Do the Twins have a potential winner here?

[DocBauer]

OK...less than 30 days until the start of Spring Training. In the great scheme of things, we know nothing of what will ultimately transpire down in Florida, much less the 2015 ML season. For that matter, for all their expertise way above our pay grade...(OK...free)...the Twins staff and front office really don't know either. That's why they play the games boys!

 

But it is fun to put pen to paper and napkin and whatever else you can find to draw on, and make up rosters, lineups, and your own personally speculated stat lines. You can be an optimist, or a pessimist, but the season is almost upon us, and again, that's why they play the games boys!

 

For the first time in a long time, there's actually a lot of change going on with the old Twinks. First, we have a new manager and mostly new coaching staff as well. Second, the Twins have employed a group of rather exciting youngsters on the roster the past couple of seasons in the form of Arcia, Santana, Vargas, Escobar, Dozier (yes, still not that old), and Gibson to name a few prominent names. There is also an outstanding group of talented youngsters that...come on, be realistic...probably will have little effect on the 2015 season, such as Buxton, Sano, Berrios and Polanco to name a few, but could and should make an appearance at least. Third, the team has been unusually aggressive and pro-active in regard to FA and team contracts in order to solidify and improve the team/product.

 

And FOURTH, and it shouldn't be dismissed, the Twins will have new uniforms this season. (I'm still waiting for the really cool red jersey option to be implemented) Hey, don't dismiss the Karma of change and a new beginning with the new uni's that feature the...Klondike???....gold trim. (I thought that was something in Alaska or a kind of ice cream bar) I kid...I kid!  (No, really, what is the new Minnesota gold called again?)

 

I know the horse is dead and pushing up daisies, but I am mortified and borderline angry Ryan hasn't made the one, last, important, and probably cheap (salary and player trade cost)  move that could really help this team. A move for a legitimate defensive CF. Who cares of the guy would be a 1 year starter? The cost would be prohibitive, wouldn't block anyone, and could be a really nice bench player a year from now! But honestly, call me an eternal optimist if you will, I find this ONE spot to be the only real hole on the team. (Still no response from Terry and my personalized letter to him)

 

What constitutes a winning season is debatable, of course. Does it simply mean not sucking as badly in '15 while sacrificing the ML virginity of a couple top prospects upon the alter of possibility in preparation for 2016? Does it mean a .500 record, or a game or two above, hopefully with the same stabby baseball knives-dropped in a volcano to appease the baseball gods for 2016 scenario? Or are we talking "no win" until you can actually be playing meaningful games in August and September? To me it's kind of simply, an actual, real .500 or better ballclub while improving and providing a dress rehearsal for 2016 regardless of actual contention.

 

And I'm not going to predict contention this coming season, but I am thinking really hard about a Harry and Lloyd optimistic "So you're saying there's a chance" kind of above .500 season. Here's why:

 

Rotation: Hughes and regression. Maybe. But why? He had a great season last year. He is no flash in the pan. We are talking a top talent, with great stuff and potential who just couldn't find the consistency switch. He moves to MN, out of the NY sweatbox, to a better ballpark for his style, makes some adjustments, and suddenly lives up to his enormous potential. Some want to call for regression. Maybe. But how about "progression" and improving? Not saying he'll set more records, slide some here, improve there, who says he can't be as good?

 

I know it's easy to say someone, in this case a pitcher, is good when he's "ON" and not so good when he's got an "OFF" day going. But I'm not talking about a Swarzak/Pino/Deduno/Diamond kind of day/moment, (OMG, did you see what so&so did last night?). I'm talking about a guy/guys who have actual stuff to bring to the ballpark on a daily basis.

 

Gibson is/was a stud RHSP who has, unfortunately, paid not only milb dues by physical dues as well. But he has emerged on the other side of a rookie season with a lot of optimism. And make no mistake, the technicality of ONE too many innings aside, he was a rookie in '14. He made 31 starts, pitched 179.7 innings, and produced solid overall peripherals. He suffered bouts of Jekyll/Hyde disease to be sure, but Dr. Jekyll was damn good! A little more growth, a little more consistency, and Gibson could end up the Twins second best SP. There were times last season when he not only looked good, but almost dominate at times.

 

Santana has averaged 30+ GS and over 200IP with a sub 4 ERA for his career. While wins aren't always indicative of a starting pitchers true performance on a game by game or full season basis, he has averaged between 12-13 wins per. Sounds a little so-so I suppose. But he has also had seasons of 17-16-16 and 14 wins in his 10 seasons. And in his 2013 season, it could be argued, we was generally screwed on a bad KC team as he posted some of the best individual numbers of his career. If you look at his career, when healthy enough to start 30+ games, on at least a decent team, his numbers are pretty impressive.

