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PatPfund

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  1. PatPfund
    I normally like your stuff, Jamie, but strongly disagree here. In order… You can disagree about rating, but adding a catcher is a VERY pressing need. Jeffers is the only one on the 40-man, and the MILB options don’t scream “Ready!” yet. My personal order would be #1 Starting Pitcher, OF (D and bat), Catcher (maybe bumping up to #2 if he can really hit). Bullpen depth is addressed by adding a #1 SP (pushing a starter into the ‘pen and a marginal arm to the minors). We absolutely do not need a long term solution at SS; we have Lewis back mid-season, and Lee possibly forcing his way to the majors around the same time. Signing a long term contract to the position our top two prospects play is a waste of money. Jeffers absolutely has NOT shown he can be a primary catcher. He’s been injured, people bring up his ability to throw out base-stealers, because he has been dreadful at it, and only if you cherry-pick a few 10 game stretches can you say his bat even belongs in the majors (his career batting average is .210, his 2022 was .208). He has promise, but since his 26 game debut in 2020, Ryan has really struggled to hit even .200. He should be a solid roster likelihood, but not THE answer at catcher. The third point misses the point that catching is now a time-share position. We NEED a catcher even with Jeffers, and the team gets much better if that catcher (Contreras? Vasquez?) can take the pressure off of Jeffers, pick up (legitimate) DH at-bats, and help in Ryan’s development. Get a real player, and let their play decide who is “primary”.
  2. PatPfund
    Bassit, but only if they fail on Rodon.
  3. PatPfund
    What @tarheeltwinsfan said. It is actually cheaper to be top bidder for Rodón now, than give away another package of our top prospects (further bankrupting our farm system and future) for a pitcher who will walk in a couple years unless he gets Rodón money anyway. And last year's team was NOT a pitcher away from winning it all; they need the SP, a few additions, and Lewis, Lee, and most the others in the packages being part of our core by 2024.
  4. PatPfund
    I guess we mostly disagree about his potential for next year. Sale was absolutely great (I follow the Red Sox secondarily to the Twins, and still get the e-Globe after living there a couple years), and at least one of his setbacks is a total fluke, but... in 2018 he had a couple bouts of shoulder issues that put him on the DL, in 2019 the Red Sox were super careful about workload all season, but still had to shut him down (I think shoulder again?) in mid August. In 2020 it was the UCL surgery. He's a tall (6' 6") dude who is REALLY skinny (180-ish), and the concerns about the stress he puts on his joints may not have been warranted in his 20s, but are potentially coming home to roost in his 30s. I wouldn't mind signing him to a one year Maeda-like 'make good' contract. And I'd base it more on healthy availability than innings pitched, because I think his true future is as closer where he could use that electric stuff in short outings that wouldn't blow joint gaskets. (After the way he slammed the door on the Dodgers in 2018, I can only imagine a combo of Sale and Duran to end games; it would be freakin' awesome!) But I'd still want the big contract to go to Rodón.
  5. PatPfund
    Ummm. Don't be shocked. There is no way 48 innings delivered across ELEVEN starts (aka 4 1/3 innings per start aka an unhealthy Chris Archer through a similar sample size) is elite. In his last season that was anything like full, Sale had an ERA over 4. There were indications he had some arm issues before Boston gave him the latest contract (the reason he pitched out of the 'pen in the '18 playoffs), and it blew up on them. Sale doesn't belong in the cream of anything until he proves it (probably on a Maeda-style contract); if the Twins go this route as their pitching move, it is just a slightly more upside version of Bundy/Archer/Happ/etc. They have the money free now, and Rodón should be the main target. It will probably take something like 4 (plus maybe an option), and high 20s to low 30s. Frankly the Falvines need to break form, and talk early big money to get Rodón's attention, then sign him so they can get to work on other issues. If they wait, or if they give a "fair" offer (like the one to Yu Darvish), they will be left on the outside again, and likely have to fall back on a far lesser option.
