PatPfund

Agreed, but that isn't the same as 'you have to go all-in every time you have a pair of jacks.' Look, I"m enjoying this year as a great rebound from last year's terrible Twins. But I'm also not blind. This is a solidly middle AL team. There isn't one Twins starting pitcher I'd put in the AL top 20. The 'pen is dreadful. The hitting is statistically great, but they also get shutout more than pretty much everyone. Fielding zooms from the sublime to the stupefying. We're lucky if the catchers throw out two base-stealers in a month. Our base-running is often a travesty. (My favorite part of the Twins' 8-5 triple play recently was that for once, we weren't the team running around like deranged Little Leaguers.) We are not a player away from winning it all, but we do show signs of being good with a better future (assuming we don't throw it all away, like... you know, the Cubs). This team, with full years from Maeda, Winder, Miranda, Larnach, and Kirilloff; and majority years from Paddach and Lewis should be much better even with Correa gone. I'm looking forward to seeing that team just as much as I am watching the rest of this year play out. Additions or no. Plus, if you are taking "shots" because you are afraid someone will think you are 'operating from a position of fear', then that is exactly what you ARE doing.

Eek. Where the Cubs want to be is both instructional, and a warning for the local nine. Robertson should be a target of interest, but this club also could have signed him last offseason, and if they send a good prospect, they'll essentially be giving up a good prospect, and likely a pitching prospect for 20-ish innings. So maybe this offseason, consider signing a Robertson or two at moderate pay to establish a floor under a recently terrible 'pen. (And if the Twins are terrible, you can flip them.) Stroman should be the Rip Van Winkle of sleeper prospects. Awful contract, and a damaged arm (that honestly was good, but not great when healthy). Stroman was part of the Cubs going 'all in', and they are now bust. A purely cautionary tale for the fanbase (and hopefully the Twins) about committing all of your assets for years, because you won a few games in a row. Best bet for the Twins is to look to teams with a deeper pitching inventory so they are trading position players (and prospects) for a very few arms. (Or heaven forbid, admit our team is improving, but not quite to championship level, and stand pat.) Yes, it is tougher, but as the Cruz trade showed last year, positions-for-arms can be done; if we get hooked on sending out our pitching future for 'all in' desperation plays, we won't be long in returning to where the Cubs now dwell.

At least it's ballpark (if Castillo is healthy). Though I'd look for a prospect position player to move instead of Winder, because the "pitching pipeline" has an air bubble in it (with very dubious Saints starting prospects not name Winder), and your Gray/Castillo 1 and 2 could be gone after next year.

From Baseball-Reference: Mahle, 2022: 1.8 WAR, 3W, 7L, 4.48 ERA, 92.1 IP, 102 K, 1.300 WHIP Ober, 2022: 0.1 WAR, 1W, 2L, 4.01 ERA, 33.2 IP, 29 K, 1.277 WHIP Winder, 2022: 0.5 WAR, 4W, 3L, 3.77 ERA, 45.1 IP, 29 K, 1.235 WHIP I'm not trying to say Mahle overall might not be a better pitcher than the two already in the Twins' system, but this year, Ks aside, I'd rather have Winder starting than Mahle. Ober also is in the same ballpark as Mahle. Mahle definitely helps because adding him would move one of the others to a weak bullpen, but Mahle is a #3, and unless he both is totally healthy, and thrives on the venue change (which could NOT happen as easily as it could), adding him doesn't likely move the needle much on winning a playoff series. Certainly not to be shipping top prospects for. (Sometimes the trades you don't make...) I'd love to see a big move involving top prospects for a #1-#2 starter (like Castillo or Montas if healthy), but otherwise, I'd like to keep our prospects for either development or offseason moves made with cooler heads at real prices. And just enjoy the recovery season by the Twins for what it is; a step in the right direction from being a bad division bottom feeder. Trade some AAAA players or a hot Sano for some middle bullpen help, but no reliever I've seen on the market is worth a top prospect, and without a #1-#2 SP, relievers are unlikely to make a difference in the playoffs.

If you want to trade Sano, he has to play in the majors. And as much as it pains me to say it, there is no obstacle to calling him up, because the offense is flagging. If there are no injuries in the meantime, it would be pretty easy to option out Celestino (whose batting average has shed about 70 points from its height, and who hits for zero power, pitiful RBI, and as we saw last week, can't even lay down a bunt). Gilberto should probably be playing every day in St Paul. With Jeffers out and Sanchez catching most games you have DH spots available, and can shift others around to various spots since they play various spots. I'd rather not see him, but it is also foolish to assume there is no trade value, especially if he comes up and whomps a few. No, you won't get Montas or Castillo, but some contending team with more stable pitching could throw a mid-grade reliever out there for a chance at a power boost. Don't forget the Twins got Ryan and Strotman for a power bat rental last year, and the Braves won the Series behind a batch of reclamation/cheap-pickups like Rosario and Soler. But the value is and will remain near zero as long as Sano is in the minors, so putting off a call up just increases the chances we are stuck with him for the rest of the year.

