PatPfund

Every team needs a good utility player, but do we really need three (Kreidler, Gray, Clemens)? Is Outman OK, because he hardly plays, or does he hardly play because he's (not really) OK? If you are just playing game-to-game I guess keeping Kreidler around for a bit is fine, but... Emmanuel Rodriguez is on his final option year, and would immediately be the best defensive OF on the Twins not named Buxton along with an offensive upside better than any OF but Buxton. If not now, when? After he is out of options? If you need to play him everyday, bench/send down Wallner and his MLB leading 33 Ks (in 80 PAs) for a badly needed reset. But, yeah, cut Outman; he never should have gone north with the team.

Only 5 players in MLB history have won a batting title as a rookie, and only two since the start of the 20th century; Tony Oliva in '64 and Ichiro in 2001. Only Oliva also won in his second year (including the 3 NL 19th Century guys), so I'm guessing that's not happening again. (Oliva, Carew, and Killebrew in the same lineup was pretty fab.)

One of my favorite Twins of recent years; love the bulldog mentality that is driving him to work on the new stuff. I just don't think it is going to work, and in fact will get worse as the weather warms, and the hitters settle in. Gone (or IL) by June unless I'm wrong, though on the bright side, I'm often wrong.

Lee going to St Paul is not some kind of death sentence; lots of players get sent down and come back (and it isn't like the 40-man is made of giant barriers). The guy looks like he could be a solid player, but he clearly needs some work at the plate, and that doesn't have to happen at the MLB level. I could see him in St Paul by mid-May (or much sooner), but I also think it is far more likely he is on the 26-man in August than Gray, Kreidler, Arcia, Outman, or Clemens.

Sorry, but there are clear solutions internally. You could call up Culpepper, who would be an improvement on defense, and likely add speed and hitting to the lineup as well. Maybe he is "below average" defensively, but we know Lee is WELL below that. (Maybe send Lee down in that setup; he could use a hitting reset, then come back as the utility guy.) You could also cut Outman (not because he is 0-12 this year, but because he's been bad for years), and DFA Larnach (who won't get claimed at his pay, but we could always hope) or Clemens, call up Roden and Emma, and buy a 1B glove for Wallner, which would add needed offense, and give the OF a major defensive boost. It might also give us a solution at 1B (can't see how it would worse, and Wallner would be a massive target with legitimate 1B pop).

They'd probably sell more tickets embracing the rebuild; the Opening Day roster is laden with marginal MLB talent (Larnach, Outman, Gray, Clemens half the relief staff) "blocking" upside youth (Emma and Roden ready now, Culpepper and Gonzalez maybe after a month of AAA at SS and 1B, Prielipp after MLB meltdowns create a void). Losing isn't fun, but watching off-the-charts athletes compete always comes with 'can you believe he did that!' possibilities. The Twins are starting the year (by choice) with too many of those types of players in St Paul. (Should make for fun Saints games, though!)

If he were on a bubble, this would get him cut, but it's Lewis not Kreidler (or Outman), so you hope it is just adjustment to the new swing, keep an eye on it, and if needed in a few weeks, consider a (hopefully short) trip to St Paul.

Anything can happen, but a strong disagree that this is a 'make or break' year specifically BECAUSE of the state of the franchise. The Twins are as weak around the infield as I can remember in recent history, and while Culpepper may push Lee off SS, Lee's floor is still far better than any other potential utility player on the 40-man, and I'm far more confident he'll be on the '27 opening day roster than nearly half the 26-man roster that goes to Baltimore (Ober, Larnach, Outman, Clemens, Bell, Jeffers, the entire bullpen; oh wait, that is MORE than half and I didn't even guess about Lewis).

