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  1. PatPfund
    Great article. I have a ton of respect for Cave as a guy who lays it all on the line, and plays with hustle and baseball smarts. (If Gilberto Celestino had half of that savvy hustle he could be a solid starting OF; as it is I'd rather see Cave playing.) I also think Jake is playing at his ceiling, and that is probably as AAA depth. Glad he is getting an opportunity with Baltimore, because if he is getting the innings he got down the stretch here (and in the middle of the order at times), the Twins are probably in crisis mode. The planned OF depth chart has melted down two years in a row now, and the Twins need to address it that in the offseason with a serious addition to the roster. Going into 2023 with only Gordon as the only healthy MLB OF on the roster with a full healthy year won't cut it.
  2. PatPfund
    Short answer is Yes!!! Because, does he really 'mash lefties'? His four year OPS+ is 98. In two years with the Twins, and starting mostly against LHPs he has 14 HR and 28 RBI (meaning a full half of his RBIs were himself), and an OBP under .300. Then there is the health thing; we faced a radical string of something like 7 straight starts by LHP and Garlick was available for 0. DFA him, and sign him to a minor league contract (if he is willing) with a spring training invite. He'll make a decent litmus test; if he can make next year's team (with Max still a clear starter), we are in for trouble. If he is minor league depth, that's fine, because that is what he is. Plus, I'm with @Linus. No Celestino until he shows in the minors he actually knows how to play baseball. I already thought he was one of the stupider players I'd ever seen, and then he forgot the count and started jogging to 2B, because he thought the batter walked (there were only 3 balls). I also agree with @Parfigliano that Gilberto is an "anchor". The kind that pulls you down to the bottom if you hold onto it.
  3. PatPfund
    The OP's list is as good as any; tough to get fired up about the 40 man crunch. We'll let go a lot of players nobody else is interested in (especially DFAs with large contracts). We'll expose a few (maybe a few) that might get picked up. And we'll survive the loss. (This just in; the Twins had a sub-.500 season, several players being amped about were the subs, and most teams have more prospects to be taken than we do. Trevor Megill for example sure looks replacement level to me; I wouldn't keep a roster spot for him. Ditto for Garlick. We probably can't DFA Celestino for real, but I'd love if his space cadet act played elsewhere.) My shopping list would be a starting catcher (Jeffers can be the backup until he earns a platoon split) like Wilson Contreras. A #1 starting pitcher (like Rodon). A starting OF; possibly in trade, or maybe a Benintendi. A stopgap SS like Elvis Andrus. If Alcala's recovery is on track, and if we sign a #1 SP (which would push at least one good arm into the 'pen), I wouldn't amp heavily about the bullpen. Wouldn't hurt to sign a Fulmer type (maybe Fulmer?) and I hear Taylor Rogers might be available. But health and offense/defense is probably more important for a change than pitching.
  4. PatPfund
    @stringer bell Excellent, sober summary. There definitely needs to be some turnover, and frankly most of it is needed on the offensive side. First of all, it would help if we could get Polanco back to some sort of fair health. I suspect they missed his steady RBI performance (even in a down year he was leading the team when injured) more than Buxton down the stretch (sure Byron's better, but when has he ever been healthy in September?). Another in-house hot topic in the comments is Kirilloff; frankly the Twins shouldn't even plan on him being in MLB unless they get off-season reports he is fully-healed, pain-free, and mashing legitimate pitching in practice sessions. Though it might be just as likely he never plays in the majors again. There will be plenty of money (Carlos $ + Miguel $ + Sanchez $ just to start) to pursue solid answers (because Correa isn't coming back). Everyone can come up with their own plan, but I'd chase a Rodon type, a real hitting catcher (Wilson Contreras/Christian Vasquez?) or one that can throw out runners, and acquire (trade/FA) a legitimate starting OF (Benintendi?). I'd guess some of our youngsters will pan out, but betting the farm on it (as was done this year) and counting on Byron staying healthy (as was done this year) is a dream, not a plan. (I like Max, but if he is legitimately one of our starting OFs in 2023, we didn't fix the problem enough). Add a stopgap SS (Adrianza? Andrus?) and a bullpen arm or two (I hear Taylor Rogers is available), and we are set!
