PatPfund

I guess I agree keeping Rocco makes sense, but the jury is still out on whether or not it is the right call. This makes two epic collapses (from 1st place to 14 games out, all after September 2, '22) in three years. The culprit both times was mainly talent-related (3 of our top SPs by games pitched were Bundy, Archer, and Smeltzer; only Smeltzer made it to '23 and that for only 9 games; Celestino was the main CF), but Rocco teams have a disturbing tendency to go belly-up far too often. (Everyone focuses on the last 6 weeks, but this team was AWFUL against good teams all year long. I look at Boston which has its own issues, but Cora's team kept fighting all year. And none of the players felt a need to point out they weren't the White Sox. One reason the OP doesn't mention, but also makes sense; if the team starts terribly next year, it will be tough for both Falvey and Rocco to hide, and you usually let the new head of baseball operations hire their own manager.

I'd probably put ownership at a D, and the Falvines at F. The Front Office was given a clear number (and one $30 million higher than in Cleveland) early and they were coming off a year where building Starting Pitching depth just won them a division and playoff series. Instead of adding one or two #3-type SPs (well within budget as the market shook out), they spent on crappy veteran bats, and washed up/injured pitching. Even Santana was at best a neutral move (at an offensive position, he had one stellar OPS+ month in June, one worthy of a backup 1B in September, and 4 months where he hit at a backup utility IF rate aka horribly). I see a clearer path for the FO to improve (they've clearly made good moves before) than possibly Rocco whatever their respective grades. (Lewis's comments about things falling on the youngest players, and the comment about 'we're not the White Sox' after being pushed to 2B in the middle of a playoff chase smacks of the manager losing the clubhouse. Something easier lost than regained.)

I do love the Twins, and have since I was a kid basing my batting stance on my two baseball heroes (my dad and Tony Oliva). Your question is valid and (like anything having to do with people) the answers are complicated, and to some extent involves me (even as a self-identified Twins lover). Globally, the game seriously damaged itself by tolerating player-induced slow downs, and that definitely includes me. (I remember watching the Twins on a mid-30s evening playing a dull game so slowly that it was a freakin' hour+ before the 9 hitter got an at-bat, and 75 minutes before he got a second.) I gradually stopped going to games as a giant waste of time, especially once the minors started working on the solutions. I think it also hurt the game when a lot of playoffs went behind paywalls (and the games there got the most bloated; 4.5 hours was common), I just stopped paying attention except in the paper unless my team was involved.. The game is much better now, but the damage lingers especially when you look at audience by age. Minnesota specifically tends to have a very dark view on their teams' success; it probably isn't a coincidence that Charlie Brown constantly whiffing at the football after getting re-hyped by Lucy was drawn up by a Minnesotan. The Vikings have lost 4 Super Bowls, the Timberwolves finally look good but are historic in their NBA badness, and the Twins have had a LOT of awful mixed in with the less regular success including the emotional buzz-kill often delivered by ownership (brutally cheap under Calvin, the Pohlads winning it all then trying to sell the team out of existence, etc). I disagree about the '24 Twins; they are okay, but not good (belly up against good teams and only .500 because they almost swept the White Sox). They also started horribly after the budget cuts, which looked really bad. But the promise of being better is there, and I'll be there next year, though unless the owners and FO make a serious effort this offseason (which doesn't have to be expensive; sign Lorenzen instead of trading Margot and signing Jackson, and you still make the playoffs without spending a penny extra), I wouldn't count on tons of younger fans, and without them the team's problems are going to get better.

I am truly happy he got to 100, and had impact when he played. But it is fairly depressing that the organization essentially threw away the effort by spending its meager resources on used-up RPs and ineffective veteran bats (most of whom will be lucky to be playing at all next year).

Well, to the headline question, I'd say the answer is a clear NO. In the last six weeks the Twins have fallen from contention for the division and one of the best records in baseball to competing with the White Sox for the worst finish in baseball. The only way to save a major step-back season is to finish with a clean win of the final wild card followed by at least one post-season series victory. And I ain't holding my breath.

Hated Santana early, but then he started to hit, and he has turned into pretty much the only offseason move that worked out for the Front Office. Still, I can't see him back; the Twins' biggest need last offseason was a starting pitcher, they skipped that for spending on a few veteran bats (Santana, Margot, Farmer), and marginal veteran 'pen arms all since cut/rattling-around-the-minors. Only way I see Santana back is if the Twins acquire the (still) needed SP using some of the internal solutions. Which I don't think includes Kirilloff; I think there is a greater chance he retires this offseason or is DFA'd to make 40-man space than the Twins count on him as a key lineup piece.