 

Nolaso's numbers don't quite match Santana, but he's had a very solid career until last year. He is also in the 12-13 wins per category, and has 15-14-13-13-12 win totals in his 8 years plus. He's also averaged just shy of 190IP per. He actually owns a better SO-BB ratio than Santana, but a higher ERA and BAagainst. Meaning? Meaning he's solid, and consistent, just not quite as dominate or potentially dominate.

 

And then there is the May/Meyer/Milone/Pelfrey debate. It would take a miracle for Pelfrey to win this. (and maybe a roster spot period. So long...and thanks for the fish) Milone is OK, and I have nothing against him. He could sneak in as an early season starter, but I don't see it unless May/Meyer stink, or Molitor becomes obsessed with a LH in the rotation. May/Meyer is infinitely more talented, a part of the future, and ready to take this spot with the other joining in at some point.

 

Lineup and Defense: Do I really have to disturb the poor, rotting horse-sicle again? I don't know, maybe Hicks and Schafer will surprise. God I hope so. But I'm not so certain that Santana isn't our best overall option at this point. Arcia is a hitting stud in the making, still developing, and so is his defense. Hunter, I truly believe, will be a nice influence in the clubhouse, the dugout, and on the field for ONE MORE SEASON. There is just enough rubber on the tires for that one last hurrah. Defensively he's slowed down from thoroughbred to dependable mule. But, forgive me, for one season, I'd take that hard working, experienced mule over the mish-mash we shuttered out to the other corner OF spot most of last season. Offensively, the corners should be solid and OK to exciting. I guess we still have to wait and see if CF equates to exciting top of the order player, or, heaven help us, somewhere between horrible to solid hamburger helper #9 hitter.

 

If you really don't believe Mauer makes a big comeback this season, an offseason of serious work and no lingering injury effects, then shame on you! I hope the tooth-fairy leaves you a measly quarter and the Easter Bunny leaves un-edible micro milk duds on your pathway. Dozier is a stud who has done absolutely everything except the one thing he was most known for coming up through the minors, which is hit for a solid average. The guy is a stud who is entering only his THIRD full season. Plouffe has done nothing but get better and better and better offensively and defensively. The only thing he has left to do is blend his double and HR power together. Escobar vs Santana at SS is interesting. Solid and productive vs even more talented and dynamic, but less known and proven.

 

Have we really had a DH/Bat like Vargas recently? Young? Yes. Possibly some growing pains? Yes. But he is compared to Ortiz for a reason. He can flat out hit, provide power, and has that special knack for producing when he needs to.

 

We might be a couple seasons away from really settling the catcher spot. But Suzuki is very solid, can hit some, make some contact, hit doubles, provide some clutch hits, and brings confidence behind the plate. Don't underestimate that when determined to list his weaknesses. Pino is a better hitting, more powerful, better arm enigma that would seem to need do only one thing. That is, translate OK calling and good throwing from his milb career to his ML one. If he could do that, Suzuki would be a really nice backup.

 

Bullpen: Perkins. Forget the end of the season. His injury was minor. He'll be back 100%. Fien, not over-used, is very solid to very good. But he's best as a 7th inning guy. Can someone...Oliveros maybe...unseat him? I guess Graham has a shot here to make a move and do something. But can he really unseat the arms and potential of Oliveros and Tonkin and Achter? I guess we're better off if he can. I simply don't believe in Stauffer, and I hope Molitor isn't blinded unless the guy blows us away. Lots of options for both sides of the mound...the Twins have a reputation of building bullpens...I LOVE Guardado as the BP coach...and there is some really awesome BP talent on it's way up, perhaps quickly.

 

There is every reason to believe our bullpen will be solid to good. There is every reason to believe our offense from 2014, much improved, will be as good, or better...hopefully more consistent series to series...with the improvement of Arcia and others along with the addition of Hunter and a full season of Vargas. Our INF defense should be solid, and our OF defense should be no worse, (how could it be), and a little better with Hunter, and improved Arcia and possibly Santana.  The rotation will be the best we've had in many a season. While it is a range, our SP should prove anywhere from 60-70 wins. That's only a little short of some total win numbers the past few seasons.

 

Go ahead and call me a blind optimist. Say I'm overly enthused on the brink of another season. But tell and explain to me why and how I'm so wrong. OR, tell me why and how you agree the Twins are ready for .500 plus this season.

 

 

[USNMCPO]

I love baseball in the winter/spring when there is nothing but optimism. So, you are telling us there is a chance? I like it.

