So...now what from here?

[Mike Sixel]

 

He might gain a bit on his fastball from the pen but even if he adds 2mph to his velocity, he's still only an 89mph fastball pitcher. I don't know if that would make even a slight difference in his overall performance.

 

But yeah, Duensing needs to go and soon. The biggest problem is that I have no idea who replaces him. Logan Darnell? Ryan O'Roarke? Ish.

 

Why does it have to be a loogy, and not just someone that can get outs?

 

Or, better yet, how about a hitter......

[TNTwinsFan]

How about Plouffe to SS?!

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Why does it have to be a loogy, and not just someone that can get outs?

 

Or, better yet, how about a hitter......

The Twins need someone who can get lefties out on a regular basis. It's pretty much a necessity in a good pen. The Twins don't have that guy right now and that's a problem.

 

The pitcher doesn't need to be left-handed but that certainly helps. A right-hander who is good at getting lefties out is usually a good reliever, period... And that's not a guy you want to waste in a LOOGY or early inning role unless your entire bullpen is outstanding, which the Twins' bullpen is... not.

 

Actually, I just double-checked Thompson's LHB splits for 2015. They're much better than I expected (SSS warning!). Move him into the LOOGY role. It certainly can't be worse than Duensing. Thompson doesn't strike out as many guys as you'd like but neither does Duensing so whatever.

[Platoon]

I think plouffe could go in August but almost no chance we will be more then 5 games outside the wild card July 31. People are way too eager to write this season off after the losing streak. This is a good team in a 2 wild card league. You don't pass off opportunities to make the playoffs. With Santana's suspension and even hunters we have a lot of extra money to spend. I expect nothing less then the playoffs and I don't need mauer or even Buxton to do much to get there.

I don't think the "losing streak" is the problem. The problem is the Twins are running out of losing teams to play, and are going to have to start playing with the big boys. You can squeak by with some overachieving #3 and 4 starters for awhile, with a great BP, and a decent offense. But the bull pen is not great and there is no offense. This offensive (and I use the word in both definitions) offense is the Rubics Cube of baseball. No matter where you move someone, you create another issue. But unlike the Rubics Cube, there is no definitive result.

[DaveW]

 

Arcia will build value by hitting in AAA like he did in both 2014 and 2015, and then continuing a power surge in the majors like he did last season. For the Twins, it's looking increasingly more likely that thus would be as a DH on the Twins, but should Rosario falter, he still might have a shot at reclaiming LF for the remainder of this season. Teams looking for a cheap LH power bat might be tempted to kick the tires if his bat shows signs of life here in the next few weeks. Heck, Delmon Young still somehow has a job playing for Buck Showalter.

Yeah, there is certainly a space for Rosario on a major league roster somewhere eventually, I doubt the Twins get some primo talent in return for a trade for him, but maybe they could get a high risk/change of scenery high reward ex prospect or something (Think a Mike Montgomery type)

[SwainZag]

 

The only things I know I would do are the promotion of Sano and Polanco in the next month or so. It gets hard with any kind of trade speculation or injury issues about calling up pitchers like Rogers, Duffey, and Berrios.

 

And they keep trying to ruin Lester Oliveros by starting him (what the hell is that about anyway?).

 

I wish that both Suzuki and Pelfrey were tradeable.

 

Trying to ruin or not, the line he put up in his last start wouldn't have mattered if he started or not.  5 runs, 2 HR and got exactly zero outs.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Trying to ruin or not, the line he put up in his last start wouldn't have mattered if he started or not.  5 runs, 2 HR and got exactly zero outs.

I'm not so sure of that. Since becoming a starter a few weeks ago, Oliveros has pitched 7.2 innings in three starts (ughhhhh) while giving up 15 runs (holy moly, Batman!).

 

Some guys just aren't starting material and the preparation for the player is completely different. I'm not sure why they're starting Oliveros at all. He should be locked in for an upcoming promotion to the Twins' bullpen, not starting games in Rochester.

[Vance_Christianson]

The Twins need a real SS! I think I'd be looking to trade Jorge Polanco or Danny Santana with 2 more prospects for the likes an MLB ready SS.