This team is bad defensively by choice. Roden has shown he is ready for an extended MLB tryout, he was acquired as part of trade for a serious asset, and his defense is FAR better than Larnach's. Emmanuel Rodriguez is fully ready for MLB now as well (you can't teach how to stay healthy in AAA), and his offense and defense are far beyond James Outman's right now. DFA Outman and Larnach and when (not if, especially for Larnach at the goofy salary the Twins gave him) they clear waivers, you can offer them a St Paul gig. Give Lee about a month to show if he is better defensively, and if it isn't working, call up Culpepper, move Lee to Utility, and shed whichever poor glove/marginal bat we pick to fill that spot. I'm not worried about Keaschall at all. It may not work out, but I was pretty sure Lewis would settle in with reps uninterrupted by constant injuries; he did, and I expect Keaschall will do the same. And maybe Wallner will be better by enough to stick in RF for now, but he likely isn't there next year, so buy him a big glove, and work him out at 1B (with Larnach theoretically gone, DH would then open predominantly for Bell.) A lot of this might not work out, but if we are likely to be bad anyway, I'd rather see the team explore actual upside instead poor mediocrity.

It might not have paid off, but I would have given Hendricks at least a couple weeks run in the regular season if only because there is some potential upside (more than in the waiver wire rejects filling other spots in the 'pen). Pretty grim stuff going on down in Ft Myers; isn't this when hope is supposed to Spring eternal?

The OF stuff is pointless; Emmanuel Rodriguez can play better OF, has far more upside offensively, and honestly should be breaking camp with the Twins. Kreidler's only needed talent is on the infield, which is stocked with people who can't field, or can't hit, or both. Hopefully they can shake the AAA tree a little harder. (Culpepper should get AAA time, but as things stand now, I 'd rather see him getting starts with the Twins, and Brooks Lee being the utility guy than the other options listed here.)

I get not offering Ober arbitration was a bit of a hot take, BUT… this team has a budget issue, and paying Ober (who may be washed up) and Larnach (who is MLB-mediocre on O and defensively unplayable) $9 million is a waste of money. You could have signed Ober for less (with performance bonuses), let Larnach go, and had enough money to sign someone like Littell or Giolito to fill the gap that popped up. @JD-TWINS, technically Ober is 31 this year (his birthday is in July). He turned 30 last year. And, yep, he was hurt last year for over 50% of his innings, and he couldn’t pitch at the start of camp. Not sure how that is a point in your favor. I’m a giant Ober fan; I frankly think he hurt himself trying to extend in ways his body really can’t any more. I have no questions about his hearth and guts, but being a fan doesn’t blind me to the strong possibility his days as a top rotation starter are over. (Check Baseball Reference to see how quickly elite extension Tim Lincecum went from Cy Young level to bad to out of baseball. @jmlease1 I agree Ober was great until he wasn’t, but again, he was still unable to pitch at the start of camp, has underwhelmed in his two appearances so far, and appears to be regressing. Also, not offering arbitration does NOT mean losing a player, especially one with small value on the open market (which is Ober in a nutshell). And FYI, Zack Littell got signed for $3 million this year with a $4 million buyout for next year (so $7 million committed) with the Nationals. I’d bet he has a healthier/better year than Ober. (Because I don’t think the velo is coming back, and I’m afraid one of my favorite Twins will prove unhealthy again or un-useable in the rotation by mid-May.)

I'm not worrying about Ryan yet, but mostly because there is too many other rotation, and I don't want to think about that. On Ober, opinions can be cheap (especially mine), but (as posted last fall) I wouldn't have offered arbitration to Ober. Love him, but he lives and dies with elite extension, and betting on a 30+ y.o. maintaining his flexibility is a bad bet. He also wasn't an MLB pitcher until he added some speed, and there is NO sign on the field he can live there at 88-89. Hopefully Zebby gets sharp in St Paul, because I doubt Ober is in the rotation on Memorial Day. (Hope I'm wrong. Which happens a lot!)

Lee's range isn't going to get better past 25, but it is a bit early to write off the bat (180-ish games in MLB). Hopefully he hits, and especially I hope his back or whatever doesn't take him off the field much, because the real crime here is the utter lack of a backup plan. (Maybe the Twins could package Outman, Larnach, and Arcia to Los Angeles to get Ryan Fitzgerald back.) (And no I don't think that is a real solution, except the part about losing a couple deadwood OFs. More realistic hope is they can deal cheap for depth at the end of ST as rosters cut down.)

