How Concerned are You?

[TheLeviathan]

How about we leave it at this - you are undervaluing on-base and over valuing slugging percentage? 

 

His OPS by month -

April - .791

May - .729

June - .800

July - .682

August - .834

September - .440

His best month, OPS-wise, was August. 

 

August was also driven by a freaky good BABIP.  I'm not undervaluing his strength - I'm glad he has that skill.  But part of what had us excited about him was that he was combining power with that strength.  

[Riverbrian]

I'm a huge fan of Dozier... On the base paths and defensively... He makes me very happy.

 

I love that he has pop in his bat. As a total package... I think Dozier is very very valuable.

 

I'm concerned because I think he can be pitched around. If Dozier can put the bat on the ball more often and take it the other way more often... He could be the best 2B in the league.

 

I'm concerned because he can be pitched around and until he can do something with the outside pitch I'll remain optimistically concerned.

[Physics Guy]

Nowhere did I say he was a bad player.

 

At the middle point of the season a .700ish OPS would've been seen as pessimistic and now it's generally accepted. I'm a bit concerned by that tail off in expectations.

Levi, I'm not quite following you.  Dozier is sitting at .746 OPS.  It may not seem like it, but that's still quite a ways from .700-ish.  He ended August at the same OPS as July 22.  September isn't treating him well.  It's possible the losing is getting to him, maybe he's trying to do too much or he's just wearing down.  He has played all but 4 games this year.

[TheLeviathan]

Levi, I'm not quite following you.  Dozier is sitting at .746 OPS.  It may not seem like it, but that's still quite a ways from .700-ish.  He ended August at the same OPS as July 22.  September isn't treating him well.  It's possible the losing is getting to him, maybe he's trying to do too much or he's just wearing down.  He has played all but 4 games this year.

 

Yeah, he's doing fine - but the homerun power has been sapped for awhile.  I posted the thread because I was surprised just how sapped it had been.

 

Taking his power out of his game is going to hurt his OPS pretty significantly, that's concerning.

[stringer bell]

I like Dozier a lot.  He did a fine job as a leadoff hitter, but he probably will never hit with a high BA.  Hitting second, in front of Mauer, is not a good position for a true pull hitter.  He won't advance many guys on outs and won't run much in the second spot either.   I like him down the order much more.  I do agree that he has worn down.  I think he should have a day off each series for the rest of the way. 

[kab21]

August was also driven by a freaky good BABIP.  I'm not undervaluing his strength - I'm glad he has that skill.  But part of what had us excited about him was that he was combining power with that strength.  

 

So you discount August because of freaky good BAPIP but you weren't discounting the 1st half because of an unexplained # of HR's?   

 

I still don't understand what you thought he was going to be.  Did you think he was a near elite 2Bman?  I didn't believe the HR's were real and I considered him more of an average player the whole time. 

[TheLeviathan]

So you discount August because of freaky good BAPIP but you weren't discounting the 1st half because of an unexplained # of HR's?   

 

I still don't understand what you thought he was going to be.  Did you think he was a near elite 2Bman?  I didn't believe the HR's were real and I considered him more of an average player the whole time. 

 

Well, at one point the homeruns were real.  So, yeah, I was kind of hoping he might be able to sustain that.  I'm not sure why that's an awful sin.

[kab21]

Well, at one point the homeruns were real.  So, yeah, I was kind of hoping he might be able to sustain that.  I'm not sure why that's an awful sin.

 

How were the lucky HR's more or less real than the lucky hits?

 

8/20 of Dozier's HR's were 'just enoughs' as defined by hittrackeronline. 

[stringer bell]

Speaking of concern, I wonder how good Perkins is going to be for the remainder of his contract.  Honestly, I think he has to adapt some and perhaps come up with another pitcher.  He has stayed with his 92-94 mph fastball and his slider.  I think he needs to have something that is a change of speeds.  I think he threw one changeup yesterday and it was in the dirt.  Everybody seems to throw at least 92 in mlb bullpens, so he really needs to locate his fastball.

[TheLeviathan]

How were the lucky HR's more or less real than the lucky hits?

 

8/20 of Dozier's HR's were 'just enoughs' as defined by hittrackeronline. 

