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PatPfund

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  1. PatPfund
    Short of an injury (like DeSclafani?) the whole roster is set except maybe at the end of the bullpen. If Jeffers and Vasquez stay healthy, and the Twins go fishing at the trading deadline, it makes you wonder if a catching prospect might not be on the hook.
  2. PatPfund
    Sorry, but an F for ownership is ridiculous. This is a team that is hands-down the favorite to win the division. People are mad at ownership, but at least for a change they were pretty clear in their communication, and not blowing every possible cent now might actually leave room for in-season additions. (Plus, there is a salary crunch coming next year, so building a cushion for that makes sense.) An F fit for the days of Matty the Shoe and JA Happless, not for putting one of the better teams in the league on the field. And argue all you want about whether the Twins are better now than the end of the season. I'll take the other side all day long, because Byron Buxton is running pain-free in the OF, Correa looks to be over his plantar fasciitis, Julien has continued to work on his D and batting against lefties and continues to look like a star hitting in general, Royce Lewis had a fully healthy and regular off-season for the first time as a big leaguer, and Margot looks to be a solid add. There is also every chance the Twins finally get healthy years from Kirilloff and/or Miranda. Oh, and the bullpen looks so good, some are tipping it as the best in the AL and a healthy Alcala may start in AAA. I still think the Jackson and Santana contracts smell of a wasted $6 million and in-season releases, but thank goodness we are at a point where what I (or really anyone else) thinks is less material than actual games played.
  3. PatPfund
    Man, I laughed so hard when I read the title, then found myself nodding 'yep' to all of it (well, maybe not 17). I'm also sick of PECOTA, ZIPS, projected win totals, predictions on this, that, or anything, and all the gorp that feeds us during the offseason. This team is SO much better than they were a year ago (when they started with Gallo; IL-ed Kirilloff and Lewis; Ober, Wallner and Julien headed to the minors, and severely hobbled versions of Miranda, Correa, and Buxton). I just want the ball to roll out on green grass, take in the sights and sounds of the Greatest Game, watch the guys on the field, and see what really happens (instead of what some person/system predicts). Play ball!
  4. PatPfund
    Lee is a really promising young player, but if he gets serious early season time in MLB (let alone making the roster out of ST) then something has gone SERIOUSLY wrong with the Twins. Like losing one (or more) of Lewis, Julien, or Correa to serious injury. To date his AAA performance shows some promise but hardly demands promotion. And... ...He isn't even on the 40-man roster, meaning you have to DFA somebody else to make room. Granted there are plenty of fungible arms to play with, but the Saint closest to breaking with the Twins is probably Austin Martin (he IS on the 40-man, plays OF where the need is clearer, hits right-handed, brings elite speed, and takes a better at-bat than Lee as of now).
  5. PatPfund
    This is a good summary, though I hardly think Varland needs to be "eased in". I think the bullpen experience was good for him, think he should be kept as a starter even if it means starting in St Paul, and expect him to be much improved from his rookie year when called upon. A ton of this depends on health (shocking I know), but at least we aren't planning to run Archer/Bundy/Happ/MattyShoe out there every five days.
  6. PatPfund
    Lee isn't Bryant. Plus, I suspect Martin is ahead of Lee and for pretty good reason (he plays OF including CF, which Lee does not, and that's where the Twins are more in need). It would probably take a major Correa injury to get Lee up at the end of Spring Training.
  7. PatPfund
    Not sure Santana affects Gordon at all; he was skating on thin ice before, and he still is. I think he'd have to have a really good spring (as Castro did last year) to make the team, and either way, he is an OF now for the most part. Kirilloff will either be healthy (like he was winning AL Player of the Week last year) and play a lot, or he won't, and neither likely have anything to do with Santana. With a relatively normal-ish offseason that didn't involve experimental surgery, I like his odds. Oh, and this just in. Santana is in DEEP decline as an offensive weapon at 1B, and with the Twins wasting 5+million on him, Carlos is likely to win this year's Joey Gallo Project/Roadblock-To-Actual Talent Award. I suspect he will continue getting older and worser, but the Twins will cling to him long after his expiration date (which I suspect was a year or two ago). They could have gone with Miranda or Severino (who may both be better right now that the remains of Santana) and banked the money for a good starting pitcher (either now or at the deadline).
  8. PatPfund
    Not a bad thing to think about , but it is too early to really consider. Beltré had a great season, Max had three months, and the lows (as noted) were pretty brutal. By mid-season, Max should have given some indication as to whether he had a hot second half, or he really figured something out. You'd also have another half season of data on Wallner, and to a lesser extent, Larnach and upper minors prospect progress. (Because also unlike Beltré in Boston, Max is under contract for the coming season.) Use the time to make the options clearer.
  9. PatPfund
    Very cautiously optimistic. Buxton isn't a 'reliable narrator' not because of any dishonesty, but because he REALLY wants to be out there. But... he does actually sound like he IS out there running, on both O and D. Though I still want to see it in back-to-back games before going full optimistic. I actually don't care how many games he is out there; I just want him out there only when healthy. Because I couldn't disagree more about "80%" being good enough. It isn't, and when he can't go full speed he should go on the DL to rehab instead of racking up gimpy 0-for-20s in the DH slot.
