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Is Jorge Lopez Back?


Luke Thompson

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Last year the Minnesota Twins made a much-needed trade to acquire All-Star closer Jorge Lopez. He was having an excellent year when the Twins acquired him for two pitching prospects, Cade Povich and Yennier Cano. Lopez had a 1.68 ERA with 48.1 IP which led him to the All-Star game. The Twin's bullpen was not great, so they decided to make a trade to bring him in to bolster the pen. Lopez’s first two months as a Twin were not great. He had a 4.37 ERA across 23 innings pitched and his walk rate was not good. It is also important to note that Lopez was dealing with some personal stuff as his family suffered greatly after a natural disaster left his hometown destroyed. That could have affected his performance; his head was not in the right place. But it was overall very disappointing to see what we got out of him compared to what we thought we were getting.

Coming off of a disappointing second half in 2022, Lopez looked to rediscover his first-half success. During spring training, Lopez looked much better; he pitched 5.0 innings, and in those innings, his ERA was 0.00. Lopez didn't give up a run and struck out 6. I know that spring training success doesn't always translate into the regular season, but after he struggled last year, it was encouraging to see him pitch well and look good. Coming into the 2023 regular season, Lopez has looked nothing but excellent. His numbers look great and he has pitched in 5 games, tallying 4.2 IP. Lopez has an ERA of 0.00 with 5K's, and he is 1-0 with a save. In the 2022 season, he seemed to lose command and location and would give up hard contact after being ahead in the count. In 2023 Lopez appears to have begun to return to his early 2022 self. He is dotting the zone, staying calm, and getting hitters to swing and miss.

 

* Jorge Lopez 2023 MLB Percentile Rankings

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Lopez also lost his closer role, but it's for the best, as last year when he was with the Twins, he seemed to struggle in high-leverage situations. Lopez has only appeared in the 9th inning or later two times this year and gave up his only hit and run so far. In comparison, Lopez has looked much better when he comes into pitch in the 7th/8th inning. Most of the damage was done in the 10th inning against the Astros with the extra innings runner on 2nd rule. The presence of Johan Duran will be a massive help for him to help relieve the pressure of those big moments.

* Jorge Lopez Per-Inning Splits

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I know that we are only nine games into the season, and that is a small sample size for Lopez, but so far it looks like he is going back to his Baltimore form from the first half of 2022. I hope Lopez can keep up this success for this whole season and keep being an excellent option for Rocco to bring out of the bullpen to get some outs.

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I certainly gave up on him.  His career before 2022 framed my lack of confidence.  But, there is no doubt that it is human nature to perform any job less effectively when personal concerns distract us from maximizing success in any job.

All he has done so far in 2023 is everything that is asked of him.  Yes, it is early.  But it also is encouraging.  

In this case, I love having my opinion being proven wrong!

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Hard to fault him for the run in the tenth, got three pretty soft grounders and got burned on the infield playing in with one out after the first grounder moved the runner to third. Without the runner starting on second that was a 1-2-3 inning. Granted given we're stuck with that stupid rule you probably want a high K rate pitcher to come in which so far Lopez hasn't looked like this year. 

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6 minutes ago, danielp19653 said:

Hard to fault him for the run in the tenth, got three pretty soft grounders and got burned on the infield playing in with one out after the first grounder moved the runner to third. Without the runner starting on second that was a 1-2-3 inning. Granted given we're stuck with that stupid rule you probably want a high K rate pitcher to come in which so far Lopez hasn't looked like this year. 

His K rate is much better now for some reason it didn't have everything updated 

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15 minutes ago, Luke Thompson said:

His K rate is much better now for some reason it didn't have everything updated 

SSS, but López looks very good. He’s been getting the bottom of the order more often than not, but has taken care of business. 
 

I doubt that Duran will be asked to pitch in three straight games, so I would guess he’ll get a few save opportunities. 

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So far he looks like the guy we traded for.  I've said that I consider him the key to our BP.  If he's even 80-90% of what he was for Baltimore last year he and Duran would make up one of the best duo's in baseball.  Add to that how Alcala has looked so far and the dependability of Jax and Theilbar and that's a really good BP.  The only disappointment so far is Moran but I'm not worried about him.  I think he'll settle down and contribute.  

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He’s moving the ball, within the zone, all around the periphery. Good velocity. 3-4 pitches with command. Looks loose.

Hope he can keep having fun and succeeding!

I wanted him moved over winter, am very encouraged after seeing him throw 3 times. 

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His stuff has always been great. After being a starter for so long, his stuff really played up out of the bullpen last year. He just really seemed to tire in August. I think the same can be said of Griffin Jax. He had some struggles late in July and adding Lopez and Fulmer allowed him to get more time between appearances and he returned. 

Those two both are now in their second seasons as full-time relievers, so I think both will be (or at least can be) really good. 

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He's looked great so far. I always felt he'd bounce back, even if he wasn't as purely dominant like he was the first half of 2022. His family situation isn't so drastic now, one supposes, and he's settled in as a Twin after being traded while his family situation was taking place. Further, he's now got a full year under his belt in his bullpen conversion. 

The stuff is great. The potential is there to be great. There's been a couple appearances where he hasn't faced the heart of the order, that being trusted to Duran or Jax, but he's not only done the job, but working on confidence a bit isn't a bad thing either.

I love the first 6 of the pen, fully believing Moran is going to be just fine. I understand and appreciate the last spot being a rotation one in which we will see a number of guys, including Sands. I'm still looking for someone to eventually step forward and replace Duran.

