Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

40-man roster decisions, part 1: position players


Squirrel

3,149 views

 Share

Twins Video

We’ve had several threads/articles lately about next season … what you think the 2022 lineup will be, who do we want to sign, what are our positions of most need, will certain players have a place on the team next year. All very good discussions. And not too far in the future, we’ll be having discussions on which prospects should be added to the roster. But before we get to all of those, there are larger looming discussions and decisions regarding the 40-man roster … who stays, who goes. When I thought about doing this thread, I ran into a lot of difficulty exactly how to do this. It seemed easy enough initially … who should the Twins jettison? Well, after thinking about it, a lot, hemming and hawing, trying to learn more about the status of individual players (something I am not well-versed in, I fully admit), and after discussing with others what I wanted to discuss, (thank you @ashbury, @Otto von Ballpark and @Brock Beauchamp), I realized the question might not be ‘who do we jettison’, but rather’ Who should we keep?’ I found the question to be, well, daunting. It’s really a big puzzle when it comes down to it. Time is a precious commodity. You want to maximize the time you have of your best prospects/players, so you don’t want to add them before they are ready, so you can capitalize on their best years; and don’t want to jettison a struggling player too soon, only to see them finally figure it out elsewhere. We’ve been down that road, too. Once a player is added, removing them certainly means losing them, if they have any kind of potential, great or small. You want to make sure you’ve really done your due diligence to determine the value you have. So, this 40-man thing is one to be cautious with. In a recent conversation I had with Brock, he said this: “I think of it this way: about 35 spots of the 40-man are locked down with good prospects or MLB veterans. An org might play fast and loose with those final 3-4 spots but they spend A LOT of effort avoiding tampering with that 35 unless they have confidence in what they’re doing.” So … part one of this discussion … position players on the Twins’ 40-man roster … who should the Twins keep? We won’t see these decisions come to fruition all at once. It will happen gradually. I’m sure the Twins have made some decisions already, but others will ‘hang out’ until which time the Twins either feel they have a better replacement, decide to make trades, need the space for prospect additions, or feel they’ve just reached the ‘end of the road’ with them. So … of the listed players, who would you keep? Discuss any reasoning below.

STATUS PLAYER Options FA FA if outrighted?
28-man Luis Arraez 2 in 2026 (arb eligible 2023) YES
28-man Byron Buxton n/a FA in 2023 YES
28-man Jorge Polanco 0 signed through 2023, club options for 2024 and 2025 YES
28-man Josh Donaldson n/a signed through 2023, club option for 2024 YES
28-man Max Kepler n/a signed through 2023, club options for 2024 YES
28-man Mitch Garver 2 FA in 2024 YES
28-man Miguel Sanó n/a signed through 2022, club option for 2023 YES
28-man Nick Gordon 0   YES
28-man Andrelton Simmons n/a At end of season  
28-man Ryan Jeffers 2    
28-man Willians Astudillo 1   YES
28-man Jake Cave 1 FA in 2025, arb eligible 2022 YES
28-man Brent Rooker 2    
         
60IL Kyle Garlick 1   YES
60IL Alex Kirilloff 2    
10IL Rob Refsnyder 0   YES
         
40-man Ben Rortvedt 2    
40-man Drew Maggi 3   YES
40-man Trevor Larnach 2    
40-man Gilberto Celestino 1   YES
         

 

Many thanks to Otto who did this chart for me, and I filled in some of the contract info, and to Brock and Ash for bearing with my endless questions.

 Share

54 Comments


Recommended Comments



Most of those players will likely remain with the team. The people most at risk of losing their 40 man spot:

Simmons - obviously 

Cave - He’s had a tough go of things in 2020 and 2021. It’s time to find someone better, or use his spot for another prospect. 

Astudillo - His “positional flexibility” has been reduced to corner IF/OF spots. Rarely as a catcher anymore. I think Gordon’s performance in September gives him the edge as utility guy. 

Maggi - Just an honorary nomination this year for being a long time minor leaguer. He shouldn’t be considered a short or long term player on the 40 man. 