  5. PatPfund
    We keep thinking OF is a strength, yet for the second straight year we've had a parade of overmatched AAA players/people 'learning on the job' out there. LF is a grab-bag, CF is 'who is filling in for Byron' and RF is the injured/weak-hitting Max and more wannabees. Not counting on Alex (I'd love to be surprised, but...), Wallner has promise (albeit on a very short track), Larnach looks solid. Celestino might have talent, but the most charitable view is he got jumped too fast from AA (the less favorable opinion is he is one of the least intelligent players I've seen in a while with a pop-less/low average bat). Gordon looks better than all of them right now. If I were the Twins, I'd add at least one serious (as in starting) OF, and let the rest duke it out. If they can't push Max to be either much better, or into a reserve role, I doubt this team will be contending for the playoffs next year.
  6. PatPfund
    I spent most of the year assuming he'd be gone. Now I think you offer arbitration and gladly pay $10 million for the quality of player/teammate/hitter/continuity. This won't be a team 'with little turnover'; Correa is opting out, and he is one of of the (only) five decent hitters in our lineup (Urshela, Arraez, Miranda, and Gordon being the others). Kirilloff had experimental surgery; he may be back next year or never again. The outfield options are both intriguing and too young/injured to count on. We need help behind the plate. So have Gio back next year; just arbitration if you only want the one year, or sign him for a few. And take at least one big question mark off the board.
  7. PatPfund
    All the talk about what the Twins are going to do, about how they are leaving Correa dangling, about how they can't make up their mind cracks me up. Correa has a three year contract with the Twins; the team made their decision and commitment by promising $100 million plus for three years. The only decision to be made is Correa's; he has the opt out. It was always clear he was going to take it unless he was too hurt/bad for the open market, and all he did was confirm that. Glad the Twins got him, glad he came, and I won't have any hard feelings when he signs elsewhere. Great player. But... He was healthy most of the year, and this team with him couldn't win the weakest division, or (it appears likely) even finish .500 playing a schedule loaded with teams from that weakest division. Signing him to a Seager contract doesn't fix a team that couldn't win with him, it just makes it harder to actually win. If (when) Correa opts out, this team has serious holes to fill (#1 pitcher; either a 'hitting' catcher that actually hits, or one better defensively than either now on the roster, or both; and a strong outfield bat who can force Max and the young 'uns to fight for the third slot/ByronBackup/reserve OF). (Like some others, I laughed at the 'Lee, 5 yr' thing. Not sure he'll stick at SS, but he hit .300 across two levels of A ball, then .370 in the A and AA playoffs finishing with 3 hits in Wichita's last game. I'd bet he opens 2023 with the Wind Surge, and finishes with the Saints and an MLB taste.) The Twins can find a solid stopgap that won't win them a title by himself, but will let them add the extra talent that might get them into that neighborhood.
  8. PatPfund
    The season isn't over yet, though it may be soon. Catcher should be a major area to address in the offseason. Assuming Correa opts out, I'd take that money and pursue Wilson Contreras hard. (Jeffers can be his backup until he actually hits for more than a couple weeks every other month.) We aren't "stuck" with Sanchez at all; he is a FA after the season. There should be enough money with Sanchez's coin off the payroll to pursue Carlos Rodon seriously as well. If you land him, a Rodon, Gray (who is under team control), Mahle, Maeda, and Ryan rotation with Winder, Ober, Varland, SWR, Paddack, and maybe even Dobber as depth/long pen arms seems more than competitive. (Also, Balazovic is looking recovered from his injury with some recent domination.) Maybe look for extra help for the 'pen, but as noted, we are better off than last spring already. Third area is supposed to be a strength, outfield. It is not a strength; for the second straight year we have had a parade of marginal players filling in for the eternally injured. Maybe the shift things helped, but one of my personal favorites, Max Kepler, looks like a fourth outfielder. He can't hit consistently (hasn't for years now), and he can't stay healthy. Byron can't stay healthy enough to play outfield for even a half season. Larnach and Kirilloff might be back and healthy, or they might not. Celestino still looks like AAAA level. Some nights he makes me say Wow! and others (especially when running the bases) he makes me say 'wow' (in pain). Bottom line, they should probably go after a starting outfielder with a good bat tool. And give some of their top minor leaguers (like Wallner) and Gordon every chance to knock Max out of the starting lineup.
