PatPfund

Good looking prospect, and the type of player that makes watch MiLB so much fun. (Pretty happy to see the Twins.tv package comes with the minor leagues as well, though I did plunk for the full MLB.tv plus Twins package.) Speaking of pitching prospects, it was really fun to see Castellano in a Twins game today (some great stuff on display). Festa also looked great (his stuff is always great, but he was throwing a ton of strikes today, which is his key to another level).

Look at what the team did, not what it says. France has a small non-guaranteed contract; this is essentially a spring try-out/showcase. If Miranda hits he'll be playing., regardless. If France doesn't hit and Julien or Lee do, Ty won't make the team. Even if France does hit his way onto the team (and there is certainly a path), Miranda is only in danger of being bypassed if he doesn't play well, which is pretty much the story of MLB (as recent All-Star France can tell you).

Some of these seemingly hard decisions are going to be super easy in a few weeks when play and injury has sorted some of them out (including possible injury to one of the top 5). But all being equal, I agree with the top five. (I also agree with any statement that Opening Day is relatively meaningless except where it means losing a player.) If Castellano throws well, I think they keep him to start the year and explore a deal with the Phils to give him options if/when the need becomes apparent. Tonkin has a guaranteed contract, and probably is in barring injury or poor performance. They have to waive him, and potentially lose the $1 million spent on him. Varland is being started as a starter, and as such, he likely starts the year at St Paul and if he is converted to the 'pen, I expect that to happen at St Paul as well, before being called up. (If anyone thinks Varland is great right now as an RP, the reality is a lot more mixed. Much like his starts, RP Louis missed bats unless he didn't, and the contacts were pretty loud.) Alcala would be my third, but since he loses options, they may indeed start him in St Paul to keep some short term flexibility. A wild card could appear in camp (like if Canterino starts blowing people away like Duran did a few years ago), and force their way onto the roster. But the Twins have also (for the second year in a row) built a VERY inflexible 'pen with the back end (Tonkin, Alcala soon, Castellano) in keep 'em or lose 'em mode, and the reality is you need a shuttle. So again, things will change quickly after Opening Day (Tonkin DFA'd? Stewart hurt? Castellano sent back/down?), and good arms with more flexibility (Varland? Canterino? Prielipp? Adams?) will make up the 'pen shuttle.

In '23 Julien came up scratching and clawing for an MLB job. His hitting forced the issue; he was simply to send down after a 'temporary' call-up. And he worked very hard to improve his defense, which did in fact improve from dicey to solid. In '24 Julien looked like a player who had an MLB job, and was letting momentum and time carry him forward. Passivity at the plate. An end to hard work on defense (and a regression there toward butchery). Hopefully the offseason lit some sort of lamp, because '23 Julien was a guy you couldn't keep off the roster, while the '24 version is the type that finds themselves out of baseball quickly. (I'm betting on '23 Edouard.)

Badly, badly needed correction. You can't teach range, but you can teach where to be in that range, and what to do. Not just "I know" in the head, but "I can and have" in muscle memory through drill. Not every team can afford an Ohtani or Betts, but every team can afford the staff that implements these drills. It is the cheapest way to give yourself a chance in every game; don't give away free outs. (Really sad it took over six years to figure it out, but better late than never.)

Or they'll be better than last year with a bit more health, because according to the Athletic, Rocco is actually running team conditioning/defensive drills as part of the schedule instead of the previous 6 years of letting the players set their own work in the morning (meaning even if you did do those drills, you didn't do them with your all of your teammates). Part of defense is the skill you are born with it, the other part is the competence that comes with drill, knowing what to do, knowing where your teammates will be, knowing all that from actually doing it. The Rocco-era Twins haven't ever done that, and have often played like it. (Correa praising the new plan sort of confirms for me that last fall's shots at younger players not putting in the work were directed at team management as well as the players.)

Ryan Pressley was a Rule 5 pick. (Some good years, plus he brought us Gilberto Celestino in a trade. Which might cancel out the good years...)

It is a key year for another reason; I'm pretty sure this is Varland's last option year for the Twins, so if he starts the year in AAA (very likely), they won't be able to shuttle him next year. I'm not real sold on Louie in either role; good arm, great bulldog mentality, healthy arm (which is huge), pitches not quite good enough. (Thanks to @bean5302 for the data to reinforce my eyeball opinion that Louie is very hit and miss as an RP.) (It cracks me up nobody really talks about the SP who dominated in an RP role in '23. I remember Dusty Baker talking to Rocco, and saying "Paddack. Who knew?") My #1 hope is that he worked on that in the offseason (new pitch? extra velo? more movement?), and can succeed in a starting role, because that is more valuable to the team. (If you doubt me, try to think back to a trade deadline where you DIDN'T want the Twins to get an SP.) My #2 hope is Louie sharpened his stuff enough to warrant an eventual full-time gig in the 'pen. Otherwise he probably is gone in a trade by next year.

