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PatPfund

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  1. PatPfund
    As noted in some comments, this team improved dramatically when they started leaning on the younger players (Julien, Wallner, Lewis), and they should lean into that in the coming season. Plan around Martin being in CF (FYI, RH hitter, patient, steals bases big time). Wait in FA until a CF gets cheap (ideally MAT) and sign them as a mentor/4th OF. Groom Camargo, Polanco and Wallner at 1B (where you also have RH-hitting Miranda healthy and LH Kirilloff starting), play Julien mostly at 2b (his D was probably better than Jorge's near the season's end), keep Kepler in RF (unless a great deal comes for Max or Polo); trade Farmer (who does have value; check out the FA SS position, and some key teams that need 2b/SS). You aren't getting a Lopez-type by trading Farmer or Larnach (a couple I'd shop), but you might score a serviceable arm. The wild card is trading someone like Julien, Lee, Rodriguez, etc for a top starter, but even if don't, staying with in-house solutions and a cheap CF should leave FA money to sign a decent SP or two. (You don't need to "replace" Gray directly if you get healthy and/or improved production from the aggregate roster.)
  2. PatPfund
    It makes for fun speculation, but baseball doesn't really work like this. Next year's Twins will not be just like this year's, so you are not replacing Gray, you are building a competitive overall roster. It may have more balanced offense, a more consistent and better bullpen, and starting pitching not as deep as this year (or deeper depending on adds or trades of improvements by current staff). Given the payroll setup, I'd expect adds to come in trades from strength (like last year) and late organizational depth adds. That last has worked better for the Twins (Castro, Solano) than for pitching, but I'm willing to give this FO a bit more trust this offseason than after the Bundy/Archer/MattyShoe years. (Though I'd like them to concentrate the off-season on arms, where they have both need and where in-season moves are far more expensive than acquiring position players.)
  3. PatPfund
    The Twins should indeed wait, and focus their resources on pitching. I don't see any a real path to Farmer being back (if you are cutting payroll, $6-7 mill for a backup?), plus he would be a good trade chip (SS is thin this offseason). That means you keep Castro free to spell Correa, Lewis, and add a RH bat at times to the OF. Tell Martin to prep for CF (if we have Castro, we don't need another super-utility), and Martin adds another patient bat. If he plays well in the spring take him north. Dude is 25, he was a 5th overall pick, so he isn't being rushed, and frankly I'm freakin' tired of the Twins signing has-beens who just block real prospects (the way Gallo did last year). If Taylor's market cheapens (which it might do) sign him as insurance/mentor/4th OF. If Martin crashes or needs more seasoning, Keirsey and Helman could be other (cheaper, better than retread) options. Byron's days as a main CF are probably done; I just hope he can figure out a way to stay playable even in a reduced role, because last year was brutal after the first 5-6 weeks. OFs are also much easier to get in-season than pitching (Bader was available for a waiver claim), so there are options if it isn't Martin right away.
  4. PatPfund
    If the Twins are serious about cutting payroll, this is where you do it. The Saints OF was so good this year that even after several call-ups (and the release of Mark Contreras essentially for this reason) former Twins "mainstay" Gilberto Celestino had problems staying on the field, and was eventually let go himself. Austin Martin, DeShawn Keirsey, and Michael Helman can all play CF; Martin and Helman hit RH. You traded a staff ace for Martin, a 5th overall pick who just had a great season at AAA. If not now, when? Our need for RH hitters is also over-rated; Miranda, Lewis, Correa, and Buxton all hit RH, and there is great reason to expect the first three to have healthier, more productive years in 2024. (Byron remains a cypher; I hope the latest operation is more effective than last year's, but if his knee has chronic issues, we may have already seen the best we will see there.)
  5. PatPfund
    Lee looks interesting as someone playing a position of need (we don't need a backup CF, we need a starter and I'm not even believing the real backup is Buxton until he can actually play a full game there without immediately going on the IL again). But I expect the Twins to do very little before the end of the year, and then focus resources on pitching (unless they create a new need through trading bat(s) for arm(s)). There are in-house/inexpensive options on the hitting side if resources are slender.
  6. PatPfund
    The Twins just don't do this sort of thing, and frankly for good reason. I do think they will add at least one big upside SP, and it is most likely to be through trade. Ryu or Maeda are more likely in the FA range the Twins live in, and adding a couple arms to create pitching depth worked well last year.
  7. PatPfund
    I agree pretty much with the percentages. Maeda and MAT would be great to have back. I can't really see Solano back until very late (if it turns out a key IF is still hobbled by injury); there are too many replacements (even if Farmer is gone) with Miranda, Kirilloff, Castro, maybe Gordon, and possibly Severino (dude co-led the minors in HR, plays Solano's positions, and will have to be added to the 40-man). Guessing they trade for a pitcher, though, which may shift needs depending on who goes.
