Sinker: Pirates find Worley's mechanical flaw

[twinsnorth49]

That's why the placeholders are needed until the true talent is ready. People are getting hung up on the ages of the placeholders. You could've artificially dropped the age of the major league roster for 2014 by stocking up on guys who didn't make it out of single-A and are now trying out for the Saints, but it wouldn't accelerate the actual rebuild, because guys with high upside aren't available for the asking. Average age of the present roster may not be meaningless, but it's the wrong metric.

 

I don't think anyone is necessarily getting hung up on the age of the place holders, to me it's more about how long they're needed and when the true talent is ready.

 

I freely admit TR is a much better judge at that than I am, I'd just like to see some more movement in that direction.

[ashbury]

I don't think anyone is necessarily getting hung up on the age of the place holders

 

That's the measure I saw being proposed to tell whether the rebuild is happening and on schedule.

 

to me it's more about how long they're needed and when the true talent is ready

 

To me it's more about what's the best way to get the true talent ready - bringing more up to the 40-man and the 25-man doesn't seem like an obvious improvement versus letting them learn in the minors.

 

Which is bringing us pretty far afield from the topic of Worley's spate of success.

[LaBombo]

That's why the placeholders are needed until the true talent is ready. People are getting hung up on the ages of the placeholders. You could've artificially dropped the age of the major league roster for 2014 by stocking up on guys who didn't make it out of single-A and are now trying out for the Saints, but it wouldn't accelerate the actual rebuild, because guys with high upside aren't available for the asking. Average age of the present roster may not be meaningless, but it's the wrong metric.

 

Agreed to an extent, and many of my posts have been about caution with rushing guys like Hicks to the majors.

 

But my (admittedly way, way off-topic by now) response was meant to address a binary post that assigned player age consideration a value of zero.

 

And in keeping with the off-topic-ness, it was also about how the Twins contrast with the Cubs and their ability to lose at an acceptable rate without a third of the roster being essentially animated Fatheads.

 

Put another way, if I had to wager that the eight (that's the over-30 differential) worst players on the Cubs' roster would figure more positively in their future, including both performance and trade value, compared to the Twins' eight oldest... well, it was time to clean behind the couch cushions anyway.

[ashbury]

He jumped the gun on trash talking, IMO.

 

I disagree. Based on the Babip I saw, he might never have a better chance.

[LaBombo]

I disagree. Based on the Babip I saw, he could never have a better chance.

 

And don't forget the killer strand rate...

[TheLeviathan]

That's why the placeholders are needed until the true talent is ready. People are getting hung up on the ages of the placeholders. You could've artificially dropped the age of the major league roster for 2014 by stocking up on guys who didn't make it out of single-A and are now trying out for the Saints, but it wouldn't accelerate the actual rebuild, because guys with high upside aren't available for the asking. Average age of the present roster may not be meaningless, but it's the wrong metric.

 

The likelihood of it accelerating the rebuild are slim if you have a bunch of AAAA players or failed prospects. (Not your own players, no one wants anyone rushed - just guys that are younger)

 

The likelihood of accelerating the rebuild with Pelfrey, Correia, and even Willingham? Zero.

 

So I lean towards slim as a preference.

[TheLeviathan]

But my (admittedly way, way off-topic by now) response was meant to address a binary post that assigned player age consideration a value of zero.

 

And in keeping with the off-topic-ness, it was also about how the Twins contrast with the Cubs and their ability to lose at an acceptable rate without a third of the roster being essentially animated Fatheads.

 

Put another way, if I had to wager that the eight (that's the over-30 differential) worst players on the Cubs' roster would figure more positively in their future, including both performance and trade value, compared to the Twins' eight oldest... well, it was time to clean behind the couch cushions anyway.

 

And this is another great way to say what I am. The age of the roster during a rebuild does matter and does give a strong indication of the rebuild's progress. I'd also much rather roll the dice with young players with slim chances than gamble on old, mediocre players drumming up trade value.

 

Just a preference and one that I think is very defensible.

[ashbury]

The likelihood of accelerating the rebuild with Pelfrey, Correia, and even Willingham? Zero.

 

So I lean towards slim as a preference.

 

Florimon, Fuld, Presley (Alex, not Ryan two-ss), Albers, Walters, ...? Zero as well, and there is griping about them all the time. "Oh, not them, though. The good ones."