  6. PatPfund
    I was with Ted's original post until the throw-in line that you can afford both a frontline starter and Correa. Which is completely wrong. Sign Correa, and Rodón is gone. Sign Rodón and Correa is gone, because I agree with @jmlease1 that you are probably talking 5 years and pushing $30 milliion per year. And that is what I'd do, because we need a healthy Rodón more than we need Correa. (Reminder, we HAD Carlos this year and finished a distant 3rd in a weak division.) Nope (where I disagree with jm), we can't make up the rest with minimum contracts, because this team was not even close to being a player away; we need a starting catcher and another potent OF bat at least. And we both need to have our young players get healthy and develop into stars (possible), and still be able to sign them in 2-3 years (not possible if we tie up all of our money for 5 years on both the ace and SS).
  7. PatPfund
    He's a decent option especially since that gives you serious money to pursue other players as well. There are others (like IKF who may be non-tendered or available from the Yankees cheap because they are about to non-tender him, and we already know the Twins like him). The key is to not blow $35 million at shortstop, but get a solid MLB-player there, and spend most of the (fairly unprecedented) FA budget on Rodón, a starting catcher (like Vasquez or Contreras), and a starting OF (like Hanigar or Benintendi). That should make us far better than this year. Spending big on SS means we'll be pretty much like we were in 2022.
  8. PatPfund
    I totally agree with Ted that next year's Opening Day is probably not in the organization right now. Palacios was definitely the most MLB-ready, and he essentially played himself out of the competition in September (with at-bats of the quality that got pitchers replaced with the universal DH). We also demonstrably need far MORE than a shortstop since we had Correa this year, and were not good. Spending over $30 million on SS will both severely restrict adding in other areas of need (because the people who point out our roster is several players short of the current LCS teams are correct), and IT HAS LITTLE HISTORY OF WORKING. Because @Brett this year is NOT a fluke. No team in at least a decade has won the Series spending big dollars at SS. Your SS can be great or not (though they do need to be decent), but you need a complete roster around them, and NOBODY has managed that budget strategy successfully after committing big coin to SS. (And any team that pulls it off is almost certainly going to be one like the Yankees or Dodgers who have revenues that dwarf ours.) The Astros are the model here. Develop a great SS, play him through the arbitration years, then let him walk into free agency and move on so you can put money into proven areas of need (like elite starting pitching and higher power bats than any shortstop wields). The glove is most important here with a bat that doesn't hurt the order and a salary that doesn't limit the roster.
  9. PatPfund
    Well, clearly you read very little I wrote. I advocate spending $28-30 million a year on Rodón, and another roughly $20 million per year to get a STARTING catcher (Jeffers is a backup until he proves otherwise), and a starting OF, and you read that as "dont spend money at all?" Not sure how you got there, but you be you. It also seems you are making up the "If we aren't spending it on SS, we aren't spending it on anyone." There is no basis for that speculation (until last year the Twins had never spent anything like that ON shortstop), and without that tenet your argument kind of falls apart. FYI, the Twins HAD that SS this year, so essentially you are saying the Twins were a couple great BP arms and a quality backup catcher away this year, and while it might have helped in the division, and... well... I don't agree. If you could clone the 2022 Twins (especially the roster of the last two months when Correa was at his best), add two great bullpen arms to the originals, then delete Correa, and add Rodón, Christian Vasquez and Andrew Benintendi, I'd pick the Clones over the Originals in a 7 game series time after time. The Twins have a fairly rare abundance of unassigned FA/roster money this offseason. They have recent proof (aka the 2022 Twins and Rangers) a big money SS isn't "the" answer here. They may have noticed that NO recent Series winner (a decade plus and guaranteed already again for this year) had a big contract at SS. They also have been open to wildly unusual (for this franchise) wheeling and dealing including big contracts. So I think all bets are reasonably off on what they "will" do.
  10. PatPfund
    The deal should look even better next year. Especially if the Falvines dangle a 40-man bubble candidate like Enlow, and have IKF as their stopgap SS in '23. (Legit, if not spectacular, MLB glove and bat, and the ability to play all over including catcher if/when an in-house candidate proves ready to be the regular SS.)
  11. PatPfund
    Too expensive and too long term for SS (which really needs to be glove-first). And as several have pointed out, we need an ace before we need a SS, and we have other holes at C and OF that Bogaerts cannot fill (and will keep us from filling by soaking up most the FA money). Just a reminder that WE WERE NOT GOOD IN A BAD DIVISION this year WITH Correa. (And I guess I agree with @DocBauer's point; if you are going to this level, why not pay Correa for two more years since he is two years younger? Though I should add that I think both are a bad idea. Get Rodón while we have the coin free to do it.)