  8. PatPfund
    Maeda or Ryu at those costs could be done. Gray would be the best, but not at what he'll cost (this past year reeks of outlier in both results and health making three years iffy). Not interested in any hitters floated here or elsewhere so far; the Twins have plenty of right-handed bats who hopefully will see far more, and far better years next year (Lewis, Miranda, Correa, Vasquez, maybe Buxton to name a few). Adding a temp player just makes for roadblocks for longer term solutions (see Gallo, Joey).
  9. PatPfund
    Let the fun planning begin (on an excellent base of kNelson Knowledge)! I'd be protecting the top 4 on MiLB player list for sure. Used to have big hopes for Winder, but he (and Sands) have looked pretty fungible the last two years; some nice moments, but pretty replaceable. I expect (as they have recently) the Twins will pursue an SP through the trade route, especially early. Any FAs are likely to be later "value" adds if someone's market isn't as hot as expected. (Which is good since there is a surplus on the position side. Might be a stinger like Wallner or Julien, though, instead of Polanco or Kepler as the lure of youth rules.) I guess I also see Bryon as a bench player right now, and not even a half-time CF until he shows he can do it. And it has been years. There is at least one former Gold-Glover coming off a great defensive year and a career high HR season, that they could talk to.
  10. PatPfund
    Can’t really expect a premium year with plantar fasciitis; in the field or at the plate. Hopefully he feels better next year, and maybe gets some extra rest days. In some ways he’ll never live up to his contract, and in others he already has. I’m happy with what we have, and I’m glad we have two great foundation blocks in Correa and Lopez to build around. (I remember some metric rating his arm as average last year; cracked me up no end.)
  11. PatPfund
    Well, they need to trade or waive some players given the coming 40-man crunch. Farmer (as well as Polanco, Gordon, Larnach, Winder, Sands, etc) could be the piece or part of a package that brings back the most. You make a good argument, and Nick Nelson’s high upside pitcher would be a worthy target.
  12. PatPfund
    Pretty much agree with the list except I'd put hitting approach at the bottom of the list, behind my added "Figure out a plan for CF." (Re-sign Taylor? Give Martin a chance along with Castro to be '24's MT? I have zero hope Byron is any answer here.) To differ from some comments, 1B is indeed a big problem; Solano was pretty much the only option left a 1B in the playoffs, and while he is a nice backup piece... yikes! Internal options are indeed the best; Miranda in particular assuming his shoulder heals. (Maybe another item should be to remind Jose and Carlos not to leave their best seasons in the offseason gym. Train, yes. But durable beats "sexy" every time on the ballfield.) Finance is going to call a lot of this, I'd love to see Gray and/or Maeda back, but only on deals that are realistic about their ages and injury history, and that won't happen unless the market brings them back to us. (I'd also buy Wallner a 1B glove, and work him there. Fabulous target and more 1B depth.) I'd also bet at least one pitcher comes in via trade, and also that they chase a second. One way to convince Louie to go to the 'pen would be to give him a full chance to start in the spring, then find himself where Ober was last spring. Bet he'd go 'pen instead of going down to AAA.
  13. PatPfund
    I was 45, Tony Oliva was my childhood idol, and I definitely remember the WS years vividly. I liked where the Twins were going (well, where I thought they were going) in '04. In all honesty, though, the Twins in this loss streak era were a good not great team. Their rotation was filled with a bunch of #3 pitchers once Santana was gone, and that plays fine over a season overmatching some 3s, and all the 4s and 5s, but come playoffs the focus is on 1s and 2s, and the Twins just didn't match up. It was freaky they lost all the games, but not so freaky they lost all the series. This team is different with some really strong starters (including the yet-to-toss Ober), and if we can wake up the sticks, the Twins can compete with anyone.
  14. PatPfund
    Even more than the starting pitching (barring injury it should be Lopez, Gray, and Ryan with Ober or Maeda as the 4th guy when needed), the Twins need to work on the bullpen over the final games. How many are they keeping, and what are the roles? Add Paddack, Stewart, and/or Alcala? Drop Winder, Keuchel and/or Funderburk? I think Jax can be a key piece, but he has always been weak when overworked, and that's where he is now. Byron may (or may not) be back for the post-season, but I only see it as DH/PH. The guy hasn't played in an MLB outfield for over a year, he has constant leg issues, and he isn't getting any younger. His team kept him out of the field all year, because they didn't feel he was up to it (and he didn't exactly argue with them about it). We may never see the 'old' Byron again, but for sure I don't want to parachute him into a key defensive position covered with a year-plus of rust.
  15. PatPfund
    Great article with the outside perspective, and a good trade for both teams. I miss Luis, but the team dealt from surplus, and picked up an absolute rotation anchor (then extended him) while finding an excellent leadoff hitter in the system.