[ashbury]

The age of the roster during a rebuild does matter and does give a strong indication of the rebuild's progress.

 

And I just explained why it doesn't. It's a trailing indicator, not a leading indicator. Just as the unemployment figures tell you too late that a recession is happening. Just as the timer going off tells you the cake is done. Just as the rooster crowing tells you the sun is about to rise. But if you decide these are important to the actual process, and you decide to move the timer up to make the cake bake faster, or somehow trick the rooster into crowing at midnight to make the sun rise, it will lead to disappointment. Because it's the wrong metric. You can sign all the young AAAA and failed prospects you want, it won't accelerate the rebuild.

[LaBombo]

So I lean towards slim as a preference.

 

Prayers for your wrong choice...

 

http://angryblackladychronicles.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/BluesBrothers_026PyxurzABL.jpg

 

 

... buster!

[TheLeviathan]

Florimon, Fuld, Presley (Alex, not Ryan two-ss), Albers, Walters, ...? Zero as well, and there is griping about them all the time. "Oh, not them, though. The good ones."

 

Fuld is in his 30s. The rest I can't speak for when you decide to assign my argument to a hundred other posters and their griping habits as a scarecrow.

[TheLeviathan]

And I just explained why it doesn't. It's a trailing indicator, not a leading indicator. Just as the unemployment figures tell you too late that a recession is happening. Just as the timer going off tells you the cake is done. Just as the rooster crowing tells you the sun is about to rise. But if you decide these are important to the actual process, and you decide to move the timer up to make the cake bake faster, or somehow trick the rooster into crowing at midnight to make the sun rise, it will lead to disappointment. Because it's the wrong metric. You can sign all the young AAAA and failed prospects you want, it won't accelerate the rebuild.

 

It is an indicator, it's not foolproof, especially when the roster is young. Now foolproof? That's a roster getting OLDER during a rebuild - that's a guarantee you haven't turned the corner yet.

 

I would say, given the original premise, that such a thing is not "meaningless".

[drock2190]

Worley got knocked around tonight.

 

Put me in the group who really doesnt care how he does though. Its not like he has top of a rotation potential, hes a #4 at best. In the National league.

[jorgenswest]

I don't care about the age of the place holders. I just don't want to see place holders.

 

Instead of signing Kubel, look for a JD Martinez or Juan Francisco or Yangervis Solarte. Play Parmelee regularly instead of sporadically while Doumit played. Pinto gets a long look as the regular catcher. Hendriks is in the rotation for the year. Achter and Tomkin are in the pen. Don't give away Worley. Sign minor league free agents with some upside of age rather than decline phase players.

 

All of these guys don't need to work out, find one and they are better off in the future.

 

If place holders are a must, the Cubs have been signing place holders to one year contracts and trading them. Better strategy. Flip them and sign another next winter. The Twins have a lot of place holders. If they show any sign of success, they give them extensions and play them until they have no value.

[Brock Beauchamp]

And I just explained why it doesn't. It's a trailing indicator, not a leading indicator. Just as the unemployment figures tell you too late that a recession is happening. Just as the timer going off tells you the cake is done. Just as the rooster crowing tells you the sun is about to rise. But if you decide these are important to the actual process, and you decide to move the timer up to make the cake bake faster, or somehow trick the rooster into crowing at midnight to make the sun rise, it will lead to disappointment. Because it's the wrong metric. You can sign all the young AAAA and failed prospects you want, it won't accelerate the rebuild.

 

To me, it doesn't matter if the Twins are rolling out young players for the sake of young players. On a losing team, I'd prefer to see young players because if a team is going to lose, may as well do it with some upside, as marginal as that upside may be.

 

But the fact is this: the Minnesota Twins will not be a contender until Buxton, Sano, Meyer, May, and Rosario are in MLB.

 

And none of those guys are ready. I thought May was ready and it looked like he'd get the call but he went down with an injury. Meyer scuffled for a couple of weeks, which surely sent his time table back a bit. Hopefully we'll see both of them in Minnesota soon.

 

So ultimately, does it really matter if Correia is pitching when the team feels Meyer isn't yet ready? I'd argue that it really doesn't.... What matters is whether the team is willing to discard Correia the moment they feel Meyer is ready.