[jokin]

Love your optimisim Doc.  I can actually do you one better on that front for a few names, I'm slightly more optimistic on some of the names you mentioned.  

 

In the pen, Ryan has a history for finding guys with low expectations and coaxing a quality year or two or three out of them.  And Guardado might be just the guy to up the ante and coax something out of more than just one or two guys from whom we currently expect little to nothing.  The following guys aren't being much talked about, but I think represent top candidates for bullpen surprises:

 

1) Mike Pelfrey  It's up to management to sell this idea to Mike and his agent-->  Wade Davis and Pelfrey have almost the exact same career FB velocity.  In moving to the pen F/T in 2014, Davis saw a 3 MPH uptick and became a killer reliever. Perhaps there's a chance that a fully healthy Pelfrey can resurrect his career pursuing this same role.

 

2) Tim Stauffer  A very effective low-leverage guy.  The reality is he's just finished a 3-year matriculation at becoming an effective RP, and has shown incremental improvement each year. He struck out more than one/inning in 2014 (career high K/9 of 9.4) and his 2-year SIERA is a shade below 3.00.  Only a BABIP some 63 points over his career average (.356 vs ..293) kept his 2014 FIP/xFIP from being a career-best in the low-to-mid-2.00s. The guy's working on a one year, make-good deal, with Twins-friendly Ron Shapiro as his agent. If the coaching staff can gain his confidence and help him tweak and refine his change-up just a little, Ryan might have found another diamond in the rough. 

 

3) Lester Oliveros  I haven't seen him on very many projected roster lists.  He's apparently fully healthy again, having dominated AA and AAA in 2014- and at the point in his career where he just has to get over the last hurdle to becoming an effective major league reliever.   Lots of whiffs and weakly hit balls in 2014.

 

4) Stephen Pryor  No one is talking about Pryor making the team.  And yet, he did have an ERA of 0.89, a WHIP of 1.08, a K% of 27.2% and a BA of .092.  Again, if the coaches can get any kind of handle on his streaks of wildness, watch out, you've really got something here... and he's only 25 years old.

 

5) JR Graham  A Top 100 prospect by multiple scouting services in 2013, the scouts still believe in him, immediately installing Graham in the Twins Top 20 from the day he was selected in the Rule 5.   His subpar numbers in 2014 are largely due to a ridiculously low strand rate of 59.2% and a BABIP of +30 over his career rate, plus his suspect shoulder.  Again, a clean bill of health, a change of scenery and a year-long major league opportunity could really bring the best out of Graham's talented arm in the 2013 Ryan Pressly role, except he's much more talented than Pressly.

 

6) Ryan O'Rourke  The Twins really haven't had an an effective LOOGY for some time.  In 21 IPs against just left-handed batters in AA and AAA, O'Rourke's K/9 was 18.00.  That's an incredible 56% K-rate.  Also, he had a BA of .113 and a WHIP of 0.57.  That set of numbers actually yielded an underwater FIP,  that's Negative (-0.23) and a SIERA of -0.54.  Any kind of strong showing in ST and early-on in Rochester that are reminiscent to these numbers and O'Rourke is going to punch his ticket to Minnesota.  

 

7) Blaine Boyer  Everything about him suggests the second coming of Jeff Gray, including the heavy reliance on the slider as his career was beginning to implode... with one exception, Boyer doesn't walk many batters.  I still think it's about 95% odds that Boyer opts out on March 31, but you have to give Terry Ryan the 5% benefit of the doubt for his history for finding sore-armed guys from the bargain bin and revitalizing careers by an extra year or two or three.

[Willihammer]

I'm less optimistic about the bullpen. Perkins' elbow injury wasn't nothing. Neither was Meyer's shoulder, or Graham's shoulder. Then Ryan gets Stauffer because he wants "experience." Experience is not something a modern bullpen needs very much of. Even the best relievers tend to have pretty short, hot-burning shelf lives.

 

I would be more hopeful if Burdi, Jones, Cederoth, etc. had a realistic chance of breaking camp with the team. I think we're all pretty doubtful that will happen since there is such a long line of filler in front of them.

[jokin]

I'm less optimistic about the bullpen. Perkins' elbow injury wasn't nothing. Neither was Meyer's shoulder, or Graham's shoulder. Then Ryan gets Stauffer because he wants "experience." Experience is not something a modern bullpen needs very much of. Even the best relievers tend to have pretty short, hot-burning shelf lives.

 

I would be more hopeful if Burdi, Jones, Cederoth, etc. had a realistic chance of breaking camp with the team. I think we're all pretty doubtful that will happen since there is such a long line of filler in front of them.