Curious to hear about those starters that keep us in the game through 5, because we've been down and into the 'pen by the 4th A LOT lately. (The least talented of the bunch is Bundy, and he is the one pitching with the most guts lately.) This team needs a top starter to compete in the playoffs, we don't need anything to compete for a division title and early exit. Winder is currently your third best starter on the MLB team (even if he IS in the minors), and if you trade him for another #3 along with some top prospects, that is a staight lose-lose. And FYI, don't sweat the 40-man until post-season. I just looked at it, and between players who are leaving (like Correa) and players whose contracts will be up, and players not good enough to sweat getting taken, and players you wish would get taken, I count 18 players on the 40-man the Twins could skip protecting right now. That should clear plenty of space for those who will need protection come December.

I'd understand this problem more if the Twins were loaded at starting pitcher. But they are not. Right now, Josh Winder is the third best starter on this team, and if Ryan doesn't snap out of it pretty soon, then Winder will be the second best starter on this team. A team with marginal starting pitching shouldn't be debating moving a guy with the starting stats quoted in the OP to the freakin' pen or AAA. He should be in the rotation until the numbers regress, or you start skipping spots to limit his innings. As for the Bundy/Archer/Ober/Smeltzer problems this creates? Tough. It's baseball, and you tell them all if they want to be in the rotation, then pitch better than Winder. (Love the Archer potential, but his surgically repaired hip isn't holding up even with restricted use? That's bad. Give him some rope and time, but if he can't stay healthy, and won't accept a 'pen role, then you let him go. Same with Bundy, though he intrigues me more as a bullpen arm; love his character even if he's looking threadbare in the rotation. And, yeah, I totally could see him starting a playoff game. Say against Tampa who has already been wiped out by Winder. Though I'd rather see him start Game 4 after Castillo/Montas/OtherReallyGoodPitcher, Gray, and Ryan.

The OP looks spot on. Duffey has looked much better these last few weeks. I remember him saying they were working on a new mix, and I internally scoffed, but it's working to get him serviceable again, and in this 'pen, that's gold. Now, can it hold!?

I'll take Chapman as the exception that proves the rule. The Cubs had one of the best teams in baseball with a World Series winning manager already in place, but were missing that one piece. The Yankees were willing since they weren't winning it that year, and they had the relationship to get Chapman right back in free agency. Chapman was the most dominating arm in the game. So if you want to name the most dominating reliever in baseball, and you think we are only one piece away from winning it all (which I know isn't true from your posts including the one quoted), and you believe we have a post-season wizard managing the Twins (which I also suspect might not be true), then, yeah. Send a top prospect to make your championship team even better. But I have seen nobody name an arm dominating the game the way Chapman did, I think our manager is okay, but not great, I would say we are a decent team, but not a great one, and I don't think our rotation is anything more than solid; certainly not good enough to average 5 innings per start against a mediocre Texas team, let alone playoff competition. So sending top prospects for a reliever is goofy IMO. At all times, but especially for this team.

Wilson Ramos was a two-time All Star, and Silver Slugger winner at a position the Twins were about to be in dire need of filling. And then you make my point precisely. Capps (who was a waiver claim months before, and would be out of baseball not too long afterward) was acquired for the playoffs instead of the starter the Twins needed (Ramos originally was the key piece in a Cole Hamels trade). Without the needed starter, the Twins never had a lead in the playoffs for Capps to protect, and he was useless. In the playoffs. (Through no fault of his own.) This team needs a very good starter first. Only then will the 'pen matter.

