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Everything posted by PatPfund
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What's Going On With Jorge Polanco?
PatPfund replied to Cody Pirkl's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Have to admit, (and this isn't usually the case with your articles), I'm seeing more of your personal bias than meat to Polanco's "problems". Yep, a slower than expected start, but most of the underlying stats show Jorge is striking the ball as well as last year. And hitting slightly better than the league, and leading the team in RBI, but you personally "don't care" about those two items, and refer to his line as "trash". I see Jorge finding his way in a radically different hitting environment; one that isn't announced, and literally has to be felt through inning by inning. Are multiple versions of balls in play? Are balls being 'humidored' unevenly? Who the hell knows? Like many, he is fighting through this while still producing as many (actually more) run scoring hits than any of his team-mates. I'm okay with that, happy to see him in the lineup, expect him to get better, and consider him one of the least of my concerns for the Twins. -
Such a fun game tonight! And your recap captured a lot of that; baseball is the goofiest and Greatest game!
- 29 replies
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- kyle garlick
- jose miranda
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Reviewing the José Berríos Trade
PatPfund replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Good recap, but really too early to tell. I always liked Jose, but it never really came together for extended periods, and I expect the Jays paid way, way too much on the contract. Twins got some promising pieces, and right now the balance looks good for MN. But then so did the Twins pitching depth a month ago, so time will tell.- 29 replies
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- jose berrios
- austin martin
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Excellent article showing a problem to work on, but... whoa. Drop a game to the Tigers, and people are jumping off cliffs. The feed above has judged the year in multiple posts as 'a failure' (this just in; we are in first place, 4.5 games ahead of the consensus pick to run away with the division). And, yep; being in first place at the start of June means the Twins are delivering on their promise to field a competitive team. Suggestions are there to release Pagan; dude has seven saves as part of a split closer situation, an ERA in the low 2s, and has regained a LOT more control (one walk in the last 7 games) without the entirely made up stat of trading walks for hits (his WHIP is 1.09 over the last seven games). He is NOT part of the bullpen's current issues. There is even some Berrios angst saying we didn't improve much adding Gray to replace Jose. Please. Gray is twice the pitcher Berrios has been over their careers (more than twice if you go by WAR), and three times the pitcher Berrios has been this year (-.5 WAR to Gray's .9). All of which doesn't cover up the issues on this team. To be competitive long term, they have to get healthy, because a more budget-ey roster needs its big players on the field to win over time. Correa, Buxton (who should be on the IL right now so he can GET healthy), Arraez, Gray, and Polanco are all tough to replace for more than a few games. And we definitely are missing Ryan and Winder; those are two non-smoke-and-mirror pitchers whose absence hurts both the rotation and the 'pen. While I do agree with Nick about the bullpen, the idea of trading everyday player prospects for a reliever (especially the mentioned middling RP from Milwaukee) is overboard. The bigger longer term issue here is starting pitching, and if we are shipping prospects, that's what I'd want them to go for. (Montas, sure, but if the As are still asking a price nobody in MLB has touched yet, there will be others.) Making the rotation stronger strengthens the 'pen in two ways; by reducing the innings load, and by pushing displaced starters into the 'pen.
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The guy is VERY exciting to watch. But I'd think the first move would be to move him up to St Paul, and keep him in his limited starting situation. Gives him a run against better hitters, keeps him as stretched as he can be this year, and frankly the Saints could use him as a starter (bummer starting down six runs like last night). If that goes well, it might be more appropriate to talk about a call up in an opener or relief role. If I had to guess, I'd expect long-term he is more reliever; there is nothing smooth about his delivery, and he has little history of staying healthy as a starter using it.
