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PatPfund

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Everything posted by PatPfund

  1. PatPfund
    The season isn't over yet, though it may be soon. Catcher should be a major area to address in the offseason. Assuming Correa opts out, I'd take that money and pursue Wilson Contreras hard. (Jeffers can be his backup until he actually hits for more than a couple weeks every other month.) We aren't "stuck" with Sanchez at all; he is a FA after the season. There should be enough money with Sanchez's coin off the payroll to pursue Carlos Rodon seriously as well. If you land him, a Rodon, Gray (who is under team control), Mahle, Maeda, and Ryan rotation with Winder, Ober, Varland, SWR, Paddack, and maybe even Dobber as depth/long pen arms seems more than competitive. (Also, Balazovic is looking recovered from his injury with some recent domination.) Maybe look for extra help for the 'pen, but as noted, we are better off than last spring already. Third area is supposed to be a strength, outfield. It is not a strength; for the second straight year we have had a parade of marginal players filling in for the eternally injured. Maybe the shift things helped, but one of my personal favorites, Max Kepler, looks like a fourth outfielder. He can't hit consistently (hasn't for years now), and he can't stay healthy. Byron can't stay healthy enough to play outfield for even a half season. Larnach and Kirilloff might be back and healthy, or they might not. Celestino still looks like AAAA level. Some nights he makes me say Wow! and others (especially when running the bases) he makes me say 'wow' (in pain). Bottom line, they should probably go after a starting outfielder with a good bat tool. And give some of their top minor leaguers (like Wallner) and Gordon every chance to knock Max out of the starting lineup.
  2. PatPfund
    Wow. Couldn't disagree more. Frustrating? Only in that most of us cared about the team deep into the season (and it is exceedingly clear now that a title is unlikely). That is what being a fan is about; following your team through the highs and lows, and living the pain and glory along with that team. Want to save on frustration? Never listen/watch a game live again; just stream complete Wins out of the MLB.tv archive, and you'll never need to be frustrated or surprised again. Also, stop following a team, and just hop from bandwagon to bandwagon watching only winners. Do that, and I guarantee you'll be frustration free, right next to this year's eventual champions, and hanging with the champions for the rest of your life. And pretty freaking bored. This team did NOT come into the season with great expectations; yep, picked for second in the division, but a distant second. They played in the division lead most of the season. They had things work (Miranda, Gordon, Larnach for a while), got some solid play from expected players, had lots of adversity, some serious peaks and valleys in management (seriously, how many roster-days have we played short, because the Twins carried hurt players who should have been on the IL, and I've seen Little League teams run the bases better). But the result isn't frustration, it is joy, pain, regret, glory, humility. The reason you follow a team.
  3. PatPfund
    We have two "offensive" catchers who can't hit, but play defense like bat-first catchers. Use some of the Correa money to get Wilson Contreras. Or failing that, bring up one of the 'guys playing other positions' (not sure why that is a problem as long as they hit substantially better than what we have). They might get something out of Jeffers still, but they certainly shouldn't plan around it.
  4. PatPfund
    I love Miranda, believe he belongs in the Rookie Top Ten, and believe that like his hitting, his defense is getting better. He is a true gem. But Twins all-time rookie? Tony Oliva's rookie year (1964) he hit .323, scored 109 runs, stole a dozen bags, hit 32 HR and 43 doubles, knocked in 94, won the AL batting title, finished fourth in AL MVP, and won ROY. (Then followed it up with another batting title the next year, the first time anyone in MLB history had won the batting title in each of their first two years.) That's a high rookie bar that nobody else in this franchise has ever come close to clearing.
  5. PatPfund
    Moran is a major league arm with a fatal (if he doesn't fix it) control problem. He's already walked his way off the MLB roster a couple times, and it isn't a small sample thing; he's wild wherever he pitches. I don't really see why it would be any different with another call up until whatever mechanical/head issue is addressed. I'm sure they'll give Jovani another shot this year, but frankly I'd rather see Peacock or Schulfer or Sisk. (They might not be better, but I haven't seen them walk the bases full like I have Moran.)
