Article: Who Says No? Brian Dozier Edition

[h2oface]

I would want to see what Dozier does this year first.  No hurry.  Either way, it works for trade value, and that seems what is the most important these days..... hoping a prospect can become a MLB player, but trading him for a prospect when they do, and waiting and hoping again they make it to the show so you can trade them.

[Willihammer]

I think if the Twins wait another year then they are looking at a Seager type extension money. At that point its almost, why bother? There isn't much money to be saved in extensions after a player cements himself as a solid big league regular anymore.

[DuluthFan]

If those are the contract numbers being offered, I would say WAIT. Those numbers are inflated. Dozier is still under team control this year and will not make anywhere near $1 million this year. Next year is his first arbitration year. Unless the player is an all star or a league leader in several offensive stats, he isn't worth that much in his first arbitration contract.

 

The smart play is to WAIT until the first arbitration year to make any huge contract offer. If you wait until arbitration figures are exchanged you will then know what kind of money the player is looking for and you can then project what he will be willing to accept in a long term deal.

[Thrylos]

No way.  Only one season with above league average OPS+.   The Twins control him for 3 seasons and have the likes of Santana, Polanco, Gordon, Michael in the pipeline for the 2 middle infield positions.   I'd sell high as a matter of fact and start 2015 with a middle infield of Escobar and Santana with Polanco waiting.

[jorgenswest]

I would hope the Twins are thinking about this contract two/three moves ahead... a team-favorable contract as in the case of Denard Span, will make Dozier a desirable piece to more teams when it comes time to move him. 

 

Example, the WAR numbers say Neil Walker is clearly an inferior player and is set to earn $8.6M in his second year of arbitration.  Based on the rate that salaries are climbing, Seth's estimate of 8-10M in Dozier's second year as arb eligible is likely going to end up being too low.  $7M for Dozier in 2017 could be looking pretty cheap to prospective suitors who will be looking at potential sticker shock on Howie Kendrick, Jose Altuve, Daniel Murphy, et al.

Walker is projected for a better season next year. Projections need to be based on 3-5 years and Walker has been consistently strong longer. His projection from steamer of 3.4 compared to 2.9 for Dozier is pretty close so the comp is a good one. I don't think any arbiter would accept the clearly inferior argument, but the number aspect makes sense.

[beckmt]

I do not agree with Thrylos very often, but here I do.  Sell high.  I view Brian Dozier as version 2.0 of Brandon Phillips and we all see how that worked out.  Twins have many options in AA and above next year to replace him.

[zchrz]

Gyorko got 5 and 35, Seager got 7 and 100, both are comparable players and I would expect Dozier to be somewhere in the middle of that. 6 for 50-60 is in the neighborhood for Dozier. 

 

I wouldn't mind if he got traded but I think he gets resigned because he is becoming a major club house presence and seems like the kind of player that is right up Molitor's avenue.

Edited November 26, 2014 by zchrz

[Thrylos]

I wouldn't mind if he got traded but I think he gets resigned because he is becoming a major club house presence and seems like the kind of player that is right up Molitor's avenue.

 

I think that if the Twins packaged him and Kohl Steward or Jose Berrios plus maybe another prospect, they can get Jordan Zimmermann.   If they extend Zimmermann, who would you rather have? 

 

Competitive teams close holes and are opportunistic.  And are not afraid to sell high.

[jokin]

Walker is projected for a better season next year. Projections need to be based on 3-5 years and Walker has been consistently strong longer. His projection from steamer of 3.4 compared to 2.9 for Dozier is pretty close so the comp is a good one. I don't think any arbiter would accept the clearly inferior argument, but the number aspect makes sense.

 Dozier is two years younger, I have no argument that Walker has a longer track record. I also agree that the decision involves a bit of speculation and poker on the part of both parties.  But if Dozier just continues on his current path, even somewhere between 2013 and 2014 (I'm not sure how he should be fairly evaluated to drop to 2.9 WAR, much lower than either of his last two seasons???), plus salary inflation, he's going to make a whole lot more than Walker when he reaches Arb2.

