Do the Twins have a potential winner here?

[DocBauer]

Regarding the pen, I don't know how I forgot the guy I've been pushing for acquiring for a year and half now, my lottery ticket sleeper special that Ryan signed in late December-

 

8) Brayan Villareal. He of the 100MPH+ FB and just one terrific major league season for the Tigers in 2012. Still only 27, but a long-shot, to be sure, but then again, a little luck, some return to health and a little coaching up, and you've got another possible strikeout maching option for the late innings.

Jokin, I'm actually more excited about him than Stauffer. He's a bigger long shot, and there are other legit candidates he has to pass, but he's one of those guys that get to the right team, at the right time, with the right instruction, and with even a modicum of control or approach change, suddenly turn in to quality setup men.

[DocBauer]

Just a general comment.

 

As stated, interpretation for what is a "potential winner here" is open for debate. Not sure true contention is viable in 2015. Certainly, I could see pathways leading to meaningful games in August or September. My personal optimism when looking at this upcoming season, and the writing of this thread, is more about breaking that .500 barrier and continuing the march forward.

[DocBauer]

One factor you all have seemed to miss. The biggest regression is likely to be with Phil Hughes. He's a fly ball pitcher who needs speedy outfielders to chase down outs. Instead of fly ball outs, the Twins outfield will let too many of those fall in for hits. Once Buxton is up here and joins an outfield with a faster left fielder and a below average Right Fielder (Arcia, Hunter), Phil Hughes will return to having better numbers (as well as the other pitchers)

Appreciate the sentiment and understand your point of view. HOWEVER, I'm not sure the Twins OF defense could be any worse than last season, even if they TRIED to make it worse! Arcia should continue to improve, even incrementally. Hunter brings vast experience. Even if the team doesn't go out and bring someone in to play CF, as they should, Santana should be better in his second go-around, if our there. So honestly, other than just losing his approach and feel for his stuff, I'm not that worried about Hughes and regression, even though it's easy to slide down that path. I think we generally saw the real deal with him last season.

[jimmer]

If that was the real Hughes, that means he was pretty much the 5th, 6th best starting pitcher in the majors last year.  He did really well last year, all the credit to him, but I doubt he's that high up the SP food chain.

 

IMO, we did make our OF defense worse.  We brought in a horrible defensive RF who turns 40 next year and moved Arcia from his more familiar spot.  And our defensive options for CF are not looking good either.

[jokin]

If that was the real Hughes, that means he was pretty much the 5th, 6th best starting pitcher in the majors last year.  He did really well last year, all the credit to him, but I doubt he's that high up the SP food chain.

 

IMO, we did make our OF defense worse.  We brought in a horrible defensive RF who turns 40 next year and moved Arcia from his more familiar spot.  And our defensive options for CF are not looking good either.

 

I'm on board with you on this.  IMO, this looks to be the most easily predictable, and biggest preventable impediment to significant improvement as 2015 proceeds.  On the plus-side, if it becomes apparent to all, ie, that CF is the key to tightening up the whole OF situation, we can only hope that Buxton hits the ground running and makes it easy for Terry Ryan to fulfill his Twins Fest forecast for him.

[DocBauer]

I'm on board with you on this.  IMO, this looks to be the most easily predictable, and biggest preventable impediment to significant improvement as 2015 proceeds.  On the plus-side, if it becomes apparent to all, ie, that CF is the key to tightening up the whole OF situation, we can only hope that Buxton hits the ground running and makes it easy for Terry Ryan to fulfill his Twins Festr forecast for him.

 

Why do I feel I should write another "letter" to Terry Ryan?

 

Can it be so damned obvious what the single, #1 problem and weakness of this team is?

 

And it STILL hasn't been addressed in a logical, acceptable manner?

[stringer bell]

Jason Kubel, Chris Parmelee, Chris Colabello and Josh Willingham played a lot of innings in the outfield last year. Danny Santana was shockingly green in the OF when he started his first games in center. The Twins won't have those problems, along with innings for the likes of Jason Bartlett and Eduardo Escobar. The most likely replacements for the guys penciled in are better outfielders than the guys who will start the season. My vote is the outfield defense will be marginally better if the Twins spend most of the year with Arcia and Hunter on the corners and will be markedly better if players like Schafer, Rosario, and Danny Ortiz are in the mix regularly at some point in the season.

[Dantes929]

I don't know why they didn't put Hunter in left and leave Arcia in right.    I agree that they should be slightly better just in that Hunter is a better defensive outfielder than Willingham.   We had Nunez out there a bit as well and he was brutal.     We also did not have Hicks or Schaefer for the whole year and having them both together as a platoon provides opportunity to play them both in the late innings.   I look forward to having a top notch outfield defense at some point and value it greatly. For all the deficiencies this year it probably won't be the difference between contending and not contending.