  6. PatPfund
    Well... I'm old. I actually listen to the radio on the radio (in my car, or on my old transistor in the garage or yard, in bed on my clock radio, or in the kitchen on my antique vacuum tube radio). In Mankato that would be AM 1420 or FM 102.7. Ditch the apps and listen to the game for free. And free of software and its glitches. (Or don't. It's a free country!)
  7. PatPfund
    Maybe Rocco reads Twins Daily! Smeltzer had an honest to goodness long relief stint tonight (and did well at it).
  8. PatPfund
    Bundy isn't most pitchers. He can easily throw 100 pitches, but for once I agree with Rocco. Against potent lineups, the 88 mph fastball starts to look like batting practice the third time around. There is a reason there are VERY FEW pitchers in MLB throwing that speed. Love the guts, but it only gets you so far.
  9. PatPfund
    The OP is dead on target. You can argue back and forth about whether Sands should be the person (small sample recent outings show maybe?), but as Cody pointed out, there have been several capable long relievers on the roster this year, and none of them have gotten consistent long outings. Despite the built-in need for long RP to pair with Archer (and to a lesser extent, Bundy). And the big problem with under-usage (beyond wearing the 'pen to tatters with 3-5 of them pitching per game) is you destroy the ability of a long RP to stay "long". It is the reverse of 'stretching' out a pitcher. This pretty much falls on the manager. Rocco has his strengths, but it feels like he doesn't really get the pitching part, so he goes with a regular plan of pulling people after two times through the order, and mix/matching single inning folks the rest of the way, probably based on some data, but missing the balance of who is rolling, who is not, and what the load may be over several days. When we don't have off days, you end up with fried RPs along with clearly irritating his lead starter. (In Rocco's defense, though, I think Archer has only thrown back to back 5 inning efforts once, and ended up on the IL immediately thereafter, and he consistently gets wilder as his outings go on. He really isn't physically up to carrying more innings, which in turn calls for a long RP. Plus, after Gray walked two in the 7th the other day, his pitch count was 92; even Sonny seemed to acknowledge it was time by saying he appreciated the chance to pitch into the 7th and he'd do better with the next opportunity.)
  10. PatPfund
    I was very interested last spring with the promises to be up by around the beginning of July. Even checked in. But no baseball means no dice for me. If the Twins are on it next spring, I can see going month to month for a bit. Though maybe not. Radio works, doesn't lock me down to locations/devices, and I can watch archive games if I do MLB.tv
  11. PatPfund
    Correa could opt back in, depending on how things finish (I once was 99% "No way", but that might be down to 80% now). He has to make that call within 5 days of the end of the World Series, and the decision will have major implications for the rest of the Twins' off-season plans. His opt-in is the only way any of the OP players are on next year's MN roster. The rest obviously help any MLB team, but... A. This regime is not spending that kind of long-term money on people in the back-half of their prime... or really anybody. B. The team has bigger needs elsewhere. We don't really need a backup catcher; we have three of those right now (our bat-first catchers hit about the same as our defensive catcher). What we need is a starting catcher. With some of their freed up money, a run at Wilson Contreras would be nice. So would at least one more SP, though I'd look more for this FO to find one in the trade market instead of getting into a bidding war. (However, we do potentially get Ober, Maeda, and Winder back along with Paddack in June.) Re-signing Fulmer and another solid relief arm would also be nice. If AK's recovery looks doubtful, I'd expect the Twins to go with Miranda/Arraez at 1B, and then bring back Urshela at 3B.
  12. PatPfund
    Fair assessment. If Winder, Ober, and Maeda all come back healthy in 2-3 weeks, my hope is the Twins talk to Archer about the bullpen. Yes, I know he doesn't want that, but he also isn't going to turn into some sort of playoff weapon (as the Twins hoped); at least not as a starter. He might have the stuff that pumps up effectively for an inning or so. If he says 'no', well... I'd rather have any of the returning three opening ball games than Archer at this point. (Meaning I'd waive good-bye to him along with Pagan, and an option for Sands/Megill to make room if needed. With thanks for doing most of what they hoped for.)
