Revisiting the Wil Myers trade

[gunnarthor]

At the time of the Myers trade, Dayton Moore was pretty much vilified every where.   Royals traded 4 players - Wil Myers and Jake Odorizzi being the best two.  Myers was a top 5 prospect, Odorizzi was and is a serviceable backend starter.  Royals got Shields and Wade Davis.  Keith Law said that Moore was trying to save his job and the strong implication being that he was putting his needs above the team. 

 

Now, a year later, James Shields is starting KC's first playoff game since the 80s.  Wade Davis is arguably the best bullpen arm in the majors.  Shields and Davis combined for over 7 WAR this year.  Odorizzi has been a good back end starter for the Rays but Myers took a huge step back - worth negative WAR and had his manager telling the press that Myers needed to relax, leave at bats from bothering him in the field and play smarter.  The pro Royals argument at the time of the trade was that Myers was over rated, that he struck out too much to be the hitter that was expected and his defense was a secondary concern.  

 

Obviously, the Rays still have several more years of control over Myers.  But he will be 24 next season.

[ashbury]

Myers had a bad year.  I took a look and, except for his age-20 jump to AA in 2011 that went merely "OK", it's his first.  Lots of good players have them, for reasons either not explained to the public or not understood even by the player.  It will be a few years longer before we can get any reading on this trade.  The arguments on either side aren't very different than two years ago.

[drjim]

I'm not sure Moore was vilified everywhere, it was actually pretty split if I remember correctly, on this board as much as everywhere.

 

I liked the trade for the Royals at the time and still do. Unless they turn into perennial all stars, giving up players on the corners just won't burn a franchise that badly, and they knew Myers as well as anyone.

 

I did think the secondary parts of the trade favored the Rays, but the emergence of Davis as such a bullpen weapon certainly changed that equation.

[kab21]

At best supporters didn't think it was awful for the Royals but very few thought it was a good trade for them.  I didn't really hate it but I thought it was an overpay and still do.

 

One thing that gets overlooked is that Myers was a top prospect but he didn't really have elite upside.  He was/is destined to be more of a Cuddyer type of player.  Good bat with adequate (or worse) defense in RF.  That is certainly valuable but it's not impossible to find especially since the Royals already had Gordon and Butler set in 2 of the 3 positions that Myers could have played.  They traded from depth (offense) for what they really needed.  A starter to return them to relevancy sooner than later.  I think there is a benefit of winning 80+ games for young players even if they aren't in the playoffs.

[TheLeviathan]

The problem with Myers as I see it is that his bat plays well in CF...but he stinks at it defensively.  He's fine in the corners, but his bat is far from elite.  

 

So he doesn't fit well anywhere without taking a serious knock in value.

[Dman]

Not knowing a ton about Myers I felt like the royals got the short end of the stick on that trade especially since they were likely only going to get two years of shields. I liked the trade because they needed to do something as they had been bad for so long. I did not expect the trade to be enough to get them to the playoffs so I was wrong about that. I knew it would help but figured that in the end it would fail and they would lose a good player as well.

 

 

Obviously things look different now. It looks like they got exactly what they needed to get over the hump and make the playoffs. Big gamble but it payed off. They are losers no more.

[Winston Smith]

The Royals should end up with a draft pick when Shields leaves in free agency right?

[LaBombo]

Myers had a bad year.  I took a look and, except for his age-20 jump to AA in 2011 that went merely "OK", it's his first.  Lots of good players have them, for reasons either not explained to the public or not understood even by the player.  It will be a few years longer before we can get any reading on this trade.  The arguments on either side aren't very different than two years ago.

Well, one side's argument changed at least somewhat.  Those who thought it was a bad trade for the Royals didn't all feel it was entirely because they gave up too much.  It was that they thought that the Royals would continue to be crap, and that acquiring Shields would accomplish nothing but make them "crap with a star" (love that movie).

 

Or perhaps less dramatically, make them measurably better but still a team that would come up short against an improved Indians team and especially against a Tigers team anchored by a perennial triple crown threat and a rotation that appeared to be stronger than a theoretical AL Central All Star rotation made of the other 4 teams' best.  That was my impression, despite the fact that my valuation of Shields as a legitimate #1 for a contender exceeded that of most of the other critics of the trade.

 

But now the Royals are playing postseason baseball with James Shields on the mound, and it didn't take any sort of bizarre series of fluke events or a bunch of positive outlier seasons.  They really were improved enough by the trade to be a contender.  That's a significantly greater outcome than many non-fans of the trade foresaw, including me.

