Trevor May

[gunnarthor]

Because he was my adopt-a-prospect and b/c I'm a complete homer, I am going to find the good.  Over his last three starts, May has a  10.8 k/9 and only 1.2 BB/9 and an xFIP of 3.45.  His massive era over that time is because of a ridiculously high babip and insanely low LOB%.  

 

Obviously, I'm just picking and chosing within a SSS of data so it's basically worthless but he has cut down the walks quite a bit and yesterday was his first start against a team not fighting for a postseasons spot (A's, Orioles, KC and Det).  He made some rookie mistakes but so did Gibson and Baker and Radke and Santana ....  It does look like he has some legitimate strike out ability and I'll stick to my thoughts that he could have some Aaron Harang type seasons sometime.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I don't think this is cherry-picking... to an extent, anyway. If a pitcher misses a lot of bats and doesn't issue free passes, he will have some level of success in MLB.

 

Trevor May has six appearances and five starts. It's promising that roughly half of those starts have been successful, if only from a peripheral standpoint. If he keeps doing what he has been doing lately, he'll be an acceptable MLB starter at some point. BABIP will normalize sooner or later.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

I thought he pitched pretty well for most of his start last night - he definitely is streaky. When he strikes a guy out, he seems to have more swagger and pitches well to the next batter. If he happens to give up a hit (doesn't matter if it is an infield single or a screaming line drive), he is visibly agitated.  

 

I even saw him get irritated when a foul pop fell between Pinto and Mauer near the Twins' dugout. He rides the emotional highs and lows of seemingly each pitch he throws.

 

That can be exciting to watch, but I am hopeful that he can cut down on that a bit and just pitch. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

I thought he pitched pretty well for most of his start last night - he definitely is streaky. When he strikes a guy out, he seems to have more swagger and pitches well to the next batter. If he happens to give up a hit (doesn't matter if it is an infield single or a screaming line drive), he is visibly agitated.  

 

I even saw him get irritated when a foul pop fell between Pinto and Mauer near the Twins' dugout. He rides the emotional highs and lows of seemingly each pitch he throws.

 

That can be exciting to watch, but I am hopeful that he can cut down on that a bit and just pitch. 

That will probably abate in time. Remember that at this point last year, Gibson looked terrified on the mound. He nibbled at every batter and would visibly lose confidence after a tough at-bat.

 

I think this is part of the learning process, nothing more.

[drjim]

Pitching like a young guy often does. I'm skeptical he will be a full time starter but he will have success as an mlb pitcher in some capactiy.

[adjacent]

My impression is that he has the pitches, no doubt. I think he ran out of gast starting in the 4th inning, which is not hard to understand. He has a long minor leage season behind, a few starts in MLB, that didn't go well. A lot of adrenaline in the first inning and then when that wears out, the wall comes. But, different than when you see the Correias of the world pitching, with May you see that the pitches are there.

[TheLeviathan]

You can see the talent on display in a start like last nights.  And then you can also see the nerves and the need for adjustment.

 

That's all part of the process, happy to have it happening now so we can be excited for next year.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I think his problem is primarily mental. This was something that was pointed out about him in AA and something he referenced himself during his season in AAA this year. I suspect the promotion has given him the jitters a bit and he needs to calm down. We may not see the benefits of this until next year when he gets into more of a routine, but I suspect his BABIP will 'normalize' when he stops missing his spots and overthrowing his pitches.

[Mike Sixel]

He did reference his struggles with the mental side in that interview many of us read on this site.....

[Willihammer]

I'd like to see May take a page out of the Yu Darvish playbook and pitch exclusively out of the stretch for the rest of the year (I realize Darvish isn't the first to do this). Even with no one on base. Attack the problem head-on.

[Riverbrian]

I honestly wouldn't have started him last night. Mainly for his own mental sanity.

 

But... I'm glad that Gardy did.

 

I will only be concerned about his current issues... Mainly his wheels falling off... if he is still doing it into next season. Then... I will become concerned.

 

May has the potential to straighten out and fly right. He just needs to find himself.

[jharaldson]

I guess I don't buy that his BABIP is going to normalize.  He has had starts with bad control, good control, bad strikeout numbers, good strikeout numbers and the one constant through all of these is when batters make contact they get hits.  He does not have a single start year that is withing 58 points of league average BABIP.  During the last 3 starts his BABIP has actually gotten worse.  During his first 3 starts he had no HR allowed and during the last 3 he has allowed 3 HR.  2 of the runners on base during the grand slam in Baltimore were put on by HBP which is reflected in almost no stats with the exception of ERA.

[beyondclarity]

I think his problem is primarily mental.

 

 

This was going to be my point exactly, I think its all in his head.  That first start in OAK had one of the most raucous crowds you're likely to hear in August.  I think that clearly rattled him.  I've also seen instances where when he does walk a guy instead of coming after the next guy, he nibbles, loses more composure and things spiral from there...