People that I wouldn’t be surprised if they were jettisoned from the roster or kept are Garlick, Refsnyder, and Rooker. They’re decent depth pieces. 

Link to comment

Yeah ... it's really hard to know where the thinking is. Garlick and Rooker both have options, so I'd say Refsnyder is the odd man out of those three. I'm not sure who provides the most value, maybe none of them, but I can't see them keeping all of them. Simmons is an obvious gone, but ... and I hope not ... but they could re-sign him? But if they do, (but oh man, I hope they don't) likely won't happen immediately, so they can use his roster spot up front and make room again for him later.

They will have to find roster spots for Kirilloff and Garlick (if they keep him) at the end of the season. That is accomplished with Maggi and Simmons gone. I think they keep people on until they have to remove them.

Pitchers will be an interesting discussion. I split this up between position players and pitchers because I just thought it would be too long a list to go through at once, but maybe I should add them in and make this one discussion? And then you start thinking about the rule 5 adds ... so many related parts.

 

Link to comment

I'd suspect Refsnyder has less to do with Garlick and Rooker and more to do with Gordon and Cave as I don't believe the Twins would be willing to put the sluggers into center field to back up Buxton or Celestino if the Twins trade Buxton.

Link to comment
38 minutes ago, Squirrel said:

Yeah ... it's really hard to know where the thinking is. Garlick and Rooker both have options, so I'd say Refsnyder is the odd man out of those three. I'm not sure who provides the most value, maybe none of them, but I can't see them keeping all of them. Simmons is an obvious gone, but ... and I hope not ... but they could re-sign him? But if they do, (but oh man, I hope they don't) likely won't happen immediately, so they can use his roster spot up front and make room again for him later.

They will have to find roster spots for Kirilloff and Garlick (if they keep him) at the end of the season. That is accomplished with Maggi and Simmons gone. I think they keep people on until they have to remove them.

Pitchers will be an interesting discussion. I split this up between position players and pitchers because I just thought it would be too long a list to go through at once, but maybe I should add them in and make this one discussion? And then you start thinking about the rule 5 adds ... so many related parts.

 

It will definitely be interesting how they split the pitchers and position players on the 40 man. As I count, there’s potentially 15-17 spots taken up already. How many are left? Do we need to reserve 20-23 spots for pitchers? 

Link to comment

From the position player side of things, I see the Twins keeping:

  1. Jeffers
  2. Sano
  3. Polanco
  4. Donaldson
  5. Larnarch
  6. Buxton
  7. Kepler
  8. Killeroff
  9. Arraez
  10. Garver
  11. Miranda
  12. Gordon
  13. Rooker
  14. Garlik
  15. Rortvedt
  16. Celestino
  17. Lewis
  18. maybe Astudillo

Full disclosure:  Just edited this list to remove double add of Larnach and add Miranda.  I do think this would be better with pitchers instead of just hitters so we know the number of slots to use.  I would stop at either 35 or 36 and leave room for offseason signings.

 

Link to comment
20 minutes ago, Brandon said:

From the position player side of things, I see the Twins keeping:

  1. Jeffers
  2. Sano
  3. Polanco
  4. Donaldson
  5. Larnarch
  6. Buxton
  7. Kepler
  8. Larnach
  9. Arraez
  10. Garver
  11. Killeroff
  12. Gordon
  13. Rooker
  14. Garlik
  15. Rortvedt
  16. Celestino
  17. Lewis
  18. maybe Astudillo

 

Lewis isn't on the 40-man yet, but he will need to be added.

Link to comment
38 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

It will definitely be interesting how they split the pitchers and position players on the 40 man. As I count, there’s potentially 15-17 spots taken up already. How many are left? Do we need to reserve 20-23 spots for pitchers? 

I don't even know ... do teams keep to a certain split? 

