How Concerned are You?

[TheLeviathan]

Brian Dozier has hit one homerun since July 22nd.  

 

Discuss.

[gunnarthor]

Of all the things to be concerned about, that's pretty low.  In that time frame, he's walked 31 times and struck out 32.  His OBP is .364.  He'll run into the occasional homer but he's pretty pull happy to get it there. 

[Platoon]

Dick mentioned that they have quit throwing him high fastballs.... Would that have anything to do with it.... Not dick mentioning it, I mean the not throwing high fastballs!

[Monkeypaws]

That seemed to be his red zone. Adjustments, adjustments.

[snepp]

He still has a .700 ops during his "power outage", I'm not too concerned.

[Badsmerf]

Concern? I wouldn't use that term. I thought it was unrealistic to expect a bunch from him. He is still a good player. He has been hitting more doubles now too. I still believe Rosario at 2b has a higher ceiling than Dozier.

[hawkiconk]

while i would not use dick as a reference at any time......

[Physics Guy]

No concerns at all.  He had an .834 OPS in August.  September isn't looking so great, but SSS.

[RealTwinsFan357]

My concern is not with home runs, my concern is that his BA is still so low despite the increase in his BABIP during the second half. He's still getting on base, but hits are still important. His OBP is impressive, but I feel like he's been hitting like a number 8 hitter since August.

[TheLeviathan]

I don't think it's at all a low concern if one of the best young players the team has developed in the last two years is seemingly still a bit of an identity crisis.  

 

Dozier is able to get on base with walks and scores runs, we know that it seems.  But a lot of the positive production in August was driven by a BABIP roughly 100 points better than he typically sports.  

 

I guess I'm still concerned with what we can expect from Dozier long term beyond good defender and good on-base guy.  He seems to be prone to extreme streakiness and when I started thinking of what to project next year I was left still scratching my head about his game.

[kab21]

You should only be concerned if you thought he was a 20+ HR hitter and he needed to hit 20+ HR's to be successful.  In August he still had a .140 isoP so the power was still there.

 

He's still a low .700's OPS guy with decent defense.  Even during his HR binge this was my expectation.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I suspect he adjusts a bit. I do think the average will come up. He hit .298 in his minor league career. I suspect he's able to raise it up into the .250/.260 range while keeping his power.

[RedBull34]

I honestly think that the BABIP in August has risen because he's not trying to put it over the fence as often. 

 

If he's sacrificing power for OBP, the BABIP would come up and HR's down.

 

His GB and LD % are up, plus maybe a little luck, and the BABIP is explained.

[RedBull34]

Dick mentioned that they have quit throwing him high fastballs.... Would that have anything to do with it.... Not dick mentioning it, I mean the not throwing high fastballs!

I would say Dick is right if somebody asks a pitcher of a high ball hitter and Dozier comes to mind first.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/finding-high-ball-hitters-with-chris-young/

[TheLeviathan]

You should only be concerned if you thought he was a 20+ HR hitter and he needed to hit 20+ HR's to be successful.  In August he still had a .140 isoP so the power was still there.

 

He's still a low .700's OPS guy with decent defense.  Even during his HR binge this was my expectation.

 

That's fair (Though again I wonder how much of August is just flukey luck), but I'd suggest Dozier has teased us with more than those expectations at times.

 

Maybe my concern was born more out of hope that he'd be better than that expectation.

[Riverbrian]

If I'm a pitcher... Why would I throw him a fastball up and in?

 

I wouldn't until Dozier proves he can go the other way.

 

Yeah... I'm concerned. 100 at bats without a dinger is significant from your home run leader.

[twinsnorth49]

If I'm a pitcher... Why would I throw him a fastball up and in?

 

I wouldn't until Dozier proves he can go the other way.

 

Yeah... I'm concerned. 100 at bats without a dinger is significant from your home run leader.

Not so much if it's not your HR leader, which Dozier shouldn't be. I'm really not concerned, he's still driving the ball and he's proven he has the ability to make adjustments, quite possible he does again.

 

If he settles in as a low to mid. 700 ops guy with an increased BA, combined with his plus defense, I'll be happy.

[Kwak]

There is concern.  When Dozier was hitting like he was a 30HR/year guy, the Twins could overlook the low BAVG (his BB rate was sound) and his defense was better than any other regular on the team.  But if the Dozier we now see is what we should expect is his normal performance, then the team needs to keep its mind open to MiLers in the system as a replacement/upgrade.  Dozier could soon become quite expensive--and the Twins still need pitching.  Summarizing, the post-July 22 Dozier is not a long-term keeper.

