PatPfund

Agree. The Twins "won" last year's deadline, and the White Sox and Guardians both got 'F's for doing nothing (then both blew past the Twins). Nailed the veterans part as well (and yep, I'd DFA or trade Gallo for pretty much anything; the Marlins need offense), and they are partly why I'm not interested in adding a RH bat. If Correa doesn't start hitting, this team isn't going far in the playoffs. If they don't structure healing time for Byron (putting him on the IL for treatment also opens a roster spot), instead of being a help in the playoffs, he'll be shut down yet again by some secondary injury (like a hip) that comes from running the bases on a leg-and-a-half. Add a RH bat with Lewis coming back, and committing to veterans means you don't play (and probably send down) Wallner and Larnach when both are of age, and you seriously need to know now how much you can count on them next year (when Max, Taylor, Gallo, and the rental may all be gone). A deal for a solid arm or two, or nothing is fine with me.

Some great points, though Duvall evidently does not check the number one box (we don't need a right-handed hitter, we need someone who can 'mash lefties', and Duvall doesn't). Agree with others that Hernandez sounds the best of these options, but I'm also fine with the Twins mostly sitting this one out, or sticking to picking up some solid relief help (where the farm is barest). Not because I'm waving a white flag (I still think we win the division and our first playoff game regardless of whether or not we make a move), But because I want this team to be even better at this time next year, with a deeper farm system, and the path to mediocrity is paved by continually trading away up and coming (and cheap) talent for overpriced has-beens who simply end up blocking our own talent from developing.

If you can't trade Keuchel, I see no reason not to bring him up and give a couple starts. If it works, great (and keep rolling with it), if not at least you've given some our starters extra rest. The team turned him into an asset, and they should use him one way or another.

Agreed that Gallo brings back nothing. Which is pretty much what he adds to our lineup for the past month (a few HR, some walks, and strikeouts in essentially half his non-walk ABs). Wallner and Larnach might be trade bait, but hopefully not (or hopefully at most one) since I don't see Kepler or Gallo with this team next season. And I also suspect we've seen the last of Byron playing a lot of OF in any season. Maybe they'll surprise me, but I think the FO mostly likes what we have, they saw Cleveland stand pat last year and succeed, and they saw their own big moves blow up. I wouldn't be surprised to see a couple of Fulmer-like small trades, and nothing else. (And I'd definitely like to either see them trade Keuchel, or call him up for a start this weekend to boost his stock.)

Pagan is what he is. Right now he deserves to be in the 'pen, because the Twins are weak enough there, Pagan has been decent (much better than Moran), and he isn't being pushed out by a surplus of talent. (The way Gallo and Kepler probably should be pushed off the roster in the first case and to the bench in the second by Wallner and Larnach; especially Wallner.) I also watch a fair amount of Saints ball, and I really don't see anyone pushing for the majors enough to threaten Pagan anytime soon (unless they move a starter or two to bullpen work). I'm not happy about it, but I get that Pagan is likely here for the year.

No. On so many levels. Renfro's having a down-ish year, strikes out a lot, and (this year) has reverse splits. Plus the most likely moves you mention, like trading Farmer or DFA'ing Solano (because he's had a bad couple weeks?) or sending Wallner down costs us either a good RH batter and excellent team player, or deletes a young player who has done nothing but produce when given the chance. To add a fairly equivalent RH batter who is hitting like a lefty (that isn't as good as LH Wallner), and who likely has no future with the team while costing us a prospect (or more) who might have a future? The Twins biggest problem against lefties may well be they continue to sit their best LH hitters (like Julien, Kiriloff, and Wallner) instead of putting their best lineup on the field. Try that with the returned Polanco, and soon Royce Lewis, and keep the prospects. (Plus, DFA/trade Gallo, and put Byron on IL until he is healthy enough to play real baseball and open some slots for better players. Those two moves probably save 30 Ks a week.)

I really can't get too worked up about this. The Twins signed all of their draft picks except the two HS position players they picked last. Who might not have signed anyway, and who both have plenty of time to show they are worth drafting again. Got a chuckle out of spending some of it to close the deal earlier with Jenkins to save us stress. (Now if they'd failed to close that deal, I'd be feeling different, but giving a teenage millionaire a couple hundred K extra to save me stress is money wasted.)

