PatPfund

Giant yawn. The only way either pitcher pitches serious innings for the Twins in 2023 is if the pitching staff is riddled by injury, or the last place team features them post-mid-season fire sale. Or both. Is it wrong that I'm feeling misty for last year's lock-out? When at least there was an excuse for doing nothing, because nobody could do anything?

The Rodon miss is a bummer. Yep, injury risk, but two healthy dominant years, and a key missing piece on this team in a position where there isn't an obvious answer coming up (decent pitchers maybe; ace, not in the next 1-2 years. Would have liked Contreras, but CV is a solid answer to a big hole. Both on base talent, and championship experience. Swanson was the best of the SS deals, but that is a low bar. (I'm guessing all of the Big 4 "winners" are going to deeply regret the second halves of their deals. If Swanson can keep hitting in the 120 OPS+ range (no lock), his D might hold up to make less than half of the deal a bad one. (And a smaller bad for less years.) Still, the Twins' top prospects play middle infield, and they shouldn't be blowing a decade of money for a one year solution on a position that doesn't age well, and where they have talent coming up. Way too many other needs where we don't have prospects. The other starters are o.k., but how many #2-3 types and reclamations do we need on the 40-man? I would have been looking harder at good outfielders who can hit (and we missed on some of those too).

The part of the OP that is dead on? Max has more value to the Twins than to others. A. (as pointed out) the vaunted OF depth doesn't exist. In both of the past two seasons we've been running a cast of players not-ready-for-prime-time to the OF for extended starts. One of them (Celestino) is often considered a fixture of some sort now, despite being a weak-bat/weak-mind player. B. Everyone else knows of Max's struggles. I'd trade him today if there was going to be something substantial coming back, but if it is just to move him (or dump salary with the tens of millions we have free to spend right now), then... no. And again, everyone knows Max, so something substantial isn't coming back.

Trading these three would be stupid. Our biggest needs are an ace, middle infield, a catcher, pitching depth, and restocking a 'depleted' farm system. So further depleting that system by shipping out potential (low cost) stars at some of needed spots makes no sense. This year we have a rare chance to spend money on Free Agents within our budget. And since that budget will NEVER be one of the top 5 in MLB, it makes sense to spend that money on areas we have no near-term solutions in our system. Ace and catcher for instance. Maybe an extra big bat or two. That will work if we supplement young "value" players coming up, but it won't work if we trade them to get similars available right now for "just" money. Which isn't to say it won't happen. This Front Office likes to wait around to get "Value" table scraps that often turn out to be something you wouldn't give your dog. Then they ship out our future for middling/disappointing short-term returns. And sadly try to wildly overspend for a decade on the very position two of our top prospects play. If only there was a recent example of a team that won it all letting their about-to-be-expensive SS walk in favor of a talented-and-cheap rookie (saving their money to spend in areas of higher impact). Oh, wait...

Option A, please, and don't waste money on a Big 4 (let others damage themselves with that mistake). Spend the money on getting an ace (like Rodon), a starting catcher (like Contreras or Vasquez), and a legitimate starting outfielder (I don't care about LH or RH; I want an MLB hitter/defender to lock down a spot among the injured/inexperienced/stupid (yep, Gilberto, that's you). Maybe even get get Abreu to be our new Cruz. Maybe add cheap SS depth. Options abound if we don't waste money over-paying a shortstop for the better part of a decade for past work. There is no evidence an "elite" shortstop is needed to win a title, and a boatload of evidence that most shortstops peak before they get to free agency. Plus we had Correa last year; it was worth a try, and pretty exciting, but I'm not real interested in a redo (and he's the best and youngest of the Big 4 bunch).

I'm tipping my cap for the year, and bidding him farewell. Spending big money on shortstop is goofy; you get bigger bang for the buck elsewhere. I'm glad the Twins tried it (the lockout limited the options and Correa was a noble effort), but signing him limits most other moves, and we have many needs. Because Correa was on the team this year, and is anyone out there happy with the results? Committing serious resources for almost a decade to a player who has at most three years of elite SS play left is extra goofy. It not only hurts us in the short run, but will be a millstone around the neck that gets worse every year. It is the sort of thing that forced Boston into shipping out one of the game's gems, Mookie Betts; they couldn't even keep their best internally developed player, because of albatross contracts. And FYI, if Carlos wanted to play here, he had a deal for $70+ million signed with the Twins that he voided. After his replacement in Houston won MVP, my guess is he wants to sign in LA or NY or some organization that will be a Series favorite, and that won't be the Twins (especially if they sign Carlos, and fill out their roster with rookies and waiver claim projects). He wants a long Twins contract about as much as I want him to sign one.

