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PatPfund

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  1. PatPfund
    I'm with @MinnInPa. Funderburk has been dominant for as many months as Henriquez has games, he's striking out three batters for every one he walks, his AAA WHIP is 1.109 and his K/9 is 13.5. Clear one of the drones off the 40-man and give the guy a shot to acclimate to MLB. And at least keep an eye on Henriquez, because as the OP correctly points out, the back part of our 'pen is filled with interchangeable bulk arms who have done nothing to stand out as helpful under pressure. (Winder is really disappointing; at one time he looked like a rotation pitcher, but since his injuries last year he looks totally waivable. Sands is only as good as his offspeed pitch(es); if he can't throw them for strikes, his fastball is batting practice speed.)
  2. PatPfund
    I remember after Varland blowing away the Astros being horrified at the thought of Maeda taking his place in the rotation, then he got lit up three times straight and was an easy demotion. Which goes to show how sketchy making these calls 6 weeks out can be. But... Keuchel, no. I'd give him one more start and focus less on earned runs than WHIP. If he gets knocked around for the third straight start, it is time to pull that plug and call up Varland (who looks great again). Starting late season games is just the kind of prep you want for post-season (and pitching out of the 'pen ain't rocket science; starters do it every year). Maeda, no, unless he fades. If quality holds, I'd plan on 4 SPs, move #5 to the 'pen. And I'd give Kody Funderburk the next train ride over from St Paul. Dude's got 3 straight years of ERAs in the 2s and is currently fanning 1.5/inning, has 25 BB against 83 K, and peeps are hitting under .200 against him the last three months. That looks like real help rather than a fungible arm, but we kind of have to know how he fares against MLB fairly soon. (Oh, and I'll mention Randy Dobnak. As in "Randy Dobnak got beaten like a dirty rug last night.")
  3. PatPfund
    Hanging on to my Max apology until this proves sustainable, but at least I located my Kepler shirt deep in the back of the closet, and might actually get it out for wear sometime soon. I never wanted Págán DFAed; my frustrations were always that I wish he could be, but the 'pen was so shallow that there never was any real pressure from other talent to drop Emilio. (The way Wallner has clearly bypassed Gallo, and the pressure to drop Joey is consistently going to grow as better hitters get healthy, and the big guy's flailing continues with dwindling at bats.) But despite the withheld apologies, it is pretty marvelous to have Max and Emilio part of the solution instead of being foundations of the problem!
  4. PatPfund
    For those worried about 40-man roster space, Gallo and Luplow (unless he hits fairly quickly) are low-hanging fruit on the MLB team. Someone else pointed out that Miranda could be 60-dayed (he's already more than halfway through that) if he isn't due back soon. Gilberto Celestino isn't as good as Mark Contreras who was just waived, and he could be waived probably without a claim (and no loss if he is; good athlete who can't hit, and whose terrible base-running wrecks even a bench role). Oliver Ortega is a fungible minor league RP who could be waived (say for Funderburk). Cole Sands would be next on my list, but I'm not sure you need 5 40-man slots to finish the year.
  5. PatPfund
    Love the premise of the article! Like your list, but I'd drop Celestino a mile off this list, and frankly waive him at some point if the 40-man gets tight (strategic to call him a right-handed bat, because he certainly isn't a hitter to go along with being a foolish base-runner; probably clears waivers, and if he doesn't then no loss). Stevenson plays decent defense, is hitting .312 with 14 HR, 35 SB, 51 RBI, and OPS of .906. and you don't need to platoon him. I'd also drop Lee off the list, and let him play the rest of the season at AAA. Sticking to the number I'd put Chris Williams on the list in Lee's stead; he has shown major pop from the right side of the plate for lefty/righty fetishists (of which I'm not one, but Rocco certainly is). Probably not Camargo yet, but as a defensive catcher developing major thunder with the bat, I'm curious what the off-season brings (I'd be quietly shopping Vasquez to see if there is a market).
  6. PatPfund
    I think the OP is right that Wallner is ahead of Larnach now. But Gallo won't be back, and his is the dead space currently holding Larnach in St Paul. (That, and Larnach has only flashed sporadic promise, not changed the conversation the way Julien did.) The Twins aren't doing themselves any favors by continuing to give at-bats and playing time to Gallo. Larnach may have options, but the Twins will have decisions to make on the 40-man before December that won't involve Gallo, but will involve other tall OFs. And without playing time they will be making them in self-inflicted ignorance.