 

I'm still fully on the May bandwagon his strike percentage last night through the first handful of innings was great.  And it was great to see him pitch well and more confidently once he had a lead.

[Mike Frasier Law]

And this is why it's nice to see him pitching now - meaningless games in September while his nerves calm down. I want him to know what to expect when the season starts next year.

 

I was under the impression that he threw harder than he's showing now. According to fangraphs, his fastball velocity has been between 88.1 and 94.1 with average at 91.6. Anyone here know if that's what he was doing in the minors, or is this late season fatigue?

[USAFChief]

I echo the post above...where'd the velocity go?

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I echo the post above...where'd the velocity go?

 

I'll hazard a guess on this one, but I think the coaches are having him slow down a bit since he's been a bit wild. That would be my recommendation at least.

[James Richter]

To give an idea of how out of hand May's BABIP numbers are right now, MLB is batting .640 on liners, .080 on flies, and .245 on grounders. May's opponents so far are hitting .792 on liners, .087 on flies and .387 on grounders (according to baseball-reference). The flies are about right, but the liners and grounders are ludicrously high and we can expect them to come down drastically as the sample size increases. His HR/FB rate is about where you'd expect it. The improvement he's shown in the things he can control over the last 3 starts is very encouraging - compare May's last 4 GS (19.2 IP, 30 H, 19 ER, 3 HR, 6 BB, 19 K) to Hughes' first 4 GS as a Twin (21 IP, 29 H, 15 ER, 3 HR, 6 BB, 20 K). Hughes' BABIP over that stretch was .394, since then it's been a much more reasonable (though still high) .322. 

 

I expect to see May complete 6 IP a couple times before the season ends. He was so good in AAA this year, I don't know that he has much left to prove there. I'm sure he'll get every opportunity to make the rotation next spring.

[big dog]

I think we can broadly agree that his stuff looks good until someone gets on base, more often than not.  Once that happens things fall apart.  Whether it's mental, pitching from the stretch, whatever, that should be a fixable problem.  I wish he were better now, but my guess is he will definitely improve.

[ashbury]

I think we can broadly agree that his stuff looks good until someone gets on base, more often than not.  Once that happens things fall apart. 

Bases empty: OPS .574

Anybody on: OPS 1.387

 

Small sample size, but come on.  Ricky Nolasco by contrast is putrid either way, .915/.892 respectively.

 

If it's a problem with how he pitches with men on base, then the high BABIP might be not (quite) so much of a fluke as with most pitchers in small samples. 

 

Supposing it's a problem with the mechanics of pitching from the stretch, this seems like something that someone could advise him on.  Someone like, oh, I don't know, a pitching coach.  We're five starts into his career now, and the basic pattern still seems to be occurring.

 

/ edit: with nobody on, BABIP is a normal-seeming .318.  Guess what that means for when bases are occupied: .543.  That's insane.  And, slicing the small sample even smaller, when it's only a man on first, where he's perhaps the most concerned about a straight steal, the BABIP is .615 in 21 PA.  I don't care that it's a small sample, to me that points to where something has to be worked on.

 

/ edit^2: the splits on b-r.com aren't as thorough for minor league play, but this year at Rochester his BABIP is .272 with bases empty,  .357 with anyone on base.  OPS of .551/.883 respectively.  It's a pattern that his previous pitching coach couldn't solve either, apparently.

[Mike Frasier Law]

Bases empty: OPS .574

Anybody on: OPS 1.387

 

Small sample size, but come on.  Ricky Nolasco by contrast is putrid either way, .915/.892 respectively.

 

 

I just threw up a little bit.

[ericchri]

So clearly the answer is to just coach him to only throw no-hitters.  What's hard about that?

[Brock Beauchamp]

Bases empty: OPS .574

Anybody on: OPS 1.387

http://neeshcast.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/Anchorman-Im-not-even-mad.png

[jokin]

 

 

I'll hazard a guess on this one, but I think the coaches are having him slow down a bit since he's been a bit wild. That would be my recommendation at least.

 

But he wasn't even "fast" in his debut appearance.  Definitely not as advertised with the big heat, although the "plus-curve" is now working for him much better in the last 3 games, plus the total off-speed package, as well.  His strike rate/whiff rate from the first 3 to the last 3:  

 

for the curve- 40%/0% to 58/11,

for the change- 50/16.7  to 69/20

for the slider-  69/6.3  to  63/14.3 

 

I think certain posters in major panic mode after the first 3 games can climb off the roof ledge.

 

Consider, as Gunnarthor pointed out in the K/9 and BB/9 numbers in his last 3 games, his K/BB ratio for them is a ridiculously good 9.0.

 

His overall strike percentage has gone from 55.9% in his first 3, versus 65.9% in his last 3 games.

 

As stated, in this time frame, his xFIP is 3.45, and is further supported by a SIERA of 3.01.

