Trade rumor: Buehrle

[Mike Sixel]

I agree, TR has had no trouble admitting an error, and cutting a vet that was signed to a short term deal. It's one of the things i like about him.

[clone52]

I'm pretty sure Meyer will get an extended look too, when he finally does crack the big league roster.

 

All I'm saying, and I don't understand how anyone who's followed this team can debate this, is that if the Twins invest in a multi-million dollar pitcher, he's not going to be a part-time pitcher. The Twins will run him into the ground, then try and re-sign him, as they did with Pavano, Pelfrey, Capps, etc. I'm all for bringing in an established starting pitcher to mitigate our reliance on rookies like May and Meyer, I just prefer that it be someone ~10 years younger who is less likely to implode in a Pavano like fashion after the Twins inevitably double down on the guy.

 

Buehrle would be a different situation than Pavano or Pelfrey.  

 

When the Twins resigned Pavano, he was coming off of 2 very good seasons, he was signed for a reasonable price and there weren't high end minor league pitchers in the Twins system he was blocking.

 

When the Twins resigned Pelfrey last year, he was cheap and the minor league pitchers he could have blocked were Kris Johnson, Logan Darnell and Yohan Pino.  Not the cream of the crop.

 

This year, if they sign a free agent pitcher, it will block either May or Meyer.  I think May will be a starter and they'll put Meyer in the bullpen to start, but maybe the Twins will give up on May as a starter after 10 starts like some fans seem to want to.  

 

I like the idea of 1 year of Buehle.  If he gets old, they are only stuck with him for one year.  If he is great and the young guys aren't good, maybe they can resign him.  If he is great, but Meyer and May also show they are ready for the rotation, the Twins won't feel the need to resign him.

 

If you decide to sign a younger guy, I see bigger risks and bigger problems.  If you take Masterson, he's 6 years younger than Buehrle.  You probably sign him for 3 or 4 years at $10/year.  But, do you get the good Masterson from 2011 and 2013, or the bad Masterson from 2012 and 2014.  If you get the good guy for 3 or 4 years, great.  If you get the bad guy for 3 or 4 years, well crap.  You have him locking up a rotation spot for 3 or 4 years, blocking May, Meyer, Rogers, Berrios, Stewart.  Plus you are eating up $10M in salary each year.

 

Sure, Buehrle would eat up more salary in year 1, but no salary after that.

 

Honestly, I think their long-term starting pitcher try this year is just year 2 of Nolasco.  Don't double down on that mistake.

 

If they sign a free agent, who would you be hoping for?  Maybe I missed someone.  I've given up hope on Lester/Scherzer because I don't think the Twins will ever commit to the years/dollars they will get.  I would love to see them trade for Cole Hamels, though.  He's a little cheaper than those guys ($22M) would be an only has 4 more years guarenteed on his contract.

[Linus]

I did get my names mixed up in one spot, but I did post May's numbers from August and September.  Both months had five starts.  His numbers clearly improved.  His residual numbers were fantastic.  Unless he bombs in spring training, he should definitely get a rotation spot, unless the Twins shock everyone and sign Lester and Masterson, or 2 guys to take rotation spots.

 

May should definitely get a rotation spot over Meyer (unless something crazy happens in spring training).  Meyer only pitched 130 innings last year, so if he pitches decent in spring training, I believe he should be up with Minnesota, but should start the season in the bullpen.  Give him a little time there, then move him to the rotation.

Wonderful.  He went from bad to sub - par and you want to hand him a job next year.  If he is one of the five best in spring training next year, fine.  My guess is that there is 50-50 chance he never sticks in the big leagues and any good team is not going to be handing out starting jobs to guys with May's numbers, unless he proves better.

[clone52]

Wonderful.  He went from bad to sub - par and you want to hand him a job next year.  If he is one of the five best in spring training next year, fine.  My guess is that there is 50-50 chance he never sticks in the big leagues and any good team is not going to be handing out starting jobs to guys with May's numbers, unless he proves better.

 

Look, if May goes through Spring Training as a train wreck unable to throw strikes, then sure, don't put him in the rotation.  But if he pitches like he did in September, then in my opinion, it should take a monstrous effort by another guy to oust him.  If he strikes out 1 per inning and only walks 3 or 4 per nine innings, then in no way do I want Pelfrey starting over him.  I also don't want Milone starting over him, even if Milone has a huge spring training.  I'd rather give May a couple months to see if he can continue his improvement from September.

 

If Alex Meyer dominates spring training and figures out his control, then i could jump him ahead of May if May really struggles.

 

I wouldn't call May's September sub par, either.  If he kept those numbers up for an entire season, his K rate would be top 10 in all of baseball, his K/BB would be top 25.

