey were tradeable.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I'd put Milone in the bullpen when Santana is back, and cut Duensing.

The problem with that idea is that it's not a good use of resources.

 

Tommy Milone career splits:

 

RHB OPS: .746

 

LHB OPS: ... ... ... uh... .746

 

While he'll almost certainly be better than Duensing - who needs to be cut soon unless he does a complete reversal - it'd be a poor use of Milone to put him in a LOOGY role where he won't be particularly good. Keep him as a starter and he'll have more value, particularly if you feel the need to trade him.

 

The Twins need a guy who can get lefties out and that guy isn't Tommy Milone. His stuff, peripherals, and career splits indicate a guy who needs to start to have any value.

[Mike Sixel]

 

The problem with that idea is that it's not a good use of resources.

 

Tommy Milone career splits:

 

RHB OPS: .746

 

LHB OPS: ... ... ... uh... .746

 

While he'll almost certainly be better than Duensing - who needs to be cut soon unless he does a complete reversal - it'd be a poor use of Milone to put him in a LOOGY role where he won't be particularly good. Keep him as a starter and he'll have more value, particularly if you feel the need to trade him.

 

The Twins need a guy who can get lefties out and that guy isn't Tommy Milone. His stuff, peripherals, and career splits indicate a guy who needs to start to have any value.

 

Well, I'd expect his velocity to change if he's in the bullpen, but fair enough.

 

He's not in their long term plans to be a regular starter, from what we can tell. So either he's the swing man between MN and AAA that comes up when needed, or traded, or moved to the bullpen.......

 

Either way, please get rid of Duensing already......

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Well, I'd expect his velocity to change if he's in the bullpen, but fair enough.

 

He's not in their long term plans to be a regular starter, from what we can tell. So either he's the swing man between MN and AAA that comes up when needed, or traded, or moved to the bullpen.......

 

Either way, please get rid of Duensing already......

He might gain a bit on his fastball from the pen but even if he adds 2mph to his velocity, he's still only an 89mph fastball pitcher. I don't know if that would make even a slight difference in his overall performance.

 

But yeah, Duensing needs to go and soon. The biggest problem is that I have no idea who replaces him. Logan Darnell? Ryan O'Roarke? Ish.