Terry Ryan type Ideas:

Jed Lowrie - Astro's, projected to return in early July. Solid Defense, and a fairly reliable bat

Jimmy Rollins - getting old, but him with Hunter could be fun too watch. Dodgers want Seager up!

 

My Ideas:

Starlin Castro - Top SS in AL if we did this! Trade Jorge Polanco, Alex Meyer, Travis Harrison, and top 30-40 prospect

Travis D'Arnaud - Catcher with some Pop and above average pop! Trade Oswaldo Arcia, Danny Santana, Stephen Golsaves

 

Few Ideas

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

The Twins need a real SS! I think I'd be looking to trade Jorge Polanco or Danny Santana with 2 more prospects for the likes an MLB ready SS.

Or you just keep them both and hope one becomes a cost-controlled shortstop fixture for 6-7 years on the cheap.

 

Is winning in 2015 really so important that the Twins should mortgage their future, a future that looks almost blindingly bright?

 

I'm all for shoring up minor problems on the team this season but trading away two possible starters at a premium position for help today seems rather foolhardy and short-sighted.

[Vance_Christianson]

 

Or you just keep them both and hope one becomes a cost-controlled shortstop fixture for 6-7 years on the cheap.

 

Is winning in 2015 really so important that the Twins should mortgage their future, a future that looks almost blindingly bright?

 

I'm all for shoring up minor problems on the team this season but trading away two possible starters at a premium position for help today seems rather foolhardy and short-sighted.

So trading Jorge Polanco plus 2 other top 15 prospects for Starlin Castro is a bad idea? Castro is only 25-26 years old. Fit right into our scheme of rebuilding this team. Jorge and Danny could only wish they were as good as Castro. I didn't say trade Jorge for Rollins or Jed. Rollins or Jed, could be 2 guys that TR looks to steal away from those 2 teams for practically nothing. We only do this if we are still in contention at the time, and right now we are.

[Mike Sixel]

How is trading 2 SS prospects for an actual SS mortgaging the future, Brock? If you get an actual SS back, that isn't old, mortgaging the future?

 

btw, I don't think that deal happens for Castro.....

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

So trading Jorge Polanco plus 2 other top 15 prospects for Starlin Castro is a bad idea? Castro is only 25-26 years old. Fit right into our scheme of rebuilding this team. Jorge and Danny could only wish they were as good as Castro. I didn't say trade Jorge for Rollins or Jed. Rollins or Jed, could be 2 guys that TR looks to steal away from those 2 teams for practically nothing. We only do this if we are still in contention at the time, and right now we are.

Why would another team trade a cost-controlled shortstop for a shortstop prospect that is nearly MLB-ready?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

How is trading 2 SS prospects for an actual SS mortgaging the future, Brock? If you get an actual SS back, that isn't old, mortgaging the future?

If you can explain to me why a team would trade a cost-controlled shortstop for a AA/AAA shortstop prospect, I'm all ears.

 

Nobody is going to trade Polanco for a decent cost-controlled shortstop. Which means you need to start thinking about giving up somebody like Berrios or Gonsalves instead...

 

If someone approached Terry Ryan about trading Brian Dozier for a AA second baseman, he'd be laughed out of the room, and rightly so. It's a nonsensical move for the team trading away MLB talent.

[Mike Sixel]

 

If you can explain to me why a team would trade a cost-controlled shortstop for a AA/AAA shortstop prospect, I'm all ears.

 

Nobody is going to trade Polanco for a decent cost-controlled shortstop. Which means you need to start thinking about giving up somebody like Berrios or Gonsalves instead...

 

I did say I didn't think it would happen, but that was the trade the poster posted......

 

Frankly, I want a catcher, and I'd give up good prospects to get the right one, if only there was one to get......

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I did say I didn't think it would happen, but that was the trade the poster posted......

 

Frankly, I want a catcher, and I'd give up good prospects to get the right one, if only there was one to get......

Absolutely. In no way am I suggesting the Twins shouldn't make a move - particularly if it's a long-term solution - but trading shortstop-for-shortstop is nonsensical.