This is a positive first note as I have Ober in the "anything positive we get is gravy" category. (So dubious I wouldn't have offered arbitration to one of my favorite Twins.) I'm glad this went well, and the hip seems healthy, but I'll also be watching for a velocity ramp up, because he has always needed those extra few MPHs to be effective; it's what turned him from a low prospect to an MLBer, and extension only gets you so far (playing up from 92 to 95-ish worked, but playing up from 88 to 90-ish last year resembled batting practice).

Sweating "no options" for bad players is like the annual agonizing which position players to protect from Rule 5 (where almost everyone claimed is a pitcher). Outman is about to turn 29; exactly WHEN is this supposed improvement supposed to happen? How are Emma and/or Roden not better options at this point? Who really cares if Outman is lost? If Jeffers is doing most of the catching and Caratini is C2 (and you have other slo-mo bats like Larnach and Wallner to help DH), why on earth do we need a terrible bat whose only value is catching. Who really cares if Jackson is claimed? I don't want to see either Outman or Jackson go north with the team unless 3 OFs get hurt and/or the team trades Jeffers in ST.

I guess stats show you what you want to see. The OP waxes poetic about bat speed and tilt. I see he scored 28 for contact on a scale where 20 is zero. (Also see a release coming with an offer for St Paul if/when he isn't claimed.)

I hope you are right about changes to come, because trying to figure out combos that include Wallner and Larnach in the OF, Clemens or Bell at 1B, and Outman (so aptly named) on the roster at all is like arranging those Titanic deck chairs. Having slow, below average defenders who mostly will hit below the average for their positions is just brutal. Emmanuel Rodriguez should be on this team unless he either plays his way off or gets hurt. Hopefully Roden hits. Emma/Roden/Martin with Buxton does a lot more for me than Larnach/Outman/Wallner. Move the slow players to slow player spots (like 1B) or get them off the team. Play Gonzalez at 1B in St Paul, and if he keeps hitting, give him a shot at forcing someone else out. If this team doesn't get younger/faster/better-defensively the lineup won't matter.

Given the high-ceiling OF prospects knocking on the door at AAA, Larnach and Wallner (neither good defensively) should be getting big looks at 1B/DH, and told to play for roster spots (seriously, how much more mobile or better as hitters are they going to get at their ages). Clemens could play 2B, Keaschall could go to the OF for Larnach, Emma to RF for Wallner, and Gabby Gonzalez should be at 1B in St Paul. None of this is great, but at least you can shift bats to maximize strengths of the roster instead of pledging max time to a guy with a 91 OPS+.

The projection is (I guess) a reminder we have some pieces, and not worth much more since those pieces may (or may not) be gone by ST. One of the main sources of gloom in Twinsland is how deeply vested too many got in the ownership and possible sale. I frankly don't get that; as far as I'm concerned an owner needs to provide decent resources, and the less I know about them and hear about/from them the happier I am. And the younger Pohlads have (at least in the past) provided decent resources within the context of the division. After that it is up to the baseball side to perform. This team currently has enough to compete for our division; without making a move you can have a 'pen of Prielipp, Festa, Orza, Sands, Funderburk, Topa, and Klein on a budget of under $90 million (with several strong arms in St Paul as backup for both the rotation and the bullpen). We also have some serious hitting on tap (Emma, Gonzalez, Jenkins), and if people are so hung up on what we lost (which really was Duran, Jax, Varland, and a bunch of expiring contracts), many of those like Castro and Bader are available right now on the FA pile. Yep, things may change, and yep, a bunch of things have to go right, but that is pretty much the same thing you can say about most teams that aren't the Dodgers. Chin up peeps, rub some dirt on the spot that hurts, and let's play ball.

This is depressing stuff, but I tend to agree with @Mike Sixel's grading of the teams. Buxton isn't likely to give a blanket waiver, he'll want approval on the team, and teams as far away as the Twins from a title aren't likely to qualify. I don't agree at all with the thoughts that Buxton gets a new contract to waive the no-trade. I don't think the Twins actually want to trade him unless blown away by an offer; he is a cost-effective superstar, the main reason to watch the Twins, and this team needs revenue in both ticket sales and Twins.tv subscriptions; carrying Byron into the season boosts both of those big time. The only reason this is happening is that Byron MAY have signaled to the team he is ready to go, and that comes with zero leverage for new contract terms. My personal guess is that Lopez, Ryan, and Buxton are here into the season for several reasons. One the team needs revenue (bears repeating), two they probably get more in-season (think of the haul the Reds got for a gimpy shouldered SP, or what the Twins just got for a few good RPs and a batch of expiring contracts), and three it gives a few months peek at our own prospects so we can see what we actually need. Also as a personal thought, if I'm Derek Shelton there is no way I sign with the Twins without at least a chance to compete with a decent team (dude could have easily gotten a bench coach job, and waited for a less Pirate-like rerun).

