PatPfund

Your deal does make more sense for the Twins, but not Correa. It is roughly $100 million less, and there is close to zero chance Correa will make $100 million while he is 35-37 (it certainly wouldn't be at SS). That means it is DEEPLY in his interest to max out his current worth now when he can lure a team into thinking the wasted end-contract seasons are worth it. Barring injury, or his performance going in the tank (which I don't expect), Correa will opt out. If/when he opts out, he probably has about 5 years where he might be worth $35 million per, and that is as far as the Twins should look. in their offers. If/when he signs elsewhere, we should tip our cap for (hopefully) a great year, and take that $35 mill out for a spin on the FA market.

This is a worthwhile exercise, not because you get a starter for, say, Gio, but because you should consider veteran elements to a deal with prospects. Still.... This only identifies two veterans; you are not trading Correa unless you are a seller, and as many have pointed out, Sano has negative value, and has no time to create some. Polanco and Arraez and Buxton are more likely to be traded than Correa right now (and probably Jorge could make the 'vets to trade' list). Though it is likely a partner will want more prospects than vets, as someone pointed out, that isn't all (as Cruz for Ryan proved last season). But unless it involves getting a pitcher to slot in the top half of the rotation, I'm not super interested in 'pitching depth'. That isn't going to win a playoff series.

If we don't add a very good starting pitcher (not somebody to compete for the #4 or #5 spots), we don't need relievers. It doesn't matter who is in your 'pen if you start a game down by 5 runs, because you sent a marginal starter to the mound. I ripped the Capps trade in another thread, not because of how Capps pitched in the playoffs, but because he never got a chance to come into a close game. Also, because the Twins the Twins, who were chasing a starter, missed out on that and ended up trading their top prospect for a pitcher who was signed as a waived free agent, had a hot half season, then reverted to the norm and was quickly out of baseball. That is my biggest fear, that we get so used to thinking of our top prospects as disposable that we slip from good deal mode to "trade them for whatever we can get." Nobody on this list is worth a Miranda or Steer or Larnach. And if they can't get a starter first, they shouldn't make a deal at all. The biggest step needed to improve the bullpen is to decide to move on from Duffey, Thielbar, and likely Joe Smith (the early season days of batters being baffled by funky slow stuff is gone; as much for Smith as it likely is for Dylan Bundy). Get your head in that space, and you have some likely fixes in-house (Moran or Sisk could pitch better than Thielbar right now, and a new starter would push a better arm into the 'pen than Duffey).

Exactly! Like him the best of these options, and if they'd help us clear some 40-man dross, the salary might be worth the gamble.

We don't need bullpen arms to win a playoff game, and winning a playoff series (or more) is the ONLY reason the Twins should be "buying" this trade season. If we are making moves just to win a crappy division, and get swept in the first round, I'd rather roll with what we have, keep our prospects, and build for next year. (And relievers? Remember the stupid Ramos for Capps trade? Probably better than you remember the playoff games Matt Capps decided in our favor before he was quickly out of baseball. Since that was zero wins secured.) The only thing that will move the needle on playoff success is a starter good enough right now to fit into our top three, and none of these targets fit that mold as far as I can tell. (if it were offseason, sure, but "fixing" a pitcher mid-season seems too dubious to be dumping prospects.) Not saying the OP is wrong, just saying making the moves suggested are wrong. Unless the Rockies want a package of Strotman, Sands, Thielbar, and Duffey. I'd be all over that!

This is a good snapshot, but hopefully not fully correct. Because if it is... ...if the Twins are short a top quality starter (with which I agree), and most of the bullpen is junk outside of Duran (which isn't fully true, but Duffey, Thielbar, and probably Smith look like major liabilities), and we are only an average offense (not true except for the complete outages; the Twins are one of the leading scorers in the AL)... ...well, then there is little point making moves by the deadline, because you simply are NOT going to fix your rotation, bullpen, and offense with overpriced deadline trades. Better at that point to roll with what you have, and develop/build for next year. BUT, if you can improve your offense's consistency by adding a high average/high power/clutch bat like Alex Kirilloff, and help the rotation by getting Winder and/or Ober back healthy and productive, and improve your bullpen by adding a top quality starter and thereby push an arm or two into the bullpen (Winder has the stuff to be a high leverage arm; Ober might as well), and add someone internal like Sisk or Schulfer (or both)... ...well, then it boils down to adding a quality starting pitcher, and that is fully worth pushing chips into the pot to get.