[Thegrin]

Modern baseball is over enamored with strikeouts, in my opinion.  Innings pitched is most important. Being able to pitch (as opposed to strikeouts) is more important.

 

Nothing is more frustrating than having a pitcher who does not finish players off.  Letting batters foul off ball after ball, running up the pitch count rather than throwing a ball that the batter hits to a defender is better than trying to strike out a batter, and letting him foul off ball after ball.   Buehrle is good at that.

[tobi0040]

Modern baseball is over enamored with strikeouts, in my opinion.  Innings pitched is most important. Being able to pitch (as opposed to strikeouts) is more important.

 

Nothing is more frustrating than having a pitcher who does not finish players off.  Letting batters foul off ball after ball, running up the pitch count rather than throwing a ball that the batter hits to a defender is better than trying to strike out a batter, and letting him foul off ball after ball.   Buehrle is good at that.

 

Rick, is that you?

 

I apologize, I could not resist.

[TheLeviathan]

Wonderful.  He went from bad to sub - par and you want to hand him a job next year.  If he is one of the five best in spring training next year, fine.  My guess is that there is 50-50 chance he never sticks in the big leagues and any good team is not going to be handing out starting jobs to guys with May's numbers, unless he proves better.

 

You are putting an awful lot on a bunch of spring training starts and I could fill a thread with reasons not to do that.  May should go in with a leg up and ST stats should only influence anything with a massive helping of salt.

[DocBauer]

So the Twins were wrong in not bringing May up sooner than they did...although they probably would have if not for injury setback...then they did, and he showed talent but kinda sucked and got shelled. Not surprising, and most of us kind of expected it. But they stuck with him, gave him his shots, and what did he do? He improved and finished pretty strong.

 

So now the rebuilding Twins should NOT plan on a talented SP with talent and a strong finish to last season as being a strong candidate for next season? I guess I'm confused.

[Linus]

So the Twins were wrong in not bringing May up sooner than they did...although they probably would have if not for injury setback...then they did, and he showed talent but kinda sucked and got shelled. Not surprising, and most of us kind of expected it. But they stuck with him, gave him his shots, and what did he do? He improved and finished pretty strong.

 

So now the rebuilding Twins should NOT plan on a talented SP with talent and a strong finish to last season as being a strong candidate for next season? I guess I'm confused.

Ok, I'm going to try and be polite: he has shown nothing to deserve all the bouquets being thrown at him.  Counting on guys like May, Millone, Pelfrey, Pino, et all are how you end up with AAAA starters getting a bunch of starts.   Don't get me wrong: I hope the guy is lights out.  I'm just saying that the failure rate for a pitcher with his pedigree is approaching 50%,  and the Twins have a chance to win next year if they don't roll the dice on guys like this.  If he turns out great, there will be plenty of ways to get him into the rotation.

[TheLeviathan]

Counting on guys like May, Millone, Pelfrey, Pino, et 

 

One of these things is not like the others.

[The Wise One]

I wonder if a pick off counts as LOB or not.  He has 87 career picks offs, 3rd all time (Pettitte and Carlton).

Then it would be darn lucky he can pick people off or his lob % would be higher. If the person is picked off they would not be left on base when the inning ended

[ashbury]

One of these things is not like the others.

One was misspelt?

[SweetOne69]

One was misspelt?

More Like one is no longer with the club.

[nicksaviking]

Wonderful.  He went from bad to sub - par and you want to hand him a job next year.  If he is one of the five best in spring training next year, fine.  My guess is that there is 50-50 chance he never sticks in the big leagues and any good team is not going to be handing out starting jobs to guys with May's numbers, unless he proves better.

 

At some point you have to give the prospects enough leash to sink or swim on their own.  Yes, May should get a spot in the rotation out of spring training because we don't need to see anything else in AAA, he gets a spot on the MLB roster until he proves otherwise he can't cut it.  Non-prospects like Logan Darnell and Tommy Milone should not be blocking a guy who has a chance to be a rotation anchor.

[nicksaviking]

Modern baseball is over enamored with strikeouts, in my opinion.  Innings pitched is most important. Being able to pitch (as opposed to strikeouts) is more important.

 

Nothing is more frustrating than having a pitcher who does not finish players off.  Letting batters foul off ball after ball, running up the pitch count rather than throwing a ball that the batter hits to a defender is better than trying to strike out a batter, and letting him foul off ball after ball.   Buehrle is good at that.

 

Innings Pitched is not an ability, it is a result partially based on the quality of the pitcher.  It's like saying you like your pitcher to have a high Win total.

 

Being able to strike out batters is an ability that can lead to that result.  8 of the top 10 leaders in IP had a K/9 over 7.5.  All of the top 10 pitchers in WAR had a K/9 over 7.5, and 17 of the top 20.

 

Strikeouts don't guarantee success, but they are a strong predictor that the pitcher will be successful.

