Article: Sizing Up The Competition: Kansas City Royals

[Nick Nelson]

I watched it all unfold, but I still have a hard time comprehending it. It feels weird -- almost oxymoronic -- to utter the phrase "American League Champion Kansas City Royals." This is a franchise that had been mired in a losing culture for nearly my entire life. Throughout most of the 2014 season, the Royals were very ordinary, lacking star power.

 

Yet, there they were in October, rattling off victories and completing a pair of impressive sweeps on their way to the World Series. Now, the Royals enter the 2015 campaign as reigning league champs, seeking to prove that last year's success was no fluke. Can they do it?2014 Record: 89-73

Runs Scored/Allowed: 651 / 624

 

Key Additions: Edinson Volquez (SP), Kris Medlen (SP), Alex Rios (OF), Kendrys Morales (DH)

Key Departures: James Shields (SP), Nori Aoki (OF), Billy Butler (DH)

 

Why They'll Be Better

 

The Royals have a fairly young roster, with a number of players still potentially on the rise. While it's hard to view any of their offseason personnel swaps as major talent upgrades, they have plenty of returning pieces that could take significant steps forward. Specifically, I'm thinking of Salvador Perez (24), who has the ability to be one of the top catchers in the game, and 23-year-old fireballer Yordano Ventura, who might be the de facto No. 1 with Shields gone.

 

The Royals have also kept their tremendous bullpen mostly intact, and if that group can pick up where it left off, they'll help the club win a lot of games. Last year Kansas City went 65-4 when leading after six innings.

 

Why They'll Be Worse

 

Frankly, there are a lot of reasons to believe the Royals are headed for a drop-off, and perhaps a substantial one.

 

The biggest thing is that they played way over their heads in 2014. Based on runs scored and allowed, they profiled more like a .500 team (their Pythagerean W/L record was 84-78). Their offense had no real firepower; only two regulars (Alex Gordon and Lorenzo Cain) finished with an OPS+ above 100, and the team ranked last in the majors in home runs.

 

It's hard to imagine the Royals repeating -- much less building upon -- their success without becoming more of a run-scoring threat. Their offseason moves, which included replacing Billy Butler and Nori Aoki with Kendrys Morales and Alex Rios, were more lateral than forward. If someone like Eric Hosmer or Mike Moustakas finally had a breakout year, that could be a game-changer, but how long have we been waiting for that to happen?

 

Removing Shields from the front of the rotation severely downgrades that unit, and the starters that GM Dayton Moore added in the departed ace's stead -- Volquez and Medlen -- are question marks at best. This looks to me like a fairly average starting corps that will struggle to consistently hand leads over to that powerful bullpen, especially if the lineup can't increase its output.

 

What To Expect

 

The Royals are perhaps the biggest regression candidate among all MLB clubs. That's not meant to take anything away from their charmed run last autumn -- it was nothing short of magical -- but those types of streaks are hard to repeat and I just don't see the infrastructure in place to sustain as a contender. Honestly, it wouldn't surprise me a bit to see Kansas City drop back to fourth or fifth place this year.

 

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[big dog]

I'd like the "under", please.

[Shane Wahl]

Great article, Nick. I think Hosmer is going to be very, very good this year. That said, I would not be surprised if they barely got to 80 wins this year. Too many things can happen.

[jimmer]

I picked KC to win the division this year and the I picked them to win the wild card the year before.

 

It wouldn't surprise me at all if they made the playoffs this year, but I think 3rd in our division, with a very small difference between them and the winner of the ALC, is the most likely to happen for them this year.

 

In regards to their pitching woes, they have Finnegan, Manae, Zimmer and Almonte, all of whom SHOULD spend time in AA or AAA this year.  Got to figure one or more of these guys will see significant time in the majors if struggles happen in the ML rotation.

 

Thing is, their DEFENSE really helps that pitching staff.  That's key for them as much of a key as the bullpen taking care of business after it's turned over to them.

