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PatPfund

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  1. PatPfund
    My point exactly. Last year's hot SS getting overpaid this year is NOT a ticket to a championship, building a complete roster is. If you don't sign Correa, you have $40-50 million available to supplement the roster. Enough to pursue and sign both Rodón and Contreras. With enough to add a Haniger/Benintendi bat/glove to our weak/injured OF. And a cheap defense-first SS to stopgap until in-house folks are ready. With luck, fewer injuries and some progression of young players, that team could compete. Sign Correa, and you kiss off that flexibility. For the better part of a decade. The Twins will look to fill in any other gaps on the cheap meaning we might be looking forward to 2022 replaying over and over. With the last few years having Correa being an overpaid below league average player ala Miguel Cabrera (or JD). There are lots of options (including trades which aren't even touched on here), but most of the best of them disappear if you lock up $30+ million for 8 years on a position that doesn't age well.
  2. PatPfund
    Brooks may have been a little rough, but Martin was absolutely brutal at short in the games I saw. Not sure you can clean that up in the off-season. Outfield might be more Martin's speed, and I'd love to see him (or pretty much ANYONE) push Gilberto down to AAA.
  3. PatPfund
    Just because you let somebody go off the 40 man doesn't mean they are gone (look how many times Cotton got waived this year). Stashak isn't on the bubble, he is a bounce from the 40 man as soon as they have to. Nobody is claiming a labrum-issue whose last good year was years ago, so he may well be back next year. Enlow is probably more likely to be claimed, but that still might be less than a 50-50 shot. So I guess he is on the bubble, but I won't lose sleep if Enlow gets dropped (especially if it protects a better player). There are likely to be better players on the waiver wire.
  4. PatPfund
    You sign him, and unless there is more trade value than you suggest, you keep him. He not only was better offensively than Donaldson, he was FAR superior defensively in large part, because he could actually play defensively (36 more games in the field this year than JD). And down the stretch, he was one of the few healthy MLB-caliber bats in our lineup (and another, Correa, will be gone soon). Don't dig the hole deeper, and keep Gio.
  5. PatPfund
    Funny how everyone wants to spend huge money on SS. There are now four teams left, and NONE of their shortstops would have made anyone's 'elite' list pre-season. Two are rookies. One is former Twin-for-a-day Kiner-Falefa. And the Phillies guy I'd never heard of before. All the big money (including our own Carlos Correa) is sitting at home. Spend the money instead on an ace and a couple serious bats (including an actual MLB catcher). Sign a good defense-first SS. You can get them cheap without shipping out prospects, and they don't have to be over-the-hill terminal weirdos like Simmons.
  6. PatPfund
    By WAR, Correa just had one of his best seasons. Yet the Twins were best when he struggled (and was injured), and they were the worst team in baseball down the stretch when he played his best. Houston was the best team in the AL regular season, and is one of two remaining in the AL post-season race, and they did it without Correa. Texas locked down the other top SS FAs last off-season, and missed the playoffs. As did Boston after signing Trevor Story. What all of this says to me is that the Twins have many more needs than Correa can fix, and if they sign him, they'll be going the cheap recycled parts again to fix the other problems, and we all know where that got us this year. It also says that big ticket shortstops in general are nice, but not at all necessary to make the playoffs or win the title. So don't waste money on an "elite" SS, but use the money instead to sign an ace pitcher. Sign Wilson Contreras. Sign a Benintendi or Haniger. Get a cheap glove-first SS. And maybe next year in the playoffs (with the requisite health and luck) a super-rich Correa can interview the new kid (or Lewis) after our first playoff win in two decades (the way he signed for big coin this year, but had time to interview the new kid in Houston).
