The Elephant in the Room: Joe Mauer

Secondary User · December 9, 2014

The biggest concern for Joe over the last two years (even before the concussion), is that his K% is alarmingly high. If he gets his K% down to his career average of 11.8% (including the past two atrocious years, otherwise it's around 10%), he's hitting .304/.390/.403. If Mauer wants to fix Mauer, he needs to lose the Ks

Old Twins Cap · December 9, 2014

Who doesn't want Mauer to return to being Mauer? The question is: what's holding Joe back?

I sure get tired of watching little plunk shots to left field from a number 3 hitter. Bloops, duck snorts and jam shots, sometimes counted as doubles.

Joe's defenders have to deal with his increasing K % and his inability to drive the ball. Those two combined are a pretty devastating combination that can't be explained away or corrected.

My personal opinion is that Joe was a phenom at a young age, three sports, could have been a college quarterback, never struck out in high school (ok, just once). You don't get that level of excellence by chance. Your mind, your body, it all comes together there at a young age in a kid who is 6' 5".

A legitimate number one draft choice. Wins three batting titles in his early MLB career. Great athlete all around.

He could easily be someone whose abilities peaked at a young age. Instead of declining on the normal Bell Curve, Joe is winding down at his own pace, a little early, a little more steeply than others of his caliber. Sometimes life goes that way. It's not fair, and it may not be right. But, the star sure burned bright in the early days.

Secondary User · December 9, 2014

Mauer actually had his best season driving the ball over the last two years. His LD% was a career high 27% over the last two seasons, up from his career average of 21% in the years before that

Thrylos · December 9, 2014

I think around 130 OPS+ is reasonable as a floor. This is pretty close to what he did in August & September after he returned. Another year removed from his injuries and with his body healing and I am really optimistic for a repeat of 2013 at least.

TheLeviathan · December 9, 2014

Mauer actually had his best season driving the ball over the last two years. His LD% was a career high 27% over the last two seasons, up from his career average of 21% in the years before that

I think that has more to do with what constitutes a "line drive" because I didn't see much "driving" from Mauer.

TheLeviathan · December 9, 2014

I think around 130 OPS+ is reasonable as a floor. This is pretty close to what he did in August & September after he returned. Another year removed from his injuries and with his body healing and I am really optimistic for a repeat of 2013 at least.

You think his "Floor" (meaning: worst he could do) is 130+? He's getting older, injuries and a sore body might just be par for the course. Which means his "floor" is nothing nearly this high.

laloesch · December 9, 2014

Even though his moniker is General Soreness in my household, I've become convinced, like a lot of you, that his primary issue is a failure, and perhaps a refusal, to adjust his thinking, and his approach, and that his performance decline has less to do with injury and/or physical decline.

First pitch strikes. Big sigh. And 97.327% of his line drives are hit to an area with a radius of 7.334 feet according to BirdGraphs. But even more maddening to BirdGraphs is his clear failure to adjust his mentality with runners on base. According to BirdGraphs, he still is just as happy to coax a walk in that situation as he is to plunk one of his liners just out of the reach of the left fielder. Until BirdGraphs sees that he's jerked a few mediocre fastballs to right with men on, I'll remain in the camp of the less optimistic. Just hoping that, absent Gardy's fawning over how great he is, General Soreness will be up to the task of changing his stubborn ways.

Gotta warn you, though, that BirdGraphs can be a bit temperamental.

Bam! I think you hit the nail on the head with this statement. Concussion this concussion that, his problem is the refusal to swing at first pitch strikes. He has had that trait his whole career. The predictability of his hitting is so precise that teams have focused in on his batting approach and attempts at pulling the ball to right field. He is WAY WAY to predictable and it's killing him. If he doesn't figure out how to change things up and vary his approach his career is over as an all-star hitter.

drock2190 · December 10, 2014

I'm at the point, I wish they would trade him. His best years are behind him and I'm okay with him leaving. Plus he's a below average 1st baseman and they could put Vargas at 1st and move Arcia to DH. And mix and match according to the opposing pitcher.

Not to mention the payroll would get some relief.

stringer bell · December 10, 2014

By the conclusion of the season, Mauer was pretty good at first base. He's got a longer reach than most and probably more athleticism than most first basemen. As I said earlier, every first baseman is hit-first and defense isn't the most crucial at first base, but I think Mauer held his own or more defensively.

ashbury · December 10, 2014

This is going to cause your BA to (likely) be markedly higher than your overall BA.

Likely? If only there were a place to look such things up.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/split.cgi?t=b&lg=AL&year=2014

League-wide, batters had a .341 BA on first pitches put in play, if I'm reading that correctly. Overall BA was .253.

