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PatPfund

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  1. PatPfund
    Loved this. My hope (like the OP's) is that Paddack is OK for next year, though renewed arm issues make it seem like he might be better in the bullpen (dominant for shorter stretches in-game, but longer stretches season-wise). Honestly, if Vázquez keeps hitting, I'd probably look to trade him and Larnach ($12 million minus whatever comes back), and I wouldn't offer arbitration to Kirilloff or Stewart (a few more million). Don't see any way out on the Sheriff, so they'll need to use him if they can, or eat money if they can't.
  2. PatPfund
    Yes. He's a veteran pro, a leader, a champion, and a rock of stability for a team that gave Gary Sanchez a big run the year before Vázquez was signed. And the job-share with Jeffers is well into a second season of the Twins having fully healthy catchers (which is a rare thing for the position in MLB, and super-rare for just about any position on the Twins).
  3. PatPfund
    AK's looks to be one of those sad "what if" MLB tales. I'm guessing the wrists are the prime culprit; the bone-shaving operation was always a last ditch effort, and an experimental one at that, and there is NO sign it worked. After rest, Kirilloff can have a strong spurt which then invariably fades into weak-rollover-swing-mode, just as you'd expect from a key joint getting inflamed from hard use. (Exactly like Buxton's knee last year.) I'm not as concerned about the D, because judging that on someone battling injury isn't super useful.... except in this case where the injury has every sign of being unfixable and chronic. With poor D, poor O, and no solution, save the $2 million and move on.
  4. PatPfund
    The best way to improve the team at the deadline is to sell off 2 of the 3 offseason additions (Farmer, Margot, and Santana), because the replacements (Lee, Martin, and Miranda) are flat-out better. The clear biggest need is in the rotation, but I don't see that happening now (we should have signed Lorenzen when he was cheap, but that ship has sailed); the best addition is likely a solid arm for the 'pen (and just hope the rotation doesn't fall apart).
  5. PatPfund
    The trade-deadline tends to be mostly a fool's market with teams paying inflated prices for mostly hope-hyped spare parts. The last two AL Central champs both got poor "grades" at the deadline, then ran away with the division. Given the Twins' looming budget crunch next year, and the horrible TV money situation, I can't really see the Twins swinging big this year, and I'm fine with that. Add a solid bullpen arm or two (like they did for low cost in the best of these deals), and maybe be a creative seller (move Farmer and Margot cheaply to teams needing veteran help and you make playing time space for Martin and Lee and the team gets better through subtraction).
  6. PatPfund
    You may be right (though ST stats are mostly useless). I made a similar prediction about Solano last year (mostly based on ST at-bats), and spent the last 5 months of the season laughing at myself. The joy of predictions!
  7. PatPfund
    The OP is a solid argument for seeing Castro more at 3B, though I expect there will be a fair amount of Farmer there as well. I'd also call up Martin first. It is time, and (especially if Kepler is dinged up) the Twins need OF help more than infield help. I strongly suspect Julien is also going to force more playing time very soon. He is a good athlete with the drive to improve his game where it is weakest; he's already shown it on the defensive side, and he put a focus on hitting lefties in the offseason. Last season's batting-against-LH-stats may soon be as useless as last season's first half defensive stats became to judging Julien's current defensive ability. But if not, Martin plays a decent 2B. (But I could also live with a Martin in LF, Byron in CF, Wallner in RF outfield in the short run with Castro playing more infield.)
  8. PatPfund
    I wouldn’t pull the plug on the season yet. Might be a chance to give Lee a taste of MLB. Or see if Miranda is back, and at least it isn’t another knee.
  9. PatPfund
    I'm hoping you are wrong on Byron and Lee, but that is only hope. My main hope on Byron is that he plays healthy roughly half of the season, and they IL him when he isn't healthy instead of cluttering the in-season roster with walking wounded. I think you are right on Julien, so I'd love to see the Twins also give Lee some play for the Saints in LF (he's a good enough athlete to pick it up), because the Twins OF looks like the sketchiest part of their lineup. Wallner looks pretty solid, but you covered concerns on Byron, and Kepler is not only a year older (and thus injury prone), but has only one half-season of hitting excellence in the past few years. Maybe Larnach learns to hit off-speed pitches, but just in case I'd love a couple MLB-bat-ready options at AAA, and right now I just see Martin. My "bold" prediction is that Santana turns out to be the Joey Gallo Roadblock Award winner for 2023 (which is why by mid-season I see Kirilloff being too valuable there to play a ton of OF). 1B is an offense-first position, and carrying a two-year-over-the-cliff bat there not only blocks better hitters, but it means we can't have Celestino-like ABs from our corner OFs. (If only we'd spent the Santana/Jay Jackson money on Michael Lorenzen. Sigh.)