Link to comment
8 hours ago, Brandon said:

From the position player side of things, I see the Twins keeping:

  1. Jeffers
  2. Sano
  3. Polanco
  4. Donaldson
  5. Larnarch
  6. Buxton
  7. Kepler
  8. Larnach
  9. Arraez
  10. Garver
  11. Killeroff
  12. Gordon
  13. Rooker
  14. Garlik
  15. Rortvedt
  16. Celestino
  17. Lewis
  18. maybe Astudillo

 

Larnach is listed twice in the list above. If we are adding Lewis, another certain add is Miranda, correct? I think Garlick is let go and the Twins will shop Rooker pretty hard. I could see the scenario for both Astudillo and Garlick where they are taken off the 40-man, but offered minor league deals with spring training invites. 

Link to comment
32 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

Larnach is listed twice in the list above. If we are adding Lewis, another certain add is Miranda, correct? I think Garlick is let go and the Twins will shop Rooker pretty hard. I could see the scenario for both Astudillo and Garlick where they are taken off the 40-man, but offered minor league deals with spring training invites. 

What about Refsnyder?

Prospect additions will be yet another discussion and component of all of this. Part of my thinking was ... you can't just jettison players. it's more complicated than that. You really have to decide who to keep and who is expendable. And, as I said (I think I said), we won't see removals come all at once and/or immediately. They will remove people when they absolutely have to. Garlick being on the 60-day IL ... that decision will come at the end of the season. They will have to either make room for him or let him go. I could see with both Garlick and Refsnyder being offered minor league deals.

In the end ... this exercise show me just how little I know and just how much I should never be in charge of such decisions :) 

Link to comment

Given how this season has gone and the way the roster is built, I wouldn't hesitate to clean house in the outfield. I'd drop Garlick, Refsnyder, Cave, Astudillo, and Rooker. I'd keep Gordon because I think he has real potential as a 10/11 man and he's actually kind of key to my outfield plans...

If Gordon is a legit CF backup, maybe I keep a right-handed bat like Refsnyder or Rooker (I lean toward Refsnyder due to the glove but Rooker's bat is far more potent). If Gordon is not a legit backup CF, I ditch all the corner guys and go sign a competent defensive backup CF for a million bucks.

Basically, it's time to move on from no-position corner guys taking up well over half the team's positional roster space. This team needs more balance than it has had in the past and that means sacrificing a little offense for defensive competency on the bench.

Link to comment
23 minutes ago, Squirrel said:

What about Refsnyder?

Prospect additions will be yet another discussion and component of all of this. Part of my thinking was ... you can't just jettison players. it's more complicated than that. You really have to decide who to keep and who is expendable. And, as I said (I think I said), we won't see removals come all at once and/or immediately. They will remove people when they absolutely have to. Garlick being on the 60-day IL ... that decision will come at the end of the season. They will have to either make room for him or let him go. I could see with both Garlick and Refsnyder being offered minor league deals.

In the end ... this exercise show me just how little I know and just how much I should never be in charge of such decisions :) 

I think Refsnyder is a certain drop. He has no minor league options,  did not even hit at replacement level, he's no longer considered an infield option and he's 30. Yes, he hit for a couple weeks, but that appears to be an aberration. If the team can sign him to a minor league contract, he could try his luck in St. Paul again and see if the injuries pile up as they did this year. 

I haven't mentioned Cave either. He's a capable outfielder, but his hit tool seems broken. To be a backup outfielder who would be penciled in for occasional starts on a corner, you have to be somewhat of a threat with the bat and Cave has hit worse than a backup catcher. 

Link to comment
1 hour ago, Squirrel said:

...In the end ... this exercise show me just how little I know and just how much I should never be in charge of such decisions :) 

There are just a lot of moving pieces. These exercises are tough for anybody :) 

Link to comment

I find it impossible to discuss the full list of drops without knowing the full list of "need to protect from the Rule V" You have the obvious drops and you have the fringe. Well, if you have to add x number of players, you need to drop enough to make room. This is the difference maker for the Garlicks, Astudillos, Gordon's of the world.