  7. PatPfund
    I think #1 and #2 are factors (not whole reasons). I think #3 here is totally wrong. What do you add with a trade? Usually a veteran from either a losing team, or a struggling veteran you hope to revive for a few months. What are the Twins? Underperforming veterans - Correa, Buxton probably due to injury, Polanco due to injury, Kepler (been a solid few weeks after years of brutality), Gallo (who clearly is what he was last year aka pretty bad), Vasquez somewhat, Farmer somewhat. Who are the interesting players that give the most hope on offense with potential upside if played more? All young players; Julien, Kirilloff, Lewis, Jeffers, Wallner, even Larnach and Castro. Where is the most potential right now at AAA? Offense (Stevenson, Prato, maybe Williams if you want that right-handed hitter). I think the FO didn't add to the offense, because it would just add blockage to the team's best hopes, the younger players, and I think they correctly saw for this team to succeed in the playoffs, they need their current vets to produce better. If they develop their younger players (by playing them even against lefties), get Correa to start hitting better, and can keep Lewis and Polo healthy down the stretch, somebody like Pham would just be in the way. Wouldn't have minded a couple solid RPs though. (Same thing I was thinking in the spring when they were FAs not trade targets.) (And developing younger players would go faster by DFAing Gallo and putting Byron on IL when he is too injured to play (a month of that now might mean having the real Buxton down the stretch and into the playoffs).
  8. PatPfund
    I'm totally OK with this. The most interesting players are the young ones. I had zero interest in adding another fading veteran roadblock to players who either need to cut it in extended play, or be moved on from. Adding Pham to send Wallner back down to the minors doesn't make this team better. I would have loved another arm or two, but we also have arms all over our 40-man that should either produce or be let go. Maybe a couple come through (like Headrick or Varland or Keuchel). There are even interesting bats at AAA we haven't seen yet (Williams, Stevenson, Prato). Let's roll with what we have, DFA Gallo, IL Byron so he's ready for the post-season, and see what happens!!
  9. PatPfund
    Yeah, it always felt like we were an arm or two short in the 'pen. (And a LH hitter "who strikes out a lot" heavy in the OF.)
  10. PatPfund
    Agree. The Twins "won" last year's deadline, and the White Sox and Guardians both got 'F's for doing nothing (then both blew past the Twins). Nailed the veterans part as well (and yep, I'd DFA or trade Gallo for pretty much anything; the Marlins need offense), and they are partly why I'm not interested in adding a RH bat. If Correa doesn't start hitting, this team isn't going far in the playoffs. If they don't structure healing time for Byron (putting him on the IL for treatment also opens a roster spot), instead of being a help in the playoffs, he'll be shut down yet again by some secondary injury (like a hip) that comes from running the bases on a leg-and-a-half. Add a RH bat with Lewis coming back, and committing to veterans means you don't play (and probably send down) Wallner and Larnach when both are of age, and you seriously need to know now how much you can count on them next year (when Max, Taylor, Gallo, and the rental may all be gone). A deal for a solid arm or two, or nothing is fine with me.
  11. PatPfund
    Some great points, though Duvall evidently does not check the number one box (we don't need a right-handed hitter, we need someone who can 'mash lefties', and Duvall doesn't). Agree with others that Hernandez sounds the best of these options, but I'm also fine with the Twins mostly sitting this one out, or sticking to picking up some solid relief help (where the farm is barest). Not because I'm waving a white flag (I still think we win the division and our first playoff game regardless of whether or not we make a move), But because I want this team to be even better at this time next year, with a deeper farm system, and the path to mediocrity is paved by continually trading away up and coming (and cheap) talent for overpriced has-beens who simply end up blocking our own talent from developing.
  12. PatPfund
    If you can't trade Keuchel, I see no reason not to bring him up and give a couple starts. If it works, great (and keep rolling with it), if not at least you've given some our starters extra rest. The team turned him into an asset, and they should use him one way or another.
  13. PatPfund
    Agreed that Gallo brings back nothing. Which is pretty much what he adds to our lineup for the past month (a few HR, some walks, and strikeouts in essentially half his non-walk ABs). Wallner and Larnach might be trade bait, but hopefully not (or hopefully at most one) since I don't see Kepler or Gallo with this team next season. And I also suspect we've seen the last of Byron playing a lot of OF in any season. Maybe they'll surprise me, but I think the FO mostly likes what we have, they saw Cleveland stand pat last year and succeed, and they saw their own big moves blow up. I wouldn't be surprised to see a couple of Fulmer-like small trades, and nothing else. (And I'd definitely like to either see them trade Keuchel, or call him up for a start this weekend to boost his stock.)
