Molitor's decisions

[jokin]

 

 

 

From 2012 onward, as his teams were worse, Gardy was certainly less rigid in many ways.  The top of his lineups were generally fine given available personnel, and he dropped Hicks from the leadoff spot after 11 games in 2013, not unlike Molitor dropping Santana after 21 games this year.

 

 

 

One of these things is not like the other....  Hicks was batting .047/.174 OPS when he was demoted in the lineup... Santana was hitting .257/.564 OPS.

 

It didn't take a bold, intrepid skipper to move Hicks from the leadoff spot.  A bold, intrepid skipper would have insisted that his GM ship Hicks, not to the back of the order, but back to the minors, and after, less than, 11 games.  What they ended up doing to Hicks in 2013, because they couldn't admit how wrong they were about his major league readiness,   constituted cruel and unusual treatment.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

One of things is not like the other....  Hicks was batting .047/.174 OPS when he was demoted in the lineup... Santana was hitting .257/.564 OPS.

 

It didn't take a bold, intrepid skipper to move Hicks from the leadoff spot.  A bold, intrepid skipper would have insisted that his GM ship Hicks, not to the back of the order, but back to the minors, and after, less than, 11 games.  What they ended up doing to Hicks in 2013, because they couldn't admit how wrong they were about his major league readiness,   constituted cruel and unusual treatment.

I never said that Gardy was a bold, intrepid skipper.  I am saying he's made similar lineup moves the past few seasons as Molitor has this month, especially considering the available options for each.  I don't think either qualifies as a bold, intrepid skipper (yet), by this measure.

 

And I guess 21 games was the wrong time period to use for Santana -- he actually was first bounced to 9th after 16 games, with a .203/.203/.237 line and 19 K's vs 0 BB in 59 PAs.  (He briefly reappeared at leadoff for a pair of games later, one of which was a Dozier off-day.)  Not as epically bad as Hicks start in 2013, granted, but with Dozier available, I suspect almost any manager makes that switch, including Gardy.

 

EDIT TO ADD: Remember in April 2013, Dozier still sucked and had never batted leadoff before.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

As others have mentioned, there seems to be less tolerance for playing shorthanded while someone lingers on the "15 day-to-day not quite disabled list."

The last section of this Rosario article seems to suggest it is generally not the manager's call, and that the Twins haven't really changed their attitude about waiting to DL guys:

 

http://m.1500espn.com/pages/sportswire.php?sID=13742

 

I think Molitor might look better in this regard simply because the team has been much healthier, and somewhat better assembled (OF/rotation depth).  On the latter point, I am sure Gardy didn't help at times, but I think increasing options and depth has been a natural progression for this team over the past couple years, not necessarily any special influence of Molitor.  All of our current OF/SP depth except Hunter/Robinson was in place by the end of the 2014 season, and I see no reason to think that Hunter/Robinson would not have been signed if Gardy was still manager.

 

Give Gardy four outfielders and 6 starters, with a few more in AAA, and I expect he manages those resources similarly in April 2015.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

One of things is not like the other....  Hicks was batting .047/.174 OPS when he was demoted in the lineup... Santana was hitting .257/.564 OPS.

 

It didn't take a bold, intrepid skipper to move Hicks from the leadoff spot.  A bold, intrepid skipper would have insisted that his GM ship Hicks, not to the back of the order, but back to the minors, and after, less than, 11 games.  What they ended up doing to Hicks in 2013, because they couldn't admit how wrong they were about his major league readiness,   constituted cruel and unusual treatment.

I'd like to see where Molitor bats Buxton when Buxton is called up. Maybe Hicks should have batted 9th until he got traction--which he never did. Alex Rodriguez (to make an interesting comparison ) batted ninth for a log time when he was new to MLB. Partly because he was like 18 years old but also just to take the pressure off him and let him get acclimated, I bet. Also, I think shortstops were still considered glove guys who batted 9th, but A-Rod was always going to be more than just a gold glove, too. (Like Buxton.)

[TheLeviathan]

 

Give Gardy four outfielders and 6 starters, with a few more in AAA, and I expect he manages those resources similarly in April 2015.

A long history of Gardy decisions makes that really hard to swallow, I think that's just where many of us are at.

[USAFChief]

A long history of Gardy decisions makes that really hard to swallow, I think that's just where many of us are at.

yup. Playing with a 24 man team, or less, was a common problem.

 

So far at least, it seems less so. I think Mollie might have even learned if he's going to carry a rule 5 pick, he's going to have to use him.

 

Whatever the cause, I hope it is real, and lasting.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

A long history of Gardy decisions makes that really hard to swallow, I think that's just where many of us are at.