I appreciate the research and thought process, but personally I think this is a year the Twins mostly sit out the deadline unless they find a Fulmer type or two. Their biggest problems on offense have been self-inflicted (continuing to play Byron every day and in the 3-hole even when he is constantly running off 0-20s and neutralizing rallies, the FO's love of Joey Gallo, and Rocco's obsession with sitting his best lefty bats when they face a lefty). Some of this they've already addressed (sitting Byron consecutive games and moving him down the order), and they have Polanco and Lewis coming back, and maybe Gordon, and Wallner/Larnach/Stevenson for OF depth, and even Chris Williams as potential right-handed pop. Let's save the prospects, and play the folks we'll need to make decisions on by December's roster deadlines. Last year Cleveland got a trade deadline 'F', the Twins mostly got B+/A grades, and yet the Guardians blew past us and finished 14 up (and knocked off the Yankees).

We almost never agree on anything, but OMG, yes. Yes. Yes. The experiment to use Byron as just a hitter was worth doing, but should have ended long ago, and now is pure mismanagement. I suspect Rocco (another wildly gifted OF whose career was sunk by chronic injury) is going overboard to provide chances he wish he'd had. But enough is enough. (And enough was reached about a month ago.)

Popkins is a scapegoat not the real problem. The real problem (other than Correa which might be Popkins influenced, but he's a big boy making final decisions himself) is health, roster construction, and how it is managed. Bringing in somebody else isn't going to change who Joey Gallo is (which might be someone sort of useful if he weren't on a team filled with whiffers). It's not going to fix Max Kepler. And both of those are lineup regulars blocking potentially better players. A new hitting coach isn't going to give Jorge Polanco healthy hammies, rush Royce a perfect oblique, or bless Byron with instant cures for knees, back, and whatever else is messed up. And a new hitting coach isn't going to get Rocco to stop putting the rally killing duo of CC and BB in the top 4, or keep him from benching some of his best hitters because of leftie pitchers (it's worked out so well, right?). Address the real problems, and if you need to change coaches (or managers or FO staff), do it in the offseason.

The problem with the Twins offense is clear. 5 players (Correa, Buxton, Gallo, Kepler, Polanco) were expected to be regular foundations at the plate. Only one (Correa) is likely to have a bounce-back in the second half; the others are hurt all the time and are likely to keep that up (Buxton, Polanco), or have established over the past couple seasons than they aren't as good as they once were (Gallo, Kepler). The problem isn't acquiring better players (the Saints starting OF is better than the Twins), it is opening slots in the batting order for better hitters by trading (even for a bag of balls) Kepler and Gallo, putting Byron on IL whenever his injuries overwhelm his ability to hit, and moving Correa/Byron down the order until they start to hit. Only the Souhan column that hints ownership might be losing its patience gives me any (and it is dim) hope Falvine/Rocco will take the needed steps. (And folks, Byron ain't playing in the field any time soon. Because he physically can't. But he also shouldn't be blocking up the DH spot hitting like he is. IL him until he can play baseball.)

Maybe Popkins is part of the problem, maybe not. I'd blame the FO, who added the King O' Ks to our OF, kept the fading Kepler (who Ks less, but isn't good and hasn't been for years), can't seem to admit acquisition mistakes, and built the lineup around chronically injured players (like Polanco and Buxton, who has been TERRIBLE since the end of April), though they did add a solid bat in Solano. Maybe its the manager who went through a brutal injury decline, and therefore (or for some reason) KEEPS running out two of his worst hitters (one injured all the time) in the top four of the order, like it was against the law to bat them lower until they snap out of it. Maybe it's all of the above. Brutal to watch whatever the reason.

Love the target, but if the return is young controllable pitching, this team can't afford it. Seriously, their biggest problems on offense are the presence of supposed key pieces who are underperforming (Correa at the plate, Byron, Gallo, Kepler) who the team cannot or will not move to make way for potential in-house solutions (like Wallner, Miranda, Larnach). Solutions that can't sit forever unused, because they will need to be protected or dealt or exposed, and they are all at an age where they should be getting some run. I get it with Carlos, I get it a bit with Byron (though they go to ridiculous lengths to keep him off the IL with serious negative impacts on the offense), and I don't get it at all with Kepler and Gallo. They've had almost half a season to show they are critical (and they aren't), there is almost no chance they are here next year, and Wallner/Larnach/Stevenson/Celestino could almost certainly replace them at the plate, and mostly in the field. I don't think it is bailing on the season to dump Kepler/Gallo; you are just taking a chance on one or more youngsters catching fire. And if they don't, the Twins need to know before the season is over. Clear the deadwood, look in-house for hitting, bolster the 'pen, and take your chances.

@darwin22 Sorry, I've been off-site a lot lately! @East Coast Twin has the vesting stat, and Polanco is highly unlikely to hit it. Spotrac seems to show the Twins would have the option at that point with a $1 million buyout if they decline the option. If Jorge has a completely healthy second half (not holding my breath on that), he'd be a bargain to renew even with an eye to trade. if he doesn't, the million seems like the rational bet with Julien on the scene and others who could play the position (like Lewis). But with this front office (see Kepler, Max) the rational isn't a given.