Great for Kirk, but the fact is that it is radical/rarely done surgery. Alex may come back strong, but he also may never come back. Having to pencil a giant question mark like Kirilloff, an oft-injured Larnach, and a recent AA grad in Wallner in as a third of your starting lineup, while leaving serial screw-up and light-hitting Celestino as a key reserve is precisely why... spending $35-40 million at shortstop is a BAD IDEA. Not just for the Twins, but for any team not in one of the country's largest markets. (Texas sure was awesome last year, right?) Spend 1/3-1/4 of that short term on a good stopgap SS, get a starting level OF and C, and re-sign Urshela with the balance. That leaves space for the prospects to develop into starters instead of betting the farm (and season) on them being both healthy and good. Because if they are Plan A, there is no Plan B.

SS is not our area of most need. You can win with a decent shortstop, and we DID NOT win with Correa in 2022. Neither did any of the LCS teams this year. If you don't spend that money on shortstop (instead, spend a much smaller amount on a decent stopgap, because Lewis and Lee are coming at some point in 2023), you can address some of the other wild shortcomings of your roster. Narvaez (or Vasquez, I'm not a platoon fetishist) would be nice at catcher. Rodon should be a top priority. But so should another OF of starting quality (like a Benintendi; hit .300 and flashed Gold Glove level D). Any roster with Celestino on it (light-hitting airhead) is weak; dude needs serious AAA time. Also, any lineup that counts on Alex Kirilloff (who is recovering from experimental surgery that cut out bone to make his forearm shorter) is fantasy; he may be great, or he may never play in MLB again. The Twins should keep Urshela, and plan on Miranda mostly at first, unless they do go out and sign Mancini (in which you let Gio go, and play Mancini at 1B and Jose at 3B). Signing Mancini is more plausible without the money going to Correa.

The OP (and the series) is doing good work in assessing trade values, because if you ARE going to do trades for real talent, you can't send back people you might be dumping from the 40 man in a couple weeks (other teams are at least as informed as Twins Daily readers). That being said, I agree with the many who say don't trade him now. His trade value is not great, and he as a pretty clear path to the majors in the outfield, and potentially at 2b. Someone mentioned Kepler, Kirilloff, Wallner, and Celestino earlier; Max is glove-only (aka a reserve) at this point, Kirilloff had pieces of bone cut out of his arm to shorten it (aka, he may NEVER play an MLB game again), Wallner has promise (but few at-bats above AA), and Celestino... (maybe the lowest baseball IQ I've seen in a Twins uni in decades). The Twins outfield has been a mess the past two years, and the team can only dream right now of somebody being good enough to block Martin's path.

I normally like your stuff, Jamie, but strongly disagree here. In order… You can disagree about rating, but adding a catcher is a VERY pressing need. Jeffers is the only one on the 40-man, and the MILB options don’t scream “Ready!” yet. My personal order would be #1 Starting Pitcher, OF (D and bat), Catcher (maybe bumping up to #2 if he can really hit). Bullpen depth is addressed by adding a #1 SP (pushing a starter into the ‘pen and a marginal arm to the minors). We absolutely do not need a long term solution at SS; we have Lewis back mid-season, and Lee possibly forcing his way to the majors around the same time. Signing a long term contract to the position our top two prospects play is a waste of money. Jeffers absolutely has NOT shown he can be a primary catcher. He’s been injured, people bring up his ability to throw out base-stealers, because he has been dreadful at it, and only if you cherry-pick a few 10 game stretches can you say his bat even belongs in the majors (his career batting average is .210, his 2022 was .208). He has promise, but since his 26 game debut in 2020, Ryan has really struggled to hit even .200. He should be a solid roster likelihood, but not THE answer at catcher. The third point misses the point that catching is now a time-share position. We NEED a catcher even with Jeffers, and the team gets much better if that catcher (Contreras? Vasquez?) can take the pressure off of Jeffers, pick up (legitimate) DH at-bats, and help in Ryan’s development. Get a real player, and let their play decide who is “primary”.

Bassit, but only if they fail on Rodon.