The true battle of training camp! (I'm putting some longer odds fake money on Castellano, but for the team's sake, I'd love for it to be Canterino and Keaschall pushing for the honor.)

To be fair he has something approaching a 1000 innings as a minor league catcher (though spread over several years). But, yeah. To be realistic, Mickey is 29, and has 18 total innings in MLB (where in 23 plate appearances, he had zero hits and 4 walks). If he makes the Twins out of ST (regardless of position), things have gone deep wrong.

In 2024, Ober and Lopez started more games, struck out more batters, got more outs in general and were major impacts in more games than Ryan (Lopez pitched 50 more innings; Ober, 43). Ryan was good when he was there, but there was a big stretch where he wasn't. (And FYI, I didn't say any of them was an Ace by some goofy and arbitrary standard, I simply said Lopez and Ober were better. Which they were unless you think individual stat lines are more important than how you affect team success for the season. Though if you want to go that route, Ober and Lopez were both much better than Ryan in 2023 (where Ryan's unfuzzy math ERA was 4.51 while Ober's and Lopez's were both under 3.70, and Lopez was dominant in the playoffs as a true Ace should be).

Eeles got signed out of indy ball, and I heard the plan was to give him a start in minor league camp (which he's never gone through) with instructors there able to give him more development time, while getting into games on the MLB side to give him that exposure as well. Seems like a solid plan.

Castellano is the most interesting to me, because of all the Rule 5 intrigue surrounding a live arm. Odds say he is gone, but Rule 5 is how we scored Johan Santana and Ryan Pressley, and that potential will have me watching.

Love Ryan, and his health/performance is key to our season. But when you build a big chunk of an article about statistical data, "fuzzy" math really isn't acceptable. Baseball's regular season is a 6 month marathon, and picking out premium stretches of one player's year, then comparing that to other players' full seasons (with all the ups and downs) isn't valid methodology. Ace potential is there, but Lopez and Ober have been better over the past two years (number of games pitched matters). If Ryan pushes a (knock on wood) healthy Ober and Lopez in IP this year, I love our playoff chances.

The contract clearly makes this an extended spring tryout/France-showcase. It is a nice move by the team to give Miranda/Julien competition, and it is a nice move by France to recover from a dreadful season, and zero interest from other teams; a plan WAY better than sitting at home doing nothing. If he hits well, he might earn a temporary spot on the Twins, and if not, other employers can see the turnaround and sign him. But if Miranda looks healthy and is smacking the ball, and Julien is hitting like two years ago (and pretty much every year in pro ball other than '24), then the Twins probably move on from France regardless of how he is playing (while keeping his number handy). Even if he makes the team out of ST, the low pay makes him disposable in-season, or even a possible sell-high trade chip.

I don't see any way France is guaranteed a spot. If Miranda's back is good, and 2023 Julien shows up to camp, they are locked in at 1B, and France is wearing another uniform or waiting by the phone in April. If Lee's back is healthy, and he is hitting like he did last spring, he's at 2B, and filling in around the infield. I like Martin more than most, but I've never seen him play good stretches of infield either for the Saints or the Twins, but the tools are there to be an excellent OF. He should go to St Paul, get regular at-bats, and just drill on one spot until he masters it. (Everyone is not Castro, and even Castro's D is sub-par when he is moved all over.) The Twins' bullpen is going to have flexibility issues early on, given the number of pitchers either too good, out of options, or Rule 5, so one or more of those will need to go to establish a necessary St Paul shuttle; if not in ST, then early in the season.

These three players (Coulombe, Hader, France) are all totally different types of deals. Coulombe is a solid MLB pitcher (with a no-run playoff appearance last year) filling a known team deficiency (LH RP), and being paid on a solid deal for the need. Instantly better than any in-house option. Ty France is cheap insurance; with no offers pending, he gets a chance to showcase himself for both the team and MLB while getting a full camp in; the Twins get backup in case Miranda and/or Julien look bad. If the younger players look set, France gets released with little cost (the contract isn't guaranteed unless he makes the team). If one falters badly and France thrives, it is only $1 million (meaning later release is less painful). Hader is just a bad deal, because the cost of his deal (officially $4.75 million, but the team is hooked for another $1.5 million guaranteed if they buy out next year's option) essentially locks his "floor" onto the roster, and represents lost money that will probably restrict whatever roster moves the Twins need to make in-season. Half-price Joey Gallo, extremely expensive Keirsey, Jr.

The Bader deal was terrible. They already had a great D, probably weak O backup CF in Keirsey, Jr. Try all you want to prove Bader is better in his 30s, but seriously, $8 million better (if you include bonuses)? On a team that has a tight budget? You probably could have added a 160 inning SP like Pivetta or Quintana for that money. Bader is just a worse hitting, more injury prone, almost paid as much, Max Kepler. (And at least Kepler started regularly, which is more than is planned for Bader.) They could also have focused Martin on OF, and had a younger, faster, cheaper, more offensive upside, RH-hitting 4th OF. With the tools to be great defensively if he wasn't being forced into a utility role.