  12. PatPfund
    We clearly don't agree. The title is about the revolving door. The implication underpinning the point of the article is that the revolving door is why the Twins are not successful. You accept that, and therefore it makes sense to plunk down money to sign a long-term shortstop to fix it, and you also accept "the suggestion" of Correa. Which really isn't a suggestion, it is the WHOLE point of Ted's post (because in this and others he clearly shows that is what he wants). I openly reject the implication, and will openly state that I see no correlation between having the same starting shortstop and winning titles; Addison Russell only lasted a few years in MLB, and again, every team remaining in the fight this year is doing so with either a rookie at SS, or a backup, or both. I also believe, and it is based on the evidence I cited, that signing a big-buck shortstop will absolutely doom the Twins to failure. It didn't work for us this year (and I might add it didn't work for Texas who signed two long-term SSs), and the strategy hasn't won a title in MLB for over a decade. I wouldn't be surprised if that changes at some point in the near future (LAD? NYY if they sign Carlos?), but the exception is almost certainly going to be a big market/huge budget team that has star pitching and a great lineup already. Because I don't think the lack of big money shortstops winning titles is a fluke. I think this is a defense-first position where even the best tend to peak in their early MLB careers, that by the time they can command the big contracts you are paying for past performance, and that while a strong fielding shortstop can be key, devoting a large portion of your budget to the position is fatal for a mid-to-small market team. Such spending means you are probably shorting the positions where you need more offense than D, and it probably means you are shorting the pitching. I don't think the Twins can afford both Rodón and Correa, and I think signing Rodón will make the Twins a better team (because I saw them with Correa, and I also saw them win over 100 games in 2019 with revolving shortstops). Sign a cheap glove-first SS, sign Rodón, sign another bat or two (a catcher? and one who plays a good OF), and this team is far superior to any that fixes 'the revolving SS problem' by blowing the bulk of our FA money on a soon-to-fade star, and then fighting for pitching table scraps and reclamation bats to fill our just-as-important roster holes.
  13. PatPfund
    The whole premise here is wrong. (Well not the revolving door part.) You don't need an veteran superstar shortstop to win a title. You need a balanced roster and pitching. (And pitching.) The '87 and '91 Twins won the World Series with a solid SS in Gagne (again, solid but nobody's 'superstar'). In '65 they DID have a superstar at SS (Zoilo) and made the Series. The final four teams this year have shortstops that may turn into superstars, but they were on nobody's list of MLB's Top Ten SS last winter. Houston might be better this year than last after letting Correa go. The Braves won last year with a SS (Swanson) who LOST his arbitration bid to make 6.7 million. The 2020 Dodgers won with Cory Seager (clearly a star, and playoff MVP but not getting paid yet). The Nationals won in 2019 with Turner (not getting paid yet, but clearly a superstar). The 2018 Red Sox won with Xander Bogaerts (clearly a budding superstar but not getting paid yet). In 2017 the Astros won with a clear superstar (not getting paid yet) in Correa. In 2016 the Cubs won with Addison Russell who was good, but no superstar (never even 100 OPS+), and soon out of baseball. 2015 was the Royals and Escobar, 2014 and 2012 were the Giants and a young (not paid yet) Crawford. 2013 was the Red Sox with Iglesias and Bogaerts. So over the past 11 seasons NO team has signed a big bucks SS and won the Series with them (though many won with youngsters who later signed for big bucks. By teams that didn't then win the Series. That is unlikely to change for the Twins if they lock up Correa, because... The Twins JUST signed a big bucks SS (Correa), and finished a distant and fading third in a very weak division. History and common sense says to spend our FA budget on building a balanced roster (where we have clear holes at C and OF), and add an ace. Do that last first, because you WILL find a strong correlation between having an elite SP and World Series titles.