  16. PatPfund
    I don't want to skip to the end, because I think we have other X factors on the horizon like Stewart and Alcala (who in particular would need to show effectiveness at the MLB level before being a possible post-season add). More than worrying about how Varland fits amongst the one inning RPs, I love how he can go out and dominate for 2-3 innings, which can be critical in playoff games where the starts are often cut shorter.
  17. PatPfund
    I have shockingly little interest in trading value players for a pending free agent. The Twins remain a mid-market team with long-ish sizable contracts already out on Correa and Buxton, and they have a wealth of young controllable talent to help keep them competitive as those contracts age (and nobody ever planned on them aging gracefully). We are so much better off with real depth (just consider how many Saints OFs have been called up this year, and blessedly none of them named Celestino), and if trades/extensions need to happen I'm more interested in pitching than a short term power bat.
  18. PatPfund
    Baseball is full of players whose careers are cut short by injury; one of them manages the Twins. Rocco was a young star, who lost a season-plus to a torn ACL followed by a torn UCL, and then was constantly on the IL with muscular issues complicated with mitochondrial and Lyme issues until he was forced to retire at age 28. None of us know for sure whether Byron will ever again approach his original potential, because none of us actually knows what the bleep is going on with his knee/back/hamstrings/hip. But all indicators (like the fact his knee feels better until he uses it) seem to point to a chronic knee injury, and it may be the sort that surgery can't fix. Clearly, though, this season is pretty much toast. He just had a knee setback with just a few weeks left to go (and even less in the minors for a rehab stint), and the team has better/healthier options at DH. Let him try to recover, shut it down if/when it is clear he can't help this year, and figure out the best plan for his off-season. (Personally, I'm bummed, but never really expect to see him be the "old" Buxton again. Dude once scored from second on a ground-ball to SS; dang, he was amazing!)
  19. PatPfund
    Gallo is indeed a mystery. Not going to rip the FO for the add, because several of their similarly mystifying moves (like Solano and Castro) have turned out really well. But there comes a time you need to call even your friends into the office a "toughest part of the job" talk, and that time is long past for Joey. (Now if they'd just put Correa on the IL and give Farmer some extended play at SS; watching Correa gimp home on the Jeffers sacrifice hurt MY feet. Inflamed tendons in the feet are not going to get better without rest, and that is better done before the playoffs.)
  20. PatPfund
    This is obviously post-OP, but after a solid 7 innings at the plate and in the field by Byron on Wednesday, and then a day off, he had to be pulled from Friday's game after two strike-out DH at bats with a sore knee. Hopefully I'm wrong, but everything I've seen since the first half of last season (including being shut down early and still not ready at the start of spring training, and frankly the Twins trying to keep him out of the OF) points to a chronic knee injury that may never let him play ball again. Or let him be anything like the Buxton we once knew. I'm now counting on nothing from him the rest of the year. Kirilloff and a dose of Castro Chaos would be welcome additions back. So would moving Correa down to 6th in the order until he starts hitting again. His penchant for hitting DPs absolutely snuffs good work being done at the top of the order.
  21. PatPfund
    If I had to guess likelihood of the three you named, I'd say Paddack is the most likely to be healthy and helpful, Alcala may be healthy, but not sure how helpful, and I'd love Stewart to be helpful, but I doubt he'll be healthy. Varland looks to me to be the most likely help they get from St Paul. Blistering heat the other night as a reliever.
  22. PatPfund
    The trade is fine as addition by subtraction. The Twins close the book on a trade that didn’t work, got an arm, and have a lower pain threshold if they need to release that arm. Which would have happened if we’d gotten waiver RPs. And like likely still will if a lot of arms return soon from IL (3-4 pending).
  23. PatPfund
    To make space on the 40 Man: Put Miranda on 60 day, let him and Gordon work at St Paul, but otherwise heal for next year. Waive Celestino as needed. Waive Luplow. Release Joey Gallo as needed, release Floro as needed Clear MLB roster for returns/claims (beyond releases above): option Sands, option Funderburk as needed, option Winder as needed. Activate: Castro when ready, Kirilloff when ready, Buxton when ready, maybe Alcala or maybe he works in St Paul and readies for next year if we get all three pitchers. Claim Giolito, Rodriquez, Cisnero I wouldn’t claim an offensive player since we have RH bats Castro and Buxton coming back, Lewis, Solano, Polanco, Jeffers, Vasquez, and Farmer along with Correa on the MLB team now.
  24. PatPfund
    We’ll never know how/if things were botched, because we’ve never really known the physical issues. He could feel better with rest because the extended rest has done some healing. Or maybe just cooled the problem until he starts playing again. Don’t know but it is sad I hope he stays on the IL longer.
  25. PatPfund
    Sure, work him out to see how that plays. Julien too (doesn't have to be either one, it can be both). Or Wallner. And please give Williams a shot before Garlick (we pretty much know Kyle, and Williams (along with his other Saints team-mates) don't freak when they see the bases full.
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