What @tarheeltwinsfan said. It is actually cheaper to be top bidder for Rodón now, than give away another package of our top prospects (further bankrupting our farm system and future) for a pitcher who will walk in a couple years unless he gets Rodón money anyway. And last year's team was NOT a pitcher away from winning it all; they need the SP, a few additions, and Lewis, Lee, and most the others in the packages being part of our core by 2024.

I guess we mostly disagree about his potential for next year. Sale was absolutely great (I follow the Red Sox secondarily to the Twins, and still get the e-Globe after living there a couple years), and at least one of his setbacks is a total fluke, but... in 2018 he had a couple bouts of shoulder issues that put him on the DL, in 2019 the Red Sox were super careful about workload all season, but still had to shut him down (I think shoulder again?) in mid August. In 2020 it was the UCL surgery. He's a tall (6' 6") dude who is REALLY skinny (180-ish), and the concerns about the stress he puts on his joints may not have been warranted in his 20s, but are potentially coming home to roost in his 30s. I wouldn't mind signing him to a one year Maeda-like 'make good' contract. And I'd base it more on healthy availability than innings pitched, because I think his true future is as closer where he could use that electric stuff in short outings that wouldn't blow joint gaskets. (After the way he slammed the door on the Dodgers in 2018, I can only imagine a combo of Sale and Duran to end games; it would be freakin' awesome!) But I'd still want the big contract to go to Rodón.

Ummm. Don't be shocked. There is no way 48 innings delivered across ELEVEN starts (aka 4 1/3 innings per start aka an unhealthy Chris Archer through a similar sample size) is elite. In his last season that was anything like full, Sale had an ERA over 4. There were indications he had some arm issues before Boston gave him the latest contract (the reason he pitched out of the 'pen in the '18 playoffs), and it blew up on them. Sale doesn't belong in the cream of anything until he proves it (probably on a Maeda-style contract); if the Twins go this route as their pitching move, it is just a slightly more upside version of Bundy/Archer/Happ/etc. They have the money free now, and Rodón should be the main target. It will probably take something like 4 (plus maybe an option), and high 20s to low 30s. Frankly the Falvines need to break form, and talk early big money to get Rodón's attention, then sign him so they can get to work on other issues. If they wait, or if they give a "fair" offer (like the one to Yu Darvish), they will be left on the outside again, and likely have to fall back on a far lesser option.

I was with Ted's original post until the throw-in line that you can afford both a frontline starter and Correa. Which is completely wrong. Sign Correa, and Rodón is gone. Sign Rodón and Correa is gone, because I agree with @jmlease1 that you are probably talking 5 years and pushing $30 milliion per year. And that is what I'd do, because we need a healthy Rodón more than we need Correa. (Reminder, we HAD Carlos this year and finished a distant 3rd in a weak division.) Nope (where I disagree with jm), we can't make up the rest with minimum contracts, because this team was not even close to being a player away; we need a starting catcher and another potent OF bat at least. And we both need to have our young players get healthy and develop into stars (possible), and still be able to sign them in 2-3 years (not possible if we tie up all of our money for 5 years on both the ace and SS).

He's a decent option especially since that gives you serious money to pursue other players as well. There are others (like IKF who may be non-tendered or available from the Yankees cheap because they are about to non-tender him, and we already know the Twins like him). The key is to not blow $35 million at shortstop, but get a solid MLB-player there, and spend most of the (fairly unprecedented) FA budget on Rodón, a starting catcher (like Vasquez or Contreras), and a starting OF (like Hanigar or Benintendi). That should make us far better than this year. Spending big on SS means we'll be pretty much like we were in 2022.

I totally agree with Ted that next year's Opening Day is probably not in the organization right now. Palacios was definitely the most MLB-ready, and he essentially played himself out of the competition in September (with at-bats of the quality that got pitchers replaced with the universal DH). We also demonstrably need far MORE than a shortstop since we had Correa this year, and were not good. Spending over $30 million on SS will both severely restrict adding in other areas of need (because the people who point out our roster is several players short of the current LCS teams are correct), and IT HAS LITTLE HISTORY OF WORKING. Because @Brett this year is NOT a fluke. No team in at least a decade has won the Series spending big dollars at SS. Your SS can be great or not (though they do need to be decent), but you need a complete roster around them, and NOBODY has managed that budget strategy successfully after committing big coin to SS. (And any team that pulls it off is almost certainly going to be one like the Yankees or Dodgers who have revenues that dwarf ours.) The Astros are the model here. Develop a great SS, play him through the arbitration years, then let him walk into free agency and move on so you can put money into proven areas of need (like elite starting pitching and higher power bats than any shortstop wields). The glove is most important here with a bat that doesn't hurt the order and a salary that doesn't limit the roster.