League wide, it looks like about 10% of PA were decided on the first pitch. For Mauer, it was only 5%. So we're not imagining that. However, the ratios of 1-0 versus 0-1 pitches look about the same for Mauer as for the league, so (again if I'm not misinterpreting) it's not as though Mauer is just standing there looking at strike one, PA after PA. It's really unclear from the stats that swinging more at the first pitch will solve anything.

Pitch recognition and selection would seem more the issue, based on the higher number of strikeouts and the way he looks when making those strikeouts.

KGB · December 10, 2014

Mauer actually had his best season driving the ball over the last two years. His LD% was a career high 27% over the last two seasons, up from his career average of 21% in the years before that

On the LD%, I'm going to have to agree with Torii Hunter, I'm going to believe my eyes and not the stat. There was very little drive in Mauers bat last year no matter what the stats say.

laloesch · December 10, 2014

I'm at the point, I wish they would trade him. His best years are behind him and I'm okay with him leaving. Plus he's a below average 1st baseman and they could put Vargas at 1st and move Arcia to DH. And mix and match according to the opposing pitcher.

Not to mention the payroll would get some relief.

I agree as well. I know the Joe Mauer contingent of fans will freak out if they traded him, but let's face it. Joe is a mediocre first baseman who has no business hitting 3rd in anyone's lineup. At the very least, he should be moved down in the order to #5 or #6, eliminating all the rally killing double plays.

jay · December 10, 2014

Joe is a mediocre first baseman who has no business hitting 3rd in anyone's lineup. At the very least, he should be moved down in the order to #5 or #6, eliminating all the rally killing double plays.

He's never been a great 3-hole guy outside of his MVP season.

Even at his 2014 production levels, he can be a valuable 2-hole hitter. His high OBP is much more valuable at #2 than #6.

SwainZag · December 10, 2014

I agree as well. I know the Joe Mauer contingent of fans will freak out if they traded him, but let's face it. Joe is a mediocre first baseman who has no business hitting 3rd in anyone's lineup. At the very least, he should be moved down in the order to #5 or #6, eliminating all the rally killing double plays.

Joe actually isn't a mediocre 1B who actually posted a positive fielding value in his 1st year playing the position and it was very apparent while he struggled early on he only got better as the season went on.

People need to get past the notion that your 1B should be a guy who hits 40 HR and drives in 120 runs. While I agree Joe has no business batting 3rd, it's not his fault that Gardy continually put him there. His has the numbers of a #2 hitter for basically his entire career.

Even with Joe arguably having his worst season as a pro, his OBP of 361 still led the team. Joe is not going to get traded. His contract always assures that and the fact he is Joe Mauer playing for the Twins cements it. While he is not worth his contract, even in his worst season fangraphs still had his worth at $10.6M last year. I'm calling for a bounce back season from Joe.

TheLeviathan · December 11, 2014

People need to get past the notion that your 1B should be a guy who hits 40 HR and drives in 120 runs

I'm confused why we shouldn't expect power production from a power position.

tobi0040 · December 11, 2014

I'm confused why we shouldn't expect power production from a power position.

Because we gave Joe Mauer $180M!!!!!!!!!!!!

Pius Jefferson · December 11, 2014

He's never been a great 3-hole guy outside of his MVP season.

Even at his 2014 production levels, he can be a valuable 2-hole hitter. His high OBP is much more valuable at #2 than #6.

Mauer was never a great third hitter, but he was good enough in his prime to hit third for a playoff team. It wasn't just because Gardenhire didn't want to hurt his feelings.

Now he's kind of a player without number in the batting order. Not good enough for third and not necessarily suited to hit second at this point of his career.

Linus · December 11, 2014

Alright - it looks like we found a replacement for Drew Butera role as TD whipping boy. I was wondering who would be next.

I guess I really didn't think it would be a Gold Glove, MVP, three time batting champion but, oh well. Times change, so do fan's sensibilities......

jay · December 11, 2014

Not good enough for third and not necessarily suited to hit second at this point of his career.

Why not second? Please don't say it's about speed and bunting.

sftwins · December 11, 2014

.270, 10HR & 70 RBI is acceptable for a catcher which is where he needs to play.

SwainZag · December 11, 2014

.270, 10HR & 70 RBI is acceptable for a catcher which is where he needs to play.

and people need to get over that he's not going to catch anymore.

curt1965 · December 11, 2014

Ok-got to get this off my chest. I've been listening to fans bitch about Mauer for the last couple of years.

Where were all of you haters when Joe was winning batting championships, MVP, and Silver Sluggers?

What would all of you said if Joe had left when he had a chance? It is not Mauer's fault that the Polad's gave him his huge contract. He didn't sign a notorized document promising to hit .340 every year with 30 HR's.