  13. PatPfund
    Gray is an easy option call (yes). I'd open talks with him, but not be too quick to extend. (He's not young, and has his own injury history.) It cracks me up there is still Sano hope out there. The OPS+ cited in the OP (117?) would be great for a shortstop, but for a poor fielding 1B/DH it's pretty mediocre. Plus (like all of Miguel-follower stats) it is a career total, which totally obscures the fact that Sano has only had 3 (out of eight) good seasons; 2015, 2017, and 2019. He was terrible in 2020, terrible when it mattered last year before padding his stats in garbage time, and terrible again this year. He's 29, has the sort of big body that doesn't age well in this game, and has an injury history that suggests he is not likely to buck those odds. Buy him out, and offer him a minor league deal if he's floating around in February. Bundy is actually easy. No way you do the option, but for a guy who wanted him gone in May, he's sort of won me over a bit with his ability to wring the max out of meager stuff. I'd buy him out on good terms, and tell him to stay in touch, and see about adding him late (or talking bullpen). But don't get into a bidding war, or pay $8-9 million for a aging guy with a 87 mph fastball. When Winder and Ober get back in a few weeks (if not before) the Twins should talk to Archer about moving to the 'pen. He might have the stuff to dominate an inning, but as someone who used to like this project, he simply hasn't gained any length over the season, and he really isn't a starter right now; he's an opener. If he won't flex, I don't see him back. I could even see him being released this season. Of more immediate concern, though, Winder, Ober, and Maeda will need roster spots. Pagan might be one. I could see Archer being another. And Megill a third.
  14. PatPfund
    They will have more players (hopefully) healthy, but not Paddack (probably more June-ish '23), and Lewis would have to be way ahead of schedule to be playing in the spring. Kirilloff's surgery is radical for a baseball player; he may be back at full strength or never play again. Dobnak hasn't had a healthy season in two years, so I'm not holding my breath. Twins also (possibly) lose Fulmer to FA, and I don't see either Bundy or Archer back (unless he wants to try bullpen work). A healthy Alcala probably makes the team, and I'm fine if Stashak, Coulombe, and Romero don't. Nobody is likely to claim them (Cotton and Smeltzer are probably better than all of them, and have both cleared waivers this season), and they can figure it out with the Saints or another organization. Pretty sure Byron will be in CF and Kepler in RF unless something radical happens (they are under contract) with Larnach front-runner for LF. Garlick is a nice role player, but if he is starting everyday this isn't a very good team.
  15. PatPfund
    Great piece! You have good choices, but personally, I’d want Larnach back on offense, then Ober, Winder, Maeda in any order. The Jeffers bat was starting to make a difference late, but Leon makes that loss much less with better defense than either Sanchez or Jeffers.
  16. PatPfund
    Actually, that is precisely what you do. Prospect status is temporary, you either bust, or graduate to the majors (nobody currently ranks Miranda among the Twins' top prospects, because he is no longer a prospect; he is, in fact, a former top prospect). The more accurate example is "Former U of M student becomes millionaire."
  17. PatPfund
    Bummed out. Clearly some major talent, but most of the potential wasted due to injuries (some truly random, but a lot set up by his own admissions that fitness/diet wasn't a big priority in many offseasons). Don't know him enough to say for sure, but from the outside he looks like someone gifted with so much ability he just leaned on that rather than working to build on it. It can get you to the bigs, but talent plus work beats raw talent in the race to be elite. For sure, I think he fell in love with distance to the detriment of hitting (even with a clear example/mentor in Nelson Cruz), but that's not news. I also always thought the Twins did a major mis-service by not sending him down during his first regression. Nobody likes that, but sometimes you need to be benched, or get a chance to reset out of the spotlight to take the final step. But that's a guess, too. Maybe, despite the flash, he just wasn't good enough to stick, or too big to stay healthy. Definitely bummed out, though, because the potential was only touched in flashes.