The April 2014 outfield was a mess, but they built a short-handed roster, and then had simultaneous extended injuries to both corner starters.  The 2014 rotation was also somewhat short-handed even before Pelfrey's injury.  Put Molitor in that situation and I think some of his decisions would frustrate you too.

 

He made plenty of mistakes, but nothing in Gardy's record really suggests he would not have deployed Schafer, Robinson, Hunter, Arcia (plus Nunez and Escobar), and now Rosario exactly as Molitor has so far in 2015.

[nicksaviking]

 

Give Gardy four outfielders and 6 starters, with a few more in AAA, and I expect he manages those resources similarly in April 2015.

 

I think this all hinges on the front office's historically loose definitions of the words "outfielders" and "starters".

[Brock Beauchamp]

It's simply amazing how carrying 12 pitchers and two catchers can give a team so much "depth".

 

And that's the difference between Molitor and Gardenhire. Paul seems to dislike wasting roster spots so he has the ability to platoon, shuffle the lineup based on opposing pitcher, and do all sorts of things a manager can do with two additional players. It was Gardenhire's own fault that the Twins didn't have any outfielders in April 2014. He's the one who pushed to keep guys on the roster so he could play them out of position and he's the guy who carried more pitchers and catchers than is absolutely necessary.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

It's simply amazing how carrying 12 pitchers and two catchers can give a team so much "depth".

 

And that's the difference between Molitor and Gardenhire. Paul seems to dislike wasting roster spots so he has the ability to platoon, shuffle the lineup based on opposing pitcher, and do all sorts of things a manager can do with two additional players. It was Gardenhire's own fault that the Twins didn't have any outfielders in April 2014. He's the one who pushed to keep guys on the roster so he could play them out of position and he's the guy who carried more pitchers and catchers than is absolutely necessary.

Gardy deserves some blame, but not all.  He almost certainly had an irrational love for Bartlett in April 2014, but TR assembled the Hicks/Mastroianni/Presley group that offseason (and Hicks/Mastroianni/Thomas the previous offseason) and presumably gave his OK to cutting Presley when we did.  Sam Fuld was fully available to TR to sign that offseason too (he didn't sign with Oakland until Feb. 2014).  Molitor seems similarly eager to use infielders in the outfield this year, even 4 healthy outfielders available.

 

And Gardy's SP staffs were much worse, and with less available depth, from 2012-2014 than what Molitor has now.  That's going to affect bullpen construction.

 

Finally, Gardy's "3 catcher preference" is way overblown, I think.  Looking back over rosters and lineups, it appears 3 catcher rosters were very rare to the Twins outside of 2011-2013 when Mauer effectively became a part-time catcher (and earlier instances were almost always around Mauer injury/recovery situations, or September roster expansions).

 

To summarize in a word: context.  Give Molitor the outfields, pitching staffs, and catching situations that TR assembled for Gardy and I doubt you would see a whole lot of difference in resource management.  At least, nothing in Molitor's limited sample of 2015 decisions suggests otherwise, so far.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Putting guys like Bartlett and Escobar in the outfield is not fair to them or their teammates. Escobar had that horrible misread in Cleveland about a year ago. Apparently Molitor and Ryan think that was his big mistake he can learn from to get better. Time will tell. Escobar might get better in left like Santana did in center, but they are both still infielders.

[jimmer]

From KLaw chat today:

 

Q: I know you're against hiring managers with no previous experience, but is the Counsell case any different for you? He's essentially able to learn on the job with a team that has no playoff aspirations. By the time Milwaukee is ready to compete again he will either have a good feeling for the position or the Brewers can move on after his three years are up.

 

KLaw: Why not just hire someone who's actually qualified and let *him* learn on the job? I don't know if Counsell will be good or bad even with experience, but the problem is that the Brewers don't know either. The guy has zero relevant experience. In what other industry is that considered a normal practice?

 

followup:

 

 

Q: Regarding managers with zero experience, what do general managers and owners see and think to consider hiring someone with no managing background at all? And will this be a continuing trend?

 

KLaw: If you've read Daniel Kahnemann's Thinking, Fast and Slow - and if you haven't, you should, so here's my review http://klaw.me/1eOEauc - he talks about this specific fallacy, weighing the interview too heavily and the experience too little. It's a long-running trend and I have no qualms in calling it a major failure of management. It's no better than hiring your friends.

[Mike Sixel]

I doubt it was the interview, I think it had to do with long standing relationships, another thing that drives hiring in every business*

 

*note, I am not opining on the quality of the hire, just one of the things that probably played a role.....

[JB_Iowa]

Just read this on Epsn and thought it fit well with this thread.

 

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/12839409/minnesota-twins-paul-molitor-enjoying-view-dugout

[Bark's Lounge]

Obviously execution is #1, but I am, at this point, very pleased with the job Molitor has done. Being a manager is a guessing game, but he has seemingly hit the marks on all fronts. At the end of the day, I believe him to be the man who could possibly lead this team to the promised land, I stead fastely plant my MN Twins Flag next to him and truly believe he can guide this team to be a world series contender. Molitor does not need to hit the mark - our prospects do.

