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PatPfund

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  1. PatPfund
    Great stuff!
  2. PatPfund
    Got out of work, turned on the radio in time to hear Ryan put the Yankees down 1-2-3 in the first, and then kind of laughed because I thought I heard Cory Provus say it was 9-0, and I knew that couldn't be true. (But it was! Freakin' awesome!)
  3. PatPfund
    OF is indeed a key position, and this was a great summary. If Taylor in the field means more healthy Byron at-bats, I'm fine with it (though I suspect at some point Buxton will get field time). Especially up to the point that we actually have some potent bats on the bench to DH (which with injuries and slow starts, we really don't). Max in particular needs to get healthy, and needs to start hitting, or he is a prime candidate to find bench time (or be this year's Tyler Duffey). Kepler (one of my personal favorites) isn't coming off a down year, but a batch of them with an increase in leg injuries mixing with a low average and loss of power. An outfield of Gordon, Taylor/Buxton, and Larnach/Gallo looks far more potent than one that includes Max (with Wallner and Lewis jostling to push Kepler further down the order). If Julien hits and/or Polo returns, Gordon's bat (like last year) may demand a run in the lineup, and that is most likely to be on the OF grass.
  4. PatPfund
    It is super early for too many snap judgements (I like a lot of what @Doctor Gastsays, but Julien only has one error at 2B, and Solano's brutal boot at 1B the other day on a slow roller was far from pretty well). Miranda has looked pretty bad at 3B, but it is also early, and he didn't even get to play the position much in Spring Training. Maybe they have to move him eventually, or maybe he evens out at third; time will tell. Upside is that if the pitching stays healthy and/or good the team has a great foundation for winning through the ups and downs of hitting cycles. And hitting is easier to fix than pitching whether it be internally (like Julien, Wallner, or later, Lee/Lewis), or externally through a trade in June/July. I don't really care about Buxton DHing right now (given the injured bats), because there aren't a lot of big bat alternatives on the pine (Solano and Farmer against lefties, sure, but both are historically not as good against RHs). But when Polanco comes back, he and Byron may need to split the DH as Designated Sore Knee Off Days. (Seriously) Hope I'm wrong, but my (admittedly medically ignorant) opinion is that Kirilloff shouldn't be counted on at all. Ever. Until he can actually play for a month. Which may be never. I also think the team is at least one good reliever short still, though hopefully Winder can help fix that soon. Love the Weekly Nelsons!
  5. PatPfund
    Polo for Castro, and I agree with your last sentence; I think Alex rehabs, then gets optioned to prove his wrists are actually healthy (short of injury need on the Twins). Unless Max flashes back to 2019, I see zero chance the Twins pick up the option. He is who he is, got no interest on the trade market last year, and is playing himself into a veteran defensive bench player (which the Twins frankly don't need). No way they are cutting Gallo in the foreseeable future after the KC games, and no way they are cutting Taylor at all since he gives the team a way to keep Buxton in the lineup with no loss on D. (Doubt they'd release Max either, but I'd do that before moving on from the other OF options. Assuming Max actually comes back from his knee anytime soon.) Larnach might have squeaked onto the roster, but he has quickly become a core roster player, his batting doesn't look flukey, and his increased walks cushion any batting average slump. I'm sure the Twins are planning on him long-term, so if he stays healthy, he's a Twin. Solano is a likelier cut (though he's also earning a longer leash with each strong game). Probably the dream for the team is to keep as many assets healthy, and thereby have something to deal at the deadline
  6. PatPfund
    I'd put Taylor right up there with Gray on the long side, and unless a CF prospect goes wild, Michael might be the most likely to return especially if Buxton is healthy most of the year playing PT in the field. I'd call Mahle a "long" given what they gave up, and his history, but not as long as Gray/Taylor. I think it will take an injury to get him superceded in the foreseeable future. But if he recovers, I'd be more willing to extend Mahle than Gray (due to age). I agree the Twins are probably medium on Solano, though he should be "short"; he's 35, and his last two seasons are pure average in OPS+. No way an aging mediocrity with no team heritage (or record of FT success) should block an MLB-ready prospect. Castro is the first send-down if a middle infielder starts knocking or Polanco comes back, but Solano is the easy 2nd move. (Ex: Jorge comes back PT, Julien starts hitting, and the Twins still need a leadoff hitter.) Totally agree with you on Pagán. Wish the Twins did too...