 

That's a fair argument then.  You should make it, but I never heard such an argument at the time.

 

His BABIP is flukey in August, not sure how anyone can disagree with that.  And I'm not even saying we can't expect months like that because Dozier has been pretty streaky so far since his adjustments.

 

But again, as of mid June, early July - there was reason to hope he'd be more than a low .700 OPS player.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

My opinion hasn't changed much. Dozier is good enough to be an everyday starting 2nd baseman on a WS caliber team.

But he isn't good enough to be among the 3 or 4 best players on that team. Much like Plouffe.

Which is OK, provided the Twins find a way to develop, sign, or trade for the guys who ARE the 3 or 4 best players on a WS team. Hopefully Mauer can be one, only 2 or 3 to find.

that's just it, when Plouffe leads your team with a .749 OPS as a 3b, where the heck are your corner outfielders, DH and 1b. For as bad as the outfield fielding as been, there is where your ops leader should come from, not your 3b or 2b

[kab21]

That's a fair argument then.  You should make it, but I never heard such an argument at the time.

 

His BABIP is flukey in August, not sure how anyone can disagree with that.  And I'm not even saying we can't expect months like that because Dozier has been pretty streaky so far since his adjustments.

 

But again, as of mid June, early July - there was reason to hope he'd be more than a low .700 OPS player.

 

There hasn't been much of a disagreement that his BAPIP was fluky.   I think you are dismissive of just how valuable Dozier can be as a .725 OPS player. 

[TheLeviathan]

There hasn't been much of a disagreement that his BAPIP was fluky.   I think you are dismissive of just how valuable Dozier can be as a .725 OPS player. 

 

No, I'm just acknowledging it's less valuable than a .780 OPS.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I'm not as worried about hitting and scoring runs as I am with fielding and pitching. Yes this team gas scored a ton of runs based on timing and luck, but those things have circulated through the players so much that I'm less worried that it's isolated, including a Dozier.

[kab21]

No, I'm just acknowledging it's less valuable than a .780 OPS.

 

That would rank 4th among 2Bman.  .725 still ranks in the top 10.

 

Did you really think he was a top 5 2Bman?  I thought he was good but I never thought he was that good.

[ScrapTheNickname]

I am more concerned with Dozier's drop in stolen bases. He has 5 since June 16. That's 5 in 3 months, which would work out to 15 per year. Is this what we can expect going forward? If, as someone noted, his OBP is up, why have his stolen bases dropped so sharply? 

[TheLeviathan]

That would rank 4th among 2Bman.  .725 still ranks in the top 10.

 

Did you really think he was a top 5 2Bman?  I thought he was good but I never thought he was that good.

 

I thought he could stay near that level, yes.  Or at least I hoped he could.  The park plays to his strengths and with the strong OBP as a base he didn't have to be a power monster to stay at that level.  He just needed to stay solid with his power.

 

Instead he's dropped considerably in his homerun production.  If we should expect him to settle in more at 10 or so homeruns I think that's a bit of a disappointment from where we were a few months ago.  

[Otwins]

So the next question is do you extend him, trade him or go year to year ?

The answer depends on what you think he is and what the rest of the league thinks he is. Personally I like Dozier I like his all around game.

[gunnarthor]

That's a fair argument then.  You should make it, but I never heard such an argument at the time.

 

His BABIP is flukey in August, not sure how anyone can disagree with that.  And I'm not even saying we can't expect months like that because Dozier has been pretty streaky so far since his adjustments.

 

But again, as of mid June, early July - there was reason to hope he'd be more than a low .700 OPS player.

His babip is really irrelevant.  The sample size is so small that it's nearly worthless.  His babip in August was .326, in July it was .253.  Do you know how much that difference equated to?  6 hits.  Take away those six hits and he still had about a .370 OBP for August.

 

The reason most of us aren't worried about Dozier's non-home runs is because he's still getting on base at a great rate - it isn't babip driven.  In July, he walked 3 times and struck out 23, in August he walked 25 times and struck out only 18.  The only month he's been a low .700s OPS guy was July. 

 

And it's not like his power has completely disappeared.  His ISO % by month:

April - .227

May - .158

June - .179

July - .190

August - .141

 

All of those numbers are very good. 