 

Completely agree it's too early to evaluate the balance sheet, but a tip of the cap to the Royals for making a risky, unpopular, oft-criticized trade that helped overcome nearly 30 years of futility.

[drjim]

The Royals should end up with a draft pick when Shields leaves in free agency right?

 

Yes. Added value to the trade. And if the Royals collapsed this year they also could have traded him at the deadline and recouped some of the value they gave up initially.

 

This isn't mentioned nearly enough in my opinion.

[biggentleben]

Yes. Added value to the trade. And if the Royals collapsed this year they also could have traded him at the deadline and recouped some of the value they gave up initially.

 

This isn't mentioned nearly enough in my opinion.

 

True, but they also are in a spot with revenues that they could make a run at him in free agency as well.

[notoriousgod71]

Unfortunately for the Royals they have Ned Yost as their manager who takes our their supposed ace after a broken bat single and a walk to bring in a lesser pitcher and not one of his supposed three headed bullpen monster.

 

There was no reason for anyone other than Shields, Herrera, Davis, or Holland to pitch in this game unless Shields got completely lit up in the first five innings.

[TheLeviathan]

It was definitely one of those moments when a manager's stupidity single-handedly sinks his team.

[Willihammer]

Unfortunately for the Royals they have Ned Yost as their manager who takes our their supposed ace after a broken bat single and a walk to bring in a lesser pitcher and not one of his supposed three headed bullpen monster.

 

There was no reason for anyone other than Shields, Herrera, Davis, or Holland to pitch in this game unless Shields got completely lit up in the first five innings.

I couldn't disagree more. The Royals were holding a 1 run lead in a do or die game, the hook should be very quick. I would take Ventura's 98 mph gas out of the bullpen any day as a bridge to Herrera-Davis-Holland. It was a good call and a lousy outcome is all, IMO. That's a 1-game playoff for ya.

[ashbury]

I'll also note (now that this is a Game Thread ) that when Yost went to the mound, he talked to Shields, listened to what his pitcher had to say, then motioned to the bullpen.  It's possible that Shields told him he was gassed.  In the sixth inning that seems surprising, but there's little doubt in my mind that Yost went out there to listen.

 

Choice of reliever remains debatable, but leaving in the starter might not be.

[USAFChief]

Bringing a starter in, with shaky control to begin with, into that situation was idiotic.

[Willihammer]

Think this kid will steal home if it gets to 2 outs?

[nicksaviking]

Um, did josh willingham just take a pitch for a single the other way?

[notoriousgod71]

AS much as I hated pulling Shields Iove all the running KC is doing.. Stealing third just got them a run!

[notoriousgod71]

KC with their 2014 first rounder pitching in a play-in game. He'd be five years away with the Twins.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Somebody go get RB

[ashbury]

Bringing a starter in, with shaky control to begin with, into that situation was idiotic.

 

Somebody go get RB

Wait, you're saying they brought in Deduno with runners on?

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Royals with 6 SB tonight? They obviously knew something and had a plan.. I soften my criticism of Yost somewhat.

[notoriousgod71]

Royals with 6 SB tonight? They obviously knew something and had a plan.. I soften my criticism of Yost somewhat.

 

And I'm sure your criticism is heightened by the plethora of sac bunts.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

And I'm sure your criticism is heightened by the plethora of sac bunts.

yeah, in your face, Moneyball..

[kab21]

KC with their 2014 first rounder pitching in a play-in game. He'd be five years away with the Twins.

This stopped being funny 4-5 years ago.  It stopped being accurate 2 years ago.

[USAFChief]

Pretty awesome baseball game.

[ashbury]

Pretty awesome baseball game.

I didn't come away from it thinking whichever team won was a real threat to go all the way, but the game was a real good one, with plenty to pick apart and plenty of individual heroics.

[USAFChief]

"The Wil Myers Trade."

 

Greatest baseball trade ever, or greatest trade in the history of sports?

 

Discuss.

[goliath]

Great game!

A's did their own version of the Wil Myers trade with Russell for Samardzija.  One team had to go home. 

Bill Beane was right, the playoffs are a crap shoot.

In the long run I think the A's trade(s) will hurt them more.  They lose Russell, Cespedes and Lester will leave.  

[Brock Beauchamp]

Man, I thought this might have been Beane's year but the team fell apart.

 

The baseball gods hate that dude.

 

Good for the Royals, though. I thought they were sunk.