  9. PatPfund
    Wow. Couldn't disagree more. Frustrating? Only in that most of us cared about the team deep into the season (and it is exceedingly clear now that a title is unlikely). That is what being a fan is about; following your team through the highs and lows, and living the pain and glory along with that team. Want to save on frustration? Never listen/watch a game live again; just stream complete Wins out of the MLB.tv archive, and you'll never need to be frustrated or surprised again. Also, stop following a team, and just hop from bandwagon to bandwagon watching only winners. Do that, and I guarantee you'll be frustration free, right next to this year's eventual champions, and hanging with the champions for the rest of your life. And pretty freaking bored. This team did NOT come into the season with great expectations; yep, picked for second in the division, but a distant second. They played in the division lead most of the season. They had things work (Miranda, Gordon, Larnach for a while), got some solid play from expected players, had lots of adversity, some serious peaks and valleys in management (seriously, how many roster-days have we played short, because the Twins carried hurt players who should have been on the IL, and I've seen Little League teams run the bases better). But the result isn't frustration, it is joy, pain, regret, glory, humility. The reason you follow a team.
  10. PatPfund
    We have two "offensive" catchers who can't hit, but play defense like bat-first catchers. Use some of the Correa money to get Wilson Contreras. Or failing that, bring up one of the 'guys playing other positions' (not sure why that is a problem as long as they hit substantially better than what we have). They might get something out of Jeffers still, but they certainly shouldn't plan around it.
  11. PatPfund
    I love Miranda, believe he belongs in the Rookie Top Ten, and believe that like his hitting, his defense is getting better. He is a true gem. But Twins all-time rookie? Tony Oliva's rookie year (1964) he hit .323, scored 109 runs, stole a dozen bags, hit 32 HR and 43 doubles, knocked in 94, won the AL batting title, finished fourth in AL MVP, and won ROY. (Then followed it up with another batting title the next year, the first time anyone in MLB history had won the batting title in each of their first two years.) That's a high rookie bar that nobody else in this franchise has ever come close to clearing.
  12. PatPfund
    Moran is a major league arm with a fatal (if he doesn't fix it) control problem. He's already walked his way off the MLB roster a couple times, and it isn't a small sample thing; he's wild wherever he pitches. I don't really see why it would be any different with another call up until whatever mechanical/head issue is addressed. I'm sure they'll give Jovani another shot this year, but frankly I'd rather see Peacock or Schulfer or Sisk. (They might not be better, but I haven't seen them walk the bases full like I have Moran.)
  13. PatPfund
    Well... I'm old. I actually listen to the radio on the radio (in my car, or on my old transistor in the garage or yard, in bed on my clock radio, or in the kitchen on my antique vacuum tube radio). In Mankato that would be AM 1420 or FM 102.7. Ditch the apps and listen to the game for free. And free of software and its glitches. (Or don't. It's a free country!)
  14. PatPfund
    Maybe Rocco reads Twins Daily! Smeltzer had an honest to goodness long relief stint tonight (and did well at it).
  15. PatPfund
    Bundy isn't most pitchers. He can easily throw 100 pitches, but for once I agree with Rocco. Against potent lineups, the 88 mph fastball starts to look like batting practice the third time around. There is a reason there are VERY FEW pitchers in MLB throwing that speed. Love the guts, but it only gets you so far.
