Molitor's decisions

[Otto von Ballpark]

All I did was attribute a win or two this month to things Molitor is doing - ranging from flexible lineups to in-game strategy to clubhouse management. I don't think we get those 1-2 extra wins under Gardy for those same reasons, but that's just my opinion.

Could just as well attribute it to our annual 4 game sweep of the White Sox being scheduled in May rather than June this year.

 

Gardy could do just fine over small samples too.

[TheLeviathan]

 

I said it couldn't be measured, not that it wouldn't show up.

 

If you can't measure it, you can't assign a value to the manager for that aspect of his performance.

 

You either aren't reading my posts or are trolling...

 

I have no idea what you're arguing, you aren't being clear.  You want to suggest managers make a difference in some way but also are arguing against my position that Molitor is making a difference.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Could just as well attribute it to our annual 4 game sweep of the White Sox being scheduled in May rather than June this year.

Gardy could do just fine over small samples too.

 

Absolutely, fully admitted that it's a small sample size.  My take on it could change very much this next month, but I was simply sharing an observation that has some credible evidence to support.  But it's hardly indisputable and time will tell.

[drivlikejehu]

 

I have no idea what you're arguing, you aren't being clear.  You want to suggest managers make a difference in some way but also are arguing against my position that Molitor is making a difference.

 

I don't know why you are having so much trouble understanding the simple concept that managers are relevant, but in a hard to quantify way. I think that's a fairly common viewpoint. 

 

I like Molitor. But to take a half step back, your position is that Molitor got the team to 12-12, whereas Gardy would not have. You have zero evidence to support this. Is Molitor worth a win per month? Two wins? What exactly is your position?

[TheLeviathan]

 

I don't know why you are having so much trouble understanding the simple concept that managers are relevant, but in a hard to quantify way. I think that's a fairly common viewpoint. 

 

I like Molitor. But to take a half step back, your position is that Molitor got the team to 12-12, whereas Gardy would not have. You have zero evidence to support this. Is Molitor worth a win per month? Two wins? What exactly is your position?

 

Heh.  My position is pretty simple, I think Molitor was worth a win or two more than Gardy would have been.  And it's based on things he's done that Gardy wouldn't - namely his lineup flexibility.  I don't disagree it's hard to quantify.  I don't suggest that it is a hard and fast rule or fact.  Just that my gut instinct from watching this team, looking at the individual performance, and comparing managerial actions thus far this year to the last decade of them tells me Molitor has gotten more out of this team so far than our previous manager.  I think the run differential being only -20 or so is impressive when you look at just how bad our offense has been.  (50 runs worse than last year) 

 

You are welcome to disagree, you may well be right and the larger sample as we go on will bear that out.  But I am not falsely attributing anything as you said, we just have different feelings about how wins and losses are attributed and with how much confidence.  

[Otto von Ballpark]

Run differential shifted today!

[Otto von Ballpark]

What Molitor lineup decision(s) netted that extra win or two above our expected record?

 

What Gardy lineup decisions in April 2014 failed to do that?

[drivlikejehu]

Just to be clear, I think Molitor is a better manager than Gardenhire.

 

But we do disagree, in that I don't think we can assign wins and losses to them in a worthwhile way.

[TheLeviathan]

 

What Molitor lineup decision(s) netted that extra win or two above our expected record?

What Gardy lineup decisions in April 2014 failed to do that?

 

Do you have access to a means by which I can view all possible worlds?  Because otherwise these are kind of silly questions.  

 

I think his willingness to adjust things based on player performance is benefitial.  Certainly moreso than "play catcher hit third" or "play second, bat second" sort of nonsense.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Just to be clear, I think Molitor is a better manager than Gardenhire.

 

But we do disagree, in that I don't think we can assign wins and losses to them in a worthwhile way.

 

I think you took my remarks too literally.  Especially since I said right off the bat that I "feel" like things he is doing differently are showing up in the W-L record.  It's very hard to assign wins and losses to anything in a concrete way, that was never what I said, that was an interpretation you ran with.

 

But that doesn't mean differences in managerial style can't have a real effect, it's just impossible to directly assign.  But I never tried to do that either.