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3 Twins Trade Targets to Watch
PatPfund replied to Nash Walker's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I agree the 'pen is likely to need help; Duffey and Thielbar and Stashak have had nice recovery periods, but Tyler and Caleb have looked less than lockdown in most recent outings, and Stashak is pitching with reduced velocity that probably doesn't work against better teams. And we'd all eat fewer Tums if Pagan wasn't the main closer. But I'm guessing the Twins will find that help in their system rather than by trade. Moran, Canterino, Smeltzer, Cotton, and more all either bring shutdown ability or length, and don't cost anything more than a call up. A frontline starter would be great, and I like your target! I'd even pitch that to the Red Sox BEFORE Eovaldi straightens out to lower the cost (if he goes back to lights-out-98-mph-stuff, the cost even of a rental skyrockets at the deadline). Maybe we could pry him loose with a Strotman/Sands/Cotton package since they need help in the rotation and 'pen. I'd rate the batting need lower than pitching, but if you could wave a Sands/Cotton/Sano package at Boston for Martinez, I could live with that. For sure, I'm hoping trades not only add, but clear some of the plateauing prospects off the 40-man. The Twins finally made the needed Vallimont DFA, but they'll need more space this year, and into the offseason to use and protect real assets. -
Is Royce a better shortstop than Correa (or Polanco)? Nope; not offensively or defensively. (But is he the future there if Correa is out or gone? Yes. The hitting looks mature, the fielding looks unpolished.) Is Royce a better LF than Gordon or Celestino; maybe bat, yes (though remember Larnach and Rooker tore it up for short stints at the start, but experience in fielding, no. Is Royce better at third than Urshela? Maybe again with the bat, maybe, but not defensively (not anywhere near defensively) yet. Is Royce a better fit than Arraez at 1B? Right now Arraez hits better and has a longer history of doing so. Defensively Royce might start equal, and get better with practice. Note the common thread. Yep, he can hit, but he is either talented/rough defensively (small sample, but no smaller than the hitting, Royce's fielding percentage so far is worse than any Correa has posted in his career), or talented/totally-inexperienced. Now where on Earth could the Twins put Royce to polish his weaknesses or inexperience, and still field a lineup as strong without him as with him. Maybe the minors? It's not a life sentence, it is the place to develop players until they are fully ready. I'd say I don't see why people can't see that, but I get the other side. A lot. But I also want to win both now and in October, and I'm willing to let the front office play chess since they seem much sharper at it than they were last year. And this team is stronger both in October and next year with a polished Royce Lewis.
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Can Buxton be Worth $100M Playing 100 Games?
PatPfund replied to John Bonnes's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
One factor I don't see in the article or comments. This is a great strategy to have him healthy come playoff time. And the team's fortunes are MUCH shinier if he is playing in the postseason. Resting him regularly to let the body recover from his intense outputs makes sense, especially if you have him with a championship on the line. -
Huh. The poor helpless-without-Royce Twins hung 14 on the board today. And won (which seems to be what terrifies a lot of people here). Won games before he came up, will win games (and lose some) with him getting better in AAA. Can call up a more polished/better player when need strikes again, or late in the season for a home stretch push. I can live with that.
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Couldn’t disagree more. Royce had a great taste, but with Correa likely gone after this year, the team MUST know if he is the solution at short or not. That means beating all the rust off him at SS by having him play there every day for another month or so. (Pretty sure he had two errors in his short run.) There are other options at the other spots in the short run, and polishing Royce is far more important for later this year and beyond.
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If the Twins are in contention, and you want them to keep contending, forget any Correa trade. He won't want it, no contending team is going to give up the major league starters it would take to keep the Twins contending (because the Twins will be immediately worse after the trade), so the Twins won't want it either. You might trade someone else on the MLB roster, or more likely have to trade our own prospects. But not Correa. Because that make the team worse. If the Twins are out of contention, then a trade becomes more plausible. Correa would agree (maybe) to a trade from a non-contender to a contender. The Twins would agree to get worse in the short run to be better in the long run (but only if not contending). The trading partner would likely agree to surrendering prospects to get a piece that could deliver a championship now. But the return isn't going to be 'move the world' big for a half season; nobody's coughing up their top prospect. If Royce is hitting .320, you probably find a way to keep him up here, but otherwise you send him down to keep getting tons of games at shortstop, then call him back up in late August to help with the season end push. Because he will need to be the regular starter at short next season; Correa isn't coming back. (Twins aren't doing a 8-10 year deal, and if Correa keeps playing well, he can't afford to do the year-to-year thing and potentially lose over $100 million if something happens to him.)
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The Alex Kirilloff Situation Is a Colossal Bummer
PatPfund replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Sad, but good update. It backs up the eye test, which pretty much says Alex isn’t a major leaguer until the wrist is fixed. -
Montas is the only one pitching well enough right now to push aside players we already have. And we have more coming. Coughing up prospects for mediocre pitchers doesn't make sense unless the Reds want Bundy, Thielbar, and Vallimont for Castillo. Depending on whether we can get healthy again, there still remain a lot more questions with the offense. (Will our catchers hit much? Can we keep a healthy hitting LF? Will Max sustain his recent revival? Can Byron stay healthy? What happens at first if Miranda doesn't start hitting? Can we clone Urshela's defense and graft it onto Arraez, or if Lewis keeps mashing, does he combine bat and glove at 3B? Do we play Sano in RF again?)