Link to comment
2 hours ago, stringer bell said:

Larnach is listed twice in the list above. If we are adding Lewis, another certain add is Miranda, correct? I think Garlick is let go and the Twins will shop Rooker pretty hard. I could see the scenario for both Astudillo and Garlick where they are taken off the 40-man, but offered minor league deals with spring training invites. 

correct.  I thought i did add Miranda too it.  How I added Larnach twice is beyond me.

Link to comment
1 hour ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Given how this season has gone and the way the roster is built, I wouldn't hesitate to clean house in the outfield. I'd drop Garlick, Refsnyder, Cave, Astudillo, and Rooker. I'd keep Gordon because I think he has real potential as a 10/11 man and he's actually kind of key to my outfield plans...

If Gordon is a legit CF backup, maybe I keep a right-handed bat like Refsnyder or Rooker (I lean toward Refsnyder due to the glove but Rooker's bat is far more potent). If Gordon is not a legit backup CF, I ditch all the corner guys and go sign a competent defensive backup CF for a million bucks.

Basically, it's time to move on from no-position corner guys taking up well over half the team's positional roster space. This team needs more balance than it has had in the past and that means sacrificing a little offense for defensive competency on the bench.

Rooker has options.  You keep him for depth in AAA in case of injury.  He can be a 1B, DH, RF

Link to comment

I just listened to the Rand podcast, and the bit had Phil Miller on as a guest. Both thought that 2022 was a throw away year, which I have to agree. I cannot see the Twins with a winning record. Also, both suggested that Polanco is moved back to SS, and use as a bridge to Lewis. That would allow Arraez to move to 2B, and allow Gordon to be utility. "Gleeman and the Geek" really do not like Nick. Any thoughts?

Obviously, pitching is the main concern for next year. I have to believe that in the Twins' front office, most talks revolve around picking up pitching. Would you take a chance on Bundy, and Gausman? And what would they cost? Bring back Pineda, and his 120 innings per year may economically be the right choice. The Minor leaguers may be another year away. Ober and Ryan should be penciled in.

 

Link to comment
23 minutes ago, Brandon said:

Rooker has options.  You keep him for depth in AAA in case of injury.  He can be a 1B, DH, RF

I know he has options, I'm saying I don't reserve a 40-man spot for him.

If he can sneak through waivers, sure, keep him... but I'm not dedicating a spot for him at this point.

Link to comment
11 minutes ago, dennistwinsfever2 said:

I just listened to the Rand podcast, and the bit had Phil Miller on as a guest. Both thought that 2022 was a throw away year, which I have to agree. I cannot see the Twins with a winning record. Also, both suggested that Polanco is moved back to SS, and use as a bridge to Lewis. That would allow Arraez to move to 2B, and allow Gordon to be utility. "Gleeman and the Geek" really do not like Nick. Any thoughts?

I see almost a zero percent chance of the Twins risking Polanco's health and offensive production by moving him back to short, a position he was bad at in 2019 before injuries and age set in.

Gleeman & the Geek don't dislike Gordon, not at all. They simply don't have faith in him as a starting shortstop (or probably even a starter anywhere) and for good reason. He hasn't shown either the long-term hitting proficiency to be a starter or the ability to play a competent shortstop in Major League Baseball. Scouting reports have been skeptical of his ability to stick at short since draft day and they haven't improved since then. For right or wrong, it's quite apparent this front office does not view Nick Gordon as a starting shortstop.

Link to comment
34 minutes ago, goulik said:

I find it impossible to discuss the full list of drops without knowing the full list of "need to protect from the Rule V" You have the obvious drops and you have the fringe. Well, if you have to add x number of players, you need to drop enough to make room. This is the difference maker for the Garlicks, Astudillos, Gordon's of the world.

Here’s a list of rule 5 adds and fringe adds courtesy of @Danchat

As far as position players go, Miranda and Lewis are easy adds. 

Link to comment

I think there’s 0% chance Refsnyder is on the 40 man at the start of next year. I think/hope Rooker is traded, which allows us to keep Cave, and Garlick. Maybe Cave is removed and offered a MiLB contract. Garlick is a competent CF backup for a few games, and if Buck is out for an extended period of time Celistino looked legit at AAA. As for Astudillo, I could see it going either way. If it’s a retool year, I think he stays but if they try to compete unfortunately I think he goes. I also think there’s a good chance Kepler gets traded, which would allow another outfielder to stay.

