What we know, TR doesn't

[twinscowboysbulls]

I wish I had more time to write this thoroughly, but I don't.

 

1. Schaefer isn't a starting CF or OF even.

- His defense is awful and his stick might be worse.

 

2. Nolasco, Milone and Pelfrey aren't good.

 

3. The bullpen sores are painful.

-Stauffer is bad. Graham luckily got out of a jam. Can't wait to see Boyer struggle like crazy, along with Duensing and Thompson.

 

4. Pinto should be on this roster. I realize he isn't because his injury, but good chance he wasn't either, because of what we know, TR doesn't.

 

5. We are in for a long season until the rotation and BP gets an overhaul. Meyer and May should be up here pronto with Berrios to follow. 

 

TRY TO WIN, PLEASE.

 

Our offense will come around.  (positives)

[gunnarthor]

I like Schafer as a 4th OFer - he grades well in the corners - and with HIcks floundering, he is just a place holder until Buxton arrives.  He was a former top prospect, it's ok to give him a shot.  But, my God, has he looked bad in CF.

 

I suspect Ryan knows that.

 

Bullpens change dramatically year to year that it's not worth worrying about.  Good luck to Molitor though.

 

I think he'd be up if not for the injuries.  Probably more of a Molitor choice though.

 

I think May will be up within the month, once he is stretched out.  Eventually the pen will have Burdi and Reed and maybe Meyer.

[DuluthFan]

1. It's hard to convice a quality FA center fielder to sign when they will get pushed aside in a year or two when Buxton is promoted. Schafer has a better career average than Hicks and if last year is his potential upside, it's seems to be higher than Hicks.

 

2. Not everyone has had a turn through the rotation yet. They are placeholders for when the prospects can pitch consistantly well. They are setting the bar that the prospects have to meet this year (not their future potential).

 

3. Let's wait until they hit the field before judging, eh? Small sample size and all.

 

4. How many players have the Twins had recently that have played with concussions? Two? Mauer & Morneau? How did coming back early work out for them? I'll take a health Hermann over a concussed Pinto.

 

5. The bandwagon hasn't had time to leave the driveway. Not enjoying the ride so far? Make room for the those who want to enjoy the ride. We'll pick you up midseason.

[twinscowboysbulls]

 

1. It's hard to convice a quality FA center fielder to sign when they will get pushed aside in a year or two when Buxton is promoted. Schafer has a better career average than Hicks and if last year is his potential upside, it's seems to be higher than Hicks.

 

2. Not everyone has had a turn through the rotation yet. They are placeholders for when the prospects can pitch consistantly well. They are setting the bar that the prospects have to meet this year (not their future potential).

 

3. Let's wait until they hit the field before judging, eh? Small sample size and all.

 

4. How many players have the Twins had recently that have played with concussions? Two? Mauer & Morneau? How did coming back early work out for them? I'll take a health Hermann over a concussed Pinto.

 

5. The bandwagon hasn't had time to leave the driveway. Not enjoying the ride so far? Make room for the those who want to enjoy the ride. We'll pick you up midseason.

 

3. How's that bullpen doing?

 

4. I said without the injury, read it again. I'm talking about a 100% healthy, no concussion, Pinto. They did it last year, remember?

 

5. There is no bandwagon to be on or off for me. I'm a diehard Twins fan who realizes their faults and will call them on every single one.

[twinscowboysbulls]

Oh and also, I said STARTING OF, not 4th OF...

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

2. Not everyone has had a turn through the rotation yet. They are placeholders for when the prospects can pitch consistantly well. They are setting the bar that the prospects have to meet this year (not their future potential).

Who in the rotation do you consider to be placeholders?

[jimmer]

 

Who in the rotation do you consider to be placeholders?

I don't know, maybe Pelfrey and Milone, but the bar they are setting has been low :-)

[twinscowboysbulls]

 

1. It's hard to convice a quality FA center fielder to sign when they will get pushed aside in a year or two when Buxton is promoted. Schafer has a better career average than Hicks and if last year is his potential upside, it's seems to be higher than Hicks.

 

2. Not everyone has had a turn through the rotation yet. They are placeholders for when the prospects can pitch consistantly well. They are setting the bar that the prospects have to meet this year (not their future potential).