Well, clearly you read very little I wrote. I advocate spending $28-30 million a year on Rodón, and another roughly $20 million per year to get a STARTING catcher (Jeffers is a backup until he proves otherwise), and a starting OF, and you read that as "dont spend money at all?" Not sure how you got there, but you be you. It also seems you are making up the "If we aren't spending it on SS, we aren't spending it on anyone." There is no basis for that speculation (until last year the Twins had never spent anything like that ON shortstop), and without that tenet your argument kind of falls apart. FYI, the Twins HAD that SS this year, so essentially you are saying the Twins were a couple great BP arms and a quality backup catcher away this year, and while it might have helped in the division, and... well... I don't agree. If you could clone the 2022 Twins (especially the roster of the last two months when Correa was at his best), add two great bullpen arms to the originals, then delete Correa, and add Rodón, Christian Vasquez and Andrew Benintendi, I'd pick the Clones over the Originals in a 7 game series time after time. The Twins have a fairly rare abundance of unassigned FA/roster money this offseason. They have recent proof (aka the 2022 Twins and Rangers) a big money SS isn't "the" answer here. They may have noticed that NO recent Series winner (a decade plus and guaranteed already again for this year) had a big contract at SS. They also have been open to wildly unusual (for this franchise) wheeling and dealing including big contracts. So I think all bets are reasonably off on what they "will" do.

The deal should look even better next year. Especially if the Falvines dangle a 40-man bubble candidate like Enlow, and have IKF as their stopgap SS in '23. (Legit, if not spectacular, MLB glove and bat, and the ability to play all over including catcher if/when an in-house candidate proves ready to be the regular SS.)

Too expensive and too long term for SS (which really needs to be glove-first). And as several have pointed out, we need an ace before we need a SS, and we have other holes at C and OF that Bogaerts cannot fill (and will keep us from filling by soaking up most the FA money). Just a reminder that WE WERE NOT GOOD IN A BAD DIVISION this year WITH Correa. (And I guess I agree with @DocBauer's point; if you are going to this level, why not pay Correa for two more years since he is two years younger? Though I should add that I think both are a bad idea. Get Rodón while we have the coin free to do it.)

We clearly don't agree. The title is about the revolving door. The implication underpinning the point of the article is that the revolving door is why the Twins are not successful. You accept that, and therefore it makes sense to plunk down money to sign a long-term shortstop to fix it, and you also accept "the suggestion" of Correa. Which really isn't a suggestion, it is the WHOLE point of Ted's post (because in this and others he clearly shows that is what he wants). I openly reject the implication, and will openly state that I see no correlation between having the same starting shortstop and winning titles; Addison Russell only lasted a few years in MLB, and again, every team remaining in the fight this year is doing so with either a rookie at SS, or a backup, or both. I also believe, and it is based on the evidence I cited, that signing a big-buck shortstop will absolutely doom the Twins to failure. It didn't work for us this year (and I might add it didn't work for Texas who signed two long-term SSs), and the strategy hasn't won a title in MLB for over a decade. I wouldn't be surprised if that changes at some point in the near future (LAD? NYY if they sign Carlos?), but the exception is almost certainly going to be a big market/huge budget team that has star pitching and a great lineup already. Because I don't think the lack of big money shortstops winning titles is a fluke. I think this is a defense-first position where even the best tend to peak in their early MLB careers, that by the time they can command the big contracts you are paying for past performance, and that while a strong fielding shortstop can be key, devoting a large portion of your budget to the position is fatal for a mid-to-small market team. Such spending means you are probably shorting the positions where you need more offense than D, and it probably means you are shorting the pitching. I don't think the Twins can afford both Rodón and Correa, and I think signing Rodón will make the Twins a better team (because I saw them with Correa, and I also saw them win over 100 games in 2019 with revolving shortstops). Sign a cheap glove-first SS, sign Rodón, sign another bat or two (a catcher? and one who plays a good OF), and this team is far superior to any that fixes 'the revolving SS problem' by blowing the bulk of our FA money on a soon-to-fade star, and then fighting for pitching table scraps and reclamation bats to fill our just-as-important roster holes.