  7. PatPfund
    We probably aren't far apart (because neither really saw Sands making the Opening Day roster), but I sort of disagree with your last paragraph here assuming the Twins will be a competitive team. When you are down by 7, it really doesn't matter who comes in, any arm will do, but a good team probably has that happen once every couple weeks. Having a quarter of your 'pen being gas cans starts to hurt in two situations. 1. The SP struggles with control, uses a lot of pitches, but essentially needs to come out after 4 or 5, the team is down by a few, and you need a long arm to give the hitters a chance to rally (not somebody to eat innings while giving away the game). 2. A manager (let's call him Rocco for fun) gets in a habit of pulling people after 5 in competitive games, leans far too heavily on his top 4 RPs, and with them over-used finds himself forced to put 'low leverage' pitchers into high leverage situations (happened A LOT last year). As for amping up his stuff in a relief role, that is exactly what he was supposed to be doing this spring, and opponents beat him like a drum (12 innings pitched, 18 hits, 6 BB, 7 ER, 5.25 ERA, 2.00 WHIP per baseball-reference.com). That is more a stat line to get you released than one to make the 26-man, and if the Twins don't have a better option, I repeat that it is an indictment of their skipping the 'pen in the search for depth.
  8. PatPfund
    Sands making the Opening Day roster is a pretty clear sign the Twins overlooked the bullpen in their offseason-stack-up-quality-backups bonanza. He is the pitching equivalent of Gilberto Celestino; maybe Sands has the goods to play MLB someday, but he really hasn't shown it yet. I suspect his pitch selection has a lot to do with not being able to control his better pitches (thus the less-than-ideal walk rate), and at times having to throw fastballs to avoid walks. With Sands and Pagán, the Twins 'pen now has two (aka a full quarter of the RPs) pitchers you just don't want to pitch with a game on the line. Hopefully Winder and Henriquez heal quickly, and too bad the Twins didn't skip signing Solano (who looks like the Archer of position players, and instead use the money on an MLB RP. Or just keep Coulombe in the role instead of bowing to the lefty/righty fetishists. Unless he has copies of Pagán's pictures, Cole might easily be the first one dropped from the 26-man roster.
  9. PatPfund
    This should be an intriguing season, with what looks to be a strong foundation in the rotation and on defense, hopefully better base-running (the lowest of bars to clear after the '22 Debacle on De Bases), a couple big question marks in the 'pen (Pagán and Sands), and an offense could range from weak (Larnach, Gallo, Kepler, Taylor, Jeffers, Farmer, Solano, and Castro have similar/worse years than last year; Kirilloff, Polanco and Buxton limited by injuries) to fabulous (a few to several of the above step forward and Alex, Jorge, and Byron all play 100 games). Only real way to tell, is to roll the ball out there and get after it, and I am both hopeful and excited to see what the year brings!
  10. PatPfund
    Great piece. Baseball has been dying a slow death (emphasis on SLOW) in the US for a long time. Fewer and fewer watch it (it was startling that the highest rated Series game was around FORTY years ago), and/or play it. Recently on KFAN, one of the morning drive time hosts was asked which sport Mookie Betts played, and he had no idea. On another day something brought up requests to the sports gods, and one host said something like 'honestly, I wish they'd just make the Twins go away.' I think the rule changes (which are not even close to the first ones designed to speed up the game; umpires originally didn't call balls and strikes, and right into the 20th Century, I don't believe foul balls were ever strikes) will help. But clearly baseball still has the juice to drum up electric crowds and games, and MLB will need to foster that, and channel it if the game is to have a future. Viva the WBC!
  11. PatPfund
    I think Castro will essentially replace Gordon's role (backup OF/IF), which might be a need because I think Gordon is the primary replacement for Polanco. We don't actually know if Castro's numbers are a mirage or a breakthrough (dude isn't even 26 yet, and got thrown into the deep end of the pool early in Detroit). Plus, he is fast (pinch runner in the ninth or when we need a late stolen base), and hits from either side. Then I think the team options him when Polanco is back, or after a month if Julien keeps raking (then he takes second, Gordon goes back to UT, and Castro goes to St Paul. Hoffman could make the team, but I could also see him be an early non-injury release.
  12. PatPfund
    Umm. This just in. Solano looks terrible. He's 35 and no longer has the range of somebody you'd want out there half/most days. He's had precisely two (out of 9 pro seasons) really good batting years by OPS+ standards; 2019 at 116, and the short year of 2020 at 127 (in neither did he appear in more than 81 games). His OPS+ last year was 97, and he is currently hitting .040 (1 for 25) in ST. Farmer's OPS+ last year was 90, but at least he can play defense to make up for it. I'd start Gordon agains all lefties, Farmer against RHs, and give Solano a chance to get into the mix (but if he isn't hitting by the end of March, you start the countdown clock for Julien and the cutdown clock for Solano). Willie Castro would be a good add until Polanco is ready (and if his knee is bad enough after 8-9 months that he's still limping, I doubt we are talking a few weeks). And Larnach for Kirilloff. (Gallo can play 1B, Larnach can DH/OF, and Castro can fill the Gordon UT role since he'll mostly be at 2B.) If it were me, I'd release Solano out of ST, sign him to a minor league deal when he clears waivers, or wave goodbye if he walks. Castro is 10 years younger, is likely to hit the same, hits from both sides, and plays more positions than Solano including OF.