[JB_Iowa]

 

What Molitor lineup decision(s) netted that extra win or two above our expected record?

What Gardy lineup decisions in April 2014 failed to do that?

 

For me (and I wasn't a Molitor supporter), it's the way he is mixing up his line-ups and trying to keep guys fresh and to get them on track.  Would Gardenhire have done that?  I have my doubts -- I think he just got stale.

 

It's impossible to quantify the impact.  From a fan's standpoint, I'm most glad that we are free from Gardy-isms.

[drivlikejehu]

 

I think you took my remarks too literally.  Especially since I said right off the bat that I "feel" like things he is doing differently are showing up in the W-L record.  It's very hard to assign wins and losses to anything in a concrete way, that was never what I said, that was an interpretation you ran with.

 

But that doesn't mean differences in managerial style can't have a real effect, it's just impossible to directly assign.  But I never tried to do that either.

 

I must have misunderstood this comment of yours from a few minutes ago:

 

"My position is pretty simple, I think Molitor was worth a win or two more than Gardy would have been."

 

To me that sounded like you were directly linking Molitor's performance to the Twins' W/L record. I don't see what other interpretation I could have had. Even a one win difference would be huge in 24 games... 2 would be massive.

[TheLeviathan]

 

I must have misunderstood this comment of yours from a few minutes ago:

 

"My position is pretty simple, I think Molitor was worth a win or two more than Gardy would have been."

 

To me that sounded like you were directly linking Molitor's performance to the Twins' W/L record. I don't see what other interpretation I could have had. Even a one win difference would be huge in 24 games... 2 would be massive.

 

I feel like he might have been worth that so far.  Whether that continues or is even true is likely what we'll have to watch for the rest of the season.  But if the reverse is true, that he wasn't worth 1 win, then doesn't that go back to what I said about him being definitionally "worthless"?

[drivlikejehu]

 

I feel like he might have been worth that so far.  Whether that continues or is even true is likely what we'll have to watch for the rest of the season.  But if the reverse is true, that he wasn't worth 1 win, then doesn't that go back to what I said about him being definitionally "worthless"?

 

Other managers already do the things you applaud Molitor for. 

 

Maybe a better way of expressing your views is that Gardy cost the Twins games that a competent manager would have won. I don't disagree, though again I would not try to put a number on it.

 

So, no, I don't think a failure to create wins out of thin air makes a manager "worthless," any more that it makes me worthless at playing the lottery that I can't predict what numbers will be picked.

[Thrylos]

I think that one of the biggest differences between GardynAndy vs PaulienNeilie (sic) is the use of the pitching staff.  Gardy used to burn the pen. Period. Many times he got a guy up to face a single hitter. And he got him out regardless the result. So, if in the (let's say) 7th inning there was a LRL hitter sequence, Gardy would burn 3 pitchers.  The other inane thing that Gardy (nAndy) would do was to take the starter out at the 8th even if he was cruising when he neared 100 pitches and letting the (crappy) pen take over.  Molitor is avoiding both mistakes.

 

Also, Molitor does not seem to have pets, does not throw players under the bus and seems to write that lineup based on merit.  Gardy, well... (we all know.)

 

And, I am on the record saying, that getting rid of GardyNAndy & Co, is worth at least 5 wins.

I think I might had been too conservative on that count...

[Otto von Ballpark]

Do you have access to a means by which I can view all possible worlds? Because otherwise these are kind of silly questions.

 

I think his willingness to adjust things based on player performance is benefitial. Certainly moreso than "play catcher hit third" or "play second, bat second" sort of nonsense.

Do not misunderstand me, I am not asking for an exact accounting. Just what moves of Molitor's informed your opinion that he has added 1-2 wins already.

 

I think Gardy is getting penalized because we have 13 seasons worth of bad moves to judge him -- he hasn't batted backup catchers third or lousy 2B second in a long time.

 

Meanwhile, Molitor benefits from a limited record that we can project whatever we want onto it.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Other managers already do the things you applaud Molitor for. 