The Twins bullpen is ragged, but... Prices are inflated by desperation in mid-season.... The team has shown they can already win the division even if they make no moves.... A reliever or two as the only midseason adds might pad a division lead, but is not good enough to win a playoff series from the Yankees, Astros, Red Sox, Blue Jays, or Tampa (our most likely opponents).... ....so the only thing worth trading a top prospect for is a #1 or #2 level pitcher. Castillo, a healthy Montas, and likely several more who might become available as teams fade in the next couple weeks. Only that will make a major difference in the postseason, and only success in the postseason this year is worth paying the inflated prices at the trade deadline. Then sure, add relievers, but don't send out top prospects for somebody not even good enough to start. Take the three named here. Maybe the best one (Santana) was available for a DFA claim one year ago. The second (Rainey) is 29 with a career ERA of 5.5+. The third has control issues (great name, Diaz, but a Moran by any other name...). Why would we want multiple years of that? Relievers are notoriously up and down in their careers. (Like Minaya; almost free to us last year, he helped save the bullpen last season, and this year.... he's mediocre to bad.) Get a top starter instead, or trade a couple fungible assets (like Strotman) for a couple fungible arms, and enjoy the solid comeback season with hopes they can be even better next year.

The Capps trade is the real danger, because as the OP pointed out, Matt Capps was good for the rest of the season. But I don't think he even appeared in the playoffs (tough to put the closer in when you are down several runs), and then he was bad. The problem was they gave up their top prospect for a reliever. (Someone mentioned Mauer was locked in at catcher, and that was true. Until the very next year.) NO RELIEVER is worth a top prospect, unless they will put you in the World Series that same year. Because NO RELIEVER can be counted on for the long term to make the loss of the prospect worthwhile. This team's lead need is starting pitching, and not another middle arm. They need a #1 - #2 or they are not going to make it out of the first round of any playoff series regardless of what they do with the 'pen. Get a #1 (which WILL take top prospects), and then it would be worth sending lower prospects or position players for relief help. If you can't get a #1, make a fringe move to keep people happy, and do your real trading for the future in the off-season when you are not paying panic prices.

This is a good article, in that it sparked a lot of reaction, but it is also a bit goofy in trying to compare a dynasty team (where sure you will have a stable group of players probably keeping the team at the top most years) to a team that won 2 World Series, but 4 years apart (and with very different rosters). And worse, to a team holding the all-time professional sports record for consecutive playoff losses. We probably want to hold off on naming championship core players until we at least win a playoff series, then win one again the next year.

Good article. Everyone is locked in on the bullpen now because of recent meltdowns, but a #1-2 starter is the only thing that will make a serious difference in our playoff chances. Spending prospects to have a better bullpen to beat out Cleveland to win a crummy division is goofy. Without an elite rotation leader, but with a better bullpen, this team might break the playoff streak (might), but will be a serious underdog against likely playoff matchups. Of the players you name, only Lopez and Castillo would tempt me right now into a serious offer (probably a few drawn from a pool of Larnach, Martin, Steer, Balazovic, SWR, Canterino, etc). Montas is hurt, and until he definitively shows he is not, Oakland would be lucky to get half of what they could have had two weeks ago. Mahle and Kelly are nice (well, maybe they could be), but they aren't even as good as Winder right now (who shouldn't be on the edge of anything; he is the team's 3rd best starting pitcher). If you can't get an elite SP, spend one or two of your fungible AAAA starters like Strotman/Sands for an extra bullpen arm, win the Central, and save the prospects for the offseason or next year. (Seriously, don't repeat the stupidity of sending an everyday elite prospect, like, say, Wilson Ramos, for a supposed back-end bullpen savior, like, say Matt Capps, only to have the Twins swept out of the playoffs so badly they don't even get to use their 'savior'. Who FYI could be out of baseball in two years because that's life as a relief pitcher.)

I think he's part of the solution. I suspect he is someone whose overuse shows more in pitches getting hittable than in injury. More depth in the bullpen (internally or through trade) would help.

Here is the problem with 'data' driven discussions. You line up a series of stats and percentages in neat columns, and add some color coding along with a 'clear rule of thumb'. And it MEANS NOTHING out of context. By these columns, you would think Thielbar is one of the key members, maybe THE key member of the bullpen, which, frankly, is all you need to condemn this analysis. In the real world these comparative percentages are not comparable at all since Duran is routinely faced with the opposition's best hitters, while Thielbar faces curated matchups, and often fails at them (like facing the bottom of the order last week, and filling the bases with not outs, or filling them and giving up a grand slam). His ERA has been over 5 since April, opponents have an on-base percentage of .323 against him, he strikes out about 10% of those he faces, and his WAR says he is a half game WORSE than a AAA replacement. Duran (again, against elite opponents) has an ERA of 2.00, opponents bat .195 against him with an OBA of .243,, Jhoan strikes out 34% of those he faces, and his WAR is 1.5. For those who have followed the Twins this year, which set of comparative stats paints a more accurate picture as you see it? The OP is not wrong in needing to assess in-house options, but hopefully a more rigorous assessment is running in the Twins' organization. (Caleb should be closer to getting bounced than to consistent high leverage situations.)