  13. PatPfund
    Not likely all three? The Twins admit that Kirilloff is behind their recovery timeline for what they also called a last resort surgery (hence the article we are commenting on). Polanco has yet to appear in a game, and Gordon is set (according to Baldelli) to play a lot of 2B in the coming week. (Which appears to be both concern about Polanco, but also the best current plan, because Gordon is a better move than Solano there.) That leaves Buxton, who DID play yesterday against minor leaguers, and hopefully is healthy, though there is pretty much nothing in his history that says he will play over 100 games. And yeah, I can take platoon players and point out their deficiencies, because having to play them out of their 'platoon' strength situations is highly likely if two or all three 'missing' Twins remain out or limited. I'm not actually gloom and doom, because there do seem to be rays of hope from Gallo and Kepler this spring, and those two could pick up the offensive loss of Kirilloff, and cover for the drop of leaning on platoons. But until Solano hits, he just looks like a position player version of Joe Smith. I agree with you about the timing for Julien, and if Donnie doesn't start hitting some barrels, cutting Solano is how I'd make space for him.
  14. PatPfund
    There are two options on Kirilloff. A (hopefully) he is still in recovery from a fairly experimental surgery, and we might see him in a month or so. B (fearfully), the radical surgery, essentially deemed a 'last resort' by the Twins has failed, and Kirilloff will never play in the majors again. I don't expect either Alex or the team will give up without giving the young man every chance, but option B now looms, and certainly has to be planned for at this point. Most of the options here are frankly weak. On many days (especially if Polanco and/or Buxton are also limited) the Twins' order would have these below average 2022 OPS+ ratings: Gallo (79), Kepler (90), Farmer (90), Solano (97), Taylor (90). A couple of them playing DH and 1B where you are supposed to have premium bats. That is crossing your fingers for a whole lot of bounce-back seasons, or hoping your pitchers throw a LOT of shutouts. Larnach (if healthy) must be on the roster if Kirilloff is not, and he and Gordon need to play in front of Farmer and Solano. @TwinsDr2021 is absolutely correct in this, and in the alternatives (Wallner and Julien who clearly looks ready to hit MLB pitching). Frankly, if Solano doesn't hit better than his current spring average of .067, by the end of March he is the guy I'd cut to make room for a youngster. He's 35, coming off a down year, and a "utility" guy likely to play sub-par D at most of his positions without the bat to make up for it. Julien can do that and likely hit much better.
  15. PatPfund
    I'm glad for Gilberto that he'll get a chance to develop in the minors this year. I'm also glad for myself that I won't have to watch him in a Twins uniform. I get why he was jumped to the majors. I (and everyone else) saw he clearly was in over his head. Last year was disappointing because the Twins essentially did little prep for another Byron injury, and because Celestino was still clearly in over his head. His defense is okay, not great. He still struggles with fundamentals like where to throw the ball, and how to run bases. He gets the least out of his speed of any fast guy I've seen in recent times. And little of that is out of his control; he should have a better grip on the game by 24. Maybe he gets better, and earns his way back. Or maybe players like Martin, Lee, and Lewis, who are all better offensive threats, push Gilberto aside on their march to the majors (they can't all play infield), and he never makes it back to Mpls as his home field. I honestly don't know which it will be, but I'd lean a bit toward the last option. (If Martin has to have Tommy John surgery, that might be Gilberto's biggest break.)
  16. PatPfund
    The Twins are not an "ace" away from a title. And an "ace" is no guarantee of success; just look at your list, and see how few titles are held by those pitchers. Burnes is a great pitcher, but he is controllable for 2 years, and then is gone. How about we play the year, and see where we are at mid-season before we throw away assets we may need to actually get good. Maybe we'll find out we already have an ace on staff.
  17. PatPfund
    Agree strongly with @mikelink45. RP may be his better stuff, and there have been some flashes, but I'm not convinced Sands is MLB-quality at all, or maybe he is on a lower level team than I'd like the Twins to be. If Sands has a great spring, I'd totally be working the trade circuit for him.
  18. PatPfund
    The question you have at the top is really THE question. And we don't know the answer yet, and really won't without gameplay; a 14 inning cherry-picked stretch is a nice but very slender reed of encouragement. I also saw him strike out the side one inning last year, then get pulled after walking the bases full the next, and that wildness won't play long in high-leverage settings. I'm hoping he figured something out (trust him more than Megill and Pagán, but that is a super-low bar), but I'm also not holding my breath, and wouldn't be surprised to see him riding the Green Line a few times this summer.