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- luis castillo
- frankie montas
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Yankees Giving Twins Fits
PatPfund replied to Ted Schwerzler 's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Wow. The Twins are in first place even though battered by injuries (it feels like half the roster was playing for the Saints 3 weeks ago). And the villagers are out with torch and pitchfork demanding we dump most of our remaining vets. Is it disheartening that we were soundly thumped by the Astros? Yep. But all it really shows is our B squad isn't good enough to advance in the playoffs. Though it might be good enough to compete in our division, which gives us a chance to hang in there until the A team is back. Reality check: Urshela is our best defensive 3B by far with some amazing plays already on the year's highlight reel, and the article makes zero mention of that. Move him down the order until he hits, rotate him with others, but he can win us games with his glove alone (a big defensive upgrade over an aging, gimpy Donaldson). Sanchez is a decent backup catcher, with a far better bat than most backups (including Rortvedt), but admittedly weaker defense. I would agree with most that he should rarely DH, except many of the young batters who could help there have been worse than Sanchez. If the Twins get back the Larnach mashing before his injury, or Miranda has the MLB lamp go on, and/or Arraez can stay healthy, I think it is far more likely you see less of Sanchez in the DH slot (unless he starts hitting better). Reality check 2: Kirilloff is a mirage until he starts hitting, and with some pop. He hasn't been an MLB player since hurting his wrist last year, he says his wrist still bothers him, and if he doesn't figure it out soon, he'd be one of the first I'd send back to St Paul as people come off the IL. He probably needs lots of at-bats (or physical therapy) to figure it out, but I don't really want to see him getting them in a Twins uniform.- 45 replies
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- gary sanchez
- gio urshela
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I was surprised the game started as it was totally clear by 7pm that the front was large (cover half the state large), involved very severe weather, and was going to hit well before the 5th inning. I'm guessing management (probably including the Astros) knew it wouldn't finish, but figured however many innings they got in was that many less played in finishing the game today. With a regular rainstorm that might be a decent move, but the severity made it pretty sketchy (3 innings gained against exposing their fans to intense winds, rain, lightning, and threat of tornado). Can't help thinking this is a bit of fallout from the stupid lockout (teams have fewer off-days for makeups), and getting rid of the 7-inning doubleheaders (a d/h today would be 14 innings compared to the 15 they will play finishing the suspended game and then a full regulation game). Good thing the fallout was tragedy free this time.
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Alex Kirilloff is Becoming a Question
PatPfund replied to Ted Schwerzler 's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Alex Kirilloff is not a major league player right now, and shouldn't be in a Twins uniform. First step is to option him to St Paul, or put him on the IL to shut him down for a month of physical therapy/whatever-might-help. (And if the IL route is picked, then send him down for rehab, and don't recall him until he is hitting even if it means optioning him later.) Forget playing him at first in the meantime, because the last thing the Twins need is a .200/no-power 1B. And clear spots on the 40-man so we can bring up the players we actually need. (Including another bat so Buxton can go on the IL where he belongs. Letting him turn a minor strain into a chronic one would be a great way to torpedo this season.) -
Prospect Retrospective: OF Mark Contreras
PatPfund replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Pretty sure Byron would be on the IL if the Twins had a player to call up (like, say, Contreras) who was on the 40-man. I mean, seriously, are they really going to rush him back from the type of injury that cost him a big chunk of season last year? (Or do they keep him day-to-day, and keep a short bench shorter, because they literally can't call up good players for lack of 40-man spots.) -
Prospect Retrospective: OF Mark Contreras
PatPfund replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Great insurance if Kirilloff can't hit (and he hasn't yet in the year since injuring his wrist, which still bothers him), and for the Byron injury periods. It does highlight their wildly unbalanced 40-man roster, though. All their position players are up or hurt; a situation so bad that the only bat they could call up last weekend was a good-defense/low-offense catcher. Time to make a call on someone like Vallimont (who has been consistently awful), or put Sano on 60-day IL (something that could have been done with Enlow who was dreadful last week in his first outing), or package a few of the 'almost, but not quite' pitchers like Sands and Strotman to teams with a lower pitching bar for a prospect or something. Something to clear some space not only for players to help now, but also for the more legit prospects that will need Rule 5 protection soon. -
Miguel Sano: Boom, Bust, or Both?
PatPfund replied to Ted Schwerzler 's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I'm not asking for moral support. But he is a potential asset as long as he is not an active detriment (hence, the 'good teammate' comment). One of the ways he could help the team with a hot streak, is making himself viable as a late season rental for another team. Might not score much, but unless he plays enough to show himself a major leaguer, his current trade value is zero. And while I think the Twins have potential successors right now, Kirilloff still smells like a minor leaguer since his wrist injury, and Miranda has shown some promise, but hasn't locked himself in either. Sano may still be the best short term play when he gets back (though I hope not).- 34 replies
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- miguel sano
- alex kirilloff
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Miguel Sano: Boom, Bust, or Both?