  14. PatPfund
    I'd also bet you were pretty confident last February that Correa wasn't signing with the Twins. And likely in June you were highly doubtful the Twins would go out and trade for a really good SP, a solid depth arm, and closer at the trading deadline. No shame in that, because I was 100% sure in both cases (and 100% wrong). But this front office, even in moves that haven't worked out (yet) is making far more aggressive moves than they (or any other group that I can remember) has made in the past. They clearly have the means (through excellent money management) to make this move (or others). They have the motivation (another lousy season, and ownership will almost have to roll heads). And I'm no longer 100% sure of anything, which is pretty refreshing. FYI... a) I am not a left/right fetishist (though Rocco clearly is); I'd rather see a legitimate left-handed hitter face a lefty than a AAA player like Kyle Garlick. Talent matters more than batting side. b) I'm also not locked in on who the bats are, but Andrew Benintendi hit .304 this year, stole 8 bags, had a 120 OPS+ while playing elite defense. His 2022 WAR of 3.2 would have placed him 4th on this year's Twins roster trailing only Correa, Arraez, and Buxton, and slightly ahead of Gio Urshela. He's played in the bright lights, his baseball IQ is light years beyond Celestino's, and Benintendi would be a serious upgrade over every Twins OF not named Buxton. (But again, that is just one option.)
  15. PatPfund
    I don't know all the answers to your questions. But if you don't sign a top SS and suck up $30-40 million a year for 8 years, and with other contracts like Sanchez and Sano off the books, you could sign Rodón to something like $28 million for multiple years, and still have around $22+ million per year to lure the needed bats. And unlike SP, you are not locked in on bats as much to one player; Vasquez would bring a league-average bat (which is distinctly above average for a catcher), solid D, and leadership at catcher. Benintendi would bring improved defense, health, and an MLB caliber bat to the lineup and OF. Those are only two options. Trades open others (like freeing up Kepler's salary, or trading for someone and having the available budget to lock them in) The main point being, that if you sign a top SS, I DO know the answers. They will all be "No". No Rodón, No Contreras, No Haniger. No better than 2022. (When, again, we were the worst team in baseball down the stretch with our big buck SS playing at the top of his game, and ALL LCS teams leaning on less expensive contracts at SS; even SD whose big money SS is suspended.)
  16. PatPfund
    ??? Don't you ever read things that make you giggle? Or am I supposed to agree with everything posted on the site? Especially the comments? I can pretty much guarantee that if everybody posted the same thing here, and everybody agreed with all of the articles, and I agreed with everybody else here, I'd never visit the site again. I come to learn, sometimes be inspired by other Twins fans, sometimes (okay, a lot) share their pain, and sometimes share my opinion (which is based on decades of playing and watching the game, and yep, is just as flawed as many others here). Renewing as a caretaker for next season will be a super easy call!
  17. PatPfund
    My point exactly. Last year's hot SS getting overpaid this year is NOT a ticket to a championship, building a complete roster is. If you don't sign Correa, you have $40-50 million available to supplement the roster. Enough to pursue and sign both Rodón and Contreras. With enough to add a Haniger/Benintendi bat/glove to our weak/injured OF. And a cheap defense-first SS to stopgap until in-house folks are ready. With luck, fewer injuries and some progression of young players, that team could compete. Sign Correa, and you kiss off that flexibility. For the better part of a decade. The Twins will look to fill in any other gaps on the cheap meaning we might be looking forward to 2022 replaying over and over. With the last few years having Correa being an overpaid below league average player ala Miguel Cabrera (or JD). There are lots of options (including trades which aren't even touched on here), but most of the best of them disappear if you lock up $30+ million for 8 years on a position that doesn't age well.
  18. PatPfund
    Brooks may have been a little rough, but Martin was absolutely brutal at short in the games I saw. Not sure you can clean that up in the off-season. Outfield might be more Martin's speed, and I'd love to see him (or pretty much ANYONE) push Gilberto down to AAA.
  19. PatPfund
    Just because you let somebody go off the 40 man doesn't mean they are gone (look how many times Cotton got waived this year). Stashak isn't on the bubble, he is a bounce from the 40 man as soon as they have to. Nobody is claiming a labrum-issue whose last good year was years ago, so he may well be back next year. Enlow is probably more likely to be claimed, but that still might be less than a 50-50 shot. So I guess he is on the bubble, but I won't lose sleep if Enlow gets dropped (especially if it protects a better player). There are likely to be better players on the waiver wire.
  20. PatPfund
    You sign him, and unless there is more trade value than you suggest, you keep him. He not only was better offensively than Donaldson, he was FAR superior defensively in large part, because he could actually play defensively (36 more games in the field this year than JD). And down the stretch, he was one of the few healthy MLB-caliber bats in our lineup (and another, Correa, will be gone soon). Don't dig the hole deeper, and keep Gio.