  7. PatPfund
    This sort of metric is a decent tool, but you need to be realistic about its limitations. Celestino definitely has a good arm, but that is only as useful the smarts about where to throw it. Celestino isn't 'basically a rookie' any more. He is young but got serious play in '21 (when he WAS a rookie and one that essentially jumped from AA), and was a pretty standard fixture this year. And he still makes brutal mistakes (mis-directed throws, and some of the worst base-running I've ever seen from a fast runner in my decades of watching baseball). He is either un-coachable, or badly coached (I honestly don't know which, because he isn't the only bad base runner). His elite arm should start next season at AAA until the rest of his game is ready. To me, Correa generally threw the ball as hard as it needed to be thrown with a pretty high and accurate ceiling. This metric doesn't really account for that as is implied by the statement the Twins' shifts may have played a part in the results. Arraez's arm may be strong, and maybe the arm is under-served at 1B, but a) his fielding at 3B was a bit ragged, and b) he has a long history of leg issues; issues probably minimized this year in part by playing a position requiring less mobility. Playing him more at 2B and 3B might mean more IL time keeping his true asset (the bat) out of the lineup. Not a shock about Byron who shows if you have the tools to get to the ball, and know where to throw it, you can make this metric look good.
  8. PatPfund
    I had interest in Andrus, but not at $15 million. If the follow up comments are correct about that NOT being a lock, he would be worth approaching, but he'd only be a stopgap (even if Lewis can't come back at SS, Andrus is getting long in the tooth). I have no interest in the other 4 listed including Correa (unless he wants to re-sign a version of last year's contract if things don't work out on the FA front). All of them would require a long term commitment of so much money the Twins would be hamstrung in adding additional talent. And if 2023 showed anything, it was that adding a stud SS (who ended up having an above average year) is not the secret to making this team good. We need a different approach (like using some of that FA money on one top SP instead of 2-3 has-beens, adding a real catcher, and adding a healthy starting OF). If we are not carrying .200 averages over half of our lineup, we could actually sign a glove-first (not washed up/weird Simmons type) SS. (Giggles by the way for those who think our offense is fine. The Twins spent most of the year at/near the top of the Got Shut Out leaderboard. They struggled to drive in runs all year; a rookie who didn't even play the first month led the team with 60-odd RBI. The pitching staff was actually decent down the stretch, but a sporadic offense further decimated by injuries led to an MLB-worst record down the stretch.)
  9. PatPfund
    For sure Camargo, as somebody flashing MLB talents in a position of need for the Twins (the bat and the big arm); there certainly isn't a 'blocked' path at catcher. The other two would be nice, but I'm also hoping the Twins take a shot at injecting new talent by raiding other teams' minor league FAs.
  10. PatPfund
    Great article. I have a ton of respect for Cave as a guy who lays it all on the line, and plays with hustle and baseball smarts. (If Gilberto Celestino had half of that savvy hustle he could be a solid starting OF; as it is I'd rather see Cave playing.) I also think Jake is playing at his ceiling, and that is probably as AAA depth. Glad he is getting an opportunity with Baltimore, because if he is getting the innings he got down the stretch here (and in the middle of the order at times), the Twins are probably in crisis mode. The planned OF depth chart has melted down two years in a row now, and the Twins need to address it that in the offseason with a serious addition to the roster. Going into 2023 with only Gordon as the only healthy MLB OF on the roster with a full healthy year won't cut it.
  11. PatPfund
    Short answer is Yes!!! Because, does he really 'mash lefties'? His four year OPS+ is 98. In two years with the Twins, and starting mostly against LHPs he has 14 HR and 28 RBI (meaning a full half of his RBIs were himself), and an OBP under .300. Then there is the health thing; we faced a radical string of something like 7 straight starts by LHP and Garlick was available for 0. DFA him, and sign him to a minor league contract (if he is willing) with a spring training invite. He'll make a decent litmus test; if he can make next year's team (with Max still a clear starter), we are in for trouble. If he is minor league depth, that's fine, because that is what he is. Plus, I'm with @Linus. No Celestino until he shows in the minors he actually knows how to play baseball. I already thought he was one of the stupider players I'd ever seen, and then he forgot the count and started jogging to 2B, because he thought the batter walked (there were only 3 balls). I also agree with @Parfigliano that Gilberto is an "anchor". The kind that pulls you down to the bottom if you hold onto it.