 

 I would say there is a 0% chance that Burdi, Jones or Cederoth break camp with the Twins- but I think Burdi could be a September call-up. It's just that there are sooo many bodies to sort through at both the major league and AAA level.

 

Perk's shoulder issue could really jiggle the deck, but I think the Twins would welcome the opportunity for Graham to go on the 60-Day DL.  I'm not overly worried about Meyer's shoulder issues yet, but it does make it problematic for putting him on an unpredictable schedule in the bullpen, which was why I left him off of my list.

[DocBauer]

I can't disagree with your optimism for the pen Jokin.

 

I find Pryor intriguing, and he could end up jumping in to the mix in a hurry. I'm also big on Oliveros. Much like May and Meyer in the rotation, healthy again, he's proven just about all he needs to at the AAA level and needs/deserves a real shot. Same could be said for Tonkin.

 

My gut says the Twins won't keep Graham just because of potential, that he'll have to actually show he can contribute some. (rumors have been Atlanta would rather have him back than work out a trade with the Twins to keep him)

 

I will love Pelfrey and Stauffer if either, or both, show up big time. But injury and inconsistency and never having been a reliever before has me doubting Pelfrey, though I think the attempt is a worthwhile one. Stauffer, right now, doesn't impress me. The numbers look OK, but they were admittedly in lower leverage situations, in the NL, and in perhaps the most pitcher friendly park in the ML. I'd just rather stick with Oliveros, Tonkin, Achter, Graham and others and let them fly.

 

O'Rourke has a real shot, immediately or in the near future. Though I admit to liking him a bit more if the Twins kept 3 LH's: say O'Rourke as a LOOGY, Darnell and maybe Thielbar. And yes, I left out Duensing and Milone there. I have a strong feeling about Darnell in the bullpen. Thielbar wasn't as dominate in '14 as he had been in '13. But he wasn't bad. I think this year will determine if he's got a real future or not.

[DocBauer]

Hammer, no way any of those guys break camp with the Twins. And I think Cederoth is clearly further away. Aren't the Twins looking at him as a potential SP?

 

I do think Burdi and Jones have a real shot at making it to the Show this year, and possibly before September. I think what could hold them back is not necessarily inexperience overall, Burdi in college this time last year and Jones ending up nursing himself back to health most of last year, but just the potential depth of arms above them at the ML, AAA and AA level.

 

I like the pen options. I really do. But I'm even more excited about the rotation. I honestly expect Gibson to take a step forward, and Santana to really deepen and stabilize the rotation. I hope, hope, hope, (and mostly expect) Nolasco to rebound strongly. I have nothing against him, and he can help us. But a strong rebound means a quality trade candidate at some point, to free up a spot for a May/Meyer move.

[ashbury]

If every break goes our way, yes the team could be above .500.  The ceilings are there, for most of the positions you named, as opposed to hoping for career minor leaguers to somehow become above average, and there's a partly-new coaching staff to try and get the most out of everybody.  And maybe it's time for the breaks to trend our way.  I'm optimistic, until the first three-game losing streak.  I'm also typing this after consuming a delicious Sierra Nevada Porter, alcohol 5.6% by volume, so I reserve the right to return to sanity at some point in the future and expect a difficult but interesting season.

[jokin]

I can't disagree with your optimism for the pen Jokin.

 

 

 

 

 

I will love Pelfrey and Stauffer if either, or both, show up big time. But injury and inconsistency and never having been a reliever before has me doubting Pelfrey, though I think the attempt is a worthwhile one. Stauffer, right now, doesn't impress me. The numbers look OK, but they were admittedly in lower leverage situations, in the NL, and in perhaps the most pitcher friendly park in the ML. I'd just rather stick with Oliveros, Tonkin, Achter, Graham and others and let them fly.

 

 

 

Better than a strikeout per inning works in any park. And besides Perkins (K/9 of 9.63 vs Stauffer's 9.37), the Twins have no one who appears could come close to that number.  Fien is 2nd on the Twins relief core at 7.25 K/9.  We all didn't think much of Fien's signing when he got to Minnesota, it will be interesting to see how Stauffer plays out, maybe, just maybe, he could be the short-term set-up man who provides the bridge until the big arms in AA finally arrive on the scene.

[Dantes929]

I would never give up on a season before it starts and this group has some potential.   You can expect young guys to stagnate or get hurt or get worse but the reverse could be true.  You can expect Mauer to keep batting .270 and you may be right but it shouldn't be too unreasonable for him to bounce back.  You can expect the rotation to all have bad years but why would you at this point?   I can certainly imagine this team contending.   Doestn't mean they will.  Its up to the players to have good seasons.   Its baseball.   Outfield defense looks like the biggest weakness to me but more because of the corners than because of CF.    Doc please tell me what center fielder you would want to come in that can out.perform the platoon of Schaefer and Hicks.    Seriously, Hicks has very good stats against lefties and Schaefer is decent against righties.     Its true that Hicks is horrible from the left side and Schaefer cannot hit lefties but why even consider this when you can mostly avoid putting them in those positions?

