Trade rumor: Buehrle

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I read this thread title and muttered "NOPE NOPE NOPE NOPE" to myself until I read this post.

 

Then I thought "hey, that's a pretty good idea... IF - and it's a mighty big IF - the Jays were willing to take on Nolasco's contract.

 

But ultimately, I don't see a point in that trade for either team.

i couldn't have said it better

[Benchwarmerjim]

Buehrle is the perfect pitcher..... if Ron Gardenhire and Rick Anderson was still around. His style of pitching is what they preached all the time.

[tobi0040]

It is hard to understand how the FO gets absolutely flogged for acquiring soft tossers and now a guy who throws 85 is getting supported here.  Actually, I like Buehrle and I really like the pace at which he pitches.  I am just confused about the call for power arms and then the support for Buehrle. 

 

Most years it seems you need 7-8 SPs so would May, Meyer, and/or Gibson be blocked?  Maybe and maybe not.  If Millone is on the staff, two of these three projects will be blocked unless two of Buehrle, Hughes, Nolasco, and Gibson are injured.  So, you could look at as the odds of 50% of our starting staff getting hurts.  However, if it is Buehrle that goes down, the deal is obviously a bust so we are really talking about 2 of Hughes, Nolasco, and Gibson need to go down in the context of the deal making sense.  So, what is the likelihood of two-thirds of those SPs being out for an extended period.   And, even then, one of the prospects will be blocked.    

 

One pitcher is just one pitcher.  We need to acquire a certain type of pitcher, or we have all righties so we need a lefty logic makes no sense to me.  The fact is, Mark B is a #2 starter and has been one his whole career.  That would help us win baseball games because he would be our best or second best pitcher.

[jorgenswest]

Buehrle doesn't strike out guys. Needs a good defense. He would be great with the Royals or Giants. He would have a career high ERA and BABIP with the Twins.

[tobi0040]

Buehrle doesn't strike out guys. Needs a good defense. He would be great with the Royals or Giants. He would have a career high ERA and BABIP with the Twins.

His era has been incredibly consistent over 3000 innings and a time span that dates back to the y2k bug. I have a hard time believing his defenses have been that good and consistent and the reason for his success

[DJL44]

Milone for Buehrle in a salary dump challenge trade of lefties with poor velocity

[Shane Wahl]

No, no, no, no. Can you imagine a serious decline in Buehrle coupled with something similar from Nolasco 2015 as Nolasco 2014? They would then have a ridiculous expensive mess.

[tobi0040]

I think we are mixing up aaaa starters with low velocity with a career 3.81 era, a career 127 era plus, who may win 250 or so games

[Rosterman]

I'd include a package that contains Nolasco. And give us Adam Lind while you are it. Both for one year. If nothing else, trade them for prospects. But if we could dump, say, Molasco, Parmeleeeeeeeeee, throw in Swarzak if they eat some salary to boot, and another piece of a prospect for Mark B, Adam Lind and a blocked prospect of their own.

[jay]

The Twins have room to add an SP. I'd much prefer trading for a younger pitcher or even signing a younger FA like E Santana. Buehrle would likely be the only move we'd see. I'd rather use that bullet elsewhere.

 

No way at all the Jays want Nolasco in a deal... they'd be trading off Buerhle to go use that money elsewhere, not acquire another SP with significant money and years remaining.

[howeda7]

If they can get him for a minor prospect, do it. Especially if the Jays will pick up some $$. I'm not worried about blocking Meyer or May. They'll get their chance. Pelfrey can be released. Milone can in the BP. Meyer and May compete for #5. The other is 1st man up in Rochester.

[Brock Beauchamp]

His era has been incredibly consistent over 3000 innings and a time span that dates back to the y2k bug. I have a hard time believing his defenses have been that good and consistent and the reason for his success

He's also going into his age 36 season. There's a chance Buerhle has another Buerhle season in 2015.

 

There's also a decent chance he implodes spectacularly.

[Major League Ready]

Three things come to mind after reading this thread.

 

1. All of the debate to this point seems to assume Buehrle will continue to pitch to his career numbers. 

Maybe he will but at age 35 that would be defying the odds. 

 

2. If those career numbers hold, we are talking less than 2 WAR given Buehrle's increased WAR is a product of pitching more games.  For $19M, we can find more productivity and we don't have to give up anything to do it.

 

3.  The presence of a $19M assures less innings for one of May, Meyer or Milone.  There is a lot of complaining here about the Twins refusal to acknowledge the need to rebuild.  Taking away this opportunity to play our top prospects and giving up prospects in trade for a 1 year deal on a 35 y/o player is not a rebuilding tactic.

 

Instead of spending and additional $20M for a win or two, offer Tomas $30M for 2 years with an option for 5 more years at $10M-11M/yr.  At least that gamble has the opportunity to be part of the future.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Instead of spending and additional $20M for a win or two, offer Tomas $30M for 2 years with an option for 5 more years at $10M-11M/yr.  At least that gamble has the opportunity to be part of the future.