  12. PatPfund
    The OP's list is as good as any; tough to get fired up about the 40 man crunch. We'll let go a lot of players nobody else is interested in (especially DFAs with large contracts). We'll expose a few (maybe a few) that might get picked up. And we'll survive the loss. (This just in; the Twins had a sub-.500 season, several players being amped about were the subs, and most teams have more prospects to be taken than we do. Trevor Megill for example sure looks replacement level to me; I wouldn't keep a roster spot for him. Ditto for Garlick. We probably can't DFA Celestino for real, but I'd love if his space cadet act played elsewhere.) My shopping list would be a starting catcher (Jeffers can be the backup until he earns a platoon split) like Wilson Contreras. A #1 starting pitcher (like Rodon). A starting OF; possibly in trade, or maybe a Benintendi. A stopgap SS like Elvis Andrus. If Alcala's recovery is on track, and if we sign a #1 SP (which would push at least one good arm into the 'pen), I wouldn't amp heavily about the bullpen. Wouldn't hurt to sign a Fulmer type (maybe Fulmer?) and I hear Taylor Rogers might be available. But health and offense/defense is probably more important for a change than pitching.
  13. PatPfund
    @stringer bell Excellent, sober summary. There definitely needs to be some turnover, and frankly most of it is needed on the offensive side. First of all, it would help if we could get Polanco back to some sort of fair health. I suspect they missed his steady RBI performance (even in a down year he was leading the team when injured) more than Buxton down the stretch (sure Byron's better, but when has he ever been healthy in September?). Another in-house hot topic in the comments is Kirilloff; frankly the Twins shouldn't even plan on him being in MLB unless they get off-season reports he is fully-healed, pain-free, and mashing legitimate pitching in practice sessions. Though it might be just as likely he never plays in the majors again. There will be plenty of money (Carlos $ + Miguel $ + Sanchez $ just to start) to pursue solid answers (because Correa isn't coming back). Everyone can come up with their own plan, but I'd chase a Rodon type, a real hitting catcher (Wilson Contreras/Christian Vasquez?) or one that can throw out runners, and acquire (trade/FA) a legitimate starting OF (Benintendi?). I'd guess some of our youngsters will pan out, but betting the farm on it (as was done this year) and counting on Byron staying healthy (as was done this year) is a dream, not a plan. (I like Max, but if he is legitimately one of our starting OFs in 2023, we didn't fix the problem enough). Add a stopgap SS (Adrianza? Andrus?) and a bullpen arm or two (I hear Taylor Rogers is available), and we are set!
  14. PatPfund
    We keep thinking OF is a strength, yet for the second straight year we've had a parade of overmatched AAA players/people 'learning on the job' out there. LF is a grab-bag, CF is 'who is filling in for Byron' and RF is the injured/weak-hitting Max and more wannabees. Not counting on Alex (I'd love to be surprised, but...), Wallner has promise (albeit on a very short track), Larnach looks solid. Celestino might have talent, but the most charitable view is he got jumped too fast from AA (the less favorable opinion is he is one of the least intelligent players I've seen in a while with a pop-less/low average bat). Gordon looks better than all of them right now. If I were the Twins, I'd add at least one serious (as in starting) OF, and let the rest duke it out. If they can't push Max to be either much better, or into a reserve role, I doubt this team will be contending for the playoffs next year.
  15. PatPfund
    I spent most of the year assuming he'd be gone. Now I think you offer arbitration and gladly pay $10 million for the quality of player/teammate/hitter/continuity. This won't be a team 'with little turnover'; Correa is opting out, and he is one of of the (only) five decent hitters in our lineup (Urshela, Arraez, Miranda, and Gordon being the others). Kirilloff had experimental surgery; he may be back next year or never again. The outfield options are both intriguing and too young/injured to count on. We need help behind the plate. So have Gio back next year; just arbitration if you only want the one year, or sign him for a few. And take at least one big question mark off the board.