 

The Twins already have shortstop prospects. Quite a few of them, actually. The smart money is banking on one of them contributing in the near future and trading away excess (starting pitching, maybe?) for a position devoid of prospects. As you pointed out, catcher is a good place to start.

[Vance_Christianson]

 

Why would another team trade a cost-controlled shortstop for a shortstop prospect that is nearly MLB-ready?

Cubbies want and need pitching, so that's why I added Alex Meyer. Alex Meyer will be the main name in this trade. I'd trade Alex Meyer, Kohl Stewart (1st round bust I think), and Danny Santanna. If that's not enough, throw in a top 30-40 prospect in our organization. Alex Meyer gives them hope as a 5th Starter, or a dominent RP arm. Kohl Stewart 1st round talent, trade before the word BUST gets any bigger on him, and Danny Santana.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Cubbies want and need pitching, so that's why I added Alex Meyer. Alex Meyer will be the main name in this trade. I'd trade Alex Meyer, Kohl Stewart (1st round bust I think), and Danny Santanna. If that's not enough, throw in a top 30-40 prospect in our organization. Alex Meyer gives them hope as a 5th Starter, or a dominent RP arm. Kohl Stewart 1st round talent, trade before the word BUST gets any bigger on him, and Danny Santana.

You're trading off two players (Stewart and Meyer) whose value is at an all-time low right now. That's a terrible strategy.

 

And I'm still not sure why the Cubs would give up Castro for any reason. My biggest beef with trade ideas is that so little thought is put into "why on earth would the other team do such a thing?"

 

And right now, is Castro even an upgrade over what the Twins are rolling out nightly? Yeah, his upside is certainly higher but the dude has been struggling mightily this season. The Cubs should be reluctant to trade him for the same reasons the Twins shouldn't trade Meyer or Stewart.

[laloesch]

 

Cubbies want and need pitching, so that's why I added Alex Meyer. Alex Meyer will be the main name in this trade. I'd trade Alex Meyer, Kohl Stewart (1st round bust I think), and Danny Santanna. If that's not enough, throw in a top 30-40 prospect in our organization. Alex Meyer gives them hope as a 5th Starter, or a dominent RP arm. Kohl Stewart 1st round talent, trade before the word BUST gets any bigger on him, and Danny Santana.

 

Crazy.  You would trade Kohl Stewart Alex Meyer AND Danny Santana for Castro?  REALLY?  That's a bad deal for the Twins.

[d-mac]

Here's my thought's going forward the rest of the year and into 2016 and beyond. We should absolutely be building for the future- not trading off pieces for a run this year. This team isn't going to hit enough or miss enough bats from the mound to be legitimate contenders the rest of the year. However, their hot May will put them squarely in the discussion for a Wild Card spot (f*** you, Bud Selig) and the FO may make some desperation moves to try to hold on to their playoff spot after 4 straight 90+ loosing seasons and cratering attendance numbers.

 

 

That being said, Here's how I'd do things if I was the GM.

 

 

1.) Blow up the bullpen- the fact that it hasn't imploded is no small miracle- the Twin's bullpen is 30th in xFIP and K/9 rate by a significant margin. There are a more than a number of capable hard-throwers in AAA and AA. Use the rest of the year trying out for positions on the next great Twins' bullpen- there is no reason they should be using all their bullets up in meaningless minor league games while our big-league bullpen couldn't strikeout their own grandmothers. Furthermore, I'd entertain good trade offers for Glen Perkins. He has served admirably as the All-Star closer on some of the worst Twins' teams in recent memory, but the farther away he gets from being 30, the slower that ball is going to come out of his left hand. Get some value where we can.

 

 

2.) I would trade Arcia once his value comes back up a bit. We have no room for a poor defensive corner outfielder on this team. Maybe we could flip him and Perkins to a contender for a catching prospect?

 

 

3.) I wouldn't count on Vargas or Danny Santana contributing to our next contending Twins' team.

