So....May...what now?

[DocBauer]

I gotta ask, what do you think now?

 

For months there has been debate about the Twins rotation and future rotation. There has been opinion and throw-down worthy smack towards the Twins organization for not promoting May and Meyer by such and such a time.

 

May, one of my personal choices for minor leaguer to watch for this season, hit AAA for the first time. And he arguably had the best season of his milb career. Forget the timing, he finally got his shot. And his shot was, initially, an old fashioned flintlock that made a lot of noise with smoke and fire, but proved mostly inaccurate. There were some SO's, and a few OK innings, but nothing to get excited about. Suddenly, the calls for he and Meyer in the rotation dried up. A little reality hitting some upside the head? And the call for the Twins to make a big move in FA this next offseason...or as some suggested a "good as Hughes if not better" signing...suddenly grew loud.

 

A reminder, and a rewind, didn't we go through this almost exact thing with Gibson last season? And what happened? Yeah, Gibson didn't fare all that well. But he did get ML innings, he gained experience, and he learned. And what happened as an end result? He's had a pretty nice and successful "rookie" season and offers a lot of potential upside with just a little more consistency. Something that will probably show through next season based on talent and natural progression.

 

Well guess what? May struggled, then put together a couple OK starts, getting one win. Then he went out and pitched 6 innings in a quality start with 10 SO's and NO walks. No guarantees of course, but does this make you feel a little better projecting the rotation for next season?

[Otwins]

I for one was very impressed. His fastball seemed to move away from left handers. He also located his pitches better than I have ever seen him.  I hate to use the "c" word but that is his next hurdle. Can he duplicate that performance? Stayed tuned

[jokin]

I gotta ask, what do you think now?

 

For months there has been debate about the Twins rotation and future rotation. There has been opinion and throw-down worthy smack towards the Twins organization for not promoting May and Meyer by such and such a time.

 

May, one of my personal choices for minor leaguer to watch for this season, hit AAA for the first time. And he arguably had the best season of his milb career. Forget the timing, he finally got his shot. And his shot was, initially, an old fashioned flintlock that made a lot of noise with smoke and fire, but proved mostly inaccurate. There were some SO's, and a few OK innings, but nothing to get excited about. Suddenly, the calls for he and Meyer in the rotation dried up. A little reality hitting some upside the head? And the call for the Twins to make a big move in FA this next offseason...or as some suggested a "good as Hughes if not better" signing...suddenly grew loud.

 

A reminder, and a rewind, didn't we go through this almost exact thing with Gibson last season? And what happened? Yeah, Gibson didn't fare all that well. But he did get ML innings, he gained experience, and he learned. And what happened as an end result? He's had a pretty nice and successful "rookie" season and offers a lot of potential upside with just a little more consistency. Something that will probably show through next season based on talent and natural progression.

 

Well guess what? May struggled, then put together a couple OK starts, getting one win. Then he went out and pitched 6 innings in a quality start with 10 SO's and NO walks. No guarantees of course, but does this make you feel a little better projecting the rotation for next season?

 

May still should have been called up earlier, likely would have had similar results, garnered more valuable experience, and provided much more information from which to base an opinion on his status for 2015.

[Kwak]

This the proverbial "trial run".  My eyes see his FB as rather flat, but it fast.  My needs to throw more curves in the K zone, work both sides, and stay confident.  There will be plenty of set backs next year how well he handles them will determine his success.

[Twins Twerp]

May still should have been called up earlier, likely would have had similar results, garnered more valuable experience, and provided much more information from which to base an opinion on his status for 2015.

Is this a fact or opinion?

[jokin]

Is this a fact or opinion?

I don't know,  let me put it back on you.

 

1) Do you think that if May had been called up before his calf injury in June, that his results would have been any different than they have been in 7 MLB appearances since his call-up in August?  

 

2) Do you think that we, and the Twins, would have more information from 20 starts from May?  Or the 9 starts he's going to end up throwing?

 

3) Would May have benefited more from 100 major league innings pitched.... or the 45-50 he's going to end up throwing?

[glunn]

Moderator note -- this is all ultimately a matter of opinion, and if the debate gets personal then infractions will be assessed.

[gunnarthor]

I think May is doing more or less as expected.  I figured he'd get hit around a bit and have some control issues early - although I didn't guess it would be that bad.  But the Twins keep letting him go back out and he's certainly adjusting.  (It also didn't help that his first starts were against playoff teams fighting for position).  He definitely has some swing and miss stuff when he's on.