  16. PatPfund
    The OP is dead on target. You can argue back and forth about whether Sands should be the person (small sample recent outings show maybe?), but as Cody pointed out, there have been several capable long relievers on the roster this year, and none of them have gotten consistent long outings. Despite the built-in need for long RP to pair with Archer (and to a lesser extent, Bundy). And the big problem with under-usage (beyond wearing the 'pen to tatters with 3-5 of them pitching per game) is you destroy the ability of a long RP to stay "long". It is the reverse of 'stretching' out a pitcher. This pretty much falls on the manager. Rocco has his strengths, but it feels like he doesn't really get the pitching part, so he goes with a regular plan of pulling people after two times through the order, and mix/matching single inning folks the rest of the way, probably based on some data, but missing the balance of who is rolling, who is not, and what the load may be over several days. When we don't have off days, you end up with fried RPs along with clearly irritating his lead starter. (In Rocco's defense, though, I think Archer has only thrown back to back 5 inning efforts once, and ended up on the IL immediately thereafter, and he consistently gets wilder as his outings go on. He really isn't physically up to carrying more innings, which in turn calls for a long RP. Plus, after Gray walked two in the 7th the other day, his pitch count was 92; even Sonny seemed to acknowledge it was time by saying he appreciated the chance to pitch into the 7th and he'd do better with the next opportunity.)
  17. PatPfund
    I was very interested last spring with the promises to be up by around the beginning of July. Even checked in. But no baseball means no dice for me. If the Twins are on it next spring, I can see going month to month for a bit. Though maybe not. Radio works, doesn't lock me down to locations/devices, and I can watch archive games if I do MLB.tv
  18. PatPfund
    Correa could opt back in, depending on how things finish (I once was 99% "No way", but that might be down to 80% now). He has to make that call within 5 days of the end of the World Series, and the decision will have major implications for the rest of the Twins' off-season plans. His opt-in is the only way any of the OP players are on next year's MN roster. The rest obviously help any MLB team, but... A. This regime is not spending that kind of long-term money on people in the back-half of their prime... or really anybody. B. The team has bigger needs elsewhere. We don't really need a backup catcher; we have three of those right now (our bat-first catchers hit about the same as our defensive catcher). What we need is a starting catcher. With some of their freed up money, a run at Wilson Contreras would be nice. So would at least one more SP, though I'd look more for this FO to find one in the trade market instead of getting into a bidding war. (However, we do potentially get Ober, Maeda, and Winder back along with Paddack in June.) Re-signing Fulmer and another solid relief arm would also be nice. If AK's recovery looks doubtful, I'd expect the Twins to go with Miranda/Arraez at 1B, and then bring back Urshela at 3B.
  19. PatPfund
    Fair assessment. If Winder, Ober, and Maeda all come back healthy in 2-3 weeks, my hope is the Twins talk to Archer about the bullpen. Yes, I know he doesn't want that, but he also isn't going to turn into some sort of playoff weapon (as the Twins hoped); at least not as a starter. He might have the stuff that pumps up effectively for an inning or so. If he says 'no', well... I'd rather have any of the returning three opening ball games than Archer at this point. (Meaning I'd waive good-bye to him along with Pagan, and an option for Sands/Megill to make room if needed. With thanks for doing most of what they hoped for.)