What @Craig Arko said. And frankly the Twins need to forget all three teams, and use the last games of the season to (re)figure out how to beat teams on a regular basis, and at least put a scare into those above us. Because if we enter the last week worrying about tie-breakers with Detroit or intra-division records this is just a race to become playoff practice fodder for some team with higher aspirations. Maybe scraping into the playoffs for a quick first round exit would have been fine a few years ago, but as defending division champions, this team was set up for much more even given a reduced budget. The aim needs to be higher than losing out on the 3rd wild card.

If it was just the $2 million this year, you could razz ownership for not taking a shot, but next year makes it toxic. Period. The Twins' payroll next year is at its worst confluence of peak salaries (Correa, Buxton, Lopez), and a TV contract situation that might be worse than ever. No way I want a washed up reliever eating up $12 million, just so we can lock down (maybe) a wild card berth this year. Hell, $12 million is just about what Lorenzen and Lugo are making this year, and some here want to waste it on the ghost of Taylor Rogers?! Just freakin' convert Varland, and hope some of the hurt players get better. (If they don't along with some of the healthy players getting better, a couple dozen relief innings isn't going to matter much anyway.)

Well, anything is possible, but trying to do statistical analysis of one inning's output is essentially void of any real meaning (like predicting someone will go hitless or bat .750 based on the first two games of the year). So this is pure speculation, and despite supposed interest elsewhere, Blewitt got a resounding empty room echo on his brief attempt at free agency. He'll have a chance to prove he can be useful in St Paul.

Loved this. My hope (like the OP's) is that Paddack is OK for next year, though renewed arm issues make it seem like he might be better in the bullpen (dominant for shorter stretches in-game, but longer stretches season-wise). Honestly, if Vázquez keeps hitting, I'd probably look to trade him and Larnach ($12 million minus whatever comes back), and I wouldn't offer arbitration to Kirilloff or Stewart (a few more million). Don't see any way out on the Sheriff, so they'll need to use him if they can, or eat money if they can't.

Yes. He's a veteran pro, a leader, a champion, and a rock of stability for a team that gave Gary Sanchez a big run the year before Vázquez was signed. And the job-share with Jeffers is well into a second season of the Twins having fully healthy catchers (which is a rare thing for the position in MLB, and super-rare for just about any position on the Twins).

AK's looks to be one of those sad "what if" MLB tales. I'm guessing the wrists are the prime culprit; the bone-shaving operation was always a last ditch effort, and an experimental one at that, and there is NO sign it worked. After rest, Kirilloff can have a strong spurt which then invariably fades into weak-rollover-swing-mode, just as you'd expect from a key joint getting inflamed from hard use. (Exactly like Buxton's knee last year.) I'm not as concerned about the D, because judging that on someone battling injury isn't super useful.... except in this case where the injury has every sign of being unfixable and chronic. With poor D, poor O, and no solution, save the $2 million and move on.

The best way to improve the team at the deadline is to sell off 2 of the 3 offseason additions (Farmer, Margot, and Santana), because the replacements (Lee, Martin, and Miranda) are flat-out better. The clear biggest need is in the rotation, but I don't see that happening now (we should have signed Lorenzen when he was cheap, but that ship has sailed); the best addition is likely a solid arm for the 'pen (and just hope the rotation doesn't fall apart).

The trade-deadline tends to be mostly a fool's market with teams paying inflated prices for mostly hope-hyped spare parts. The last two AL Central champs both got poor "grades" at the deadline, then ran away with the division. Given the Twins' looming budget crunch next year, and the horrible TV money situation, I can't really see the Twins swinging big this year, and I'm fine with that. Add a solid bullpen arm or two (like they did for low cost in the best of these deals), and maybe be a creative seller (move Farmer and Margot cheaply to teams needing veteran help and you make playing time space for Martin and Lee and the team gets better through subtraction).

You may be right (though ST stats are mostly useless). I made a similar prediction about Solano last year (mostly based on ST at-bats), and spent the last 5 months of the season laughing at myself. The joy of predictions!

The OP is a solid argument for seeing Castro more at 3B, though I expect there will be a fair amount of Farmer there as well. I'd also call up Martin first. It is time, and (especially if Kepler is dinged up) the Twins need OF help more than infield help. I strongly suspect Julien is also going to force more playing time very soon. He is a good athlete with the drive to improve his game where it is weakest; he's already shown it on the defensive side, and he put a focus on hitting lefties in the offseason. Last season's batting-against-LH-stats may soon be as useless as last season's first half defensive stats became to judging Julien's current defensive ability. But if not, Martin plays a decent 2B. (But I could also live with a Martin in LF, Byron in CF, Wallner in RF outfield in the short run with Castro playing more infield.)

I wouldn’t pull the plug on the season yet. Might be a chance to give Lee a taste of MLB. Or see if Miranda is back, and at least it isn’t another knee.