 

3. Let's wait until they hit the field before judging, eh? Small sample size and all.

 

4. How many players have the Twins had recently that have played with concussions? Two? Mauer & Morneau? How did coming back early work out for them? I'll take a health Hermann over a concussed Pinto.

 

5. The bandwagon hasn't had time to leave the driveway. Not enjoying the ride so far? Make room for the those who want to enjoy the ride. We'll pick you up midseason.

 

Who in the rotation do you consider to be placeholders?

 

Exactly. Gibson, Santana, Hughes and Nolasco are not placeholders. They are signed long-term (not gibson, but you know what I mean.)

 

And until they pitch well enough? Didn't May finish out in the MLB strong enough to earn a shot out of the gate?

 

[nicksaviking]

I suspect Ryan knows all of those things, perhaps with the exception of number 4.  He might not actually like Pinto, his offense is likable, but others seem to put his defensive issues above that in importance.

 

I suspsect Ryan's biggest issue is walking the straight path toward a rebuild.  He seems conservative by nature and is often pulled in that direction, like brining in safe low cost AAAA-type players in an effort to squeeze a few more wins out of the roster.  However once in awhile, he gets pulled to the opposite wildly aggressive direction giving large 4-year deals to older pitchers like Nolasco and Santana. 

 

Neither approach seems appropriate at this stage for the Twins, I wish he'd just stay on the path of the rebuild, plugging in young internal options that look to be part of the future and cycling through them until he finds the right matches.  You may lose more, and you may get criticized for having a low payroll, but to me it seems to be the best way out of this jam and the way to build sustained success.  That's what they did in the past when they won.

[TheLeviathan]

The CF situation still makes my brain hurt.  For the third...straight...year!

[bird]

I'm one of the rainbows and sunshine guys on TD. A veritable Positive Nellie. And yet, I agree with every one of your five points. So, I have some questions, but I only want answers from people who believe they know what TR doesn't know. Let's confuse arrogance and knowledge. 

 

1. Schaefer isn't a starting OF. Doubt you'll find 2% of the people on TD disputing that. According to the author, Ryan doesn't know this. So, all you geniuses, what would you have done? Attract and sign a one-year FA placeholder for Buxton this past winter? Play Hicks?

 

2. Well, duh, of course Nolasco, Milone, and Pelfrey are not good. So, would you have stuck a Luger to Scherzer's temple and forced him to sign on the line which is dotted? Think back, and promise me you didnt criticize TR for passing on Shaun Marcum.  Do you miss Fuld? Are you so darned prescient that you know with absolute certainty that May and Meyer would have made these first two starts and fared well? Did you predict Santana's situation? And if/when May and Meyer become rotation fixtures, will you be front and center praising TR for making those trades?

 

3. The bullpen appears to be shaky at best. So, of all the options available to Allen and Molitor, who would you have brought north? Would you have signed a pricey FA or traded for a frontline reliever this winter? Who then, and what would you have had to give up? If the bullpen ends up surprising you on the upside, maybe when Burdi, Reed, and others are MLB-ready, will you still hold this vast knowledge edge on TR?

 

4. Pinto? Sorry, what's your point? That TR's an idiot?

 

5. Well, on this point, we all agree. Including the unknowledegable TR.

[Willihammer]

with HIcks floundering, he is just a place holder until Buxton arrives.  He was a former top prospect

Do you not see the irony here. Are the Twins seriously going to reserve a starting spot for Buxton given what they should know about top OF prospects by now?

[TheLeviathan]

 

Do you not see the irony here. Are the Twins seriously going to reserve a starting spot for Buxton given what they should know about top OF prospects by now?

 

It seems to be commonly accepted by some here that places should be held for top prospects up to three years in advance of their readiness.

 

The notion that the best we could do in three years for that position was a waiver claim on Sam Fuld seems highly unlikely.  I don't know what the trade or contract prices would've been to address the situation better, but I know this is about as bad as it could have possibly been managed.

[gunnarthor]

 

Do you not see the irony here. Are the Twins seriously going to reserve a starting spot for Buxton given what they should know about top OF prospects by now?

Sure.  Teams tend not to try and block top prospects.  I suppose they could have tried to sign Rasmus or some other place holder but at a certain point, it doesn't matter who is holding it down until he gets here.    

