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JD-TWINS

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  1. JD-TWINS
    Fresh perspective on DH: 20 players in MLB had more than 30 HR in 2022 - Buxton had 28 in 96 games played. He’s on pace for 138 games this year. His current 5 HR project to 29 over rest of games. With Buxton & Joey Gallo on the roster we will have 2 of Top 20 HR guys in the league. Again, don’t see a problem.
  2. JD-TWINS
    Keeping Duran in a routine at work. He’s got a personal day today and can’t pitch. He’ll be fine for Saturday afternoon. Rocco’s not an idiot.
  3. JD-TWINS
    Love to see Sanity represented!!
  4. JD-TWINS
    Two of the top 6 hitters on the team are the guys that have been playing 1B in ‘23………our best potential hitter in our system that’s currently not on 26 man roster is Kiriloff - first baseman. His stats/metrics for this year are at or slightly better than career & he projects to hit 30 HR. Don’t see a problem. Last & arguably the most important stat is that he’s playing 88% of games - his average games played over 7 of his 8 seasons has been 46% of the time. Not getting any value with him sitting on the IL.
  5. JD-TWINS
    It’s April 28. He’s going to play 30 games or so in CF through the remainder of the season. We have a Gold Glove CF playing nearly every day now. His stats this year are nearly identical to his career stat line after 8 seasons. Do we really think that if he played CF he would be surpassing the norm for his first EIGHT seasons? He’s stolen 36 bases in the past 5 seasons……14 of those were in one year. That’s an average of 4.5 steals per year in the other 4 seasons. As much as people wish think his speed = base stealer, it’s never been real. Career ………. 2023 BA .244. ……….. .244 OBP .301 ……….. .305 Slg.% .473. ………. .488 OPS. .774. ………. .794 5 HR at this point projects to 29 HR for season. Last year he played 92 games & hit 28 HR……….he projects to play 85% of games this year or 138 games. I like his chances to hit 30 plus HR. What’s the problem? Oh btw, he’s played 23 of 26 games = 88% of games…………outside of 2017 season, he’s averaged 46% of the games per season over 7 seasons. Gotta do something different!! Are we getting our money’s worth if he steals 1 base per month - plays 13 games per month, 10 in CF & 3 at DH - and sits out 88 games injured - that’s his history. If he gets hot for 5-8 days at a time for 3 stints during the year it’s worth watching him sit in the dugout when we are in the field. He’s been in the line-up 9 of 10 games so far in 2023 & that’s his value!
  6. JD-TWINS
    Maeda is coming off Tommy John……..Mahle was shutdown twice last year in MN & once in Cincinnati. These are the two guys - if we didn’t anticipate potential problems with them going into ‘23 we’re pretty naive. The entire past 3-5 months has been a constant debate about Ober v. Maeda as part of the rotation. Correa was Ice Cold last year in April & hit around .280 for the year. Not great that he’s not been contributing a bunch but we’re winning and CC will get much better. No contract concerns. April 28th.
  7. JD-TWINS
    Agreed, common sense move seems to be IL for both Maeda & Mahle. It’s a 3-4 week thing for Maeda and a single missed start for Mahle. Be conservative early & let our depth help! Last year Mahle had “shoulder fatigue” in Cinti in July & then again in September in MN. This elbow thing is new & can’t act like it doesn’t matter. Miranda & Keppler are coming around every couple games ………if we start getting balance up & down line-up………..as CC eventually warms up, we’re pretty good! Have 6 - 6 - 6 & 7 runs per game over the last 4 contests.
  8. JD-TWINS
    I agree - in July somebody is going to get traded and I can’t imagine it would be Lewis or Lee. That said, Julien - Martin are prime options along with vets we can’t fit on 26 man, guys like Kepler - Gordon - Solano…..,1 or 2 of them. If Julien only plays 2B in minors, his potential of sticking with Twins diminishes a bunch. It’s possible, maybe not likely, that Polanco is still at 2B in ‘24. If not, a switch hitting replacement in Lee has a great shot. Lewis will be playing some back-up SS and a fair amount at 3B, as well as possibly being the starting 2B if Miranda settles in at 3B & with the bat. Farmer’s a solid experienced guy who is under contract for ‘24. A lack of position flexibility will really limit Julien v. his young, up & coming, competition!