PatPfund replied to Ted Schwerzler 's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
To answer the final question, Sano has been neither a bust, not has he justified the hype. All you have to do is read through the answers already given to come up with a one word description of Sano's career with the Twins: disappointment. I think the talent is there, and I don't "hate" Sano; he seems like a decent team-mate. But for whatever reason (too much pub as a kid, becoming enamored with HR distance, having it too easy early to put in the work, lack of hunger, I just don't know), he has been resistant to advice/coaching (Rod Carew's opinion, not just mine), and I don't think the full potential will ever be met. He is what he is unless the jolt of not being renewed lights a fire. And what he is, is thoroughly replaceable; if not during this season, then definitely in the offseason. I think he still gets too much credit here for what is rapidly becoming a distant past. Check his page on Baseball Reference (link below), and you will find of his 7.9 career WAR, he'd earned 5.5 of them by 2017 (aka 5 years ago). He really has only had one good year since, 2019, when he added 2.5. That means in the past three seasons (including what he has played of this season), Sano is a -.1 WAR, or just less than average. And almost all of the positive there was earned in the last half of last season when the Twins were essentially eliminated and dumping players. I'm not for cutting/releasing Sano as long as he remains a good teammate; he still could pop a decent hot streak that helps the team this year. But I'm ready to move on, and I expect the Twins are as well. https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sanomi01.shtml- 34 replies
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- miguel sano
- alex kirilloff
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Minor League Report (5/7): Top Pitching Prospects Galore
PatPfund replied to Matt Braun's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
As a pre-Twins affiliation Saints fan, those uniforms look like real Saints uniforms. Guess it's a matter of perspective as the powder blue ones make me gag (don't like the Twins version either), though ultimately you are right; the Saints were long-time Dodger affiliates and the independent league versions kept the color schemes. Agree on Steer; especially if Miranda sticks in St Paul, it probably is about time to move Steer up to AAA. (And maybe match that with moving Encarnacion-Strand to AA.) Enlow will be interesting to watch. For sure I would have waived Vallimont off the 40-man at the start of May, and probably would have put Enlow on the 60 day IL to open a 40-man spot (delaying his return to early June), because it sure looked like the Twins needed relief help. That option is gone now, though upside is the 'pen has been better lately. A 40-man roster crunch is coming, though. Every single position player on the 40-man is either playing for the Twins right now or is on the 10-day IL. So any help needed due to poor play or injury means somebody has to get bounced of the 40-man (or put on the 60-day IL; Sano might be a candidate for that depending on his recovery time). That means cuts at the MLB level, or marginal pitchers at the MiLB level, and Vallimont, Strotman, and maybe Enlow look like the ones most likely to slip through waivers right now. (The June deadline for reducing MLB pitchers to a max of 13 might be the next best time to try to sneak pitchers through waivers.)- 16 replies
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- jordan balazovic
- blayne enlow
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How Long of a Leash Should Dylan Bundy Get?
PatPfund replied to Cody Pirkl's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I'd guess another start or two or until Ober comes back and May ends (which means the Twins will be limited to 13 pitchers). I will say, that though I'm not shocked at Bundy's coming-back-to-Earth, I've actually been very impressed with both his team attitude, and frank honesty (especially concerning his last outing). I'm kind of hoping the Twins talk to him about trying the bullpen as a route to extend both his time on this team, and possibly his career. The short outings might give him just enough boost on the fastball to make the other stuff play, and if productive he might be great to have on the staff for off-field reasons as well. (But it is easier to run that experiment before pitcher numbers reduce from 14 to 13 in June.)- 46 replies
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- dylan bundy
- josh winder
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Well, first we need to see if he hits MLB pitching, or if further injuries don't rearrange things. Lots of players struggle with hitting on their first go including a kid named Mike Trout (or locally Buxton, Rooker, Larnach, Miranda); some figure it out pretty quickly, but Byron took years. But if he plays really well, I'm guessing he stays, and you could rotate him with Polanco and Correa through SS/2B/DH. If he plays solid, but shows lack of development in areas as a hitter or fielder, you send him down for everyday work.
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Sorry, I obscured the joke too much. It seems like every day I'm here saying a version of 'cool your jets until there is a shortstop position open for Royce; no outfield, 1st, 3rd, etc'. And said it so much I was almost shocked to realize this morning that I was ready to advocate promoting him. Dang. Next thing you know I'm going to be pushing for Thielbar and Duffey to be co-closers! (Well. Maybe not...)
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That last part does give me pause enough that I wouldn't sign up for the annual deal, but in all seriousness, producing the telecasts isn't free, and ultimately piracy isn't either (it just relocates the costs/incomes, or if that fails to happen then the business fails). If I don't like it, or watch much, I'll just revert to radio. But I do like to kick in for businesses I use, because I want them to stick around. Like Twins Daily! (My favorite discovery of 2022!) So all of you reading this, consider becoming a Caretaker!

