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PatPfund

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  1. PatPfund
    I totally agree with Ted that next year's Opening Day is probably not in the organization right now. Palacios was definitely the most MLB-ready, and he essentially played himself out of the competition in September (with at-bats of the quality that got pitchers replaced with the universal DH). We also demonstrably need far MORE than a shortstop since we had Correa this year, and were not good. Spending over $30 million on SS will both severely restrict adding in other areas of need (because the people who point out our roster is several players short of the current LCS teams are correct), and IT HAS LITTLE HISTORY OF WORKING. Because @Brett this year is NOT a fluke. No team in at least a decade has won the Series spending big dollars at SS. Your SS can be great or not (though they do need to be decent), but you need a complete roster around them, and NOBODY has managed that budget strategy successfully after committing big coin to SS. (And any team that pulls it off is almost certainly going to be one like the Yankees or Dodgers who have revenues that dwarf ours.) The Astros are the model here. Develop a great SS, play him through the arbitration years, then let him walk into free agency and move on so you can put money into proven areas of need (like elite starting pitching and higher power bats than any shortstop wields). The glove is most important here with a bat that doesn't hurt the order and a salary that doesn't limit the roster.
  2. PatPfund
    Well, clearly you read very little I wrote. I advocate spending $28-30 million a year on Rodón, and another roughly $20 million per year to get a STARTING catcher (Jeffers is a backup until he proves otherwise), and a starting OF, and you read that as "dont spend money at all?" Not sure how you got there, but you be you. It also seems you are making up the "If we aren't spending it on SS, we aren't spending it on anyone." There is no basis for that speculation (until last year the Twins had never spent anything like that ON shortstop), and without that tenet your argument kind of falls apart. FYI, the Twins HAD that SS this year, so essentially you are saying the Twins were a couple great BP arms and a quality backup catcher away this year, and while it might have helped in the division, and... well... I don't agree. If you could clone the 2022 Twins (especially the roster of the last two months when Correa was at his best), add two great bullpen arms to the originals, then delete Correa, and add Rodón, Christian Vasquez and Andrew Benintendi, I'd pick the Clones over the Originals in a 7 game series time after time. The Twins have a fairly rare abundance of unassigned FA/roster money this offseason. They have recent proof (aka the 2022 Twins and Rangers) a big money SS isn't "the" answer here. They may have noticed that NO recent Series winner (a decade plus and guaranteed already again for this year) had a big contract at SS. They also have been open to wildly unusual (for this franchise) wheeling and dealing including big contracts. So I think all bets are reasonably off on what they "will" do.
  3. PatPfund
    The deal should look even better next year. Especially if the Falvines dangle a 40-man bubble candidate like Enlow, and have IKF as their stopgap SS in '23. (Legit, if not spectacular, MLB glove and bat, and the ability to play all over including catcher if/when an in-house candidate proves ready to be the regular SS.)
  4. PatPfund
    Too expensive and too long term for SS (which really needs to be glove-first). And as several have pointed out, we need an ace before we need a SS, and we have other holes at C and OF that Bogaerts cannot fill (and will keep us from filling by soaking up most the FA money). Just a reminder that WE WERE NOT GOOD IN A BAD DIVISION this year WITH Correa. (And I guess I agree with @DocBauer's point; if you are going to this level, why not pay Correa for two more years since he is two years younger? Though I should add that I think both are a bad idea. Get Rodón while we have the coin free to do it.)