  9. JD-TWINS
    Gordon (once he proves he’s remotely capable at the plate) is the answer, along with Gallo, in CF v. RH pitching (75-80% of the time). Taylor has filled in great, but he’s a defensive specialist and a platoon RH bat against LH pitching. I think Buxton starts 30-40 games in CF May - September. Larnach & Gallo & Kepler can rotate through corner OF spots. Again, Larnach is on pace to have 110RBI & he currently occupies Kiriloff’s spot in the roster. You are absolutely right, Kiriloff needs to show more in St. Paul before we start DFAing anyone. (i.e. Solano or Gordon)
  10. JD-TWINS
    Joey playing great 1B to date……..Gold Glove outfielder…way bigger than his arm. Farmer will displace Castro on 26 man sometime in May. Gordon hit .289 - 27 doubles - 8 HR after May 1 in ‘22……..he’s not going anywhere with the ability to play LF - CF - 2B - SS. No options to send down. Larnach is the Team leader in RBI & he projects to 110 RBI for the season - he currently has Kiriloff’s roster spot on the 26 man. The only possibility, and the Team is going to be very reluctant to act on this, is to DFA Solano. We have Farmer play 3B about 30% of the time so Miranda can play 1B v. LH pitching & to give Miranda a few days off. Kiriloff is at 1B & Gallo rotates though CF - RF & rests Kiriloff as needed at 1B. I’m sure they’ll drag their feet to act as long as possible if we keep winning - can maybe get to July & determine which piece (Gordon - Solano - Kepler) can be traded along with a prospect. In a short recent window……Buxton - Miranda - Kepler all seem to be coming alive. Correa & Gordon need to get rolling……they both had poor April’s last year.
  11. JD-TWINS
    I’d like to see Headrick stay…..if Winder is ready I’d bring him up as well. These guys are for longer stints but either could throw to the minimum of 3 guys as well. Headrick threw one inning in between his long outings. They are our best talent. Maeda has to go on IL & should take minimum of 3-4 weeks to try & find himself. Ober seems to be the obvious replacement.
  12. JD-TWINS
    It’s hard to imagine that we can’t score 3-4 runs per game v. these arms……..it’s hard to imagine giving up more than 3 runs with our arms. Mahle’s start tonight will set the tone. If we split, a disappointment, but we’d be 16-13 for the first month……..17-12 would be an amazing start 16 wins out of 29 games projects to 90 wins for the Season.
  13. JD-TWINS
    Perry wasn’t near the pitcher he would become when Pasqual was around……Dean Chance threw a no hitter in there and had at least one solid year.
  14. JD-TWINS
    Until Kenta blew up today with 10 runs in less than 4 innings, our starters were leading the Majors in ERA at 2.62 runs per 9 innings. Fantastic!! Bailey Ober gave up 1 run in 6 innings……….time to make him a regular in the rotation.
  15. JD-TWINS
    Commenting in middle of Wednesday contest. Picked it up in middle of 4th - Kenta appears to have gotten rocked with 5 ER in two different innings. Time for a change - when you have depth, there’s no reason to experiment and give extra chances hoping for better outcomes. Give St. Paul a call & move Bailey Ober into the 5th slot. Headrick seems to be doing OK today (1 run through 3 1/3) so he seems to be a competent long guy for the near-term. Maeda needs to join him in the Pen for the month of May…….then re-evaluate. Those 2, along with the López - Jax - Duran - Thielbar - Alcala - Morán - & a new guy for Pagán would be a nice relief corp - maybe not perfect but pretty nice!! …………………….. Whoever said we shouldn’t have signed Joey Gallo needs to write a formal apology as I am here……….Sorry Joe! …….,Sorry FO! 7th dinger on the 26th of April……..he was out 10 days on IL as well!! Wow, when right, he’s a monster. Gold Glove outfielder that has played a flawless 1B every time he’s on the field! ……………………… Today’s game seems to be a proving ground for Headrick - a break-out day for Miranda….2 HR - and even Nick Gordon just tripled in the gap.
  16. JD-TWINS
    I can’t stand that Pagán is still on the staff but Aroldis Chapman is a very hit & miss guy as are most relievers. Very hit & miss. Pagan is in his 4th week of his 2nd year with the club……..not like his 5th year? Problem with Pagán is that he has stuff that plays better in the Pen than many guys in the system - you assume if a guy can practice well he’ll play well. He doesn’t have the guts/smarts to pitch in tight situations. Tough to quantify these things for the guys behind him as well………..we need to eat the $4M & move on at some point.
  17. JD-TWINS
    Gray’s curveball used about 15-20% of the time is looking really good most of his starts!! Ryan’s fastball, while not dominant from a speed standpoint, really seems to be under control and hitting intended spots 80-90% of the time he throws it……..saved him v. Yanks when he couldn’t get a feel for slider and struggled a bit with change/sinker as well. How about every pitch Jorge López throws - what a turnaround!! I had him paired up with Pagán on the first bus out of town when season started. 3 hits & no walks in 11 appearances & BTW, no runs. He’s got velocity - movement - command - confidence. Really fun to watch in ‘23. Pablo’s change-up is pretty effective and it has been lost with the success of his new sweeping slider.