A lot of the OP is right on, but some I couldn't disagree with more. The Twins starting rotation is a MAJOR factor in our bullpen issues. Every one of them has missed games pitched on the IL except Archer. Archer has a built-in limitation of 5 innings/70-80 pitches, which I agree with given his potential, but which also guarantees the 'pen is covering half of his games. Dylan Bundy is pretty much pitching on guts more than talent, and any time we face a good team, the bullpen probably has to cover about half of his games as well (more in a blowout). One of Bundy/Archer can be carried; not two. One of them needs to get a shot at relieving (Archer's potential as a late-season difference maker means I'd pick Bundy). Remove one, and add Winder now; he is easily their 3rd or 4th (if you want to argue Smeltzer) best starter, has had dominant performances against top AL teams, and like Gray, Ryan, and Smeltzer is fully capable of throwing 7 innings a start. That just leaves Archer's starts with built-in long relief roles, and Ober is probably the best one to piggy-back on those. Your other six pitchers are then primarily covering 2-3 innings a game instead of 3-5, so there is less overuse. Finally, sure tinker with some starters if you feel the need, but Schulfer and Sisk are already relievers, and already blowing people away in St Paul. Give them auditions NOW, so you don't end up trading draft capital for an issue where there is an in-house solution (and if they don't work out NOW, you still have time to work the trade market. And seriously make some decisions; Caleb Thielbar hasn't had an ERA under 5 since early in the season, and it isn't 'one or two bad outings. (My partner complaint is usually "DFA Duffey", but he might actually have figured something out; think he's working on 6-7 straight scoreless outings, and has peeled two runs off his ERA. Use him for real to find out if there is a real change.)

Best case scenario is he gets hot on rehab, and the Twins can garner some interest from a middle contending team looking for this year's Jorge Soler. Probably best return they could expect is a middle-rank relief rental (which we could desperately use), or a low-grade prospect. Helps the team by easing a roster crisis, helps Sano by giving him the change of scenery he probably needs at this point. Most likely scenario is a mixed rehab, no market interest, and the Twins carrying him for at least a while to see if he catches fire. But we shouldn't hold our breath. Sure (as the OP says) his career OPS+ of 117 makes him an above average hitter in MLB, but it represents an average to poor OPS+ for a bat-premium position like 1B. (Ex: Matt Olson just dropped out of Bleacher Reports' Top Ten 1B, in part because of his lowly 128 OPS+.) To make it worse, Sano's 117 is mostly a product of his early career. He has only matched his career OPS+ in one of the last 5 seasons (including this one; the outlier was 2019's juiced baseball season). It's likely he peaked years ago. It's also likely we'll have to put up with at least a few weeks of him taking at-bats from better players. (Though if he keeps Jeffers from ever DHing again this season, I guess that's something.)

As pointed out, the Twins will need to make some calls soon on both the rotation and the 'pen. Josh Winder who is arguably the third best starter got sent down. Now there seems to be an Ober/Smeltzer showdown coming (and if Winder isn't the third best starter, then Smeltzer is). I love Bundy's guts, and Archer's potential, but you can't keep two 4-5 inning guys in the rotation when you have guys (Smeltzer and Winder) who can throw 6-7 better innings sitting around on the pine or in St Paul. Give Bundy a shot at being the old starter/dominant RP, and put Winder in the rotation. And for heaven's sake, keep Smeltzer in the rotation until he pitches out of it, and make some calls on the mass of so-so arms cluttering the bullpen; there are plenty of fungible arms out there. Trials for Sisk and Schulfer wouldn't hurt (can they be worse than we've seen the last week) and we shouldn't be demoting good pitchers to keep bad ones. Ober might be a great guy to bring in mid-game, and it could speed his return to the team. (Nice piggy-back with Archer?)

Off season talks might make sense, but mid-season 'offers you can't refuse' are by definition inflated pricing, and are made for one reason only; to win in this season's playoffs. So UCL-strain pitchers need not apply. Winder looks to me like the real deal, if he and Ober can get/stay healthy, I'm much less interested in selling the farm for anything other than a #1-#2 starter. (Adding Winder and Ober to this staff in whatever role and/or adding another top starter and/or Maeda coming back will make the 'pen stronger.)