[Dantes929]

With 13-man starters plus bench, or even sometimes just 12, platooning is rare these days.  But maybe this is the year to try it, unless and until Hicks figures out how to hit righties.

This is actually the ideal situation for a platoon since both can serve as late inning replacement for Hunter or Arcia.   You need a 4th outfielder anyway.   Its not like Leius and Pags sharing time at 3rd with just a little utility from Leius.   Who knows how it all shakes out.   Maybe we will see an outfield of Schaeffer, Hicks and Santana at some point if Hunter or Arcia get hurt.

[jimmer]

The problem with having such a poor defense is that it makes the pitching look worse than it is, so then we focus on THAT (the symptom) being the problem and try to fix that as opposed to focusing on the disease itself and fixing that.  If the defense was better, then the pitchers would look better and last longer into games, so then the bullpen doesn't get overworked, etc, etc...

[Brock Beauchamp]

The problem with having such a poor defense is that it makes the pitching look worse than it is, so then we focus on THAT (the symptom) being the problem and try to fix that as opposed to focusing on the disease itself and fixing that.  If the defense was better, then the pitchers would look better and last longer into games, so then the bullpen doesn't get overworked, etc, etc...

If the defense was the largest contributor to the terrible pitching staff, I'd agree... But it wasn't. The pitching staff looked bad because the pitching staff was bad.

 

Better defense would help the pitching staff somewhat but the rotation won't stop being bad until the starters stop throwing batting practice.

 

Fixing the rotation was the right decision, as it was the actual disease, not the symptom.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Jason Kubel, Chris Parmelee, Chris Colabello and Josh Willingham played a lot of innings in the outfield last year. Danny Santana was shockingly green in the OF when he started his first games in center. The Twins won't have those problems, along with innings for the likes of Jason Bartlett and Eduardo Escobar. The most likely replacements for the guys penciled in are better outfielders than the guys who will start the season

Well, the Twins still have the same front office that put those "outfielders" on the roster in the first place (and some of the same coaches that deployed them in that manner).

 

The four main guys you mention combined for about a full season in the OF, with a Rdrs/yr rate of -26.7.  We signed Hunter who had a rate of -19.4.  That's an improvement, but less than a full win.

 

Elsewhere, Danny Santana was actually league average in his time in CF, according to B-Ref.  But it's been hinted that he's moving back to SS.  The only CF options on the roster are Hicks (-8 Rdrs/yr last year) and Shafer (-14 Rdrs/yr for his CF career).  Could easily see worse results out of CF this season.

 

Bartlett and Escobar saw a combined 25 innings in the OF last year -- they were non-factors.  And Eduardo Nunez is still on the roster and might be shoe-horned into a primary backup OF role, especially if Santana goes to SS and Escobar to utility infield.

 

Improved over last year?  Possibly, but quite likely less than 1 win.  Seems like a big missed opportunity for such a glaring weakness.

[akmanak]

I just want to say it is a pleasure reading the member's articles. You are getting me stoked about the season and giving me a better insight at what kind of team we have.

Thank you

[jimmer]

I agree with the post that advocates in favor of acquiring Peter Bourjos, especially if the price is two prospects in the 20s or one in the teens. I live in LA now and saw him play when he was with the Angels. He is an ELITE center fielder greatly helped that team when it had mediocre corner outfielders. He would cover a lot of the mistakes and range issues that both Arcia and Hunter have and he can hit a little bit too. He's going to be int he bottom of the lineup but a .325 OBP and real speed works in the #8 or #9 hole. I really think he would be a great addition. 

I agree, Bourjos would help a lot.  Look at the Orioles rotation.  They had a FIP worse than our rotation's FIP, yet their rotation ERA was a run and a half lower than ours.  That defense really helped them. overall. Our rotation had the largest ERA-FIP gap in the majors last year. Over a full run difference. Only two other teams had a ERA-FIP gap at over .5 but less than 1 runs, and one was exactly .5, while the other was .51.

 

In 2013, we also had the biggest gap between ERA and FIP.

[Otto von Ballpark]

If the defense was the largest contributor to the terrible pitching staff, I'd agree... But it wasn't. The pitching staff looked bad because the pitching staff was bad.