Edited January 30, 2015 by jimmer

[troyhobbs]

I wouldn't be shocked to see KC fall to 4th but still think they're plenty good enough to compete for the division title.  The other 4 teams in the division beating up on each other could be MN's saving grace but I still don't see anyone finishing below the Twins. 

[nater79a]

Any team desperate enough to bring in Kendrys Morales to try and inject life into a moribund offense is in serious, serious trouble.

 

80-82 record, 4th place in the AL Central.

[Halsey Hall]

If the Twins have any chance of escaping the cellar the Royals are the team they have to top.  And with that bullpen in KC I have my doubts. 

[jimmer]

Any team desperate enough to bring in Kendrys Morales to try and inject life into a moribund offense is in serious, serious trouble.

 

80-82 record, 4th place in the AL Central.

He's only 32.  He could easily rebound after having the one bad season.  Too many players get written off, and for that matter anointed, too quickly.  It won't likely be a great signing, but I doubt he'll be as bad as he was last year. He had a .244 BABIP last year after averaging a BABIP of around .315 the previous four.

Edited January 30, 2015 by jimmer

[jimmer]

If the Twins have any chance of escaping the cellar the Royals are the team they have to top.  And with that bullpen in KC I have my doubts. 

Seems the prevailing idea around here is that the White Sox are going to be somewhat contenders this year and go ahead of the Royals?  I don't see it.  IMO, Twins and W Sox should battle for last place again this year.

[JB_Iowa]

Seems the prevailing idea around here is that the White Sox are going to be somewhat contenders this year and go ahead of the Royals?  I don't see it.  IMO, Twins and W Sox should battle for last place again this year.

 

 

I'm not a big Jon Heyman fan but he seems to think that the Sox did almost everything right.  We'll know in September whether it paid off.

 

 Winners

1. White Sox. Rarely has a team so successfully and systematically answered so many of its major questions. They needed a righty starter. Check. They needed a closer. Check. They needed a No. 2 hitter, a cleanup hitter and lefty set-up man. Check, check and check. With Jeff Samardzija, David Robertson, Melky Cabrera, Adam LaRoche and Zach Duke they scored a grand slam plus. They should compete in the improving, difficult AL Central, thanks to a reasonable outlay of slightly less than what the Cubs spent on Jon Lester. Only tiny quibble: $15 million and three years seem like a lot for Duke.

 

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/writer/jon-heyman/25003344/mlb-winter-winners-and-losers-all-is-well-in-chicago

[jimmer]

I usually feel better about my point of view when Heyman and I disagree.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Seems the prevailing idea around here is that the White Sox are going to be somewhat contenders this year and go ahead of the Royals?  I don't see it.  IMO, Twins and W Sox should battle for last place again this year.

The Twins are favored for last place and for good reason.

 

If I was putting money on the Twins passing anybody, it'd be the Indians and/or White Sox, not the Royals.

 

I'm not much of a prediction person but I see the ALC shaping up like this:

DET

KCR

CHW

CLE

MIN (better but still last... maybe 75-78 wins)

 

I hope it finishes more like:

 

DET (they're old and can't sustain this forever so one more good year then collapse)

KCR (gonna be a threat for awhile)

MIN (progress!)

CLE (just not in love with this team)

CHW (not sure what to think of the Whities right now)

 

I think this division is going to be *really* tight. No 90 win teams, no 90 loss teams. There's a good chance 88-89 wins takes this division.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I should add that if any team is going to completely implode in 2015, I think it'll be the Tigers. The Royals might slip but I think they'll still be good/decent.

 

On the other hand, Detroit is primed for a couple of players to fall off a cliff.

[jimmer]

I like the Cleveland team.  Few holes and quality starting pitching.  Love the manager too. I see a three-way battle between the Tigers, Indians and Royals.