Link to comment
11 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I see almost a zero percent chance of the Twins risking Polanco's health and offensive production by moving him back to short, a position he was bad at in 2019 before injuries and age set in.

Gleeman & the Geek don't dislike Gordon, not at all. They simply don't have faith in him as a starting shortstop (or probably even a starter anywhere) and for good reason. He hasn't shown either the long-term hitting proficiency to be a starter or the ability to play a competent shortstop in Major League Baseball. Scouting reports have been skeptical of his ability to stick at short since draft day and they haven't improved since then. For right or wrong, it's quite apparent this front office does not view Nick Gordon as a starting shortstop.

I see Gordon as a .270 / .310 / .380 type of hitter.  I don't think he could pay SS more then as a utility player and even then he is stretched.  He seems solid in the OF to me as a back up.  He has speed.  He can also play in the IF.  He is an ideal back up player in my book.  He is a AAAA player but not like the traditional AAAA player and that makes him a back up.  He is like 85-90% across the board with major league speed.  He can also regress quickly from his current talent level and that will always be worrisome.  He doesn't have much of a ceiling beyond this.  

Gordon had a nice run.  but so did refsnyder.  Lets see if Gordon can do that again next year.  He has definitely earned the chance to show he is a good back up player.  

Link to comment
Just now, Brandon said:

I see Gordon as a .270 / .310 / .380 type of hitter.  I don't think he could pay SS more then as a utility player and even then he is stretched.  He seems solid in the OF to me as a back up.  He has speed.  He can also play in the IF.  He is an ideal back up player in my book.  He is a AAAA player but not like the traditional AAAA player and that makes him a back up.  He is like 85-90% across the board with major league speed.  He can also regress quickly from his current talent level and that will always be worrisome.  He doesn't have much of a ceiling beyond this.  

Gordon had a nice run.  but so did refsnyder.  Lets see if Gordon can do that again next year.  He has definitely earned the chance to show he is a good back up player.  

I agree with everything said here. That's pretty much how I view Gordon as well.

Link to comment
6 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I agree with everything said here. That's pretty much how I view Gordon as well.

Such a weird feeling.  Someone agrees with me.

Link to comment
1 hour ago, goulik said:

I find it impossible to discuss the full list of drops without knowing the full list of "need to protect from the Rule V" You have the obvious drops and you have the fringe. Well, if you have to add x number of players, you need to drop enough to make room. This is the difference maker for the Garlicks, Astudillos, Gordon's of the world.

Right. Which is why I went from 'Oh, this is easy' to ... okay, really, really NOT. Heh. My hunch is a few will be released immediately at the end of the season because we have several players on the 60-day IL that room will need to be made for them. And then when rule 5 comes around, this becomes yet another discussion. I was trying to be 'efficient' by sorting it into parts, but maybe we should have put EVERYTHING in here at once?

That said ... haven't seen you around lately! Glad to have you back and hope you are well!

Link to comment

In general, 40 man roster split is 18 position players, 22 pitchers but not set in stone. 13 position players on active roster so not a lot of extra spots for others. FYI, Twins, even with all there injuries, only played 23 position players this year, Blankenhorn and Lin 1 game each, and Riddle 4 games. So only 20 that played significant time. 34 different pitchers used by Twins this year. The five extra spots usually include a third catcher, MIF, and OF that is able to play CF, and the 2 best prospects that are rule 5 eligible. I would go with Rortvedt, Palacios, Celestino, Lewis, and Miranda. Would prefer Miranda on opening day roster, but see Twins playing service time game. 13 on active roster-Garver, Jeffers, Sano, Polanco, FA SS, Donaldson, Arraez, Kirilloff, Kepler, Buxton, Larnach, Gordon, Refsynder. 

Link to comment

Guest
Add a comment...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
×
×
  • Create New...