I kind of agree with you, but it wasn't just the bad pitchers who suffered.  Hughes had an incredible season but got stuck with an ERA almost a full run higher than his FIP.  Gibson kept the ball in the park and got a lot of grounders with a good infield behind him... but had an ERA 0.70 higher than his FIP.   Nolasco continued his trend of FIP under-performance... which he established in front of a perennially weak Marlins defense:

http://twinsdaily.com/articles.html/_/minnesota-twins-news/minnesota-twins/ricky-nolasco-back-to-the-future-r3306

 

Despite having notably better starters than 2013, our starter ERA-FIP difference was actually larger in 2014.

 

I don't think an aggressive outfield defensive upgrade would have vaulted our 2014 staff to league average like some posters here, but I think it was a factor worth addressing a lot more than we did.

[Dantes929]

The problem with having such a poor defense is that it makes the pitching look worse than it is, so then we focus on THAT (the symptom) being the problem and try to fix that as opposed to focusing on the disease itself and fixing that.  If the defense was better, then the pitchers would look better and last longer into games, so then the bullpen doesn't get overworked, etc, etc...

Jimmer, I really dislike our outfield defense.   I don't like Arcia in the outfield but I think he is going to mash so do not want him moved.   I didn't love the Hunter acquisition but believe he will be better both offensively and defensively than Willingham so was ok that while not good there we are still better.   I have been endorsing the platoon of Schaefer and Hicks because it makes sense but if we got an elite defensive centerfielder that doesn't drop off from those two offensively as Doc suggests until Buxton arrives I am all for it.     I agree with Brock that the rotation was the main disease but have seen too many big innings that could have been avoided by better outfield defense so my best analogy is this.   I equate the Twins pitching last year to anemia and our outfield defense is the medical equivalent of treating that disease with blood letting or applying leaches.  It didn't cause the anemia but it definitely made it worse.   Arrival of Buxton and Rosario when Hunter moves on will be the transfusion that will cure many of our ills.

[jimmer]

Jimmer, I really dislike our outfield defense.   I don't like Arcia in the outfield but I think he is going to mash so do not want him moved.   I didn't love the Hunter acquisition but believe he will be better both offensively and defensively than Willingham so was ok that while not good there we are still better.   I have been endorsing the platoon of Schaefer and Hicks because it makes sense but if we got an elite defensive centerfielder that doesn't drop off from those two offensively as Doc suggests until Buxton arrives I am all for it.     I agree with Brock that the rotation was the main disease but have seen too many big innings that could have been avoided by better outfield defense so my best analogy is this.   I equate the Twins pitching last year to anemia and our outfield defense is the medical equivalent of treating that disease with blood letting or applying leaches.  It didn't cause the anemia but it definitely made it worse.   Arrival of Buxton and Rosario when Hunter moves on will be the transfusion that will cure many of our ills.

please see my post above about the FIP-ERA gap.

[Mike Sixel]

Just because the pitching was bad, does not mean fixing the defense is not also a good idea. Some seem to be implying that. It is possible to fix both. 

 

The delta between ERA and FIP is meaningful, even if the Twins imply* it is not. The fact that it continues, year after year, should concern people that want a winner, imo.

 

*At least I think Ryan has been implying that, that is not about the defense, it is ONLY about the pitching, but I might be parsing his statements (and actions) incorrectly.

[jimmer]

Until the defense is even average (which we are a long way from), our team will continue to give up more runs than it should, which will knock out or starters sooner than they likely deserve, which will overwork the pen and on and on. For a team whose long-time philosophy was to get and groom pitchers that pitch to defense, allowing the defense to be this bad is inexcusable.

[Major League Ready]

If I were a betting man, I would take even money on 76 wins with a +/- of two wins/losses.

[jokin]

If I were a betting man, I would take even money on 76 wins with a +/- of two wins/losses.

 

You won't get me to bet against you.  I'm at 73-77 wins and sticking with it unless certain things happen in March and April.

[jokin]

Just because the pitching was bad, does not mean fixing the defense is not also a good idea. Some seem to be implying that. It is possible to fix both. 

 

The delta between ERA and FIP is meaningful, even if the Twins imply* it is not. The fact that it continues, year after year, should concern people that want a winner, imo.

 

*At least I think Ryan has been implying that, that is not about the defense, it is ONLY about the pitching, but I might be parsing his statements (and actions) incorrectly.

 

I don't think you are, at least based on his fairly feeble "defense of the defense" in relation to the press conference at the Hunter signing.

[DAM DC Twins Fans]

If I were a betting man, I would take even money on 76 wins with a +/- of two wins/losses.

I actually am going with 75. I don't see how with the defense (until Buxton gets here) has improved at all. Mauer may or may not come back--buck Vargas will regress as will D. Santana. E. Santana may or may not be a 2/3 in rotation--but Hughes will regress. No improvement right now in team.

 

Our true hope is development of the kids like Buxton, Sano, Meyer. They all need to be here after AS break and get their feet wet.

