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PatPfund

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Everything posted by PatPfund

  1. PatPfund
    I wouldn’t pull the plug on the season yet. Might be a chance to give Lee a taste of MLB. Or see if Miranda is back, and at least it isn’t another knee.
  2. PatPfund
    I'm hoping you are wrong on Byron and Lee, but that is only hope. My main hope on Byron is that he plays healthy roughly half of the season, and they IL him when he isn't healthy instead of cluttering the in-season roster with walking wounded. I think you are right on Julien, so I'd love to see the Twins also give Lee some play for the Saints in LF (he's a good enough athlete to pick it up), because the Twins OF looks like the sketchiest part of their lineup. Wallner looks pretty solid, but you covered concerns on Byron, and Kepler is not only a year older (and thus injury prone), but has only one half-season of hitting excellence in the past few years. Maybe Larnach learns to hit off-speed pitches, but just in case I'd love a couple MLB-bat-ready options at AAA, and right now I just see Martin. My "bold" prediction is that Santana turns out to be the Joey Gallo Roadblock Award winner for 2023 (which is why by mid-season I see Kirilloff being too valuable there to play a ton of OF). 1B is an offense-first position, and carrying a two-year-over-the-cliff bat there not only blocks better hitters, but it means we can't have Celestino-like ABs from our corner OFs. (If only we'd spent the Santana/Jay Jackson money on Michael Lorenzen. Sigh.)
  3. PatPfund
    Well expressed argument, I don't agree, but I get the sentiment! I guess my answer would be that the players did get a chance to communicate, and just like in a regular game, the communication may be lost if the manager does go to the 'pen. Especially in the heat/humidity of Florida, I'm fine with training rules that maximize player prep and health for the real games.
  4. PatPfund
    Good to hear about the new pitch. One unmentioned way for Ober to exceed last year is to up the innings pitched while maintaining the quality. Last year was a record IP year for Bailey, and it included the late trip to the minors after he looked like he hit a fatigue wall. No complaints about last year's usage, but if he can stay healthy another 20-35 innings might come pretty naturally, and would be a big lift.
  5. PatPfund
    The plan to go with Santana as the main 1B is lunacy that isn't sustainable. He's been a sub-par 1B bat for years now, and isn't going to find a fountain of youth playing in the field everyday (at an age Nelson Cruz just had to worry about hitting). Maybe, just maybe you can coax a good year out of Santana by saving wear-and-tear as an auxiliary bat and late-game defender (though I don't believe it; he's looked done for a while now). Best bet is to push Kirilloff to up his defense (1B isn't rocket science) and hit for his job. Same for Miranda and Severino at AAA, and if either hits in a way to indicate they are ready, the Twins should eat Santana's salary, cut him, and use the DH to rotate people through days off in the field. (Or if Alex can't hit, and Santana looks workable, then send Kirilloff down.)
  6. PatPfund
    This team is in such a better place than a year ago. Healthy Buxton, healthy Correa, healthy Kirilloff, healthy Lewis, healthy Paddack, potential full seasons from Julien and Wallner, a seemingly rejuvenated Max Kepler, a serious trio of impact players likely sitting at AAA (Miranda, Martin, Lee), a nice 4th OF in Margot, and maybe one of the best catching tandems in baseball. In many ways, this was a good off-season to not spend a lot of money, and lean into the development of our own talent. (In fact, I'm pretty sure the Twins wasted nearly $7 million on Santana, who looks cooked, and Jackson, who looks unremarkable and has no options which isn't ideal for a back-of-the-'pen arm.) Still, like many, I wish we'd nabbed a #3 or higher SP. I love Varland as this year's Ober, but Paddack and DeSclafani are both coming off years of injury-limited pitching, and our rotational depth is likely to be tested early and often. (Though, if wishes were fishes, we'd all...)