Loved whiffle ball (have you seen the 'pro' version? check out YouTube)! But I don't see the rest of what you are seeing at all. Yep, bunting is down (and shouldn't be in the face of shifting, including bunting with 2 strikes and half an empty field). But the Twins are notorious for working counts. They have the premiere contact hitter in baseball in Arraez. They have one of the most frustrating hitters to face in Polanco (fouling off pitch after pitch). They had Jeffers bunt just the other day. They can hit the ball out of the yard. They have people like Kirilloff or even Larnach who drive the ball all over the park with pop. (or classically the other day, there was a guy on 3B with one out and Alex came up, and I told a friend 'I hereby guarantee a fly ball to drive in the run' and Kirilloff delivered. They still have others who swing from their heels on all counts (your 'risk' factor). They also have spectacular (if uneven) players in the field, and some pitchers who move the game along instead of re-setting their zen aura between every pitch. They have two past Platinum Glove winners (when healthy, the best CF and SS in baseball). Things may be frustrating at times (uncertainty is the essence of sport), but this is possibly the most interesting/fun Twins team I've seen in the past decade. And I'm loving the ride!

My current list goes 1. Duran (then a pretty big gap, then...) 2. Jax 3. Pagan 4. and 5. TBDs The only top 5 list I'd put Thielbar (or Duffey) on right now is the DFA/Option list for who goes if better options come along. Caleb has had some moments, and you can't cherry-pick out innings where he gives up a grand slam after loading the bases, because it is not 'one bad pitch' but several bad pitches. Opponents have a .339 (!) on-base percentage against Thielbar, and his ERA is just under 6 (and not by accident). His ERA+ is 65, and his WAR is -.6 (and going down). The other day was one of his 'good' (as in no runs allowed) outings where he came in, filled the bases with terrible control, and escaped by the skin of his teeth (and a 3 pitch strikeout of Cron by Pagán). (Yes, Pagán has had control issues as well, but his are getting better, whereas Caleb's are not.) I'd love to see Emilio pushed down to 5 here, and there are potential short-term in-house candidates to bolster the 'pen (especially if we can get Winder/Ober back healthy and/or Moran can figure out the control thing and/or Schulfer/Sisk can transition to the majors, and/or Thornburg keeps it up in tighter games), but in-house or trade, it would be great to add at least two solid names (or more) to this list.

Look, I like Joe Ryan, but all of your stats for him were pretty much matching him against rookies, and that isn't what the All-Star game is about. Matched against all pitchers, Ryan has no real case he is an All-Star. Duran has a case, and he has the growing rep as somebody who can wipe out an inning, and All Star managers have looked at that, and non-save RPs more recently. But it will be tough, given numbers, a player having to be picked from each team, a couple Twin rivals in Arraez and Correa, etc. Possible, but I wouldn't count on it.

The OP is dead on as far as I'm concerned. The catchers should split time, and rarely DH (Sanchez has been a nice surprise on the O side, but only in a catcher context). Miranda has been one of the Twins' best bats this month, and he started only one game of the Cleveland series. Playing Kiriloff a lot at 1B makes sense; he already looks like the best defender there, but... ...they should also be giving him some games in the outfield; Alex played his first ever MLB game in RF in the playoffs, and looked calmly good there. Larnach's regression at the plate this month at least opens a window for a game or two a week in LF. I love Gio's great plays. Love them. But I also get the knock on him, and frankly if Franmil Reyes hadn't let up running home yesterday it would be tougher to claim Gio as a lockdown 3B today (Gio totally boots a short grounder that could have been an inning ending double play, leaving him just a throw to home that might have been late if Reyes hustles all the way). You certainly can't hurt Urshela by giving him an extra day or two off and playing Miranda at third. If the debate here is whether or not Miranda is a top prospect, I'll take any number of "top prospect" lists that listed Miranda in the top few pre-season, or the fact that he is the reigning Twins Minor League Player of the Year, or the fact that he's hit over .300 with pop since his recall (while playing mostly out of position), or even the fact that a team like the A's would probably demand him in a Montas trade package over some random blog comments to the contrary. (Also, the Twins aren't exactly enhancing any trade value by sitting him a lot, though he did come within a few feet of walking off the Guardians the other day as a pinch-hitter.)

Ha! Not only did I think we would lose, I assumed we had for three hours. (Went into work enforced info blackout right after Thielbar gave up the double in the 9th. Speculating fairly seriously that he MUST have pictures of Rocco doing something bad, because he was brought in to face, yeah, a lefty, but a lefty who hits .320 against lefties. Gotta assume he either has totally lost faith in Duffey and Thornburg (who hasn't pitched all week), or he is saving them for the Rockies game tomorrow. (Remember back to Monday when our bullpen was all rested?)