 

I always thought a good comp for him was Aaron Harang.  Both came up in the age 24 seasons and had some issue with walks but flashed potential.  Both have some strike out ability but both are probably more innings eaters than front line guys - but can be very valuable.  

[Mike Frasier Law]

I mentioned before that his velocity seemed a lot lower than I imagined when he first came up. Sure enough, his velocity and strikeouts have increased since being called up:

 

August:       

7.11 k/9      6.63 bb/9      4.1 innings per start 

fastball velocity 91.5 slider 81.3 change 82.9

 

September:

10.69 k/9     2.81 bb/9     5.1 innings per start 

fastball velocity 92.3 slider 82.6 change 83.7

 

Maybe it's correlation. Maybe it's confidence. But it's working.

[Linus]

Doesn't change a thing for me - I still want a quality FA starter for next year.  I'm done waiting around for guys to "hopefully" develop - especially considering the org is still weak in starting pitching at the highest levels.  If May continues this progression next spring they can easily find a spot for him.  I'm looking forward to the problem of having 6 quality starters for 5 spots (as in I'll believe it when I see it).

[nicksaviking]

Well if May has the kind of improvement that Gibson did in year two, he's going to be pretty good.  If Gibson was better at keeping the ball out of play he'd a really nice 2/3 pitcher.  May looks to have that ability, even at the MLB level.

 

I hope the club learns from this and lets the next legit pitching prospect try to work out his growing pains at the MLB level early in the year with the hopes that he figures it out by the end of the year.  This team doesn't seem able to develop the kind of arms that make an immediate impact.

 

I'm also curious what goes on psychologically when prospects get called up to the MLB level when the team is already out of contention.  One might assume that if the team isn't playing for anything, the player would be that much more concerned with his own accomplishments.  I'd think bringing these guys up when the games appear to be meaningful would help instill a team-first attitude.  Everyone always seems more invested when the team is relevant.  Not that any of these guys are selfish, but something the front office could consider.

[Linus]

Well if May has the kind of improvement that Gibson did in year two, he's going to be pretty good.  If Gibson was better at keeping the ball out of play he'd a really nice 2/3 pitcher.  May looks to have that ability, even at the MLB level.

 

I hope the club learns from this and lets the next legit pitching prospect try to work out his growing pains at the MLB level early in the year with the hopes that he figures it out by the end of the year.  This team doesn't seem able to develop the kind of arms that make an immediate impact.

 

I'm also curious what goes on psychologically when prospects get called up to the MLB level when the team is already out of contention.  One might assume that if the team isn't playing for anything, the player would be that much more concerned with his own accomplishments.  I'd think bringing these guys up when the games appear to be meaningful would help instill a team-first attitude.  Everyone always seems more invested when the team is relevant.  Not that any of these guys are selfish, but something the front office could consider.

My guess is that it would only put  more pressure on them when they are already feeling the weight of the world on their shoulders, trying desperately to make it in the bigs.  It seems pretty clear to me that May's initial struggles were from nerves which would only be worse if they games actually meant something.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I'm done waiting around for guys to "hopefully" develop - especially considering the org is still weak in starting pitching at the highest levels.

I have a hard time calling this organization weak in pitching at the higher levels when they have Berrios and Meyer in AA and AAA. They also have another interesting arm in Rogers. I'm not sold on him by any means but he's worth keeping an eye on next season.

[Linus]

I have a hard time calling this organization weak in pitching at the higher levels when they have Berrios and Meyer in AA and AAA. They also have another interesting arm in Rogers. I'm not sold on him by any means but he's worth keeping an eye on next season.

When I referred to "higher levels" I was including the big league club.  I have no difficulty whatsoever calling starting pitching at the higher levels weak.  I am excited about Meyer and Berrios just like everyone else.  I will be really excited when they are getting big league hitters out - until then, more pitching please.

[Brock Beauchamp]

When I referred to "higher levels" I was including the big league club.  I have no difficulty whatsoever calling starting pitching at the higher levels weak.  I am excited about Meyer and Berrios just like everyone else.  I will be really excited when they are getting big league hitters out - until then, more pitching please.

But they can't get big league hitters out if you don't give them a chance to do it.

 

Meyer should start next season in Minnesota, provided he's healthy. That means you have Gibson (good enough to get another year), Hughes (the no-brainer of the bunch), Nolasco (no way he's getting moved or demoted yet), May (given his recent run he should get strong consideration next season), and Meyer in the rotation.