  19. PatPfund
    In theory, I love Winder as a starting pitcher. He looked far better in that role last year than Bundy or Archer, but then the shoulder flared up again, and then again in the off-season. He may have a future as a starter, but right now the Twins are pretty deep in SPs, and Winder should try limited innings to both get and keep himself healthy for a season. He also really needs to be of use soon or the Twins are going to be forced to trade-low/waive/lose Winder before or during the next Rule 5 draft. So for this year, I'd try to build him as an RP, because there are a few iffy pieces in the 'pen (yeah, I'm looking at you Megill, Pagán, and Moran). (Dobnak could be a dark horse to supplant somebody as well.)
  20. PatPfund
    I got a big laugh out of the theme song, especially after the mini-cliffhanger 'di- ah- (where is he going?!?!) rees' (phew!). If Martin can field like that at 2nd on a regular basis, I'm very intrigued. I'm not coincidentally concerned about one of my favorite Twins, Polanco. After Buxton last year, I believe pretty much nothing the Twins say about injuries (Byron was clearly hurt all year, and the coverup did nothing but buy him crap from fans, and ended with him having surgery. On the knee that was hurt all year.) Given my decades of experience with balky body parts, if Polanco is still limited by his knee after almost enough time off to recover from ACL surgery, it reeks of an ongoing issue for the coming season. And despite his totally undeserved reputation for not getting hurt, Jorge has repeatedly been hurt (he just stayed off the IL), and the injuries have hobbled his output. We'll need a backup 2B, and Martin looks plausible. Miranda's shoulder is also concerning (especially if he is playing in the WBC), and having Farmer/Solano/Gordon to help might work after all. (Otherwise, it seems like we have one too many "Swiss Army Knives".
  21. PatPfund
    I try not to be a hater, but, yeah, I hate the new vague injury language. Larnach has a 'lower body injury' and that might indeed be concerning. A pulled hip flexor, a ruptured hamstring, a torn ACL, a fractured femur, a broken toe, a damaged Achilles, and a dislocated ankle could all be called 'lower body injuries'. So could a hangnail, bunyons, regular sore muscles, or a leg bruise. On the words/video front, I prefer words by far. But getting a few videos that give a little extra taste of Spring Training to my wintry eyes and ears is a nice addition.
  22. PatPfund
    I freakin' love the pitch clock, and really like that it has ended a game already. Don't want to see much of that in the regular season, so work it all out in Spring Training. But either way, it needs to be called for real now, and in the regular season, because the worst case scenario is umpires making up when they'll enforce the rules and when they will not. (I'm also going to laugh hard every time I hear a player getting pissy about the new rules. Absolute total payback for the frustration they've inflicted on all of the fans of the game in the past decade.) Other thoughts... A. It was really fun to watch baseball again, and Miranda looked great. B. Ryan looked fine (and also as if he was working on stuff, which is as it should be). C. Headrick was kinda dominant, and against a lot of starters; keep hearing about the pitching pipeline, and it's a good sign one of our AA pitchers looks this good this early. D. It was fun to see Julien and Lee in Twins' uniforms.
  23. PatPfund
    Hopefully this is just signing a professional arm to eat ST innings until either (most likely) the SPs have boosted their pitch counts, and/or (less likely) lightening strikes on the control front and the Twins uncover a hidden gem. Also hopefully they aren't counting on the latter. If mediocre early ST castoffs can walk on to our 26-man roster, our bullpen is officially a mess. (Which it isn't. Megill was bad today, but he's always been that way despite the velocity. Never really considered him or Moran to be the bullpen locks others have talked up, but I also think there are enough arms to push them off the roster if they can't find the plate.)
  24. PatPfund
    Baseball is hard. A couple overall #1s never made it to MLB. Prospects stall, and get hurt. We've definitely had our share, but in case this fuels some to think we should trade all prospects for 'sure thing' veterans, remember Kirby. Or Montas. Or Mahle (though I have hopes for this year). Given our budget realities (this just in: big market teams rake huge media coin, while the Twins TV broadcaster is due to declare bankruptcy), we need the core of our team to be younger, salary controllable players, and the best way to get those is to draft them (or be awful, and stock up at the trading deadline). So I'm focusing on the end-article optimism.
  25. PatPfund
    I'd say "no" to Lee/Raya for Burnes. Not because Burnes isn't good enough, but because the Twins haven't shown they are good enough yet, and Burnes won't likely fuel "a run" because he'll probably bolt via Free Agency. It's spring, and people are gaga with hope, but this team finished 14 games back in a weak division last year, two presumed starters (Kepler and Gallo) are coming off horrible years, the hoped-for middle order bats at the corners (Miranda and Kirilloff) have maybe a combined season of experience, and several SPs have both injury-recovery questions, and are on expiring contracts. As you say, mid-season is a better assessment time, but getting Burnes there would probably mean outbidding every playoff contender in baseball. I'd rather keep building this year, maybe win the division and a playoff game, and come back even better next year (very possibly with Lee in the lineup).
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