  5. PatPfund
    We clearly don't agree. The title is about the revolving door. The implication underpinning the point of the article is that the revolving door is why the Twins are not successful. You accept that, and therefore it makes sense to plunk down money to sign a long-term shortstop to fix it, and you also accept "the suggestion" of Correa. Which really isn't a suggestion, it is the WHOLE point of Ted's post (because in this and others he clearly shows that is what he wants). I openly reject the implication, and will openly state that I see no correlation between having the same starting shortstop and winning titles; Addison Russell only lasted a few years in MLB, and again, every team remaining in the fight this year is doing so with either a rookie at SS, or a backup, or both. I also believe, and it is based on the evidence I cited, that signing a big-buck shortstop will absolutely doom the Twins to failure. It didn't work for us this year (and I might add it didn't work for Texas who signed two long-term SSs), and the strategy hasn't won a title in MLB for over a decade. I wouldn't be surprised if that changes at some point in the near future (LAD? NYY if they sign Carlos?), but the exception is almost certainly going to be a big market/huge budget team that has star pitching and a great lineup already. Because I don't think the lack of big money shortstops winning titles is a fluke. I think this is a defense-first position where even the best tend to peak in their early MLB careers, that by the time they can command the big contracts you are paying for past performance, and that while a strong fielding shortstop can be key, devoting a large portion of your budget to the position is fatal for a mid-to-small market team. Such spending means you are probably shorting the positions where you need more offense than D, and it probably means you are shorting the pitching. I don't think the Twins can afford both Rodón and Correa, and I think signing Rodón will make the Twins a better team (because I saw them with Correa, and I also saw them win over 100 games in 2019 with revolving shortstops). Sign a cheap glove-first SS, sign Rodón, sign another bat or two (a catcher? and one who plays a good OF), and this team is far superior to any that fixes 'the revolving SS problem' by blowing the bulk of our FA money on a soon-to-fade star, and then fighting for pitching table scraps and reclamation bats to fill our just-as-important roster holes.
  6. PatPfund
    The whole premise here is wrong. (Well not the revolving door part.) You don't need an veteran superstar shortstop to win a title. You need a balanced roster and pitching. (And pitching.) The '87 and '91 Twins won the World Series with a solid SS in Gagne (again, solid but nobody's 'superstar'). In '65 they DID have a superstar at SS (Zoilo) and made the Series. The final four teams this year have shortstops that may turn into superstars, but they were on nobody's list of MLB's Top Ten SS last winter. Houston might be better this year than last after letting Correa go. The Braves won last year with a SS (Swanson) who LOST his arbitration bid to make 6.7 million. The 2020 Dodgers won with Cory Seager (clearly a star, and playoff MVP but not getting paid yet). The Nationals won in 2019 with Turner (not getting paid yet, but clearly a superstar). The 2018 Red Sox won with Xander Bogaerts (clearly a budding superstar but not getting paid yet). In 2017 the Astros won with a clear superstar (not getting paid yet) in Correa. In 2016 the Cubs won with Addison Russell who was good, but no superstar (never even 100 OPS+), and soon out of baseball. 2015 was the Royals and Escobar, 2014 and 2012 were the Giants and a young (not paid yet) Crawford. 2013 was the Red Sox with Iglesias and Bogaerts. So over the past 11 seasons NO team has signed a big bucks SS and won the Series with them (though many won with youngsters who later signed for big bucks. By teams that didn't then win the Series. That is unlikely to change for the Twins if they lock up Correa, because... The Twins JUST signed a big bucks SS (Correa), and finished a distant and fading third in a very weak division. History and common sense says to spend our FA budget on building a balanced roster (where we have clear holes at C and OF), and add an ace. Do that last first, because you WILL find a strong correlation between having an elite SP and World Series titles.