 

And then you have guys like Johnson, Pelfrey, and Milone as sixth starters. Not to mention that Berrios is going to be in the mix at some point if he keeps it up.

 

The Twins are finally starting to graduate quality pitching prospects. Now is not the time to push them out of the way with veteran mediocrity. Focus on the outfield defense if you want to help the pitching staff get better.

[Linus]

But they can't get big league hitters out if you don't give them a chance to do it.

 

Meyer should start next season in Minnesota, provided he's healthy. That means you have Gibson (good enough to get another year), Hughes (the no-brainer of the bunch), Nolasco (no way he's getting moved or demoted yet), May (given his recent run he should get strong consideration next season), and Meyer in the rotation.

 

And then you have guys like Johnson, Pelfrey, and Milone as sixth starters. Not to mention that Berrios is going to be in the mix at some point if he keeps it up.

 

The Twins are finally starting to graduate quality pitching prospects. Now is not the time to push them out of the way with veteran mediocrity. Focus on the outfield defense if you want to help the pitching staff get better.

Interesting take but I am not talking about veteran mediocrity - I'm talking about somebody who will leapfrog the whole group.  I am not at all interested in Johnson, Pelfrey and Milone.  That means for next year we are counting on Meyer and May being effective and everyone else being healthy.  The odds of both those things happening are not particularly high, which is how you end up having Kris Johnson getting 10 starts.  Starting pitching is the best trade currency - if by some chance we end up with a surplus, then we can deal it.

[laloesch]

But they can't get big league hitters out if you don't give them a chance to do it.

 

Meyer should start next season in Minnesota, provided he's healthy. That means you have Gibson (good enough to get another year), Hughes (the no-brainer of the bunch), Nolasco (no way he's getting moved or demoted yet), May (given his recent run he should get strong consideration next season), and Meyer in the rotation.

 

And then you have guys like Johnson, Pelfrey, and Milone as sixth starters. Not to mention that Berrios is going to be in the mix at some point if he keeps it up.

 

The Twins are finally starting to graduate quality pitching prospects. Now is not the time to push them out of the way with veteran mediocrity. Focus on the outfield defense if you want to help the pitching staff get better.

 

I disagree with Meyer starting in Minnesota next season if he's healthy.  Alex is a flamethrower no doubt and everyone here wants him to succeed, but you have to recognize that his off speed stuff is just not there yet.  At this point he's really only a fastball pitcher and that's just not going to cut it at the major league level.  I would be more inclined to have him work out of the bullpen if he does come north with the team.   

 

Hughes, Nolasco and Gibson are no brainers for the rotation.  If May continues to improve from last nights outing I don't see how he doesn't make the rotation out of spring training next season.    

 

The #5 spot though is anyone's guess.  I have a sneaking suspicion that the FO has not given up yet on Mike Pelfrey which will be interesting.  Milone, Johnson, Gil Martin, Darnell, Pino and Meyer will also be options as well.  There's also the possibility that Berrios could be available next Sept. which would be great.    

[Brock Beauchamp]

Interesting take but I am not talking about veteran mediocrity - I'm talking about somebody who will leapfrog the whole group.  I am not at all interested in Johnson, Pelfrey and Milone.  That means for next year we are counting on Meyer and May being effective and everyone else being healthy.  The odds of both those things happening are not particularly high, which is how you end up having Kris Johnson getting 10 starts.  Starting pitching is the best trade currency - if by some chance we end up with a surplus, then we can deal it.

I'm not interested in seeing Johnson start ten games in 2015, either... But to contend, you're going to need young arms at the minimum. The Twins can continue to patchwork a rotation together but it's likely that their rotation won't be truly competitive until May, Meyer, and Berrios (with Stewart and Thorpe in the wings) start winning ballgames. For them to start winning ballgames, you need to give them MLB innings and learn the game at the highest level.

 

This pitching staff could be 50 runs better with an adequate outfield defense behind it. If you want real ROI on the pitching staff, that's the first place to look and it will cost you much less than a front-line starter that might bomb out by the time your best prospects are legitimate MLB players. Plus, with that same money you're also improving the offense. It's a two-way fix for less expense than buying a potentially volatile "ace" starter.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I always thought a good comp for him was Aaron Harang.  Both came up in the age 24 seasons and had some issue with walks but flashed potential.  Both have some strike out ability but both are probably more innings eaters than front line guys - but can be very valuable.  

Interesting comp.