[TheLeviathan]

What matters is whether the team is willing to discard Correia the moment they feel Meyer is ready.

 

To the team's credit they have seemed more willing than in the past to do this. Still, when you given the Correias, Pelfreys, Willinghams, etc. 2 or 3 year deals they no longer serve the role of placeholder. Then they become entrenched and you start to make hard decisions about other players rather than discard them.

 

That's how your roster stays an average of nearly 30 even as you're calling up young players.

[Brock Beauchamp]

To the team's credit they have seemed more willing than in the past to do this. Still, when you given the Correias, Pelfreys, Willinghams, etc. 2 or 3 year deals they no longer serve the role of placeholder. Then they become entrenched and you start to make hard decisions about other players rather than discard them.

 

That's how your roster stays an average of nearly 30 even as you're calling up young players.

 

Pelfrey, definitely.

 

Correia and Willingham? Not so much. Both were needed to fill out some pretty awful rosters... I still don't think the Correia signing was a bad one, the problem is that it was their "best" pitching acquisition that offseason.

 

I don't mind older placeholders on a roster that's going to lose... After all, you have to field somebody at all the positions. My only problem is when those old placeholders start blocking legitimate talent... Which we haven't seen much, honestly. A few weeks here, a few weeks there... Not enough for me to really get irritated. Definitely no 2006 Jason Bartlett situations, that's for sure.

[tobi0040]

I disagree. Based on the Babip I saw, he might never have a better chance.

 

Prior to yesterdays start, his LOB % was 87.7% versus a career 73.9%. His BABIP was .222, versus a career .320.

 

The trend of stranding runners and having balls hit right at guys ended his last start (yesterday). 5 IP, 4 ER, 9 H, 3 K's. His ERA jumped from 2.28 to 3.03, BABIP is gravitating closer to the mean (now .270), so is his LOB % (now 78.6%).

 

Again, let's wait until he gets at least 60 IP before we start drawing conclusions.

[tobi0040]

What matters is whether the team is willing to discard Correia the moment they feel Meyer is ready.

 

I guess I am wondering what else Meyer has to do? 89 IP, 3.43 ERA, 103K. His 4.3 BB per 9 is higher than you would like to see, but if you have a guy striking out 26% of the batters I would guess another walk per 9 is not as big of a deal.

 

I did notice he pitched 99 pitches his last outing, maybe they are ramping him up for the big leauges? I hope so. Maybe it is just becuase his next outing will only be an inning in the futures game.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I guess I am wondering what else Meyer has to do? 89 IP, 3.43 ERA, 103K. His 4.3 BB per 9 is higher than you would like to see, but if you have a guy striking out 26% of the batters I would guess another walk per 9 is not as big of a deal.

 

I did notice he pitched 99 pitches his last outing, maybe they are ramping him up for the big leauges? I hope so. Maybe it is just becuase his next outing will only be an inning in the futures game.

 

I think Meyer was on the cusp of being promoted but then he scuffled every other start in June. He'd post a good or decent start and then he'd follow it up with a short, bad start.

 

He has now posted three consecutive good starts so I think he's back to the point where the Twins should consider promoting him.

[tobi0040]

I think Meyer was on the cusp of being promoted but then he scuffled every other start in June. He'd post a good or decent start and then he'd follow it up with a short, bad start.

 

He has now posted three consecutive good starts so I think he's back to the point where the Twins should consider promoting him.

 

I think you are right, but I will take some inconsistency. I mean look at the guys he will likely replace, every single one has been inconsistent this year outside of Hughes. From this point to when he hits his innings limit the goal should be to let him face MLB hitters and see how his stuff matches up and what Gibson-like adjustments he needs to make.

 

I would rather get that out of the way with this year rather than in 2015.

 

He has the most talent at AAA, bar none and his minor numbers look like a video game (3.06 ERA and 10.4K per 9). He will be 25 in spring training next year.

 

And, more importantly. I told my friend to draft him and stash him for his fantasy league and I am getting sick of him giving me a hard time about it!

[Otto von Ballpark]

And none of those guys are ready. I thought May was ready and it looked like he'd get the call but he went down with an injury. Meyer scuffled for a couple of weeks, which surely sent his time table back a bit. Hopefully we'll see both of them in Minnesota soon.