  7. PatPfund
    No hate at all; I actually love him (and think his defense used to look pretty good, and is likely to improve now that he doesn't have parts falling off of him). Plus, I never said he was Larnach, but I do believe he needs to stay healthy and hit as he has flashed or he is in serious danger of being bypassed. Brooks Lee may force his way to 2B displacing Julien who has been healthier and has out hit Alex so far. If Miranda is recovered, his bat is likely to force playing time, as might Severino. I'd get rid of Santana first (I think he's this year's Joey Gallo), but if Kirilloff gets dinged up, and somebody produces in his absence, well... even Jorge Polanco found himself mostly on the outside looking in, and he had a far deeper record than Kirilloff. I'm pulling for him, but he needs to stay healthy and produce, because the team has better options than last year.
  8. PatPfund
    Never might to too strong a word, but given the options already on the 40-man, and others like Lee pressing for that status very soon, Kirilloff is looking Larnach status (high prospect/had the job/bypassed/struggling to remain relevant) straight in the eye. Probably easier to keep the gig than have to re-sell the team on your talent.
  9. PatPfund
    Great piece (as usual!). I was pretty sure Correa was hurting last spring from something given the folderol about skipping almost all the ST games because he 'gets better benefit from hitting in the cage versus games.' Paired with the team's chronic under/misinformation concerning injuries (seriously, I just hear the Charlie Brown teacher noise now every time the Twins talk malady) that sounded fishy, and in retrospect I'd guess the heel was already hurting (something you aggravate more running than just hitting in the box). Hopefully the foot stays cool this season, or the Twins get more proactive with managing it (we didn't really need to wait until September to give the guy a couple weeks off; a couple extra stretches like that in-season probably would have yielded a ton of extra offense).
  10. PatPfund
    Short of an injury (like DeSclafani?) the whole roster is set except maybe at the end of the bullpen. If Jeffers and Vasquez stay healthy, and the Twins go fishing at the trading deadline, it makes you wonder if a catching prospect might not be on the hook.
  11. PatPfund
    Sorry, but an F for ownership is ridiculous. This is a team that is hands-down the favorite to win the division. People are mad at ownership, but at least for a change they were pretty clear in their communication, and not blowing every possible cent now might actually leave room for in-season additions. (Plus, there is a salary crunch coming next year, so building a cushion for that makes sense.) An F fit for the days of Matty the Shoe and JA Happless, not for putting one of the better teams in the league on the field. And argue all you want about whether the Twins are better now than the end of the season. I'll take the other side all day long, because Byron Buxton is running pain-free in the OF, Correa looks to be over his plantar fasciitis, Julien has continued to work on his D and batting against lefties and continues to look like a star hitting in general, Royce Lewis had a fully healthy and regular off-season for the first time as a big leaguer, and Margot looks to be a solid add. There is also every chance the Twins finally get healthy years from Kirilloff and/or Miranda. Oh, and the bullpen looks so good, some are tipping it as the best in the AL and a healthy Alcala may start in AAA. I still think the Jackson and Santana contracts smell of a wasted $6 million and in-season releases, but thank goodness we are at a point where what I (or really anyone else) thinks is less material than actual games played.
  12. PatPfund
    Man, I laughed so hard when I read the title, then found myself nodding 'yep' to all of it (well, maybe not 17). I'm also sick of PECOTA, ZIPS, projected win totals, predictions on this, that, or anything, and all the gorp that feeds us during the offseason. This team is SO much better than they were a year ago (when they started with Gallo; IL-ed Kirilloff and Lewis; Ober, Wallner and Julien headed to the minors, and severely hobbled versions of Miranda, Correa, and Buxton). I just want the ball to roll out on green grass, take in the sights and sounds of the Greatest Game, watch the guys on the field, and see what really happens (instead of what some person/system predicts). Play ball!
  13. PatPfund
    Lee is a really promising young player, but if he gets serious early season time in MLB (let alone making the roster out of ST) then something has gone SERIOUSLY wrong with the Twins. Like losing one (or more) of Lewis, Julien, or Correa to serious injury. To date his AAA performance shows some promise but hardly demands promotion. And... ...He isn't even on the 40-man roster, meaning you have to DFA somebody else to make room. Granted there are plenty of fungible arms to play with, but the Saint closest to breaking with the Twins is probably Austin Martin (he IS on the 40-man, plays OF where the need is clearer, hits right-handed, brings elite speed, and takes a better at-bat than Lee as of now).