  18. JD-TWINS
    Isn’t Headrick sufficient for long relief? I know he went 3 innings in first game. Not much of a track record to date. Winder is another talented potential long guy, once healthy. Balazavic is a new Pen option in another 3-4 weeks. The new guy, Stewart, will get a couple looks but really don’t expect him to stick. We have guys with better stuff……,they dobsee something if they DFA’d MeGill - he throws 98 with a plus curveball…….lack of control though. Gotta get to some scenario soon where it’s completely logical - beyond any doubt - that Pagán is TOO inconsistent to keep on the staff. Last, Morán may need to go down…….. with the ultimatum that he’s not coming back up until he can complete two consecutive outings without walking anyone. He’s got a nice change-up - tired of hearing that, as he walks 1-3 guys per inning. He doesn’t get knocked around, he just puts himself in trouble way too often. Somewhere in the 7.50 ERA range at this point.
  19. JD-TWINS
    Lopez - Paddack - Ryan - Varland - Ober in ‘24 (…..maybe Gray resigned?) - SWR - possible FA or trade acquisition? Balazavic is behind all of this as a starter, at a minimum. I too think a hard throwing guy to displace one of our current 6-7-8 guys in Pen …….a 2-3 pitch guy like Jax. I do think he’s been throwing in relief in St. Paul for a couple weeks plus. Hope he’s going to get a shot by June/July.
  20. JD-TWINS
    Health is a risk with both Mahle & Gray (probably anyone) & Mahle’s age makes him seem like the way to go. Don’t think he’s as hungry to win nor is he as smart, relative to pitching, as Gray. I’d offer Gray two options (maybe not at same time) of more $/yr & shorter duration & then a more standard offer. 2 years at $21M per year………back-up offer, 3 years at $17.5M. First one is a decent value for club & more risk averse.
  21. JD-TWINS
    Agreed - with Thielbar - Jax - Duran back at 2022 effectiveness & the addition of a very effective Jorge López, our Pen has a great core group…….need to round out another 2-3 guys. Maeda would/could be a nice piece to bring consistency. The elephant in the room & performer/player that seems to have been missed in this article’s body - PAGAN - he’s gotta go. His occasional success is greatly offset by his more than occasional disappointments! Again, he’s gotta go!!
  22. JD-TWINS
    Tuesday line-up: Castro - LF ……Taylor - CF ……Gallo - RF Solano-1B…Polanco-2B…CC-SS …Miranda-3B Jeffers - C …..Buxton - DH Jorge is supposedly a better LH hitter and would be rested by Farmer but Farmer’s hurt & Jorge got 3 hits Sunday from right side. Gotta get to Nestor with these guys.
  23. JD-TWINS
    Rosin is used to get a better grip - temps in the 40’s should generate a real need - maybe we’ll see another dust up with German, if for no other reason, just to irritate him. Seems to make sense for Mahle to go Wednesday on regular rest and to drop Maeda into the Royals series somewhere as it makes most sense. Gallo in LF Tuesday……8 other RH bats v. Nestor…….gotta break through!!
  24. JD-TWINS
    Lewis is a July option & things need to shift by mid-May. Seems like, at this point, Lee may be an option. Farmer helps v. LH pitching but not much difference v. RH pitching. Miranda - Gordon - Larnach (hopefully) - Kepler - Correa all just need another 15 games. Still have 7 games left in April - EARLY!!
  25. JD-TWINS
    Maeda to the Pen to make room for Ober in rotation? Agreed on the Hometown bias. CC is a .275 lifetime hitter - Buxton is a .244 lifetime hitter - Larnach has been brutal, other than 1 game, since we left Miami & remains unproven as a MLB player - Gordon has been as bad as anyone could have imagined - very fortunate Gallo has contributed to date - Kepler is still rough - etc. Gallo/Solano at 1B & Vázquez/Jeffers at C have been better than average to date. Taylor in CF has had flashes at the plate that bring him into the acceptable range but close to not, after brutal dropped ball & poor throw/effort on Saturday. 3 of 9 spots in line-up performing OK. Buxton is close at DH but nothing exciting. All teams lose games they should win because of shoddy play once in a while. If we can get a couple against Yankees & 3 against Royals we’ll be 17-12 for April……..before first pitch was thrown this year we would have been ecstatic with those results. Keep pitching & wins will come!
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