[ashbury]

Seriously, Hicks has very good stats against lefties and Schaefer is decent against righties.     Its true that Hicks is horrible from the left side and Schaefer cannot hit lefties but why even consider this when you can mostly avoid putting them in those positions?

With 13-man starters plus bench, or even sometimes just 12, platooning is rare these days.  But maybe this is the year to try it, unless and until Hicks figures out how to hit righties.

[Monkeypaws]

I was gonna start my own optimism thread Doc. It was going to read something like, "Anyone else feel optimistic about the upcoming season?"

 

Glad I waited 

[jokin]

Love your optimisim Doc.  I can actually do you one better on that front for a few names, I'm slightly more optimistic on some of the names you mentioned.  

 

In the pen, Ryan has a history for finding guys with low expectations and coaxing a quality year or two or three out of them.  And Guardado might be just the guy to up the ante and coax something out of more than just one or two guys from whom we currently expect little to nothing.  The following guys aren't being much talked about, but I think represent top candidates for bullpen surprises:

 

1) Mike Pelfrey  It's up to management to sell this idea to Mike and his agent-->  Wade Davis and Pelfrey have almost the exact same career FB velocity.  In moving to the pen F/T in 2014, Davis saw a 3 MPH uptick and became a killer reliever. Perhaps there's a chance that a fully healthy Pelfrey can resurrect his career pursuing this same role.

 

2) Tim Stauffer  A very effective low-leverage guy.  The reality is he's just finished a 3-year matriculation at becoming an effective RP, and has shown incremental improvement each year. He struck out more than one/inning in 2014 (career high K/9 of 9.4) and his 2-year SIERA is a shade below 3.00.  Only a BABIP some 63 points over his career average (.356 vs ..293) kept his 2014 FIP/xFIP from being a career-best in the low-to-mid-2.00s. The guy's working on a one year, make-good deal, with Twins-friendly Ron Shapiro as his agent. If the coaching staff can gain his confidence and help him tweak and refine his change-up just a little, Ryan might have found another diamond in the rough. 

 

3) Lester Oliveros  I haven't seen him on very many projected roster lists.  He's apparently fully healthy again, having dominated AA and AAA in 2014- and at the point in his career where he just has to get over the last hurdle to becoming an effective major league reliever.   Lots of whiffs and weakly hit balls in 2014.

 

4) Stephen Pryor  No one is talking about Pryor making the team.  And yet, he did have an ERA of 0.89, a WHIP of 1.08, a K% of 27.2% and a BA of .092.  Again, if the coaches can get any kind of handle on his streaks of wildness, watch out, you've really got something here... and he's only 25 years old.

 

5) JR Graham  A Top 100 prospect by multiple scouting services in 2013, the scouts still believe in him, immediately installing Graham in the Twins Top 20 from the day he was selected in the Rule 5.   His subpar numbers in 2014 are largely due to a ridiculously low strand rate of 59.2% and a BABIP of +30 over his career rate, plus his suspect shoulder.  Again, a clean bill of health, a change of scenery and a year-long major league opportunity could really bring the best out of Graham's talented arm in the 2013 Ryan Pressly role, except he's much more talented than Pressly.

 

6) Ryan O'Rourke  The Twins really haven't had an an effective LOOGY for some time.  In 21 IPs against just left-handed batters in AA and AAA, O'Rourke's K/9 was 18.00.  That's an incredible 56% K-rate.  Also, he had a BA of .113 and a WHIP of 0.57.  That set of numbers actually yielded an underwater FIP,  that's Negative (-0.23) and a SIERA of -0.54.  Any kind of strong showing in ST and early-on in Rochester that are reminiscent to these numbers and O'Rourke is going to punch his ticket to Minnesota.  

 

7) Blaine Boyer  Everything about him suggests the second coming of Jeff Gray, including the heavy reliance on the slider as his career was beginning to implode... with one exception, Boyer doesn't walk many batters.  I still think it's about 95% odds that Boyer opts out on March 31, but you have to give Terry Ryan the 5% benefit of the doubt for his history for finding sore-armed guys from the bargain bin and revitalizing careers by an extra year or two or three.