  10. PatPfund
    Well expressed argument, I don't agree, but I get the sentiment! I guess my answer would be that the players did get a chance to communicate, and just like in a regular game, the communication may be lost if the manager does go to the 'pen. Especially in the heat/humidity of Florida, I'm fine with training rules that maximize player prep and health for the real games.
  11. PatPfund
    Good to hear about the new pitch. One unmentioned way for Ober to exceed last year is to up the innings pitched while maintaining the quality. Last year was a record IP year for Bailey, and it included the late trip to the minors after he looked like he hit a fatigue wall. No complaints about last year's usage, but if he can stay healthy another 20-35 innings might come pretty naturally, and would be a big lift.
  12. PatPfund
    The plan to go with Santana as the main 1B is lunacy that isn't sustainable. He's been a sub-par 1B bat for years now, and isn't going to find a fountain of youth playing in the field everyday (at an age Nelson Cruz just had to worry about hitting). Maybe, just maybe you can coax a good year out of Santana by saving wear-and-tear as an auxiliary bat and late-game defender (though I don't believe it; he's looked done for a while now). Best bet is to push Kirilloff to up his defense (1B isn't rocket science) and hit for his job. Same for Miranda and Severino at AAA, and if either hits in a way to indicate they are ready, the Twins should eat Santana's salary, cut him, and use the DH to rotate people through days off in the field. (Or if Alex can't hit, and Santana looks workable, then send Kirilloff down.)
  13. PatPfund
    This team is in such a better place than a year ago. Healthy Buxton, healthy Correa, healthy Kirilloff, healthy Lewis, healthy Paddack, potential full seasons from Julien and Wallner, a seemingly rejuvenated Max Kepler, a serious trio of impact players likely sitting at AAA (Miranda, Martin, Lee), a nice 4th OF in Margot, and maybe one of the best catching tandems in baseball. In many ways, this was a good off-season to not spend a lot of money, and lean into the development of our own talent. (In fact, I'm pretty sure the Twins wasted nearly $7 million on Santana, who looks cooked, and Jackson, who looks unremarkable and has no options which isn't ideal for a back-of-the-'pen arm.) Still, like many, I wish we'd nabbed a #3 or higher SP. I love Varland as this year's Ober, but Paddack and DeSclafani are both coming off years of injury-limited pitching, and our rotational depth is likely to be tested early and often. (Though, if wishes were fishes, we'd all...)
  14. PatPfund
    No hate at all; I actually love him (and think his defense used to look pretty good, and is likely to improve now that he doesn't have parts falling off of him). Plus, I never said he was Larnach, but I do believe he needs to stay healthy and hit as he has flashed or he is in serious danger of being bypassed. Brooks Lee may force his way to 2B displacing Julien who has been healthier and has out hit Alex so far. If Miranda is recovered, his bat is likely to force playing time, as might Severino. I'd get rid of Santana first (I think he's this year's Joey Gallo), but if Kirilloff gets dinged up, and somebody produces in his absence, well... even Jorge Polanco found himself mostly on the outside looking in, and he had a far deeper record than Kirilloff. I'm pulling for him, but he needs to stay healthy and produce, because the team has better options than last year.
  15. PatPfund
    Never might to too strong a word, but given the options already on the 40-man, and others like Lee pressing for that status very soon, Kirilloff is looking Larnach status (high prospect/had the job/bypassed/struggling to remain relevant) straight in the eye. Probably easier to keep the gig than have to re-sell the team on your talent.
  16. PatPfund
    Great piece (as usual!). I was pretty sure Correa was hurting last spring from something given the folderol about skipping almost all the ST games because he 'gets better benefit from hitting in the cage versus games.' Paired with the team's chronic under/misinformation concerning injuries (seriously, I just hear the Charlie Brown teacher noise now every time the Twins talk malady) that sounded fishy, and in retrospect I'd guess the heel was already hurting (something you aggravate more running than just hitting in the box). Hopefully the foot stays cool this season, or the Twins get more proactive with managing it (we didn't really need to wait until September to give the guy a couple weeks off; a couple extra stretches like that in-season probably would have yielded a ton of extra offense).
  17. PatPfund
    Short of an injury (like DeSclafani?) the whole roster is set except maybe at the end of the bullpen. If Jeffers and Vasquez stay healthy, and the Twins go fishing at the trading deadline, it makes you wonder if a catching prospect might not be on the hook.