Agree with most that Correa hasn't been much of a surprise (though FAs don't always perform as paid). Jax has been golden, and Kepler my happiest surprise (love him, but was ready to throw him overboard and move on). Agree with some/many that Celestino (who was originally roster fodder who might get sent down without playing much or at all) has been a big surprise. The talent was there, and now it has fully adapted to MLB at the plate and in the field. Smeltzer, though, should be on the original list instead of Correa; he has seriously bailed out a rotation felled by injuries, and has done so to such an extent that he should stay in the rotation until he proves he doesn't belong. (Not only competitive starts, but deep-bullpen-saving starts.) One sad honorable mention, is the contribution by absence of Miguel Sano. This team is clearly better without him, and I pretty much dread his return. Who knows, maybe the fear of being bypassed has him working hard to recover, and his rehab games will be marked by listening to coaching, and developing a more rounded batting approach (like ones he has temporarily flashed in the past). But I'm not holding my breath.

I don't see any way Correa is back next year short of a serious injury for him this year, or a collapse in the shortstop market. (Last year's market was warped by the extended lock out, which won't happen next year.) Correa has done nothing but add to his value so far, and for his part he will need to sign the long term deal he wants/needs ASAP since year-to-year contracts as he starts to edge out of his prime years means he would likely lose a LOT of money 5-10 years from now. Which is precisely why the Twins should NOT be the team that signs him to the long term deal. This isn't NY or Boston or LA or Chicago where there is a huge reservoir of TV money to cover the wasted back ends of these long deals, and the back ends ARE ALWAYS wasted money (or more rationally money paid over ten years for 5-7 years of prime output). (Want a current example? Everybody is excited that Miguel Cabrera got his 3000th hit this season, and he's great for baseball and all, but... the Tigers over the past 5.33 seasons have paid him a total of $158 million for a combined WAR of -1.1. Just as his contract helped make the Tigers very good in the early days, it all but locked in their ongoing status as bottom feeders for the past half-decade. The Twins simply can't afford the 10 year, $300 million thing for a SS who would be in his late 30s at the end.) Options 2 and 3 are the same thing. Play Palacios until Royce is ready, and use him to spell Royce after that. Gio would be an internal option as well if he is back, and if he hits enough to justify the drop in D; Miranda could play third. Gordon would need a lot of work before I'd want to see him everyday, but I'd give him that shot in Spring Training.

He's definitely an issue, and I think you are right that he might be sent down to work on hitting with less pressure (and real incentive). It's not great he's 25, but it also isn't too late to get better if the talent is there. Trips down have helped Buxton, Kirilloff, Larnach, and even Sano (temporarily) just to name some recent folks. Going down, and getting to stand in the box and just watch lefties pitch basically gave Denard Span a 10+ productive year. The minors might not fix him, but Godoy can certainly catch as well as Jeffers, and displayed a decent batting eye earlier this year, and there is no better time than now to see if they can get Jeffers right. I can't see how the team would be worse in the short run.

