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Eris

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Everything posted by Eris

  1. Eris
    There are multiple avenues to do trades. Acquiring expiring contracts at the deadline vs acquiring pitchers that are not on expiring contracts and therefore pay a higher price in terms of prospects. If the FO makes a good trade the team is helped for the next seasons and a bad trade is more painful. Trading for pitchers on expiring contracts would be a lower risk strategy. The Twins were not the only team that made deadline acquisitions for pitchers that didn’t work out. The Yankees trade for Frankie Montas and subsequent unloading of Jordan Montgomery were also trades that did not work out for the Yankees.
  2. Eris
    It wasn’t just the trade deadline that was problematic for the FO. The trade for Paddock and Pagán is was necessitated the trade deadline deals. The Twins were buyers when they should have been sellers. Finishing 14 games behind the Guardians and 8 games out of the wild card was not a little miss by the FO.
  3. Eris
    I tend to agree with you. Correa re-aggravated his foot injury from the previous week and maybe being placed on the IL would be helpful.
  4. Eris
    Fangraphs with an article on Spencer Steer. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/cincinnatis-spencer-steer-believes-in-contact-and-backspinning-line-drives/
  5. Eris
    This has a chance to go down as the worst trade in franchise history which was the Delmon Young for Bartlett and Garza, which was about -20 war. Steer and CES should be able to put up 10 WAR or so each. I am glad for Steer that he is making the most of his opportunity. What makes the trade a failure is the Mahle did not contribute down the stretch last year. https://puckettspond.com/2020/06/01/minnesota-twins-ranking-10-worst-trades/
  6. Eris
    Dugas et al.44 reviewed baseball players who had undergone surgical ACL reconstruction across all levels of competitive play, finding a majority of ACL tears to occur during fielding (68%), or base running (29%), with outfielders at the greatest positional risk. From. https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/20503121221076369#:~:text=Dugas et al.&text=reviewed baseball players who had,at the greatest positional risk. Several notes study mentions that there are a limited number of ACL tears in baseball, which may have an affect on data analysis. Players with ACL reconstruction play on average 20% less than non injured equivalent Also, the FDA approved in 2021 a new procedure for ACL repair. Google “BEAR ACL repair” and you will plenty of information.
  7. Eris
    The problem for the Twins becomes one of value. Buxton accumulated 4 fWAR last year. Prorated to 162 games, at his current rate, Buxton will not match last years WAR (because DH is assigned a negative defensive value). I don’t really understand the logic behind not having Buxton in CF. First, he injured his knee sliding into second last year. Second, Buxton is a difference maker playing CF. The best solution would seem to be to train Buxton not to crash into outfield walls with his team up by 8 runs.
  8. Eris
    I am seldom bothered by roster moves. I find sending Wallner down to somewhat troubling. At a time when the Twins are reaching new lows in offensive ineptitude and leading the league in SO, they send down the one batter who has out performed every one else on the team since recalled on May 23. Since then, Wallner has had 0 SO, walked 2 times, has a WRC+ of 371, OPS OF 1.714, WPA+ = .67, WPA- = 0.04. (Data is from Fangraphs) While I don’t expect Wallner to maintain this pace, it would have been relatively easy to find roster space for Wallner for the Houston series. For example put Gallo on the IL because of his leg injury. Taylor may also benefit from being on the IL because of his back. With Kepler coming back, Wallner could DH the Houston series while giving Buxton sometime to clear his head.
  9. Eris
    Not liking the Wallner transaction. He is one of the few players who stepped upto the plate against the Blue Jays and actually did the job.
  10. Eris
    WSJ (May 27-28)has a back page story on how the Orioles fixed Yennier Cano. Short summary is they identified mechanical flaws in his delivery and have improved his % strikes. First pitch strike % in 2022 was 58%, it is now 68%. The mechanical flaws cited in the article are: his front shoulder would fly open, tinkered with grips and threw from multiple arm slots. This should be alarming for Twins fans. Cano goes Orioles and significantly improves. Lopez to the Twins with massive regression and we have not seen the center piece of the trade pitching in the majors yet.
  11. Eris
    I think, unfortunately, with the Bomba Squad in 2019, the Twins emphasized home runs and power and have put together a team that as a result are among the leaders in % of runs scored via HR. With that comes more SO and a collection of players who seem incapable of playing small ball. Spencer Steer had 2 hits and 2 RBIs today. His K% is 21.3 There are 14 players for the Twins this year that have a greater K%. Kepler, Wallner, Miranda, and Gordon are lowerer.
  12. Eris
    Injuries contributed a lot to Hick’s last several years of underperformance. However, he has been brutal this year in the OF, missing balls that should have been easy outs. One of the effects of trading Hicks is that Buxton was called up before he was able to be effective at the MLB level.