The whole premise here is wrong. (Well not the revolving door part.) You don't need an veteran superstar shortstop to win a title. You need a balanced roster and pitching. (And pitching.) The '87 and '91 Twins won the World Series with a solid SS in Gagne (again, solid but nobody's 'superstar'). In '65 they DID have a superstar at SS (Zoilo) and made the Series. The final four teams this year have shortstops that may turn into superstars, but they were on nobody's list of MLB's Top Ten SS last winter. Houston might be better this year than last after letting Correa go. The Braves won last year with a SS (Swanson) who LOST his arbitration bid to make 6.7 million. The 2020 Dodgers won with Cory Seager (clearly a star, and playoff MVP but not getting paid yet). The Nationals won in 2019 with Turner (not getting paid yet, but clearly a superstar). The 2018 Red Sox won with Xander Bogaerts (clearly a budding superstar but not getting paid yet). In 2017 the Astros won with a clear superstar (not getting paid yet) in Correa. In 2016 the Cubs won with Addison Russell who was good, but no superstar (never even 100 OPS+), and soon out of baseball. 2015 was the Royals and Escobar, 2014 and 2012 were the Giants and a young (not paid yet) Crawford. 2013 was the Red Sox with Iglesias and Bogaerts. So over the past 11 seasons NO team has signed a big bucks SS and won the Series with them (though many won with youngsters who later signed for big bucks. By teams that didn't then win the Series. That is unlikely to change for the Twins if they lock up Correa, because... The Twins JUST signed a big bucks SS (Correa), and finished a distant and fading third in a very weak division. History and common sense says to spend our FA budget on building a balanced roster (where we have clear holes at C and OF), and add an ace. Do that last first, because you WILL find a strong correlation between having an elite SP and World Series titles.

I'd also bet you were pretty confident last February that Correa wasn't signing with the Twins. And likely in June you were highly doubtful the Twins would go out and trade for a really good SP, a solid depth arm, and closer at the trading deadline. No shame in that, because I was 100% sure in both cases (and 100% wrong). But this front office, even in moves that haven't worked out (yet) is making far more aggressive moves than they (or any other group that I can remember) has made in the past. They clearly have the means (through excellent money management) to make this move (or others). They have the motivation (another lousy season, and ownership will almost have to roll heads). And I'm no longer 100% sure of anything, which is pretty refreshing. FYI... a) I am not a left/right fetishist (though Rocco clearly is); I'd rather see a legitimate left-handed hitter face a lefty than a AAA player like Kyle Garlick. Talent matters more than batting side. b) I'm also not locked in on who the bats are, but Andrew Benintendi hit .304 this year, stole 8 bags, had a 120 OPS+ while playing elite defense. His 2022 WAR of 3.2 would have placed him 4th on this year's Twins roster trailing only Correa, Arraez, and Buxton, and slightly ahead of Gio Urshela. He's played in the bright lights, his baseball IQ is light years beyond Celestino's, and Benintendi would be a serious upgrade over every Twins OF not named Buxton. (But again, that is just one option.)

I don't know all the answers to your questions. But if you don't sign a top SS and suck up $30-40 million a year for 8 years, and with other contracts like Sanchez and Sano off the books, you could sign Rodón to something like $28 million for multiple years, and still have around $22+ million per year to lure the needed bats. And unlike SP, you are not locked in on bats as much to one player; Vasquez would bring a league-average bat (which is distinctly above average for a catcher), solid D, and leadership at catcher. Benintendi would bring improved defense, health, and an MLB caliber bat to the lineup and OF. Those are only two options. Trades open others (like freeing up Kepler's salary, or trading for someone and having the available budget to lock them in) The main point being, that if you sign a top SS, I DO know the answers. They will all be "No". No Rodón, No Contreras, No Haniger. No better than 2022. (When, again, we were the worst team in baseball down the stretch with our big buck SS playing at the top of his game, and ALL LCS teams leaning on less expensive contracts at SS; even SD whose big money SS is suspended.)

??? Don't you ever read things that make you giggle? Or am I supposed to agree with everything posted on the site? Especially the comments? I can pretty much guarantee that if everybody posted the same thing here, and everybody agreed with all of the articles, and I agreed with everybody else here, I'd never visit the site again. I come to learn, sometimes be inspired by other Twins fans, sometimes (okay, a lot) share their pain, and sometimes share my opinion (which is based on decades of playing and watching the game, and yep, is just as flawed as many others here). Renewing as a caretaker for next season will be a super easy call!