 

Pino was called up before May got injured, and I'm not really convinced it was just fluke bad timing -- they could have easily worked May into the rotation anytime over the prior month. May was on the 40-man and performing great at AAA and they were already futzing around with Deduno -- Pino was just an extension of that, not a one-start patch.

 

Meyer scuffling a couple weeks set back his time table? Every player scuffles for a few weeks here and there -- heck, we've had a few scufflers on the MLB roster most of the season. That really shouldn't throw off an otherwise healthy, successful, not-young prospect's promotion by 2-3 months or more.

 

So ultimately, does it really matter if Correia is pitching when the team feels Meyer isn't yet ready? I'd argue that it really doesn't.... What matters is whether the team is willing to discard Correia the moment they feel Meyer is ready.

 

I for one don't want to see Correia discarded just to open a spot -- we've already got one wide-open rotation spot (Deduno/Pino) and perhaps another with Nolasco's injury. In fact, this is an ideal time to break in a starting prospect, because you've already got guys like Correia under contract and on the roster to fall back on. Heck, they could even go to a 6-man rotation for awhile and they wouldn't have to worry about turns lining up etc. -- if a guy gets hurt or scuffles a bit, just skip his turn, work him out of the pen for a game, etc.

 

Waiting until September or heaven forbid next March to let Meyer and May face MLB hitters seems like a terrible idea. With no idea of whether they can claim a rotation spot next spring, you will either be forced to re-sign Correia/Pelfrey types, or dramatically increase your risk of a 2012-2013 style rotation disaster. And for what gain? We get to take a closer look at Deduno for the third time, or whatever AAAA starter du jour?

[Mike Sixel]

spycake just saved me a lot of time, by typing up what I'd say.

 

Get their feet wet this year. Waiting another year? I don't get the process at all here.

[tobi0040]

Pino was called up before May got injured, and I'm not really convinced it was just fluke bad timing -- they could have easily worked May into the rotation anytime over the prior month. QUOTE]

 

Back to my friend (neighbor too) and me telling him to draft Meyer....this Pino thing is the type of thing I have had to hear every time I go outside. Bail me out Twins. Promote the guy.

[jokin]

Pino was called up before May got injured, and I'm not really convinced it was just fluke bad timing -- they could have easily worked May into the rotation anytime over the prior month.

 

Meyer scuffling a couple weeks set back his time table? Every player scuffles for a few weeks here and there -- heck, we've had a few scufflers on the MLB roster most of the season. That really shouldn't throw off an otherwise healthy, successful, not-young prospect's promotion by 2-3 months or more.

 

 

 

I for one don't want to see Correia discarded just to open a spot -- we've already got one wide-open rotation spot (Deduno/Pino) and perhaps another with Nolasco's injury. In fact, this is an ideal time to break in a starting prospect, because you've already got guys like Correia under contract and on the roster to fall back on. Heck, they could even go to a 6-man rotation for awhile and they wouldn't have to worry about turns lining up etc. -- if a guy gets hurt or scuffles a bit, just skip his turn, work him out of the pen for a game, etc.

 

Waiting until September or heaven forbid next March to let Meyer and May face MLB hitters seems like a terrible idea. With no idea of whether they can claim a rotation spot next spring, you will either be forced to re-sign Correia/Pelfrey types, or dramatically increase your risk of a 2012-2013 style rotation disaster. And for what gain? We get to take a closer look at Deduno for the third time, or whatever AAAA starter du jour?

 

Earlier in the season, Antony set a high bar to exceed and a wide gulf to cross, specifically for Meyer- his comments offered little hope that he would be called up any time soon- barring unforseen events, I posted at the time that it appeared the Twins would be fine if they held off on Meyer until some time in 2015- and now LEN3 seems to confirm that this may be the case. By contrast, for May, the Twins have not offered similar public rationales for why, or why not, he was yet to get the call.

 

But again, actions on the part of the Twins should mean something. The Twins were quick to appoint May to the Futures Game squad when a spot became available (only a day after the initial rosters were set), and this came on the heels of the 120-pitch Trevor May effort on June 16. Before May sustained the injury, it seems likely that he was going to get the first shot at an open spot on the 25-man roster after the All Star break (presumably Correia). Presumably, his timetable has been set back slightly, but I still gotta think he's going to get a "tryout", either in one of Nolasco's starts or for Correia's, once KC is jettisoned.