  10. PatPfund
    Love the list! Trades could always flip things around, but as things stand right now, I might flip Martin and Canterino (not really believing in Byron playing CF until he actually gets back out there, so I'd be giving Martin a serious shot at earning an Opening Day gig).
  11. PatPfund
    Next year, if anything, is likely to have a tighter budget than this year (Lopez extension kicks in on top of the max rates for Correa and Buxton, and maybe Dobnak's last year?), so I highly doubt the Twins are looking to make multiple year $10-million-plus commitments to players over 30. Especially position players. So unless markets on these cave to single year (which I really don't see for the bigger names here), I'd guess none other than the RP are likely. And personally, I'd rather they focus on adding that starting pitcher first, because the assets traded or not traded will dictate a lot of what they need (or don't need) elsewhere. Last year they jumped on Gallo first probably figuring later moves (like trading Max) would open a role for him, and instead ended up with a fairly expensive prospect-block that kept Matt Wallner down at AAA a month longer than he should have been. There are plausible in-house answers for most of the roster issues outside of adding a mid-to-upper rotation starter. Fix that, or save your assets/money for a mid-season move.
  12. PatPfund
    I don't mind a move or two like this, but it is irritating that this is all they seem to be coming up with (so far). And if dollars are really short, wasting a million on a garbage arm really doesn't do much for me. Supposedly $6 million is too much to keep Farmer, but he would have far more than 6 times the positive impact of any of these pitchers. A million is also roughly a quarter of what they paid MAT last year, and an extra OF could still be on the shopping list. This looks to be more about staffing the Saints than the Twins, and these are the type of players you could probably add a few days before Spring Training. Be nice if they'd buy the important stuff first instead of finding themselves a million short on an important player, because they spent it on someone they release in late March.
  13. PatPfund
    Well... if it has a Nick Nelson byline on it, I'm gonna read it, and especially here I was wondering what kind of microscope would be used. But, the positive notes are pretty valid, especially if you look at early year performance when the knee was probably at its healthiest. (Conversely, when looking at the full season stats, the early peak was high enough to throw off how dreadful Byron was as the year went on.) Officially, I'm 'doubting neutral' about Bryon's health. First off, I believe nothing released offseason about his health; the Twins, whether for strategy or player PR reasons are absolutely opaque about health reports. You pretty much have to watch what they do, and ignore what they say when it comes to health. (Ex: I didn't get the Solano signing at first last year, but as it became all too clear that Kirilloff and Polanco weren't going to start the season, and that Miranda was actually hurt, it made more sense. But unlike some, I do believe in the injury, and the limitations (maybe it helps that I have a crank knee and played tons of OF in my time). It was clear Buxton was DHing because he couldn't play the field (which is more stressful for two reasons; one as pointed out, playing OF comes ON TOP of hitting; two, because on offense the destinations are set in place with known stops and a groomed track while the infield can mean dashes in any direction on grass with changes in course and speed to chase a moving target). I also noted that a peak performance by Byron, especially those that involved baserunning often preceded an 0-20 run (classic chronic knee result). I also believe in Buxton's raw talent, and his will to play to his maximum. If the surgery helped, there has been plenty of recovery time, and we should see Byron in the field in Spring Training. If we start hearing junk about saving him for real games, I'll shift to full skeptic mode. My best hope is that the surgery helped, and the Twins are MUCH better at managing what is likely a chronic issue than they were last year. Give him rest days, don't bat him in the 3/4 slots as a given (lessening ABs is a good thing for a chronic knee), communicate better with him about pain levels, put him on the IL more (maybe even regularly) so he doesn't limit the roster when hurt. Will they do any of that? Doubt it, but I can hope based on last year's DH-only failures.
  14. PatPfund
    Right now, it should be a clear "no" for the reasons in the OP. BUT, as also pointed out, the roster is highly likely to stay as it is, and every trade of someone in the infield pool (Farmer, Polanco, Miranda, Julien, Lee, etc) makes a reunion more of a fit. 2 or 3 might even make it likely.
  15. PatPfund
    I'm just not interested in dealing from our infield surplus until they acquire a pitcher, and then only if there is still a surplus, which I doubt. Julien, Lee, Farmer, and Polanco are all possible/likely trade chips, and the need for another SP dwarfs CF (where options of this quality abound on the FA market as well as potentially in our own system). Plus if CF leans toward Castro, Farmer's ability to move around is suddenly a lot more critical and he was a full WAR above Slater last year with nearly twice as many bats, so I'm not excited by the price either.
