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Eris

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Everything posted by Eris

  1. Eris
    There are at least 2 scenarios in which Snell would exercise his option. Both of these would be undesirable from an acquiring teams standpoint especially if they are on a budget. 1 if he gets hurt, 2 if he is ineffective. I don’t know if it is possible to structure a trade contract to take into consideration a future unknown event, such as if Snell exercises his option then the Giants will send the Twins 30 million dollars. What level prospect would the Giants want for a guarantee of such sums of money. Perhaps someone who knows more about MLB trade rules could articulate what is allowed under such a scenario.
  2. Eris
    Blake Snell has a complicated contract which makes it difficult to agree on trade valuation. He has an opt out after this season and a player option after 2025. Is the acquiring team getting a 2 -3 month rental or a player under contract for 1.5 to 2.5 seasons.
  3. Eris
    At the time of the trade Drew Gilbert , Astros top prospect was ranked 68 overall. A similar trade would be Festa or Keaschall and a lesser prospect.
  4. Eris
    Going all-in is a poor idea for any team as winning in the playoffs often comes down to 1 play made or not made or 1 key at bat with the bases loaded. The objective at trade deadline is to make wise trades that help with the current season but don’t sacrifice the future. Steve Pearce was the World Series 2018 MVP https://www.mlb.com/news/red-sox-acquire-steve-pearce-from-blue-jays-c283420492
  5. Eris
    The challenge with this years trade deadline is that approximately 20-22 teams are playoff contenders. It is definitely a sellers market and impact players will cost a premium. Of the players mentioned only Wallner would return an impact player.
  6. Eris
    I am expecting the Mets to be buyers. NY is a very unforgiving market and fans will not take kindly to selling when their team is still in the race.
  7. Eris
    I agree with you on this. I don’t know enough about advanced statistics to understand how defensive positioning factors into these metrics. For example, hitting a line drive directly at an outfielder for an out should count less than hitting the same line drive where an outfielder is not positioned. StatCast captures the degree of difficulty needed for a player to make an out. It should in theory be possible to adjust the stats to account for this (if it is not already incorporated). I believe that for a number of years Max Kepler was a top the lists of unlucky hitters.
  8. Eris
    It is nice to see productivity and success (and records) from players who are not striking out a lot. There was a TD article about a week ago on this.
  9. Eris
    Remembering from past years, Rod Carew had many different batting approaches which would be varied depending on the pitcher. I think a lot of this is on training and the expected outcome, i.e. getting a hit vs a home run.
  10. Eris
    Based on performance, it may have taken Larnach 2 years to recover from his groin injury. Although there are other factors such as skills and pitch selection that make drawing a conclusion difficult I think it is generally understood that people who tear their ACL are at greater risk for additional injuries. This is an interesting article that uses fantasy points to assess performance. Seems that there should be more than 15 mlb players. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10078163/
  11. Eris
    I agree with you about the K% and I dislike the fixation on power that leads teams to overlook Ks. If Wallner can produce like he did last year, his K% will not matter. Consistency of performance will matter.
  12. Eris
    It is an excellent article. I think the most important point is that it is difficult to judge Larnach and Miranda’s when they were hurt.
  13. Eris
    Part of the player alignment is Martin’s poor defensive performance. He has some of the worst defensive metrics of any Twins player (along with Kirilloff) this year. Not sure if this is his true capability or that he was put in positions were he lacked experience. Nothing about his prospect write ups indicated he would be this poor on defense.
  14. Eris
    If Kepler is traded the acquiring team can not make a QO and therefore will not receive any compensation draft pick should he leave via free agency. Therefore, the Twins probably want trade value equal to the compensation pick, which might be hard to get.
  15. Eris
    Steven Kwan, the Guardians version of Luiz Arraez—except he can play defense—was drafted in the 5th round because he didn’t hit for power. By fWAR, he would be the best player on the Twins currently, has WRC+ of 182.
  16. Eris
    On the proposed rule change. If implemented it should be conditional on where the batter is within the batters box. If feet are close to the outside of the batters box then yes. If feet are close to the inside part of the batters box then no. One reason players are able to pull outside pitches is that they are crowding the inside part of the plate. There have been players who have been hit by balls that are almost strikes.
  17. Eris
    “If Margot and Farmer played better this year”. And Wallner, Buxton, Julien and Kirilloff.
  18. Eris
    This is a very good article. Just curious how they calculate a run or lack thereof because of a missed call. Are they just taking the MLB average expected run differential between 2 outcomes.
  19. Eris
    https://www.fangraphs.com/players/byron-buxton/14161/heat-maps?position=OF&ss=2024-03-28&se=2024-06-05&type=0&hand=all&count=a,2&blur=1&grid=10&view=bat&pitch=&season=all&data= If I have done this correctly this should display Buxton’s 2 strike heat map. But I don’t know how to fully interpret the heat map other than to indicate that he is being pitched down and away. I couldn’t find a legend and don’t understand the meaning behind the different shades of red and blue.
  20. Eris
    I don’t think it is that simple, Buxton could be pulling the ball because he is anticipating (i.e., guessing) fastball and starts his swing earlier thereby making him very susceptible to sliders and other off speed pitches.
  21. Eris
    Buxton has always had a long swing. Early efforts to rework his swing were not successful. When he pulls a pitch of the outside part of the plate, I wonder if this is what the Twins are coaching or is it just Buxton. Absent a change in his hitting approach—and he is going in the wrong direction—this is what we can expect from Buxton going forward. 58% pull rate. That is Brian Dozier territory and he flamed out quickly. He doesn’t need to look to the Yankees to find hitting success. Max Kepler is a much better hitter now that he has stopped trying to pull every pitch into the bleachers.
  22. Eris
    Have the Twins won a series against a team with a winning record this year. I don’t think so. They are several position players away from being a playoff caliber team. Maybe internally some players will step up like last year. As currently constructed the team is more than one starting pitcher away from winning a playoff series and therefore I would be hesitant to make a deadline trade for a starting pitcher.
  23. Eris
    A failed starter turned reliever who is lights out for the first half of the season and whom the selling team wants half of the farm. I have seen this before. Oakland will win this trade just like Baltimore did in 2022.
  24. Eris
    https://nypost.com/2024/05/27/sports/umpire-angel-hernandez-set-to-retire-immediately-from-mlb/
  25. Eris
    This comment isn’t necessarily about Julian but about the Twins hitting in general. I have seen this year too many occasions when hitters would not swing at a fastball right down the middle of the plate. It seems that they are being coached to look for a certain pitch in a specific location that they can drive and if it is not that they let it go. I have often wondered how many times in his career Ted Williams did not swing at a fastball in the heart of the hitting zone.
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