Great summary, including some realistic costs. My position is there is little reason to move in the next few weeks unless a golden deal drops out of nowhere (like the Correa signing). The base-level truth for me is that the Twins have a good enough team right now to compete for the division title in a low-bar season for divisional success. Settling for that doesn't wow me (probably like most reading this), but my next level 'truth' is that this team can only compete for success beyond the division by getting at least three of Gray, Ryan, Ober, and Winder back sustainably healthy and successful. Only at that point is it worth pushing serious chips into play for a very good starter. Relievers, unless dirt cheap, are pointless. Our 'pen isn't burnt out because we don't have relievers, it is fried because we don't have enough starters going 6, and seemingly have a Sands/Gonzalez bullpen game every third day. Adding a good pitcher to healthy returnees will push Bundy off the roster, alleviate the innings issue for the 'pen, and push a very good arm or two like Winder/Archer/Ober into relief, and that should push some of the bullpen deadwood like Duffey, Thielbar, and sadly Joe Smith off the roster. Kirilloff should be essentially untouchable. Lest we forget last week's offensive abyss against the Tigers, this team's offense is still super-streaky, and an elite high average power bat that plays solid defense (and who looked like a veteran when making his MLB debut in the playoffs), isn't something this team should give up for a part-time limited run pitcher. Especially with Lewis gone now. I'd also guess Miranda is probably the plan at 3B next year. But there are plenty other chips out there as many have pointed out. (Don't get the talk of dealing Moran now, though, by some people who say we need to ADD to the 'pen.) My guess is Montas will be too expensive (he has been up for sale since the end of last season with zero takers across the league), and frankly I'm not sure Mahle could even make our rotation if all four Twins SPs come back healthy (and, nope, a cherry-picked outing against a bad Arizona team doesn't excite me any more than did Martin Perez's "hot" start). But it's a big league, and there are good arms we don't even know are available yet (any more than we knew Carlos would be our SS).

Need a healthy rotation instead of 2 TBAs and Archer , but yeah. Bring the Yankees on in the first round

Think it is getting obvious. Jeffers belongs nowhere near the DH position; if he needs constant at-bats (and it sure looks like he does) that is what AAA is for. Call up Godoy, have Sanchez catch slightly more than half, and get the odd stint at DH. (If Jeffers can figure it out, and a trip to St Paul sure seems to have worked for Kirilloff), the Twins are a much better team, and downgrade the urgency for a catching plan next year. I suspect longer term that Miranda goes down to work on D (and being more selective at the plate), Kirilloff comes up and becomes part of a 1B/OF/DH rotation with Arraez (1B/2B/DH), Larnach (OF/DH), Garlick (OF/DH), Kepler (OF/DH), and a bit of Sanchez. And Sano (sadly as I see it). Twins should give him a good, long (as long as they can) rehab stint in St Paul whenever he is ready to play. Then hope he hits enough, soon enough to maybe be a trade chip at the deadline. No point in making any Lewis plans until there is some sort of timeline. Glad he isn't out for a year again, but it is likely to be weeks, and they need that knee healthy for the long term.

OMG. Sending a prospect for Perez would be on a par with sending top prospect and future All-Star Wilson Ramos for temporarily hot, but soon-to-be-out-of-baseball Matt Capps. I'd rather see Dylan Bundy start a playoff game than Martin Perez, even if we have to call Dylan out from his new job at the carwash. Perez may be a nice guy (seriously, he seems like a nice guy), but any GM that coughs up a serious prospect for a Perez 8 game hot streak (better this year, but of the sort he often has early) should be fired.

Short term, put Garlick on IL. The Twins keep hamstringing themselves (to use the obvious metaphor) by carrying injured people in order to spare them going on IL and thereby reducing their already short bench by one (or more) spots. Put Garlick on IL, call up Kirilloff, and split him between DH, 1B, and OF; Arraez can split time between 1st, 2nd, and DH. Sanchez can catch more than Jeffers (until/if he starts to hit), and occasionally DH (can't believe I just typed that, but he's been decent). (Buxton should also go on IL, but that's another thread.) If everyone else is healthy when Garlick comes back, send down Miranda to work on D. It won't kill him. I'm not worrying about what to do with Lewis until he actually nears readiness (and I expect it will be far enough out that he'll need rehab in St Paul, anyway).