[Riley Roy]

Or........he is the latest victim of the curse of the home run derby.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Not worried about it, as his peripherals are still pretty good. If he wasn't taking walks and was missing the ball a ton, then I'd be worried.

[kab21]

Okay, I was wrong.  There are unreasonable expectations for Dozier.  He was playing like a top 5 2Bman.  He wasn't though and now he's playing like a better than average 2Bman.  That's what he is.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Okay, I was wrong.  There are unreasonable expectations for Dozier.  He was playing like a top 5 2Bman.  He wasn't though and now he's playing like a better than average 2Bman.  That's what he is.

I think he's a good second baseman. The type of guy who will hit .850 for a month and then settle into .700 for a couple of months, then hit .800 again, and end the season in the .750 range.

 

He misses the ball a lot and doesn't hit for average. He's going to be streaky with the OPS because it's driven so much by extra base hits. As long as he keeps taking walks, I'm fine with that.

[TheLeviathan]

I guess I actually became a bit more concerned by this thread and how many people are content with Dozier being far less than a high level performer.

 

It's more than we could've hoped a few years ago, but it's clearly lowered expectations from what people were saying before the season.

[USAFChief]

My opinion hasn't changed much. Dozier is good enough to be an everyday starting 2nd baseman on a WS caliber team.

 

But he isn't good enough to be among the 3 or 4 best players on that team. Much like Plouffe.

 

Which is OK, provided the Twins find a way to develop, sign, or trade for the guys who ARE the 3 or 4 best players on a WS team. Hopefully Mauer can be one, only 2 or 3 to find.

[Thrylos]

Dozier did not have much protection this season.  He is quietly closing towards a 5 fWAR season.  I'd love to see what he can do in a better team.   Weekly ups and downs are immaterial... 

[gunnarthor]

I guess I actually became a bit more concerned by this thread and how many people are content with Dozier being far less than a high level performer.

 

It's more than we could've hoped a few years ago, but it's clearly lowered expectations from what people were saying before the season.

Cripes, he's a 5 WAR player.  It's not like he was a high level pick or a high rated prospect.  He's doing great.  Every single player has home run droughts - he wasn't going to hit 30+.  As pointed out, while he's been in his home run funk, he's still managed to get on-base at a very high rate.  This is a very good player. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

I guess I actually became a bit more concerned by this thread and how many people are content with Dozier being far less than a high level performer.

I don't think that's really fair. He's OPSing right around .750 in an era where a .750 OPS is a decent number for a corner outfielder.

 

And he's still a very good defender and solid baserunner. He's a pretty complete package outside of batting average (which I thought would go up this season with a dip in power but he's pretty much the same guy he was last season).

[TheLeviathan]

Cripes, he's a 5 WAR player. It's not like he was a high level pick or a high rated prospect. He's doing great. Every single player has home run droughts - he wasn't going to hit 30+. As pointed out, while he's been in his home run funk, he's still managed to get on-base at a very high rate. This is a very good player.

Nowhere did I say he was a bad player.

 

At the middle point of the season a .700ish OPS would've been seen as pessimistic and now it's generally accepted. I'm a bit concerned by that tail off in expectations.

[TheLeviathan]

I don't think that's really fair. He's OPSing right around .750 in an era where a .750 OPS is a decent number for a corner outfielder.

 

And he's still a very good defender and solid baserunner. He's a pretty complete package outside of batting average (which I thought would go up this season with a dip in power but he's pretty much the same guy he was last season).

 

No where have I said he's a bad player.  He's a fine player, but I could easily dig up some May/June stuff on this same board on Dozier and your post here would sound like a grumpy pessimist by comparison.

 

There's been a change and it hasn't been for an uptick in expectations.  

[gunnarthor]

Nowhere did I say he was a bad player - your entire response was to a scarecrow.

 

At the middle point of the season a .700ish OPS would've been seen as pessimistic and now it's generally accepted.  I'm a bit concerned by that tail off in expectations.

How about we leave it at this - you are undervaluing on-base and over valuing slugging percentage? 

 

His OPS by month -

April - .791

May - .729

June - .800

July - .682

August - .834

September - .440

His best month, OPS-wise, was August.