  18. PatPfund
    Great piece. The last play was a bummer, but it doesn't overcast the week for me. The Twins made really good moves, the team should be stronger, and each of the adds has had one or more moments to shine. Cole Sands actually (finally?) looked like he might be a useful pitcher tonight, and the Twins played a possible playoff matchup quite well (something noted by the Jays TV crew) this weekend. Who knows how it will all shake out, but the Twins are already playing meaningful games about two months later than last year with a great chance of October baseball in Minnesota. This sort of chance is what baseball fans live for!
  19. PatPfund
    I guess you can repeat "interesting take" as much as you want, but the timeline is pretty public (the Twins acquire Kiner-Falefa; the Yankees contact the Twins about him immediately and eat Donaldson's money to get him, all on the weekend; the Twins are linked in Story rumors right away, because they now have payroll and need a shortstop; Boras sees the situation and contacts the Twins; the two sides work out a deal and Correa agrees mid-week). We weren't "trying" to dump JD's contract, we had done so before any Correa contact. Boras only made contact, because the Twins had freed up the money and entered the top-level SS market. So he didn't fall into our laps, the Twins took active steps to enter the premium SS market, and they got one. Not even my take. https://www.mlb.com/news/carlos-correa-road-to-signing-with-twins
  20. PatPfund
    Well. A few things. It's August, and one of the worst teams (the Twins) in the AL last year, a team whose season was already done at this point in 2021 is one of the better teams this year, and is in first place in the division (and has been most of the year). That's a win, not a fail. Nobody seems to remember that most of the offseason was wasted in the stupid lockout. Our front office, and the rest of MLB's did nothing for months, because they couldn't. Once the stupid lockout ended, no team was more active than the Twins, acquiring the best pitcher in our rotation, inking another who has probably made more starts than any other SP (though really Archer is more of an Opener), churning the closing spot to add an SP and RP, churning the catcher spot to land a SS, then churning the top of the payroll and acquiring arguably the top shortstop in baseball. So definitively NOT planning to fail. Or failing to plan since they had deals ready to roll ASAP. Can we just stop with the 'Correa fell in our laps' stuff? It just isn't true. The Twins used the Yankee interest in our new shortstop to dump Josh Donaldson's salary AND vacate the SS position precisely to jump into the top of the free agent SS market. Yep, they were targeting Story, but the ONLY reason Boras contacted the Twins is they had already done the work to make a deal with Carlos feasible. Without that work, Boras does not call, and if he did the Twins wouldn't have been able to afford him, and Correa is playing elsewhere. On the other hand, their pitching plans failed. Bundy pitches with more guts than Happ or Matty Shoe, but not really any more talent. Hard to say how much of last offseason's original plan was shredded by the stupid lockout, but if the Falvines haven't figured out to stop building around washed up castoff arms next year could register in the Fail category. But maybe we should enjoy this year, and not freak about next year until... next year?
  21. PatPfund
    The question of whether or not this is a team you push in a lot of 'future' chips to fix now is the key question. I think this past week has actually made it clearer; there is too much to fix with 'big' moves, and our ability to make both big and medium moves has been damaged. Winder's injury both takes out a possible #3-#4 starter, and/or a potent trade chip. Sano's trade value really is now zero. Kirilloff has both lost his trade value, and put giant question marks over his ability to cover the production hole that would open if you traded Miranda. Archer is regressing after moving from competent Opener to borderline starter, to hip issue, to weak Opener. Ryan is either in a doldrum, or scouts have figured out how to time his deceptive but not very fast fastball. Our pitching coach praised by our pitchers, quit mid-season. I still think we can win the division making minimal moves (crappy week, and still in first; three flawed teams duking it out). I also like our young core, and the way Palacios is hitting in St Paul (since he might be the critical SS bridge to Lewis next year). Winning in the playoffs, though, looks like it would now take two SPs (and one would have to be Gray-level or better), and probably a #4 type to replace Winder. Plus a couple RPs (one back end worthy). At inflated trade deadline prices, that is more that we can afford (maybe more than we even have). So I'd see if we could find an SP for something reasonable (Eovaldi from Boston?), and a Romo type reliever for cheap, and not trade Miranda or too many top prospects. Win the division, see if magic strikes in the playoffs, and build for next year with more reasonable offseason prices. (And hopefully take the lesson that being "in" on Rodon counts for nothing if you are then shipping big prospects to get him mid-year, when a bit more money could have had him months earlier.)