Exactly. But they didn't. Saddest thing of all would be to look back in a month, and say 'if only the Twins had put Buxton on IL in early June he would be healthy now.' Get him steady treatment for the knee, Call up Kirilloff, use an actual HITTER in the DH slot (Arraez, Alex, Larnach, not the catcher hitting a buck and change), and forget 'trying him against the Yankees'. He's not going to get healthy playing (even with tons of time off) or he would have done it by now. (And the Twins just beat the hottest team in baseball starting their best pitcher without so much as an at-bat from Byron.) Alternative, or longer term plan, you send Miranda down to work on his defense at 1B (where he has hurt us badly a few times) just as you sent Lewis down to work on his 'other position' D. Along with the positive statement you want him back soon.

I've certainly had my issues with them in the past, but my clear heroes of the first third are the Falvines. After the utter failure of last year's team, they shook things up in ways that bruised a lot of fans, shipping some faves in Berrios (mid-year 2021), Garver, and Rogers (and Rortvedt, who I liked but who others clearly adore!), and an expensive pill (JD). You can argue details in each deal (or deals since so many overlapped), but this is a new team with a new attitude and new leaders mixing veterans (including new ones with playoff success) with young talent. It is also a team with far greater depth; depth that has been critical lately in the wake of waves of injuries. Lewis, Miranda, Palacios, Smeltzer, Moran, Cotton, and even Godoy have come up and made key contributions while also enhancing themselves as future Twins or possibly trade chips. My other hero is David Freakin' Popkins. The Twins have looked pathetic at the plate that past couple of years, but the new hitting coach actually has them using the whole field, and in particular seems to have resurrected Max Kepler from the grave. Keep it up dude!

Have to admit, (and this isn't usually the case with your articles), I'm seeing more of your personal bias than meat to Polanco's "problems". Yep, a slower than expected start, but most of the underlying stats show Jorge is striking the ball as well as last year. And hitting slightly better than the league, and leading the team in RBI, but you personally "don't care" about those two items, and refer to his line as "trash". I see Jorge finding his way in a radically different hitting environment; one that isn't announced, and literally has to be felt through inning by inning. Are multiple versions of balls in play? Are balls being 'humidored' unevenly? Who the hell knows? Like many, he is fighting through this while still producing as many (actually more) run scoring hits than any of his team-mates. I'm okay with that, happy to see him in the lineup, expect him to get better, and consider him one of the least of my concerns for the Twins.

Such a fun game tonight! And your recap captured a lot of that; baseball is the goofiest and Greatest game!

Good recap, but really too early to tell. I always liked Jose, but it never really came together for extended periods, and I expect the Jays paid way, way too much on the contract. Twins got some promising pieces, and right now the balance looks good for MN. But then so did the Twins pitching depth a month ago, so time will tell.

Excellent article showing a problem to work on, but... whoa. Drop a game to the Tigers, and people are jumping off cliffs. The feed above has judged the year in multiple posts as 'a failure' (this just in; we are in first place, 4.5 games ahead of the consensus pick to run away with the division). And, yep; being in first place at the start of June means the Twins are delivering on their promise to field a competitive team. Suggestions are there to release Pagan; dude has seven saves as part of a split closer situation, an ERA in the low 2s, and has regained a LOT more control (one walk in the last 7 games) without the entirely made up stat of trading walks for hits (his WHIP is 1.09 over the last seven games). He is NOT part of the bullpen's current issues. There is even some Berrios angst saying we didn't improve much adding Gray to replace Jose. Please. Gray is twice the pitcher Berrios has been over their careers (more than twice if you go by WAR), and three times the pitcher Berrios has been this year (-.5 WAR to Gray's .9). All of which doesn't cover up the issues on this team. To be competitive long term, they have to get healthy, because a more budget-ey roster needs its big players on the field to win over time. Correa, Buxton (who should be on the IL right now so he can GET healthy), Arraez, Gray, and Polanco are all tough to replace for more than a few games. And we definitely are missing Ryan and Winder; those are two non-smoke-and-mirror pitchers whose absence hurts both the rotation and the 'pen. While I do agree with Nick about the bullpen, the idea of trading everyday player prospects for a reliever (especially the mentioned middling RP from Milwaukee) is overboard. The bigger longer term issue here is starting pitching, and if we are shipping prospects, that's what I'd want them to go for. (Montas, sure, but if the As are still asking a price nobody in MLB has touched yet, there will be others.) Making the rotation stronger strengthens the 'pen in two ways; by reducing the innings load, and by pushing displaced starters into the 'pen.