 

Sure they do, my original comments came as a comparison of Molitor and Gardy.  So if you want to phrase the improvement as being a slight on Gardy rather than a praising of Molitor, I don't care how you shift that, the end result is the same: The April 2015 Twins are better off with Molitor than with Gardy.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Do not misunderstand me, I am not asking for an exact accounting. Just what moves of Molitor's informed your opinion that he has added 1-2 wins already.

I think Gardy is getting penalized because we have 13 seasons worth of bad moves to judge him -- he hasn't batted backup catchers third or lousy 2B second in a long time.

Meanwhile, Molitor benefits from a limited record that we can project whatever we want onto it.

 

If I say "small sample sizes acknowledged" a third time, will that help bury it once and for all?

 

Do I have to lay out the way in which Molitor has flexed his lineup already this year moreso than Gardy?  Gardy was EXTREMELY rigid.  Molitor has been anything but.  Basically everyone not named Mauer has been flexed around based on their recent performances or ideas to jump start them or ideas to jump start the lineup as a whole.  I'm confused why it's even a debate that this has been a stark difference.

[stringer bell]

I don't think Gardenhire was a bad manager.  He did seem to get a little stale, yes, but overall he did a good job.  The Twins' record has been more a function of the personnel on the team. 

 

I think Molitor has superior personnel to what Gardenhire had since 2010 and I expect better performance.  I also think Molitor has a far more in-tune pitching coach.  That change might net the five victories that Thrylos alluded to. 

 

My biggest concern so far with "Molly" his use of pitchers.  It was wrong to use Graham so little in April and the Fien injury might have been avoided if Molitor was not trying to use the tender-armed reliever for multiple innings in his second consecutive day on the mound. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

If I say "small sample sizes acknowledged" a third time, will that help bury it once and for all?

 

Do I have to lay out the way in which Molitor has flexed his lineup already this year moreso than Gardy? Gardy was EXTREMELY rigid. Molitor has been anything but. Basically everyone not named Mauer has been flexed around based on their recent performances or ideas to jump start them or ideas to jump start the lineup as a whole. I'm confused why it's even a debate that this has been a stark difference.

I think Gardy's long record is exagerrating this aspect of his style. Last April he had Mauer 2nd, moved Plouffe up to 3rd when he was hitting well, etc. At times Gardy even moved Dozier into the middle of the order, no? I think he could have dropped a struggling Santana just like Molitor did. And Hunter was already a #2 in Detroit, so I am not seeing that move as anything special that Molitor did but Gardy would not.

[Boom Boom]

I've only noticed two decisions Molitor made that I don't believe Gardy would have. One was bringing Perkins out in the eighth inning.

 

The other was having Arcia play some right field.

 

Overall it's not all that different, at least as far as game decisions go. How much of a difference it makes in the clubhouse I have no idea.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I've only noticed two decisions Molitor made that I don't believe Gardy would have. One was bringing Perkins out in the eighth inning.

The other was having Arcia play some right field.

Gardy had Arcia play RF all of 2014.    Actually, he also had Arcia split 2013 between LF and RF, so I don't think Gardy would have necessarily been inflexible on that front.

 

Perkins in the 8th is a welcome change from Gardy, though, agreed.

[h2oface]

 

Santana in center and Escobar at short makes the team better.  

 

Personally, I cringe every time I see Escobar and his buck whatever average in the lineup right now, and especially in left field. That statement I could agree with last year, but it is now May of this year, and there may be a problem, and I can't agree it is true now. He had a nice spring training, though. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

Folks should remember that Gardy inherited a winning team, with virtually its entire lineup already set.  Then he proceeded to have 9 seasons of almost uninterrupted contention, plus a 10th season of expected contention in 2011.  During those 10 years, Gardy probably never had a team as in flux as the April 2015 Twins, so it makes sense that his approach during those years would seem more rigid.  Molitor may not have been a materially different Twins manager from 2002-2011.

 

From 2012 onward, as his teams were worse, Gardy was certainly less rigid in many ways.  The top of his lineups were generally fine given available personnel, and he dropped Hicks from the leadoff spot after 11 games in 2013, not unlike Molitor dropping Santana after 21 games this year.  Dozier moved around the 1-2-3 spots, Plouffe hit #3 when he hit well, Mauer switched between 2-3, Suzuki and Santana claimed better spots when they were hot, etc.  (And a true backup catcher hasn't batted 3rd for the Twins outside of 2006-2008, when Redmond did it while batting .307.)  Closer usage was one area where Gardy remained rigid, but that's probably 2 extra appearances per month for the closer, not 2 extra team wins per month.