  7. PatPfund
    I'd also bet you were pretty confident last February that Correa wasn't signing with the Twins. And likely in June you were highly doubtful the Twins would go out and trade for a really good SP, a solid depth arm, and closer at the trading deadline. No shame in that, because I was 100% sure in both cases (and 100% wrong). But this front office, even in moves that haven't worked out (yet) is making far more aggressive moves than they (or any other group that I can remember) has made in the past. They clearly have the means (through excellent money management) to make this move (or others). They have the motivation (another lousy season, and ownership will almost have to roll heads). And I'm no longer 100% sure of anything, which is pretty refreshing. FYI... a) I am not a left/right fetishist (though Rocco clearly is); I'd rather see a legitimate left-handed hitter face a lefty than a AAA player like Kyle Garlick. Talent matters more than batting side. b) I'm also not locked in on who the bats are, but Andrew Benintendi hit .304 this year, stole 8 bags, had a 120 OPS+ while playing elite defense. His 2022 WAR of 3.2 would have placed him 4th on this year's Twins roster trailing only Correa, Arraez, and Buxton, and slightly ahead of Gio Urshela. He's played in the bright lights, his baseball IQ is light years beyond Celestino's, and Benintendi would be a serious upgrade over every Twins OF not named Buxton. (But again, that is just one option.)
  8. PatPfund
    I don't know all the answers to your questions. But if you don't sign a top SS and suck up $30-40 million a year for 8 years, and with other contracts like Sanchez and Sano off the books, you could sign Rodón to something like $28 million for multiple years, and still have around $22+ million per year to lure the needed bats. And unlike SP, you are not locked in on bats as much to one player; Vasquez would bring a league-average bat (which is distinctly above average for a catcher), solid D, and leadership at catcher. Benintendi would bring improved defense, health, and an MLB caliber bat to the lineup and OF. Those are only two options. Trades open others (like freeing up Kepler's salary, or trading for someone and having the available budget to lock them in) The main point being, that if you sign a top SS, I DO know the answers. They will all be "No". No Rodón, No Contreras, No Haniger. No better than 2022. (When, again, we were the worst team in baseball down the stretch with our big buck SS playing at the top of his game, and ALL LCS teams leaning on less expensive contracts at SS; even SD whose big money SS is suspended.)
  9. PatPfund
    ??? Don't you ever read things that make you giggle? Or am I supposed to agree with everything posted on the site? Especially the comments? I can pretty much guarantee that if everybody posted the same thing here, and everybody agreed with all of the articles, and I agreed with everybody else here, I'd never visit the site again. I come to learn, sometimes be inspired by other Twins fans, sometimes (okay, a lot) share their pain, and sometimes share my opinion (which is based on decades of playing and watching the game, and yep, is just as flawed as many others here). Renewing as a caretaker for next season will be a super easy call!
  10. PatPfund
    My point exactly. Last year's hot SS getting overpaid this year is NOT a ticket to a championship, building a complete roster is. If you don't sign Correa, you have $40-50 million available to supplement the roster. Enough to pursue and sign both Rodón and Contreras. With enough to add a Haniger/Benintendi bat/glove to our weak/injured OF. And a cheap defense-first SS to stopgap until in-house folks are ready. With luck, fewer injuries and some progression of young players, that team could compete. Sign Correa, and you kiss off that flexibility. For the better part of a decade. The Twins will look to fill in any other gaps on the cheap meaning we might be looking forward to 2022 replaying over and over. With the last few years having Correa being an overpaid below league average player ala Miguel Cabrera (or JD). There are lots of options (including trades which aren't even touched on here), but most of the best of them disappear if you lock up $30+ million for 8 years on a position that doesn't age well.
  11. PatPfund
    Brooks may have been a little rough, but Martin was absolutely brutal at short in the games I saw. Not sure you can clean that up in the off-season. Outfield might be more Martin's speed, and I'd love to see him (or pretty much ANYONE) push Gilberto down to AAA.
  12. PatPfund
    Just because you let somebody go off the 40 man doesn't mean they are gone (look how many times Cotton got waived this year). Stashak isn't on the bubble, he is a bounce from the 40 man as soon as they have to. Nobody is claiming a labrum-issue whose last good year was years ago, so he may well be back next year. Enlow is probably more likely to be claimed, but that still might be less than a 50-50 shot. So I guess he is on the bubble, but I won't lose sleep if Enlow gets dropped (especially if it protects a better player). There are likely to be better players on the waiver wire.