  18. PatPfund
    Sorry, but an F for ownership is ridiculous. This is a team that is hands-down the favorite to win the division. People are mad at ownership, but at least for a change they were pretty clear in their communication, and not blowing every possible cent now might actually leave room for in-season additions. (Plus, there is a salary crunch coming next year, so building a cushion for that makes sense.) An F fit for the days of Matty the Shoe and JA Happless, not for putting one of the better teams in the league on the field. And argue all you want about whether the Twins are better now than the end of the season. I'll take the other side all day long, because Byron Buxton is running pain-free in the OF, Correa looks to be over his plantar fasciitis, Julien has continued to work on his D and batting against lefties and continues to look like a star hitting in general, Royce Lewis had a fully healthy and regular off-season for the first time as a big leaguer, and Margot looks to be a solid add. There is also every chance the Twins finally get healthy years from Kirilloff and/or Miranda. Oh, and the bullpen looks so good, some are tipping it as the best in the AL and a healthy Alcala may start in AAA. I still think the Jackson and Santana contracts smell of a wasted $6 million and in-season releases, but thank goodness we are at a point where what I (or really anyone else) thinks is less material than actual games played.
  19. PatPfund
    Man, I laughed so hard when I read the title, then found myself nodding 'yep' to all of it (well, maybe not 17). I'm also sick of PECOTA, ZIPS, projected win totals, predictions on this, that, or anything, and all the gorp that feeds us during the offseason. This team is SO much better than they were a year ago (when they started with Gallo; IL-ed Kirilloff and Lewis; Ober, Wallner and Julien headed to the minors, and severely hobbled versions of Miranda, Correa, and Buxton). I just want the ball to roll out on green grass, take in the sights and sounds of the Greatest Game, watch the guys on the field, and see what really happens (instead of what some person/system predicts). Play ball!
  20. PatPfund
    Lee is a really promising young player, but if he gets serious early season time in MLB (let alone making the roster out of ST) then something has gone SERIOUSLY wrong with the Twins. Like losing one (or more) of Lewis, Julien, or Correa to serious injury. To date his AAA performance shows some promise but hardly demands promotion. And... ...He isn't even on the 40-man roster, meaning you have to DFA somebody else to make room. Granted there are plenty of fungible arms to play with, but the Saint closest to breaking with the Twins is probably Austin Martin (he IS on the 40-man, plays OF where the need is clearer, hits right-handed, brings elite speed, and takes a better at-bat than Lee as of now).
  21. PatPfund
    This is a good summary, though I hardly think Varland needs to be "eased in". I think the bullpen experience was good for him, think he should be kept as a starter even if it means starting in St Paul, and expect him to be much improved from his rookie year when called upon. A ton of this depends on health (shocking I know), but at least we aren't planning to run Archer/Bundy/Happ/MattyShoe out there every five days.
  22. PatPfund
    Lee isn't Bryant. Plus, I suspect Martin is ahead of Lee and for pretty good reason (he plays OF including CF, which Lee does not, and that's where the Twins are more in need). It would probably take a major Correa injury to get Lee up at the end of Spring Training.
  23. PatPfund
    Not sure Santana affects Gordon at all; he was skating on thin ice before, and he still is. I think he'd have to have a really good spring (as Castro did last year) to make the team, and either way, he is an OF now for the most part. Kirilloff will either be healthy (like he was winning AL Player of the Week last year) and play a lot, or he won't, and neither likely have anything to do with Santana. With a relatively normal-ish offseason that didn't involve experimental surgery, I like his odds. Oh, and this just in. Santana is in DEEP decline as an offensive weapon at 1B, and with the Twins wasting 5+million on him, Carlos is likely to win this year's Joey Gallo Project/Roadblock-To-Actual Talent Award. I suspect he will continue getting older and worser, but the Twins will cling to him long after his expiration date (which I suspect was a year or two ago). They could have gone with Miranda or Severino (who may both be better right now that the remains of Santana) and banked the money for a good starting pitcher (either now or at the deadline).
  24. PatPfund
    Not a bad thing to think about , but it is too early to really consider. Beltré had a great season, Max had three months, and the lows (as noted) were pretty brutal. By mid-season, Max should have given some indication as to whether he had a hot second half, or he really figured something out. You'd also have another half season of data on Wallner, and to a lesser extent, Larnach and upper minors prospect progress. (Because also unlike Beltré in Boston, Max is under contract for the coming season.) Use the time to make the options clearer.
  25. PatPfund
    Very cautiously optimistic. Buxton isn't a 'reliable narrator' not because of any dishonesty, but because he REALLY wants to be out there. But... he does actually sound like he IS out there running, on both O and D. Though I still want to see it in back-to-back games before going full optimistic. I actually don't care how many games he is out there; I just want him out there only when healthy. Because I couldn't disagree more about "80%" being good enough. It isn't, and when he can't go full speed he should go on the DL to rehab instead of racking up gimpy 0-for-20s in the DH slot.
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