 

 

4.) I wouldn't make any moves regarding the Sano/Plouffe/Mauer love-triangle. I'd let that play out first. Can Mauer return to an above average league hitter? Will Rosario be able to hit enough to maintain a corner outfield spot on a contending big league team (I am dubious about that, sure he's hit great thus far, but his BABIP has been very high and his BB/K ratio is horrendous- He might be this year's Danny Santana)? Can Sano stick defensively at 3rd? If Mauer holds returns to pre-concussion form or Rosario fails, then you can consider moving Plouffe to LF a la Alex Gordon. If Rosario sticks in left, and Mauer becomes unmovable at 1st- either due to success or because of his contract and Sano's defense isn't good enough- then I'd consider moving Sano to RF or a move to DH (gasp!). The goal shouldn't be to maximize Sano's WAR, the goal should be to put the 9 best hitters as possinle on the field while maximizing defense. Plouffe is an established top 10 MLB 3rd basemen, with above average to plus defense. Replacing him with Sano's lesser defense, while potentially having holes in LF, RF, DH, and 1st seems silly to me.

 

 

5.) The pitching situation is murkier, yet. It doesn't look like this future rotation will have a true ace- Jose Berrios looks like our only shot a front line starter at this point (but probably only a #2), as Meyer is likely a bullpen piece. Trevor May looks like a quality #3rd, possibly a #2. Gibson is likely #3/4. 2014 appears to be a flash in the pan for Phil Hughes and he's turned back into the pumpkin that he was in New York. He's a #4 at this point- if he ever rediscovers that he has a curveball, otherwise he's too homer-prone to be anything more than a #5 on a contending team. I'm worried about Ervin Santana's health long term. As you'll recall, he is often cited as one of the few pitchers that "rest and rehab" worked after suffering a UCL injury. Now that we know he was juicing, I'm waiting for that other shoe to drop. But if healthy, he's likely an inconsistent #3.

 

 

6.) Other lesser roster moves we should make- Pinto should have been the starting catcher in spring training- I would call him up and see how he does the rest of year- can he be a fulltime catcher, or is he more of a Ryan Doumit type- a DH that can catch? I'd move up Polanco, Berrios, and Sano to AAA. They have both mastered AA and have nothing left to show there. Polanco should probably get called up after the All-Star break to be the fulltime SS.

 

 

So here is what my roster would look like as of next year.

 

C- Prospect traded for/Pinto
1st- Mauer/Sano
2nd- Dozier
3rd- Plouffe/Sano
SS- Polanco
LF- Rosario/Plouffe/Kepler
CF- Buxton
RF- Sano/Plouffe/Kepler
DH- Sano/Pinto/Mauer

 

Bench- 4th OF- Hicks
IF- Escobar
DH/2ndC/PH- Pinto
LH Bat- FA

 

Starting Rotation-
Berrios
May
Santana
Gibson
Hughes

 

Bullpen- Some Combination of:
Meyer
Taylor Rogers (Lefty Specialist)
Theilbar
Tonkin
Achter
Oliveros
Zach Jones
Nick Burdi
Jake Reed
JT Chargois

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

2014 appears to be a flash in the pan for Phil Hughes and he's turned back into the pumpkin that he was in New York. He's a #4 at this point- if he ever rediscovers that he has a curveball, otherwise he's too homer-prone to be anything more than a #5 on a contending team.

Phil Hughes' lack of strikeouts is far more concerning than his home run rate, which currently sits at a career high 13.3%.

 

Yeah, that's right. His 2015 HR/FB rate is higher than any season he posted in Yankee Stadium. That will not continue.

 

But the lack of missed bats is becoming more concerning by the day. His 2015 number of 14.5 K% is a full five points lower than his career mark.

 

In the past seven seasons, Hughes' fastball has clocked 92 or higher every year but two: his injury-riddled 2011 campaign and this season. What does that mean? I don't know. It could be a decline trend (though Hughes is still quite young) or it could mean that something might be wrong with Phil. Whether it's physical, his delivery, or something else, I do not know.

[d-mac]

 

Phil Hughes' lack of strikeouts is far more concerning than his home run rate, which currently sits at a career high 13.3%.

 

Yeah, that's right. His 2015 HR/FB rate is higher than any season he posted in Yankee Stadium. That will not continue.