  13. Eris
    Steven Kwan, Guardians left fielder and Larnach’s teammate at Oregon, was drafted in the 5th round of the 2018 draft and has accumulated 4.8 WAR. Data is from Fangraphs.
  14. Eris
    The Twins paid a premium for an all star closer to help secure a playoff spot. He fell apart when he got here and did not help the Twins down the stretch. The Twins will lose this trade.
  15. Eris
    Sorry. No. The Twins gave up good prospects for a front line pitcher the help down the stretch last year and he was put on the DL after 2 starts. Mahle has nothing this year. Did the Twins need pitching help last year. Yes. But trade imploded from the start. The Twins are small market team. The consequences of being wrong on trades like this are harder for the Twins to recover from than some of the large market teams.
  16. Eris
    I don’t think a hitting coach is responsible for players swinging at pitches a foot out of the strike zone. It would be interesting to learn how Brent Rooker was able to resurrect his MLB career by doubling his walks and significantly reducing his strike outs. This transformation was over one offseason. He is an example of what is possible with improved plate discipline. edited to add. Brent Rooker had minor league seasons with BB near 14%. He is at career lows with SO even compared to his stats in the minors.
  17. Eris
    Miranda should be sent down and let Farmer play third until Royce Lewis is ready. At least the team and fans could have the expectation of above average defense at third. The Twins just have too many right handed bats who aren’t getting the job done. Miranda, Correa, and Solano. It is hard to win when a third of the lineup isn’t getting the job done.
  18. Eris
    I used 0.250 because the league average is 0.247. A better approach would be to use WRC+ but the point would have been the same in that there are a lot of Twins hitters who are underperforming league averages. Some of these by a substantial amount https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=10&type=8&season=2023&month=0&season1=2023&ind=0&team=8&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2023-01-01&enddate=2023-12-31&sort=17,d
  19. Eris
    The Twins lineup in their 12 inning win against the White Sox today (including substitutions) featured 9 players with a batting average below 0.250. While I don’t know if Alex Kirilloff will recover from his injuries, I find it hard to believe that a lineup this anemic can not find room for some who was once considered one of the best hitting prospects in Twins minor league system. As mentioned in the article, he can get at bats playing LF, RF, 1B and DH. Rotate until there is a better solution. By comparison, the Rays had 3 players in their lineup today with a batting average less than 0.260. The White Sox had 5 players with a BA less that 0.250.
  20. Eris
    “bringing Correa to the plate. The Twins superstar, however, struck out swinging, and the game was over” On a ball that was at least a foot off the plate Almost painful to watch the poor plate discipline from a lot of the Twins batters Also Jeffers got thrown out at 3rd base with 2 outs on boneheaded base running. The Twins challenged and lost. They really needed the lost challenge later when Castro was called out stealing 2B but was really safe
  21. Eris
    Curious as to whether or not the Twins could have played the game under protest. It was no longer a judgment call as to if he had sticky stuff on his gloves. It was noticed by the umps who presumably deemed this incidental (this part is a judgment call) and asked him to remove it. He did not comply (perhaps this non-compliance is also considered an umpire judgment call). In any event, playing the game under protest would have forced the league to explain why the Yankee pitcher got special treatment, not once but twice. Likely the protest would have been denied but it would have placed a greater spotlight on the issue.
  22. Eris
    Can someone comment on the quality of defense Emmanuel Rodriguez provides in CF. Is he a legit MLB defensive CF.
  23. Eris
    Not sure I agree with the bit about Gallo playing excellent defense. Maybe at 1B. With his brief stint in RF it seems that Gallo could not catch 2 balls that Kepler would have made look easy. Gallo has a cannon. Maybe we are spoiled by watching Kepler all these years. And they are both on the DL.
  24. Eris
    The article is probably quite on. I probably disagree the most with the assessment of Kenta Maeda. Maeda has always been a good pitcher and I see no reason why he will not come back. Part of this is wishful thinking but expect him to get stronger as the season progresses. Mahle. I cringe at what the Twins gave up for him.
  25. Eris
    I like the idea of robo umps as missed balls or strikes affect the outcome of the game. Perhaps an intermediate solution would be to get rid of or prevent umpires behind home plate who can not correctly call balls and strikes above a certain grade level. The later will never happen so it’s robo umpires. With regards to the future value of catchers, the ability to call a good game is still critical. This is harder to determine statistically, but pitchers know. More emphasis will also be placed on caught or preventing stealing. Maybe a pitcher catcher combo that allows 80 % or higher stolen base percentage should not be used.
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