Well, hopefully there is more of a concerted strategy between the manager and FO on in-game strategy, because giving him poor options doesn't really stop Rocco from doing the splits thing. (I remember listening to a KC broadcast last year, and they were chortling about Rocco loading up on opposite-sided hitting against a starter who had reverse splits.) Also, I wouldn't put Martin in the "shown no ability" hitting category; he had a rookie season hitting .253 with a decent eye and an 89 OPS+ in scattered playing time. That is a decent start; it is one of the reason I hate the Bader move (his veteran status means he will get lots of time in the lineup when healthy, and the gross overpay on money make him difficult to cut or trade). Martin bats RH, is faster than Bader and has more upside offensively, would be much better defensively if he could put focus on OF, and gives more roster/payroll flexibility if Rodriguez pushes for MLB time.

There are two reasons why Willi Castro set a record for playing so many games at so many positions. 1) he actually has a fairly rare ability to shift around. 2) His manager loves to shift players all over far beyond the norm. Way beyond the norm. I've always thought Castro was the most likely to get traded, because he actually had a solid season (unlike the other two main salary dump candidates), so there might be outside interest. Maybe the Twins agree with me. (Shocking!) (Probably not wise of them!) Castro at 1B is just ridiculous. I wish Rocco would spend less of his time trying to find new places to move everyone, and start putting a focus on how to build better team defense. (Spoiler alert: it probably means more ST drills, and a LOT less moving people all over the field. Which is why other managers don't do it all the time, and why most teams play better defense than the Twins.)

Slower than Martin, and a worse hitter as a veteran than Martin was as a rookie (while being sporadically mis-used). This was a waste of money, and by mid-season I can already hear the crowd here clamoring to send off prospects for a healthy veteran pitcher like Pivetta or Quintana (who probably could have been signed with this coin). This is THE worst tendency of this front office; frittering away resources on supposed values that just flush money and block the roster. Does Bader have a higher floor than Martin or Keirsey? Maybe, but then again the others have a much higher upside while Bader is past his. If you keep signing players for their floor rather than use those with upside already in your system, you constantly operate with higher costs than you need to, restrict your ability to actually pursue a major acquisition (both by being tapped out and failing to develop your prospects to have real trade value), and you doom your team to mediocrity.

Or they could trade Bader to shed that mistake. (Or more likely Castro, for whom there might actually be a market.)

So... we got a popless, slowing, weak hitter who gets injured a lot to back up our CF (who gets injured a lot). I guess we hope he isn't injured at the same time as Buxton? And that we don't blow a valve watching him flail away in pinch hitting situations? Or wonder how our faster, younger, far-more-upside prospects could do if given the chance? Total waste of money and roster space.

I like the Coulombe deal. This was our one definite need, and they signed a pro on a solid deal. Yeah, he had elbow surgery, but it was for chips not a UCL, and he returned to throw 4 scoreless outings (including one against the Twins). This is so much better than cheaping out and signing once-good players for half-pricing, then ending up with a player much worse than the younger talent you already have. (Gallo, Margot, Jackson, etc.) Signing a $5 million 1B when you have Miranda (the clear starter) just blocks a young player with more upside, and is one we HAVE TO KNOW ABOUT this year. Signing a fading OF to add a RH bat just blocks Martin who brings badly needed speed and batting discipline, and is another player we NEED TO KNOW ABOUT. (We'd know a lot more already if Margot hadn't been here.) Spending cheaply on washed up players compared to paying for ones who are real assets is a false economy, because you end up making the team worse by retaining them (like Margot), or just flush the money away (money that could have been bunched for real impact) when you are forced to release them (like Jackson last year). Short of a trade, this is a fine roster to start the year. Get some answers (Julien bounce-back, Miranda/Correa/Buxton/Lewis/Lee healthy? Emmanuel Rodriguez moving up? Rotation OK?), and then make any adjustments in-season. The Pohlads may not own the team by May, and the new owners may have a bigger budget.

A lot of these questions may be distant memories at the end of Spring Training. If Castellano doesn't look good do the return/trade thing. Anyone gets hurt (like Topa did last year), and there's your opening. Structurally, this is pretty much what the Twins did to themselves last year too, and yep, it means waiving guaranteed contracts you probably shouldn't have given out early (like Jackson last year), because modern bullpens need to have AAA shuttle tickets available. Assuming no injuries I'd waive Cartaya to clear 40-man space (let's get serious, put aside his original prospect status; he's raw defensively, and can't even hit AA pitching; he is a lottery ticket that can't pay off for at least 2 years and will have to come off the 40-man at some point). Varland starts the year as an SP (in AAA). The rest can shake out by injury and performance; if they aren't waived at the end of ST, you can count on multiple arms getting put on waivers to get a working shuttle going during the year. Some will pass through, some won't. That's baseball.