 

 

Harang had fine control all through the minors, though -- just 2.4 BB/9, compared to May's career minor league 4.4 BB/9.  And sure enough, after a rough first half-season in MLB (5.2 BB/9), he's been a 2.7 BB/9 pitcher ever since.

In that light, May's current 4.9 BB/9 in MLB is actually pretty close to what you would expect, based on his minor league numbers.  Maybe he can get it down around 4, but it's almost certainly not going to drop like Harang's.  Which could make it more difficult for May to "eat innings".

[Otto von Ballpark]

Meyer should start next season in Minnesota, provided he's healthy. That means you have Gibson (good enough to get another year), Hughes (the no-brainer of the bunch), Nolasco (no way he's getting moved or demoted yet), May (given his recent run he should get strong consideration next season), and Meyer in the rotation.

That's probably likely, but I wouldn't mind signing a top starter, start May or more likely Meyer in AAA or the pen, and put Nolasco on notice.  If someone starts knocking on the door, push out Nolasco, or Gibson if he stalls out (or even Hughes if it's 2016 and you can't extend him).

 

 

Otherwise, we still have too much failure potential in 2015 Plan A for my tastes, without any terribly interesting/promising reinforcements until at least September 2015 at the earliest (Berrios), or even 2016-2017.

[Mike Frasier Law]

 

This pitching staff could be 50 runs better with an adequate outfield defense behind it. If you want real ROI on the pitching staff, that's the first place to look and it will cost you much less than a front-line starter that might bomb out by the time your best prospects are legitimate MLB players. Plus, with that same money you're also improving the offense. It's a two-way fix for less expense than buying a potentially volatile "ace" starter.

 

I was curious about how accurate this was. In 2014, the Twins pitching lead in difference between ERA and FIP at .64. In other words, their fielding has cost them .64 runs per game. Second place is the Rockies at .45. Ouch.

 

If you limit it to SP, the Twins still lead at 1.07. Second place? Tigers at .51.

 

The Twins have allowed 4.85 runs per game. If you decrease that by .64, they would actually have a positive run differential.

 

So maybe it's time to focus on defense.

[nicksaviking]

My guess is that it would only put  more pressure on them when they are already feeling the weight of the world on their shoulders, trying desperately to make it in the bigs.  It seems pretty clear to me that May's initial struggles were from nerves which would only be worse if they games actually meant something.

 

It could be.  On the otherhand, the early season optimism that fans and players both hang onto may take the focus off of the rookie.  When you get called up after three 90 loss seasons and your team is already 15 games back, all the fans and teammates have to embrace is your future upside and you will get most if not all the attention.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I was curious about how accurate this was. In 2014, the Twins pitching lead in difference between ERA and FIP at .64. In other words, their fielding has cost them .64 runs per game. Second place is the Rockies at .45. Ouch.

 

If you limit it to SP, the Twins still lead at 1.07. Second place? Tigers at .51.

 

The Twins have allowed 4.85 runs per game. If you decrease that by .64, they would actually have a positive run differential.

 

So maybe it's time to focus on defense.

Agreed. I don't think it's a coincidence that Twins pitchers continue to underperform when they have such a wretched outfield defense behind them.

 

Give them three good outfielders and I think the current pitching staff goes from "horrible" to "acceptable" overnight. They won't be world-beaters but they should hold their own.

 

Byron Buxton cannot arrive quickly enough.

[Linus]

I'm not interested in seeing Johnson start ten games in 2015, either... But to contend, you're going to need young arms at the minimum. The Twins can continue to patchwork a rotation together but it's likely that their rotation won't be truly competitive until May, Meyer, and Berrios (with Stewart and Thorpe in the wings) start winning ballgames. For them to start winning ballgames, you need to give them MLB innings and learn the game at the highest level.

 

This pitching staff could be 50 runs better with an adequate outfield defense behind it. If you want real ROI on the pitching staff, that's the first place to look and it will cost you much less than a front-line starter that might bomb out by the time your best prospects are legitimate MLB players. Plus, with that same money you're also improving the offense. It's a two-way fix for less expense than buying a potentially volatile "ace" starter.

I actually agree with your assessment and timeframe which is why I don't want to wait any longer.  By the time the rotation is anchored with effective performances from Berrios, Stewart, etc. we are talking 2016 at the earliest and maybe 2017.  That's simply too long to wait.