 

 

Regarding the pen, I don't know how I forgot the guy I've been pushing for acquiring for a year and half now, my lottery ticket sleeper special that Ryan signed in late December-

 

8) Brayan Villareal.  He of the 100MPH+ FB and just one terrific major league season for the Tigers in 2012.  Still only 27, but a long-shot, to be sure, but then again, a little luck, some return to health and a little coaching up, and you've got another possible strikeout maching option for the late innings.

[Linus]

I've been saying since Labor Day that the Twins could contend next year if they added a starter equal to Hughes and obtained a quality CF, who can play good defense.  I based this on the idea that last year Cleveland was in contention for the second wild card spot well into September and were a little above 500.

 

While I don't know if Santana qualifies as equal to Hughes, I do know that the CF issue still exists.  So, I guess going back to my original premise, with a little luck, mostly in the form of Hicks or Schafer having a breakout season, the Twins can be 500 and contend.

 

The other thing in their favor, is that their rotation should finally be above average.  If guys get hurt or don't pitch well, there is a legitimate pitcher waiting to take their place.  This is a stark contrast to previous years.

[bird]

It's going to be an interesting season (for a change) regardless of the record (79 wins, btw ). With so many candidates for recession, and so many candidates for breakout, and failure, and comebacks. At least we'll have some decent story lines, right?

[diehardtwinsfan]

I think this is a .500 team as constructed.  I'm not terribly worried about the pen, as while guys like Burdi won't break camp in the majors, I suspect they will be here before the end of the season.  This will be another transition year, but with a lot of young guys already having some experience, I expect it to be a fun season.  We should see Buxton and Sano debut this year too, and while they will take their lumps, their talent level says that they should still produce while doing so. 

[jimmer]

I think the only way this team reaches .500 is if everything goes right.  We are still a couple years away before we can reasonably figure we'll be competitive, and that's only if a good chunk of our prospects work out like we hope.  We just don't have the talent yet.

[jokin]

It's going to be an interesting season (for a change) regardless of the record (79 wins, btw ). With so many candidates for recession, and so many candidates for breakout, and failure, and comebacks. At least we'll have some decent story lines, right?

 

I think the only way this team reaches .500 is if everything goes right.  We are still a couple years away before we can reasonably figure we'll be competitive, and that's only if a good chunk of our prospects work out like we hope.  We just don't have the talent yet.

 

Good summation.  New direction in the dugout, new blood taking more ABs and more starts. With the addition of Santana, joining Escobar, Nunez, Arcia and Vargas, and so many other Latin prospects soon to occupy this roster, we're on the verge of a cultural transformation in the clubhouse that is bound to carry over on the field- in a very good way. 

 

But contention-wise, it's likely a year away.  I predicted 70-74 wins after last year's offseason acquisitions.  Besides the expected negative regression from the sophomores and those coming off of career years,  ZiPS sees Santana providing only 0.9 additional WAR and Hunter providing just 0.4 WAR.  Those numbers hardly inspire dreams of .500 ball in 2015.  Meanwhile, ZiPS projects that Buxton, Sano, Meyer and Polanco would together provide 4.2 WAR, even as rookies.... and it's unlikely we'll see any of them on the team until it's too late to make much of a difference.

 

I'm holding off on my prediction for now on the final W-L totals.  First off, even if we all agree that the Twins have made improvements, it's not like KC, Detroit, Cleveland, and especially Chicago, have all made the choice to stand pat.  2015, more than any other year in recent times, is dependent on who the 25 are coming out of ST and shortly thereafter.   If it's Gardy redux-  ie, when in doubt, play the vets, then IMO,, it's 73-77 wins. If it's something more dynamic, that win prediction would creep closer to 80.

[DaveW]

Twins as of now look like a 77-82 win team, if a few things break right that can easily become a 86-88 win team and they can sneak into the playoffs. At that point it's a roll of the dice anyways. I think they can pull it off

[Brock Beauchamp]

Potential winner? Sure, but it requires damned near everything to go perfectly. Mauer rebounds, Nolasco rebounds, Santana rebounds... That requires three guys on the wrong side of 30 to return to perfomance levels of years past.

 

But even more is required than that...

 

Hughes has to maintain his 2014 level of performance. Gibson has to hold steady or improve a bit. Perkins has to shake off nagging injury concerns. Vargas and Santana can't slip much, if at all. Dozier has to post another .750 OPS season (actually, I think the chance of this happening is pretty good). Hunter and his creaky bones can't slide offensively.

 

If all that happens, the Twins are probably an 85-90 win team.

 

Possible? Yeah. Likely? Uh... No.

 

I think the Twins are a 75-81 win team if their luck stays neutral in 2015.

[D. Hocking]

After being inspired by the Kare11 Twinsfest boy -- I am going to say yes.  My Twins outlook has been changed by watching that video.