[gunnarthor]

Well, at one point the homeruns were real.  So, yeah, I was kind of hoping he might be able to sustain that.  I'm not sure why that's an awful sin.

Nobody's accusing you of any sin. Most people understand that home runs aren't hit on a schedule. Most hitters have hot and cold months so judging how a player is doing solely on home runs isn't a good way of evaluating how well the player is doing. 

[gunnarthor]

I am more concerned with Dozier's drop in stolen bases. He has 5 since June 16. That's 5 in 3 months, which would work out to 15 per year. Is this what we can expect going forward? If, as someone noted, his OBP is up, why have his stolen bases dropped so sharply? 

I wonder if that has something do with where he's hitting (1 or 2) and/or if who is hitting behind him has any impact? 

[TheLeviathan]

Nobody's accusing you of any sin. Most people understand that home runs aren't hit on a schedule. Most hitters have hot and cold months so judging how a player is doing solely on home runs isn't a good way of evaluating how well the player is doing. 

 

At no point have I judged him by his homeruns.   I apparently can't point out the logical fallacy you keep employing but I'd appreciate it if you stopped.

 

Dozier's on base skills are great and give him a high floor as a player.  The problem is that the homerun ball is what made him a fringe elite player at his position.  If the homeruns dry up he goes from being fringe elite to a solid player.

 

That doesn't mean I want him cut.  I'm not saying he's a bad player, but a solid player is less valuable than a fringe elite one.  When a player loses that kind of value in a matter of months it concerns me.  Especially when this team needs all the fringe elite players it can get.  (As do all teams)

[gunnarthor]

You set up a thread based entirely on "how concerned are you that Dozier has hit one home run since July 22."  Most people have pointed out, correctly, that they are not concerned and given their reasons.  (You are also wrong by claiming it was home runs that made him a fringe elite player.  His on-base ability is much more important in that regard).  

[TheLeviathan]

You set up a thread based entirely on "how concerned are you that Dozier has hit one home run since July 22."  Most people have pointed out, correctly, that they are not concerned and given their reasons.  (You are also wrong by claiming it was home runs that made him a fringe elite player.  His on-base ability is much more important in that regard).

People aren't concerned largely because they didn't put as much stock into his early success as I did. I bought it and had hope that the .800ish OPS player he was could be sustainable. That doesn't make me wrong or them correct - it was a hope. My concern is born out of the fact that he doesn't appear to be as valuable as could once have been hoped.

 

You'll notice none of this "duh he was never that valuable" talk was floating around in June when he was a fringe elite player.  I find it a bit convenient to be laid out now that the homeruns have left, but in any case there does appear to be some valid reasons for doubting that early success.

 

However, there were also valid reasons (see some of Parker's work) to believe it could be sustained.  So this isn't a right or wrong issue, there are valid reasons to be on both sides of it.  I respect kab's opinion for not having a concern because he thought the April-June Dozier was a bit flukey.  Fair point.  I didn't think April-June was flukey so I'm a bit concerned.  I know we'll still have a good player either way, but I'm concerned we may have lost out on a borderline elite player if the power is truly sapped.  And my impetus for the thread was based on the surprise of just how sapped it's really been.  One homerun since the all-star break surprised me because it didn't feel as though it had gone that dry.

[Linus]

I'm not concerned about him per se, because, in my book, he is an elite fielder on a team that desperately needs defense.  He's already a strong contributor in the field and on the bases so his inconsistency with the bat is less concerning.  I am a lot more worried about the rest of the roster who are generally poor in the field and inconsistent with the stick.

[TheLeviathan]

I agree this concern isnt a high priority, but an interesting topic IMO.

[Brandon]

He's second in the league in scoring.  so lets see .....

 

March/ April   25 runs

May                19 Runs

June               16

July                12

August            25

September       3

 

From this I can see that he had a little slump in June and July but he picked it right back up in August.  He is really slumping to finish out the season.  I wonder if he may be tired based on the way he's scoring right now. 

 

Another major area of concern is his lack of triples.  He has 0 triples on the year meaning he doesn't seem to have the ability to test the OF arms at least once or twice and try for third and succeed.  He has had 32 chances to convert a 2b to a triple and has failed 32 times to make it happen.  That's a lot of failure and it shouldn't be tolerated.