  14. PatPfund
    This is a good summary, though I hardly think Varland needs to be "eased in". I think the bullpen experience was good for him, think he should be kept as a starter even if it means starting in St Paul, and expect him to be much improved from his rookie year when called upon. A ton of this depends on health (shocking I know), but at least we aren't planning to run Archer/Bundy/Happ/MattyShoe out there every five days.
  15. PatPfund
    Lee isn't Bryant. Plus, I suspect Martin is ahead of Lee and for pretty good reason (he plays OF including CF, which Lee does not, and that's where the Twins are more in need). It would probably take a major Correa injury to get Lee up at the end of Spring Training.
  16. PatPfund
    Not sure Santana affects Gordon at all; he was skating on thin ice before, and he still is. I think he'd have to have a really good spring (as Castro did last year) to make the team, and either way, he is an OF now for the most part. Kirilloff will either be healthy (like he was winning AL Player of the Week last year) and play a lot, or he won't, and neither likely have anything to do with Santana. With a relatively normal-ish offseason that didn't involve experimental surgery, I like his odds. Oh, and this just in. Santana is in DEEP decline as an offensive weapon at 1B, and with the Twins wasting 5+million on him, Carlos is likely to win this year's Joey Gallo Project/Roadblock-To-Actual Talent Award. I suspect he will continue getting older and worser, but the Twins will cling to him long after his expiration date (which I suspect was a year or two ago). They could have gone with Miranda or Severino (who may both be better right now that the remains of Santana) and banked the money for a good starting pitcher (either now or at the deadline).
  17. PatPfund
    Not a bad thing to think about , but it is too early to really consider. Beltré had a great season, Max had three months, and the lows (as noted) were pretty brutal. By mid-season, Max should have given some indication as to whether he had a hot second half, or he really figured something out. You'd also have another half season of data on Wallner, and to a lesser extent, Larnach and upper minors prospect progress. (Because also unlike Beltré in Boston, Max is under contract for the coming season.) Use the time to make the options clearer.
  18. PatPfund
    Very cautiously optimistic. Buxton isn't a 'reliable narrator' not because of any dishonesty, but because he REALLY wants to be out there. But... he does actually sound like he IS out there running, on both O and D. Though I still want to see it in back-to-back games before going full optimistic. I actually don't care how many games he is out there; I just want him out there only when healthy. Because I couldn't disagree more about "80%" being good enough. It isn't, and when he can't go full speed he should go on the DL to rehab instead of racking up gimpy 0-for-20s in the DH slot.
  19. PatPfund
    Love the list! Trades could always flip things around, but as things stand right now, I might flip Martin and Canterino (not really believing in Byron playing CF until he actually gets back out there, so I'd be giving Martin a serious shot at earning an Opening Day gig).
  20. PatPfund
    Next year, if anything, is likely to have a tighter budget than this year (Lopez extension kicks in on top of the max rates for Correa and Buxton, and maybe Dobnak's last year?), so I highly doubt the Twins are looking to make multiple year $10-million-plus commitments to players over 30. Especially position players. So unless markets on these cave to single year (which I really don't see for the bigger names here), I'd guess none other than the RP are likely. And personally, I'd rather they focus on adding that starting pitcher first, because the assets traded or not traded will dictate a lot of what they need (or don't need) elsewhere. Last year they jumped on Gallo first probably figuring later moves (like trading Max) would open a role for him, and instead ended up with a fairly expensive prospect-block that kept Matt Wallner down at AAA a month longer than he should have been. There are plausible in-house answers for most of the roster issues outside of adding a mid-to-upper rotation starter. Fix that, or save your assets/money for a mid-season move.