  16. PatPfund
    Actually, I would add all of the speed round guys, because it essentially gives a deeper view of the 'they always settle on Matty Shoe types' mode of thinking. (Though I get the point that you are saying even the cherry-picked list aren't all the same.) I do think, though, that for a LONG time the FO had a fairly empty minor league cupboard, entered seasons with sketchy/incomplete rotations (note the times above you mention they had only 2-3 spots set), and then they went out and got these arms. Even though WE shouldn't have expected much more than backend performance, the FALVINES penciled them in for rotation spots in conditions (that to some extent the Falvines created) that forced many of them into spots frankly beyond their abilities. Post 2019 was the absolute worst; they had historic offensive performances, fell short due to deeply flawed pitching... and then went out and put their major efforts into adding offense with the Donaldson deal. To be fair, pursuit of more quality depth (coaching up younger talent, check; being masters of healing injuries or age not so much) seems to be the new mode of a hopefully wiser FO.
  17. PatPfund
    Two good pitches. When they don't go well he gets hammered. Sounds a lot like Cole Sands to me with more health issues. (And if someone offered me Jax and Wallner for Cole Sands, I would LEAP on it.) He sounds more like a AAA depth piece than someone I want to trade a top prospect or an MLB player for.
  18. PatPfund
    This is more of a philosophy disagreement than that the trade isn't workable, but your scenario counts on everyone staying healthy, and that Raya, Culpepper and Lewis will work out and still be here, because I suspect Burnes will be gone, and a couple of the best prospects will be the following year's trade fodder trading more careers for one year of one guy. If we are trading prospects I want someone with more than one year (which also tends to cause the player to actually invest in the effort; unlike the talented but barely motivated Lance Lynn as a Twin).
  19. PatPfund
    For some, maybe, but not me, because the Twins don't have a giant budget, and trading whole pitching careers for one year of one guy is the fast track back to a few years ago with no MLB pitching staff and an empty pipeline. Not saying everyone has to agree with me, though.
  20. PatPfund
    Dude, you can type as many words as you want, pretending I said things I didn't say (pretty sure the only one using the s--ks word is you, I actually said I loved Jorge; never said people couldn't play more than one spot and in fact have advocated on this site for playing Jorge at 1B if he stays a Twin), but I'd bet my Tom Kelly Wearing Zubaz Smoking A Stogie T-shirt that the Blue Jays are unmoved by the prospect of trading pitching for a 3B who can field SOME BALLS, and can sometimes be accurate throwing SOME BALLS. (Well, OK, maybe not that shirt. I love the thing. Maybe my reputation? That means less to me.)
  21. PatPfund
    If you think Burnes wins you the World Series next year (the only year he'll be here), then it is worth it. If they don't win the World Series, they are worse the year after, because they may have infield depth, but they don't have that depth on the pitching side, and this gives up two parts of their future where they are weakest. I'd be in the latter camp. Not that it really matters, because this team doesn't spill heavy for pitching rentals.
  22. PatPfund
    I'd guess the Twins have very little interest in a two year $26 million contract for a guy who averages a half season (next year's salary crunch is bigger than this year's as has been covered well on these pages). If you want to spend $10 million (or more) for a PT 1B/DH, just keep Jorge Polanco, give him a big glove and some reps and rotate him through 1B/2B/DH. Costs nothing. (Or even cheaper, play minimum salary Jose Miranda as the RH half of the platoon.)
  23. PatPfund
    Well this fan has played ball for almost 60 years including long stretches at all of the positions except pitcher, and giggles at anyone who thinks infield is the same except for where you stand (consider for instance that SS is considered the top of the defensive spectrum while 1B is the bottom). 3B is a space where you can hide reduced foot-speed, but it requires fast reaction time and a strong accurate arm; the last two being areas Jorge was deeply exposed last year. More reps/practice could help fix the reactions, but his arm has never been the highlight of his game and expecting that to change at this point in his career is a fantasy (and I seriously doubt it is one shared in Toronto). I love Polanco, and he was a hero for giving 3B a shot at a time of need last year, but if I never see him play there again (regardless of the uniform he wears) I'll be a happier fan.
  24. PatPfund
    When Dean Kremer was the same age as Louie Varland was last season, he started 13 games and had an ERA of 7.55. Which he then cut in half the next year. I'd rather keep Festa and Miranda, and trust our own 2-time Minor League Pitcher of the Year to improve with experience from a far better starting point. Save the prospect trades for a better pitcher; you can sign rotation depth as a budget FA.
  25. PatPfund
    I'm sorry, but why on earth would the Jays want Polanco? He was absolutely dreadful at 3B last year, the Jays certainly saw the same things I saw, because a couple of his worst plays happened against them in Game 1 of the playoffs (Polanco fields easy grounder, double clutches, then almost gets Kirilloff killed with an awful throw; later Polanco has a slow bouncer, runs right past it, and leaves it to Correa to come halfway across the infield to bail him out with the fantastic throw to get Bichette). Polanco needs to go to a team that needs a 2B or maybe wants to convert him to 1B. And that team is NOT the Jays. And if all you can get for Max is some crummy relievers, then keep him. (IF he isn't part of a package that brings back a good SP, keep him.) The Twins don't need crummy RPs and they DO need corner OFs unless you feel excited by handing Gordon and/or Larnach starting jobs. (I don't.)
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