Most fans seem to think that if you sign a large contract, you have to perform at a certain level. You have got to be kidding me! We all hope that, but come on, their are no guarantees! No one knows what effect his concussion had. Were concussions behind the declining performances of Cory Koskie and Justin Moreneau?

Most fans understood them. But Mauer is the white, rich, pretty boy from Minneapolis who is quiet and doesn't break his back over his knee when he strikes out. He's an easy target. Let's see what happens when he leads the league in hitting again. Oh, I forgot, because he's 6'6"- he has to hit a ton a homers too.

h2oface · December 11, 2014

People need to get past the notion that your 1B should be a guy who hits 40 HR and drives in 120 runs.

Why? Sounds like a great first baseman to me.

h2oface · December 11, 2014

He didn't sign a notorized document promising to hit .340 every year with 30 HR's.

No......... but his daddy said many times that Joe would be the next person to hit .400!

Personally, I could never understand why a guy that big with the anointed "perfect swing" didn't hit 40 dingers a year.

jay · December 11, 2014

Why? Sounds like a great first baseman to me.

Because they don't exist in today's game. This isn't the Steroid Era anymore.

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=1b&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2014&month=0&season1=2014&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=5,d

USAFChief · December 11, 2014

40 HR hitters existed before anyone ever took steroids, they will exist again.

They're just rarer now, as they should be.

Personally, if Mauer puts up an OPS north of .950, like the Twins need from him, I won't care how much of that comes from HRs.

KGB · December 11, 2014

Ok-got to get this off my chest. I've been listening to fans bitch about Mauer for the last couple of years.
Where were all of you haters when Joe was winning batting championships, MVP, and Silver Sluggers?
What would all of you said if Joe had left when he had a chance? It is not Mauer's fault that the Polad's gave him his huge contract. He didn't sign a notorized document promising to hit .340 every year with 30 HR's.
Most fans seem to think that if you sign a large contract, you have to perform at a certain level. You have got to be kidding me! We all hope that, but come on, their are no guarantees! No one knows what effect his concussion had. Were concussions behind the declining performances of Cory Koskie and Justin Moreneau?
Most fans understood them. But Mauer is the white, rich, pretty boy from Minneapolis who is quiet and doesn't break his back over his knee when he strikes out. He's an easy target. Let's see what happens when he leads the league in hitting again. Oh, I forgot, because he's 6'6"- he has to hit a ton a homers too.

I think Mauer was very much appreciated after winning 3 batting titles and an MVP before reaching the prime of most players. But it looks like he peaked as a player at 27 which I think is what has disappointed many people.

Nobody should expected 40 home runs - but FOUR? That is hard to defend.

jay · December 11, 2014

Personally, if Mauer puts up an OPS north of .950, like the Twins need from him, I won't care how much of that comes from HRs.

Was that a typo? The Twins need him to do what only 3 players in all of MLB did last year (VMart, Abreu, McCutchen)? That seems like some exceptionally steep expectations...

dbminn · December 11, 2014

According to Baseball Reference, Mauer after the DL (Post-August 10) had a line of .289/.397/.408. BR has Mauer's OPS+ vs. splits at 137 and 134 for August and September.

I expect he'll have a better average and slugging percentage if he can stay healthy.

To those that say he's been on a rather dramatic decline, here's his 2013 stat line:

.324/.404/.476

Only Mauer's 2006 and 2009 seasons were better. It's not crazy to believe he could have an upside that looks similar to 2013.

tobi0040 · December 11, 2014

40 HR hitters existed before anyone ever took steroids, they will exist again.

They're just rarer now, as they should be.

Personally, if Mauer puts up an OPS north of .950, like the Twins need from him, I won't care how much of that comes from HRs.

Last year, Cruz was the only guy to have 40 HR in baseball. In 2000, 16 different players had 40 or more. Including Richard Hidaldgo, David Justice, and our very own Tony Bautista. Three of the last four years, nobody in the NL hit 40.

As it relates to Mauer, his OPS + was 107 last year and it was a terrible year for him. So that speaks to how good he has been. He may never hit even 20 HR in a season, but he does not need a huge bounce back to be even an above average 1B. An OPS return to .825 would have made him the 8th best hitting 1B in baseball last year.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/history/leaders/_/breakdown/season/year/2000/sort/homeRuns

http://www.baseball-almanac.com/hitting/hihr5.shtml

http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/sortable.jsp#sectionType=sp&sortColumn=ops&season=2014&league_code='MLB'&statType=hitting&game_type='R'&elem=%5Bobject+Object%5D&tab_level=child&click_text=Sortable+Player+hitting&season_type=ANY&page=1&ts=1418307151121&position='3'