  13. PatPfund
    You sign him, and unless there is more trade value than you suggest, you keep him. He not only was better offensively than Donaldson, he was FAR superior defensively in large part, because he could actually play defensively (36 more games in the field this year than JD). And down the stretch, he was one of the few healthy MLB-caliber bats in our lineup (and another, Correa, will be gone soon). Don't dig the hole deeper, and keep Gio.
  14. PatPfund
    Funny how everyone wants to spend huge money on SS. There are now four teams left, and NONE of their shortstops would have made anyone's 'elite' list pre-season. Two are rookies. One is former Twin-for-a-day Kiner-Falefa. And the Phillies guy I'd never heard of before. All the big money (including our own Carlos Correa) is sitting at home. Spend the money instead on an ace and a couple serious bats (including an actual MLB catcher). Sign a good defense-first SS. You can get them cheap without shipping out prospects, and they don't have to be over-the-hill terminal weirdos like Simmons.
  15. PatPfund
    By WAR, Correa just had one of his best seasons. Yet the Twins were best when he struggled (and was injured), and they were the worst team in baseball down the stretch when he played his best. Houston was the best team in the AL regular season, and is one of two remaining in the AL post-season race, and they did it without Correa. Texas locked down the other top SS FAs last off-season, and missed the playoffs. As did Boston after signing Trevor Story. What all of this says to me is that the Twins have many more needs than Correa can fix, and if they sign him, they'll be going the cheap recycled parts again to fix the other problems, and we all know where that got us this year. It also says that big ticket shortstops in general are nice, but not at all necessary to make the playoffs or win the title. So don't waste money on an "elite" SS, but use the money instead to sign an ace pitcher. Sign Wilson Contreras. Sign a Benintendi or Haniger. Get a cheap glove-first SS. And maybe next year in the playoffs (with the requisite health and luck) a super-rich Correa can interview the new kid (or Lewis) after our first playoff win in two decades (the way he signed for big coin this year, but had time to interview the new kid in Houston).
  16. PatPfund
    This sort of metric is a decent tool, but you need to be realistic about its limitations. Celestino definitely has a good arm, but that is only as useful the smarts about where to throw it. Celestino isn't 'basically a rookie' any more. He is young but got serious play in '21 (when he WAS a rookie and one that essentially jumped from AA), and was a pretty standard fixture this year. And he still makes brutal mistakes (mis-directed throws, and some of the worst base-running I've ever seen from a fast runner in my decades of watching baseball). He is either un-coachable, or badly coached (I honestly don't know which, because he isn't the only bad base runner). His elite arm should start next season at AAA until the rest of his game is ready. To me, Correa generally threw the ball as hard as it needed to be thrown with a pretty high and accurate ceiling. This metric doesn't really account for that as is implied by the statement the Twins' shifts may have played a part in the results. Arraez's arm may be strong, and maybe the arm is under-served at 1B, but a) his fielding at 3B was a bit ragged, and b) he has a long history of leg issues; issues probably minimized this year in part by playing a position requiring less mobility. Playing him more at 2B and 3B might mean more IL time keeping his true asset (the bat) out of the lineup. Not a shock about Byron who shows if you have the tools to get to the ball, and know where to throw it, you can make this metric look good.
  17. PatPfund
    I had interest in Andrus, but not at $15 million. If the follow up comments are correct about that NOT being a lock, he would be worth approaching, but he'd only be a stopgap (even if Lewis can't come back at SS, Andrus is getting long in the tooth). I have no interest in the other 4 listed including Correa (unless he wants to re-sign a version of last year's contract if things don't work out on the FA front). All of them would require a long term commitment of so much money the Twins would be hamstrung in adding additional talent. And if 2023 showed anything, it was that adding a stud SS (who ended up having an above average year) is not the secret to making this team good. We need a different approach (like using some of that FA money on one top SP instead of 2-3 has-beens, adding a real catcher, and adding a healthy starting OF). If we are not carrying .200 averages over half of our lineup, we could actually sign a glove-first (not washed up/weird Simmons type) SS. (Giggles by the way for those who think our offense is fine. The Twins spent most of the year at/near the top of the Got Shut Out leaderboard. They struggled to drive in runs all year; a rookie who didn't even play the first month led the team with 60-odd RBI. The pitching staff was actually decent down the stretch, but a sporadic offense further decimated by injuries led to an MLB-worst record down the stretch.)