 

I do think they have a chance of being 500 and in the off chance everything goes their way, to being better than that.  I am not sure why -- possibly living in denial -- but I do think watching last season was not as painful as the previous couple.  Something seemed different -- the momentum had subtly shifted and they are going to be on the rise.  At this point in the year, might as well have some hope.  I am guessing 75 to 80 wins and think there is some chance of being pleasantly surprised by something better.

[Mike Sixel]

Yes, they have a potential winner......

[nytwinsfan]

I predict 75-78 wins. I think regressions from Santana and Vargas and continued poor outfield defense will largely undermine genuine improvements from Mauer and the rotation. I do expect much better things in 2016 though.

[James]

I would have to say that there is some potential.  I would think something like 74-80 wins is probably what we'll end up seeing. 

 

I do have to say though, I am getting excited for the season to start.  I think that the team will be fun to watch, even if it doesn't translate into a lot more wins.  It felt like last year was a lot more fun to watch than the previous few as well.  Maybe because we were starting to see some of the young guys that we've been reading about for so long finally start to show up.  At least, that was part of it for me.  

 

I also feel like the Twins were just playing better baseball last year.  The starting pitching was still bad, but it felt like that it was getting better.  It also felt like they were hitting enough and that they were never really out of a game.  The few seasons prior, it seemed like they would give up 3 or 4 runs and you just knew that the game was over then.  Last year, it kind of felt like the team could make that up and get back into the game.

 

At least, that is the perception I had.  I'm hoping that this year, I feel like they are in every single game.

[strumdatjaguar]

One factor you all have seemed to miss.  The biggest regression is likely to be with Phil Hughes.  He's a fly ball pitcher who needs speedy outfielders to chase down outs. Instead of fly ball outs, the Twins outfield will let too many of those fall in for hits.  Once Buxton is up here and joins an outfield with a faster left fielder and a below average Right Fielder (Arcia, Hunter), Phil Hughes will return to having better numbers (as well as the other pitchers)

[nater79a]

I think the only way this team reaches .500 is if everything goes right.  We are still a couple years away before we can reasonably figure we'll be competitive, and that's only if a good chunk of our prospects work out like we hope.  We just don't have the talent yet.

 

 That's what I think also. I'm still targeting 2017 before we are a full-fledged championship contender. Get Buxton and Sano up here at some point this season to get their feet wet. Then in 2016 Buxton and Sano will need to go through the normal adjustments that all young players have to endure...pitchers finding their "holes" and then re-adjusting to that.  2017 should also be when we see the fire-balling bullpen guys ready to help out in a big way...Reed, Burdi,and Z Jones. Two seasons from now Berrios is hopefully entrenched in the rotation. Maybe add one of the big name free-agent starters from this next off-season's deep pool and we'll be ready to rock.

[jokin]

One factor you all have seemed to miss.  The biggest regression is likely to be with Phil Hughes.  He's a fly ball pitcher who needs speedy outfielders to chase down outs. Instead of fly ball outs, the Twins outfield will let too many of those fall in for hits.  Once Buxton is up here and joins an outfield with a faster left fielder and a below average Right Fielder (Arcia, Hunter), Phil Hughes will return to having better numbers (as well as the other pitchers)

 

I mentioned it, without naming names in Post # 18

 

 

Besides the expected negative regression from the sophomores and those coming off of career years...

 

Hughes had 6.1 fWAR in 2014, and an ERA+ of 112.  HIs previous best full season SP totals at NY were 2.5 fWAR and ERA+ of 103.  Even if he regresses closer to the 2015 ZiPS projection of 4.0 fWAR or Steamer projection of 2.5 fWAR., Hughes will still have a really good year, but might be perceived as "disappointing" after his career year in 2014.  

 

I think you nailed it, if anything, the OF defense might be worse than 2014, which can't be good for Hughes' numbers.  I look for another "bounceback" year from Hughes in 2016, when the OF defense...  might... finally... be above league average. 

[bird]

The wins may not increase dramatically, but I'm hoping to see as huge an incremental improvement this year as we saw last year. We went from being out of games by the third inning in 2013 to being in most games in 2014. Unwatchable baseball in 2013, increasingly entertaining stuff in 2014. Signs of improvement from guys like Dozier and Plouffe, the first peeks at two exciting and promising guys, Santana and Vargas, who couldn't crack our top 10 prospect lists, and despite the setbacks from Buxton and Sano, we saw remarkably encouraging performances from a slew of prospects who will potentially see the big leagues some time this year.

 

I know what the record was last year, but I felt like I was watching a "winner" by the end of the season to a large extent. I expect 2015 to be a ton of fun to watch. 