The guy is VERY exciting to watch. But I'd think the first move would be to move him up to St Paul, and keep him in his limited starting situation. Gives him a run against better hitters, keeps him as stretched as he can be this year, and frankly the Saints could use him as a starter (bummer starting down six runs like last night). If that goes well, it might be more appropriate to talk about a call up in an opener or relief role. If I had to guess, I'd expect long-term he is more reliever; there is nothing smooth about his delivery, and he has little history of staying healthy as a starter using it.

I agree the 'pen is likely to need help; Duffey and Thielbar and Stashak have had nice recovery periods, but Tyler and Caleb have looked less than lockdown in most recent outings, and Stashak is pitching with reduced velocity that probably doesn't work against better teams. And we'd all eat fewer Tums if Pagan wasn't the main closer. But I'm guessing the Twins will find that help in their system rather than by trade. Moran, Canterino, Smeltzer, Cotton, and more all either bring shutdown ability or length, and don't cost anything more than a call up. A frontline starter would be great, and I like your target! I'd even pitch that to the Red Sox BEFORE Eovaldi straightens out to lower the cost (if he goes back to lights-out-98-mph-stuff, the cost even of a rental skyrockets at the deadline). Maybe we could pry him loose with a Strotman/Sands/Cotton package since they need help in the rotation and 'pen. I'd rate the batting need lower than pitching, but if you could wave a Sands/Cotton/Sano package at Boston for Martinez, I could live with that. For sure, I'm hoping trades not only add, but clear some of the plateauing prospects off the 40-man. The Twins finally made the needed Vallimont DFA, but they'll need more space this year, and into the offseason to use and protect real assets.

Is Royce a better shortstop than Correa (or Polanco)? Nope; not offensively or defensively. (But is he the future there if Correa is out or gone? Yes. The hitting looks mature, the fielding looks unpolished.) Is Royce a better LF than Gordon or Celestino; maybe bat, yes (though remember Larnach and Rooker tore it up for short stints at the start, but experience in fielding, no. Is Royce better at third than Urshela? Maybe again with the bat, maybe, but not defensively (not anywhere near defensively) yet. Is Royce a better fit than Arraez at 1B? Right now Arraez hits better and has a longer history of doing so. Defensively Royce might start equal, and get better with practice. Note the common thread. Yep, he can hit, but he is either talented/rough defensively (small sample, but no smaller than the hitting, Royce's fielding percentage so far is worse than any Correa has posted in his career), or talented/totally-inexperienced. Now where on Earth could the Twins put Royce to polish his weaknesses or inexperience, and still field a lineup as strong without him as with him. Maybe the minors? It's not a life sentence, it is the place to develop players until they are fully ready. I'd say I don't see why people can't see that, but I get the other side. A lot. But I also want to win both now and in October, and I'm willing to let the front office play chess since they seem much sharper at it than they were last year. And this team is stronger both in October and next year with a polished Royce Lewis.

One factor I don't see in the article or comments. This is a great strategy to have him healthy come playoff time. And the team's fortunes are MUCH shinier if he is playing in the postseason. Resting him regularly to let the body recover from his intense outputs makes sense, especially if you have him with a championship on the line.

Huh. The poor helpless-without-Royce Twins hung 14 on the board today. And won (which seems to be what terrifies a lot of people here). Won games before he came up, will win games (and lose some) with him getting better in AAA. Can call up a more polished/better player when need strikes again, or late in the season for a home stretch push. I can live with that.