  20. PatPfund
    Gray is an easy option call (yes). I'd open talks with him, but not be too quick to extend. (He's not young, and has his own injury history.) It cracks me up there is still Sano hope out there. The OPS+ cited in the OP (117?) would be great for a shortstop, but for a poor fielding 1B/DH it's pretty mediocre. Plus (like all of Miguel-follower stats) it is a career total, which totally obscures the fact that Sano has only had 3 (out of eight) good seasons; 2015, 2017, and 2019. He was terrible in 2020, terrible when it mattered last year before padding his stats in garbage time, and terrible again this year. He's 29, has the sort of big body that doesn't age well in this game, and has an injury history that suggests he is not likely to buck those odds. Buy him out, and offer him a minor league deal if he's floating around in February. Bundy is actually easy. No way you do the option, but for a guy who wanted him gone in May, he's sort of won me over a bit with his ability to wring the max out of meager stuff. I'd buy him out on good terms, and tell him to stay in touch, and see about adding him late (or talking bullpen). But don't get into a bidding war, or pay $8-9 million for a aging guy with a 87 mph fastball. When Winder and Ober get back in a few weeks (if not before) the Twins should talk to Archer about moving to the 'pen. He might have the stuff to dominate an inning, but as someone who used to like this project, he simply hasn't gained any length over the season, and he really isn't a starter right now; he's an opener. If he won't flex, I don't see him back. I could even see him being released this season. Of more immediate concern, though, Winder, Ober, and Maeda will need roster spots. Pagan might be one. I could see Archer being another. And Megill a third.
  21. PatPfund
    They will have more players (hopefully) healthy, but not Paddack (probably more June-ish '23), and Lewis would have to be way ahead of schedule to be playing in the spring. Kirilloff's surgery is radical for a baseball player; he may be back at full strength or never play again. Dobnak hasn't had a healthy season in two years, so I'm not holding my breath. Twins also (possibly) lose Fulmer to FA, and I don't see either Bundy or Archer back (unless he wants to try bullpen work). A healthy Alcala probably makes the team, and I'm fine if Stashak, Coulombe, and Romero don't. Nobody is likely to claim them (Cotton and Smeltzer are probably better than all of them, and have both cleared waivers this season), and they can figure it out with the Saints or another organization. Pretty sure Byron will be in CF and Kepler in RF unless something radical happens (they are under contract) with Larnach front-runner for LF. Garlick is a nice role player, but if he is starting everyday this isn't a very good team.
  22. PatPfund
    Great piece! You have good choices, but personally, I’d want Larnach back on offense, then Ober, Winder, Maeda in any order. The Jeffers bat was starting to make a difference late, but Leon makes that loss much less with better defense than either Sanchez or Jeffers.
  23. PatPfund
    Actually, that is precisely what you do. Prospect status is temporary, you either bust, or graduate to the majors (nobody currently ranks Miranda among the Twins' top prospects, because he is no longer a prospect; he is, in fact, a former top prospect). The more accurate example is "Former U of M student becomes millionaire."
  24. PatPfund
    Bummed out. Clearly some major talent, but most of the potential wasted due to injuries (some truly random, but a lot set up by his own admissions that fitness/diet wasn't a big priority in many offseasons). Don't know him enough to say for sure, but from the outside he looks like someone gifted with so much ability he just leaned on that rather than working to build on it. It can get you to the bigs, but talent plus work beats raw talent in the race to be elite. For sure, I think he fell in love with distance to the detriment of hitting (even with a clear example/mentor in Nelson Cruz), but that's not news. I also always thought the Twins did a major mis-service by not sending him down during his first regression. Nobody likes that, but sometimes you need to be benched, or get a chance to reset out of the spotlight to take the final step. But that's a guess, too. Maybe, despite the flash, he just wasn't good enough to stick, or too big to stay healthy. Definitely bummed out, though, because the potential was only touched in flashes.
  25. PatPfund
    Great piece. The last play was a bummer, but it doesn't overcast the week for me. The Twins made really good moves, the team should be stronger, and each of the adds has had one or more moments to shine. Cole Sands actually (finally?) looked like he might be a useful pitcher tonight, and the Twins played a possible playoff matchup quite well (something noted by the Jays TV crew) this weekend. Who knows how it will all shake out, but the Twins are already playing meaningful games about two months later than last year with a great chance of October baseball in Minnesota. This sort of chance is what baseball fans live for!
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