[Thegrin]

 Non-prospects like Logan Darnell and Tommy Milone should not be blocking a guy who has a chance to be a rotation anchor.

 

Milone"s results from 2012 & 2013 say that he is a proven major league left handed PITCHER.   That is a valuable asset to have on your pitching staff.  Even if he tanks in ST, he deserves top consideration for the starting rotation in 2015.

 

 http://minnesota.twins.mlb.com/team/player.jsp?player_id=543548#sectionType=career&statType=2&season=2014&gameType=%27R%27&level=%27ALL%27

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Milone"s results from 2012 & 2013 say that he is a proven major league left handed PITCHER.   That is a valuable asset to have on your pitching staff.  Even if he tanks in ST, he deserves top consideration for the starting rotation in 2015.

Milone's an interesting option, but this line of thinking sounds too much like the thinking around Worley entering 2013 (and to a lesser extent Diamond that same year).  Milone's had a bit longer track record, but it was in a very different environment, his upside seems low, and he's coming off a pretty poor finish to 2014 (which, even if due to injury, is cause for concern).

 

Now, the simple fact that Milone wouldn't be the opening day starter in 2015 like Worley/Diamond were considering in 2013 suggests we'd be able to weather his failure better than the 2013 club, but that's a pretty low threshold for comparison, and it doesn't mean it's really good risk to take.

 

I say, leave one spot for Milone/May/Meyer to open the season.  If Milone looks good, and the top 4 above him (Hughes, Nolasco, Gibson, and new acquisition) are healthy and ready to go, let May/Meyer open in the pen (or perhaps even one of them in AAA to keep them stretched out to start, if necessary).

[tobi0040]

I say, leave one spot for Milone/May/Meyer to open the season.  If Milone looks good, and the top 4 above him (Hughes, Nolasco, Gibson, and new acquisition) are healthy and ready to go, let May/Meyer open in the pen (or perhaps even one of them in AAA to keep them stretched out to start, if necessary).

 

Absolutely.   The new acqusition part is key and it can't be a typical rehab signing.  Or one year tryout/audition for another team like Masterson.

[Willihammer]

Jason Marquis?  Released outright after 7 starts.

 

The Pavano and Pelfrey "implosions" were both injury related, and they went to the DL relatively quickly (1-2 months).  Ramon Ortiz was dropped from the rotation after 10 starts and traded a couple months later.  Livan Hernandez, Rick Reed, and Kevin Correia lasted longer, but all were dealt in early August of their "bad" seasons.

 

The worst examples of this were Blackburn and Mays, but those guys were untradeable on multi-year deals.

OK point taken. There is an alternative possibility that the guy stinks so badly right away that the Twins don't double down and the team just stinks that year.

 

For the record, I'm not in favor of standing pat either.

[bird]

Right, but this team has a history of giving the iffy pitchers a shot over real prospects.  So Buehrle may simply be blocking Logan Darnell and Tommy Milone, but they in turn are blocking Alex Meyer.

Not sure what history you're looking at, nick. The problem, going back a half-dozen years or so, has been that there have been very few real prospects to challenge those iffy ones.

[jay]

I say, leave one spot for Milone/May/Meyer to open the season. If Milone looks good, and the top 4 above him (Hughes, Nolasco, Gibson, and new acquisition) are healthy and ready to go, let May/Meyer open in the pen (or perhaps even one of them in AAA to keep them stretched out to start, if necessary).

Nailed it.

[Major League Ready]

Keeping one spot open for 3 good SP prospects (who are all ready) to take on a 35 y/o SP on a one year deal is not a rebuilding strategy.  If that alone does not stop the Twins giving up the level of prospect Toronto will want in turn should because that also is not a rebuilding strategy.  There are also better alternatives to spend $19M.

 

You can't think one year at a time when the team is in a position that requires a long-term strategy/approach.

[jay]

I should clarify that I don't think Buehrle is the best fit to fill that "new acquisition". I'd much rather see someone who can matter going past next year... like a Masterson on a deal with options, a trade for a younger guy with at least 2 years remaining or another long-term FA like Ervin Santana.

 

If none of those work out, then a one-year guy who could be flipped at the deadline makes sense... but Buehrle might be making too much even at that point to bring back a decent prospect.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Keeping one spot open for 3 good SP prospects (who are all ready) to take on a 35 y/o SP on a one year deal is not a rebuilding strategy.  If that alone does not stop the Twins giving up the level of prospect Toronto will want in turn should because that also is not a rebuilding strategy.  There are also better alternatives to spend $19M.

 

You can't think one year at a time when the team is in a position that requires a long-term strategy/approach.

How well did this "rebuilding strategy" of little or no rotation depth contribute to the rebuild from 2012-2014?