 

But the lack of missed bats is becoming more concerning by the day. His 2015 number of 14.5 K% is a full five points lower than his career mark.

 

In the past seven seasons, Hughes' fastball has clocked 92 or higher every year but two: his injury-riddled 2011 campaign and this season. What does that mean? I don't know. It could be a decline trend (though Hughes is still quite young) or it could mean that something might be wrong with Phil. Whether it's physical, his delivery, or something else, I do not know.

 

I guess I was wrong about him not throwing his curveball as much this year- Looking at Pitch f/x it looks to be about the same usage as last year. But his velocity is down, and he also appears to be favoring a two-seamer over his reliable 4-seamer this year. There just isn't enough movement on his cutter and velocity difference to make much of a discernible difference between his pitches. If his velocity is down he needs to use his curveball more to set up the fastball. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

I guess I was wrong about him not throwing his curveball as much this year- Looking at Pitch f/x it looks to be about the same usage as last year. But his velocity is down, and he also appears to be favoring a two-seamer over his reliable 4-seamer this year. There just isn't enough movement on his cutter and velocity difference to make much of a discernible difference between his pitches. If his velocity is down he needs to use his curveball more to set up the fastball. 

 

For some reason he has changed his FB mix, even though everything went great last year......sometimes you stick with what's working, and make tiny changes.....

[Brock Beauchamp]

For some reason he has changed his FB mix, even though everything went great last year......sometimes you stick with what's working, and make tiny changes.....

It should be noted that this has been a criticism of Hughes throughout his career.

 

He has the stuff to succeed but he changes his approach on a near-yearly basis, often to his detriment.

[USAFChief]

 

For some reason he has changed his FB mix, even though everything went great last year......sometimes you stick with what's working, and make tiny changes.....

Has he really changed his FB mix, or has the velocity decrease led to mislabling his four seamer as a two seamer?

[Mike Sixel]

Has he really changed his FB mix, or has the velocity decrease led to mislabling his four seamer as a two seamer?

I

 

He did an interview where he said he changed his mix.

[DocBauer]

One thought. As long as Plouffe and Mauer are here, where will Sano play. I doubt that they will DH him. I would love to see him up here, but he needs to play defense and they won't DH Plouffe and play Sano at third. Mauer is getting what, 23 mil with a no trade contract. He is not going anywhere. The Twins have some very big roster decisions to make. And their history of loyalty to veteran players does not make it any easier.

This is a HUGE question mark going forward. Sano is as much of a linchpin as Mauer may potentially be. I believe Sano has made a pretty outstanding comeback this season. More so than Buxton. Remember, at least Buxton got part of last season in last year. And the arguement could be made that he has a more difficult defensive assignment as well, getting back in to a groove at 3B rather the OF. I believe Sano is very close to getting his shot. But there is less of a promotional need for him with Plouffe at 3B than Buxton in the OF. But if he continues on his current course, I believe he will be up in time to get at least 2 full months of time in. (That is my hope at least)

 

He will play 3B and have the occassional game at DH. Plouffe can play third, first and DH. Mauer can play first, DH, and sit on occasion as well. I'm not being cruel, but Plouffe is more productive, Sano has to play, so it's OK if Mauer just sits once in a while as well.

 

Now, Sano is going to make some really nice plays at 3B. And he's also going to make more than a few errors as well. I'd speculate 15-20 errors in his first full season as the Twins primary 3B. And I don't care! Unless the guy was a .250 hitter with zero power and was shifted from SS or 2B, I don't remember a single 3B I have ever seen who came to the Bigs as a Gold Glove caliber defensive 3B. It takes time. More at home, it did for Gaetti...it did for Koskie...it did for Plouffe...and it will for Sano.

 

No trades. Not now. In the off season....maybe. There may yet be room for everyone. But I would consider Plouffe expendable in the right deal to acquire...oh...maybe a top flight young catcher?