 

For the record, I concur with the risk associated with such a move and believe improving the outfield defense will really help.  Outfield defense can and should be improved regardless and could be cheap enough that it doesn't have to be an either / or proposition.  Hell, Hicks in center and Schafer in left would save them 50 runs (I'm not advocating that, just using it as an example).  The Twins will never be in a better position financially to go get a stud pitcher than they are right now.  In a few years when are rising young players are arb. eligible, we won't be signing any free agents.

[Nick Nelson]

I've never been that worried about May. His initial struggles carried all the signs of being shaded by learning curve and jitters.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I've never been that worried about May. His initial struggles carried all the signs of being shaded by learning curve and jitters.

Agreed. After his first couple of starts, I went as far as saying I didn't really care how he performed in 2014, he just needs to log the innings and get through his rookie status.

 

Now that he's performing much better, I'm pretty content with the Twins penciling him into the 2015 rotation unless something crazy happens between now and the end of March.

[jharaldson]

I am fine giving May a shot in the rotation next year but I think the positivity is a little early and ignores some very alarming batting numbers.  

 

His BABIP this year is .396 when league average is .296.  Some people say that BABIP will normalize and this will just naturally get better over time and I disagree with that.  

 

If you look deeper at the BABIP numbers you would notice that he has had 8 games in the majors and never pitched a single one of them with a BABIP lower than .333.  That is 0 for 8 on being at or below league average for BABIP and I think that is an indicator that it isn't something that will normalize but is something we should get used to for him.  

 

Another batting stat that is overlooked is his LD%.  He is currently at 24.8% when league average is 20.9%  This is another indicator that the high BABIP isn't just bad luck, he is legitimately getting hit hard.

 

I hope he works out and I hope his K/9 is a stat that shines thorugh but I personally don't think we are going to end 2015 and look back at May and say "well, that spot is locked down".

[Monkeypaws]

He's flashed plus stuff up here - give him a chance next season to show what he can do. If he can do what Gibson did this season, that gives them three guys under 5.00 ERA.

 

Hey, you gotta start somewhere....

[Brock Beauchamp]

I am fine giving May a shot in the rotation next year but I think the positivity is a little early and ignores some very alarming batting numbers.  

 

His BABIP this year is .396 when league average is .296.  Some people say that BABIP will normalize and this will just naturally get better over time and I disagree with that.  

 

If you look deeper at the BABIP numbers you would notice that he has had 8 games in the majors and never pitched a single one of them with a BABIP lower than .333.  That is 0 for 8 on being at or below league average for BABIP and I think that is an indicator that it isn't something that will normalize but is something we should get used to for him.  

 

Another batting stat that is overlooked is his LD%.  He is currently at 24.8% when league average is 20.9%  This is another indicator that the high BABIP isn't just bad luck, he is legitimately getting hit hard.

 

I hope he works out and I hope his K/9 is a stat that shines thorugh but I personally don't think we are going to end 2015 and look back at May and say "well, that spot is locked down".

That's a possibility but no one will know for sure until he logs a bunch of innings.

 

And that's kind of my point... The Twins can't continue to sign veteran players at the expense of guys coming through the system. Rookies are going to struggle. Some will succeed. Some will fail. You won't know which is which until you let them play.

 

Maybe May's LD% and BABIP remain obnoxiously high. Maybe they won't. It's a mystery until he throws a lot more pitches.

 

This is part of the rebuilding process. The Twins scored big on Hughes. They did the opposite on Nolasco.

 

The answer to that Nolasco failure is not to go out and sign another FA pitcher and take innings away from the Mays, Meyers, and Berrios of the world. If you can move Nolasco (unlikely) and sign someone else, so be it... but don't take playing time from the top prospects in the organization. They're the backbone of your next winning team.

[jharaldson]

That's a possibility but no one will know for sure until he logs a bunch of innings.

 

And that's kind of my point... The Twins can't continue to sign veteran players at the expense of guys coming through the system. Rookies are going to struggle. Some will succeed. Some will fail. You won't know which is which until you let them play.

 

Maybe May's LD% and BABIP remain obnoxiously high. Maybe they won't. It's a mystery until he throws a lot more pitches.

 

I agree with giving him the rest of this season and an extended run next season to get those innings and to figure this out.  I am responding to those on this thread that are stating they were never that worried about May.  Those that say Gibson had a bad 2013 followed by more success in 2014 so May will logically have more success in 2015 after his poor 2014.  I personally predict a BABIP at least 40 points above league average next year with a LD% at least 3 points above league average next year based off what I have seen so far and question if he can be a success in 2015 with those type of batted ball numbers.