[Willihammer]

I expect the Royals to take a big step back too. Gordon and Cain look like regression candidates. Gordon in the defensive runs saved dept. and Cain in the BABIP area. No power from the infielders, or anywhere really. The possible exception maybe is Moustakas. The way he finished last year, you wonder something finally clicked. 

 

And the loss of Shields is going to hurt. Duffy and Zimmer both have shoulder issues and there is not much upside left except Ventura. I suspect he needs to get familiar with the top of the zone to reach his potential.

Edited January 30, 2015 by Willihammer

[Eris]

Six of the teams that made the playoffs last year (Royals, A's, Orioles, Pirates, Dodgers and Cardinals) were ranked in the top 10 on FanGraphs Defensive Runs Saved (DRS).  Kansas City had 3 outfielders (Gordon, Cain and Dyson) individually ranked in the top 10 is DRS.  From Teams stats on DRS, Royals (40), Tigers (-65) and the Twins (-73).  A different way of looking at this is that all of Miguel Cabrera's offense (109 RBI) was essentially neutralized by the Royals defense.  I don't see any team in the division matching K.C.'s defense and they should be one of the contenders just because of that.  I enjoyed watching KC last year and wish the Twins, especially in the outfield, were modeled after the Royals outfield.  They also remind me alot like the 80's Cardinals outfield of Coleman and McGee.

[jimmer]

They also remind me alot like the 80's Cardinals outfield of Coleman and McGee.

Don't forget Van Slyke.  Great defender too.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

With their bullpen, fielding and speed, I can't see KC slipping much below .500, but if they do, they will have that little extra motivation for 2016. I'm guessing KC has a lot of goodwill and excitement banked from last year to get their fans through a down season or two. They're still young.

[bird]

I like the Cleveland team.  Few holes and quality starting pitching.  Love the manager too. I see a three-way battle between the Tigers, Indians and Royals.

That's kinda how I see it too. KC could surprise if any of their stud pitchers comes through and Kendry, Moose, and Hosmer all have really solid years. If the wrong three players get hurt for Detroit? T-I-M-B-E-R!!!!

[John Bonnes]

I have doubts about a lot of the AL Central and the Royals are not exceptions. Losing Shields hurts a lot & that wonderful postseason run is going to skew expectations. Off the top of my head, I say 82-80.

 

I'm looking forward to more of these.

[Brananorama]

Should be a fun series.

 

There's not much here that hasn't already been said about why the Royals aren't going to repeat their success, but I think that this year the AL Central might be the #1, #2 toughest division in baseball. I have the Twins lined up for about 78-to-81 wins, and the Royals for 82-to-84. I think Chicago and Cleveland will be third and second in the mid-80's.

 

In order for the Twins to leapfrog the Royals I think it's going to come directly down to head-to-head competition between the two clubs. In a tight division where the Twins and White Sox are improving, Detroit and K.C. are regressing, and Cleveland being Cleveland, we're all going to fall around the same W/L. If we can firmly beat the Royals in the season series fourth place might be ours.

[nicksaviking]

 

I'm not much of a prediction person but I see the ALC shaping up like this:

DET

KCR

CHW

CLE

MIN (better but still last... maybe 75-78 wins)

 

 

I want to play too! 

 

I see it as so:

 

Det 85 - 78

Chi 84 - 79

Twins 79 - 85

KC 79 - 85

Cle 72 - 90

 

The math on Chicago and Detroit is not typo, the AL Central gets another game 163.  Twins finish ahead of KC due to head-to-head matchup.  Cleveland is going to stink.  Well the whole division is going to stink, just Cleveland stinks more than most.

[jimmer]

I think this prediction page needs to be saved somewhere so we can take a look at the end of the season. If my money was just my own, I'd bet a paycheck or two that the Indians don't finish last, though the wife may have something to say about that. I'm not even sure how one could come to that conclusion.

 

Edit: I just checked Steamer's projections for 2015.  They have the Indians in 2nd place in the ALC, a hair behind the Tigers.