  22. PatPfund
    Truly awful. One of the most amazing things about the 8-5 triple play the Twins had against the White Sox is that for a change, the other team was stupider on the bases than the home nine. (I know it will never happen for several reasons, but it's too bad Molitor couldn't do some base-running drills in Spring Training. This team's running skills are so consistently bad it clearly gets back to coaching fundamentals, or the lack thereof.)
  23. PatPfund
    From someone who went all rant on your last piece, I really liked this. Good data, and effectively presented (reinforcing some general impressions I had, but the Jeffers graph in particular caught my attention. Longer upswing than I was giving him credit for.
  24. PatPfund
    What's crazy is people hyper-ventilating about the Rule 5 draft in July. The front office is savvy enough to figure it out, and no we won't be able to protect any player who might have a future MLB career, and no we don't have to, and no we shouldn't be basing any mid-season trade priorities on a 40-man "crunch". Trade to help the team; if that involves a front-line pitcher, then a few to several of these "crunch" pieces will be gone. (Miranda? Steer? Wallner? Canterino? SWR? All of them? You are not going to get a game-changing piece by trading table scraps.) And take a deep breath. The Twins minor league system is rated around 15th. Rule 5 players need to stay on the drafting team's roster the whole of the next season or be offered back. Unless he turns it around, is anybody thinking Sawyer Gibson-Long is MLB ready next year? Several mentioned CAN be exposed and probably won't get drafted the same way nobody claimed Smeltzer off waivers at the end of spring training. And yeah, I would not offer arbitration to any of Cotton/Coulombe/Romero/Garlick. They are interchangeable parts in MLB. If the Twins can't do better, then they won't BE better next year. And yeah, I get how a roster works. The point is, this is only a crisis if you try to manipulate things in-season. If you wait until after the season, it is simply the roster churn that happens every year. And after the season, many items now shifting all over the place will have set in place. (Ex: we'll actually know if SGL recovers enough to need protection rather than guessing 'what if'.)
  25. PatPfund
    @Major League Ready Say you need (well, want) 10 spots. At the end of the season, the contracts of Urshela, Sanchez, Thielbar, Duffey, Joe Smith, Garlick, Bundy, Cotton, and Coulombe expire. The Twins are HIGHLY unlikely to pick up Sano's option. So all of these are no longer on the 40-man unless/until resigned. You don't resign Urshela unless you trade Miranda (and Steer). It's possible they pitch a deal to Sanchez early depending on their catching plans. The rest are arms in one of the worst bullpens in the AL and Bundy. There is zero incentive to lock those slots down. So there are 8 spots assuming you sign Sanchez. Unless Dobnak shows he can pitch, they should waive him (but they'd have to eat money, so maybe not yet). They can remove Romero, though, so nine. Cano, Archer, Godoy, Strotman, and maybe Sands should prove more value, or they could be removed as well. Frankly Archer is going backward; unless he is open to a 'pen move, I don't want him back. Thats five more slots, so 14 total slots on the 40 man opened up. Finally, you do need to take some risks; if you fill your 40-man with players who are not MLB-ready next year, you limit your in-season moves. Rule 5 draftees are only lost if they can't stick on the drafting team's 40-man all next year. If you put marginal talent on the 40-man, you might lose them forever next spring when injuries mean you have to expose them to waivers. The Twins system is not highly rated, so take some chances (we get to pick, too). Trade if it helps, don't if you are just dumping prospects for middle-level RPs.
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