@dxpavelka I laughed out loud at your comment, because I was looking to move Larnach and/or Wallner, and couldn't think of a legitimate return I wanted, so I went 'no trade' mode. I spent 10 mill on Jansen (please Twins, don't do that), because if they don't make any moves, they should have some money to spend and still be under $100 million (and a mostly young 'pen could use some veteran leadership). Recent news about Buxton also has me wondering if Byron isn't just open to being traded, but has asked for it. That sure would make tendering Larnach more understandable (he's at least an average MLB bat in a lineup that might suddenly be missing its best).

My 1st stab at this. Goal was $100 million, and no trades. I don't see any future for either Larnach or Wallner in the OF, and neither has hit well enough for any stretch to warrant 1b or DH, but I had to put them somewhere. Roden is 4th OF until he shows he is an MLB hitter. Fitz over Cruddy Kreidler, Love Bailey, but he didn't look any better to me after his month off; I think he is 2026's Most Expensive Saint. I'm giving Abel the early nod over Zebby; Matthews, Morris, Rojas, and Adams are the core Saints SPs, Klein swings, Raya gets 'pen work and/or swings. I signed Jansen to close, Prielipp, Festa, Orza, and Sands are higher leverage, and Funderburk and Topa fill things out. If they click even a little bit, there is payroll space to make an in-season move, if they bomb, you have big trade chips in Buxton, Lopez, and Ryan at the deadline. C: Ryan Jeffers ($6.60M) 1B: Trevor Larnach ($4.70M) 2B: Luke Keaschall ($0.80M) 3B: Royce Lewis ($3.00M) SS: Brooks Lee ($0.80M) LF: Austin Martin ($0.80M) CF: Byron Buxton ($15.00M) RF: Emmanuel Rodriguez ($0.80M) DH: Matt Wallner ($0.80M) 4th OF: Alan Roden ($0.80M) Utility: Ryan Fitzgerald ($0.80M) Utility: Kody Clemens ($1.10M) Backup C: Alex Jackson ($1.80M) POS: Add Dead Money Here ($0.00M) SP1: Pablo Lopez ($21.75M) SP2: Joe Ryan ($5.80M) SP3: Taj Bradley ($0.82M) SP4: Simeon Woods Richardson ($0.80M) SP5: Mick Abel ($0.82M) RP: Justin Topa ($1.23M) RP: Kody Funderburk ($0.80M) RP: Cole Sands ($1.30M) RP: Eric Orze ($0.82M) RP: Bailey Ober ($4.60M) RP: Connor Prielipp ($0.80M) RP: David Festa ($0.80M) RP: Kenley Jansen ($10.00M) POS: Add Dead Money Here ($0.00M) Payroll is 19.87% under budget

So, just for the record, the OP does NOT have Outman on the roster; he is listed as the 6th of a 5 man OF. Also, being out of options doesn't "lock" you to the 26-man. You can be DFA'd, clear waivers, and accept re-assignment. Happens all the time (can't remember how many Dobnak got DFA'd, and the Twins had a middle reliever a few years ago they DFA'd like 4 times in-season before someone else finally claimed them). I get this is an if-the-season-started-today kind of thing, but Julien is going to have to hit his way on to the roster in ST, and I've given up hope of that happening. I still think Larnach is pushed permanently out of the OF, and he'd make a nice target at 1b, which opens up the DH spot for rotation, and an OF spot for Rodriguez. Julien and Outman get shots, don't hit, and get DFA'd to work it out in St Paul or for someone else.

Well, no. But crafty piece to fire up interaction at the site! Well done, sir!