Edited January 30, 2015 by jimmer

[Monkeypaws]

I see the Twins and White Sox moving back to the top in the next few seasons - it'll be like old times.

 

Didin't realize the Royals made it to the WS with 89 regular season wins. 

[jimmer]

I see the Twins and White Sox moving back to the top in the next few seasons - it'll be like old times.

 

Didin't realize the Royals made it to the WS with 89 regular season wins. 

A perfect example of how much of a crapshoot the playoffs are nowadays.  

[Dantes929]

"A perfect example of how much of a crapshoot the playoffs are nowadays"

They always were Jimmer.   Twins won in 87 with 85 wins.   Cards won with 83 wins in 06.  Giants won last year with 88.   Playoffs are always a crapshoot.    KC was a wild pitch away from being 0-1 last year in the playoffs rather than 11-4.    Its why I always say no one knows what would have happened if Nathan had just saved one or two games against the Yanks  or if the Twins had won game 163 back in 08.    Anyone can get hot. once there.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I think Detroit's run is over.  It's an aging team that really doesn't inspire me much.  I think KC is going to regress too, with Minnesota, Cleveland, and Chicago improving.  I think Cleveland wins the division.

[jimmer]

"A perfect example of how much of a crapshoot the playoffs are nowadays"

They always were Jimmer.   Twins won in 87 with 85 wins.   Cards won with 83 wins in 06.  Giants won last year with 88.   Playoffs are always a crapshoot.    KC was a wild pitch away from being 0-1 last year in the playoffs rather than 11-4.    Its why I always say no one knows what would have happened if Nathan had just saved one or two games against the Yanks  or if the Twins had won game 163 back in 08.    Anyone can get hot. once there.

Even moreso with 10 teams in the playoffs instead of the four there were in '87 and eight in '06.

 

In '07 all you had to do was win one series before making it to the W Series.  Way less of a crapshoot to make it to the W Series once you got to the playoffs at that point in MLB history.

Edited January 30, 2015 by jimmer

[Kwak]

I never cease to be amazed by those who see success--and then conclude that said person/team must regress the next season.  That is akin to watching coinflips then predicting that the next flip must be ... because of the previous flip or two.  If there is to be a regression I believe it is most likely by those at the extremes (Detroit and Minnesota)--Detroit is aged and has demonstrated overconfidence after "seeming" taken control of the regular season.  The Twins are built around assumptions that virtual rookies and the streaky tendencendies of Dozier, Plouffe, and Arcia can consistently produce the offense.  The older veterans could easily fall into decline if the team falls out of realistic contention.

 

The other three have plenty of youthful veterans whose career is building.  KC will have oodles of self-confidence and will be mentally tough.  CHI has added a lot and (at least as far as TD) have mentioned the very likely addition of Rodon to their staff, even if only as a RP (like Sale).  CLE is farther down the rebuilding road than the Twins.  The Twins will need a small miracle to escape the cellar.  The others will battle through September for 1st place--and any of them could prevail.

[Dantes929]

Interesting that every division in the American League had a winning record.   American league was 26 games over .500 against the Nationals.    I don't think the Central will be tougher this year as a whole but will be more competitive.   I don't think KC or Detroit will be as good.   Cleveland might be a bit better and the Twins and Sox should be better.   Makes for a tighter race but they still have to play mostly each other and the other two divisions.     I think nicksviking was pretty close except for Cleveland.   I don't see the Central being 18 games below .500.   Put Cleveland up there at 83-79 and you have a very tight division and if those are the numbers we are talking about then really the division is up for grabs.      I think all the teams will be kind of interesting.    Detroit loses their best pitcher.   KC loses one of their best but defense and bullpen were huge will keep them from sinking too far.    Run differential says the Twins should have won 75 and I still think the rotation and Mauer and Arcia will get them a bit better than that.      In the decade of 6 division wins the Twins were often picked to finish in the 3 to 5 spots and most of those years I could easily have imagined them 5-10 of their wins going the other way.