[Otto von Ballpark]

But again, actions on the part of the Twins should mean something. The Twins were quick to appoint May to the Futures Game squad when a spot became available (only a day after the initial rosters were set), and this came on the heels of the 120-pitch Trevor May effort on June 16. Before May sustained the injury, it seems likely that he was going to get the first shot at an open spot on the 25-man roster after the All Star break (presumably Correia). Presumably, his timetable has been set back slightly, but I still gotta think he's going to get a "tryout", either in one of Nolasco's starts or for Correia's, once KC is jettisoned.

 

Good point on the Futures Game assignment -- I forgot about that. That makes it pretty clear May was ticketed for roughly an August debut at best regardless of his injury. That wouldn't be a terrible timeline (I try to take a long-range view and not quibble about a few weeks in such matters), but still involves a wasted month or two while we do our annual "figure out what we have in these AAAA guys" dance. If May is pushed back further to September or next spring, that would be terrible.

 

The Meyer situation is near that level too -- probably the only saving grace is that yes, I want his innings limited a bit this year. But I'd like to see SOME of those innings at the MLB level -- we're beyond the point where age, arbitration, FA, options, or even AAA performance are much of a factor with this guy anymore. (And at least one roster spot should be freely available after Florimon's recent appearance.)

 

When was the last time a Twins pitcher made his MLB debut in the season-opening starting rotation? Eric Milton? It has been pretty rare. Get their feet wet now so there's a chance they can do it, or at least you can inform your offseason decisions.

[tobi0040]

Good point on the Futures Game assignment -- I forgot about that. That makes it pretty clear May was ticketed for roughly an August debut at best regardless of his injury. That wouldn't be a terrible timeline (I try to take a long-range view and not quibble about a few weeks in such matters), but still involves a wasted month or two while we do our annual "figure out what we have in these AAAA guys" dance. If May is pushed back further to September or next spring, that would be terrible.

 

The Meyer situation is near that level too -- probably the only saving grace is that yes, I want his innings limited a bit this year. But I'd like to see SOME of those innings at the MLB level -- we're beyond the point where age, arbitration, FA, options, or even AAA performance are much of a factor with this guy anymore. (And at least one roster spot should be freely available after Florimon's recent appearance.)

 

When was the last time a Twins pitcher made his MLB debut in the season-opening starting rotation? Eric Milton? It has been pretty rare. Get their feet wet now so there's a chance they can do it, or at least you can inform your offseason decisions.

 

The issue with waiting until next year with Meyer is three fold.

 

1) Based on talent, ceiling, age, numbers, he should be up this year and it is nearly impossible to refute that.

 

2) He is getting his feet wet a year later than he should and when we should be turning the corner, or at least seeing what we have in our top prospects. He could come up in 2015, then go back to work on x and y and you are potentially talking about 2016

 

3) If Meyer is not up this year or gets 1-2 starts in September, he is a guy that is now in competition for a role in 2015 out of spring training. The Twins, IMO would consider pushing him back to June 2015. It would just be 2 months. Any minor injury, slightly higher BB's, struggling in spring training could be used as an excuse to delay him.

[DJL44]

I want Meyer up in September but I'm fine with it being in the bullpen to limit his innings.

[Badsmerf]

The Meyer and may situations are the types of issues I have with the twins promotions. Neither are young and both need to be a part of the next good twins team. Delaying their mlb appearance just delays their whole timetable. Gibson last year is another example. No matter what there is an adjustment period. If you ruin a 25 year old guy by calling him up you have bigger problems. I just hate this approach by the twins. There is no reason to wait this long, especially when you're giving stats top deduno and pino. This is bull****.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I didn't have a problem giving Pino the starts when the call came. May had just pitched that long game and wasn't available, and Meyer wasn't pitching well in AAA. That said, I suspect May is the next guy getting the call for extended action and would be surprised if he's not replacing Pino or Nolaso after the all star break.

 

I don't expect to see Meyer until September, and in a relief role at that. He's on a strict limit, and I think it's in the Twins best interest to let him do that at the minor league level. He's also not on the 40 man. He will have to be added this offseason, so a September move to give him a month of MLB relief work would be wise.