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On 4/11/2023 at 12:02 AM, Seth Stohs said:

His stuff has always been great. After being a starter for so long, his stuff really played up out of the bullpen last year. He just really seemed to tire in August. I think the same can be said of Griffin Jax. He had some struggles late in July and adding Lopez and Fulmer allowed him to get more time between appearances and he returned. 

Those two both are now in their second seasons as full-time relievers, so I think both will be (or at least can be) really good. 

I think much of that late-season fatigue was due to the Twins starters not going deep enough in games.  Hopefully, this year that changes and we have a well-rested pen in the fall.  I love the way Rocco has been using the pen so far.  Well balanced appearances and nobody seems overworked so far.

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On 4/11/2023 at 7:33 PM, DocBauer said:

He's looked great so far. I always felt he'd bounce back, even if he wasn't as purely dominant like he was the first half of 2022. His family situation isn't so drastic now, one supposes, and he's settled in as a Twin after being traded while his family situation was taking place. Further, he's now got a full year under his belt in his bullpen conversion. 

The stuff is great. The potential is there to be great. There's been a couple appearances where he hasn't faced the heart of the order, that being trusted to Duran or Jax, but he's not only done the job, but working on confidence a bit isn't a bad thing either.

I love the first 6 of the pen, fully believing Moran is going to be just fine. I understand and appreciate the last spot being a rotation one in which we will see a number of guys, including Sands. I'm still looking for someone to eventually step forward and replace Duran.

And to add, Lopez also isn't the closer, I think being a setup man is definitely a better role for him. 

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I think Lopez can be a closer, but I do think there is a learning curve.   However I am completely fine where he is slotted now.   I think the Twins wanted him to regain his confidence this spring, and he has done exactly that.   Jorge has regained more of his control and whiff percentage, although 3 strikeout inning will sure help.  We are definitely in the small sample size, but the performance is similar to 2022 beginning.  Which tells me a couple things,  the first is, his performance last year wasn't a fluke.  2.  Is that he likely wore down as the year went on last year which caused possibly a lower arm slot with less movement as the year went on.  I think the Twins and Jorge will be cognizant of the arm level and will continue to work on that.  I also think Jorge will be better prepared to handle a full seasons worth of work.  

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As discussed elsewhere, I think it had a lot more to do with Twins tinkering than fatigue. He threw way more changeups (his worst pitch) especially to right-handers. I don’t believe that was a choice he made. I assume they’re being less micromanaging this year, and his numbers have returned to last years success. 

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On 4/11/2023 at 8:33 PM, DocBauer said:

He's looked great so far. I always felt he'd bounce back, even if he wasn't as purely dominant like he was the first half of 2022. His family situation isn't so drastic now, one supposes, and he's settled in as a Twin after being traded while his family situation was taking place. Further, he's now got a full year under his belt in his bullpen conversion. 

The stuff is great. The potential is there to be great. There's been a couple appearances where he hasn't faced the heart of the order, that being trusted to Duran or Jax, but he's not only done the job, but working on confidence a bit isn't a bad thing either.

I love the first 6 of the pen, fully believing Moran is going to be just fine. I understand and appreciate the last spot being a rotation one in which we will see a number of guys, including Sands. I'm still looking for someone to eventually step forward and replace Duran.

DFoc, what do you mean you are looking forward to someone replacing Duran?

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2 hours ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

DFoc, what do you mean you are looking forward to someone replacing Duran?

Ack! Unfortunate typo or auto correct. I was trying to say Pagan and no clue how Duran's name got there at the end!

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I'm enjoying the results. Sometimes, it just seems like confidence and throwing the ball over the plate early in the count with conviction. I know it's not that simple. 

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He's been getting a ton of weak grounders this year.  Part of his breakout in Baltimore also seems to be related to his highest GB rate in his career, and it's been even higher this year.

I was skeptical pre-season that we would actually see him reach the heights that he did in the first half last year ever again.  Good set-up but not among the league best, kind of like Jax, was my guess.

It's been a little different than last year but he looks great so far.  I don't know that the 10 K/9 is necessarily coming back, given his overall track record.  But given his sinker heavy repertoire, a ground-ball machine with solid swing and miss could be equally successful.

I tend to doubt that the 70% GB rate is sustainable, but if he turns some of them into strikeouts, a few more flyballs probably won't hurt him too much.  The big thing to watch will probably be his walk rate, which has never been particularly great throughout his career.  If he has found a new level of command, I am bullish.

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As others have said, it looks like the Lopez we expected has finally materialized. This may end of being those win-win types of trades for both teams. I think the Orioles will  be happy with Povich, and Cano just got his first save of the year for them, and hasn't allowed an earned run yet so far this season. 

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On 4/25/2023 at 6:02 AM, Doctor Wu said:

As others have said, it looks like the Lopez we expected has finally materialized. This may end of being those win-win types of trades for both teams. I think the Orioles will  be happy with Povich, and Cano just got his first save of the year for them, and hasn't allowed an earned run yet so far this season. 

Cano is having himself a year, so far.

8.2 of no-hit ball

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27 minutes ago, annismark said:

Cano is having himself a year, so far.

8.2 of no-hit ball

Not even any walks!

Wonder if he's gone to a 3-ball count on anybody yet. :)

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I dislike the idea of getting free agent relievers because so much of their success depends on small sample sizes along with the fielding, pitch calling, ballpark and overall compatibility between different teams. That’s why I prefer guys with good measurables and don’t much care about the results with the prior team. 
 

Same holds with mid season trades. I’m not at all surprised that this is working now but didn’t last year. He has good stuff and a year in, he and the team know what best works.

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