[Rosterman]

Ae Schafer and Robinson better fielders to have between Arcia and Hunter than, say, Santana, who SHOULD bring more offense to the position (unless Schafer surprises and hits again like he did last year).

 

Can Escobar hit if he plays everywhere but where he should play, and what do the Twins lose by putting him in other positions just so he can get playing time.

 

There is really, after Escobar, no one on the bench I would call a pinch-hitter, at least one to hit so someone else can go in and take their place on the field. If the lineup stays healthy, maybe we don't need that worry (or a third catcher).

 

We have the best starting staff you can find that will give up at least three runs a game. If they face a pitcher that only gives up two runs, we are in trouble. The only savings grace is that we do have three potential starters that can push towards 200 innings. If any falter, especially the guys mentioned, we have two waiting in the wings in the minors, and two more who will be banging on the door in 2016.

 

Not that Suzuki is the best guy behind the plate with the glove, but Pinto could be even worse. As long as Kurt hits, the Twins can be thankful. If Pinto really works on his catching skills at Rochester, then we have a future backstop, otherwise we pray for the guys at High A and below to develop faster than the ones we already jettisoned.

 

If anyone falters in the bullpen, there are 5 guys on the 40-man waiting for a chance. It is THESE guys who have everything to lose. You got a job in the majors, keep it. If you shine, you'll have a job somewhere next year, too. And the Twins lower level prospects have to also play like they know the jobs are for taking.

 

This is going to be a trying month. If the Twins aren't above .500 come May 1st, it will be a long season.

 

 

[bird]

 

Do you not see the irony here. Are the Twins seriously going to reserve a starting spot for Buxton given what they should know about top OF prospects by now?

 

Absolutely, if I'm GM of this team in 2015, I'm reserving CF for Buxton for as long as one year, ESPECIALLY given what I know about top OF prospects that have have earned the kinds of accolades Buxton has gotten. Damn right I'll take my chances that one of Hicks, Rosario, Schaefer, or Robinson can hold down the fort in a year where .500 is your wildest hope.

[TheLeviathan]

 

but at a certain point, it doesn't matter who is holding it down until he gets here.    

 

Jordan Schafer is the point at which we throw up our hands and see we can't do better until then?

[Mike Sixel]

It actually isn't my job to know the answers to bw's questions.....

 

i think Ryan knows all this stuff. I do think he was wrong to sign two mediocre pitchers, I think signing Pelfrey to a 2 year deal is mind boggling, I think having no CF option for three straight years is a strange way to approach one of the more important defensive positions in the entire game.

 

The one where I think legit other options are obvious is the bullpen. Plenty of other teams rush young RP up to the majors, we barely saw any last year. I hope to see about 4 new, young faces, this year.

[DaveW]

I wish I had more time to write this thoroughly, but I don't.

 

1. Schaefer isn't a starting CF or OF even.

To be fair, I don't think TR ever thought this, Schaefer was brought in to be a 4th OF. Hicks SHOULD have been able to win the gig out of ST but of course he does nothing but disappoint. Also Buxton likely will be up in a couple months anyways, so committing to anything more then a very short term stop gap wouldn't have made much sense.

 

 

2. Nolasco, Milone and Pelfrey aren't good.

 

Disagree, all three have had decent track records of success before coming to the Twins, Pelfrey the least, but still looked like a back end guy at the time (with a good fastball). Milone, they got for next to nothing, so I don't see why you are hating on this one, and in his time in Oakland Milone looked like a decent SP. Nolasco, though nothing too sexy before the signing, at least looked like a guy who could give you 200 IP and pitch like a number 3.

 

3. The bullpen sores are painful.

I'm not a fan at all with going with mediocre veterans vs higher upside youngsters.

 

4. Pinto should be on this roster. I realize he isn't because his injury, but good chance he wasn't either, because of what we know, TR doesn't.

 

Agreed

 

5. We are in for a long season until the rotation and BP gets an overhaul. Meyer and May should be up here pronto with Berrios to follow.

 

Probably a long season regardless. While I am excited for Meyer+May, we have to temper our expectations with them as there will likely be some growing pains.