I'm hoping you are wrong on Byron and Lee, but that is only hope. My main hope on Byron is that he plays healthy roughly half of the season, and they IL him when he isn't healthy instead of cluttering the in-season roster with walking wounded. I think you are right on Julien, so I'd love to see the Twins also give Lee some play for the Saints in LF (he's a good enough athlete to pick it up), because the Twins OF looks like the sketchiest part of their lineup. Wallner looks pretty solid, but you covered concerns on Byron, and Kepler is not only a year older (and thus injury prone), but has only one half-season of hitting excellence in the past few years. Maybe Larnach learns to hit off-speed pitches, but just in case I'd love a couple MLB-bat-ready options at AAA, and right now I just see Martin. My "bold" prediction is that Santana turns out to be the Joey Gallo Roadblock Award winner for 2023 (which is why by mid-season I see Kirilloff being too valuable there to play a ton of OF). 1B is an offense-first position, and carrying a two-year-over-the-cliff bat there not only blocks better hitters, but it means we can't have Celestino-like ABs from our corner OFs. (If only we'd spent the Santana/Jay Jackson money on Michael Lorenzen. Sigh.)

Well expressed argument, I don't agree, but I get the sentiment! I guess my answer would be that the players did get a chance to communicate, and just like in a regular game, the communication may be lost if the manager does go to the 'pen. Especially in the heat/humidity of Florida, I'm fine with training rules that maximize player prep and health for the real games.

Good to hear about the new pitch. One unmentioned way for Ober to exceed last year is to up the innings pitched while maintaining the quality. Last year was a record IP year for Bailey, and it included the late trip to the minors after he looked like he hit a fatigue wall. No complaints about last year's usage, but if he can stay healthy another 20-35 innings might come pretty naturally, and would be a big lift.

The plan to go with Santana as the main 1B is lunacy that isn't sustainable. He's been a sub-par 1B bat for years now, and isn't going to find a fountain of youth playing in the field everyday (at an age Nelson Cruz just had to worry about hitting). Maybe, just maybe you can coax a good year out of Santana by saving wear-and-tear as an auxiliary bat and late-game defender (though I don't believe it; he's looked done for a while now). Best bet is to push Kirilloff to up his defense (1B isn't rocket science) and hit for his job. Same for Miranda and Severino at AAA, and if either hits in a way to indicate they are ready, the Twins should eat Santana's salary, cut him, and use the DH to rotate people through days off in the field. (Or if Alex can't hit, and Santana looks workable, then send Kirilloff down.)

This team is in such a better place than a year ago. Healthy Buxton, healthy Correa, healthy Kirilloff, healthy Lewis, healthy Paddack, potential full seasons from Julien and Wallner, a seemingly rejuvenated Max Kepler, a serious trio of impact players likely sitting at AAA (Miranda, Martin, Lee), a nice 4th OF in Margot, and maybe one of the best catching tandems in baseball. In many ways, this was a good off-season to not spend a lot of money, and lean into the development of our own talent. (In fact, I'm pretty sure the Twins wasted nearly $7 million on Santana, who looks cooked, and Jackson, who looks unremarkable and has no options which isn't ideal for a back-of-the-'pen arm.) Still, like many, I wish we'd nabbed a #3 or higher SP. I love Varland as this year's Ober, but Paddack and DeSclafani are both coming off years of injury-limited pitching, and our rotational depth is likely to be tested early and often. (Though, if wishes were fishes, we'd all...)

No hate at all; I actually love him (and think his defense used to look pretty good, and is likely to improve now that he doesn't have parts falling off of him). Plus, I never said he was Larnach, but I do believe he needs to stay healthy and hit as he has flashed or he is in serious danger of being bypassed. Brooks Lee may force his way to 2B displacing Julien who has been healthier and has out hit Alex so far. If Miranda is recovered, his bat is likely to force playing time, as might Severino. I'd get rid of Santana first (I think he's this year's Joey Gallo), but if Kirilloff gets dinged up, and somebody produces in his absence, well... even Jorge Polanco found himself mostly on the outside looking in, and he had a far deeper record than Kirilloff. I'm pulling for him, but he needs to stay healthy and produce, because the team has better options than last year.

Never might to too strong a word, but given the options already on the 40-man, and others like Lee pressing for that status very soon, Kirilloff is looking Larnach status (high prospect/had the job/bypassed/struggling to remain relevant) straight in the eye. Probably easier to keep the gig than have to re-sell the team on your talent.

Great piece (as usual!). I was pretty sure Correa was hurting last spring from something given the folderol about skipping almost all the ST games because he 'gets better benefit from hitting in the cage versus games.' Paired with the team's chronic under/misinformation concerning injuries (seriously, I just hear the Charlie Brown teacher noise now every time the Twins talk malady) that sounded fishy, and in retrospect I'd guess the heel was already hurting (something you aggravate more running than just hitting in the box). Hopefully the foot stays cool this season, or the Twins get more proactive with managing it (we didn't really need to wait until September to give the guy a couple weeks off; a couple extra stretches like that in-season probably would have yielded a ton of extra offense).