  18. PatPfund
    For sure Camargo, as somebody flashing MLB talents in a position of need for the Twins (the bat and the big arm); there certainly isn't a 'blocked' path at catcher. The other two would be nice, but I'm also hoping the Twins take a shot at injecting new talent by raiding other teams' minor league FAs.
  19. PatPfund
    Great article. I have a ton of respect for Cave as a guy who lays it all on the line, and plays with hustle and baseball smarts. (If Gilberto Celestino had half of that savvy hustle he could be a solid starting OF; as it is I'd rather see Cave playing.) I also think Jake is playing at his ceiling, and that is probably as AAA depth. Glad he is getting an opportunity with Baltimore, because if he is getting the innings he got down the stretch here (and in the middle of the order at times), the Twins are probably in crisis mode. The planned OF depth chart has melted down two years in a row now, and the Twins need to address it that in the offseason with a serious addition to the roster. Going into 2023 with only Gordon as the only healthy MLB OF on the roster with a full healthy year won't cut it.
  20. PatPfund
    Short answer is Yes!!! Because, does he really 'mash lefties'? His four year OPS+ is 98. In two years with the Twins, and starting mostly against LHPs he has 14 HR and 28 RBI (meaning a full half of his RBIs were himself), and an OBP under .300. Then there is the health thing; we faced a radical string of something like 7 straight starts by LHP and Garlick was available for 0. DFA him, and sign him to a minor league contract (if he is willing) with a spring training invite. He'll make a decent litmus test; if he can make next year's team (with Max still a clear starter), we are in for trouble. If he is minor league depth, that's fine, because that is what he is. Plus, I'm with @Linus. No Celestino until he shows in the minors he actually knows how to play baseball. I already thought he was one of the stupider players I'd ever seen, and then he forgot the count and started jogging to 2B, because he thought the batter walked (there were only 3 balls). I also agree with @Parfigliano that Gilberto is an "anchor". The kind that pulls you down to the bottom if you hold onto it.
  21. PatPfund
    The OP's list is as good as any; tough to get fired up about the 40 man crunch. We'll let go a lot of players nobody else is interested in (especially DFAs with large contracts). We'll expose a few (maybe a few) that might get picked up. And we'll survive the loss. (This just in; the Twins had a sub-.500 season, several players being amped about were the subs, and most teams have more prospects to be taken than we do. Trevor Megill for example sure looks replacement level to me; I wouldn't keep a roster spot for him. Ditto for Garlick. We probably can't DFA Celestino for real, but I'd love if his space cadet act played elsewhere.) My shopping list would be a starting catcher (Jeffers can be the backup until he earns a platoon split) like Wilson Contreras. A #1 starting pitcher (like Rodon). A starting OF; possibly in trade, or maybe a Benintendi. A stopgap SS like Elvis Andrus. If Alcala's recovery is on track, and if we sign a #1 SP (which would push at least one good arm into the 'pen), I wouldn't amp heavily about the bullpen. Wouldn't hurt to sign a Fulmer type (maybe Fulmer?) and I hear Taylor Rogers might be available. But health and offense/defense is probably more important for a change than pitching.