[Willihammer]

Sure.  Teams tend not to try and block top prospects.  I suppose they could have tried to sign Rasmus or some other place holder but at a certain point, it doesn't matter who is holding it down until he gets here.

But he's not ready, right? How can you block someone who has 3 PAs above A+? He's 3 years out probably. Hicks was a little closer but was still too far off to hand him the job.

 

Its funny this team has no problem blocking AAA pitchers with multiple years of dominance but promising A+ position players? Clear the way!

[Hrbowski]

 

Including the unknowledegable TR.

I have got to say that TR is more knowledgeable about baseball than anyone on this thread, he is darn smart.

[DaveW]

 

But he's not ready, right? How can you block someone who has 3 PAs above A+? He's 3 years out probably. Hicks was a little closer but was still too far off to hand him the job.

Its funny this team has no problem blocking AAA pitchers with multiple years of dominance but promising A+ position players? Clear the way!

Buxton is 3 years out? lol no, 3 months maybe.

[Mike Sixel]

I still think Buxton is 54 weeks out....why blow his service time in August/Sept of a lost year?

[jimmer]

I'll be to-the-floor shocked if Buxton is up before September at the earliest.  

[SarasotaBill]

Let's not over react since it's only been two games but ....

 

1. Nolasco is same old same old - innings eater at best

2. Milone & Pelfrey are no better than Nolasco

3. Bullpen is awful

 

2015 is declared over for the Twins' playoff chances

 

Hope the 2016 draft has better top prospects than 2015

 

Hope Buxton, Sano, Burdi, Reed, Z. Jones, May, Meyer, Rosario have good first halves in the minors so that they get called up after the All Star break. 

[DaveW]

 

I have got to say that TR is more knowledgeable about baseball than anyone on this thread, he is darn smart.

Agreed 100% You don't just end up the GM (who has had some solid success btw) of a major league baseball team due to luck or accident.

[DaveW]

 

 

2. Milone & Pelfrey are no better than Nolasco

Whoa Whoa Whoa, let's not say things we can't take back.

[USAFChief]

Sure. Teams tend not to try and block top prospects. I suppose they could have tried to sign Rasmus or some other place holder but at a certain point, it doesn't matter who is holding it down until he gets here.

 

I think good GMs try and "block" prospects all the time. Particularly when the prospect being "blocked" hasn't gotten out of A ball. My guess is good GMs don't worry about "blocking" prospects because they know the most likely outcome is that nobody is being "blocked" at all. Most prospects never force their way into the big leagues, including shiny ones like Byron Buxton. And if they do, that's a marvelous situation to be in...having two players is WAY better than having zero.

 

If TR truly is purposely punting CF solely on the HOPE that some day out there in the future Byron Buxton MIGHT be a competent MLB CFer, we need a new GM.

[jokin]

 

 

 

2. Well, duh, of course Nolasco, Milone, and Pelfrey are not good. So, would you have stuck a Luger to Scherzer's temple and forced him to sign on the line which is dotted? Think back, and promise me you didnt criticize TR for passing on Shaun Marcum. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Completely wrong example. Apples and Oranges.  Shaun Marcum was exactly the type of gambling on Free Agent signings that a rebuilding team should do.  Sign them on one-year deals for cheap, with the hope of flipping them for prospects if they pan out, or possibly getting a compensatory draft pick after a QO is declined.. And then you don't leave yourself saddled with multiple anchors of contract blocking mediocrity, in the cases of Correia, Pelfrey, Nolasco, et al.

[Kwak]

 

Do you not see the irony here. Are the Twins seriously going to reserve a starting spot for Buxton given what they should know about top OF prospects by now?

Yes! Consider that if Buxton isn't a likely all-star this team (and Ryan's employment) will be in the toilet. In theory, it sounds great to have multiple players at a single position--but not if you have to purchase one on the open market. 

Draft another top CF prospect? There may not be one. Add in the need for pitching. I hope you don't think that Shafer was responsible for 10 runs?--he wasn't. 

I haven't added any discussion about Sano. But the Twins need him  to also become a star--so there will be a place reserved  for Sano (though I am not certain what that position will be).  Bottom line, if both of these guys don't meet expectations--the rest of this decade will have short Springs and long Winters. Positions will be reserved for both Buxton and Sano--because there isn't any alternative!