  14. PatPfund
    Pagan is what he is. Right now he deserves to be in the 'pen, because the Twins are weak enough there, Pagan has been decent (much better than Moran), and he isn't being pushed out by a surplus of talent. (The way Gallo and Kepler probably should be pushed off the roster in the first case and to the bench in the second by Wallner and Larnach; especially Wallner.) I also watch a fair amount of Saints ball, and I really don't see anyone pushing for the majors enough to threaten Pagan anytime soon (unless they move a starter or two to bullpen work). I'm not happy about it, but I get that Pagan is likely here for the year.
  15. PatPfund
    No. On so many levels. Renfro's having a down-ish year, strikes out a lot, and (this year) has reverse splits. Plus the most likely moves you mention, like trading Farmer or DFA'ing Solano (because he's had a bad couple weeks?) or sending Wallner down costs us either a good RH batter and excellent team player, or deletes a young player who has done nothing but produce when given the chance. To add a fairly equivalent RH batter who is hitting like a lefty (that isn't as good as LH Wallner), and who likely has no future with the team while costing us a prospect (or more) who might have a future? The Twins biggest problem against lefties may well be they continue to sit their best LH hitters (like Julien, Kiriloff, and Wallner) instead of putting their best lineup on the field. Try that with the returned Polanco, and soon Royce Lewis, and keep the prospects. (Plus, DFA/trade Gallo, and put Byron on IL until he is healthy enough to play real baseball and open some slots for better players. Those two moves probably save 30 Ks a week.)
  16. PatPfund
    I really can't get too worked up about this. The Twins signed all of their draft picks except the two HS position players they picked last. Who might not have signed anyway, and who both have plenty of time to show they are worth drafting again. Got a chuckle out of spending some of it to close the deal earlier with Jenkins to save us stress. (Now if they'd failed to close that deal, I'd be feeling different, but giving a teenage millionaire a couple hundred K extra to save me stress is money wasted.)
  17. PatPfund
    I appreciate the research and thought process, but personally I think this is a year the Twins mostly sit out the deadline unless they find a Fulmer type or two. Their biggest problems on offense have been self-inflicted (continuing to play Byron every day and in the 3-hole even when he is constantly running off 0-20s and neutralizing rallies, the FO's love of Joey Gallo, and Rocco's obsession with sitting his best lefty bats when they face a lefty). Some of this they've already addressed (sitting Byron consecutive games and moving him down the order), and they have Polanco and Lewis coming back, and maybe Gordon, and Wallner/Larnach/Stevenson for OF depth, and even Chris Williams as potential right-handed pop. Let's save the prospects, and play the folks we'll need to make decisions on by December's roster deadlines. Last year Cleveland got a trade deadline 'F', the Twins mostly got B+/A grades, and yet the Guardians blew past us and finished 14 up (and knocked off the Yankees).
  18. PatPfund
    We almost never agree on anything, but OMG, yes. Yes. Yes. The experiment to use Byron as just a hitter was worth doing, but should have ended long ago, and now is pure mismanagement. I suspect Rocco (another wildly gifted OF whose career was sunk by chronic injury) is going overboard to provide chances he wish he'd had. But enough is enough. (And enough was reached about a month ago.)
  19. PatPfund
    Popkins is a scapegoat not the real problem. The real problem (other than Correa which might be Popkins influenced, but he's a big boy making final decisions himself) is health, roster construction, and how it is managed. Bringing in somebody else isn't going to change who Joey Gallo is (which might be someone sort of useful if he weren't on a team filled with whiffers). It's not going to fix Max Kepler. And both of those are lineup regulars blocking potentially better players. A new hitting coach isn't going to give Jorge Polanco healthy hammies, rush Royce a perfect oblique, or bless Byron with instant cures for knees, back, and whatever else is messed up. And a new hitting coach isn't going to get Rocco to stop putting the rally killing duo of CC and BB in the top 4, or keep him from benching some of his best hitters because of leftie pitchers (it's worked out so well, right?). Address the real problems, and if you need to change coaches (or managers or FO staff), do it in the offseason.
  20. PatPfund
    The problem with the Twins offense is clear. 5 players (Correa, Buxton, Gallo, Kepler, Polanco) were expected to be regular foundations at the plate. Only one (Correa) is likely to have a bounce-back in the second half; the others are hurt all the time and are likely to keep that up (Buxton, Polanco), or have established over the past couple seasons than they aren't as good as they once were (Gallo, Kepler). The problem isn't acquiring better players (the Saints starting OF is better than the Twins), it is opening slots in the batting order for better hitters by trading (even for a bag of balls) Kepler and Gallo, putting Byron on IL whenever his injuries overwhelm his ability to hit, and moving Correa/Byron down the order until they start to hit. Only the Souhan column that hints ownership might be losing its patience gives me any (and it is dim) hope Falvine/Rocco will take the needed steps. (And folks, Byron ain't playing in the field any time soon. Because he physically can't. But he also shouldn't be blocking up the DH spot hitting like he is. IL him until he can play baseball.)