[jimbo92107]

The title of this thread is Molitor's Decisions, but really his in-game tactical calls are less important than his ability to get every member of this team to become more mentally engaged in the sport they love. It's not just Schafer or Robinson busting his butt to catch a fly ball, it's guys taking the extra base, stealing when the opponent isn't alert, bunting to beat a shift, defensive shifts, clever pitching, etc.

 

It's like poker. You can just play the odds, but people that love the game get into little psychological nuances. Same thing in baseball. If you look carefully, you can see that most pitchers tip off their intentions either before or during their delivery. Plouffe got a double recently off a nervous relief pitcher. I could see that the guy could not throw a strike anywhere but his low, outside fastball. Plouffe could see that, too. In a crucial count, he guessed fastball low and outside. Pow, double down the right field line.

 

Players like Torii Hunter have been mentally engaged their whole careers, but for others, it's like being reminded why they loved the game in the first place. Molitor has got the whole team playing his brand of opportunistic, heady baseball, and that makes the Twins one of the most entertaining teams in baseball to watch. I don't know if they're going to have a great win-loss record this year, but right now I wouldn't bet against it. A team full of mentally engaged, opportunistic players is very hard to beat. A lot of that is coming from Paul Molitor.

[DaveW]

Twins lose in 10 innings, yet their best relief pitcher doesn't throw a single pitch. Same stupid bullpen usage is more of the same for this team, we may not lose 90 this year, but with more of this garbage decision making the twins likely won't sniff the playoffs yet again.

[spinowner]

Actually, with all due respect (you should try respect sometime, it can be effective) their best reliever pitched two innings. Boyer hasn't allowed a run in his last 13.1 innings.

[Danchat]

Going with Ryan Pressly in the 10th inning was a bit of an odd choice. I think Glen Perkins or Aaron Thompson would be a better option.

[Willihammer]

I agree. Tie game, extra innings, how much more leverage do you need? Get your best guy out there. Esp. with the day off.

[Willihammer]

Gotta love another extra inning (failed) sacrifice attempt too. With a speedster on base.

[nater79a]

Actually, the Twins lost this game early on when they went 0-7 with runners in scoring position.

[twinsnorth49]

I'm confident Molitor will learn from this and if presented with a similar situation make a better decision.

 

It's May, it's one game, let's not get carried away here.

[Willihammer]

I'm confident Molitor will learn from this and if presented with a similar situation make a better decision.

 

It's May, it's one game, let's not get carried away here.

He made similar choices earlier in the season. I recall a game where he had Vargas, Arcia, and Escobar on the bench, and his late game PH choice was... Escobar.

 

In the same game he sacrificed a baserunner to 2nd. The runner? Schafer. That's just sloppy managing IMO.

[USAFChief]

Actually, the Twins lost this game early on when they went 0-7 with runners in scoring position.

Bingo. And in several of those ABs they didn't even need a hit.

 

As for bullpen usage, I don't have a problem not using Perkins.

 

The problem is having so few decent choices.

[twinsnorth49]

He made similar choices earlier in the season. I recall a game where he had Vargas, Arcia, and Escobar on the bench, and his late game PH choice was... Escobar.

 

In the same game he sacrificed a baserunner to 2nd. The runner? Schafer. That's just sloppy managing IMO.

I realize he's not perfect and everything works in hindsight. I'll agree with you that a few decisions have had that similar old scent to them, but more concerned about the decisions he makes in late July and August and if they are the same ones.

[Willihammer]

Actually, the Twins lost this game early on when they went 0-7 with runners in scoring position.

This is so lame. This thread is called "Molitor's decisions." We are debating Molitor's choices here, not the batter's performance with RISP.

[Linus]

I assume everyone is aware of the Twins stolen base percentage? I would bunt (or swing away) in those situations but I wouldn't put the steal on.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I would have preferred to see Perkins out there but it's one game. If Molitor makes that same move in ten straight similar situations, then I'll start to get irritated about it.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I assume everyone is aware of the Twins stolen base percentage? I would bunt (or swing away) in those situations but I wouldn't put the steal on.

I'm a big advocate of "make the other team beat you".

 

They might actually beat you, yes... But they'll have to make a good throw and execute to do it. With Brian Dozier at the plate and Hicks on first, giving Aaron the green light is the right thing to do. If Dozier makes contact with that ball and gets it to the outfield, Hicks has a chance to score. If Dozier doesn't make contact and Aaron successfully steals, you have a guy in scoring position with two outs.

 

It's a smart play in extra innings with a guy on first base.