 

The Twins themselves tried to add an additional veteran starter (Garza or Ervin Santana) on a multi-year deal late this past offseason.  Is it your position that much has changed since that point?  There was some progress in 2014, but there are still a whole lot of question marks, covering virtually every member or prospective member of our 2015 rotation.

 

Again, I'm not saying Buehrle is my first choice, but there aren't that many clearly better options available this offseason.  It's quite possible that even if we are willing to spend, we might not land anyone (or we may not especially like anyone either).  I'd prefer getting Buehrle in a salary dump deal rather than standing pat.

[Otto von Ballpark]

the level of prospect Toronto will want in turn

Here's a point we probably agree on -- I am not yet convinced Toronto will want to do a salary dump (accepting marginal prospect(s) in return) of Buehrle either.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I should clarify that I don't think Buehrle is the best fit to fill that "new acquisition". I'd much rather see someone who can matter going past next year... like a Masterson on a deal with options, a trade for a younger guy with at least 2 years remaining or another long-term FA like Ervin Santana.

 

If none of those work out, then a one-year guy who could be flipped at the deadline makes sense... but Buehrle might be making too much even at that point to bring back a decent prospect.

I'm with you, but even if we like Masterson's rebound chances, there could be a lot of teams competing for his services (same with Morrow).  A trade for a younger pitcher than Buehrle will also cost more in trade, and how much talent or potential can the Twins afford to give up at this point?  We still need to get a lot more talent to our MLB team.  And while it would be great to secure a guy like Ervin Santana if we like him long-term, it could be disastrous to force another Nolasco-type move if we're not really confident in him.

 

As to flipping Buehrle midseason, players capable of bringing back a decent prospect at the deadline generally aren't available on one-year deals before the season.

[tobi0040]

How well did this "rebuilding strategy" of little or no rotation depth contribute to the rebuild from 2012-2014?

 

The Twins themselves tried to add an additional veteran starter (Garza or Ervin Santana) on a multi-year deal late this past offseason.  Is it your position that much has changed since that point?  There was some progress in 2014, but there are still a whole lot of question marks, covering virtually every member or prospective member of our 2015 rotation.

 

Again, I'm not saying Buehrle is my first choice, but there aren't that many clearly better options available this offseason.  It's quite possible that even if we are willing to spend, we might not land anyone (or we may not especially like anyone either).  I'd prefer getting Buehrle in a salary dump deal rather than standing pat.

 

This kind of sums up my stance as well.  There are guys I would rather have than Mark B.  But I am not sure any others make sense for where we are.  Ervin is the only FA guy I can see that may be both talented enough and somewhat affordable on a 3-4 year deal.  But my gut says someone is going to give the guy a ton of money. 

 

A lot of the guys that may be available on the trade market are not a fit, because they will require a top prospect and then you have to also pay them. If we were going to do that we may as well pay someone like Shields or Lester and keep our prospects

[Brandon]

Here is a list of some of the pitchers available for trade this offseason.  The Twins really could use a starting pitcher to add to the rotation/ depth move. 

 

Cincinnatti has 3 or 4 due to 4 pitchers being Free Agents after next season.  Matt Latos, Mike Leake, Cuerto, and Simon.

 

The Mets are considering trading Gee and Niese

 

Toronto / Beurhle

 

Free agents that are realistic for us include:  Hammels, Brett Anderson, Edison Volquez, and Liriano, Masterson, McCarthy and Vogelsong and Colby Lewis, Chris Young, Aaron Harang, and Chris Campuano. 

 

After reviewing the list I can see the Twins signing one of Vogelsong, Lewis, Campuano or Chis Young or Brett Anderson.  On the trade front I can see the Twins trading for any of these pitchers.  I would prefer a trade as those pitchers have more talent.  The benefit of the signing the pitchers I just listed is they are not blocking anyone so we can let them go if May and Meyer and Berrios wants a call up.

 

Of note mlbtraderumors predicts the Twins will sign Hammels to a 3 year 30 million contract.  and Brett Anderson too.

[Major League Ready]

For some reason I cant quote.  How well this "rebuild strategy worked or if the Twins tried to add another starting is absolutely irrelevant to Buehrle's relative value to rebuilding.  It would not matter if it were Clayton Kershaw.  The Twins are a ways away from contending and any player on a one year contract has very little value to rebuilding.  Add to this that Buehle will absolutely for certain take innings away from prospects who are ready to be at the ML level and that detracts from rebuilding.  Giving away further prospects may or may not detract but Toronto is certainly going to want value so in all probability that further detracts from building.  The more I think about it the worse it looks. 

[Don't Feed the Greed Guy]

There are better ways to spend $19 million. But, there's no doubt we need lefty starters. If the Twins want to spend that sort of money, spend it on Lester.