[jimmer]

I actually am going with 75. I don't see how with the defense (until Buxton gets here) has improved at all. Mauer may or may not come back--buck Vargas will regress as will D. Santana. E. Santana may or may not be a 2/3 in rotation--but Hughes will regress. No improvement right now in team.

 

Our true hope is development of the kids like Buxton, Sano, Meyer. They all need to be here after AS break and get their feet wet.

I'd be happy if this team won 5 more games than it did last year.  It's mostly the same starting team except our OF defense likely got worse by adding Hunter and we added Santana to the rotation.  Many of our players are due for regression offensively (Plouffe, Escobar, D. Santana, Vargas) , or at least seem to be due for it.  Hughes is due for regression.  Mauer is due for regression to the positive, but really, why should we expect the offense to be any better than last year? At the very best it will be as good as it was. The rotation adds a guy, but overall this team should be happy to reach 75 as is currently constructed, especially when you consider the other teams in our division.

[jokin]

The problem with having such a poor defense is that it makes the pitching look worse than it is, so then we focus on THAT (the symptom) being the problem and try to fix that as opposed to focusing on the disease itself and fixing that.  If the defense was better, then the pitchers would look better and last longer into games, so then the bullpen doesn't get overworked, etc, etc...

 

The Twins pitching staff has had the highest contact rate in each of the last 4 years. Not surprisingly, (both starters and as a whole), they've also had the lowest K% in each of the last four years.  They've also surrendered the highest BABIP in 3 of the last 4 years.   The defense can only be (partially) responsible for the last stat.  

 

But it's management that is responsible for seeing these glaringly obvious deficiencies in both departments and failing to properly address them. The "cheap fix" of the two deficiency areas was/is addressing the defense, and the Twins answer was to pay $10.5M to a soon-40 year old RFer, coming off of a year where he had the lowest defensive ranking in all of baseball.

[jimmer]

The Twins pitching staff has had the highest contact rate in each of the last 4 years. Not surprisingly, (both starters and as a whole), they've also had the lowest K% in each of the last four years.  They've also surrendered the highest BABIP in 3 of the last 4 years.   The defense can only be (partially) responsible for the last stat.  

 

But it's management that is responsible for seeing these glaringly obvious deficiencies in both departments and failing to properly address them. The "cheap fix" of the two deficiency areas was/is addressing the defense, and the Twins answer was to pay $10.5M to a soon-40 year old RFer, coming off of a year where he had the lowest defensive ranking in all of baseball.

Yes, the pitchers pitched to the Twins philosophy which is let the ball get put into play and have the defense behind you take care of business. It's a nice idea if the defense is good. They continued to get and groom pitchers to fit this philosophy and yet abandoned defense.  They are now starting to change the pitching philosophy, but that takes time for those changes to be seen at the major league level. In the meantime, we see the results of the disconnect.

[jokin]

Yes, the pitchers pitched to the Twins philosophy which is let the ball get put into play and have the defense behind you take care of business. It's a nice idea if the defense is good. They continued to get and groom pitchers to fit this philosophy and yet abandoned defense.  They are now starting to change the pitching philosophy, but that takes time for those changes to be seen at the major league level. In the meantime, we see the results of the disconnect.

 

That's the word I was looking for... but even as they are trying to change the philosophy in the minors-

 

a process that is taking more than half a decade before it's finally accomplished- ie, it appears we won't see May or Meyer in the rotation starting out- that could end up being 3 seasons without dividends from trading away (and not replacing) your only experienced/competent OFers-  

 

they don't see the obvious necessity in acquiring a quick/cheap fix in the OF in the hopes of making their current Twins Way philosophy work as originally envisioned.  

 

Yes.... "disconnect" works well here.  

[Brock Beauchamp]

I don't think an aggressive outfield defensive upgrade would have vaulted our 2014 staff to league average like some posters here, but I think it was a factor worth addressing a lot more than we did.

I agree that it should have been addressed, I'm only refuting that it was the disease and not a symptom.

[Mike Sixel]

But it is part of the "run prevention" disease. Both pitching and defense contribute.....

[Brock Beauchamp]

But it is part of the "run prevention" disease. Both pitching and defense contribute.....

True, but pitching has waaaaaaaaaaayyyyyy more impact. It's not even close.

 

You could put me out there and I'd get to 90% of flyballs hit my direction. Put me on the mound and I'd be the first guy to give up 18 consecutive home runs (provided I could get it over the plate often enough to not walk every batter I faced).

 

Fix the biggest problems first. If you have money/space left over - and IMO, the Twins could have shored up both issues this offseason - then fix the smaller problems.