  21. PatPfund
    I don't mind a move or two like this, but it is irritating that this is all they seem to be coming up with (so far). And if dollars are really short, wasting a million on a garbage arm really doesn't do much for me. Supposedly $6 million is too much to keep Farmer, but he would have far more than 6 times the positive impact of any of these pitchers. A million is also roughly a quarter of what they paid MAT last year, and an extra OF could still be on the shopping list. This looks to be more about staffing the Saints than the Twins, and these are the type of players you could probably add a few days before Spring Training. Be nice if they'd buy the important stuff first instead of finding themselves a million short on an important player, because they spent it on someone they release in late March.
  22. PatPfund
    Well... if it has a Nick Nelson byline on it, I'm gonna read it, and especially here I was wondering what kind of microscope would be used. But, the positive notes are pretty valid, especially if you look at early year performance when the knee was probably at its healthiest. (Conversely, when looking at the full season stats, the early peak was high enough to throw off how dreadful Byron was as the year went on.) Officially, I'm 'doubting neutral' about Bryon's health. First off, I believe nothing released offseason about his health; the Twins, whether for strategy or player PR reasons are absolutely opaque about health reports. You pretty much have to watch what they do, and ignore what they say when it comes to health. (Ex: I didn't get the Solano signing at first last year, but as it became all too clear that Kirilloff and Polanco weren't going to start the season, and that Miranda was actually hurt, it made more sense. But unlike some, I do believe in the injury, and the limitations (maybe it helps that I have a crank knee and played tons of OF in my time). It was clear Buxton was DHing because he couldn't play the field (which is more stressful for two reasons; one as pointed out, playing OF comes ON TOP of hitting; two, because on offense the destinations are set in place with known stops and a groomed track while the infield can mean dashes in any direction on grass with changes in course and speed to chase a moving target). I also noted that a peak performance by Byron, especially those that involved baserunning often preceded an 0-20 run (classic chronic knee result). I also believe in Buxton's raw talent, and his will to play to his maximum. If the surgery helped, there has been plenty of recovery time, and we should see Byron in the field in Spring Training. If we start hearing junk about saving him for real games, I'll shift to full skeptic mode. My best hope is that the surgery helped, and the Twins are MUCH better at managing what is likely a chronic issue than they were last year. Give him rest days, don't bat him in the 3/4 slots as a given (lessening ABs is a good thing for a chronic knee), communicate better with him about pain levels, put him on the IL more (maybe even regularly) so he doesn't limit the roster when hurt. Will they do any of that? Doubt it, but I can hope based on last year's DH-only failures.
  23. PatPfund
    Right now, it should be a clear "no" for the reasons in the OP. BUT, as also pointed out, the roster is highly likely to stay as it is, and every trade of someone in the infield pool (Farmer, Polanco, Miranda, Julien, Lee, etc) makes a reunion more of a fit. 2 or 3 might even make it likely.
  24. PatPfund
    I'm just not interested in dealing from our infield surplus until they acquire a pitcher, and then only if there is still a surplus, which I doubt. Julien, Lee, Farmer, and Polanco are all possible/likely trade chips, and the need for another SP dwarfs CF (where options of this quality abound on the FA market as well as potentially in our own system). Plus if CF leans toward Castro, Farmer's ability to move around is suddenly a lot more critical and he was a full WAR above Slater last year with nearly twice as many bats, so I'm not excited by the price either.
  25. PatPfund
    Actually, I would add all of the speed round guys, because it essentially gives a deeper view of the 'they always settle on Matty Shoe types' mode of thinking. (Though I get the point that you are saying even the cherry-picked list aren't all the same.) I do think, though, that for a LONG time the FO had a fairly empty minor league cupboard, entered seasons with sketchy/incomplete rotations (note the times above you mention they had only 2-3 spots set), and then they went out and got these arms. Even though WE shouldn't have expected much more than backend performance, the FALVINES penciled them in for rotation spots in conditions (that to some extent the Falvines created) that forced many of them into spots frankly beyond their abilities. Post 2019 was the absolute worst; they had historic offensive performances, fell short due to deeply flawed pitching... and then went out and put their major efforts into adding offense with the Donaldson deal. To be fair, pursuit of more quality depth (coaching up younger talent, check; being masters of healing injuries or age not so much) seems to be the new mode of a hopefully wiser FO.
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