  16. PatPfund
    All the talk about what the Twins are going to do, about how they are leaving Correa dangling, about how they can't make up their mind cracks me up. Correa has a three year contract with the Twins; the team made their decision and commitment by promising $100 million plus for three years. The only decision to be made is Correa's; he has the opt out. It was always clear he was going to take it unless he was too hurt/bad for the open market, and all he did was confirm that. Glad the Twins got him, glad he came, and I won't have any hard feelings when he signs elsewhere. Great player. But... He was healthy most of the year, and this team with him couldn't win the weakest division, or (it appears likely) even finish .500 playing a schedule loaded with teams from that weakest division. Signing him to a Seager contract doesn't fix a team that couldn't win with him, it just makes it harder to actually win. If (when) Correa opts out, this team has serious holes to fill (#1 pitcher; either a 'hitting' catcher that actually hits, or one better defensively than either now on the roster, or both; and a strong outfield bat who can force Max and the young 'uns to fight for the third slot/ByronBackup/reserve OF). (Like some others, I laughed at the 'Lee, 5 yr' thing. Not sure he'll stick at SS, but he hit .300 across two levels of A ball, then .370 in the A and AA playoffs finishing with 3 hits in Wichita's last game. I'd bet he opens 2023 with the Wind Surge, and finishes with the Saints and an MLB taste.) The Twins can find a solid stopgap that won't win them a title by himself, but will let them add the extra talent that might get them into that neighborhood.
  17. PatPfund
    The season isn't over yet, though it may be soon. Catcher should be a major area to address in the offseason. Assuming Correa opts out, I'd take that money and pursue Wilson Contreras hard. (Jeffers can be his backup until he actually hits for more than a couple weeks every other month.) We aren't "stuck" with Sanchez at all; he is a FA after the season. There should be enough money with Sanchez's coin off the payroll to pursue Carlos Rodon seriously as well. If you land him, a Rodon, Gray (who is under team control), Mahle, Maeda, and Ryan rotation with Winder, Ober, Varland, SWR, Paddack, and maybe even Dobber as depth/long pen arms seems more than competitive. (Also, Balazovic is looking recovered from his injury with some recent domination.) Maybe look for extra help for the 'pen, but as noted, we are better off than last spring already. Third area is supposed to be a strength, outfield. It is not a strength; for the second straight year we have had a parade of marginal players filling in for the eternally injured. Maybe the shift things helped, but one of my personal favorites, Max Kepler, looks like a fourth outfielder. He can't hit consistently (hasn't for years now), and he can't stay healthy. Byron can't stay healthy enough to play outfield for even a half season. Larnach and Kirilloff might be back and healthy, or they might not. Celestino still looks like AAAA level. Some nights he makes me say Wow! and others (especially when running the bases) he makes me say 'wow' (in pain). Bottom line, they should probably go after a starting outfielder with a good bat tool. And give some of their top minor leaguers (like Wallner) and Gordon every chance to knock Max out of the starting lineup.
  18. PatPfund
    Wow. Couldn't disagree more. Frustrating? Only in that most of us cared about the team deep into the season (and it is exceedingly clear now that a title is unlikely). That is what being a fan is about; following your team through the highs and lows, and living the pain and glory along with that team. Want to save on frustration? Never listen/watch a game live again; just stream complete Wins out of the MLB.tv archive, and you'll never need to be frustrated or surprised again. Also, stop following a team, and just hop from bandwagon to bandwagon watching only winners. Do that, and I guarantee you'll be frustration free, right next to this year's eventual champions, and hanging with the champions for the rest of your life. And pretty freaking bored. This team did NOT come into the season with great expectations; yep, picked for second in the division, but a distant second. They played in the division lead most of the season. They had things work (Miranda, Gordon, Larnach for a while), got some solid play from expected players, had lots of adversity, some serious peaks and valleys in management (seriously, how many roster-days have we played short, because the Twins carried hurt players who should have been on the IL, and I've seen Little League teams run the bases better). But the result isn't frustration, it is joy, pain, regret, glory, humility. The reason you follow a team.