  21. PatPfund
    Maybe Popkins is part of the problem, maybe not. I'd blame the FO, who added the King O' Ks to our OF, kept the fading Kepler (who Ks less, but isn't good and hasn't been for years), can't seem to admit acquisition mistakes, and built the lineup around chronically injured players (like Polanco and Buxton, who has been TERRIBLE since the end of April), though they did add a solid bat in Solano. Maybe its the manager who went through a brutal injury decline, and therefore (or for some reason) KEEPS running out two of his worst hitters (one injured all the time) in the top four of the order, like it was against the law to bat them lower until they snap out of it. Maybe it's all of the above. Brutal to watch whatever the reason.
  22. PatPfund
    Love the target, but if the return is young controllable pitching, this team can't afford it. Seriously, their biggest problems on offense are the presence of supposed key pieces who are underperforming (Correa at the plate, Byron, Gallo, Kepler) who the team cannot or will not move to make way for potential in-house solutions (like Wallner, Miranda, Larnach). Solutions that can't sit forever unused, because they will need to be protected or dealt or exposed, and they are all at an age where they should be getting some run. I get it with Carlos, I get it a bit with Byron (though they go to ridiculous lengths to keep him off the IL with serious negative impacts on the offense), and I don't get it at all with Kepler and Gallo. They've had almost half a season to show they are critical (and they aren't), there is almost no chance they are here next year, and Wallner/Larnach/Stevenson/Celestino could almost certainly replace them at the plate, and mostly in the field. I don't think it is bailing on the season to dump Kepler/Gallo; you are just taking a chance on one or more youngsters catching fire. And if they don't, the Twins need to know before the season is over. Clear the deadwood, look in-house for hitting, bolster the 'pen, and take your chances.
  23. PatPfund
    @darwin22 Sorry, I've been off-site a lot lately! @East Coast Twin has the vesting stat, and Polanco is highly unlikely to hit it. Spotrac seems to show the Twins would have the option at that point with a $1 million buyout if they decline the option. If Jorge has a completely healthy second half (not holding my breath on that), he'd be a bargain to renew even with an eye to trade. if he doesn't, the million seems like the rational bet with Julien on the scene and others who could play the position (like Lewis). But with this front office (see Kepler, Max) the rational isn't a given.
  24. PatPfund
    A healthy Polanco is an asset to the team, and a good potential trade chip. But he hasn't been able to stay on the field for almost a year now, and a constantly hurt Polanco is not an asset to the team, and is untradeable (and the clock is ticking on the trade deadline if he is to prove himself an asset). If Jorge can't get healthy, I can't see him back with the Twins next year. Julien, Lewis, and Kirilloff are already among the team leaders in OPS, and all are still on their way up with other possible replacements on the way.
  25. PatPfund
    As a few have pointed out (and the team's batting stats would confirm), if Miranda keeps hitting, you can easily find space for him at 1b (with some rotation through third and DH). Kepler's presence on the roster (and I say this as a long time Max fan) is beginning to border on malpractice of the sort that gets people fired. He shouldn't have been here to start (especially after signing Gallo), but any hopes of a resurgence are now gone. Kirilloff can play RF/1B/DH. Lewis can spell Correa while getting at-bats mostly at 3B and some at DH. Solano (whose long-season stats shows he can wear down if played too much) keeps his current role. The logjam clears a bit after this season with Kepler and Gallo gone. The real elephant in the room is actually Byron Buxton. Not that he can play CF right now, because he clearly cannot or he would be (you don't sit down the most dynamic OF in baseball if he is healthy). Every game (and there have been a few) where Byron runs wild on the bases, he either sits multiple games afterward, or runs off an 0-20, or both. He's clearly hurt. The Twins should be honest about his condition, and do what it takes to get him healthy enough to play in the field again (somewhere even if it isn't CF), because he isn't good enough as a hobbled batter to be blocking the DH spot full time. I was fine with him there when there were no bats clamoring to push him aside, but fortunately (with the arrival of Lewis, Julien, and Kirilloff with Miranda and Wallner pending) that isn't the case any more.
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