 

Consider just the last two seasons, and hence my point about who has been the better player:

 

Dozier rWAR  9.0 /d WAR 2.2

Walker rWAR  7.6 /d WAR 1.2

[Halsey Hall]

I'm in the camp of wait another year also.  Dozier's shown me a few things, he can turn on a fastball, he's good in the clubhouse, and he plays excellent defense.  Is that worth multi-millions?  It drives me nuts he won't hit the other way.  So many fat pitches to drive to right and he's trying to pull the ball.  No way he should only be hitting .240.  He's got to learn to go the other way to stay in the majors.  I could see him raise his average 35 points doing that.  If he can do that, he's looking at a pile of gold.  But he's got to show me first. 

[Thrylos]

 

Consider just the last two seasons, and hence my point about who has been the better player:

 

Dozier rWAR  9.0 /d WAR 2.2

Walker rWAR  7.6 /d WAR 1.2

 

WAR is a cumulative metric, so if one player has more PAs (and by hitting Dozier lead off, it is because of the manager) has higher WAR.    For the sake of completeness and normalized

 

Last 2 seasons:

Dozier: 1330 PA, 8.9 rWAR, 7.3 fWAR, 6.69 rWAR/1000 PA, 5.49 fWAR/1000 PA

Walker: 1220 PA, 7.6 rWAR, 6.4 fWAR, 6.22 rWAR/1000 PA, 5.24 fWAR/1000 PA

Last 3 seasons:

Dozier: 1670 PA, 9.6 rWAR, 6.8 fWAR, 5.74 rWAR/1000 PA, 4.07 fWAR/1000 PA

Walker: 1750 PA, 10.1 rWAR, 9.0 fWAR, 5.77 rWAR/1000 PA, 5.14 fWAR/1000 PA

 

Not that different the last 2 seasons, and Walker better the last 3 seasons.  

[TheLeviathan]

I'd wait for two reasons 1) Make sure Dozier is consistent enough to warrant an investment and 2) Shorten the extension and/or buy out an extra year.

 

I just want more data on what Dozier exactly is before I'd be comfortable giving him that much money.

[jokin]

WAR is a cumulative metric, so if one player has more PAs (and by hitting Dozier lead off, it is because of the manager) has higher WAR.    For the sake of completeness and normalized

 

Last 2 seasons:

Dozier: 1330 PA, ***8.9 rWAR, 7.3 fWAR, 6.69 rWAR/1000 PA, 5.49 fWAR/1000 PA

Walker: 1220 PA, 7.6 rWAR, 6.4 fWAR, 6.22 rWAR/1000 PA, 5.24 fWAR/1000 PA

Last 3 seasons:

Dozier: 1670 PA, 9.6 rWAR, 6.8 fWAR, 5.74 rWAR/1000 PA, 4.07 fWAR/1000 PA

Walker: 1750 PA, 10.1 rWAR, 9.0 fWAR, 5.77 rWAR/1000 PA, 5.14 fWAR/1000 PA

 

Not that different the last 2 seasons, and Walker better the last 3 seasons.  

***From Baseball Reference-  Dozier 2013 WAR  3.8 + 2014 WAR 5.2 = 9.0 WAR    not 8.9 WAR.  That's a 1.4 WAR difference, and the trend appears to be heading in Dozier's direction.  If 1.0 WAR is supposed to represent $6M, and now likely $7M, the trend seems to be Dozier's friend for a bigger arb award in 2017, especially being two years younger.

 

 

Dozier only played half the season in his first (failed) year, and as I acknowledged previously, Walker has the longer track record upon which to judge. And Walker has only played in 129, 133 and 137 games the last 3 seasons, by contrast, Dozier has played in 147 and 156 games the last two seasons, so normalization of WAR isn't entirely accurate in terms of a batting-order-manager-decision difference.  In point of fact,  Dozier has played 33 more games than Walker over the last two seasons, 5th most for all 2nd baseman,, definitely a valuable data-point for clubs seeking durability at a key defensive position.