A much wiser investment, IMO.

[tobi0040]

The hypothetical Tomas contract would probably be a wise investment for the twins. It limits our downside risk and allows us to have great production out an additional five years at below market rates if he pans out. Unfortunately that is why he would never sign it.

[Mike Sixel]

I'd rather have Tomas also......but I don't expect either to actually happen. Though, as I've said before, the market inefficiency of Cubans being under valued is likely gone at this point.......

[Willihammer]

Yawn.

[Otto von Ballpark]

No, no, no, no. Can you imagine a serious decline in Buehrle coupled with something similar from Nolasco 2015 as Nolasco 2014? They would then have a ridiculous expensive mess.

Even in that absolute worst-case scenario, Buehrle's portion of that "ridiculous expensive mess" would be completely off the books at the end of the 2015 season.  There's basically no such thing as a one-season expensive mess in MLB.  And if Nolasco might be a moderately expensive longer-term mess, that's a wholly separate problem.

[tobi0040]

Even in that absolute worst-case scenario, Buehrle's portion of that "ridiculous expensive mess" would be completely off the books at the end of the 2015 season.  There's basically no such thing as a one-season expensive mess in MLB.  And if Nolasco might be a moderately expensive longer-term mess, that's a wholly separate problem.

 

Agreed.   Seems to me the dis-taste for soft tossers is throwing the baby out with the bath water. The problem is the soft tossers we have had have not been any good.  Mark B. is good.

 

Nolasco an Pino put up about the same amount of innings last year as Mark.  200 IP at 3.39 versus an average of about 5.30.  That is 43 fewer runs allowed.  That would have brought us from -62 runs to -19 runs. 

 

My fear is that we add another AAAA starter or nobody, and have no depth or talent upgrade. Then Pelfrey and Pino types get a signficant amount of innings.  If we add Ervin that would be a better option, but Mark. B. seems more realistic given it is 1 year.

[Otto von Ballpark]

He's also going into his age 36 season. There's a chance Buerhle has another Buerhle season in 2015.

 

There's also a decent chance he implodes spectacularly.

"Decent chance he implodes spectacularly"?  I know he's not young, but this seems pretty hyperbolic for perhaps the most consistent and durable pitcher of the last 15 years coming off a season of basically posting his career average numbers.

[tobi0040]

"Decent chance he implodes spectacularly"?  I know he's not young, but this seems pretty hyperbolic for perhaps the most consistent and durable pitcher of the last 15 years coming off a season of basically posting his career average numbers.

 

Yeah, we have a different definition of decent.  Also, he has had several years with a 3.40 to 3.90 ERA and a k rate in the 4's or mid 4's.  Last year he was at 5.3 so regression there does not equal an implosion.

[jay]

My fear is that we add another AAAA starter or nobody, and have no depth or talent upgrade. Then Pelfrey and Pino types get a signficant amount of innings.  If we add Ervin that would be a better option, but Mark. B. seems more realistic given it is 1 year.

 

Are we in favor of committing to the rebuild or going after veterans?  I'm seeing a lot of both and they don't seem to align.

[Otto von Ballpark]

1. All of the debate to this point seems to assume Buehrle will continue to pitch to his career numbers.

Nope.  His career average is 117 ERA+ and 217 IP.  He could be notably worse than that and still provide positive value to the 2015 Twins.  (By comparison, Nolasco's career averages entering last season were 94 ERA+ and 192 IP.)

 

 

 

2. If those career numbers hold, we are talking less than 2 WAR given Buehrle's increased WAR is a product of pitching more games.  For $19M, we can find more productivity and we don't have to give up anything to do it.

Less than 2 WAR?  The last 4-5 seasons he's posted virtually identical GS/IP numbers every year, and he's averaged 3.4 WAR in that span according to B-Ref.  Only once has he been below that average too, his career low 2.1 WAR in 2013.

 

Assuming he was available for a marginal prospect (like Pavano/Rauch/Cabrera in 2009), for no more than $19 million on a one-year commitment this offseason, you're not going to find much better than Buehrle. (Actually I kinda doubt that Buehrle would be available for a marginal prospect this offseason, but there should be no question he would be a positive addition to the Twins if that were the case.)

[Otto von Ballpark]

3.  The presence of a $19M assures less innings for one of May, Meyer or Milone.  There is a lot of complaining here about the Twins refusal to acknowledge the need to rebuild.  Taking away this opportunity to play our top prospects and giving up prospects in trade for a 1 year deal on a 35 y/o player is not a rebuilding tactic.

This assumes that both Nolasco and Milone rebound, Hughes doesn't regress, and nobody gets hurt.  I'll take the "under" on that scenario, and even if it did happen and Meyer and May were both healthy and ready, there would be nothing stopping the Twins from dealing from an apparent position of strength (or breaking in Meyer/May in the pen, particularly if the team is a surprise contender or waits to deal an arm until the deadline).