A healthy Polanco is an asset to the team, and a good potential trade chip. But he hasn't been able to stay on the field for almost a year now, and a constantly hurt Polanco is not an asset to the team, and is untradeable (and the clock is ticking on the trade deadline if he is to prove himself an asset). If Jorge can't get healthy, I can't see him back with the Twins next year. Julien, Lewis, and Kirilloff are already among the team leaders in OPS, and all are still on their way up with other possible replacements on the way.

As a few have pointed out (and the team's batting stats would confirm), if Miranda keeps hitting, you can easily find space for him at 1b (with some rotation through third and DH). Kepler's presence on the roster (and I say this as a long time Max fan) is beginning to border on malpractice of the sort that gets people fired. He shouldn't have been here to start (especially after signing Gallo), but any hopes of a resurgence are now gone. Kirilloff can play RF/1B/DH. Lewis can spell Correa while getting at-bats mostly at 3B and some at DH. Solano (whose long-season stats shows he can wear down if played too much) keeps his current role. The logjam clears a bit after this season with Kepler and Gallo gone. The real elephant in the room is actually Byron Buxton. Not that he can play CF right now, because he clearly cannot or he would be (you don't sit down the most dynamic OF in baseball if he is healthy). Every game (and there have been a few) where Byron runs wild on the bases, he either sits multiple games afterward, or runs off an 0-20, or both. He's clearly hurt. The Twins should be honest about his condition, and do what it takes to get him healthy enough to play in the field again (somewhere even if it isn't CF), because he isn't good enough as a hobbled batter to be blocking the DH spot full time. I was fine with him there when there were no bats clamoring to push him aside, but fortunately (with the arrival of Lewis, Julien, and Kirilloff with Miranda and Wallner pending) that isn't the case any more.

Another excellent Nelson post. Love the dream targets (and think they'll probably remain dreams, but fun ones.) The real need short term on offense is to add by subtraction, and give the in-house options some extended run (even... SHOCKINGLY.. the chance to see pitchers from both sides) to see if they are the solution. Some of those in-house options like Larnach and Wallner aren't actually that young any more, and you HAVE to know soon what you actually have. The sooner we know, the better chances of making a good move (or not make) at the deadline. A couple deletions (Kepler and Garlick) are obvious (Kyle can stick as a depth piece in St Paul, but he should never have been called up in front of Wallner, and never should again; pretty sure Wallner can hit the crappy 80 OPS+ against LH that 'lefty-masher' Garlick has posted this year). The bullpen is another issue for another day (I'd love Pagan gone, but sadly I haven't exactly seen other pitchers pushing to make room the Wallner has done on the OF rotation). I expect Max will be either a bag o' balls transaction (or a A level flyer). I've seen others proposing Polanco or Buxton as trade chips; nobody is trading for players who can't stay healthy unless you want to give them away. (And it isn't some goofy FO strategy to not play Buxton in the outfield; he isn't physically capable of it right now by all appearances. And by reports in The Athletic.)

Let's recap. Mahle was not having a good year last year, got Cincy a nice package based on previous good years (something I never considered a Twins "win", but a worthy gamble). Then he hurt his shoulder and missed most of the second half. Then he tore up his elbow. So, if the price is 5 and 15, absolutely not. Spend $15 million on a healthy arm next year (or $20 since that's what you'd sink on Mahle).

Max's ranking doesn't surprise me at all. He has been good-to-great defensively throughout, and had some potent (and one stellar) offensive year. But what jumps out about the top Ten isn't really greatness, but the lack of extended greatness we've had in the OF since the Senators moved here. In 63-odd years we've had exactly 5 serious long-term OF stars (Byron doesn't make that cut yet, and may never as the injuries and lack of OF time pile up). Not even one per decade, which isn't great. I love Max (have a Kepler jersey), and after some time will focus mostly on the fun times, but am unlikely to ever think of him as one of the greatest (any more than I think that of Shane Mack, though I have fond memories of him as well; good not great player).

It isn't really time yet, but that time may be coming fast as more of the younger players start to take their deserved spot in the batting order. The real problem isn't Byron's bat compared to the rest of the league, it is Byron's bat (or really Byron/MAT combined) vs an alternative (or the alternative/Byron combined). (And FYI, you say "including" MAT's better performance in April like you should only count the worst games. Not sure why; output goes up and down for everyone.) Of the alternatives you mention, only Polanco makes much sense to me (Gallo's value plummets if you take away D, Correa has been dreadful so far, and probably should go on the DL), because it is really Kepler keeping Wallner (and Larnach) in the minors more than it is Byron. But mixing in Jorge, Solano, Kirilloff, Lewis, Farmer, Jeffers, and giving Wallner/Larnach more play in the DH spot makes a lot of sense, and if Miranda snaps out of it and re-finds himself, the pressure to get Byron back in the OF grows rapidly. This offense needs more quality at-bats, even if it means heightened risk to Buxton, and Max Kepler being traded/DFA'd soon. (Love Max, but he looks like this year's Tyler Duffey.)