  22. PatPfund
    @stringer bell Excellent, sober summary. There definitely needs to be some turnover, and frankly most of it is needed on the offensive side. First of all, it would help if we could get Polanco back to some sort of fair health. I suspect they missed his steady RBI performance (even in a down year he was leading the team when injured) more than Buxton down the stretch (sure Byron's better, but when has he ever been healthy in September?). Another in-house hot topic in the comments is Kirilloff; frankly the Twins shouldn't even plan on him being in MLB unless they get off-season reports he is fully-healed, pain-free, and mashing legitimate pitching in practice sessions. Though it might be just as likely he never plays in the majors again. There will be plenty of money (Carlos $ + Miguel $ + Sanchez $ just to start) to pursue solid answers (because Correa isn't coming back). Everyone can come up with their own plan, but I'd chase a Rodon type, a real hitting catcher (Wilson Contreras/Christian Vasquez?) or one that can throw out runners, and acquire (trade/FA) a legitimate starting OF (Benintendi?). I'd guess some of our youngsters will pan out, but betting the farm on it (as was done this year) and counting on Byron staying healthy (as was done this year) is a dream, not a plan. (I like Max, but if he is legitimately one of our starting OFs in 2023, we didn't fix the problem enough). Add a stopgap SS (Adrianza? Andrus?) and a bullpen arm or two (I hear Taylor Rogers is available), and we are set!
  23. PatPfund
    We keep thinking OF is a strength, yet for the second straight year we've had a parade of overmatched AAA players/people 'learning on the job' out there. LF is a grab-bag, CF is 'who is filling in for Byron' and RF is the injured/weak-hitting Max and more wannabees. Not counting on Alex (I'd love to be surprised, but...), Wallner has promise (albeit on a very short track), Larnach looks solid. Celestino might have talent, but the most charitable view is he got jumped too fast from AA (the less favorable opinion is he is one of the least intelligent players I've seen in a while with a pop-less/low average bat). Gordon looks better than all of them right now. If I were the Twins, I'd add at least one serious (as in starting) OF, and let the rest duke it out. If they can't push Max to be either much better, or into a reserve role, I doubt this team will be contending for the playoffs next year.
  24. PatPfund
    I spent most of the year assuming he'd be gone. Now I think you offer arbitration and gladly pay $10 million for the quality of player/teammate/hitter/continuity. This won't be a team 'with little turnover'; Correa is opting out, and he is one of of the (only) five decent hitters in our lineup (Urshela, Arraez, Miranda, and Gordon being the others). Kirilloff had experimental surgery; he may be back next year or never again. The outfield options are both intriguing and too young/injured to count on. We need help behind the plate. So have Gio back next year; just arbitration if you only want the one year, or sign him for a few. And take at least one big question mark off the board.
  25. PatPfund
    All the talk about what the Twins are going to do, about how they are leaving Correa dangling, about how they can't make up their mind cracks me up. Correa has a three year contract with the Twins; the team made their decision and commitment by promising $100 million plus for three years. The only decision to be made is Correa's; he has the opt out. It was always clear he was going to take it unless he was too hurt/bad for the open market, and all he did was confirm that. Glad the Twins got him, glad he came, and I won't have any hard feelings when he signs elsewhere. Great player. But... He was healthy most of the year, and this team with him couldn't win the weakest division, or (it appears likely) even finish .500 playing a schedule loaded with teams from that weakest division. Signing him to a Seager contract doesn't fix a team that couldn't win with him, it just makes it harder to actually win. If (when) Correa opts out, this team has serious holes to fill (#1 pitcher; either a 'hitting' catcher that actually hits, or one better defensively than either now on the roster, or both; and a strong outfield bat who can force Max and the young 'uns to fight for the third slot/ByronBackup/reserve OF). (Like some others, I laughed at the 'Lee, 5 yr' thing. Not sure he'll stick at SS, but he hit .300 across two levels of A ball, then .370 in the A and AA playoffs finishing with 3 hits in Wichita's last game. I'd bet he opens 2023 with the Wind Surge, and finishes with the Saints and an MLB taste.) The Twins can find a solid stopgap that won't win them a title by himself, but will let them add the extra talent that might get them into that neighborhood.
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