 

Another big difference is the area you have completely left out- the Baseball Reference defensive metric in the overall component, which shows Dozier grading out the better 2nd baseman.

Edited November 26, 2014 by jokin

[jorgenswest]

I guess we disagree about whether or not an arbiter would see Walker as clearly inferior.

[dxpavelka]

Dozier may have peaked in 2014. I wouldn't sign him long term, certainly not this year. I wouldn't mind seeing him dangled in a trade offer, selling at what could be his high market value. I was very troubled by his second half power decrease. I fear the Twins may have already seen his best

Not only might he have peaked in 2014 he may have done so with a .242 average.  Power can be fleeting.  23 home runs is not a lot for a .242 hitter especially when only 5 of them came after the All-Star break.  Eddie Rosario, Jorge Polanco, Levi Michael, maybe even Nick Gordon.  Lots of guys who may be quite capable of playing second base in the near future at the level that we've been led to believe Dozier is a near all-star at.

[jokin]

I guess we disagree about whether or not an arbiter would see Walker as clearly inferior.

 

Only if the arbiter sees more from the numbers I've cited that show Dozier's done better, plus the two year's difference in their ages going forward to 2017.

 

Right now, Walker has the longer track record in his favor, the other indicators appear to be going in Dozier's direction. Again, even if he regresses as Steamer projects, the strong salary inflation dynamic in MLB is going to push up that Arb 2 number quite a bit by 2017.

Edited November 26, 2014 by jokin

[Richie the Rally Goat]

It worked out really well for the Twins on the Span deal, not so much with Nick Blackburn - I think those might be the two extremes. To me it boils down to whether Dozier can be reasonably expected to stay healthy and productive for the next 2-3 years. The original post proposal would be totally worth it at that point. 

 

Had Span not gotten that concussion, I think he might have netted the Twins even more in trade than they got from the Nationals.

we don't really know how Dozier is going to play in the future, but we know even less about the alternatives. Knowing what we know today, wouldn't you say Dozier is every bit the valuable player to the Twins that Span was? Certainly closer in quality to Span than Blackie.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I think that if the Twins packaged him and Kohl Steward or Jose Berrios plus maybe another prospect, they can get Jordan Zimmermann.   If they extend Zimmermann, who would you rather have? 

 

Competitive teams close holes and are opportunistic.  And are not afraid to sell high.

while I am in the resign camp, I very much agree with this idea. Sell high is absolutely a good concept, and one that I think fits this situation much better than wait and see.

 

Wait and see goes one of two ways. 1 Dozier lives down to pessimistic standards and the team failed to capitalize on presumed trade value from two good seasons. 2 Dozier lives up to optimistic standards and costs more money to resign or go through arbitration.

 

Do the deuce or stand up, don't just sit on the throne and wait for something to happen.

[tobi0040]

I think it is the Seager deal that is crazy. He would probably make 20M over three years in arbitration.  So they then paid him 4-80 in free agency?  What is the point of doing this deal, is he going to be worth more than 20M? You do this deal to get a discount in free agency.

 

He is not Pujols or A Rod circa 2005.

[DocBauer]

Ignoring the trade Dozier idea because...he's damn good...we don't know for sure about options to replace him just yet...and I think he has room to definitely get better.

 

I want to look at Twins control and his somewhat late-blooming age and side on the "wait one more year" side of things. But I can't and won't. Because...he's damn good...we don't know for sure about options to replace him just yet...and I think he has room to definitely get better.