  19. PatPfund
    We have two "offensive" catchers who can't hit, but play defense like bat-first catchers. Use some of the Correa money to get Wilson Contreras. Or failing that, bring up one of the 'guys playing other positions' (not sure why that is a problem as long as they hit substantially better than what we have). They might get something out of Jeffers still, but they certainly shouldn't plan around it.
  20. PatPfund
    I love Miranda, believe he belongs in the Rookie Top Ten, and believe that like his hitting, his defense is getting better. He is a true gem. But Twins all-time rookie? Tony Oliva's rookie year (1964) he hit .323, scored 109 runs, stole a dozen bags, hit 32 HR and 43 doubles, knocked in 94, won the AL batting title, finished fourth in AL MVP, and won ROY. (Then followed it up with another batting title the next year, the first time anyone in MLB history had won the batting title in each of their first two years.) That's a high rookie bar that nobody else in this franchise has ever come close to clearing.
  21. PatPfund
    Moran is a major league arm with a fatal (if he doesn't fix it) control problem. He's already walked his way off the MLB roster a couple times, and it isn't a small sample thing; he's wild wherever he pitches. I don't really see why it would be any different with another call up until whatever mechanical/head issue is addressed. I'm sure they'll give Jovani another shot this year, but frankly I'd rather see Peacock or Schulfer or Sisk. (They might not be better, but I haven't seen them walk the bases full like I have Moran.)
  22. PatPfund
    Well... I'm old. I actually listen to the radio on the radio (in my car, or on my old transistor in the garage or yard, in bed on my clock radio, or in the kitchen on my antique vacuum tube radio). In Mankato that would be AM 1420 or FM 102.7. Ditch the apps and listen to the game for free. And free of software and its glitches. (Or don't. It's a free country!)
  23. PatPfund
    Maybe Rocco reads Twins Daily! Smeltzer had an honest to goodness long relief stint tonight (and did well at it).
  24. PatPfund
    Bundy isn't most pitchers. He can easily throw 100 pitches, but for once I agree with Rocco. Against potent lineups, the 88 mph fastball starts to look like batting practice the third time around. There is a reason there are VERY FEW pitchers in MLB throwing that speed. Love the guts, but it only gets you so far.
  25. PatPfund
    The OP is dead on target. You can argue back and forth about whether Sands should be the person (small sample recent outings show maybe?), but as Cody pointed out, there have been several capable long relievers on the roster this year, and none of them have gotten consistent long outings. Despite the built-in need for long RP to pair with Archer (and to a lesser extent, Bundy). And the big problem with under-usage (beyond wearing the 'pen to tatters with 3-5 of them pitching per game) is you destroy the ability of a long RP to stay "long". It is the reverse of 'stretching' out a pitcher. This pretty much falls on the manager. Rocco has his strengths, but it feels like he doesn't really get the pitching part, so he goes with a regular plan of pulling people after two times through the order, and mix/matching single inning folks the rest of the way, probably based on some data, but missing the balance of who is rolling, who is not, and what the load may be over several days. When we don't have off days, you end up with fried RPs along with clearly irritating his lead starter. (In Rocco's defense, though, I think Archer has only thrown back to back 5 inning efforts once, and ended up on the IL immediately thereafter, and he consistently gets wilder as his outings go on. He really isn't physically up to carrying more innings, which in turn calls for a long RP. Plus, after Gray walked two in the 7th the other day, his pitch count was 92; even Sonny seemed to acknowledge it was time by saying he appreciated the chance to pitch into the 7th and he'd do better with the next opportunity.)
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