 

 

And if the Twins stick by poor performing veterans (including potentially Buehrle) while keeping May and Meyer on the sidelines, that's a problem with the Twins, NOT with the presence of Buehrle.

 

Remember, we had the WORST starting staff in the league by ERA and IP in 2014 -- the idea that there somehow isn't room for one more pitcher, with an above average track record, on a one-year commitment is crazy talk.

 

 

 

Instead of spending and additional $20M for a win or two, offer Tomas $30M for 2 years with an option for 5 more years at $10M-11M/yr.  At least that gamble has the opportunity to be part of the future.

I might agree with this, although I know nothing of Tomas, I am not sure Tomas would take that deal (has there been a similarly structured international deal?), and I am almost certain the Twins can handle both.

 

 

Put another way, if the Twins already had Buehrle under contract for 2015 at $19 million (and minus a few marginal prospects, to make the scenarios fully equivalent), that shouldn't preclude a significant offer to Tomas if they like him.  (And if it does preclude such an offer, that's another problem with the Twins and not with the presence of Buehrle.)

[tobi0040]

 

Remember, we had the WORST starting staff in the league by ERA and IP in 2014 -- the idea that there somehow isn't room for one more pitcher, with an above average track record, on a one-year commitment is crazy talk.

 

I am equally baffled.  The hope strategy, hoping everyone is healthy, effective, young guys will be  up on April first, and they come up and light it up and are not sent down is a flawed strategy in my opinion.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Are we in favor of committing to the rebuild or going after veterans?  I'm seeing a lot of both and they don't seem to align.

Were we committed to the rebuild last winter, when we signed Nolasco and Pelfrey and still offered deals to Garza and Santana?

 

I don't think the circumstances have changed all that much since then.  We're still trying to get this staff (and this club) back to respectability, and given where we are coming from, I think it is going to take a mix of prospects and veterans to do that in any kind of timely fashion.

[tobi0040]

Were we committed to the rebuild last winter, when we signed Nolasco and Pelfrey and still offered deals to Garza and Santana?

 

I don't think the circumstances have changed all that much since then.  We're still trying to get this staff (and this club) back to respectability, and given where we are coming from, I think it is going to take a mix of prospects and veterans to do that in any kind of timely fashion.

 

This team has room for one veteran.  I see five guys right now in the mix.  Meyer, May, Gibson, Hughes, and Nolasco. Milone is nice to have and if he turns out great.  But he is coming off 4.15 and 4.19 years, was terrible here and lost his job last year.    Nolasco and May did not pitch well enough last year to just pencil them in as fixtures.  We have no reason to believe Meyer will start the year with the team or that our internal goal is to wait until June with him and delay service time.    So adding one guy that is arguably better than the rest of the guys (by career ERA that is the case), then having a healthy competition....that is fine with me.

[Linus]

Were we committed to the rebuild last winter, when we signed Nolasco and Pelfrey and still offered deals to Garza and Santana?

 

I don't think the circumstances have changed all that much since then.  We're still trying to get this staff (and this club) back to respectability, and given where we are coming from, I think it is going to take a mix of prospects and veterans to do that in any kind of timely fashion.

This.  We were 6th in runs scored and had solid infield defense.  We don't have to be rebuilding anymore - we just need to add a pitcher in the 1-3 slot and an outfielder who can catch the ball and provide adequate offense.

 

I think people are assuming a lot to think that somehow May is a lock next year or any year.  There was nothing in his performance that woud indicate that; same with Milone, especially Darnell.  My bet is that Meyer is the one that makes the rotation and we setting aside Milone, May and Pelfrey for spot duty.  Not only do I not have a problem with this, I endorse this.

[High heat]

I'd like to see buehrle or masterson or Lester. The other guy as fa or avalaible don't tickle my fancy. Lester is a pipe dream and the only way I see us getting masterson is to risk it and give him likely more then he is worth hoping he is the guy he was in 2013.

[tobi0040]

This.  We were 6th in runs scored and had solid infield defense.  We don't have to be rebuilding anymore - we just need to add a pitcher in the 1-3 slot and an outfielder who can catch the ball and provide adequate offense.

 

I think people are assuming a lot to think that somehow May is a lock next year or any year.  There was nothing in his performance that woud indicate that; same with Milone, especially Darnell.  My bet is that Meyer is the one that makes the rotation and we setting aside Milone, May and Pelfrey for spot duty.  Not only do I not have a problem with this, I endorse this.

 

Assumptions:

 

-Nolasco reverts to his career 4.30 or whatever it was prior to this year

 

-Mark B. puts up a 3.60 ERA

 

-both average 190 IP a year

 

-That replaces 5.00 ERA from last year

 

That is an improvement of 44.3 runs.  2/3 of our run deficit from last year.   Add in one of May/Meyer doing well.  Anything from Sano, improvement from Mauer, etc.  Improved OF defense, etc.