 

He's taken some definite steps forward, now I'd like to see that alleged 95 MPH FB get flashed a little more often and it's definitely time to start in on some visualization techniques while working out of the stretch.  

[gunnarthor]

On his fastball, I think most reports I read said he had a fastball between 92-95.  Last night he had, per mlb's gameday, a couple 94, about eight at 93 and a bunch at 92.  I think that's probably about normal for him, assuming he holds velocity when he starts pitching longer.  

[jokin]

On his fastball, I think most reports I read said he had a fastball between 92-95.  Last night he had, per mlb's gameday, a couple 94, about eight at 93 and a bunch at 92.  I think that's probably about normal for him, assuming he holds velocity when he starts pitching longer.  

 

 

Aren't those just about his first two 94s so far? I was under the impression that the reports about occasionally touching 95 and 96 were part of a whole lot of 93s and 94s, as he's been advertised pretty much as consistently throwing 92-95, and Mike Berardino wrote this on the eve of his major league debut:

 

 

Armed with a mid-90s fastball, a sharp breaking ball and an above-average changeup, May has cut his nine-inning rate to a career-best 3.49 walks this season while still striking out 8.59 batters. He has worked at least six innings in nine of his 17 starts.

 

.His velocity stats show he's averaged 91.6 thus far.  Seems like too many 89, 90, 91 FBs in the mix, that are perhaps a bit more hittable for major leaguers.

[gunnarthor]

I always figured when you get a range for a minor leaguer - say 92-95 - that the number on the high end wasn't going to be common.  92-93ish is probably May's normal run. And that's not just Twins pitchers.  Trevor Bauer, for instance, was supposed to have a high 90s 97-99 fastball, occasionally touching 100.  This year it's gotten up to 94 on fangraphs but had been 92 the previous two years.  

 

Anyhow, back to May.  His fastball, per fangraphs, is something like 91.6 in Sept. That's pretty good.  He's striking out a batter an inning lately while learning to pitch in the majors at the end of a long season.  It's much more important that he has swing and miss stuff than the actual MPH.

[jharaldson]

To give an idea of how out of hand May's BABIP numbers are right now, MLB is batting .640 on liners, .080 on flies, and .245 on grounders. May's opponents so far are hitting .792 on liners, .087 on flies and .387 on grounders (according to baseball-reference). The flies are about right, but the liners and grounders are ludicrously high and we can expect them to come down drastically as the sample size increases. 

 

24.7% of the balls hit of off Trevor May are line drives right now.  For perspective, that ranks 121st out of 125 for starting pitchers with over 100 innings.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=all&qual=100&type=2&season=2014&month=0&season1=2014&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=5,d

 

I would also say that minor league pitchers sometimes have an advantage for a period of time on MLB hitters because there is not a bunch of video on them and they have not seen them pitch before.  The fact that May is so hittable during this stretch where just pure unfamiliarity should give him an edge makes me worried that his high BABIP might normalize but that normalization might be well above league average.

[jokin]

I always figured when you get a range for a minor leaguer - say 92-95 - that the number on the high end wasn't going to be common.  92-93ish is probably May's normal run. And that's not just Twins pitchers.  Trevor Bauer, for instance, was supposed to have a high 90s 97-99 fastball, occasionally touching 100.  This year it's gotten up to 94 on fangraphs but had been 92 the previous two years.  

 

Anyhow, back to May.  His fastball, per fangraphs, is something like 91.6 in Sept. That's pretty good.  He's striking out a batter an inning lately while learning to pitch in the majors at the end of a long season.  It's much more important that he has swing and miss stuff than the actual MPH.

 

Agreed.  And as I noted in Post #23, his off-speed stuff has shown great improvement in the whiff rate.

On the FB, his velocity was 91.5 for the first 3 games, and 91.6 for the last 3.  On his Strike%/Whiff%, here are the comps:

 

First three:  58.6%/2.6%

Last three   67.6%/6.7%

 

Baby steps worth of improvement, to be sure.

 

By comparison, here are "control" pitcher, not "power"-K-pitcher, Phil Hughes' FB Strike%/Whiff% for the 2014 season:  76.4%/9.3%.  His average velocity this year is 92.1.

 

Something to strive for, to be sure.

[kab21]

There really isn't much reason to do any statistical analysis on May.  He's completely sucked but he is just getting his feet wet and we can pretty much just throw these stats out.

 

This is another reason why Milone and May shouldn't be penciled into the opening day rotation or spots held open for either of them (or even Meyer).  AFAIK they all have options and singing a FA starter won't block any of them considering the disaster (possible injury) of Nolasco, the uncertainty of Meyer, Pelfrey's issues (being polite) and May/Milone struggling.  Nobody good will be blocked for a considerable length of time.

[Willihammer]

In the rose colored hyperbolic prospect world, if a guy throws 96 miles per hours once on a hot gun in high school, he is forever labelled a "mid 90s" fastball.