[Dantes929]

Potential winner? Sure, but it requires damned near everything to go perfectly. Mauer rebounds, Nolasco rebounds, Santana rebounds... That requires three guys on the wrong side of 30 to return to perfomance levels of years past.

 

But even more is required than that...

 

Hughes has to maintain his 2014 level of performance. Gibson has to hold steady or improve a bit. Perkins has to shake off nagging injury concerns. Vargas and Santana can't slip much, if at all. Dozier has to post another .750 OPS season (actually, I think the chance of this happening is pretty good). Hunter and his creaky bones can't slide offensively.

 

If all that happens, the Twins are probably an 85-90 win team.

 

Possible? Yeah. Likely? Uh... No.

 

I think the Twins are a 75-81 win team if their luck stays neutral in 2015.

Their run scored/ given up differential indicates they should have been a 75 win team in 2014.   Santana regresses, Mauer rebounds.    The perception is that Vargas outperformed expectations also but his final numbers came in about what I would expect for a season.    I know we say the rotation has to be better every year but it will come true eventually.    I don't make predictions.   I think the Twins are capable of contending.   They are also capable of pulling up the rear.    I always like the underdog which is why I have enjoyed being a Twins fan the last dozen years.

[DocBauer]

I would never give up on a season before it starts and this group has some potential. You can expect young guys to stagnate or get hurt or get worse but the reverse could be true. You can expect Mauer to keep batting .270 and you may be right but it shouldn't be too unreasonable for him to bounce back. You can expect the rotation to all have bad years but why would you at this point? I can certainly imagine this team contending. Doestn't mean they will. Its up to the players to have good seasons. Its baseball. Outfield defense looks like the biggest weakness to me but more because of the corners than because of CF. Doc please tell me what center fielder you would want to come in that can out.perform the platoon of Schaefer and Hicks. Seriously, Hicks has very good stats against lefties and Schaefer is decent against righties. Its true that Hicks is horrible from the left side and Schaefer cannot hit lefties but why even consider this when you can mostly avoid putting them in those positions?

Sorry I didn't get back to you sooner Dante. Busy weekend.

 

Probably not a big surprise, but forgoing any better candidate brought to the forefront, my choice for CF in 2015 would be Peter Bourjos from the Cardinals.

 

1)Trade wide, he'd come cheap. (theoretically and practically) I've ready various speculation on here and other sites that have discussed his addition, and there seems to be a consensus we'd be talking about a pair of prospects in the 20's on ranking scales, possibly a 20 and a 30 throw in. Or perhaps a single prospect in the teens. Not saying bad ball players, but players the Twins could afford to lose. I'd bet low level power or a couple solid arms to replace some traded this off season.

 

2)Financially the commitment for Bourjos would be small.

 

3)I'm no scout. I know enough to be almost dangerous when pretending to play one. But literally EVERY report and opinion I have read marks him as ELITE defensively. How does that play for a fly-ball SP staff between a young and still improving and a veteran getting by on guile and experience pair of corner OF's? I have even read projections of a positive WAR based almost solely on his defensive metrics. (not that I'm a big WAR guy...but....)

 

4)He's RH vs Schafer being LH. I don't know how good Schafer really is at this point. My hope, as stated, is that he's at least close to the player we got last season, solid defense, excellent on the bases, can hit and get on base some against RHers. It would make him a solid 4th OF type with some "hamburger helper" skills and make him an OK quasi-platoon CF option against tougher RH's.

 

5)Bourjos blocks NO-ONE. He comes in, plays great defense for a year, and conceivably, loses his starting job next season to Buxton. (unless lighting strikes good or bad, earlier or later) Hunter will be gone, Buxton up, (again, in theory), Rosario will probably be ready, Hicks might be ready for some contribution after real solid AAA experience and learning, (and I was previously a "play him at this point" supporter), and we might even have Plouffe as an OF option. The point is, this smart and talented and inexpensive option goes to the bench without any roster issues.

 

6)His offense might not be as bad as suggested/reported/at first glance. I know he had some injury problems last season, his first in the NL and with the Cards, and I don't know for sure how much that might have affected him. But previously.......

 

2010: (rookie season) Unimpressive 181 AB's. BUT, he did flash some pop and speed

2011: Whoa! 147 games, 500AB's, .270 AVG w/.327OB%/.438SLG/.765OPS with speed and obvious pop

2012: Really not a great season again.

2013: Only 55 games and 175 AB's, but back to .274/.333/.377/.710OPS with power flashes and some speed.

 

I love Ryan overall. But I feel he's in a "OK, we promoted Hicks too early, and we've handled this all wrong, but we just have to get it right the 3rd time....right?"

 

I think this is the right way.