[DocBauer]

1) They have already dumped Stauffer2) They have kept Schafer in seemingly permanent limbo3) They have made the first decisively fast DL move since I don't know when (Hicks)4) They have called up and stuck with Rosario, despite not "mastering" AA or AAA5) They have shipped out Nolasco twice to the DL already this year6) They have been able to call up an actual MLBSP from AAA depth7) They have called up their very best prospect, despite not "mastering" AA or AAA, missing last season, still only 21, etc.8) They have signed yet another proven MLBSP, who takes the mound for the Twins for the first time, just 3 weeks from today

More and more and more.....this isn't your father's conservative old Twins approach.

 

Or...maybe it is, hardening back to the cheap Calvin G days when the Twins promoted so aggressively. Hmmm.....interesting thought isn't it?

[Mike Sixel]

There are no top flight young MLB catchers being traded for a good 3B, I would not think. Mauer should sit the most of Sano and Plouffe, and it should start soon, imo.

[DocBauer]

Arcia is very young. In all likelihood the "mental aspect of hitting" light will go on some day. When it does, I hope it is here. Or he will join another in an increasingly long list of players who people preface the story with "former Twin"! Given a choice between Arcia, Vargas, and Plouffe, eventually it would be Arcia. He has elite power, and in the past has hit for average. As for Plouffe, he is a very respectable third baseman. Is Sano going to come up and play as well as Plouffe does now? NO! And neither did Plouffe at that age. But as one poster mentioned, Sano is likely a generational player. Sano is actually not Plouffes problem, Mauer is. In a normal situation Plouffe would move to first. But the Mauer problem appears unsolvable. You want more out of the DH spot than he now seems capable of. And I don't think it's coming back. I am a big Mauer fan, but the concussion and catching aging seems to have taken its toll. So unless something unforeseen happens it leaves Plouffe as the odd man out.

I have always been a big Arcia fan and promoter. After the way he finished last season, I really thought the light was begining to come on, and we were about ready for a breakout season.

 

Unfortunately, someone seems to have installed a dimmer switch this season, and Arcia has...well...I don't know....what has Arcia done exactly? Forgotten how to play? Gotten overconfident? Quit listening to coaching? I don't know, but he sure doesn't seem like the same ballplayer.

 

I also want him succeeding in a Twins uniform. And sooner or later, he will be back up again for another shot. (And let's be honest, Schafer and Robinson are disposable temps) But as muck has as I want Arcia to succeed, Kepler, Harrisson and Walker are on the way. (Possible conversion of Plouffe to the OF). I believe Santana may yet find his true self as a LF who can play center and backup SS as well. What if Arcia could be part of a package to bring in that top young catcher this needs in the off season? Again, I don't want to lose him. But he might just become expendable.

[DocBauer]

The Twins need someone who can get lefties out on a regular basis. It's pretty much a necessity in a good pen. The Twins don't have that guy right now and that's a problem.

 

The pitcher doesn't need to be left-handed but that certainly helps. A right-hander who is good at getting lefties out is usually a good reliever, period... And that's not a guy you want to waste in a LOOGY or early inning role unless your entire bullpen is outstanding, which the Twins' bullpen is... not.

 

Actually, I just double-checked Thompson's LHB splits for 2015. They're much better than I expected (SSS warning!). Move him into the LOOGY role. It certainly can't be worse than Duensing. Thompson doesn't strike out as many guys as you'd like but neither does Duensing so whatever.

I would agree with this. Ideally, you would like to have two LHRP available, though possibly in different roles. Right now, I'm not sure the Twins have even one. That might not be fair to Thompson as he's ben solid most of the year, but he has struggled as of late. A LOOGY role may be perfect for him.

 

With Melotakis out, my hopes were for Darnell to build on what he did last season, and actually up a lot of his. Umbels with a move to the bullpen full time. His Rochester numbers aren't bad, but not what I had hoped for. I hesitate to hold open auditions mid season for roster spots on a competitive ball club...but...at this point I'd encourage the idea of Deunsing removed through whatever direction, make Thompson that LOOGY, and then start running guys through until we can find one LH from AAAA or AA that seems capable of actually pitching an inning or two out of the pen with positive results. If he could average more than 4K per 9, and keep RH batters to a BA .270 ish or below, he might just hold the job for years to come.