To answer the OP's question directly, no I am not worried. Why? The answers are all right there; catchers are primarily important on D, and "all accounts" say he is doing that job well. His professional play behind the plate is a big reason the SPs are MLB front runners in several categories. The hitting is up and down, but that is almost always the case when you compare full data sets (as in complete seasons) to partial data (as in a couple months). I still love the signing, and am not discounting Vasquez's example for helping Jeffers mature. As others have mentioned, a more equal split in duty would be helpful to both, and that doesn't make the Vasquez contract bad; it confirms the wisdom of signing (and paying) a true pro to an area of deep need.

I really like Max; have a Kepler jersey. And I think he has been awful offensively for years. I also hate the shift ban as giving in to limited skill players too stupid to learn to hit the other way (or even lay down a freakin' bunt if you are a lefty; looking at you, Max). But... The early going makes it appear the shift ban is doing two things. 1. Kepler is getting some hits that last year would have been outs. 2. (Maybe) the extra hits seem to have him more relaxed at the plate instead of mentally fighting (and losing) the mental game against the shift. Coming into the year, I wanted the Twins to serve the teams needs and not let Kepler stand in the way of a better younger player. Kepler hitting more like .240/.250 with pop (instead of a weak .210/.220) IS the better player until the kids prove better. Which is the way it should be on a good team.

The real problem is we are not just short a middle reliever. Moran skipped AAA (except for a few messy outings), and it looked for a while (last year) like that worked. Now his MLB stats are starting to get messy as well, and it may just be he isn't good enough/isn't ready. Pagán hasn't had a few bad outings, he was a toss-in on a trade because his HR/innings pitched is brutal, and has been for years. And there is the revolving door at the multi-innings spot (where Sands has actually had several chances to kick in the door; unfortunately the frisbee slider comes with erratic control, and when Cole has to throw a strike, the fastball is very, very hittable). These three weak links haven't burned us (too much) so far, but it is a long season, and we can't essentially cede games down a few runs and the SP out after 3, because we can't afford to burn out our "A" RPs, and the only alternative is a rack of Molotov cocktail arms. Winder would be nice (if healthy). Maeda is possibly a great alternative (putting a Grade A arm in the 'pen, and calling on our deeper reserve of AAA starters). But this is also an area where offseason moves fell short, and if there is going to be a mid-season move, right now another very good reliever would be at the top of my shopping list (at least for now). (Good thing is RPs are a far cheaper/more readily available "get" than trying to rebuild half of the rotation, which is our usual goal.)

Moran has plenty to prove at AAA (he has hardly pitched at that level, and he pitched pretty poorly when he did; 24 IP, 14 BB, 6.00 ERA, 1.6+ WHIP), and he should start on that tomorrow. Call up Ober in his stead if Maeda is not going on the IL, and regardless, start Ober in Maeda's slot next time around. I also had enough of the Archer dance last year, and would rather the Twins just put Kenta on IL for 10 days then give him rehab starts in St Paul. If after 3 or 4 he is strong enough for a regular turn, great; if not, just leave Ober in there, and let Maeda work out of the 'pen until he feels he is ready for a stretch-out and return to the rotation. (They need to control Maeda's innings anyway, this lets them do it.) Maeda instead of Moran in the bullpen sounds great to me. Pagán should be gone after this... but let's face it. He has pictures of Falvine and Rocco, or he has them hypnotized, or whatever. But sadly the "magic" probably still holds, and we are stuck with Emilio randomly blowing up on us for eternity.

Great article! I would dearly love to see Polanco healthy and back; it would return our quality backups to backups, and I strongly suspect it would mean occasional days at DH, and the occasional return of Byron to CF if he up to it (making the lineup stronger in two ways). I've mostly put Kirilloff in a mental refrigerator more to preserve my own sanity than because I know how things will turn out (I don't). But your words, and the fact he is playing regularly and hitting has a thaw going; I'm starting to dream about how a hale Alex and that lovely swing could transform the lineup, and like Polanco, there is a clear regular spot for him at first (and a corner OF slot). The others are definitely something to look forward to, and while injuries may clear space, at some point the Twins are going to have to make deliberate room for some or move them via trades (can't make those mid-season moves without chips of your own), or the newbies are going to have to force the issue by beating out veterans. Which is as it should be.