 

I don't know if there's a measure for it, but I would have to guess that Gardy was no worse than average in rigidity among MLB managers.  Molitor is probably a shade less rigid, but well within the same range in terms of fan-visible evidence (lineups, rosters, roles).  Molitor's benefit to this team will primarily be in approach/preparation outside of the game itself, and hopefully in fresh attitude and culture late this season and going forward.

[Boom Boom]

Gardy had Arcia play RF all of 2014. Actually, he also had Arcia split 2013 between LF and RF, so I don't think Gardy would have necessarily been inflexible on that front.

 

Perkins in the 8th is a welcome change from Gardy, though, agreed.

After witnessing 13 years of Gardy's reign of terror, my oservation is that once a guy was anointed as the starter at a position they wouldn't move barring an emergency.

 

I'm remembering Delmon Young entrenched in left field despite grading out better in right, and even when Cuddyer was primarily playing first base due to Morneau's injuries.

 

I guess we'll never know, but it always seemed to me like Gardy liked having a guy play one position and only one position.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Gardy was prone to that (and I often didn't like his OF alignment), but Gardy nor Molitor really moved Arcia to LF.  Hunter moved him.  Arcia didn't play LF in 2014 not because he was entrenched in RF, but because he was never our best option for LF.  I have no doubt that given the same 2015 circumstances, Arcia would have had sporadic returns to RF to spell Hunter under Gardy.  (Now, if Molitor had gotten Hunter to play LF, that would be notable!)

 

Has Robinson ever played CF when Schafer has been in the game this year?  That "anointed starter" preference seems like a bigger deal than your Arcia example, and it feels consistent between Molitor and Gardy (and at least Gomez was more deserving of that treatment than Schafer).

[Halsey Hall]

 

What Molitor lineup decision(s) netted that extra win or two above our expected record?

What Gardy lineup decisions in April 2014 failed to do that?

It's more than lineup decisions.  It's situational awareness that Molitor brings from experience and has made the team aware of.  Vargas tagging on a fly ball and getting to 3rd, then scoring the only run of the game is one instance.  That would not have happened with Gardy. 

[h2oface]

 

PaulienNeilie (sic)

I sure hope this doesn't become a catch phrase, and this is the last time I see it. The "-ie" thing is sooooooooo in the past, hopefully.

[stringer bell]

 

Gardy was prone to that (and I often didn't like his OF alignment), but Gardy nor Molitor really moved Arcia to LF.  Hunter moved him.  Arcia didn't play LF in 2014 not because he was entrenched in RF, but because he was never our best option for LF.  I have no doubt that given the same 2015 circumstances, Arcia would have had sporadic returns to RF to spell Hunter under Gardy.  (Now, if Molitor had gotten Hunter to play LF, that would be notable!)

 

Has Robinson ever played CF when Schafer has been in the game this year?  That "anointed starter" preference seems like a bigger deal than your Arcia example, and it feels consistent between Molitor and Gardy (and at least Gomez was more deserving of that treatment than Schafer).

Robinson stayed in center when Schafer took Arcia's place yesterday.  The first game after Schafer's knee injury, he was slated to start in left with Robinson in center (Schafer later scratched). 

[USAFChief]

It's early, but a couple things I like:

 

As others have mentioned, there seems to be less tolerance for playing shorthanded while someone lingers on the "15 day-to-day not quite disabled list."

 

Gardy would send me into a rant at least once a month with his "it's his game to win" decisions on when to remove his starter. He'd wait until a starter who was obviously tiring and or getting lucky had coughed up a lead, or turned a close game into a blowout, and THEN remove the guy. I can't help but feel Pelfrey's start this past weekend was one where he'd have blown an entire 7 run lead because "Pelfsey" hadn't gotten 5 yet, and wouldn't qualify for the win. Monitor had no problem getting him out before disaster struck.

 

I like that, and hope it continues.