  21. PatPfund
    Funny how everyone wants to spend huge money on SS. There are now four teams left, and NONE of their shortstops would have made anyone's 'elite' list pre-season. Two are rookies. One is former Twin-for-a-day Kiner-Falefa. And the Phillies guy I'd never heard of before. All the big money (including our own Carlos Correa) is sitting at home. Spend the money instead on an ace and a couple serious bats (including an actual MLB catcher). Sign a good defense-first SS. You can get them cheap without shipping out prospects, and they don't have to be over-the-hill terminal weirdos like Simmons.
  22. PatPfund
    By WAR, Correa just had one of his best seasons. Yet the Twins were best when he struggled (and was injured), and they were the worst team in baseball down the stretch when he played his best. Houston was the best team in the AL regular season, and is one of two remaining in the AL post-season race, and they did it without Correa. Texas locked down the other top SS FAs last off-season, and missed the playoffs. As did Boston after signing Trevor Story. What all of this says to me is that the Twins have many more needs than Correa can fix, and if they sign him, they'll be going the cheap recycled parts again to fix the other problems, and we all know where that got us this year. It also says that big ticket shortstops in general are nice, but not at all necessary to make the playoffs or win the title. So don't waste money on an "elite" SS, but use the money instead to sign an ace pitcher. Sign Wilson Contreras. Sign a Benintendi or Haniger. Get a cheap glove-first SS. And maybe next year in the playoffs (with the requisite health and luck) a super-rich Correa can interview the new kid (or Lewis) after our first playoff win in two decades (the way he signed for big coin this year, but had time to interview the new kid in Houston).
  23. PatPfund
    This sort of metric is a decent tool, but you need to be realistic about its limitations. Celestino definitely has a good arm, but that is only as useful the smarts about where to throw it. Celestino isn't 'basically a rookie' any more. He is young but got serious play in '21 (when he WAS a rookie and one that essentially jumped from AA), and was a pretty standard fixture this year. And he still makes brutal mistakes (mis-directed throws, and some of the worst base-running I've ever seen from a fast runner in my decades of watching baseball). He is either un-coachable, or badly coached (I honestly don't know which, because he isn't the only bad base runner). His elite arm should start next season at AAA until the rest of his game is ready. To me, Correa generally threw the ball as hard as it needed to be thrown with a pretty high and accurate ceiling. This metric doesn't really account for that as is implied by the statement the Twins' shifts may have played a part in the results. Arraez's arm may be strong, and maybe the arm is under-served at 1B, but a) his fielding at 3B was a bit ragged, and b) he has a long history of leg issues; issues probably minimized this year in part by playing a position requiring less mobility. Playing him more at 2B and 3B might mean more IL time keeping his true asset (the bat) out of the lineup. Not a shock about Byron who shows if you have the tools to get to the ball, and know where to throw it, you can make this metric look good.
  24. PatPfund
    I had interest in Andrus, but not at $15 million. If the follow up comments are correct about that NOT being a lock, he would be worth approaching, but he'd only be a stopgap (even if Lewis can't come back at SS, Andrus is getting long in the tooth). I have no interest in the other 4 listed including Correa (unless he wants to re-sign a version of last year's contract if things don't work out on the FA front). All of them would require a long term commitment of so much money the Twins would be hamstrung in adding additional talent. And if 2023 showed anything, it was that adding a stud SS (who ended up having an above average year) is not the secret to making this team good. We need a different approach (like using some of that FA money on one top SP instead of 2-3 has-beens, adding a real catcher, and adding a healthy starting OF). If we are not carrying .200 averages over half of our lineup, we could actually sign a glove-first (not washed up/weird Simmons type) SS. (Giggles by the way for those who think our offense is fine. The Twins spent most of the year at/near the top of the Got Shut Out leaderboard. They struggled to drive in runs all year; a rookie who didn't even play the first month led the team with 60-odd RBI. The pitching staff was actually decent down the stretch, but a sporadic offense further decimated by injuries led to an MLB-worst record down the stretch.)
  25. PatPfund
    For sure Camargo, as somebody flashing MLB talents in a position of need for the Twins (the bat and the big arm); there certainly isn't a 'blocked' path at catcher. The other two would be nice, but I'm also hoping the Twins take a shot at injecting new talent by raiding other teams' minor league FAs.
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