 

SD made some great points/comments earlier. Were it me, I'd put forth a 5 year offering right now. I'd consider 6 years, but I just like 5 better from the Twins "hook" perspective. And if I'm Dozier, I might like 1 less year as well, allowing for possible FA one year earlier down the road. Regardless...this is a deal that offers financial cost control for both parties, investment and dividend/security. But as previously mentioned, I would balance the years of the contract more by front-loading more. This accomplishes the goal of allowing greater financial flexibility for the Twins in a couple of years when they start to offer extensions and the such, but also makes Dozier that much more attractive to other teams should they decide to make a deal, not being on the hook for such a large deal at the end of the contract.

[jay]

I'm with Doc on this one. The "wait" answer doesn't come without consequences. If Dozier has another good/solid year like 2014, these numbers Seth has proposed won't even be anywhere close to enough.

 

The trend has been to lock players up earlier and earlier. Teams do that because they can get the best long-term deal BEFORE the player has fully proven himself. If Dozier is an All-Star again, there's little reason to buy out his arb years at that point. He'll get paid as a proven All-Star either way.

 

Sign him, sign him now. And front-load it as much as possible.

[TheLeviathan]

I'm with Doc on this one. The "wait" answer doesn't come without consequences. If Dozier has another good/solid year like 2014, these numbers Seth has proposed won't even be anywhere close to enough.

The trend has been to lock players up earlier and earlier. Teams do that because they can get the best long-term deal BEFORE the player has fully proven himself. If Dozier is an All-Star again, there's little reason to buy out his arb years at that point. He'll get paid as a proven All-Star either way.

Sign him, sign him now. And front-load it as much as possible.

Except there can be serious consequences to not waiting. Dozier's offensive production has been very streaky and you run the risk in paying him huge money now that he becomes the Twins version of Allen Craig or many other guys who got paid too soon.

 

There is just something about Dozier's game I don't trust Longterm.

[goulik]

Lock him up. I agree with the front loading of the deal. With that said... Front load it even more and maybe go 8 years

[old nurse]

I think that if the Twins packaged him and Kohl Steward or Jose Berrios plus maybe another prospect, they can get Jordan Zimmermann.   If they extend Zimmermann, who would you rather have? 

 

Competitive teams close holes and are opportunistic.  And are not afraid to sell high.

If they could extend Zimmerman you have a brilliant idea. I would say that is a huge if.

[old nurse]

Since I have been called demented on this board a time or two, help me out here. When has there ever been a front loaded contract outside of the Cardinals? The only reason to frontload a Dozier contract is to trade him long before the contract is up.

[Thrylos]

If they could extend Zimmerman you have a brilliant idea. I would say that is a huge if.

 

If they don't, they don't make the trade...  Similar to the Santana deal for the Mets.

[jorgenswest]

I know the rangers gave Kinsler an extension that declined as he went into his 30s. Those contracts are pretty rare. Maybe they shouldn't be.

[TheLeviathan]

I know the rangers gave Kinsler an extension that declined as he went into his 30s. Those contracts are pretty rare. Maybe they shouldn't be.

They're rare because the union heavily pressures against them. I've tried, largely in vain, to get people to stop suggesting these because they just don't happen with regularity for a reason.

 

Only in hockey and football is it accepted practice,in baseball and basketball it is taboo.

[GoGonzoJournal]

I wait. There's no reason to rush into anything. If he continues his decline of the second half and continues to be less than average defensively at second, the last thing we want is to pay him for five more years. I like him in the clubhouse and as a person, but that doesn't mean much on the field. If Rosario proved to be a better option at second, or Escobar, anyone for that matter, I'd make the move. He also has a ton of value given his team control through 2018 even without a long-term deal.

[GoGonzoJournal]

I think that if the Twins packaged him and Kohl Steward or Jose Berrios plus maybe another prospect, they can get Jordan Zimmermann.   If they extend Zimmermann, who would you rather have? 

 

Competitive teams close holes and are opportunistic.  And are not afraid to sell high.

This trade is insane. Zimmerman isn't worth an MLB-ready 2B, nearly MLB-ready starter with ace upside, and an A class prospect. Wouldn't move Berrios or Kohl for anyone. I'd rather have Berrios in two years than Zimmerman for six.